February 19, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Bracketing Challenges: There were a couple of challenges I want to make note of, the first coming at the end of the No. 3 seedline. The battle here was between Vanderbilt and Baylor, who have very similar profiles. Both teams are 19-5 and have two wins against the RPI top 25. I went with the Commodores primarily because their two top-25 wins come in just three chances. Also, their conference RPI is 3. Only Kansas (1) and Duke (2) are ranked higher for play within the conference.
The other thing I wanted to address is Wake Forest. After the Demon Deacons’ loss to Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, I dropped them from a No. 5 to a No. 7, which is quite harsh. Wake ranks 23rd in my BTI seed model, which should equate to a No. 6 seed. However, Butler and Ohio State rate out on the No. 7 seedline, and I feel like both would surely be higher than that right now. So, I bumped the Bears and Buckeyes to No. 6’s at the expense of Richmond and Wake Forest. One could argue that Xavier — which is ranked 21st in the model — should have been the one to get bumped down, and I wouldn’t put up too much resistance in my rebuttal. I just didn’t go in that direction. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Arizona State, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Conference USA, Connecticut, Duke, Florida, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Memphis, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Pac-10, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rhode Island, San Diego State, SEC, Seton Hall, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Cal, St. Mary's, Texas, UAB, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Washington, Wichita State, William & Mary, Wisconsin
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February 16, 2010 –
by Brendon
In a span of 72 hours, each of the Big East’s top four teams — squads that once fit neatly on the top two seedlines of most NCAA Tournament projections — lost. In and of themselves, the losses for West Virginia, Syracuse, Georgetown and Villanova won’t do anything to affect their NCAA Tournament acceptance and will do little to affect their seeding, but what they did do was reveal potentially fatal flaws, which are often overlooked as teams pile up wins.
West Virginia: The Mountaineers’ 98-95 overtime loss at Pittsburgh was the most excusable of the defeats suffered by the Big East’s top four on this holiday weekend, but it was also West Virginia’s second-straight loss. It may come as a surprise to some that it’s WVU’s defense and not its offense that has been mostly to blame in the team’s five defeats.
|
Efficiencies |
Defense |
| Opponent |
PPP |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Reb |
FTR |
2PT% |
3PT% |
| at Purdue |
0.987 |
1.225 |
0.536 |
0.111 |
0.318 |
0.411 |
0.545 |
0.333 |
| at Notre Dame |
1.130 |
1.164 |
0.616 |
0.150 |
0.180 |
0.558 |
0.533 |
0.538 |
| vs. Syracuse |
1.065 |
1.080 |
0.622 |
0.300 |
0.458 |
0.578 |
0.667 |
0.333 |
| vs. Villanova |
1.044 |
1.142 |
0.618 |
0.251 |
0.460 |
0.431 |
0.600 |
0.455 |
| at Pittsburgh |
1.165 |
1.202 |
0.508 |
0.098 |
0.274 |
0.536 |
0.500 |
0.346 |
| Composite |
1.078 |
1.163 |
0.580 |
0.182 |
0.338 |
0.503 |
0.569 |
0.401 |
You can see that West Virginia is allowing 0.085 points per possession more than it is scoring in its five losses. The main culprit is field-goal defense. Despite the Mountaineers’ notable length, they are allowing opponents to make 40 percent of their 3-pointers and 57 percent of their 2-pointers in these defeats. For the season, West Virginia is ahead of only the comparatively tiny Marquette and Providence squads in 2-point defense among Big East teams. Read More »
Posted in Big East
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Tagged Andy Rautins, Antonio Pena, Arinze Onuaku, Big East, Billy Gillispie, Brandon Triche, Colorado, Corey Stokes, Georgetown, Georgia, Greg Monroe, Iowa, Jared Swopshire, Jessie Sapp, John Thompson III, Kansas State, Louisville, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rakeem Buckles, Rick Jackson, Rutgers, Samardo Samuels, Scoop Jardine, Sharaud Curry, Southern Cal, Southern Illinois, Syracuse, Texas A&M, Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Western Kentucky
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January 18, 2010 –
by Brendon
The NFL sells parity to its fans to convince supporters of poor or mediocre teams that the gap between their team and the league’s best isn’t that large. With NFL teams now challenging for perfect records deep into November every year, the promise of parity isn’t really being kept, but it was always a hollow one. That’s something Pac-10 fans are learning this season.
