Take a look at the Pac-10 standings and you’ll see a lot of the same numbers — twos and threes mainly. Despite every team having played either five or six games, only Arizona State has a zero, one, four, five or six next to either its wins or losses. Herb Sendek’s Sun Devils are 4-2 in conference after sweeping the Oregon schools this weekend, and they sit atop the Pac-10. A single game separates second and 10th.

In some seasons, this would be a cause for rejoicing. “Look how competitive the Pac-10 is! Anyone can beat anyone on a given night!” And in some seasons, that train of thought might have held water. This season, though, parity is a result of a league full of poor, inconsistent teams delivering high variance in their performances from game to game.

Take Oregon and Oregon State. In the span of 11 days from Dec. 31 to Jan. 10, the following results played out. Oregon swept Washington and Washington State on the road while Oregon State was swept by the Washington squads. Four days later, on Jan. 6, Oregon State hosted first-year Division I program Seattle and lost 99-48, one of the most embarrassing results of the season for any team. Four days later, Oregon State made the trip to Eugene to play Oregon, and what would you guess happened? Exactly, Oregon State won by seven.

The last paragraph included a lot of good and bad, but the non-conference play from the Pac-10 was almost entirely bad. The Pac-10’s 63 percent winning percentage in non-conference games is way off its fellow major conferences:

1. Big 12 – 81.9
2. ACC – 81.1
3. Big East – 80.0
4. SEC – 72.8
5. Big Ten – 71.6
6. Missouri Valley – 68.9
7. Mountain West – 67.5
8. Pac-10 – 63.0
9. Atlantic 10 – 62.0
10. WAC – 60.2

The Pac-10 did play a very strong non-conference schedule — rated second best — but the results were poor nonetheless. The league lost nine of 12 in the Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series, including a loss by Washington at Texas Tech, a home loss by USC against Nebraska, a home loss by Arizona State against Baylor, a 37-point loss by Oregon to Missouri, and a 17-point loss by Arizona to Oklahoma. The Big 12 is good, but those results — along with several others — are just embarrassments.

The poor non-conference play means that the Pac-10 will struggle to get more than two bids to the NCAA Tournament. It certainly doesn’t help the league that Southern Cal, owner of perhaps the league’s most impressive win of the season — a 22-point victory over Tennessee — is not eligible for the NCAA Tournament because of self-imposed probation. Indeed, at 32nd in this early stage of the BTI, Southern Cal has the best ranking in the league.

Without Kevin O’Neill’s Trojans in the mix, that leaves perhaps four teams with legitimate at-large chances. California (36th in BTI), Washington (47th), Arizona State (50th) and Arizona (63rd) all have chances to play their way into the NCAA Tournament, though I’d be surprised if more than two of them have secured bids by the start of the Pac-10 Tournament, in which USC will not participate. The problem is the inconsistency. Arizona State looked terrific in sweeping the Oregon squads on the road this weekend, but the Sun Devils were swept in an earlier trip to Los Angeles. Similarly, Washington appeared dominant in squashing Stanford and Cal this weekend but looked helpless in a pair of 17-point losses the weekend before in Arizona. It’ll take more to convince me that these two teams have turned the corner.

Cal has been an enigma, struggling with injuries this season, and the results have underwhelmed. Cal’s performance in Seattle on Saturday showed that it hadn’t really come very far from the ugly result against Syracuse in New York in November. The offense is terrific, but the defense is very poor. Pomeroy sees Cal as a lot like Villanova in terms of being very strong offensively but mediocre defensively, but I wonder if Cal isn’t more like Notre Dame — very good offensively but terrible defensively. Villanova is on its way to a high NCAA Tournament seed, while Notre Dame is staring at the bubble. The latter smells more like Cal this year, despite the high expectations preseason. The Bears host Oregon and Oregon State this weekend in what figures to be the easiest chance for a sweep this season.

Arizona has split games in each of its three weekends in conference, losing the first game and winning the second. Having already experienced six six losses out of conference, the Wildcats will need to do much better than get splits to keep its NCAA Tournament streak alive.

The unspoken heart of the Pac-10’s struggles has been UCLA’s freefall. After three straight Final Fours and a 26-win season last year, UCLA looks one of the worst major-conference teams this year. Ben Howland’s much-acclaimed 2008 class has been a complete bust as sophomores with Jrue Holliday in the NBA and Drew Gordon off to New Mexico as a transfer. UCLA’s performance in a 67-46 loss at home to USC on Saturday is an indication that things are indeed not getting better despite wins over Arizona State and Cal earlier in conference play. It’s hard to imagine a coach as good as Howland and a program as strong as UCLA staying down for long, but thoughts of a run in the Pac-10 this season are built on folly.

It would have been difficult for a league like the Pac-10 to withstand such losses for two straight years. That the conference did quite well last season despite the 2008 NBA Draft looking more like the announcement of the Pac-10 All-Conference Team was a real accomplishment, but the poor performance in the 2009 NCAA Tournament was followed by another set of losses to the draft, and the handwriting was on the wall for 2009-10.

The Pac-10 will be back soon, and the league is probably better than its awful play out of conference, but it could see itself nearing some ignominious marks in March, challenging last year’s weak SEC for a record combination of few bids and poor seeds. Pac-10 fans will have to find solace in the parity that should give them plenty of close if not well-played conference matchups for the next eight weeks.

Kevin Love, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Russell Westbrook, Lorenzo Mata-Real, Josh Shipp, Darren Collison, Jrue Holliday, Alfred Aboya. That is a lot of talent to replace — five first-round picks — and UCLA looks a bit short right now. Against the Titans on Monday night, only seven players played more than a single minute.

Three of those seven were from Ben Howland’s heralded 2009 recruiting class — Malcolm Lee, Drew Gordon and Jerime Anderson. This was the class that was supposed to limit the dropoff once the Collison-Shipp-Mbah a Moute-Aboya class had departed. The first problem was that the class’ best player, Holliday, went pro after a year. That wasn’t an unexpected development, but suddenly Collison didn’t have a fit heir apparent. Anderson saw limited action last year, and it was not always at the point. When he did play, he turned the ball over too much.

Second, J’Mison Morgan, the No. 3 center in the 2008 class according to Scout, has had almost no impact so far. After playing often and ineptly in early-season games last year, he was a DNP for nine of UCLA’s last 12 games. This year, after playing 12 minutes in a narrow exhibition win over Concordia, Morgan did not play against Fullerton. Of course, Morgan isn’t alone as a slow developer among the top centers from that class.

The No. 1 center in the 2008 class, B.J. Mullens, played well enough at Ohio State to go 24th in the NBA Draft after one season, but most in Columbus were disappointed by his often disinterested performances and the mere 20 minutes he played per game. No. 2 Rashanti Harris is still waiting to become eligible at Georgia State. No. 4 Ty Walker played in just 11 games at Wake Forest last season and is averaging seven minutes per game for the Deacons so far this season. Michael Dunigan at Oregon, Kenny Kadji at Florida, Henry Sims at Georgetown, Jeff Withey at Arizona — none of these guys has made much of an impact so far. That’s the nature of many big men, but it’s certainly hurting UCLA right now.

