February 1, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Breakdown: Perhaps the most difficult aspect to building this bracket was finding that last No. 3 seed. Out of Purdue, Kansas State, Duke, Texas and West Virginia, it was clear that two of them would be No. 2 seeds and three would be No. 3 seeds, but there was no obvious choice to fill out that third line. Just like in the last projection, I went with New Mexico over Brigham Young and any other team — Wisconsin, Tennessee, Baylor, Temple, Ohio State, Georgia Tech — that might have had a claim.
The good thing is that none of those teams had a very strong claim at that spot. New Mexico was the choice because its five wins against top-50 teams was more than any other team that hadn’t been bracketed, except Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, which also have five. New Mexico’s record (20-3), combined with a head-to-head win over Brigham Young, a six-game winning streak and a 10th ranking in my seeding model put the Lobos over the top. I’m not sure what the Selection Committee would do if presented this scenario, but the only other teams I could see them bracketing here are BYU, who — again — has lost to New Mexico head-to-head, or Ohio State, if the Buckeyes were given a complete pass for losses suffered when Evan Turner was injured. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Baylor, Billy Donovan, Brigham Young, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Creighton, Dayton, Demetri McCamey, DePaul, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Illinois State, Indiana, Jimmy Butler, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rutgers, Sean Miller, South Carolina, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple, Tennesse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State, William & Mary, Wisconsin
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January 29, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Notes: First, automatic bids for each conference are determined by conference record with tiebreakers broken by rank in our BTI model, not by head-to-head or other conference tiebreakers. Of course, every conference except for the Ivy League determines its ultimate automatic bid with a tournament, so conference tiebreakers really don’t matter much for our purposes. Second, there is one potential regular-season rematch in the first two rounds, and that’s in the South where Kentucky and Connecticut could meet. There was already a Big East team in the other three spots where a No. 9 seed could go, and the priority is keeping teams on their true seedlines over avoiding rematches.
Breakdown: In the end, I guess all of this was just bluster. The point of this bracket projection — even in January — is to accurately determine what the Selection Committee would do if it had to select and seed the field today. With that as the overriding standard, I found myself unable to move Texas or Duke ahead of Kentucky for the last No. 1 seed. If I wanted to make a bracket of what should happen, we’d have an entirely different projection. UK is still just 13th in the BTI seeding model, but that is a seeding model based on an entire season of play and pro-rated for what’s happened so far. This is a bracket based on less than three months of play, and so sometimes we’re left with guesswork. My best guess is that Kentucky would get the nod over Duke and Texas right now. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged A.J. Ogilvy, ACC, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Monday, Big Ten, Boston College, Brigham Young, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colonial, Connecticut, Courtney Fortson, Dayton, DePaul, Duke, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia, Illinois, Ivy League, Jeffrey Taylor, Jermaine Beal, John Jenkins, Jon Leuer, Kansas, Kansas State, Ken Pomeroy, Kentucky, LaSalle, Louisville, LSU, Maryland, Massachusetts, Matt Painter, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Rick Barnes, Rick Stansbury, San Diego State, Sean Miller, SEC, Seth Greenberg, South Carolina, South Florida, St. Joseph's, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Texas, Texas A&M, Travis Ford, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Virgina Tech, Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, William & Mary, Wisconsin, Xavier
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January 27, 2010 –
by Brendon
A 2-6 stretch from mid-December to mid-January took Seton Hall off many NCAA Tournament radars, but the Pirates are proving that they are good enough to compete for a berth. With two straight wins, SHU is back to 3-4 in conference, and the schedule lightens up — a little — from here on out. In my preseason projections, I picked Seton Hall to make the NCAA Tournament, and there’s no reason to back off that now, even if it might be as the eighth or ninth Big East team in the field.
Right now, the Pirates are just on the outside looking in — fifth out based on my at-large prediction model, but here are some reasons why Seton Hall is good enough to hear its name called on March 14.
