March 18, 2009 –
by Brendon
Let me start off my first regional preview with a preface.
I’m not big into brackets. People always ask me who my Final Four is and who I have going far and what upsets I picked and when I’m going to come out with my bracket. And I understand why — this is the point at which the casual or non-fan relates to college basketball.
But I find that, when I am really into my brackets, I start rooting for teams I don’t like.
“Hey, Brendon, why are you rooting for Ohio State to beat Xavier? Wouldn’t that be a great upset?”
“Oh, it would — it’s true, and I would normally prefer Xavier, but I have OSU in the national final in my bracket.”
Aaargh!
No longer. I will pick a bracket and not get too attached to it. I will continue to root for the teams I want to root for and not worry about whether my bracket is ruined — and not get annoyed when people ask me how bracket is doing, as if it’s a newborn baby or a 401K. Read More »
Posted in National Perspective, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Alex Ruoff, Andre McGee, Arizona, Bob Huggins, Boston College, Cleveland State, Cole Aldrich, Da'Sean Butler, Darryl Bryant, Dayton, DeMar DeRozen, Devin Ebanks, Evan Turner, Fran McCaffery, Jerry Smith, Jon Diebler, Kalin Lucas, Kansas, Louisville, Michigan State, Mike Tranghese, Ohio State, Preston Knowles, Raymar Morgan, Rob Lowery, Sherron Colling, Siena, Southern Cal, Taj Gibson, Terrence Williams, Tim Floyd, Utah, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Williams Buford
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March 17, 2009 –
by Brendon
| Conference |
WinExp |
| Big East |
16.38 |
| ACC |
10.88 |
| Big 12 |
8.18 |
| Big Ten |
7.18 |
| Pac-10 |
5.99 |
| A-10 |
2.47 |
| C-USA |
2.41 |
| MWC |
1.83 |
| SEC |
1.50 |
| WCC |
1.49 |
| Horizon |
0.83 |
| MAAC |
0.58 |
(Only leagues with a combined win expectancy of at least 0.50 were included on chart above.)
What you see above is a chart of win expectancies for each conference this season based on historical performance of each seed in the NCAA Tournament. In my previous piece, I went back over the last three seasons to see how each conference has achieved in comparison to its seeds, and in once of each of those seasons did a conference have a win expectancy of at least 10. This year, two leagues pass the 10-win threshold, with the Big East having what has to be a record at 16.38 wins. Read More »
Posted in National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Arizona State, Arkansas, Atlantic-10, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Boston College, Bradley, Colonial, Conference USA, Connecticut, George Mason, Memphis, Mississippi State, Missouri Valley, Pac-10, SEC, Southern Cal, UAB, UCLA, Washington, Wichita State
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March 11, 2009 –
by Brendon
The Pac-10 may be the most underrated conference in the NCAA this season. It’s a young league that went through typical struggles early in the season, but it has improved as the season has progressed, and that gave the fan compelling conference action. The RPI, however, lags far behind the actual quality of the competition, because all those non-conference games came early. Teams like Washington State, Oregon State and Arizona played by far their best ball in conference play after up-and-down — or in OSU’s case, mainly down — performances in pre-conference action.
Without a truly elite team and without any terrible teams — excepting Oregon, which is unlikely to make it to Thursday and which has actually won two straight — the Pac-10 should be among the most competitive conference tournaments this week. Read More »
Posted in Pac-10, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Pac-10, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA, Washington, Washington State
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February 20, 2009 –
by Brendon
Bubble Watch: Saturday offers plenty of chances for statements
With a bubble gone berserk, Saturday brings relief with a slate full of games that will (hopefully) separate the wheat from the chaff. Nearly every major conference has a matchup that will, in part, determine postseason fates. We feature eight of them here.