While it’s definitely too early to say UCLA whiffed on the 2008 class, right now those players are not good enough to offset the losses UCLA has suffered. Players like Michael Roll, James Keefe and Nicola Dragovic came to UCLA were varying levels of fanfare, but they’ve shown the ability to be solid roll players, effective when not asked to carry a large burden. Against CSF, Dragovic and Roll combined to shoot 29 times, and UCLA’s offensive efficiencies suffered (to be fair, Roll was one of the few effective players for UCLA on offense with a 50.0 eFG on 15 attempts to go with five assists and no turnovers).

UCLA has a team of players not good enough or not yet ready to take on a scoring load. The defense looks fine. It held the Titans to 0.81 PPP and forced turnovers on 22.5 percent of possession. UCLA also did well on the boards, especially on the defensive glass where Dragovic grabbed 13 and Keefe eight. But even a defense that good was unable to overcome 5-for-29 shooting from deep (17.2 percent) and a 33.9 eFG.

There are reasons to pick optimism from the mire of this loss. First, the Bruins have had to deal with a myriad of injuries in the preseason, which has hindered a new team’s ability to congeal. Tyler Honeycutt, one of the nation’s top freshman small forwards, is out for a month, and he would certainly deepen Howland’s rotation. This is a team whose offense should improve with each successive game, and the defense is already solid.

Second, this was a particularly poor shooting performance, even with a team this young and flawed. For all his limitations, Dragovic was a 38 percent 3-point shooter on 150 attempts last year. On Monday, he went 1-for-9. Lee has ability going to the rim, but instead he attempted eight threes, making just one. Lee hit on 57 percent of his twos last year but made just 6-of-15 (40 percent) on Monday. Anderson, though not a good shooter, went 1-for-11. A minimal improvement in any of those shooting numbers, and UCLA wins this game, and it becomes merely a close call — like Kentucky’s win over Miami (Ohio) — rather than the lead on SportsCenter for 24 hours.

Third, the Pac-10 isn’t very good this year. In fact, it’s looking more and more like the Pac-10 is the worst of the major conferences. That means, unlike in recent years, UCLA will not need to be quite as good to win conference games. Matchups with Washington State, Stanford and USC don’t look as daunting as in recent seasons. UCLA is clearly a step behind Cal and Washington, but the Bruins should still be able to play with the rest of the league. Arizona State looks strongest of the rest of the Pac-10 so far, but the Sun Devils have yet to face a quality opponent. On the other hand, neither has UCLA.

Team of the week: Oregon. After a terrible season last year, Ernie Kent took the next step toward moving on with a 3-0 weekend to start 2009-10. The Ducks were dominant, especially on defense where they forced turnovers on 28 percent of opponents’ possession and dominated the defensive glass. Defense hasn’t been a strength for Oregon in the Kent Era, so we’ll see if this continues once the competition improves. Tajuan Porter hit 5-of-10 3-pointers in the last two wins.

Worst performance: Oregon State. In what might have been the stinker of the week, the Beavers lost by 24 to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. The Islanders are the second choice in the Southland West and have a recent NCAA Tournament appearance, so they’re not a bad team. Still, this was a performance to make folks around the nation to a double-take.

That’s not a typo — 0.63 points per possession. When it’s hard to distinguish the eFG (36.6) from the turnover rate (36.4), something is very, very wrong. There’s not even time to get to the 15 missed free throws. Oregon State’s improvement during last season was due primarily to its ability to make 2-pointers. Roeland Schaftenaar and Seth Tarver were particularly adept. Those two combined to go 4-for-8 on Friday night, but the rest of the Beavers were just 5-for-18 (27.8). No matter what anyone shot, though, failing to even attempt a shot on more than a third of all possessions is going to lead to a loss almost every time.

We know Coach Robinson can get a team to improve over the course of a season, but need he set the bar so low?

Upcoming: There aren’t that many highlights to this week’s schedule. Stanford looks to get back over .500 when it hosts a solid Oral Roberts team on Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, one of the Pac-10’s best, Cal, takes center stage. The Bears were decent but not overwhelming in two wins early last week, and they’ll have to be better against Syracuse on Thursday. UNC or Ohio State will await Mike Montgomery’s team on Friday. Finally, Oregon has a tricky trip to Portland on Saturday night.

Team of the week: Colorado State. When four of nine members begin play with non-Division I opponents, there aren’t many teams of the week from which to choose. So, the Rams get the nod for a pair of blowout wins followed by a respectable loss at Oregon. Picked eighth in the league, CSU took it to UC-Riverside and Winston Salem State with 28- and 17-point victories respectively. After Oregon dismantled those two opponents, the Rams’ 68-55 loss to the Ducks was a decent result.

With a third game in three days, Colorado State showed signs of fatigue in Eugene. Tim Miles basically has a seven-man rotation, and the lack of depth on the bench showed — Ernie Kent got 30 more minutes out of his bench than Miles did. CSU’s starting backcourt Adam Nigon and Dorian Green combined for 12 turnovers in a game where their team committed turnovers on 28 percent of possessions. The poor shooting, 16-for-41 (39.0 percent) on 2-pointers didn’t help either. Despite all of the poor offense on Sunday, Colorado State hung around against a Pac-10 team after two comfortable wins. Good start.

Worst performance: Utah. What was that?! Utah lost a lot from last year’s No. 5-seeded team, so there aren’t very high expectations, but a seven-point home loss to the team picked dead last in the WAC is absurd. The nation’s best defensive-rebounding team from last season really allowed Idaho to corral nearly 40 percent of its missed shots? 1.20 points per possession allowed is not a good first impression for this year’s Utes.

Upcoming: On Monday, TCU hosts Cal State-Northridge in the first round of the NIT Season Tip-off. CSN, you may remember, pushed Memphis to the edge in a 2/15 game in the NCAA Tournament last March. San Diego State heads to St. Mary’s for an NIT rematch sans Patty Mills. SDSU defeated the Gaels in March. Utah tries to get back on track on Wednesday when it hosts Utah State. In another intrastate battle, UNLV hosts Nevada that same night. On Saturday, TCU visits Nebraska, and UNLV hosts Southern Illinois.

• ACC
• Big 12
• Big East
• Big Ten
• Pac-10
• SEC
• Mid-Majors

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

ACC

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed.

North Carolina (10-6; 28.7): The preseason rankings of this UNC team do seem a bit lofty considering the lack of experience in Chapel Hill, but the talent is certainly there. Roy Williams can throw Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, Tyler Zeller and freshman John Henson into a potentially lethal frontcourt. If the guard play is good enough to run UNC’s up-and-down attack, this team could be ready to win big soon. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Maryland (10-6; 86.9): The Terrapins have been off the national radar for a few years, but Gary Williams has a team good enough to matter again. Led by Greivis Vasquez, the backcourt is terrific, but the lack of size in the frontcourt should keep Maryland from being an elite team. NCAA No. 5 seed.

