Bracket Junkie: Provisional final bracket breakdown

March 14, 2010 – by Brendon

Breakdown: As many of you have already seen here, our provisional final bracket is up. After working the Big East Tournament this week and getting literally no sleep to do this projection overnight, my brain is fried. I just spent the last hour checking every single four-team pod to make sure there are no rematches. At last, there are not — I think. Due to fatigue, I am going to keep this short. You can find the last 10 in, last 10 our and conference breakdown at the link above.

 

Moving In as At-large: Minnesota (UTEP and Utah State ate up two at-large bids)

 

Moving Out as At-large: Florida, Illinois, Rhode Island

 

On the Bubble: As with most people, our breakdown came down primarily to five teams — Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Florida, Illinois and Mississippi State — for two spots. We also tried to give fair consideration to Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Wichita State, Memphis, Mississippi, William & Mary and UAB, among others. At the end, though, in came down to those five. Read More »

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Bracket Junkie: Final-ish projection

March 14, 2010 – by Brendon

Note: This projection was last updated at 12:18 p.m. EDT to address any issues with first-round rematches of regular-season matchups, conference balancing and hosting restrictions. The only seed changes were Virginia Tech and Utah State being placed back on their natural seed lines.

 

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Notes

 

1. The most important thing to note is that this is our final bracket if the four remaining games go to the favorites. We’re projecting Duke, Kentucky, Temple and Ohio State as winners, and we will update this bracket around 3:30 p.m. EDT if one of those first three don’t happen — not sure there will be a need if Ohio State loses but perhaps. The most obvious update will be Mississippi State grabbing a bid with a win over UK.

 

2. I will have a brief breakdown in a few hours after I pour water on my eyes and have a chance to breathe — it’s been a long week at MSG and working on this bracket.

 

3. What a crazy last two days it’s been for the bubble, huh?

 

4. The “OSU” that was moved down one seed line was Oklahoma State not Ohio State.

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Saturday bubble update on eve of announcement

March 13, 2010 – by Brendon

New Locks: California, Georgia Tech, San Diego State, UNLV

 

Last 10 In:

 

1. Rhode Island (last in)
2. Illinois
3. Washington
4. Florida
5. Virginia Tech
6. San Diego State
7. Missouri
8. Wake Forest
9. Louisville
10. Georgia Tech

 

Last 10 Out:

 

1. Seton Hall (last out)
2. Mississippi
3. Mississippi State
4. Wichita State
5. Memphis
6. Minnesota
7. UAB
8. William & Mary
9. Cincinnati
10. South Florida

 

Breakdown: A few bubble teams finally took their destiny into their own hands on Friday. Georgia Tech, UNLV and San Diego State almost certainly nailed down bids with wins over ranked opponents, and Illinois is now likely to make the field as well. Those three Tech, UNLV, SDSU and California have been added as locks after Friday victories.

 

That leaves five at-large spots still up for grabs. Florida, Washington, Illinois and Virginia Tech are favorites to get four of those five spots, but any of those teams could be spilled if bubble teams still alive win today or if an at-large bid is swallowed up by a conference upset.

 

As far as bubble teams still with a shot to play their way in, Rhode Island, Minnesota and Mississippi State are the three to watch on Saturday. I have the Rams as the last team in right now, and they play Temple in the Atlantic 10 semifinals at 1 p.m ET; Minnesota takes on Purdue at 4 p.m. in the Big Ten semis; and Mississippi State gets Vanderbilt at 3:15 p.m. in the SEC semis. Wins by those teams would make them hard to keep out.

 

There are also a few conference tournaments where bids could be swallowed up. The Conference USA final is just underway with Houston taking on UTEP. A win by the Cougars over regular-season champ UTEP would surely eat up an at-large bid, as the Miners are almost certainly in. In the WAC, New Mexico State will try to upset Utah State at 10 p.m. The good news for bubble teams is that the host Nevada Wolfpack lost to NMSU, so Utah State won’t have to battle against an adversarial crowd.

 

In the ACC, two teams — Miami and North Carolina State — are still alive, and either would steal an at-large bid with two more wins. Duke and Georgia Tech will be heavy favorites in the ACC semifinals at 1:30 and 3:30 p.m., but the Canes and Wolfpack are dangerous enough to make it interesting.

 

I figure that out of Mississippi State, Minnesota and Rhode Island winning and one of the bids getting swallowed up by a spoiler, at least one of those will happen to secure that last open at large spot. If none of those happen, it would bring a Seton Hall, Mississippi, Wichita State or Memphis back into play. If more than one happens, Florida and Virginia Tech beware; and Illinois and Washington better win today to make it certain.

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Bracket Junkie: Will any teams play their way in?

