Lazar Hayward is Big East Player of the Year, for now

The Big East Player of the Year race is one of the most interesting I can remember. I decided to put a more analytical spin to the race, and you can find my conclusions herein.

 

After crunching some numbers to determine which players have had the biggest impact on their teams, I narrowed down my list to eight players whom I think deserve serious consideration. Here are some of the interesting players I eliminated when paring the list to eight: Jamine Peterson (Providence), Samardo Samuels (Louisville), Jimmy Butler (Marquette), Corey Fisher (Villanova), Tim Abromaitis (Notre Dame), Jerome Dyson (Connecticut), D.J. Kennedy (St. John’s), Brad Wanamaker (Pittsburgh), and there were others.

 

I used full-season data for my evaluations, although I would like to put together some conference-only data once the season is over. Here are my eight finalists in tabular form: Read More »


Writing nice things about two Pac-10 teams

After two years in which the best Pac-10 players were also the best players in the nation, everyone knows the struggles the league has suffered this season. There’s no reason to post the litany of embarrassments the Pac-10 has suffered this season, as the conference has become a national punchline. Lost, though, in all of the giggles and putdowns are the California Bears.

 

Mike Montgomery’s team completed a home sweep of the Washington schools with a 16-point win over Washington State on Saturday. Two nights earlier, the Bears were even more impressive, never allowing UW in the game in a 12-point victory featured on ESPN’s “Duke plays UNC for the first time” Week. That win avenged a 15-point loss in Seattle, a Jan. 16 game that wasn’t even that close.

 

Now 9-4 in conference and 17-8 overall, the Bears are on their way to a Pac-10 regular-season title and a 20-win season despite playing one of the dozen toughest schedules in the nation. Cal’s problem in getting into the NCAA Tournament is partly its own fault. The Bears have yet to beat a likely NCAA Tournament team, going 0-4 against Syracuse, Ohio State, New Mexico and Kansas outside of conference. And, since the Pac-10 is down this season, Cal’s nine wins against eight different league members may fail to sway the Selection Committee. Read More »


Overlooked Hall has NCAAs within sights

A 2-6 stretch from mid-December to mid-January took Seton Hall off many NCAA Tournament radars, but the Pirates are proving that they are good enough to compete for a berth. With two straight wins, SHU is back to 3-4 in conference, and the schedule lightens up — a little — from here on out. In my preseason projections, I picked Seton Hall to make the NCAA Tournament, and there’s no reason to back off that now, even if it might be as the eighth or ninth Big East team in the field.

 

Right now, the Pirates are just on the outside looking in — fifth out based on my at-large prediction model, but here are some reasons why Seton Hall is good enough to hear its name called on March 14.

 

Depth: Coach Bobby Gonzalez always had kids who could play and play hard, he just never had enough of them. This season, he has 10 guys whom he’s comfortable playing at various times, and a solid eight-man rotation that could change depending on the opponent. The addition of three transfers — Herb Pope, Jeff Robinson and Keon Lawrence — and two freshmen — Jamel Jackson and Ferrakohn Hall — has allowed Gonzalez to keep his best players healthy and rested. That has helped Seton Hall down the stretch of games and should help down the stretch of this season. Read More »


Villanova recovers from sloppy first half to top Cards

Those viewers who slogged through Monday night’s two-hour, 40-minute game between Villanova and Louisville are owed a debt of gratitude by both teams and the three officials. It was not a propitious start to the first true Big Monday of the season.

 

Villanova defeated the Cardinals at Freedom Hall, 92-84, in what was an intensely competitive game, but no one will wish to see it in full again. Forty-four turnovers, 67 fouls (plus a technical on Jay Wright), 94 free-throw attempts — this game had all the flow of a Los Angeles freeway interchange. Highlights only, please.