Depth: Coach Bobby Gonzalez always had kids who could play and play hard, he just never had enough of them. This season, he has 10 guys whom he’s comfortable playing at various times, and a solid eight-man rotation that could change depending on the opponent. The addition of three transfers — Herb Pope, Jeff Robinson and Keon Lawrence — and two freshmen — Jamel Jackson and Ferrakohn Hall — has allowed Gonzalez to keep his best players healthy and rested. That has helped Seton Hall down the stretch of games and should help down the stretch of this season. Read More »
Posted in Big East
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Tagged Bobby Gonzalez, Brandon Walters, Dominique Jones, Evan Turner, Ferrakohn Hall, Georgetown, Herb Pope, Jamel Jackson, Jeff Robinson, Jeremy Hazell, John Garcia, Jon Leuer, Keon Lawrence, Louisville, Mike Davis, Pittsburgh, Providence, Quincy Pondexter, Scottie Reynolds, Seth Davis, Seton Hall, South Florida, Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin
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January 22, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Breakdown: This is our first projection of the season, as I like to wait until most teams have at least four conference games under their belts. It’s not until about now that you can really get a good gauge on a team. Everything up until now is primarily guesswork. Even so, there is a lot on this bracket that will look strange come March. The question is what. The answers will be revealed over the next seven weeks. One predictions: the Colonial Athletic Association will have fewer than three teams in the field.
For a frame of reference, in our first projection last season on Jan. 25, Kentucky and Florida were No. 6 seeds, and Georgetown was a No. 7; none of those three made the NCAAs. On the other hand, the Nos. 1-5 seeds all made the NCAAs. The four teams that ended the season as No. 1 seeds were 1, 1, 2 and 3 in our first projection. Ten of the teams seeded on the first four lines of last year’s first projection ended up as top-four seeds by March. So, there is perhaps more stability than one might expect. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colonial, Connecticut, Dayton, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northeastern, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Pac-10, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, SEC, South Carolina, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, William & Mary, Wisconsin, Xavier
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January 20, 2010 –
by Brendon
It was nice to see Purdue emerge from its “freefall” on Tuesday night with an impressive performance in a win over Illinois. It wasn’t nice because I’m rooting for the Boilermakers but nice because the performances of JaJuan Johnson, Kelsey Barlow and John Hart will hopefully quiet some of the shrill voices chiming in on Purdue’s shortcomings after a three-game losing streak.
Around the college basketball world on Saturday, folks were wringing their hands about the Boilermakers’ losing streak. SI’s Seth Davis called it a freefall, the folks on ESPN questioned the Final Four pedigree of Purdue, and people on the Big Ten Network could not get through a sentence without bemoaning the effect of Lewis Jackson’s injury on the Boilermakers.
As often happens, despite all the analysis, the pundits danced around the truth while missing it. The first issue is putting too much meaning into the streak. Purdue played three strong teams, two on the road. A 1-2 record in that stretch would not have been out of the ordinary, so 0-3 shouldn’t have been cause for panic. Several famous teams of recent vintage have only been saved from the same fate by friendly scheduling. Read More »
Posted in Big Ten
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Tagged Al Nolen, Big Ten, Chris Kramer, College of Charleston, Colorado, Florida, Georgetown, Illinois, JaJuan Johnson, James Madison, Joe Mazzulla, John Hart, Kansas, Kelsey Barlow, Lewis Jackson, Matt Painter, Minnesota, North Carolina, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Robbie Hummel, Rutgers, South Carolina, St. John's, UCLA, West Virginia, Wisconsin
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January 13, 2010 –
by Brendon
Four of the six major conferences were in action on Tuesday, and each league’s slate featured a game with two teams that have legitimate hopes of a trip to the NCAA Tournament. Three of the games were close down the stretch, and one wasn’t. All four taught us something about each team.
