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	<title>BaselineStats.com: College Basketball Stats and Analysis &#187; Reginald Delk</title>
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	<description>College hoops stats and analysis for the die-hard</description>
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		<title>Villanova recovers from sloppy first half to top Cards</title>
		<link>http://www.baselinestats.com/20100112/villanova-recovers-from-sloppy-first-half-to-top-cards/</link>
		<comments>http://www.baselinestats.com/20100112/villanova-recovers-from-sloppy-first-half-to-top-cards/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jan 2010 16:47:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brendon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Big East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game of the Night]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Connecticut]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corey Fisher]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edgar Sosa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Georgetown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jay Wright]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Cahill]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Karl Hess]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ken Pomeroy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Louisville]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Maalik Wayns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Stephens]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Marra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pittsburgh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Preston Knowles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reginald Delk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Samardo Samuels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scottie Reynolds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seton Hall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taylor King]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Villanova]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baselinestats.com/?p=1629</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Those viewers who slogged through Monday night&#8217;s two-hour, 40-minute game between Villanova and Louisville are owed a debt of gratitude by both teams and the three officials. It was not a propitious start to the first true Big Monday of the season.
&#160;
Villanova defeated the Cardinals at Freedom Hall, 92-84, in what was an intensely competitive [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Those viewers who slogged through Monday night&#8217;s two-hour, 40-minute game between Villanova and Louisville are owed a debt of gratitude by both teams and the three officials. It was not a propitious start to the first true Big Monday of the season.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Villanova defeated the Cardinals at Freedom Hall, 92-84, in what was an intensely competitive game, but no one will wish to see it in full again. Forty-four turnovers, 67 fouls (plus a technical on Jay Wright), 94 free-throw attempts &#8212; this game had all the flow of a Los Angeles freeway interchange. Highlights only, please.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table width="300">
<thead>
<tr>
<td><strong>Team</strong></td>
<td><strong>Poss</strong></td>
<td><strong>PPP</strong></td>
<td><strong>eFG</strong></td>
<td><strong>Turn</strong></td>
<td><strong>Reb</strong></td>
<td><strong>FTR</strong></td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="rowOdd">
<td >Villanova</td>
<td >80</td>
<td >1.15</td>
<td >0.582</td>
<td >0.276</td>
<td >0.441</td>
<td >0.714</td>
</tr>
<tr class="rowEven">
<td >Louisville</td>
<td >80</td>
<td >1.05</td>
<td >0.375</td>
<td >0.276</td>
<td >0.523</td>
<td >0.650</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>It&#8217;s impossible to get a full grasp of how the game was played from the final score &#8212; or even the Four Factors above &#8212; but the one thing that is easy to see is that this game was foul-marred. Ten players on each team played at least five minutes, and all but one &#8212; Louisville&#8217;s Reginald Delk &#8212; committed at least two fouls. Nine players committed at least four fouls.<span id="more-1629"></span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Was the game that physical? I suppose. Louisville plays a style that promotes reaching in and aggressive on-ball defense, and this was not a night when the officials &#8212; John Cahill, Karl Hess and Michael Stephens &#8212; elected to permit such aggression. Villanova was the perfect counterpart to Louisville to create a foul-filled game. The Wildcats are the only Big East team that sends its opponents to the line more often than Louisville does.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The fouls resulted in those 94 free throws, and the two teams combined to make 74 of them, an impressive 78.7-percent success rate. Villanova (first) and Louisville (fifth) are among the best Big East teams at shooting free-throws, and that was evident on Monday night. The Cardinals&#8217; Samardo Samuels made all 13 of his free-throw attempts to help Louisville convert 39-of-45.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>What is not evident from the final score or the Four Factors is how thoroughly Louisville controlled the game in the first half. With 5:30 to play in the first half, the Cardinals led, 38-21, and Villanova found itself unable to even advance the ball into the frontcourt. The Wildcats committed 17 first-half turnovers, as it didn&#8217;t appear they had any clue how to approach Louisville&#8217;s defense. With the short turnaround after Saturday&#8217;s win over Marquette, it&#8217;s understandable that Villanova was unable to fully internalize the gameplan, but a veteran team should not have been so flustered by a defense it had seen several times before.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The last five minutes of the first half, though, was perhaps the game&#8217;s most important stretch. Villanova went on a 15-5 run thanks to a series of empty possessions from the Cardinals as well as big shots by Maalik Wayns, Corey Fisher and Scottie Reynolds. The Cats then started the second half on an 18-10 run, and, when Taylor King completed an and-1 at the 14:06 mark of the second half to give Villanova a 57-55 lead, the Cats would never trail again.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Too many threes:</strong> Louisville&#8217;s dependence on the 3-pointer at the expense of interior touches for Samuels ensures that its offense will be inconsistent. The Cardinals have the 15th best (or second worst) 3-point percentage in the Big East (31.5), yet take more 3-pointers than any other Big East team (39.6 percent of all field-goal attempts), an inefficient distribution of shots to be sure.