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Bracketing Challenges: This bracket came together well, but there were still a few challenges. Most notably, any of the last three teams in the field could easily be omitted. South Carolina, Texas Tech and VCU have thin cases, but I found them marginally more compelling than Mississippi, Florida, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and Louisville. If the bracket were announced today, I would not be very confident in those final three teams.

The other challenge continues to be in filling out the top four seedlines. Finding the last two No. 3 seeds was particularly difficult with the poor play of Texas and after Wisconsin’s home defeat to Illinois. Still, the full-season profiles of those two teams remains stronger than Vanderbilt, Gonzaga and the others on the No. 4 seedline.

Moving In as At-large: Illinois, South Carolina, Texas Tech

Moving Out as At-large: Florida, Louisville, Mississippi

Moving In as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt)

Moving Out as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

On the Bubble: It wasn’t a good week for most teams around the bubble. Notre Dame, Minnesota, Louisville, Northwestern, Florida, Washington, Oklahoma State and Virginia Commonwealth all suffered damaging losses. Only two of those teams are in this projection. The Big 12 has taken yet another bid, this one ostensibly from the Big East, which has just five teams in the latest projection after the Cardinals’ wretched performance at St. John’s on Thursday night. There are now seven Big East teams within 20 spots on the bubble but all are on the wrong side of it. The Big Ten saw two teams suffer nearly crippling losses — Northwestern at Iowa on Wednesday, Minnesota at home to Michigan on Thursday — but Illinois defeated Michigan State and Wisconsin in the span of three days to leap into the field.

ACC: After a second-straight road win, Duke now appears destined for a No. 2 seed and could even pip a No. 1 seed with a dual ACC regular-season and conference championship. Wake Forest and Georgia Tech are also comfortably in the field and should view No. 4 seeds as achievable goals should they finish strong. Wake had a big overtime win in Charlottesville on Wednesday. At the same time, Georgia Tech was losing to Miami in Coral Gables.

The bubble picture is an interesting one, as Clemson and Florida State continue to jockey on the positive side of the bubble. The Tigers defeated FSU in Clemson on Wednesday. Maryland was off in the midweek and will travel to Durham on Saturday. The Terrapins remain just barely in the field despite a 6-2 conference record. With just two wins against top-50 teams, Maryland will have to knock off at least one of the four remaining top-50 teams on its schedule or risk omission.

The strangest case of any team fighting for an at-large spot may be Virginia Tech’s. Like the Terrapins, VaTech has a lovely conference mark (6-3) to go with a 19-4 overall record, but the Hokies are still on the outside looking in. If Seth Greenberg’s team does miss the NCAAs, it can blame a non-conference schedule ranked 336th most difficult of 347 teams. VaTech does have seven wins against top-100 teams but just one against the RPI top 50 — last Saturday’s home win over Clemson. With four more games against top-50 teams upcoming, VaTech will have plenty of chances to pad the profile, and the Hokies better take advantage.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 2)
Wake Forest (No. 5)
Georgia Tech (No. 7)
Clemson (No. 8)
Florida State (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Maryland (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (fourth-to-last out)

Big 12: I think it’s unlikely that the Big 12 gets eight teams in the NCAA Tournament, but right now it deserves all of them. Texas Tech has surprised most with its play of late — the Red Raiders have now won 4-of-6 after a one-point win at Oklahoma on Tuesday. The meat of the schedule is still to come for Pat Knight’s team, but Tech has four of its last seven at home.

Kansas appears poised to continue its reign atop the Big 12 after a commanding win in Austin on Monday. The Jayhawks have a three-game lead in the loss column and firm grasp on a No. 1 seed. Texas, meanwhile, has hit a crisis point. Rick Barnes has not found a proper mix of his immensely talented roster, and he is now looking up at the top seeds of the tournament. Kansas State is in better shape than Texas, especially with a couple of home games against weaker Big 12 teams — Colorado and Nebraska — coming up. Frank Martin’s team is likely to be favored in its next five games until a March 3 rematch with Kansas in Lawrence.