Clemson (10-6; 57.2): The Tigers have become the college basketball version of Ohio State. There’s not a lot of respect for Oliver Purnell’s team after another fast start followed by a long, slow fade, but the Tigers have brought in a very good recruiting class to surround Trevor Booker and Demontez Stitt. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Georgia Tech (9-7; 69.8): With Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors, there aren’t a lot of frontcourts excited about matching up with the Yellow Jackets. But the recent underachieving seasons will haunt Paul Hewitt unless he can turn this team into a top-20 club. The talent is definitely there. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Florida State (8-8; 64.0): Toney Douglas may have been the most valuable player in the ACC last season, and he’s gone, but Leonard Hamilton has brought in a stud recruit — Michael Snaer — and returns most of the rest of the team that achieved a No. 5 seed in last year’s tournament. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Wake Forest (8-8; 56.9): The Deacons’ two best players are gone, but a couple of great recruiting classes made sure that plenty of talent remains. This needs to be the year that Al-Farouq Aminu emerges as a force for WF to place this high. NCAA No. 9 seed.

Boston College (7-9; 77.1): Everyone’s back but Tyrese Rice, and some consider that departure a blessing, but the Eagles will be hard-pressed to replace everything he did on offense. And that’s important, considering how offense-dependent Al Skinner’s teams tend to be. If they can spread Rice’s load around efficiently, the Eagles will be in position to make another NCAA Tournament. NIT.

Virginia Tech (7-9; 66.9): Seth Greenberg has had teams good enough to make the NCAAs the last two seasons and come up just short. This team brings back three starters and is certainly good enough to get in the field, but there is just so much competition in the league. Much like last season with FSU, who entered it with lowered expectations after a couple of recent near misses, VaTech may surprise and nab a bid this season. NIT.

Miami (6-10; 48.3): Last year was the year for Frank Haith to get the Hurricanes into the Sweet 16, but things fell apart in conference play. There’s still enough returning to be competitive but more than enough holes to think the NCAA Tournament isn’t in the near future. NIT.

Virginia (6-10; 90.6): The Cavs will be better this season, but there doesn’t appear to be enough depth in the talent base to support Sylvan Landesburg and make UVa truly competitive. An NIT bid would be a terrific accomplishment, but I think the Cavaliers end up just short. No postseason.

North Carolina State (3-13; 47.1): The bar is so low for Sidney that even a 10th- or 11th-place finish would be a pleasant surprise. The Wolfpack does have a nice recruiting class coming in, but the best of the bunch — Lorenzo Brown — will be spending the year in prep school. No postseason.

Big 12

Kansas (14-2; 100.0): There aren’t any questions left about whether Bill Self can win big, and there aren’t many questions about the talent in Lawrence. Much like UNC a year ago, this team will be judged by what it does in March, even if a 30-win season precedes the NCAAs. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Texas (12-4; 75.1): After underachieving last season, Rick Barnes brings back about as stacked a team as you’ll see in college basketball. With Dexter Pittman and Damion James in the frontcourt and Avery Bradley in the backcourt, this team will be a handful on both ends of the floor. Oh, and there are 11 other players good enough to see ample run. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Texas A&M (10-6; 72.1): The Big 12’s consistent overachievers, Mark Turgeon’s Aggies have enough experience to make them an annoyance for the league’s best teams, especially if they’re able to weather the loss of Chinemelu Elonu to the NBA. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Kansas State (10-6; 66.4): The folks in Manhattan have now been witnesses to three straight 20-win seasons, and this team may be the best of the bunch. With Denis Clemente running the show and plenty of talent around him, Frank Martin should get the Wildcats back to the NCAAs for the second time in three seasons. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Oklahoma (9-7; 39.3): This is Willie Warren’s show now, and the point guard is good enough to get this team into the NCAA Tournament with minimal help. The Sooners will struggle on the glass, but Jeff Capel should have them back in the NCAAs again nevertheless. NCAA No. 10 seed.

Oklahoma State (8-8; 54.3): Travis Ford lost four players from last year’s rotation, but James Anderson returns along with a terrific set of newcomers. It took OSU time to get used to Ford’s system, but a year in, the Cowboys should avoid last year’s slow start even with less experience. NCAA No. 11 seed.

Missouri (8-8; 55.6): The losses of Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll are massive, but Missouri is built on depth, and the Tigers should have enough to hang around NCAA consideration this winter. It will be up to J.T. Tiller and Zaire Taylor to handle a much larger load on offense. NIT.

Baylor (6-10; 44.2): The Bears were expected to compete for the Sweet 16 last season but ended up in the NIT final. This year, Scott Drew has to replace a lot of talent and experience with three starters gone. LaceDarius Dunn’s emergence as a star is Step No. 1 toward the Bears competing for an NCAA bid. NIT.

Iowa State (6-10; 77.1): Greg McDermott expects to have his best team in Ames, but, considering he hasn’t won more than six league games in any of his first three seasons, “best” doesn’t really mean a lot. Without someone to help out Craig Brackins, the Cyclones’ offense will continue to come up short. NIT.

Texas Tech (4-12; 71.2): Pat Knight implemented a new run-and-gun system, but a 3-13 record showed that it paid few dividends. Knight has some nice pieces, including Mike Singletary, coming back, but his team will need to be better than “nice” to compete with that Big 12 South schedule. No postseason.

Colorado (4-12; 89.7): This would appear to be a good opportunity for Jeff Bzdelik to set a tenure-high in conference wins. The Buffaloes have won just four Big 12 games in Bzdelik’s first two years, and I predict they will match that this season. We’ll see whether Year 3 has talent ready to complement Cory Higgins. No postseason.

Nebraska (4-12; 39.1): Few coaches lost as much as Doc Sadler did in Lincoln, and it’ll be hard to put together a competitive roster with a lack of impact recruits. Finishing in the league’s top 10 would be a noteworthy accomplishment for this group this winter. No postseason.

Big East

West Virginia (14-4; 81.8): The difference between West Virginia ending this season in a second-round flameout instead of in the Final Four is all in the point guard. Darryl Bryant played well for much of last season but showed he was unable to run a consistent offense in several big spots. If either he or Joe Mazzulla can get this offense flowing, there is enough talent for the ‘Neers to be scary good. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Villanova (13-5; 63.6): The Wildcats are the popular choice to win the Big East, and they may in fact do that, but they’ll need to first replace what Dwayne Anderson and Dante Cunningham took with them from last year’s team. Without those two to hit the glass, a lot of pressure falls on Mouphtaou Yarou, the 6-foot-9 freshman. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Georgetown (12-6; 68.0): I’m willing to chalk up the last two months of last season as merely an aberration for John Thompson III’s Hoyas. With a terrific nucleus returning — Greg Monroe, Austin Freeman, Chris Wright — and enough pieces around those three, the Hoyas are good enough to challenge for the Big East. NCAA No. 4 seed.