Notre Dame at Providence (noon, all tip times EST): Teams with conference records as bad as Notre Dame’s (5-8) simply don’t get selected for the NCAA Tournament. But the Irish have five games to get that conference record and RPI (75) to a point where the committee could consider them. The first step in getting there is to beat Providence at the Dunkin’ Donuts Center on Saturday. The Friars, for their part, are in far better position to make the NCAAs thanks to an 8-6 conference record that includes two wins over Cincinnati and a victory over Syracuse. With upcoming games against Pitt and at Villanova, that very nice record is in jeopardy, and that, combined with a poor RPI (69), means a home win over Notre Dame is a must. These are two teams who find defense anathema, so it should be a crowd pleaser with both teams getting into the 80s. In Notre Dame, Providence finally runs across a Big East foe that is talented and yet doesn’t overwhelm the Friars with its size and athleticism. We’ll see if they can take advantage. Read More »
Posted in National Perspective, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged ACC, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Boston College, BYU, Florida State, Georgetown, Kentucky, Marquette, Miami (Fla.), Mountain West, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Providence, SEC, Southern Cal, Tennessee, UNLV, Virginia Tech, Washington
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February 16, 2009 –
by Brendon
Bracketing challenges: Man, did I have bracketing challenges! We’ll cover the disaster zone that is the bubble in a bit, but let’s start at the top. The last No. 2 seed came down to Wake Forest and Missouri. I’ve noticed that the Tigers are only rarely even a No. 3 seed in the Bracket Matrix projection grid. I’m not sure I can find a legitimate reason why Missouri should be lower than a No. 3 and, in fact, it’s not that hard to make the case that Mizzou should be the last No. 2. In this case, though, Wake gets the slight nod over Missouri after the admittedly inconsistent Deacons’ impressive win over Florida State. That last No. 2 seed is really there for the taking for any team that finishes strong. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Cincinnati, Creighton, Georgetown, Kansas State, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Mid-Majors, Mountain West, Pac-10, Providence, San Diego State, SEC, Southern Cal, UNLV, Virginia Tech
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February 13, 2009 –
by Brendon
Bracketing challenges: The two most difficult aspects to this bracket were near the top and at the at-large cut line. The former was centered around the second, third and fourth seed lines. Several of the teams being considered for these lines — Marquette, Kansas, Louisville, UCLA, Xavier, Wake Forest — lost during the mid-week, which made identifying good options more difficult. Through a process of elimination, the last spot on the second seed line came down to Clemson and Villanova, the two teams that met in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament. Clemson gets the nod with one fewer loss on the season and one more win against the RPI top 50. The margins are that small from team to team. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Arizona, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Boston College, Brigham Young, Butler, Cincinnati, Clemson, Creighton, Dayton, Georgetown, Illinois, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Missouri, Mountain West, Nebraska, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Penn State, Providence, San Diego State, SEC, Southern Cal, St. Joseph's, Syracuse, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, Utah, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier
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February 6, 2009 –
by Brendon
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Bracketing challenges: The most difficult team to place in this bracket was Purdue. On Tuesday, the Boilermakers lost at Ohio State in overtime without their best player — Robbie Hummel. It’s the second time Purdue has lost a close game on the road without the sophomore star. Usually those losses would be discounted slightly with the expectation that Purdue will have a full-strength Hummel by the time March comes around. The problem with that assumption is that Hummel is suffering from a stress fracture in his back, an injury that won’t fully heal until the offseason. Hummel is expected to be day-to-day from here until Purdue’s final game of the season. Because of the chronic nature of the injury, I’m treating those losses as if they were full-strength losses — with a slight discount for the Penn State loss, because Purdue was without Chris Kramer for that game. Losing close road games to Penn State and Ohio State is not particularly egregious — certainly better than Michigan State’s home losses to Penn State and Northwestern — but Purdue would probably be listed as a No. 4 seed if doctors expected Hummel to be fully healthy by March. Instead, the Boilermakers are the top No. 5 seed on my board.
Note: San Diego State is in the field as an automatic bid from the Mountain West after winning at UNLV on Tuesday. The Aztecs would be right between Baylor and Southern Cal in the “Last In” list if they were considered an at-large.