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Edgar Sosa (39.8) and Reginald Delk (45.7) are the only Cardinals shooting it well this season. Every other Cardinal who has attempted a 3-pointer has made less than a third of those attempts. Jerry Smith and Preston Knowles have the track record of good shooters, and Mike Marra has shown flashes, but as long as those players are shooting in the 20s, Louisville will have nights like Monday, in which it made just 7-of-33 3-pointers (21.2 percent) and essentially shot itself out of the game.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>All the while, Samuels had to wonder what he needed to do to get the ball. He led the Cardinals with 21 points and did not miss a single shot from the field (4-for-4) or foul line, but Samuels could only stand and watch as Jared Swopshire, Smith, Sosa and Knowles made just 8-of-38 field-goal attempts. The inability to get Samuels more touches is more egregious when one considers that Louisville is fourth in the Big East in 2-point percentage (52.7), but all non-Samuels shooters were just 8-for-23 (34.8 percent) on 2-pointers on Monday night. There were times when it was evident that Louisville wanted to get the ball inside to Samuels &#8212; he was often fouled on these occasions or forced to pass back out thanks to a double-team &#8212; but mostly it seemed like the Cardinals were impatient, far too willing to chuck up 22-footers.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Toughness:</strong> Villanova showed great mental toughness to battle back from down 17 and overcome its 17 first-half turnovers. Under Wright, the Wildcats are rarely the biggest or strongest, but they always play physically and with toughness, and they never give in. The Wildcats limited themselves to five second-half turnovers, turned around a lopsided battle on the boards &#8212; Louisville had out-rebounded Villanova, 27-9, in the first half &#8212; and let Reynolds take them home. The senior didn&#8217;t miss a field-goal attempt until the closing minutes, finishing 9-for-10 and a perfect 5-for-5 on 3-pointers. He scored 36 points against a team that had witnessed some of his poorer games at Villanova.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Depth:</strong> Both teams have the kind of depth that will benefit them during the grueling, 18-game Big East season. Villanova and Louisville both play 11 players, and several bench players can be significant contributors. Villanova got 74 minutes and 31 points out of its reserves, while Louisville got 71 minutes and 29 points out of its bench. Louisville gets the most minutes out of its bench of any Big East team (38.8 percent of all minutes); Villanova is seventh (32.6). With two teams that like to push the tempo &#8212; Villanova and Louisville are fourth and fifth in the Big East in adjusted tempo &#8212; and that often attack on defense to the point of fouling, depth is more important to these two teams than most.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Up next:</strong> After being knocked from the Big East unbeaten, Louisville will try to blemish Pittsburgh&#8217;s undefeated conference mark (if UConn doesn&#8217;t do the deed first on Wednesday). The Cards travel to Peterson Events Center on Saturday. The Wildcats return home to host Georgetown, which will enter Sunday&#8217;s contest either 4-1 or 3-2 in conference depending on how the Hoyas fare against Seton Hall on Thursday.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Dance card:</strong> Every conference game is crucial for Louisville, which likely needs to finish at least 10-8 in conference to make the NCAA Tournament. Villanova is in position for a very good seed should it finish near the top of the Big East. The Cats should be favored in each of its next five games, which means a 9-0 start isn&#8217;t out of the realm of possibilities. Ken Pomeroy&#8217;s projections put the Cats chances of going through the first half of the Big East season undefeated at about 25 percent.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Cards bombing takes down short-handed Razorbacks</title>
		<link>http://www.baselinestats.com/20091118/cards-bombing-takes-down-short-handed-razorbacks/</link>
		<comments>http://www.baselinestats.com/20091118/cards-bombing-takes-down-short-handed-razorbacks/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 20:40:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brendon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Big East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game of the Night]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SEC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alcorn State]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Appalachian State]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Arkansas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Earl Clark]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edgar Sosa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jared Swopshire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Pelphrey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Julysses Nobles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kentucky]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kyle Kuric]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Louisville]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marshawn Powell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Memphis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Washington]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Preston Knowles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reginald Delk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rick Pitino]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotnei Clarke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Samardo Samuels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stefan Welsh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Terrence Jennings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Terrence Williams]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UNLV]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Western Kentucky]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yinka Dare]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baselinestats.com/?p=1478</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In retrospect, it was bad planning that I chose Arkansas-Louisville rather than the game that followed it, Memphis-Kansas, as the first game of the new season on which to take possession-by-possession notes. Still, there&#8217;s nothing as useful as taking possession data by hand to give me a good sense of a team and its players.