 

Team Poss PPP eFG Turn Reb FTR
Villanova 80 1.15 0.582 0.276 0.441 0.714
Louisville 80 1.05 0.375 0.276 0.523 0.650

 

It’s impossible to get a full grasp of how the game was played from the final score — or even the Four Factors above — but the one thing that is easy to see is that this game was foul-marred. Ten players on each team played at least five minutes, and all but one — Louisville’s Reginald Delk — committed at least two fouls. Nine players committed at least four fouls. Read More »


SEC teams fall in Sunday tourney finals

Sunday

 

Sunday’s slate featured a pair of tournament championships, but the SEC teams lost in both. The better chance for a win was probably in Charleston where South Carolina took on the Miami Hurricanes. Despite committing 14 more turnovers than South Carolina, Frank Haith’s team shot the lights out to win.

 

Poss PPP eFG Turn Reb FTR
Miami 80 1.06 0.607 0.298 0.424 0.304
South Carolina 80 0.87 0.414 0.124 0.218 0.092

 

The big difference was in 2-point shooting where the shorter Gamecocks struggled to keep Miami away from the rim. Miami outshot South Carolina on 2-pointers, 61.5 percent to 32.4, and outscored South Carolina by 14 points on twos and 10 free throws. These are the problems a team can run into with a 6-foot-7 center.

 

The final in Puerto Rico was very sloppy — it seems like most games there are. Mississippi and Villanova combined for 45 turnovers, and neither shot even 45 percent eFG. The difference in this game came inside where the Wildcats had the advantage. Villanova turned five more offensive boards into 16 more second-chance points and outscored the Rebels by 18 points in the paint. Read More »


Matchup Meter: Free throws will come at great cost to UNC, Nova

The last time North Carolina won the national championship, the Tar Heels defeated two teams from the same conference at the Final Four in St. Louis in 2005. Starting Saturday in Detroit, UNC may have the chance to it again. Villanova is the first opponent for Roy Williams team in the national semifinal with another Big East team, Connecticut, favored to win the first semifinal. Just like with the Michigan State-Connecticut semifinal, I’m going to analyze Villanova-UNC based on team matchups.

 

No. 3 Villanova vs. No. 1 North Carolina (8:47 p.m. ET)

 

Where Villanova can hurt North Carolina: On the offensive glass. Villanova is a balanced team, one that doesn’t excel at any one thing — except perhaps free-throw shooting — and isn’t awful at anything, though the Cats do send their opponents to the line a bit too much. Therefore, pinpointing a distinct Nova stylistic edge isn’t simple, but it may surprise you that it’s on the offensive glass where the Cats should be able to do some damage to North Carolina. Read More »


Louisville’s defense imposes will over Villanova in semis

NEW YORK — Fans and members of the media like to construct a basketball team’s character around its ability to play defense. Good defensive teams “try harder,” have “more heart” and “want it more” than their opponents. That may be true in hackneyed leads and on messageboard threads, but, on a basketball floor, defense is built on talent and coaching just as much if not more than offense is.

 

There isn’t a team more talented or coached better defensively than Louisville, and the Cards proved it again in a 69-55 win over Villanova in Friday’s first Big East Tournament semifinal at Madison Square Garden. Read More »


Harangody’s last stand as successful as Custer’s

While fawning over how well Notre Dame had been playing entering Monday’s game with Villanova and making excuses for the Irish’s poor record, national college basketball pundits have been avoiding one salient fact — they’re not very good. That under-developed point should have been driven home once again as Villanova dominated the second half and knocked ND out of any realistic at-large hopes in a 77-60 victory.

 

It may not be in good form to toot my own horn, but I’ve been writing this all year — there are too many types of teams that give the Irish trouble for them to ever have been considered elite. Teams with tall frontlines can neutralize the shorter Luke Harangody. Teams with explosive, penetrating guards give the slower Notre Dame defenders fits, and teams with strong defensive guards help to stymie a player like Kyle McAlarney. Even if a team has just one of these elements, it can hang with the Irish. If it has more than one — see Washington State, Villanova, Marquette, Connecticut — then Notre Dame is in big trouble. Read More »