The Bubble: The bubble was a little awkward this week because of several results in conference play. Even with San Diego State’s inclusion as an automatic, the standard for inclusion in the field on Friday feels less stringent than it did on Monday thanks to many losses by teams around the bubble. In the end, I’m very comfortable with the top 32 at-large teams. It’s the last two — Baylor and Michigan — that I could take or leave.
Michigan’s impressive win over Penn State put both teams right around the cut mark. Because of the Wolverines’ win Thursday and their more impressive play out of conference — wins over Duke and UCLA — they’re in and the Nittany Lions are out, not that it was necessarily and either/or proposition. Baylor is running out of reprieves. Scott Drew’s team has now lost four straight games, all against teams seeded No. 7 or better in this projection. Baylor now enters a stretch of five games — at Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, at Oklahoma State, at Iowa State — where the Bears will need to win at least three to stay in the field. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Arizona, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Baylor, Ben Howland, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Bo Ryan, Boston College, Brigham Young, Bruce Pearl, Butler, Chase Budinger, Chris Kramer, Cincinnati, Clemson, Connecticut, Davidson, Dayton, Derek Glasser, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, James Harden, Jay Wright, Jerome Randle, Kansas, Kansas State, La Salle, Louisville, LSU, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mike Montgomery, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Missouri, Mountain West, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, Pac-10, Patty Mills, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Robbie Hummel, Rutgers, Saint Joseph's, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, SEC, Siena, South Carolina, Southern Cal, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Tom Izzo, Tywon Lawson, UNLV, Utah, Utah State, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Xavier
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February 1, 2009 –
by Brendon
I’ve watched more Pac-10 basketball this season than in any other. The cynic would snark that I picked a poor year to get involved with this conference, that last season was the golden year of this decade for the conference. But I am thoroughly pleased with my decision to devote more time to following the Pac-10. I enjoy the league’s balance, its unlikely results, the way the schedule flows predictably and how everyone plays everyone else home-and-home. I love the travel partners and how all the games or on Thursday and the weekend. And with all I’ve been watching and loving, I have a lot to write about the league, which is now at exactly the halfway mark of the conference schedule.
Since everyone’s played everyone else once each, it’s fair to compare the teams’ efficiencies and draw sweeping conclusions based on them:
| Team |
W |
L |
Off Eff |
Def Eff |
Diff. |
| UCLA |
7 |
2 |
1.190 |
1.025 |
+.165 |
| Washington |
7 |
2 |
1.159 |
1.017 |
+.142 |
| Arizona State |
5 |
4 |
1.090 |
1.006 |
+.083 |
| Southern Cal |
6 |
3 |
1.052 |
0.992 |
+.060 |
| California |
5 |
4 |
1.054 |
1.040 |
+.014 |
| Arizona |
4 |
5 |
1.027 |
1.039 |
-.012 |
| Washington State |
4 |
5 |
0.990 |
1.020 |
-.029 |
| Stanford |
3 |
6 |
1.038 |
1.100 |
-.061 |
| Oregon State |
4 |
5 |
0.968 |
1.122 |
-.154 |
| Oregon |
0 |
9 |
0.939 |
1.146 |
-.207 |
Read More »
Posted in Pac-10
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Tagged Alfred Aboya, Arizona, Arizona State, Barack Obama, Ben Howland, California, Chase Budinger, Craig Robinson, Darren Collison, Demar DeRozan, Derek Glasser, Dick Bennett, Ernie Kent, Herb Sendek, Isaiah Thomas, James Harden, Jeff Pendergraph, Joevan Catron, Johnny Dawkins, Jon Brockman, Josh Shipp, Jrue Holliday, Klay Thompson, Lorenzo Romar, Malik Hairston, Marcus Johnson, Matthew Bryan-Amaning, Michael Dunigan, Mike Montgomery, Oregon, Oregon State, Quincy Pondexter, Rihards Kuksiks, Russ Pennell, Southern Cal, Stanford, Taj Gibson, Tajuan Porter, Tim Floyd, Tony Bennett, UCLA, Washington, Washington State
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