Connecticut (12-6; 37.9): Despite heavy losses, we should expect Jim Calhoun’s Huskies to be good immediately this winter. Kemba Walker and Jerome Dyson form a dynamic backcourt, while Stanley Robinson and some tantalizing young frontcourt talents will do the dirty work inside. No. 4 seed.

Louisville (11-7; 52.0): The Cardinals need Samardo Samuels to dominate in the post if they are to be an efficient offensive team. With so much experience in the backcourt and athleticism in the frontcourt, the defense should be typically strong. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Seton Hall (11-7; 82.9): Every year, Seton Hall exceeds its preseason projection, and this year should be no different. Bobby Gonzalez’s Pirates are picked 10th in the league despite losing only one key player — Paul Gause — and adding three impact transfers, notably Herb Pope and Keon Lawrence. It’s as if his fellow coaches are begging Gonzo to overachieve. NCAA No. 10 seed.

Cincinnati (10-8; 78.8): With Lance Stephenson now cleared to play, everything is in line for Cincinnati’s first NCAA Tournament berth as a member of the Big East. It’s easy to forget that point guard Cashmere Wright entered last preseason as one of the league’s top newcomers before tearing his knee and missing the season. He’s back now, too, along with Deonta Vaughn and enough good players that UC has few excuses not to make the Dance. NCAA No. 11 seed.

Pittsburgh (9-9; 35.2): It’s very hard to pick the Panthers to not make the field after being one of the consistently excellent teams in college basketball for nearly a decade. On the other hand, talent is talent, and while there are some good players here, it is a tall task to replace the three seniors plus DeJuan Blair, who all departed after last season. I nervously expect Jamie Dixon to make me look foolish. NIT.

Syracuse (9-9; 39.4): Like Pittsburgh, Syracuse also has a lot to replace. Jonny Flynn leaves the biggest hole, one that will be filled by someone who didn’t play for Syracuse last season — freshman Brandon Triche or Scoop Jardine, an injury red-shirt a year ago. The Orange frontcourt of Wesley Johnson, Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson is good enough to make SU an NCAA Tournament team if the point-guard situation sorts itself out. NIT.

Notre Dame (8-10; 55.5): With Luke Harangody back for a final season, the Irish find themselves on the edge of both preseason polls. The problem is that, with each passing year, Harangody has less and less talent around him. Tory Jackson, Ben Hansbrough and Jonathan Peoples make up a solid backcourt rotation, but what of Tyrone Nash in the frontcourt with Tim Abromaitis or maybe Carleton Scott? The loss of Purdue transfer Scott Martin was damaging, but this team didn’t do much for me even before that. NIT.

St. John’s (8-10; 96.4): If there ever was to be a year when Norm Roberts’ program was to make the leap, this is it. With a team full of experienced juniors and in a weakened league, this is the Red Storm’s chance to break into the top half of the league. The offense needs to be more efficient for that to happen. NIT.

Marquette (7-11; 33.6): The loss of Junior Cadougan to a season-ending ruptured Achilles really hurts a team that was already going to struggle to replace the best set of guards to ever form one class at Marquette. Lazar Hayward should put up all-league numbers, because 1) he’s really good, and 2) there aren’t any proven offensive options surrounding him. No postseason.

Providence (6-12; 34.5): The Friars enter the season with only three players who saw any action last season, and all are guards. That leaves large problems on the backboards, but at least the dynamic combination of Sharaud Curry and Marshon Brooks should excite the Friar faithful in Year 2 of the Keno Davis Era. No postseason.

South Florida (6-12; 70.1): Dominique Jones is very good, and Stan Heath has added former Ohio State point guard Anthony Crater as his backcourt mate. If Augustus Gilchrist can be the force many expect up front, the Bulls may have the start of something. No postseason.

Rutgers (5-13; 52.1): The Fred Hill tenure has never quite gotten off the ground despite the string of touted recruits that have landed in Piscataway. Mike Rosario and Greg Echenique will continue to carry the load for a team that has a very difficult time scoring. No postseason.

DePaul (4-14; 61.4): Jerry Wainwright couldn’t have gotten worse news for the short-term of his program than Dar Tucker’s departure, but at least the conference isn’t quite so strong, which makes back-to-back 0-18 seasons unlikely. No postseason.

Big Ten

Michigan State (13-5; 73.7): With a fully healthy Raymar Morgan, Michigan State will have that dynamic slasher that it lacked even in advancing to the national title game last season. That along with Kalin Lucas and a typically stout interior defense has Tom Izzo thinking about winning one additional game this season. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Purdue (13-5; 82.0): Perhaps I’m a fool for this Purdue team, because the Boilermakers were mild disappointments last season. If Matt Painter’s team doesn’t have the frontline talent necessary, a No. 1 seed will look silly in March, but I think a healthy Robbie Hummel plus JaJuan Johnson to go with the great man-to-man defense puts Purdue among the elite. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Ohio State (11-7; 87.8): Evan Turner is awesome — there isn’t much that he doesn’t do well, and there’s a good chance he’s the best player in the Big Ten. Ohio State will need to do a better job taking care of the ball and defending the three to finish this high. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Minnesota (10-8; 90.2): The Golden Gopher train ran out of steam with a 6-10 finish, but the two-year turnaround is still remarkable. Almost everyone is back from last year’s team, and Tubby Smith also adds two top-70 recruits. NCAA No. 5 seed.

Wisconsin (10-8; 79.6): Wisconsin just wins and wins and wins. After a six-game losing streak put last season in jeopardy, Bo Ryan’s team reeled off five straight wins, four by at least 10 points to sneak into the field. There, the Badgers, a No. 12 seed, knocked off No. 5 Florida State in overtime. Ryan does lose two-thirds of his frontcourt, but look for Keaton Nankivil to emerge as the next efficient low-post presence. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Michigan (9-9; 81.7): Like Tubby Smith, John Beilein needed just two years to take the Wolverines from also-rans to the NCAAs. Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims have become one of the league’s best 1-2 punches, and Beilein has surrounded them with good shooters and passers. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Illinois (9-9; 62.7): It was a good bounceback season for Bruce Weber but one that ended with a clank in the NCAA Tournament. Three key rotation players are gone, but Demetri McCamey and Mike Davis lead a solid group of returners to go with a strong recruiting class for a team that should be one of the league’s best defensively. NCAA No. 9 seed.

Northwestern (8-10; 78.7): This may be the Wildcats’ best shot yet to make the NCAAs, but they picked a tough year to crack the first division of the Big Ten. Kevin Coble is one of the best players in the league, and he gives Bill Carmody a go-to guy in an offensive style that doesn’t usually have one. If Carmody can develop a replacement for Craig Moore’s 3-point shooting, Northwestern could break the NCAA Tournament hex. NIT.

Indiana (7-11; 67.0): Tom Crean should have Indiana back to a level of competitiveness this year after last year’s dismal start. The Hoosiers add the best recruiting class in the Big Ten and transfer Jeremiah Rivers from Georgetown. Rivers will bring tough perimeter defense, but the offense, which was the biggest problem last year, will have to come from elsewhere. NIT.

