February 5, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.
It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.
Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Augustus Gilchrist, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Brigham Young, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Connecticut, Cornell, Dayton, DePaul, Derrick Williams, Dominique Jones, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Leonard Hamilton, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Robert Morris, Rutgers, Scott Drew, SEC, Seton Hall, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Stan Heath, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington, Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier
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January 29, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Notes: First, automatic bids for each conference are determined by conference record with tiebreakers broken by rank in our BTI model, not by head-to-head or other conference tiebreakers. Of course, every conference except for the Ivy League determines its ultimate automatic bid with a tournament, so conference tiebreakers really don’t matter much for our purposes. Second, there is one potential regular-season rematch in the first two rounds, and that’s in the South where Kentucky and Connecticut could meet. There was already a Big East team in the other three spots where a No. 9 seed could go, and the priority is keeping teams on their true seedlines over avoiding rematches.
Breakdown: In the end, I guess all of this was just bluster. The point of this bracket projection — even in January — is to accurately determine what the Selection Committee would do if it had to select and seed the field today. With that as the overriding standard, I found myself unable to move Texas or Duke ahead of Kentucky for the last No. 1 seed. If I wanted to make a bracket of what should happen, we’d have an entirely different projection. UK is still just 13th in the BTI seeding model, but that is a seeding model based on an entire season of play and pro-rated for what’s happened so far. This is a bracket based on less than three months of play, and so sometimes we’re left with guesswork. My best guess is that Kentucky would get the nod over Duke and Texas right now. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged A.J. Ogilvy, ACC, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Monday, Big Ten, Boston College, Brigham Young, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colonial, Connecticut, Courtney Fortson, Dayton, DePaul, Duke, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia, Illinois, Ivy League, Jeffrey Taylor, Jermaine Beal, John Jenkins, Jon Leuer, Kansas, Kansas State, Ken Pomeroy, Kentucky, LaSalle, Louisville, LSU, Maryland, Massachusetts, Matt Painter, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Rick Barnes, Rick Stansbury, San Diego State, Sean Miller, SEC, Seth Greenberg, South Carolina, South Florida, St. Joseph's, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Texas, Texas A&M, Travis Ford, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Virgina Tech, Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, William & Mary, Wisconsin, Xavier
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January 22, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Breakdown: This is our first projection of the season, as I like to wait until most teams have at least four conference games under their belts. It’s not until about now that you can really get a good gauge on a team. Everything up until now is primarily guesswork. Even so, there is a lot on this bracket that will look strange come March. The question is what. The answers will be revealed over the next seven weeks. One predictions: the Colonial Athletic Association will have fewer than three teams in the field.
For a frame of reference, in our first projection last season on Jan. 25, Kentucky and Florida were No. 6 seeds, and Georgetown was a No. 7; none of those three made the NCAAs. On the other hand, the Nos. 1-5 seeds all made the NCAAs. The four teams that ended the season as No. 1 seeds were 1, 1, 2 and 3 in our first projection. Ten of the teams seeded on the first four lines of last year’s first projection ended up as top-four seeds by March. So, there is perhaps more stability than one might expect. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colonial, Connecticut, Dayton, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northeastern, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Pac-10, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, SEC, South Carolina, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, William & Mary, Wisconsin, Xavier
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January 18, 2010 –
by Brendon
The NFL sells parity to its fans to convince supporters of poor or mediocre teams that the gap between their team and the league’s best isn’t that large. With NFL teams now challenging for perfect records deep into November every year, the promise of parity isn’t really being kept, but it was always a hollow one. That’s something Pac-10 fans are learning this season.