&#160;
As [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In retrospect, it was bad planning that I chose Arkansas-Louisville rather than the game that followed it, Memphis-Kansas, as the first game of the new season on which to take possession-by-possession notes. Still, there&#8217;s nothing as useful as taking possession data by hand to give me a good sense of a team and its players.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>As it turned out, Arkansas&#8217; lack of depth caught up with it in the game&#8217;s final 15 minutes, and Louisville&#8217;s 3-point shooting and ball-hawking defense ended the competitive phase of this game. <a href="http://www.cardchronicle.com/2009/11/18/1162848/louisville-smokes-arkansas-96-66" target="_blank">The 96-66 Louisville victory</a>, while lacking the last-second drama of the nightcap of Tuesday&#8217;s doubleheader, still left plenty of interesting conclusions to glean.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s start with the basic tempo-free team box:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table width="300">
<thead>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><strong>Poss</strong></td>
<td><strong>PPP</strong></td>
<td><strong>eFG</strong></td>
<td><strong>Turn</strong></td>
<td><strong>Reb</strong></td>
<td><strong>FTR</strong></td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="rowOdd">
<td >Arkansas</td>
<td >76</td>
<td >0.87</td>
<td >0.422</td>
<td >0.211</td>
<td >0.262</td>
<td >0.293</td>
</tr>
<tr class="rowEven">
<td >Louisville</td>
<td >75</td>
<td >1.26</td>
<td >0.568</td>
<td >0.132</td>
<td >0.390</td>
<td >0.178</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>For a team with just six scholarship players thanks to a bevy of suspensions, Arkansas did a pretty good job of taking care of the ball against Louisville&#8217;s zone press. Julysses Nobles had just two turnovers in 38 minutes as the point guard facing most of the heat from the Cardinals&#8217; seemingly endless depth of aggressive guards. It was big man Mike Washington&#8217;s careless play &#8212; six turnovers &#8212; in just 28 minutes &#8212; that accounted for more than a third of the team total (16). The senior center was called for three travels and had two shots blocked in Arkansas&#8217; first 21 possessions.<span id="more-1478"></span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Still, Arkansas had 20 points in those 21 possessions and led, 20-19. Much of that was due to a 7-for-12 start from the field, but Arkansas would not maintain the hot shooting.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table width="300">
<thead>
<tr>
<td><strong>Poss</strong></td>
<td><strong>eFG</strong></td>
<td><strong>Points</strong></td>
<td><strong>PPP</strong></td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="rowOdd">
<td >First 21</td>
<td >0.625</td>
<td >20</td>
<td >0.95</td>
</tr>
<tr class="rowEven">
<td >Last 55</td>
<td >0.370</td>
<td >46</td>
<td >0.84</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Arkansas was also unable to capitalize on Louisville&#8217;s defensive overaggression. The Cardinals, who don&#8217;t apologize about their desire to physically harass opposing ball-handlers for 96 feet, committed 24 fouls and sent the Razorbacks to the line for 28 free-throw attempts. Free-throw rate was the only of the four factors where Arkansas actually outperformed Louisville, but if John Pelphrey&#8217;s team could have made more than 17-of-28 free throws (60.7 percent), it could have hung around a bit longer.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>One of the hidden keys to Louisville&#8217;s defense is the referees&#8217; permissiveness. Rick Pitino&#8217;s teams incessantly swipe at guards in an attempt to pick up steals or rattle them into turnovers. It&#8217;s hard to call every hack that doesn&#8217;t get all ball, and even the best referees will miss many, which is part of the effectiveness of Louisville&#8217;s press. The Cards&#8217; most judicious foulers last season &#8212; Earl Clark and Terrence Williams &#8212; were rare in their ability to combine defensive activity without fouling. They&#8217;re now gone, so nights like this, when the officials had a more literal interpretation of the rulebook, Louisville can put its opponents into the bonus early. A better, deeper team might have made Louisville pay for its indiscretion.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>As it was, Louisville put the game away with two runs, the first built around the 3-pointer. Louisville closed out the first half on a 30-11 run across a 19-possession span for each team. Eighteen of those 30 points came on 3-pointers. Reginald Delk hit two of them &#8212; he had a game-high 20 off the bench &#8212; Jared Swopshire hit two, Jerry Smith hit one and Edgar Sosa the other. Louisville shot 9-of-20 (45 percent on 3-pointers in the first half). Few teams, certainly none with six scholarship players, can survive that type of barrage, especially when the Cards follow each make with full-court pressure.