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Notes: Part of the reason why there are so many changes in this projection is because I’ve switched my model weightings from in-season to end-of-season mode. In other words, I use the proportion of conference, non-conference and total games played throughout the early portion of the season to establish weights for things like conference RPI or non-conference strength of schedule. But I’m finding the full-season projections are a bit more indicative now that we’re so late in the season. The principles are the same, but there is a little more of a shakeup because of that. This is part of why Saint Mary’s drops out of the field despite winning on the road. Now that the conference weights have gone from about two-thirds to full, the Gaels’ conference numbers — which aren’t particularly good — give SMC a hit.

Bracketing Challenges: Two of the most difficult spots to fill in this projection were the last two spots on the No. 2 seedline. Pittsburgh, Villanova and Kansas State were the main combatants for this spot. K-State had a slight disadvantage with just six wins against top-100 teams — compared to 13 for Pittsburgh and 11 for Villanova — but all six of the Wildcats’ top-100 wins are against top-50 teams, and Frank Martin’s team has a 4-1 record against the RPI top 25, which earned K-State one of the two remaining No. 2 seeds. With a head-to-head win and two more victories against top-100 teams, Pitt got the nod over Villanova for the last one.

Moving In as At-large: Connecticut, Florida, Marquette, San Diego State

Moving Out as At-large: Charlotte, Cincinnati, Saint Mary’s, William & Mary

Moving In as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Wofford (Southern), Troy (Sun Belt)

Moving Out as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), College of Charleston (Southern), North Texas (Sun Belt)

On the Bubble: The primary thing that moving from an in-season to end-of-season model did for the bubble was bump Saint Mary’s and William & Mary out and move Marquette and San Diego State in to replace those teams. William & Mary had a loss it could ill afford at Iona on Friday night. The Tribe wasn’t competitive in a 68-52 loss, which will probably be too much of an eyesore for the committee to ignore. Saint Mary’s needs to at least make the conference final, but, based on the committee’s recent handling of at-large candidates in weaker conferences, that might not be enough. Marquette got the road win it needed at Cincinnati after dropping Thursday’s home matchup with Pittsburgh. SDSU won its fourth in a row over Utah on Saturday but will face a very difficult test at Brigham Young on Wednesday.

Connecticut is perhaps the most controversial inclusion in the field, but as the Huskies’ record approaches .500 in conference, the quality of their schedule puts them over the top. There simply aren’t many bubble teams that can boast two top-25 wins and four top-50 wins. Illinois is the only other team ranked 25th or worse in my at-large model that can match UConn in that area. The Huskies have a very big game at home against West Virginia on Monday. Elsewhere, Cincy couldn’t afford a home loss to a team it is fighting with around the bubble, and Charlotte likewise lost at home, albeit to a very good Xavier team. On the plus side, Florida came up with a huge road win in Oxford to all but dash Mississippi’s at-large hopes.

I believe that the only four teams that aren’t in my projection and could legitimately be projected in a field today are the four teams that moved out this weekend. Wichita State, Seton Hall, Memphis, Arizona State and all of the other teams on the outside looking in need at least a win or two before they can be considered more than intriguing.

ACC: Duke continued its winning ways, pulling away from Virginia Tech late in Sunday night’s encounter at Cameron. Winners of six straight since that embarrassment in D.C., the Blue Devils are poised to grab a No. 1 should Purdue fall. The other three No. 1’s — Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky — have created enough separation that one loss would not likely move them down a line. Maryland got a huge home win over Georgia Tech, one that puts the Yellow Jackets in mild discomfort. GaTech, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson and VaTech all have some winning to do before they can feel entirely comfortable, but the standard each must meet to maintain its bid shouldn’t require straining to achieve. Wake Forest lost its second straight on Saturday — this time against North Carolina State in Raleigh — but the Demon Deacons still rate out higher than the other five non-Duke entrants thanks to their five wins against top-50 teams. By comparison, Virginia Tech has four such wins; Clemson, Maryland, Florida State and Georgia Tech have three each.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 2)
Clemson (No. 8, moved to No. 7 seed for conference balancing)
Wake Forest (No. 8)
Georgia Tech (No. 8)
Maryland (No. 9)
Virginia Tech (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Florida State (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)

