January 29, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Notes: First, automatic bids for each conference are determined by conference record with tiebreakers broken by rank in our BTI model, not by head-to-head or other conference tiebreakers. Of course, every conference except for the Ivy League determines its ultimate automatic bid with a tournament, so conference tiebreakers really don’t matter much for our purposes. Second, there is one potential regular-season rematch in the first two rounds, and that’s in the South where Kentucky and Connecticut could meet. There was already a Big East team in the other three spots where a No. 9 seed could go, and the priority is keeping teams on their true seedlines over avoiding rematches.
Breakdown: In the end, I guess all of this was just bluster. The point of this bracket projection — even in January — is to accurately determine what the Selection Committee would do if it had to select and seed the field today. With that as the overriding standard, I found myself unable to move Texas or Duke ahead of Kentucky for the last No. 1 seed. If I wanted to make a bracket of what should happen, we’d have an entirely different projection. UK is still just 13th in the BTI seeding model, but that is a seeding model based on an entire season of play and pro-rated for what’s happened so far. This is a bracket based on less than three months of play, and so sometimes we’re left with guesswork. My best guess is that Kentucky would get the nod over Duke and Texas right now. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged A.J. Ogilvy, ACC, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Monday, Big Ten, Boston College, Brigham Young, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colonial, Connecticut, Courtney Fortson, Dayton, DePaul, Duke, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia, Illinois, Ivy League, Jeffrey Taylor, Jermaine Beal, John Jenkins, Jon Leuer, Kansas, Kansas State, Ken Pomeroy, Kentucky, LaSalle, Louisville, LSU, Maryland, Massachusetts, Matt Painter, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Rick Barnes, Rick Stansbury, San Diego State, Sean Miller, SEC, Seth Greenberg, South Carolina, South Florida, St. Joseph's, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Texas, Texas A&M, Travis Ford, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Virgina Tech, Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, William & Mary, Wisconsin, Xavier
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November 9, 2009 –
by Brendon
Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:
• ACC
• Big 12
• Big East
• Big Ten
• Pac-10
• SEC
• Mid-Majors
With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.
ACC
Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »
Posted in National Perspective
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Tagged 2009-10 season preview, A.J. Ogilvy, ACC, Al Skinner, Al-Farouq Aminu, Alabama, Alonzo Gee, Andy Kennedy, Anthony Crater, Anthony Grant, Arinze Onuaku, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Augustus Gilchrist, Austin Freeman, Avery Bradley, Baylor, Ben Braun, Ben Howland, Big East, Big Ten, Bill Carmody, Bill Self, Bo Ryan, Bobby Gonzalez, Boston College, Brad Tinsley, Brandon Triche, Brigham Young, Bruce Pearl, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Carleton Scott, Cashmere Wright, Chandler Parsons, Chase Budinger, Chinemelu Elonu, Chris Johnson, Chris Warren, Chris Wright, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Conference USA, Connecticut, Cory Higgins, Courtney Fortson, Craig Brackins, Craig Moore, Craig Robinson, Creighton, Damion James, Dante Cunningham, Dar Tucker, Darryl Bryant, David Huertas, Dayton, DeJuan Blair, DeMarre Carroll, Demetri McCamey, Demontez Stitt, Denis Clemente, Deon Thompson, Deonta Vaughn, DePaul, Derek Glasser, Derrick Favors, DeShawn Sims, Devan Downey, Dexter Pittman, Doc Sadler, Dominique Jones, Duke, Dwayne Anderson, Dwight Lewis, Ed Davis, Elliott Williams, Ernie Kent, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Frank Haith, Frank Lickliter, Frank Martin, Fred Hill, Gani Lawal, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Greg Echenique, Greg McDermott, Greg Monroe, Greivis Vasquex, Herb Pope, Herb Sendek, Horizon, Howard Thompkins, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Isaiah Thomas, J.T. Tiller, JaJuan Johnson, Jake Kelly, Jamelle Cornley, James Anderson, James Harden, JaMychal Green, Jarvis Varnado, Jeff Bzdelik, Jeff Capel, Jeff Leo, Jeff Pendergraph, Jeff Peterson, Jeffrey Taylor, Jeremiah Rivers, Jermaine Beal, Jerome Dyson, Jerome Randle, Jerry Wainwright, Joe Mazulla, John Beilein, John Henson, John Jackson, John Pelphrey, John Riek, John Thompson III, John Wall, Johnny Dawkins, Jon Brockman, Jon Scheter, Jonny Flynn, Jordan Hill, Josh Owens, Jrue Holiday, Junior Cadougan, Justin Dentmon, Kalin Lucas, Kansas, Kansas State, Keaton Nankivil, Kemba Walker, Ken Bone, Kenny Boynton, Keno Davis, Kentucky, Keon Lawrence, Kevin Coble, Kevin O'Neill, Kevin Stallings, Klay