Texas Tech’s ascension has come as Oklahoma State slips closer to the cutline. The Cowboys have lost three in a row and now face a critical stretch — vs. Oklahoma, at Iowa State, vs. Baylor — where two wins are the minimum requirement. With Baylor and Missouri looking solid, OSU and Tech are the two Big 12 teams currently in the field who are most likely to be sad on Selection Sunday.

Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 3)
Texas (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 6)
Texas A&M (No. 7)
Missouri (No. 8)
Oklahoma State (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for conference balancing; sixth-to-last in)
Texas Tech (No. 12, third-to-last in)

Big East: The Big 12’s eight bids in this projection are approximately as astounding as the Big East’s five. These things have a way of working themselves out by mid-March, but the Big East bubble teams need to start winning. Of the seven Big East bubble teams, only one — Seton Hall — won on the midweek, and the Pirates were the bubble team furthest from the field before that victory and remain so.

USF, Cincinnati and Marquette were off in the midweek, and all face important tests this weekend. USF heads to Marquette for perhaps the biggest bubble contest anywhere this weekend. Cincinnati travels to Connecticut before heading to USF on Tuesday. Notre Dame hosts St. John’s, and Louisville travels to Syracuse before those two teams meet in the Bluegrass State on Wednesday. Finally, Seton Hall may be the most unlikely of the Big East’s Bubble Seven to make the NCAAs, but the Pirates host DePaul on Sunday before traveling to St. John’s next Tuesday. A 2-0 mark would bring Seton Hall to 6-7 in conference with plenty of winnable games remaining.

There are teams in the Big East that aren’t on the bubble, and four of them are right near the top of the field. Villanova’s win at West Virginia made the Wildcats’ stay on the No. 2 seedline a decidedly brief one. Syracuse managed to escape at home against Connecticut to stay the No. 2 overall seed. Truthfully, the Orange would probably need to lose twice to fall off the top line. WVU and Georgetown slot in as No. 2 seeds, although West Virginia is the last of that grouping and probably needs to win at Pittsburgh on Friday to stay there.

Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 1)
Georgetown (No. 2)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 5)
Cincinnati (last out)
Louisville (fifth-to-last out)
South Florida (seventh-to-last out)
Marquette (eighth-to-last out)
Notre Dame (10th-to-last out)
Connecticut (18th-to-last out)
Seton Hall (19th-to-last out)

Big Ten: Illinois has been undaunted by the increase in competition over the last week. The Illini’s offense — led by Demetri McCamey — has spurred a 2-0 stretch that brought Bruce Weber’s team from more than a dozen spots outside the field a week ago to 10th-to-last in the field in this projection. Fellow bubble brethren Minnesota and Northwestern cannot speak as proudly about their midweek performances, and neither is more than a longshot at this point — though the Gophers are the shorter of the longshots.

Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State could all finish from a No. 2 seed to a No. 5 or 6. The Boilermakers have the most impressive profile so far, the Buckeyes the least. But Evan Turner’s absence should continue to boost OSU’s seeding as long as the Buckeyes continue to play well. The big game of the weekend is on Sunday when Ohio State attempts to cool off the red-hot Illini in Champaign.

Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Wisconsin (No. 3)
Michigan State (No. 4)
Ohio State (No. 5)
Illinois (No. 9, 10th-to-last in)
Minnesota (20th-to-last out)

Pac-10: While the nation writes off the Pac-10 of unworthy of an at-large bid, California is trying to make sure that it secures one should a Pac-10 Tournament title not come the Bears’ way. Jerome Randle starred in a decisive victory over pretenders to the throne Washington on Thursday in Berkeley. The Huskies now must be nearly perfect to make the field, and the same could be said for both Arizona schools, which had little trouble sweeping the Oregon schools at home on Thursday.

Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (ninth-to-last out)
Arizona (16th-to-last out)
Arizona State (17th-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee are almost certain to make the field, and UK is looking good for a No. 1 seed, provided the Wildcats have at most two slip-ups from here on out. The Volunteers drilled the Vols on Tuesday in Nashville and can claim a top-four seed with continued quality play. Tennessee figures to end up more in the No. 6 or No. 7 seed area.

The SEC bubble is one of the harder to parse. South Carolina, Mississippi and Florida have borderline cases, but it’s the Gamecocks’ quality wins — Richmond, Kentucky, Florida, South Florida — that get them in right now. Mississippi’s 5-5 conference record in the weaker SEC division isn’t helping Andy Kennedy’s team either. Mississippi State got back in the mix with its home win over the Rebels on Thursday. The Bulldogs own two more losses against teams outside the top 100 (two) than wins over the top 25 (zero).

Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 4)
Tennessee (No. 6)
South Carolina (No. 13, last in)
Florida (second-to-last out)
Mississippi (13th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown: Let’s talk about Cornell. Peer pressure is the biggest reason why I bumped the Big Red from a No. 13 to a No. 12 seed. The Ivy League leaders are ranked in the top 25 and have appeared as high as a No. 7 seed in some projections, and my No. 13 seed was the lowest on the most recent Bracket Matrix. I have no doubt that Cornell is a good team, but I like my teams seeded on the first 10 or so lines to have beaten someone good. Cornell has a total of zero wins against the top 50 and three against the top 100. Cornell’s best three wins are over St. John’s, Alabama and Harvard, none of which is in the mix for an NCAA Tournament berth. In Cornell’s three games against teams with even modestly legitimate chances at making the field, the Big Red lost a close one at Kansas, lost by 15 at Syracuse and lost by 10 at home to Seton Hall. Does that look like a No. 7, 8, 9 or even 10 seed to you?

Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Gonzaga (No. 4)
Brigham Young (No. 4)
Northern Iowa (No. 5)
Butler (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7)
Temple (No. 7)
Xavier (No. 8)
UAB (No. 8)
Rhode Island (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Siena (No. 10)
Dayton (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 10, seventh-to-last in)
Utah State (No. 11)
UTEP (No. 11)
Charlotte (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
Virginia Commonwealth (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Cornell (No. 12)
William & Mary (sixth-to-last out)
San Diego State (11th-to-last out)
Wichita State (12th-to-last out)
Memphis (14th-to-last out)
Tulsa (15th-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Breakdown: After a weekend of travel, I’ll have to be brief. Look for a full breakdown on Friday. Villanova drops to the No. 2 seedline after a lopsided defeat at Georgetown. The Wildcats will have an immediate chance to take back that spot from the team that replaced them — West Virginia — when the two teams meet on Big Monday. Clemson sees another loss drop it near the cutline, and Florida State makes the jump to take the Tigers’ place.

Moving In as At-large: Dayton, Old Dominion (from automatic to at-large), Virginia Commonwealth,

Moving Out as At-large: Cincinnati, South Carolina, South Florida

Moving In as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Northeastern (Colonial),

Moving Out as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Old Dominion (Colonial; from automatic to at-large)

On the Bubble: For the first time, the Big East has something other than eight bids, and the league drops all the way to six. Cincinnati still rated as the 33rd team in my at-large model (top 34 get in), but — now 5-6 in conference and playing poor basketball — UC was not a difficult omission. Dayton and VCU each had impressive home wins. The Flyers blew out Xavier by 25, and the Rams knocked off Old Dominion by 12. Washington inched closer to the cutline with a blowout win over Arizona State at home. Texas Tech and Illinois also made notable moves into the last 10 out after home wins over Oklahoma State and Michigan State respectively. Virginia Tech and Oklahoma also made jumps after home wins against Clemson and Texas.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 2)
Wake Forest (No. 5)
Georgia Tech (No. 6)
Florida State (No. 9)
Maryland (No. 10)
Clemson (No. 12)
Virginia Tech (11th-to-last out)