Big 12: Oklahoma State tried to put to rest any doubts about its candidacy with a home win over Baylor this weekend. That was the first of four straight tough games for the Cowboys who now travel to Austin before hosting Kansas and then revisiting the Lone Star State for a matchup with Texas A&M. Texas bounces back up to a No. 3 seed at the expense of Vanderbilt. The Longhorns escaped from Lubbock with a win on Saturday. Missouri, Kansas State and Texas A&M each avoided upsets against low-tier competition. Not much to see here. The main issues are whether Oklahoma State will slip back toward the bubble and where the top teams are seeded.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Texas (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 5)
Texas A&M (No. 7)
Missouri (No. 7)
Oklahoma State (No. 7, moved to No. 8 seed for conference balancing)

Big East: Lazar Hayward’s 3-pointer in the final seconds of regulation put Marquette into overtime against Cincinnati on Sunday in a game it would eventually win. The Golden Eagles now head to the NYC Metro area for a pair of games this week, first against a St. John’s team that has damaged several bubble teams’ hopes of late and then to a Seton Hall team that will be desperate for a win. The Pirates, playing with a visibly hampered Jeremy Hazell, couldn’t complete a comeback win at West Virginia on Saturday. They have a big week of home games with Rutgers visiting followed by Marquette. Two wins could put Seton Hall close, despite many writing the Pirates off.

Villanova has continued to slip since entering the meat of its schedule. The Wildcats host USF before traveling to Syracuse in a game that could decide the regular-season conference champion. One potential storyline is West Virginia’s rise toward a No. 1 seed. The Mountaineers rate sixth in my seeding model after two straight wins, and they have plenty of chances to impress down the stretch — at UConn, vs. Cincy, vs. Georgetown, at Villanova. A strong finish into the Big East Tournament could allow WVU to nab a No. 1 seed should Purdue and Duke have a misstep.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 3)
Georgetown (No. 3)
Louisville (No. 9)
Connecticut (No. 11, moved to No. 12 seed for conference balancing; seventh-to-last in)
Marquette (No. 11, moved to No. 12 seed for conference balancing; fourth-to-last in)
Cincinnati (fourth-to-last out)
Seton Hall (sixth-to-last out)
South Florida (ninth-to-last out)

Big Ten: Someone needs to explain Michigan State’s continued high seeding to me. I still saw some No. 3 seeds out there entering this weekend, and I expect some No. 4’s even after Sunday’s home loss to Ohio State, but the only reason why is the name on the front of the jersey. The Spartans have exactly two wins against top-50 opponents this season — Gonzaga and Wisconsin, both at home. MSU has now lost four straight against teams with winning records.

Purdue pulled out a win at home against Illinois to maintain its hold on a No. 1 seed. The Illini, despite playing so well of late, remain at tremendous risk of losing their spot in the field. They now visit a Michigan team, which seems to alternate no-shows with great efforts, before finishing with Minnesota at home, at Ohio State and Wisconsin at home. That is not a comfortable finish for a team on the bubble. Elsewhere near the bubble, Minnesota continues to hang around despite that devastating week when the Gophers lost to Michigan at home and then at Northwestern in overtime. A home win over Purdue on Wednesday is just what Tubby Smith’s team needs to get the Gophers back in the mix.

Wisconsin nearly blew a 14-point lead at home to Northwestern but held on for the win on Sunday. Still finding his way after missing six weeks with a broken hand, Jon Leuer looked better, though still not 100 percent. Their record and seed may suffer as Leuer works back into game shape, but Bo Ryan’s team will be very dangerous once that happens. Ohio State continues to play like one of the best teams in the country. The Buckeyes’ don’t have the resume to match warrant a top-two seed, but, after factoring in Evan Turner’s injury and OSU’s splendid play of late, a No. 2 seed is still a possibility with a strong finish.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 1)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Ohio State (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 6)
Illinois (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Minnesota (13th-to-last out)

Pac-10: Finally a weekend when the teams the Pac-10 needed to win did so. Cal recovered from that quizzical performance in Corvallis on Thursday with a 15-point win at Oregon on Saturday. Washington never let UCLA think it was in the game in Seattle on Saturday night, winning by 29. Arizona State had the biggest win of the three, traveling to Tucson and avenging a January home loss to Arizona with a 73-69 victory. This sets up a crucial trip to NorCal for ASU, which ends with a visit to Berkeley on Saturday. A sweep of that trip — as unlikely as that might be — would put the Sun Devils right in the mix for an at-large bid. Washington travels to Washington State on Saturday to start a three-game road swing that will end the regular season. The bad news is where the games are, as the Huskies have struggled away from home this season. The good news is that the three games — which include a season-ending trip to the Oregons — are against the squads likely to finish 8-9-10 in the Pac-10. I’m not sure anything worse than a sweep would put UW in a good place entering the Pac-10 Tournament.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Arizona State (eighth-to-last out)
Washington (10th-to-last out)