Take a look at the Pac-10 standings and you’ll see a lot of the same numbers — twos and threes mainly. Despite every team having played either five or six games, only Arizona State has a zero, one, four, five or six next to either its wins or losses. Herb Sendek’s Sun Devils are 4-2 in conference after sweeping the Oregon schools this weekend, and they sit atop the Pac-10. A single game separates second and 10th. Read More »
Posted in Pac-10
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Tagged Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Ben Howland, BTI, California, Herb Sendek, Kevin O'Neill, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Oregon State, Pac-10, Seattle, Southern Cal, Stanford, Tennessee, Texas Tech, UCLA, Washington, Washington State
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November 23, 2009 –
by Brendon
Saturday
Saturday’s slight was highlighted by a mid-major battle in Philadelphia between Siena and Temple. The Owls won, 73-69, in what has to be a frustrating loss for Fran McCaffery’s team, since the Saints won three of the Four Factors.
|
Poss |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Reb |
FTR |
| Siena |
70 |
0.99 |
0.483 |
0.158 |
0.324 |
0.203 |
| Temple |
70 |
1.05 |
0.557 |
0.201 |
0.273 |
0.082 |
As we continue to see, eFG is the trump card to override deficiencies in the other areas. Siena made seven more free throws, had three fewer turnovers and two more offensive rebounds, but none of that mattered because of the disparity behind the 3-point arc. Siena hit 1-of-9; Temple made 6-of-19. Juan Fernandez was especially big for the Owls, making 4-of-6. Read More »
Posted in Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Atlantic-10, Butler, Craig Robinson, Drake, Evansville, Fran McCaffery, Jeff Capel, Juan Fernandez, Kevin O'Neill, Larry Sanders, Loyola Marymount, Missouri Valley, Nik Raivio, Oregon State, Pac-10, Portland, Sacramento State, Shaka Smart, Siena, Southern Cal, Southern Illinois, Steven Pledger, Temple, UNLV, VCU, Willie Warren
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November 17, 2009 –
by Brendon
UCLA tipped off ESPN’s now-annual college basketball marathon at midnight ET late Monday night, so very few people east of the Rockie Mountains were around for the conclusion, which came after two overtimes. The Bruins’ 68-65 loss to Cal State-Fullerton, a team picked seventh in the nine-team Big West, was a sobering reminder of how much UCLA has lost over the last two years.
Kevin Love, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Russell Westbrook, Lorenzo Mata-Real, Josh Shipp, Darren Collison, Jrue Holliday, Alfred Aboya. That is a lot of talent to replace — five first-round picks — and UCLA looks a bit short right now. Against the Titans on Monday night, only seven players played more than a single minute.
Three of those seven were from Ben Howland’s heralded 2009 recruiting class — Malcolm Lee, Drew Gordon and Jerime Anderson. This was the class that was supposed to limit the dropoff once the Collison-Shipp-Mbah a Moute-Aboya class had departed. The first problem was that the class’ best player, Holliday, went pro after a year. That wasn’t an unexpected development, but suddenly Collison didn’t have a fit heir apparent. Anderson saw limited action last year, and it was not always at the point. When he did play, he turned the ball over too much. Read More »
Posted in Game of the Night, Pac-10
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Tagged Alfred Aboya, Arizona, Arizona State, B.J. Mullens, Ben Howland, Big West, Cal State-Fullerton, Concordia, Darren Collison, Drew Gordon, Florida, Georgetown, Georgia State, Henry Sims, J'Mison Morgan, James Keefe, Jeff Withey, Jerime Anderson, Josh Shipp, Jrue Holliday, Kenny Kadji, Kevin Love, Lorenzo Mata-Real, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Malcolm Lee, Michael Dunigan, Michael Roll, Nicola Dragovic, Ohio State, Oregon, Pac-10, Rashanti Harris, Russell Westbrook, Southern Cal, Stanford, Ty Walker, Tyler Honeycutt, UCLA, Wake Forest, Washington State
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November 13, 2009 –
by Brendon
Let’s face it — Sunday’s slate isn’t very interesting, but there is an upset watch in Providence as well as an intriguing scheduling trend for teams looking for an RPI boost.