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Texas (No. 3)
Kansas State (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 5)
Texas A&M (No. 7)
Missouri (No. 8)
Oklahoma State (No. 10, moved to No. 9 for conference balancing)
Virginia Tech (eighth-to-last out)

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 2)
Georgetown (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 5)
Louisville (No. 10)
Cincinnati (last out)
South Florida (fourth-to-last out)
Notre Dame (fifth-to-last out)
Marquette (seventh-to-last out)
Connecticut (14th-to-last out)

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Wisconsin (No. 3)
Michigan State (No. 3)
Ohio State (No. 4)
Illinois (third-to-last out)
Minnesota (ninth-to-last out)
Northwestern (20th-to-last out)

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for conference balancing)
Washington (second-to-last out)
Arizona (15th-to-last out)
Arizona State (19th-to-last out)

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Tennessee (No. 4)
Vanderbilt (No. 6)
Mississippi (No. 10)
Florida (No. 11)
South Carolina (10th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 4)
Brigham Young (No. 4)
Gonzaga (No. 5)
UNLV (No. 5)
Butler (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 7)
Temple (No. 7)
Rhode Island (No. 7)
Xavier (No. 8)
Richmond (No. 8)
Old Dominion (No. 8)
UAB (No. 9)
Saint Mary’s (No. 9)
Siena (No. 11)
Dayton (No. 11)
Virginia Commonwealth (No. 11)
Utah State (No. 12)
UTEP (No. 12)
Northeastern (No. 12)
Charlotte (No. 13)
Cornell (No. 13)
San Diego State (12th-to-last out)
William & Mary (sixth-to-last out)
Wichita State (13th-to-last out)
Memphis (16th-to-last out)
Tulsa (18th-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Breakdown: Perhaps the most difficult aspect to building this bracket was finding that last No. 3 seed. Out of Purdue, Kansas State, Duke, Texas and West Virginia, it was clear that two of them would be No. 2 seeds and three would be No. 3 seeds, but there was no obvious choice to fill out that third line. Just like in the last projection, I went with New Mexico over Brigham Young and any other team — Wisconsin, Tennessee, Baylor, Temple, Ohio State, Georgia Tech — that might have had a claim.

The good thing is that none of those teams had a very strong claim at that spot. New Mexico was the choice because its five wins against top-50 teams was more than any other team that hadn’t been bracketed, except Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, which also have five. New Mexico’s record (20-3), combined with a head-to-head win over Brigham Young, a six-game winning streak and a 10th ranking in my seeding model put the Lobos over the top. I’m not sure what the Selection Committee would do if presented this scenario, but the only other teams I could see them bracketing here are BYU, who — again — has lost to New Mexico head-to-head, or Ohio State, if the Buckeyes were given a complete pass for losses suffered when Evan Turner was injured.

Moving In as At-large: South Carolina, Old Dominion (from automatic to at-large)

Moving Out as At-large: Minnesota, North Carolina

Moving In as Automatic: Stony Brook (America East), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), George Mason (Colonial), Jackson State (SWAC), Utah State (WAC)

Moving Out as Automatic: Maine (America East), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Old Dominion (Colonial; still an at-large), Texas Southern (SWAC), Louisiana Tech (WAC)

On the Bubble: It’s not hard to make a case against any of those last four in. Connecticut is a popular whipping boy with its poor play in January, save one fine effort, but the Huskies still have seven wins against top-100 teams, albeit just one against a top-50 squad. Maryland and South Carolina have pretty weak cases, but the Terrapins strong conference record in the ACC keeps the Terps in despite losing the ACC automatic bid. For the Gamecocks, with a win over Georgia to get them above .500 in conference combined with the win over Kentucky, they squeak in. Florida’s narrow loss at Tennessee wasn’t enough to knock them down over some of the teams nipping at the Gators’ heels.