Ohio State 70, Purdue 66: The Buckeyes’ win at Purdue was remarkable and necessary. Down 15, Ohio State was eight minutes from falling to 1-4 in Big Ten play thanks to Robbie Hummel’s 29-point, first-half outbreak. Instead, Evan Turner made Chris Kramer and Purdue — one of the best defenders and best defensive teams in the nation respectively — look like something far less than that.
|
Poss |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Off Reb |
FTR |
| Ohio State |
65 |
1.07 |
0.561 |
0.246 |
0.360 |
0.306 |
| Purdue |
65 |
1.01 |
0.518 |
0.215 |
0.286 |
0.143 |
Turner played all 40 minutes, scoring 32 points and pulling down nine rebounds. Neither Turner nor his coach, Thad Matta, believe that the sophomore is at full strength after missing most of seven games with a scary back injury, but the point-forward was plenty good enough to help OSU get to 2-3 in conference. Read More »
Posted in Big Ten, Game of the Night
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Tagged Big Ten, Chris Kramer, David Lighty, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Robbie Hummel, Thad Matta, West Virginia, William Buford, Wisconsin
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December 30, 2009 –
by Brendon
The Big Ten opened conference play on Tuesday night with a pair of matchups between teams aiming for the top of the league and teams hoping to avoid its very bottom. The top teams one, though without the ease one might have expected.
You can forgive Purdue for its sloppy start against an Iowa team, which — in my mother’s words — stinks to high heaven. With undefeated West Virginia ahead on Friday in West Lafayette, the Boilermakers looked disinterested in a first half that saw them make just 11-of-30 shots, including 1-of-6 3-pointers. Still, Iowa led by just one at the half, and the handwriting was on the wall for the second half, as Purdue pulled away for a 67-56 win.
| Team |
Poss |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Reb |
FTR |
| Purdue |
60 |
1.11 |
0.528 |
0.116 |
0.281 |
0.208 |
| Iowa |
60 |
0.93 |
0.471 |
0.265 |
0.344 |
0.157 |
Robbie Hummel and E’Twaune Moore had hot second halves, but what might have been most surprising was JaJuan Johnson’s indifferent night. The junior had just six points and no free-throw attempts against one of major conference’s worst interior defenses. Johnson’s quiet night made no difference though, since Iowa couldn’t hold on to the ball on offense or stop the rest of the Boilers on defense. Considering the strengths and weaknesses of these two teams, Purdue’s far superior percentage on 2-pointers (52.4 to 42.9) and nine fewer turnovers were as predictable as they were devastating. Read More »
Posted in Big Ten, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Al Nolen, Andrew Jones, Big Ten, Blake Hoffarber, Colton Iverson, Damian Johnson, David Jackson, Devoe Joseph, E'Twaune Moore, Illinois, Iowa, JaJuan Johnson, Jeff Brooks, Keaton Grant, Lawrence Westbrook, Matt Painter, Miam (Fla.), Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Portland, Purdue, Ralph Sampson, Robbie Hummel, Royce White, Talor Battle, Texas A&M, Tubby Smith, West Virginia, Wisconsin
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December 2, 2009 –
by Brendon
The ACC-Big Ten Challenge is closing its 11th edition Wednesday night, and the conference from the Midwest has yet to win it. Five times — including last year — the Big Ten has come up just a game short. Someday the National League will lose the All-Star Game to the American League again, and someday the ACC will fall to the Big Ten. Could that day be today? The oddsmakers put it at just about even money.
The two conferences enter the last day of the challenge with three wins each. The Big Ten took a 3-0 lead in the series when it swept the 7:00 games on Tuesday night, Purdue pulling away from Wake Forest, 70-59, and Northwestern going down to Raleigh and schooling NC State, 65-53. This after Penn State squeaked past Virginia in Charlottesville on Monday night.
The ACC, though, is a resilient league, and the later tip-offs on Tuesday all went its way. Maryland visited hapless Indiana and won by 12. North Carolina hosted Michigan State in a rematch of April’s national title game, and the Tar Heels prevailed again behind Ed Davis, 89-82. Iowa hung with Virginia Tech for most of Tuesday’s final game, but the Hokies slipped away at the end, 70-64. Read More »
Posted in ACC, Big Ten, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged ACC, ACC-Big Ten Challenge, Al Skinner, Alabama, Big Ten, Bo Ryan, Boston College, Bradley, Brian Zoubek, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Duke, Ed Davis, Evan Turner, Florida State, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Marquette, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rakim Sanders, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Utah, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Wisconsin, Wofford
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