Penn State (6-12; 56.1): The Nittany Lions were a tough snub from the NCAA Tournament last year, but they turned that negative into a positive by winning the NIT. With Jamelle Cornley and Stanley Pringle gone, Talor Battle is the one dependable offensive option left, and he has a decent shot to lead the conference in scoring. No postseason.

Iowa (3-15; 45.0): The tragic death of Jake Kelly’s sister took away Frank Lickliter’s best player (Kelly transferred closer to home at Indiana State). The Hawkeyes’ second best player, Jeff Peterson, also left the program, leaving Lickliter with not nearly enough to compete in a league this good. No postseason.

Pac-10

California (13-5; 93.9): Any year in which UCLA is not considered the Pac-10 favorite is going to be considered a down year for the league, but that’s through no fault of Mike Montgomery’s Bears. We should note that the core of Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson was all recruited by Montgomery’s predecessor Ben Braun, but it was Mike who got them into the NCAAs last year and who should take them further this March. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Washington (13-5; 66.4): After two straight disappointing seasons, Lorenzo Romar parlayed a dynamic freshman and the stout play of Jon Brockman into a Pac-10 championship. Brockman and guard Justin Dentmon are gone, but with Isaiah Thomas and Quincy Pondexter, the Huskies have a nucleus to remain near the top of the league. NCAA No. 5 seed.

UCLA (12-6; 37.4): For the first time since 2005, Ben Howland’s team didn’t win the league or make the Final Four, and he’s lost four starters off of that team. This should be the year, though, when the freshman that made last year’s recruiting class so highly considered — excepting the departed Jrue Holiday, of course — start to make an impact. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Arizona State (10-8; 54.2): James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph are gone, and they will be impossible to replace. But led by Derek Glasser, Rihards Kuksiks and Ty Abbott (currently injured but back soon), Herb Sendek has enough to keep this team competitive, and we all know he can coach ‘em up. NIT.

Arizona (9-9; 45.7): Sean Miller’s first year at Arizona could be tricky, with Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill gone from last year’s dubious at-large selection. Nic Wise is back, and Miller’s brought in a nice recruiting class, which should keep the Wildcats’ heads above water in a weakened Pac-10, but that might not be enough to get them in the NCAAs. NIT.

Washington State (9-9; 42.0): Ken Bone is Tony Bennett’s replacement in Pullman, after the latter put WSU basketball on the map. Bone will field a team that lost four of its top six players from last year’s NIT club. Sophomore Klay Thompson, though, is a star in the making. NIT.

Oregon State (8-10; 89.8): No team made the transformation Craig Robinson’s team did from November to March. An 0-4 start that included losses to three bad teams could not have predicted a sweep of Cal and Stanford, a 7-11 record in conference and a win in a postseason tournament (not that the CBI is much of a title). The 18 wins tripled the number from the previous season, and 18 would be a good goal this season, especially considering the Beavers entered the CBI with just 13 victories. NIT.

Oregon (7-11; 87.5): A year after being a questionable at-large selection to the 2008 NCAA Tournament, Ernie Kent’s team started 0-14 in conference last season. The problems were manifold, mainly a disinterested or simply incompetent defense. Most of that squad is back, and hopefully the returning players brought some defense back with them. Look for Michael Dunigan to break out. No postseason.

Southern Cal (5-13; 39.1): Kevin O’Neill enters an ugly situation in Los Angeles after what will now be considered a very dark era under Tim Floyd. The basketball was good, but the rules infractions embarrassing. This year’s team wasn’t going to bring back much anyway — Dwight Lewis heads the list of returners. No postseason.

Stanford (4-14; 39.5): Stanford started 10-0 in Johnny Dawkins’ first season, but the Cardinal struggled in conference play, going 6-12 thanks to a sieve-like defense. Much of that team has now departed, leaving Landry Fields, Josh Owens and a bunch of question marks. No postseason.

SEC

East

Tennessee (12-4; 100.0): The overwhelming choice to win the East is Kentucky, but here’s a vote for continuity and experience. With five seniors and one of the deepest benches in basketball, Bruce Pearl’s team may be better than the one that earned a No. 2 seed in 2008, though it would be hard-pressed to surpass that seed. The key will be getting the defense to get back to forcing turnovers or to excel in other areas. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Kentucky (11-5; 60.3): With Patrick Patterson and John Wall, there’s not a better 1-2 punch in the SEC, and the athleticism of this team is off the charts. If UK does indeed go 11-5 and get a No. 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, no top seed will want to see the Cats in its bracket. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Vanderbilt (9-7; 91.8): A winning record in the SEC East should be more than good enough to earn an NCAA bid this season, and the Commodores are prepared to do that. Jeffrey Taylor and A.J. Ogilvy are yet another terrific 1-2 punch to go with Wall-Patterson and Tyler Smith-Wayne Chism at Tennessee. With the arrival of John Jackson to go with Jermaine Beal and Brad Tinsley in the backcourt, Kevin Stallings has to be excited about the possibilities. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Florida (9-7; 62.6): With the additions of Kenny Boynton for offense and Georgetown transfer Vernon Macklin for defense and three starters returning, the Gators definitely have enough to be competitive. It seems unlikely, though, that Boynton will be able to replace all that Nick Calathes did or that Macklin can single-handedly make the defense passable. There will have to be improvements and extra contributions from other parts of the roster — I’m looking at you, Chandler Parsons — if Florida is to end its two-year NCAA Tournament drought. NCAA No. 10 seed.

South Carolina (8-8; 77.9): Devan Downey’s decision to return to Columbia means that the Gamecocks have a real shot to compete for an NCAA berth. The 5-foot-9 point guard will mean more to his team than any other SEC player because of what he can do on offense and defense and how much of the load he carries. There is experience and depth around him, which could get South Carolina that extra one or two wins it needed last year to play in the Big Dance. NCAA No. 12 seed.

Georgia (1-15; 61.8): Maybe I’m selling Mark Fox short in his first season, but that record speaks as much to the difficulty of the division as it does to Georgia’s roster. He’ll need more than just Howard Thompkins to compete in the SEC this year, and I’m not sure Fox has much more. No postseason.

West

Mississippi State (11-5; 97.3): Rick Stansbury returns every key contributor from the team that won its last six games to take the SEC Tournament and steal an NCAA bid. It also adds Renardo Sidney and John Riek, though the latter is probably more of a project. With Jarvis Varnado and Sidney in the paint, it’s hard to imagine opponents relishing the idea of going inside. NCAA No. 4 seed.

Mississippi (9-7; 68.6): While David Huertas did decide to go pro early, that 68.6 percent figure is a bit misleading, because Chris Warren missed most of the season with a knee injury suffered in December. The 5-10 point guard is simply one of the best guards in the country, able to handle a heavy offensive load and pester opponents on defense. If he is 100 percent, then Andy Kennedy can combine Warren with the SEC’s best freshman from a season ago, Terrico White, to form an awesome backcourt. Up front, there’s Murphy Holloway, who is efficient and can dominate the offensive glass. This was a difficult NCAA Tournament omission. NIT.