Take a look at the Pac-10 standings and you’ll see a lot of the same numbers — twos and threes mainly. Despite every team having played either five or six games, only Arizona State has a zero, one, four, five or six next to either its wins or losses. Herb Sendek’s Sun Devils are 4-2 in conference after sweeping the Oregon schools this weekend, and they sit atop the Pac-10. A single game separates second and 10th. Read More »
Posted in Pac-10
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Tagged Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Ben Howland, BTI, California, Herb Sendek, Kevin O'Neill, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Oregon State, Pac-10, Seattle, Southern Cal, Stanford, Tennessee, Texas Tech, UCLA, Washington, Washington State
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December 3, 2009 –
by Brendon
With 17 wins and eight in conference last season, Northwestern was perhaps two victories from the first NCAA Tournament bid in school history. In his ninth season, Bill Carmody had put together a roster that could compete in the Big Ten, and the best part for Wildcats fans is that Carmody returned eight of his top nine players for this winter. As the Murphy’s Law in basketball form, we should have known the rose would soon lose its bloom.
This wasn’t the first time Northwestern entered an offseason with high hopes for the coming winter. Enter 2005-06, the Cats were coming off a second straight season finishing a game below .500, and in Evanston, that’s reason for excitement. With a core of Vedran Vukusic, Mohamed Hachad and T.J. Parker returning for one more season — and only the utterly replaceable Davor Duvancic leaving — some thought this would be the team to breakthrough.
Instead, Parker — the brother of San Antonio Spur Tony — left school early to play in Europe. The Cats finished a game under .500 for the third straight season and 6-10 in conference for the second season in a row. After that season, Vukusic and Hachad were gone, and Northwestern would win just three total conference games over the next two seasons.
Back to this year. While the expectations for the 2005-06 Wildcats were probably too lofty even if Parker had returned, the idea that Northwestern could make the NCAA Tournament in 2009-10 was realistic. Craig Moore, who as a freshman took many of the minutes Parker left behind, was the only key part gone from last season’s team. Moore knew Carmody’s Princeton offense and 1-3-1 defense well, and he was a great shooter, but he was just one piece. Read More »
Posted in Big Ten
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Tagged Alex Marcotullio, Big Ten, Bill Carmody, Craig Moore, Davide Curletti, Drew Crawford, Iowa State, Ivan Peljusic, Jeff Ryan, Jeremy Nash, John Shurna, Kevin Coble, Kyle Rowley, Luka Mirkovic, Michael Thompson, Mike Capocci, Mohamed Hachad, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Princeton, San Antonio Spurs, Stanford, Sterling Williams, T.J. Parker, Tavaras Hardy, Tony Parker, Vedran Vukusic
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November 19, 2009 –
by Brendon
I spent some time in Monday’s Pac-10 Week in Review detailing Oregon State’s slow start last weekend in Lubbock, Texas, but the folks in Corvallis have some company in woe 600 miles to the south. With three starters gone and another injured from his first team in Palo Alto, Johnny Dawkins’ Cardinal has started 1-2 after a two-point loss to Oral Roberts on Wednesday night.
Stanford started the season with a difficult roadtrip to San Diego on Friday, where the Cardinal lost, 77-64. After returning home with a 70-53 win over Cal Poly, Dawkins’ men lost, 83-81, to perennial Summit League contender Oral Roberts. Considering what Stanford lost, this start was not unexpected, but Cardinal fans had hoped for better, even in a transitional season.
To understand the slow start, let’s gain some perspective. The Cardinal was built to win last season. Even after Robin and Brook Lopez went pro in the wake of Stanford’s Sweet 16 run and Trent Johnson’s departure to LSU, Stanford still returned three starters plus emerging Landry Fields. A 10-0 start against a mediocre non-conference disintegrated thanks to a 6-12 Pac-10 record. This was a team with fringe NCAA Tournament talent that wasn’t in the discussion in March.