Thompson, Kyle Singler, LaceDarius Dunn, Lance Stephenson, Landry Fields, Lazar Hayward, Leo Lyons, Leonard Hamilton, Lorenzo Brown, Lorenzo Romar, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, MAAC, Manny Harris, Marcus Thornton, Mark Fox, Mark Turgeon, Marquette, Marshon Brooks, Maryland, Memphis, Miami (Fla.), Michael Dunigan, Michael Snaer, Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Mike Davis, Mike Montgomery, Mike Rosario, Mike Singletary, Mikhail Torrance, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Mouphtaou Yarou, Murphy Holloway, Nebraska, Niagara, Nic Wise, Nick Calathes, Norm Roberts, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Oregon, Oregon State, Pac-10, Pat Knight, Patrick Christopher, Patrick Patterson, Paul Gause, Paul Hewitt, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Quincy Pondexter, Raymar Morgan, Renardo Sidney, Rick Barnes, Rick Jackson, Rick Stansbury, Rihards Kuksiks, Robbie Hummel, Roy Williams, Rutgers, Samardo Samuels, Scoop Jardine, Scott Drew, Scott Martin, Sean Miller, SEC, Senario Hillman, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, Sharaud Curry, Sidney Lowe, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Cal, St. John's, Stan Heath, Stanford, Stanley Pringle, Stanley Robinson, Sylvan Landesburg, Syracuse, Talor Battle, Tennessee, Terrico White, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Theo Robertson, Tim Abromaitis, Tim Floyd, Tom Crean, Toney Douglas, Tony Bennett, Travis Ford, Trevor Booker, Tubby Smith, Tulsa, Ty Abbott, Tyler Smith, Tyler Zeller, Tyrese Rice, Tyrone Nash, UCLA, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Vernon Macklin, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, WAC, Wake Forest, Washington, Washington State, Wayne Chism, Wesley Johnson, West Coast, West Virginia, Willie Warren, Wisconsin, Xavier, Zaire Taylor
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February 2, 2009 –
by Brendon
Bracketing challenges: The distribution of seeds for the Big East continues to be a major hurdle for creating a balanced bracket. Here are the true seeds for the eight Big East teams in the field — 1, 2, 2, 2, 6, 6, 10, 11. That means that seven of the eight Big East teams should rightfully be placed in the bottom half of the four regions. But with only four spots, that means three teams have to move. This time, I moved two up — Villanova and Syracuse — and one down — Georgetown — at the expense of Minnesota and Dayton and to the benefit of Siena. If the Big East were to earn a ninth bid, then the job of bracketing the teams would actually become easier, because a ninth team would give me the flexibility to place one team in the same half of a region as another team from the league. Until then, though, no two teams from the same conference can be in the same group of eight.
The Bubble: There was a lot of movement on either side of the bubble but very little crossover. Georgetown, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State all stayed just in the field despite losses. All three teams were 0-2 last week and will have a tough time justifying a continuance with another loss. The schedule shifts in the favor of each team, so the three must take advantage. The Hoyas host Rutgers and the look for revenge against Cincinnati on Saturday. VaTech has the mid-week off before hosting Georgia Tech next Sunday. OSU hosts Texas Tech for what should be a brief respite before traveling to Kansas on the weekend. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged A.J. Abrams, ACC, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Billy Donovan, Bo Ryan, Butler, BYU, California, Calvin Booth, Chicago State, Cincinnati, Clemson, Connecticut, Connor Atchley, Dayton, Denis Clemente, DePaul, Dino Gaudio, Duke, East Tennessee State, Ed DeChellis, Florida, Frank Haith, Gary Johnson, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Horizon, Illinois, Iman Shumpert, Indiana, Iowa, Jacksonville, Joe Crispin, John Beilein, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Lon Kruger, Louisville, Luke Harangody, Mark Turgeon, Marquette, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Mick Cronin, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Mountain West, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Oregon State, Pac-10, Penn State, Providence, Rick Barnes, Rutgers, San Diego, San Diego State, SEC, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Stanford, Stephen F. Austin, Steve Fisher, Syracuse, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Texas Tech, Titus Ivory, UCLA, UNLV, USC, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington, Wisconsin, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Wright State
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January 30, 2009 –
by Brendon
I’ve been trying to come up with an angle for Thursday’s game of the night — Clemson’s trip to Virginia Tech — for about 30 minutes now, and the more that I think about it, the more that I realize how strange the Tigers’ 86-82 win over the Hokies was.