March 12, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Note: Teams deemed at least 98-percent likely to make the NCAA Tournament are in bold below. Three new teams earned their bold tags this week — Notre Dame and perhaps a couple of controversial teams, UTEP and Utah State. Even though Florida, Virginia Tech and California are ahead of locks like Wake Forest and Missouri in my S-curve, they could all still lose. I don’t yet trust the committee to definitely put all three in if any were to lose today, though I’d bet they will all make it regardless. That leaves eight bids up for grabs, a number that could still shrink with conference-tournament upsets. Read More »

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Bracket Junkie: Welcoming four new teams to the field

March 8, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Note: Teams deemed at least 98-percent likely to make the NCAA Tournament are in bold. Three new at-large teams earned their bold tags over the weekend — Louisville, Oklahoma State and Wake Forest. Notre Dame and Virginia Tech just missed.

 

Moving In as At-large: Arizona State, Mississippi, San Diego State, Washington

 

Moving Out as At-large: Georgia Tech, Illinois, Rhode Island, UAB

 

Moving In as Automatic: Vermont (America East), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)

 

Moving Out as Automatic: Stony Brook (America East), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Coastal Carolina (Big South)

 

On the Bubble: There was a lot of shuffling around the bubble this weekend with several teams suffering near-devastating losses. Georgia Tech and Illinois both had blowout losses at home. The loss for the Yellow Jackets is their third in five and fifth in seven, and more importantly, it puts them at 7-9 in conference. To me, Illinois only looked like an NCAA Tournament team for about a week all season — when it beat Wisconsin and Michigan State. We’ll see if that 10-8 conference record is enough to override losing five of six and dropping games to Georgia, Bradley and Utah out of conference. Rhode Island lost its fifth of seven against 18-loss UMass in Amherst on Saturday. That will be hard to overcome. Finally, UAB needed to win one of its two tough games this week, but the Blazers lost both by a total of seven points, including a 52-50 win at C-USA champ UTEP on Saturday. Read More »

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Bracket Junkie: Bubble squalor nine days out

March 5, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Notes: Ohio State was moved from Milwaukee to Providence, and Pittsburgh was moved from Providence to Milwaukee so that Brigham Young could be placed in a pod where the Cougars would be able to avoid a Sunday game. This is the first time I’ve had to move pod assignments because of Brigham Young, and I hope it’s the last. Also, in the conference bid breakdowns, I am going to put teams I consider locks for the NCAA Tournament in bold. My definition of a lock is a team that could lose out and would still be at least 98-percent likely to get in. Right now, I have 31 teams as locks plus 22 other bids accounted for by conference champions. That leaves 12 spots still up for grabs, though Oklahoma State and Louisville are just about locked in.

 

Bracketing Challenges: Kansas slips just past Syracuse and into the top overall seed position after defeating Kansas State on Wednesday. This is very close, however, and the top overall seed will likely come down to who goes further in their conference tournaments. Kentucky could also be in the mix if it wins the SEC Tournament and neither Kansas nor Syracuse wins its conference tournament.

 

I don’t see how Duke is not still a No. 1 seed. The Blue Devils have three top-25 wins, same as Kentucky; and nine top-50 wins, four more than Kentucky. Of course, Duke has three more losses than the Wildcats, but is it possible that the difference in losses can be found in the difference between Kentucky’s 41st-ranked strength of schedule and Duke’s seventh-ranked one? Yet, Duke is on the No. 2 seed line for some people, and Kentucky is firmly ensconced as a No. 1. Interesting. The Blue Devils’ grip on a top seed is not firm, and a slip-up in the conference tournament could combine with a conference tournament championship for any of a half-dozen teams to knock Duke off the line, but right now, I don’t find a compelling argument against Duke.

 

As a whole, I really feel comfortable with the way I’ve seeded these teams. There are some tricky seedings on lines four through seven, but — with the exception of the teams I moved up or down for conference balancing, most of the seeds “feel” right. Many of you may disagree with that assessment, and feel free to voice your differences in the comments section or via e-mail. Nine days to go until Selection Sunday!