SEC: Vanderbilt couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn door on Saturday but still nearly defeated Kentucky in Nashville. That loss drops the Commodores to the No. 4 seedline, but a 3-1 finish would keep Kevin Stallings in the field’s top quarter. Tennessee is on the edge of a top-four seed after a win at South Carolina on Saturday. Temple’s seven top-50 wins to Tennessee’s one gave the Owls the edge for that last No. 4 seed despite the Vols having the better marks in most other areas. At the bubble, Florida’s win at Mississippi was a major step to getting Billy Donovan’s team into its first NCAA Tournament since 2007. The Gators do have a very difficult schedule remaining with home games against Vanderbilt and Tennessee and road matchups at Georgia and Kentucky. A split of those four games would likely keep Florida on the plus side of the bubble. I’m not sure Mississippi State or Mississippi deserves much further mention, although both teams feature the sort of remaining schedule that could allow either to put together a winning streak that would get them back into serious consideration.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 4)
Tennessee (No. 5)
Florida (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Mississippi State (15th-to-last out)
Mississippi (20th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: The Colonial Athletic Association has to wish that Bracket Busters didn’t exist. William & Mary, Northeastern and Old Dominion all suffered losses that hurt both themselves and the league. Virginia Commonwealth was one of the three CAA teams to actually win its Bracket Buster game, but the Rams’ 10-6 conference record now looks unacceptable after the performances of conference mates this weekend. VCU does finish the regular season at Old Dominion, a game that figures to hurt ODU more than it would help VCU should the latter win.

UNI’s win over Old Dominion probably means that the Panthers will be dancing regardless of what happens in the Valley Tournament. Siena’s loss at Butler probably means the opposite. The Saints are pseudo-host of the MAAC Tournament in Albany, and they better win it if they expect to be in the NCAAs for the third year in a row. Utah State’s win over Wichita State means that the Aggies will have a real case should they lose in the WAC Tournament. In the Conference USA, UAB, UTEP and Memphis could all enter the C-USA Tourney on the precipice of at-large bids.

Then there’s the Atlantic 10. There are enough A-10 teams under consideration — seven — that the league probably deserves its own entry. Richmond, Temple and Xavier all look like near locks at this point. Rhode Island is the fourth A-10 team for now. The Rams drubbed lowly Fordham on Saturday, but they face a real opponent in St. Bonaventure in Olean on Saturday. URI has lost to three straight non-Fordham opponents. Dayton’s loss at Duquesne was not the result Brian Gregory’s team needed to solidify its bid. The Flyers still have trips to Temple and Richmond as well as a home game against Saint Louis upcoming. They’ll need a 3-1 finish to feel safe. Charlotte lost by 14 at home to Xavier to drop its third straight and fall out of the field. The 49ers host St. Joseph’s and travel to George Washington this week before the real tests in the regular season’s final week. Of course, every game is a test for Charlotte right now. Finally, after a sixth straight win this weekend, Saint Louis has moved into the last dozen teams out. With games remaining against Xavier, Dayton and Temple, the Billikens could makes things interesting with a 3-1 finish of their own.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Temple (No. 4)
Xavier (No. 5)
Butler (No. 5)
Brigham Young (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7)
Utah State (No. 8)
UNLV (No. 9)
UAB (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Old Dominion (No. 10)
Rhode Island (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
UTEP (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for conference balancing)
Siena (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for conference balancing)
Dayton (No. 12, second-to-last in)
San Diego State (No. 13, last in)
Charlotte (last out)
William & Mary (second-to-last out)
Saint Mary’s (third-to-last out)
Wichita State (fifth-to-last out)
Memphis (seventh-to-last out)
Northeastern (11th-to-last out)
Saint Louis (12th-to-last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (14th-to-last out)
Marshall (16th-to-last out)
Louisiana Tech (17th-to-last out)
New Mexico State (18th-to-last out)
Tulsa (19th-to-last out)