Alabama (7-9; 63.2): Despite Alonzo Gee’s graduation, there’s certainly enough talent in Tuscaloosa to make Anthony Grant’s first season a success. JaMychal Green was terrific as a freshman and should be one of the dominant offensive rebounders in college basketball this year. Mikhail Torrance was also a bright spot in a postseason-less season. The offense struggled, however, thanks in large part to Senario Hillman using too many possessions inefficiently. If Grant can pass some of Hillman’s possessions to Green and Torrance, and perhaps grab the occasional defensive rebound, the Tide should be in the mix. NIT.

Auburn (7-9; 59.2): Auburn’s lack of depth and size should prevent a second straight 20-win season, but the backcourt is good enough to keep Jeff Lebo’s team competitive, especially if they can continue to force turnovers and protect the ball like they did last season. No postseason.

Arkansas (6-10; 84.1): John Pelphrey’s freshman class was a hit last season, but, after knocking off Texas and Oklahoma before the start of conference play, the wins dried up against SEC opponents. It was nice of Courtney Fortson to take such a big load as a freshman, but he’ll need to cut down on turnovers (doable) and be more efficient with his shooting (we’ll see) for Arkansas’ offense to be good enough of NCAA consideration. We’ll also see if Arkansas’ defense can do a better job of field-goal defense. Only six of the 73 major-conference teams was worse in that area last year. No postseason.

LSU (6-10; 41.7): Without any recruits likely to make an immediate impact, it’s hard to see why this team was picked fourth by the media. The Tigers will desperately miss Marcus Thornton’s ability to take and make so many shots — big and small — and Chris Johnson’s defensive presence in the paint. If LSU does indeed finish here, it will mark the fourth time in five years the Tigers have placed either first or last in the SEC West. No postseason.

Mid-Majors

With mid-major stalwarts Xavier and Memphis changing coaches and losing key players and Gonzaga turning over much of its roster, the little guy does not have a standard bearer this winter. Butler might be that team, but watch out for Brigham Young out of the Mountain West. Either way, it seems more likely than not that next March will mark the second straight NCAA Tournament that there will be no mid-major teams in the Elite Eight.

Butler (Horizon; 100.0), No. 4 seed.
Brigham Young (Mountain West; 78.0), No. 5 seed.
Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley; 92.4), No. 7 seed.
Siena (MAAC; 78.9), No. 8 seed.
Tulsa (Conference USA; 80.2), No. 9 seed.
Dayton (Atlantic 10; 85.7), No. 9 seed.
Xavier (Atlantic 10; 51.1), No. 10 seed.
Memphis (Conference USA; 30.7), No. 11 seed.
Gonzaga (West Coast; 31.0), No. 11 seed.
Creighton (Missouri Valley; 71.4), No. 12 seed.
Niagara (MAAC; 84.0), No. 12 seed.
Utah State (WAC; 72.3), No. 12 seed.

* major-conference average for possessions returning is 65.0 percent.

Without a truly elite team and without any terrible teams — excepting Oregon, which is unlikely to make it to Thursday and which has actually won two straight — the Pac-10 should be among the most competitive conference tournaments this week.

• Pac-10 Bracket »

Take it slow: With the exception of the Big Ten, no major conference takes its time as much as the Pac-10. Arizona State, Washington State and Oregon State are among the five slowest-paced major-conference teams in the nation. UCLA has quickened its pace to the point where it is actually in the top half of the conference in tempo, despite Ben Howland’s reputation for being, well, deliberate. Still, six of the 10 Pac-10 teams are significantly better on offense than defense, meaning there might be a lot of highly efficient games played in the 50s and 60s. Washington State’s overtime win against Arizona State in Pullman was the slowest-paced major-conference game this season. Too bad those two could only meet in the finals.

Bubble watch: Two Pac-10 teams have a chance to turn their NCAA Tournament fates from negative to positive with strong performances in the conference tournament. Arizona plays Arizona State in an intriguing 4-5 matchup. The Wildcats lost both regular-season meetings, but both were within single digits and Arizona lost by just two in Tempe on Feb. 22. In that game, ASU had a 67.8 eFG, something Herb Sendek’s team is unlikely to duplicate. That game will be at 3 p.m. ET on Thursday and a win should clinch Zona’s bid.

USC is the other team that can make the NCAA field with a deep run in the tourney, and the Trojans will be playing in its hometown, as the Staples Center is hosting the event. USC opens up with Cal, a team the Trojans defeated by 11 at the Galen Center and lost to in overtime in Berkeley. USC really hurt the Bears on the boards in both games — Cal’s ability to check Taj Gibson on the glass will be key — but the first was highly defensive and the second highly offensive. USC’s 59.4 eFG in the loss at Cal was its second best shooting performance of the Pac-10 schedule. That game is at 9 p.m. on Thursday. Even if USC defeats Cal, the Trojans are likely to need a second win to make the field. USC lost twice to UCLA — its semifinal opponent should both teams win in the quarters. The game at USC was close, but the one at UCLA was not. USC’s offense had its second worst offensive performance of the season — the worst was at Washington — in the trip to Pauley.

Cougar alert: Washington State is playing great basketball. In fact, if the Cougars had managed to defeat Washington on Saturday, they would have been in the bubble discussion. But Tony Bennett’s team lost that game after consecutive wins at UCLA and at home to Arizona and Arizona State. WSU is a team of extremes — very slow pace, no offensive rebounding, all defensive rebounding, no free throws, no forced turnovers, great interior field-goal defense. This has caused some weird results — including the 51-49 overtime win against ASU that saw just 52 possessions and the uber-efficient 82-81, 65-possession win at UCLA, the Bruins’ only home loss of the season (EDIT: UCLA also lost to Arizona State at Pauley). WSU has Oregon in the first round on Wednesday and then UCLA again before potential matchups with any of the three teams Washington State did not defeat in conference play — Cal/USC (in the semis) or Washington (in the final).

Handicapping the field: Washington and UCLA enter as co-favorites. UCLA gets the slight nod because of the hometown factor. The draw slightly favors Washington. Stanford or Oregon State likely followed by Arizona State — three teams Washington swept — is an easier road to the final than Washington State and then either USC or Cal. It’s a large step down to the next four teams — Arizona State, USC, Cal and Washington State. I’d put the teams in that order, since the Bears get USC and UCLA in their hometowns just to make the final and run into Washington or ASU. The Bears did hand Washington two of its four conference losses, which is something to note should Mike Montgomery’s team makes it to Saturday. As far as upsets to look out for, this won’t be a tournament with many heavy favorites in a given game, but I’d give Stanford a decent shot of taking out Washington in the quarters if the Cardinal gets by Oregon State. UW did sweep Stanford, but the two wins came by a total of just eight points, including a dramatic win in Seattle on a Jon Brockman put-back.