Mercer at Providence (2:30 p.m. ET): The World Vision Invitational may not compete with the Maui Invitational or the NIT Season Tip-Off in terms of attracting marquee programs, but it does offer us one of Sunday’s intriguing matchups. This three-day “tournament,” which has four teams play a round-robin format, features Providence as the host. Mercer, Bryant and Bucknell fill out the field.
(Brief digression: World Vision is a terrific Christian charity that is often among the first responders with support after a natural disaster — like the recent floods in the Philippines. World Vision is also on the vanguard of preventing cases of malaria in the third world. I encourage you to check it out.)
Bryant has just recently become a Division I team, and, while Bucknell is a solid opponent capable of pulling off the upset, Mercer’s reputation as a giant-killer continues to grow. The Bears famously knocked off O.J. Mayo and Southern Cal in the teams’ opener two seasons ago. Last year, the Atlantic Sun program defeated Alabama and Auburn in a four-day span. With six of his top eight players back, head coach Bob Hoffman will hope to add a Big East scalp to his collection. Read More »
Posted in ACC, Big East, Mid-Majors, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged ACC, Alabama, Atlantic Sun, Auburn, Big East, Bilal Dixon, Bob Hoffman, Brian McKenzie, Bryant, Bucknell, Delaware, Duke Mondy, E.J. Kusnyer, East Carolina, Georgetown, James Florence, James Still, Jamine Peterson, Johnnie Lacy, Kadeem Batts, Keno Davis, Kyle Wright, Marshon Brooks, Mercer, Mid-Majors, Monmouth, O.J. Mayo, Providence, RPI, Russ Permenter, San Diego, Seton Hall, Sharaud Curry, Southern Cal, Stanford, Temple, Tulane, Vincent Council, Wake Forest, World Vision
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November 9, 2009 –
by Brendon
Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:
• ACC
• Big 12
• Big East
• Big Ten
• Pac-10
• SEC
• Mid-Majors
With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.
ACC
Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »
Posted in National Perspective
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Tagged 2009-10 season preview, A.J. Ogilvy, ACC, Al Skinner, Al-Farouq Aminu, Alabama, Alonzo Gee, Andy Kennedy, Anthony Crater, Anthony Grant, Arinze Onuaku, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Augustus Gilchrist, Austin Freeman, Avery Bradley, Baylor, Ben Braun, Ben Howland, Big East, Big Ten, Bill Carmody, Bill Self, Bo Ryan, Bobby Gonzalez, Boston College, Brad Tinsley, Brandon Triche, Brigham Young, Bruce Pearl, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Carleton Scott, Cashmere Wright, Chandler Parsons, Chase Budinger, Chinemelu Elonu, Chris Johnson, Chris Warren, Chris Wright, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Conference USA, Connecticut, Cory Higgins, Courtney Fortson, Craig Brackins, Craig Moore, Craig Robinson, Creighton, Damion James, Dante Cunningham, Dar Tucker, Darryl Bryant, David Huertas, Dayton, DeJuan Blair, DeMarre Carroll, Demetri McCamey, Demontez Stitt, Denis Clemente, Deon Thompson, Deonta Vaughn, DePaul, Derek Glasser, Derrick Favors, DeShawn Sims, Devan Downey, Dexter Pittman, Doc Sadler, Dominique Jones, Duke, Dwayne Anderson, Dwight Lewis, Ed Davis, Elliott Williams, Ernie Kent, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Frank Haith, Frank Lickliter, Frank Martin, Fred Hill, Gani Lawal, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Greg Echenique, Greg McDermott, Greg Monroe, Greivis Vasquex, Herb Pope, Herb Sendek, Horizon, Howard Thompkins, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Isaiah Thomas, J.T. Tiller, JaJuan Johnson, Jake Kelly, Jamelle Cornley, James