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Louisville took a 17-point halftime lead into the locker room but returned from the intermission by sleepily permitting Arkansas to get back in the game with a 14-0 run. In that span, Louisville missed five 3-pointers and had three turnovers.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The Cardinals offense is going to have these types of stretches if it doesn&#8217;t work through Samardo Samuels on the interior. Samuels was 6-for-11 from the field with a team-high seven free-throw attempts, this despite a maddening inability to finish several from close range. Samuels should be the go-to guy in this offense, because of his efficiency and ability to draw double-teams. The concern, though, is that Samuels will not find the right player out of the rotation, as he&#8217;s displayed a Yinka Dare-like assist rate in his brief college career (exaggerating for the purpose of making a point). That will need to improve for Louisville to be more than a 3-point bombing offense with a few fast breaks and dumpdowns mixed in.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Even when the Razorbacks moved within three points at 48-45, it never seemed like they were a real threat to Louisville, and, indeed, the Cards responded with a 17-3 run that put the game out of reach at 65-48 with 11:32 left in the game.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>This run was built on transition baskets. A Delk steal led to a layup by Sosa on a pass from Preston Knowles. Smith stole the ball from Rotnei Clarke, which led to another Knowles to Sosa easy bucket. Terrence Jennings blocked a Marshawn Powell shot, and that led to a Knowles dish to Kyle Kuric for a layup. Louisville is at its most dangerous creating offense out of defense, and Arkansas wasn&#8217;t disciplined, fit or talented enough to work for the kind of shots that the Cards wouldn&#8217;t be able to turn into easy baskets.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>One of the subplots entering the game was how Clarke would do against a talented defense. He had scored 50 in a 62-point win over Alcorn State on Friday. Louisville put an emphasis on finding Clarke in the zone, putting long-armed or lightning-quick defenders between the sophomore and a good look. Clarke still had a good game, making 6-of-11 shots, including three 3-pointers, but he wasn&#8217;t able to free himself up for enough shots. There&#8217;s no way that two other teammates should have attempted more shots than him. Whether it was Pelphrey&#8217;s inability to draw up sets to get Clarke good shots, Clarke&#8217;s lack of quickness in getting to open spots or Louisville&#8217;s athletic and well-prepared defense, Clarke wasn&#8217;t able to make the impact he needed to for Arkansas to be competitive.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Arkansas will get better as it starts to get its players back &#8212; Stefan Welsh should be reinstated for the &#8216;Backs next game against Appalachian State &#8212; but it&#8217;s unclear whether Arkansas will be good enough to challenge for a postseason berth. The offense and defense both have to make a lot of progress, namely in defending the 3-pointer and controlling the glass.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>As for Louisville, the defense looks strong again, especially as Swopshire appears to be growing into the role of a rangy player who can get in passing lanes and rebound on both glasses. The offense will get better as it learns how to play without Williams and Clark. Working through Samuels and depending less on the 3-point shot will help the Cards be more consistent, but the 3-point shot and transition offense will necessarily be major parts of this offense, as they always are with Rick Pitino teams. A little less Edgar Sosa &#8212; 4-for-12 on Tuesday, 2-for-8 from deep &#8212; would help as well.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The Cards&#8217; next test should come at UNLV on Nov. 28 before Western Kentucky comes to Louisville on Dec. 19. Both of those teams defeating Louisville last season. The first matchup between Pitino and John Calipari with their current schools will be in Lexington on Jan. 2, three days after UofL&#8217;s conference season opener at home against USF.<del datetime="2009-11-18T20:41:59+00:00"></p>
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