Writing nice things about two Pac-10 teams

After two years in which the best Pac-10 players were also the best players in the nation, everyone knows the struggles the league has suffered this season. There’s no reason to post the litany of embarrassments the Pac-10 has suffered this season, as the conference has become a national punchline. Lost, though, in all of the giggles and putdowns are the California Bears.

 

Mike Montgomery’s team completed a home sweep of the Washington schools with a 16-point win over Washington State on Saturday. Two nights earlier, the Bears were even more impressive, never allowing UW in the game in a 12-point victory featured on ESPN’s “Duke plays UNC for the first time” Week. That win avenged a 15-point loss in Seattle, a Jan. 16 game that wasn’t even that close.

 

Now 9-4 in conference and 17-8 overall, the Bears are on their way to a Pac-10 regular-season title and a 20-win season despite playing one of the dozen toughest schedules in the nation. Cal’s problem in getting into the NCAA Tournament is partly its own fault. The Bears have yet to beat a likely NCAA Tournament team, going 0-4 against Syracuse, Ohio State, New Mexico and Kansas outside of conference. And, since the Pac-10 is down this season, Cal’s nine wins against eight different league members may fail to sway the Selection Committee. Read More »


Pac-10 proving that parity can come at a price

The NFL sells parity to its fans to convince supporters of poor or mediocre teams that the gap between their team and the league’s best isn’t that large. With NFL teams now challenging for perfect records deep into November every year, the promise of parity isn’t really being kept, but it was always a hollow one. That’s something Pac-10 fans are learning this season.

 

Take a look at the Pac-10 standings and you’ll see a lot of the same numbers — twos and threes mainly. Despite every team having played either five or six games, only Arizona State has a zero, one, four, five or six next to either its wins or losses. Herb Sendek’s Sun Devils are 4-2 in conference after sweeping the Oregon schools this weekend, and they sit atop the Pac-10. A single game separates second and 10th. Read More »


Temple, VCU get big wins; Pac-10 struggles continue

Saturday

 

Saturday’s slight was highlighted by a mid-major battle in Philadelphia between Siena and Temple. The Owls won, 73-69, in what has to be a frustrating loss for Fran McCaffery’s team, since the Saints won three of the Four Factors.

 

Poss PPP eFG Turn Reb FTR
Siena 70 0.99 0.483 0.158 0.324 0.203
Temple 70 1.05 0.557 0.201 0.273 0.082

 

As we continue to see, eFG is the trump card to override deficiencies in the other areas. Siena made seven more free throws, had three fewer turnovers and two more offensive rebounds, but none of that mattered because of the disparity behind the 3-point arc. Siena hit 1-of-9; Temple made 6-of-19. Juan Fernandez was especially big for the Owls, making 4-of-6. Read More »


Undermanned Stanford struggling for answers beyond Fields

I spent some time in Monday’s Pac-10 Week in Review detailing Oregon State’s slow start last weekend in Lubbock, Texas, but the folks in Corvallis have some company in woe 600 miles to the south. With three starters gone and another injured from his first team in Palo Alto, Johnny Dawkins’ Cardinal has started 1-2 after a two-point loss to Oral Roberts on Wednesday night.

 

Stanford started the season with a difficult roadtrip to San Diego on Friday, where the Cardinal lost, 77-64. After returning home with a 70-53 win over Cal Poly, Dawkins’ men lost, 83-81, to perennial Summit League contender Oral Roberts. Considering what Stanford lost, this start was not unexpected, but Cardinal fans had hoped for better, even in a transitional season.

 

To understand the slow start, let’s gain some perspective. The Cardinal was built to win last season. Even after Robin and Brook Lopez went pro in the wake of Stanford’s Sweet 16 run and Trent Johnson’s departure to LSU, Stanford still returned three starters plus emerging Landry Fields. A 10-0 start against a mediocre non-conference disintegrated thanks to a 6-12 Pac-10 record. This was a team with fringe NCAA Tournament talent that wasn’t in the discussion in March.

 

From that team, guards Anthony Goods and Mitch Johnson graduated as did forward Lawrence Hill and reserve guard Kenny Brown. Big forward Josh Owens was supposed to return alongside Fields, but he remains out with an undisclosed medical condition. Owens hasn’t been cleared for practice, and it’s unclear whether he will play at all this season. Read More »


Pac-10 WIR: Divergent starts for Beaver State teams

In sum: The other five major conferences combined for the number of losses the Pac-10 suffered alone last week — three. Oregon State’s offense looked terrible at the start of Craig Robinson’s second season, and Stanford was overmatched on the road at San Diego. On the positive side, Washington and Oregon were dominant in tournaments that they hosted, and Arizona State had the most dominant statistical performance of any team in its 87-35 win over Western Illinois.

 

Team of the week: Oregon. After a terrible season last year, Ernie Kent took the next step toward moving on with a 3-0 weekend to start 2009-10. The Ducks were dominant, especially on defense where they forced turnovers on 28 percent of opponents’ possession and dominated the defensive glass. Defense hasn’t been a strength for Oregon in the Kent Era, so we’ll see if this continues once the competition improves. Tajuan Porter hit 5-of-10 3-pointers in the last two wins. Read More »


Big 12 WIR: Among many blowouts, Tech’s start impresses

In sum: At 16-0, the Big 12 was one of three conferences — along with the ACC and Big East — that emerged unscathed from the first weekend of play, though there were three close calls, all in the state of Texas. In Lawrence, the Jayhawks throttled a not-terrible Hofstra team in Xavier Henry’s 27-point debut. Texas, Nebraska and Kansas State all had impressive performances as well.

 

Team of the week: Texas Tech. It wasn’t a weekend that made folks stand up and take notice, but there was probably a better chance that the Red Raiders would lose one of their three games this weekend than win all three. Tech throttled South Dakota on Friday and then faced, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, fresh off a win over Oregon State. Corpus Christi led at half, but a suffocating defense — something missing in Lubbock last season — helped Tech win, 66-59. The next afternoon, in the season’s first matchup of teams from major conferences, Texas Tech took out Oregon State, 64-60.

 

Teams Poss PPP eFG Turn Reb FTR
Oregon State 63 0.95 0.467 0.316 0.448 0.178
Texas Tech 63 1.01 0.510 0.205 0.241 0.212

 

Texas Tech held a third straight opponent to less than a point per possession, something the Red Raiders only did six times in 33 games last season. They’re still pretty miserable on the backboards, but let’s take one deficiency at a time. It’s a good win against a team that many thought would compete for an NCAA Tournament berth this year. Read More »


Predicting many future events in one large analysis

Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:

 

ACC
Big 12
Big East
Big Ten
Pac-10
SEC
Mid-Majors

 

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

 

ACC

 

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »


Who’s got what coming back?

College athletes are distinguished by their class, and each athlete has a finite amount of time — generally four years — to contribute to a team. Because of the rotating nature of classes, graduations and the addition of new recruits, a season becomes quite discrete.

 

In individual sports like pro tennis and pro golf, the short offseason makes the idea of a 2008 season or a 2009 season functionally meaningless for all but record-keepers. One could make a similar case — if not a strong one — for professional soccer where many leagues run from August into the following May and include various cup competitions and breaks during the single season.

 

I bring this up in anticipation of analyzing who’s back and who’s new on the college basketball landscape for the 2009-10 season. When college basketball writers are formulating their previews, they consider how good a team was last year, how much that team lost and what new additions — redshirts, transfers and recruits — might improve the team’s fortunes. I’m going to do the same thing here, only with an attempt to put a finer point on it. Read More »