From that team, guards Anthony Goods and Mitch Johnson graduated as did forward Lawrence Hill and reserve guard Kenny Brown. Big forward Josh Owens was supposed to return alongside Fields, but he remains out with an undisclosed medical condition. Owens hasn’t been cleared for practice, and it’s unclear whether he will play at all this season. Read More »
Posted in Pac-10
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Tagged Andrew Zimmermann, Anthony Brown, Anthony Goods, Brook Lopez, Cal Poly, Central Florida, Davidson, Drew Shiller, Dwight Powell, Foothill College, Jack Trotter, Jarrett Mann, Jeremy Green, Jermaine Taylor, Johnny Dawkins, Josh Owens, Kenny Brown, Landry Fields, Lester Hudson, LSU, Mitch Johnson, Oral Roberts, Oregon State, Pac-10, Robin Lopez, San Diego, Santa Clara, Sisyphus, Stanford, Stephen Curry, Tennessee-Martin, Trent Johnson
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November 17, 2009 –
by Brendon
UCLA tipped off ESPN’s now-annual college basketball marathon at midnight ET late Monday night, so very few people east of the Rockie Mountains were around for the conclusion, which came after two overtimes. The Bruins’ 68-65 loss to Cal State-Fullerton, a team picked seventh in the nine-team Big West, was a sobering reminder of how much UCLA has lost over the last two years.
Kevin Love, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Russell Westbrook, Lorenzo Mata-Real, Josh Shipp, Darren Collison, Jrue Holliday, Alfred Aboya. That is a lot of talent to replace — five first-round picks — and UCLA looks a bit short right now. Against the Titans on Monday night, only seven players played more than a single minute.
Three of those seven were from Ben Howland’s heralded 2009 recruiting class — Malcolm Lee, Drew Gordon and Jerime Anderson. This was the class that was supposed to limit the dropoff once the Collison-Shipp-Mbah a Moute-Aboya class had departed. The first problem was that the class’ best player, Holliday, went pro after a year. That wasn’t an unexpected development, but suddenly Collison didn’t have a fit heir apparent. Anderson saw limited action last year, and it was not always at the point. When he did play, he turned the ball over too much. Read More »
Posted in Game of the Night, Pac-10
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Tagged Alfred Aboya, Arizona, Arizona State, B.J. Mullens, Ben Howland, Big West, Cal State-Fullerton, Concordia, Darren Collison, Drew Gordon, Florida, Georgetown, Georgia State, Henry Sims, J'Mison Morgan, James Keefe, Jeff Withey, Jerime Anderson, Josh Shipp, Jrue Holliday, Kenny Kadji, Kevin Love, Lorenzo Mata-Real, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Malcolm Lee, Michael Dunigan, Michael Roll, Nicola Dragovic, Ohio State, Oregon, Pac-10, Rashanti Harris, Russell Westbrook, Southern Cal, Stanford, Ty Walker, Tyler Honeycutt, UCLA, Wake Forest, Washington State
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November 16, 2009 –
by Brendon
In sum: The other five major conferences combined for the number of losses the Pac-10 suffered alone last week — three. Oregon State’s offense looked terrible at the start of Craig Robinson’s second season, and Stanford was overmatched on the road at San Diego. On the positive side, Washington and Oregon were dominant in tournaments that they hosted, and Arizona State had the most dominant statistical performance of any team in its 87-35 win over Western Illinois.
Team of the week: Oregon. After a terrible season last year, Ernie Kent took the next step toward moving on with a 3-0 weekend to start 2009-10. The Ducks were dominant, especially on defense where they forced turnovers on 28 percent of opponents’ possession and dominated the defensive glass. Defense hasn’t been a strength for Oregon in the Kent Era, so we’ll see if this continues once the competition improves. Tajuan Porter hit 5-of-10 3-pointers in the last two wins. Read More »
Posted in Pac-10, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Arizona State, California, Craig Robinson, Ernie Kent, Mike Montgomery, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oral Roberts, Oregon, Oregon State, Pac-10, Portland, Roeland Schaftenaar, San Diego, Seth Tarver, Southland, Stanford, Syracuse, Tajuan Porter, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Washington, Western Illinois
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