With Oregon’s win over Stanford on Saturday, DePaul is the lone remaining major-conference team without a conference win this season. On Wednesday, the Blue Demons led at the half at home against Villanova, 33-25, before the Cats stormed out in the second half to take a 52-44 lead. DePaul got it back to two, but that was the final margin in a 74-72 defeat.

In his post-game comments, Villanova head coach Jay Wright admitted that DePaul outplayed his team, but that’s little solace for Jerry Wainwright and his Demons, who are now 0-15 in conference play. DePaul has one more legitimate chance to win a game before the Big East Tournament, and that comes on Saturday at home against St. John’s. The Red Storm has only won once since Feb. 1 but will probably still be slight favorites against DePaul. Should DePaul lose to St. John’s, the Demons’ last two games present little opportunity for victory as they travel to West Virginia and Georgetown. Cincinnati, whom DePaul lost to by four at home in January would be the most likely opponent in an opening-round Big East Tournament game.

DePaul’s biggest problem this year is that it just can’t hit shots. The Blue Demons’ defense was woeful last year as well, but the offense was good enough to earn six conference wins in an admittedly weaker Big East. But this year, DePaul misses Draelon Burns’ efficiency and ability to soak up positions, and even Karron Clarke was a dependable option in limited opportunities. With Burns gone, an untenable portion of the scoring load is on Dar Tucker’s shoulders, and the sophomore’s efficiency has suffered as a result.

Sophomore Mac Koshwal and junior Will Walker are the only other players who look for their shots, but neither has been proficient. Beyond these three, there’s no one else on the team who has even approached offensive competence this season.

It seems that DePaul is running out of ideas on offense. Despite being the worst 3-point shooting team in all of major-conference basketball (28 percent), DePaul attempted 33 of them against Villanova, making nine or a fitting 27 percent. Tucker has attempted an unconscionable 174 3-pointers this season despite hitting just 27.6 percent. He went 1-for-11 on Wednesday. That defeat did mark just the fourth time DePaul had scored at least a point per possession in Big East play. The Blue Demons’ defense has only held one Big East opponent — Providence on Jan. 3 — to less than a point per possession. (It’s interesting to note that PC is one of the more unlikely conference opponents to hold below one point per possession. The Friars have only had that happen in two other conference games — at UConn and at West Virginia.)

Speaking of the defense, the bad offense wouldn’t be quite so debilitating for Wainwright and his team if the defense weren’t even worse. Except for not fouling very much — which, on this team, probably shows passivity more than it does a particular skill — DePaul does not do anything at even an average level. The Blue Demons are last in the Big East in field-goal defense, 15th in defensive rebounding and 11th in forcing turnovers.

The Demons haven’t played defense at DePaul since Wilson Chandler and Marcus Heard left. Those two blocked shots and dominated the defensive glass on DePaul’s last good defensive team, the 2006-07 club that made the NIT quarters. With their departure went any notion of good defense, as this will be the second consecutive season in which the Blue Demons have had the Big East’s worst defense. This season, the gap between the next worst Big East defense in raw efficiency (Notre Dame in 15th) is as big as the gap between 15th and eighth.

An 0-18 season would put DePaul in unenviable historical company. Here’s a look at all of the major-conference teams from the last 10 seasons who have finished the year with zero or one conference win.

* denotes season still in progress.

Notes on this list:

• No ACC or SEC teams appear on this list, but three teams from each of the other major conferences make up the list of 12.

• Four other teams have gone through the season entirely winless, but two of them — Texas A&M and Baylor — have had subsequent success. Of course, Baylor had a murder scandal, NCAA penalties and a coaching change between its zero-win and one-win seasons, but the program is on track now. At A&M, Billy Gillispie made the greatest turnaround so far — though Craig Robinson is challenging for that honor. Gillispie took his team from 0-16 to the third-round of the NIT in 2005, and A&M has made the NCAAs every season since. Oregon State won’t make the NIT because of poor non-conference performance, but the Beavers have been impressive in conference as the Aggies were in 2005.

• Baylor, Northwestern and Washington State are the three schools who appear on this list twice. Again, Northwestern is the only one of the three to have not turned things around. Under Tony Bennett, WSU has made the last two NCAA Tournaments, including a Sweet 16 appearance last season. Baylor made the Dance in 2008, losing in the First Round. Northwestern is Northwestern, but things are even looking up for the Wildcats, as they join Oregon State as two of the best turnaround stories in the nation this season.

• More good news for DePaul, if not for Jerry Wainwright, comes in the form of conference foe West Virginia, who has gone from 1-15 to perennial postseason winner in just a few years. The bad news is that West Virginia is the only of the three Big East teams on this list to turn things around. USF and St. John’s remain near the bottom of the conference standings.

• As far as Wainwright is concerned, the news is not good. Only four of the coaches survived their doormat seasons by more than one year, and only Scott Drew saw the NCAA Tournament after he suffered his 1-15 season. That, of course, was an extenuating circumstance. Carmody is still around at Northwestern to try to add another name to that list, and folks at NU can provide some Windy City empathy for their neighbors.

Whether as one of the one- or zero-win teams, DePaul figures to join the above list this season. Where the program goes from there is anyone’s guess. The future looked bright upon the arrival of Tucker and Koshwal, but things have gotten worse instead of better. DePaul loses just one senior, so the Demons should improve next season, but will it be an Oregon State-like improvement to 7-11, 6-12, or will it be a St. John’s-like improvement to 3-15, 4-14. DePaul’s fans hope and Wainwright’s job security depends on real improvement as seen at Oregon State and Northwestern rather than mere statistical regression to the mean.

Since everyone’s played everyone else once each, it’s fair to compare the teams’ efficiencies and draw sweeping conclusions based on them:

Offense wins championships: Contrary to popular myth, the UCLA Bruins are contenders for the Pac-10 title because of their offense not their defense. Ben Howland’s team is a terrific shooting club from inside and out, led by Darren Collison and Josh Shipp from the outside and Collison, freshman Jrue Holliday and Alfred Aboya inside. That’s right — the nation’s best point guard is deadly from inside (58.1 percent on twos) and outside (39.3 percent on threes). He also is a top assist man, never turns it over and gets a bunch of steals. Maybe people are just bored with how good he is and how clinical his teams have been for four seasons — or maybe they’re too worried about his NBA prospects to concern themselves with his collegiate dominance.

The other Pac-10 team that appears to have a (conference) championship pedigree is Washington. You’ll have a tough time convincing Seth Davis or a conventional college basketball analyst that Lorenzo Romar’s Huskies actually play defense a bit better than UCLA, and that it’s Washington’s offense that is just a touch worse, but it’s true. The Huskies continue to kill it on the glass, especially the offensive glass behind Jon Brockman, Quincy Pondexter and Matthew Bryan-Amaning. The Huskies, though, have been rebounding well ever since Brockman and Pondexter got to Seattle, so the big difference is in the backcourt where Isaiah Thomas has been willing to eat up a ton of possessions with enough efficiency to keep Washington near the top of the conference in offense.