 

Moving In as At-large: Memphis, Rhode Island

 

Moving Out as At-large: Connecticut, Dayton

 

Moving In as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)

 

Moving Out as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

 

On the Bubble: Though I like the seeding for this projection, the bubble is an absolute mess. Any of the last five in could reasonably be left out. The problem is finding the teams to replace them. Illinois has lost four of five and still can’t manage to find its way out of the field. Rhode Island dropped four of five before it vaulted back in with a comfortable home win over Charlotte. Memphis enters the field for the first time after a road win over UAB, but the Blazers maintain their spot thanks to a strong non-conference performance and an 11-4 record in the Conference USA. Saint Mary’s hasn’t played since Saturday, and that was more than good enough to stay in the field. Read More »

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Bracket Junkie: UND’s big week gives the Big East nine

March 1, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Bracketing Challenges: Ideally, one would like to avoid any recent NCAA Tournament or regular-season rematches in the first two rounds of the Tournament. This is not a hard and fast rule, though, as Gonzaga and Indiana were matched up early in two consecutive tournaments (2006 and 2007). In this bracket, Illinois and Vanderbilt are set up for a potential regular-season rematch in the second round. To change this would require moving teams a seed line up or down, and the NCAA Tournament committee should be more committed to keeping teams on their true seed line rather than avoiding potential second-round rematches. The NCAA doesn’t reveal which teams were moved from their true seed line, so we don’t know for sure how common this practice is.

 

The two primary seeding challenges were at the ends of the No. 2 and No. 4 seed lines. Villanova got the nod over New Mexico mainly because it’s hard for me to see a Mountain West team gaining a No. 2 seed without a highly impressive non-conference profile and as long as there are other teams with legitimate cases. New Mexico defeated Cal, Texas A&M and Dayton out of conference but is lacking a top win to earn a No. 2 seed. Ohio State may get that last No. 2 in some projections. At the end of the No. 4 seed line, Michigan State edged out Tennessee, with MSU’s play without Kalin Lucas serving as the tiebreaker.

 

Moving In as At-large: Notre Dame, Saint Mary’s

 

Moving Out as At-large: Rhode Island, San Diego State

 

Moving In as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Quinnipiac (Northeast), North Texas (Sun Belt)

 

Moving Out as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Robert Morris (Northeast), Troy (Sun Belt)

 

On the Bubble: After defeating Pittsburgh and Georgetown in a matter of days, Notre Dame jumps into the field and does so with room to spare. It is arguable whether UND deserves to be ahead of Virginia Tech in the last-10-in pecking order, but the Irish are clearly ahead of Illinois, Saint Mary’s and Dayton. And as for VaTech, Notre Dame has a 3-0 edge in wins over RPI top-25 teams. Connecticut stays in despite blowing the lead at home to Louisville on Sunday. That gives the Big East nine teams, which would be a record. I still think it’s unlikely that the Big East will get nine on the key date — March 14. Mid-major upsets in conference tournaments and teams and Big East teams around the bubble knocking each other off — Notre Dame still has Connecticut and Marquette left to play — figure to cut the total to eight eventually. Right now, though, I’m convinced that all nine would get in. Read More »

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Bracket Junkie: Big Ten injuries likely to affect seeds

February 26, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Bracketing Challenges: I’ll discuss the biggest challenge — finding the final at-large team — in the “On the Bubble” section below. As far as seeding challenges, the Big Ten’s penchant for major injuries is causing a lot of ambiguity. Injuries to Purdue’s Robbie Hummel, Ohio State’s Evan Turner and Michigan State’s Kalin Lucas are all likely to affect their teams’ seeding. In this projection, Purdue gets bumped down to a No. 2 seed after word that Hummel will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL suffered at Minnesota on Wednesday. Lucas is back now, of course, but Michigan State lost the game that Lucas was injured in, the game he missed and the game in which he came back. I think the Spartans are being given too large a benefit of the doubt, as MSU lost by 18 to Wisconsin in the game in which Lucas was injured and by 12 at home to Purdue in the game in which he returned, but they move from a No. 6 to a No. 5 because of that injury. Finally, Ohio State lost three of six when Turner was injured, but is 12-3 since his return. OSU gets a bump from a No. 5 to a No. 3. It’s educated guesswork at this point.

 

Moving In as At-large: (none)

 

Moving Out as At-large: (none)

 

Moving In as Automatic: (none)

 

Moving Out as Automatic: (none)

 

On the Bubble: This was the toughest time I’ve had this season filling out the field. Thirty-three of the 34 at-large bids were easy to find, but the last team proved elusive. My model showed only five teams with a legitimate case — Charlotte, Cincinnati, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State and Seton Hall. Charlotte and Cincy actually rated out highest, but SDSU’s strong RPI (37) and recent play put the Aztecs in. The Bearcats continue to have an underrated profile thanks to non-conference wins over Maryland and Vanderbilt. Their four wins against RPI top-50 teams — which includes a sweep of UConn — are more than any other team under consideration. With wins over Gonzaga and Kansas out of conference, Arizona squeaked in last season despite losing five of its last six, including a first-round Pac-10 Tournament loss after a 9-9 conference season. Cincinnati could be this year’s Arizona, only with a finish that’s easier for the committee to stomach. Read More »

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