It was like a series of mini-games with wide swings of momentum on either side. It had two players — Malcolm Delaney and K.C. Rivers — go off for career shooting nights. It saw Virginia Tech pick apart Clemson’s vaunted press and hold Clemson’s usually dependable interior game to just 35.7 2-point shooting, and yet that wasn’t enough for a win. The important differences came in the small things — a couple of key coaching adjustments, a couple of missed layups and a couple of huge jumpers. Read More »
Posted in ACC, Game of the Night
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Tagged A.D. Vassallo, ACC, Cheick Diakite, Clemson, David Potter, Demontez Stitt, Dorenzo Hudson, Hank Thorns, J.T. Thompson, Jeff Allen, Jerai Grant, K.C. Rivers, Malcolm Delaney, Oliver Purnell, Raymond Sykes, Renaldo Balkman, Seth Greenberg, Trevor Booker, Virginia Tech
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January 25, 2009 –
by Brendon
Here’s a follow-up on what I wrote on Saturday nightin terms of the tradeoff teams make in exchanging forcing turnovers for keeping their opponents off the foul line. I was interested to see which teams are best at combining forcing turnovers with not fouling. I created a simple statline for an average game with 70 possessions, 70 points for each team, an average field-goal percentage, offensive rebounding percentage, turnover percentage, etc. Using that statline as a baseline, I was able to calculate the value of a forced turnover (1.25 points) and the value of a free-throw attempt allowed (-0.68 points).
Based on that information, I calculated how many points per game a team gains or loses based only on its turnover-forced rate and it’s free-throw-allowed rate. I’m calling the junk stat ACUSLP for “accurate slapping.” I found that the nation’s two best teams at forcing turnovers without fouling are also probably the two best teams in the Big South — Virginia Military Institute and Liberty. Read More »
Posted in National Perspective
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Tagged Al Horford, Bill Self, Billy Donovan, Clemson, Connecticut, Duke, Florida, Fran McCaffrey, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Illinois, Iowa, Joakim Noah, Johnny Dawkins, Kansas, Kansas State, Liberty, Marreese Speights, Maryland, Michigan, Mike Krzyzewksi, Mississippi, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Oregon, Rutgers, Seton Hall, South Carolina, South Florida, Stanford, Tennesse, Texas Tech, Virginia, VMI
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January 22, 2009 –
by Brendon
Fatigued after a long night of basketball-watching and writing, I’ll try to keep tonight’s edition of “The Nights in Hoops” brief despite a full slate of action.
The biggest story of the night was the fall of the last of the unbeatens. Virginia Tech went to Winston-Salem and knocked off Wake Forest, 78-71, built primarily around good 2-point shooting (19-for-29, 65 percent) and 37 free-throw attempts. Despite making just 22 of those freebies, the Hokies were able to come away with the victory. The 2-point performance was especially notable against Demon Deacons team that entered the game 10th in the nation at 2-point defense (40.4 percent). Read More »
Posted in Reviews/Previews
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Tagged A.J. Price, ACC, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Blake Griffin, Brigham Young, Butler, Clemson, Colonial, Connecticut, Danny Green, Darrin Horne, Deon Thompson, Duquesne, Florida, Florida State, Frank Haith, George Mason, Georgetown, Horizon, Illinois State, Iowa, James Harden, Jarvis Varnado, Jeff Pendergraph, Jodie Meeks, Jonathan Kale, Kansas State, Keno Davis, Kentucky, LaceDarius Dunn, Louisville, LSU, Marcus Thornton, Matt Janning, Miami (Fla.), Michigan State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Missouri Valley, Nebraska, North Carolina, Northeastern, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Pac-10, Providence, Randall Hanke, Rhode Island, Richmond, Russ Pennell, Rutgers, Saint Joseph's, SEC, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, South Carolina, Southern Cal, Tasmin Mitchell, Terrence Williams, Travis Ford, Trent Johnson, Tyler Hansbrough, UNLV, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, Wayne Ellington, West Virginia, Wichita State, Wink Adams, Wisconsin, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Zam Frederick
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