What the Pac-10 may lack in Final Four contenders it makes up for in conference title potentials. USC and perhaps Arizona State are probably good enough to challenge Washington and UCLA should one of them slip.

Trojans coming on strong: The best defense in Los Angeles and probably in the Pac-10 belongs to Tim Floyd and USC. Only Cal held Washington to a lower offensive efficiency than USC did, and the Trojans are allowing just .956 points per possession in their current three-game winning streak. On offense, USC has scored at least 1.07 points per possession in the last five games for which Dwight Lewis has been healthy. USC has lost to Seton Hall and Oregon State this season, but the Trojans figure to have many more impressive victories than bad losses between now and the end of March.

Junior forward Taj Gibson is the biggest reason why the defense is good with his terrific defensive rebounding and shot-blocking. Marcus Johnson’s mid-year addition as a transfer from UConn has also helped the defense, as he is the most likely Trojan to grab a steal. If DeMar Derozan can ever become the player that he was touted to be, USC may have a chance to snag the league title.

Enough with the Evergreen State!: That’s probably what Herb Sendek is thinking after seeing his Sun Devils’ run at a Pac-10 title derailed this weekend with a home sweep at the hands of the Washington schools. His record against the Huskies and Cougars now stands at 1-10, and it really is the defense that’s to blame for those last two losses. Washington State’s offense is the worst of any non-Oregon Pac-10 team, and yet the Cougars still managed 1.12 points per possession. Two days later, the Huskies — a more formidable offense surely, managed 1.23 points per possession. The conference average this season is 1.05.

Arizona State appeared to be the odds-on favorite to challenge UCLA for the Pac-10 title after ASU went into Westwood and won two weeks ago, but something happened between that signature win and the start of February.

Along with allowing both Washington opponents to run roughshod on the ASU defense, the Sun Devils’ offense — previously the picture of efficiency — suddenly can’t shoot straight. The offense is now looking short of options. James Harden is still getting it done but is not getting much help. Derek Glasser and Rihards Kuksiks are not shooting well and scoring almost never, and Jeff Pendergraph is not so much a post threat as he is a garbage man who can finish on the break and score on second chances and the other opportunities Harden creates. Unless Sendek can find more consistent options to complement his star, ASU may leave its NCAA Tournament qualification down to the final weeks of February rather than spending those weeks competing for a conference title.

Things fall apart: The Cal Bears were one of the nation’s surprises after a 4-0 start in conference that got Mike Montgomery’s team to 15-2 overall. It’s the Bears’ defense that has collapsed since. Cal’s best defensive performances in its 1-4 stretch over its last five games were allowing 1.07 points per possession in a win over Oregon and the recent 11-point loss to USC. The Bears’ opponents are shooting lights-out, and the opposition is also getting to the line at alarming rates. People talk about how well this team shoots — as have I — but it was the defense that led the way in a sweep of the Washington teams on the road, and it’s the defense that will determine whether the Bears can avoid going from 15-2 to out of the NCAA field.

Starting to come together: To watch Arizona in its first seven conference games was to see a team short on depth, one that lacked an identity and that was headed for a poor season. Then, just as Cal and ASU saw its seasons derailed over the weekend, Arizona got its season back on track. Against Washington, the offense was dominant; against Washington State, the defense stepped up. Chase Budinger’s recent emergence from a slump gives the Wildcats the three-headed offensive monster Russ Pennell hoped he’d have from the start of conference play. At least he’s back now and with it the Wildcats’ chances of sneaking into the NCAA Tournament once again.

A tail of two seasons: Craig Robinson and Barack Obama are brothers-in-law. You may have heard that. You may have also heard that Oregon State has won three straight conference games a season after winning none. The in-season turnaround is phenomenal to behold. Yes, USC had a head-scratching overtime loss in Corvallis on the conference season’s first weekend, but the Beavers still had a -.29 differential in a 1-5 start, scoring .89 points per possession and allowing 1.18. In the last three games — wins over Cal, Stanford and Oregon — OSU is +.12, scoring 1.12 points per possession and allowing 1.00. That’s a .41-point per possession turnaround, which is pretty much inconceivable even from year to year, let alone within a single month. We’ll learn how real it is as teams adjust to Robinson’s Princeton offense the second time around.

Speaking of slow paces: Washington State doesn’t run a Princeton or Princeton-modified offense, but that doesn’t stop the Cougs from taking things slow. The last time Tony Bennett’s Cougars played a game that had more than 65 possessions and didn’t go into overtime was when they were Dick Bennett’s Cougars on Jan. 7, 2006. With the slow pace and WSU’s terrific defense, only once have either the Cougars or their opponent scored even 70 points in a Pac-10 game — WSU’s 74-62 win at Oregon. The Cougars’ defense is good enough to make the NCAA Tournament right now, but the offense needs to be better or WSU will end up several games short. Freshman Klay Thompson may be the future, but his inability to get to the free-throw line or to get any offensive rebounds has made all those possessions he uses a drain on the offense.

It started so well: To look at the conference standings three weeks into the season was to see Stanford, Cal and Arizona State up; Washington State, Arizona and Oregon State down. A few weeks later and all those teams have met in the middle of the conference. Three one-point losses in his team’s last seven games may have Johnny Dawkins feeling snakebit, but the Cardinal’s weak defense should be getting most of his attention. Oregon State, USC and UCLA ran roughshod all over Stanford, each shooting at least 55.6 eFG (UCLA shot 70 percent, Oregon State shot 67 percent), and none of them turned it over much. Stanford has been giving up high shooting percentages all season, but winning is unsustainable with opponents shooting that well, and the Cardinal will need to force many more turnovers to make up for even its usually poor field-goal defense.

Another Oregon state university is winless: The Ducks are a deserved 0-9 in conference. They’ve only come within seven points of a conference opponent once, and that was this weekend in a three-point loss to Oregon State. Ernie Kent’s team has the conference’s worst offense and worst defense in league play, and while a winless season to match the state rival in Corvallis’ 2007-08 is unlikely, a ninth-place finish is equally so. The defense was pretty bad last year as well, but Tajuan Porter has been unable to take the scoring load left by Malik Hairston and be efficient. And neither Michael Dunigan nor Joevan Catron has been much help either. The offense should be a bit better in the second half of conference play, but that just means Oregon will go 3-15 rather than 1-17. Should Kent be worried about his job? That seems a bit harsh with such a young team, but college basketball is an unyielding business.

Handicapping the rest of the season: If I had to put odds on the Pac-10 title right now, I’d put UCLA at 40 percent, Washington at 30 percent, USC at 20 percent and the field — mainly ASU — at 10 percent. All four of those teams figure to make the NCAA Tournament, and I’d guess Arizona and Cal fight for a fifth bid. Their rematch in Tucson on Mar. 5 may be the tiebreaker. The Pac-10 doesn’t figure to produce any Final Four teams — and maybe not even an Elite Eight club — but it could feature a three- or four-team race for the title and a lot of fun — albeit slow-paced — matchups.