ACC Week in Review: Wake Forest starts strong behind Aminu

In sum: There wasn’t much in the way of drama in the first week of play for ACC teams. The league, as a whole, went 14-0, and only four of those victories were by a margin of fewer than 20 points. Perhaps it’s a surprise that two of those four such wins were by North Carolina. On Sunday, 12 3-pointers helped keep Valparaiso close against the Tar Heels, but UNC’s 62 percent shooting from inside was too much for the Crusaders to overcome.

 

Team of the week: Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons had a pair of impressive wins this weekend, starting Friday night with a 76-56 victory over Oral Roberts, a traditional power in the Summit League, and the coaches’ pick to finish second this year. On Sunday, Wake throttled East Carolina on the road, 89-58. Al-Farouq Aminu has emerged with the departures of James Johnson and Jeff Teague. After scoring 25 points and grabbing 13 boards against ORU, he had 23 points and nine boards against ECU. Read More »


Predicting many future events in one large analysis

Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:

 

ACC
Big 12
Big East
Big Ten
Pac-10
SEC
Mid-Majors

 

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

 

ACC

 

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »


ACC has depth, but will anyone help out UNC come March?

2008-09 in review: A conference that once dominated March has, of late, become a league with one team that dominates March while 11 other teams sit in their dorm rooms and watch. For the third straight season, North Carolina was the only ACC team to reach a regional final. Duke became the only team not named “North Carolina” to make the Sweet 16 since 2006, but the Blue Devils were brusquely dismissed by Final Four-bound Villanova. ACC teams not from Chapel Hill have just a 9-16 NCAA Tournament record in the last three tournaments.

 

Before continuing with the ACC negativity, I must first pay homage to the team of last season, the Tar Heels. UNC perhaps didn’t sail through the ACC season as smoothly as many assumed — in fact, Roy Williams’ team started ACC play 0-2 — but, by the time the NCAA Tournament rolled around, there was nothing stopping the Tar Heels. UNC’s offense was one of the best in recent memory, and only Oklahoma came close to slowing it down in the NCAA Tournament. Behind the inside-outside combination of Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough, and with Wayne Ellington hitting his stride — not to mention about six or seven other players who would start on any team in the country — North Carolina was hardly challenged in winning each NCAA Tournament game by at least 12.

 

At one point or another, three ACC teams besides UNC had the look of a top team last season, but each had their flaws revealed and saw their seasons end in embarrassing March departures. After a 16-0 start to the season, Clemson lost nine of its final 16, including a three-point loss to No. 10 seed Michigan in the first round of the NCAAs. Wake Forest also started 16-0, but the young Demon Deacons then lost five of nine, briefly righted the ship in early March, but fell in the first rounds of the ACC and NCAA tournaments, including a 15-point loss to No. 13 seed Cleveland State. Duke didn’t fall nearly as hard after its 18-1 start, though the Devils did lose four-of-six at one point. Duke was terrific in the ACC Tournament, winning the final over Florida State, and the Devils knocked off a tough Texas team to reach the Sweet 16 but fell by 23 in a wretched display of shooting in Boston.

 

Since the ACC expanded to 12 teams, the league has gone from the best conference in the NCAA Tournament to fifth, ahead of only the SEC among major conferences. This is how the conferences have improved or gotten worse in March since 2006, according to average NCAA Tournament Conference Score.

 

Conference 2000-05 2006-09 Diff
Pac-10 1.08 1.35 0.27
Big East 1.00 1.17 0.17
SEC 1.03 1.02 -0.01
Big 12 1.24 1.11 -0.14
Big Ten 1.33 1.11 -0.22
ACC 1.55 1.04 -0.51

 

It’s not as simple as saying that Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College have killed the ACC, but it’s part of it. While the Big East added top-20 programs in Louisville, Marquette and — they hope soon — Cincinnati, the ACC added something less valuable. Of course, Herb Sendek’s departure from Raleigh, which turned the Wolfpack program into a nightmare (15-33 in conference over the last three seasons) hasn’t helped. Four years is not a sample that will impress any scientist, but the basketball folks in the ACC have to at least worry if the league hasn’t lost its preeminence in exchange for not much gain at all on the football side. (The Pac-10’s improvement is due almost solely to Ben Howland’s turnaround in Westwood.) Read More »


Bottom of the barrel: DePaul hopes to avoid ignominy

We take this break from our regularly scheduled bubble coverage to set our sites a bit lower.

 

With Oregon’s win over Stanford on Saturday, DePaul is the lone remaining major-conference team without a conference win this season. On Wednesday, the Blue Demons led at the half at home against Villanova, 33-25, before the Cats stormed out in the second half to take a 52-44 lead. DePaul got it back to two, but that was the final margin in a 74-72 defeat. Read More »


Catching up with the Pac-10: Why I love it and you should too

I’ve watched more Pac-10 basketball this season than in any other. The cynic would snark that I picked a poor year to get involved with this conference, that last season was the golden year of this decade for the conference. But I am thoroughly pleased with my decision to devote more time to following the Pac-10. I enjoy the league’s balance, its unlikely results, the way the schedule flows predictably and how everyone plays everyone else home-and-home. I love the travel partners and how all the games or on Thursday and the weekend. And with all I’ve been watching and loving, I have a lot to write about the league, which is now at exactly the halfway mark of the conference schedule.

 

Since everyone’s played everyone else once each, it’s fair to compare the teams’ efficiencies and draw sweeping conclusions based on them:

 

Team W L Off Eff Def Eff Diff.
UCLA 7 2 1.190 1.025 +.165
Washington 7 2 1.159 1.017 +.142
Arizona State 5 4 1.090 1.006 +.083
Southern Cal 6 3 1.052 0.992 +.060
California 5 4 1.054 1.040 +.014
Arizona 4 5 1.027 1.039 -.012
Washington State 4 5 0.990 1.020 -.029
Stanford 3 6 1.038 1.100 -.061
Oregon State 4 5 0.968 1.122 -.154
Oregon 0 9 0.939 1.146 -.207

Read More »


Pac-10 teams taking their time

When Arizona State defeated UCLA at Pauley Pavilion, 61-58, in overtime on Saturday, would you believe that both teams scored more than a point per possession? It seems inconceivable that two teams could play 45 minutes of basketball, combine to score fewer than 120 points and still average better than a point possession. This was by far the slowest-paced major conference game this season at about 50 possessions per 40 minutes.

 

I’ve already addressed how Arizona State defeated UCLA, but let’s take a look at the pace at which they and now many of ASU’s conference foes play. Read More »