Heading in the wrong direction are North Carolina and Minnesota, which each had embarrassing performances on Sunday. North Carolina was never competitive with Virginia in Chapel Hill during the second half before losing by 15. Minnesota’s vaunted defense had no answer for Ohio State in Columbus, losing by 22. The Gophers are looking less and less like the team I called one of the country’s most underrated just more than a month ago.

ACC: Duke’s blowout loss at Georgetown means the ACC will have a difficult time getting a team on the top line come Selection Sunday. The Blue Devils appear to be on their way to a six-loss regular season, and that’s simply too many defeats for a top seed. Up next for Duke is Georgia Tech at Cameron, and the Yellow Jackets may be the ACC team in the best position to join Duke on the top four lines of the field.

The ACC is balanced and, as such, it’s going to be hard for more than a team or two to win more than 10 conference games. That should set up well for the league getting at least half of its members into the NCAAs, but it could suffer in seeding. Clemson’s win over Maryland on Sunday puts the Tigers into a more comfortable position near the middle of the seed chart, while Wake Forest inches down toward Clemson after a 21-point loss at Georgia Tech. It appears likely that Clemson, Wake Forest and maybe four or five other teams will finish in the 8-8 or 9-7 range in conference.

I’ve already discussed Maryland, which needs more conference wins — probably 10 — to feel safe because of its poor play out of conference. Virginia and Virginia Tech are still in play, and both have similarly poor non-conference slates to overcome. VaTech’s loss to Miami on Saturday hurts a lot. UNC still lurks, but the Tar Heels will need to pick up the pace to get the .500 conference record that will put UNC in a good spot.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 3)
Georgia Tech (No. 5)
Florida State (No. 6)
Wake Forest (No. 8)
Clemson (No. 8)
Maryland (No. 12, second-to-last in)
North Carolina (10th-to-last out)

Big 12: Kansas inches past Syracuse as the overall top seed after the Jayhawks’ stirring overtime win in Manhattan on Saturday night (and the Orange’s earlier performance at DePaul). Meanwhile, I’ve held the Wildcats as a No. 2 seed despite the loss — neither Duke nor West Virginia was very compelling in this spot. Texas drops to a No. 3 seed after losing its third in four games. With two trips to Oklahoma this week, the Longhorns need to put together a string of victories or risk seeing their No. 1 seed slip away for good.

Missouri and Baylor make nice jumps after impressive wins. Missouri took care of Oklahoma State at home, and Baylor, of course, won in overtime at Texas. The Bears have a tentative grasp on a No. 4 seed, and a 10-6 conference record — they’re 3-3 now — should keep them there. OSU drops but is still in solid position as a No. 9 seed, but the Cowboys have a tricky week ahead, hosting Texas Monday night before traveling to Lubbock to play Texas Tech on Saturday. A&M’s big win over Tech moves the Aggies up a notch. Tech really needed that win to stay in the hunt, though that loss wasn’t nearly as devastating as Oklahoma’s defeat to Nebraska.

Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Texas (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 4)
Missouri (No. 6)
Oklahoma State (No. 9)
Texas A&M (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)

Big East: While Georgetown was solidifying itself on the No. 2 seedline and Syracuse was avoiding a damaging loss, the news was not as positive around much of the rest of the league. Louisville blew a double-digit lead to West Virginia in Morgantown, a win that would have made the Cardinals a very comfortable at-large team. As it stands, they’re among the last five in. Connecticut nearly came back to defeat Marquette but instead saw Jimmy Butler’s game-winning 12-footer put the Huskies on the precipice. In Piscataway, Rutgers likely took care of Notre Dame and Luke Harangody’s hopes of an NCAA appearance as a senior with a 74-73 win. On Sunday, Pittsburgh went down to South Florida and limped away the third straight Bulls’ victim.