Anderson, James Harden, JaMychal Green, Jarvis Varnado, Jeff Bzdelik, Jeff Capel, Jeff Leo, Jeff Pendergraph, Jeff Peterson, Jeffrey Taylor, Jeremiah Rivers, Jermaine Beal, Jerome Dyson, Jerome Randle, Jerry Wainwright, Joe Mazulla, John Beilein, John Henson, John Jackson, John Pelphrey, John Riek, John Thompson III, John Wall, Johnny Dawkins, Jon Brockman, Jon Scheter, Jonny Flynn, Jordan Hill, Josh Owens, Jrue Holiday, Junior Cadougan, Justin Dentmon, Kalin Lucas, Kansas, Kansas State, Keaton Nankivil, Kemba Walker, Ken Bone, Kenny Boynton, Keno Davis, Kentucky, Keon Lawrence, Kevin Coble, Kevin O'Neill, Kevin Stallings, Klay Thompson, Kyle Singler, LaceDarius Dunn, Lance Stephenson, Landry Fields, Lazar Hayward, Leo Lyons, Leonard Hamilton, Lorenzo Brown, Lorenzo Romar, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, MAAC, Manny Harris, Marcus Thornton, Mark Fox, Mark Turgeon, Marquette, Marshon Brooks, Maryland, Memphis, Miami (Fla.), Michael Dunigan, Michael Snaer, Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Mike Davis, Mike Montgomery, Mike Rosario, Mike Singletary, Mikhail Torrance, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Mouphtaou Yarou, Murphy Holloway, Nebraska, Niagara, Nic Wise, Nick Calathes, Norm Roberts, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Oregon, Oregon State, Pac-10, Pat Knight, Patrick Christopher, Patrick Patterson, Paul Gause, Paul Hewitt, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Quincy Pondexter, Raymar Morgan, Renardo Sidney, Rick Barnes, Rick Jackson, Rick Stansbury, Rihards Kuksiks, Robbie Hummel, Roy Williams, Rutgers, Samardo Samuels, Scoop Jardine, Scott Drew, Scott Martin, Sean Miller, SEC, Senario Hillman, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, Sharaud Curry, Sidney Lowe, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Cal, St. John's, Stan Heath, Stanford, Stanley Pringle, Stanley Robinson, Sylvan Landesburg, Syracuse, Talor Battle, Tennessee, Terrico White, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Theo Robertson, Tim Abromaitis, Tim Floyd, Tom Crean, Toney Douglas, Tony Bennett, Travis Ford, Trevor Booker, Tubby Smith, Tulsa, Ty Abbott, Tyler Smith, Tyler Zeller, Tyrese Rice, Tyrone Nash, UCLA, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Vernon Macklin, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, WAC, Wake Forest, Washington, Washington State, Wayne Chism, Wesley Johnson, West Coast, West Virginia, Willie Warren, Wisconsin, Xavier, Zaire Taylor
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March 23, 2009 –
by Brendon
In an opening weekend of “almosts,” it turned out that we almost had all of the top-four seeds advance to the Sweet 16. Only Cleveland State’s tip-to-buzzer beating of Wake Forest (predicted by Lukas last week) and Purdue’s last-minute win over Washington prevented a Tournament chalky enough for a pool cue. Over the next few days, we’re going to do some looking ahead and some looking back, and let’s start with a look at the weekend’s statistical storylines.
Chalk one up for balance: We mentioned in our previews last week that Florida State and Boston College out of the ACC were two teams on opposite spectrums. FSU was the all-defense, no-offense team and BC the all-offense, no-defense team among the major-conference squads in the Tournament. Both tasted defeat against lower-seeded teams in the First round on Friday. Read More »
Posted in National Perspective, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Arizona State, Boston College, Demar DeRozan, Dominic James, Florida State, James Harden, Jerel McNeal, Marquette, Missouri, Southern Cal, Wesley Matthews, Wisconsin
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