One team’s loss is another’s gain, though, as Marquette and USF have now played their ways into a striking distance. The Golden Eagles have bounced back from that awful loss at DePaul and host DePaul this week before traveling to Providence, two games MU should — and needs to — win. The turning of the schedule in the Golden Eagles’ favor could get Marquette back in the field soon. USF, meanwhile, is as close to the bubble (about 12th out) as late in the season as it has been since joining the Big East. The Bulls’ next three games, though, are all on the road: at Georgetown, Notre Dame and Marquette. They’ll need at least one win in three to hang around the discussion.

Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 1)
Georgetown (No. 2)
West Virginia (No. 3)
Pittsburgh (No. 7)
Cincinnati (No. 9)
Connecticut (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing; fourth-to-last in)
Louisville (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Marquette (third-to-last out)
Seton Hall (eighth-to-last out)

Big Ten: Michigan State and Purdue continue to plug along with conference wins. Northwestern hung with MSU for a half but couldn’t keep contact in the second half, and winless Penn State was no match for Purdue in West Lafayette. Ohio State had the impressive win over Minnesota, and Wisconsin was on a bye. There’s a good chance that all four teams end up among the top 16 teams.

After the four definites, though, no one has stepped up. Northwestern couldn’t get a signature, albeit unlikely, win in East Lansing on Saturday. The Wildcats, now 3-6 in conference, face a long stretch of games against teams they will be expected to beat to keep the dream alive, beginning with Michigan and Indiana at home this week. Minnesota, likewise, is below .500 in conference but with its most difficult games in the rearview. The Gophers head to State College on Saturday.

Illinois has an uphill climb despite sitting at 6-3 in conference after Demetri McCamey’s game-winning floater against Indiana on Saturday. With home-and-homes against Wisconsin and Ohio State to come, the schedule is turning against the Illini, and they’ll need at least 11 conference wins to make up for their poor non-conference play. Of these three, Minnesota appears the most likely to make the NCAAs and Illinois the least, though I’d still not put the Gophers at any better than 50 percent.

Bid Breakdown:

Michigan State (No. 2)
Purdue (No. 2)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Ohio State (No. 5)
Minnesota (seventh-to-last out)

Pac-10: Whatever gap California had opened up on the rest of the Pac-10 was brusquely closed by Sean Miller and Arizona on Sunday. The Wildcats’ four-point win created a tie atop the conference halfway through league play. Despite a mediocre 12-9 record, Arizona has enough quality wins to be just outside the field this week. A 6-3 finish to the season will have Arizona knocking on the door once again.

Despite the loss, Cal is in solid shape with a decent finish to conference season, and the Bears are good enough to do that. The only other Pac-10 teams with a sniff at the field are Arizona State and Washington, but both will have to close hard — think 7-2 — to have a legitimate shot at a bid entering the Pac-10 Tournament.

Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Arizona (second-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky got its best win of the season on Saturday at home against Vanderbilt, and with the Wildcats’ would-be No. 1-seed successors — Duke, Texas, Kansas State — dropping like flies around them, Kentucky has a more comfortable hold on that last No. 1 seed. Any of the four No. 2 seeds could eventual supplant UK, but Georgetown and Kansas State each have four losses, and Michigan State and Purdue each have three. None will jump that gap as long as UK continues to win.

Tennessee got a crucial one-point home win over Florida on Sunday, one that halts a potential freefall, at least for now. A Gators win in Knoxville would have put them comfortably in the field, but it instead appears that Billy Donovan’s squad will continue its dance with the bubble into March for the third straight season.

Arkansas continued its campaign to derail any SEC West teams’ chances of making the NCAA Tournament by going down to Oxford and defeating the Rebels Sunday in a game postponed a day by bad weather. Mississippi now has a short turnaround before heading to Lexington on Tuesday. Mississippi State got healthy on LSU on Saturday but travels to Vandy and Florida this week. MSU would be about 18th out right now, but a win at Vandy would close that gap considerably.

Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 5)
Tennessee (No. 5)
Mississippi (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Florida (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing; third-to-last in)
South Carolina (last in)

Mid-Majors: Dayton was one of the toughest omissions this week, as was William & Mary. Despite doing well in my at-large model, both teams have poor conference records for squads in second- or third-tier leagues, and I haven’t observed the Committee showing a willingness to give teams like those the benefit of the doubt in recent seasons. Gonzaga’s loss to San Francisco should be damaging to the Bulldogs, though Gonzaga tends to get a one- or two-seed boost every year.

Wichita State continues to win and appears to be the latest second-best Missouri Valley team that will not get into the NCAA Tournament. Illinois State and Creighton each had strong arguments in 2008 and 2009 respectively, but neither was deemed to have a critical mass of quality wins to get the nod. With their strongest non-conference win over Texas Tech, the Shockers have an even less compelling case than their predecessors.

Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Brigham Young (No. 4)
Gonzaga (No. 6)
Temple (No. 4)
Rhode Island (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 7)
Xavier (No. 7)
Butler (No. 7)
UAB (No. 8)
UNLV (No. 8)
Saint Mary’s (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Siena (No. 10)
Charlotte (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Richmond (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Utah State (No. 12)
Cornell (No. 12)
Dayton (last out)
San Diego State (fourth-to-last out)
William & Mary (fifth-to-last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (sixth-to-last out)
Wichita State (eighth-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Breakdown: This is our first projection of the season, as I like to wait until most teams have at least four conference games under their belts. It’s not until about now that you can really get a good gauge on a team. Everything up until now is primarily guesswork. Even so, there is a lot on this bracket that will look strange come March. The question is what. The answers will be revealed over the next seven weeks. One predictions: the Colonial Athletic Association will have fewer than three teams in the field.

For a frame of reference, in our first projection last season on Jan. 25, Kentucky and Florida were No. 6 seeds, and Georgetown was a No. 7; none of those three made the NCAAs. On the other hand, the Nos. 1-5 seeds all made the NCAAs. The four teams that ended the season as No. 1 seeds were 1, 1, 2 and 3 in our first projection. Ten of the teams seeded on the first four lines of last year’s first projection ended up as top-four seeds by March. So, there is perhaps more stability than one might expect.

ACC: Duke and Texas would have battled it out for the last No. 1 seed if the Blue Devils hasn’t lost at North Carolina State on Wednesday night. The strength of the Blue Devils’ schedule and their quality victories still make them a comfortable No. 2 seed. The other team on Tobacco Road making headlines for losses is North Carolina, which finds itself on the outside looking in after a 1-3 start to conference play. The schedule has been difficult, and those wins over Michigan State and Ohio State could pay off down the line, but it’s not enough right now. Clemson, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech are all looking comfortable at No. 4 and 5 seeds, and any could make runs into the top four seed lines in the next couple of months. Florida State sneaks in despite a weak non-conference schedule that could cost the Seminoles in March. Virginia gets in as the automatic bid, though the Cavs wouldn’t be near the field if not for getting the nod as the top team in the early conference standings.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 2)
Georgia Tech (No. 5)
Clemson (No. 5)
Wake Forest (No. 6)
Florida State (No. 12, moved to No. 11 seed for bracket balancing; second-to-last in)
Virginia (No. 13)
Maryland (third-to-last out)
North Carolina (fifth-to-last out)

Big 12: This may be the strongest league in America this season, and teams like Kansas State and Baylor showed the conference’s depth this week with their performances against Texas and Kansas. Seven bids are a lot — and Oklahoma State’s profile is certainly thin — but this league’s RPI is a good match for seven bids. At the same time, only three teams look like comfortable NCAA Tournament teams, while OSU, Baylor, Texas A&M and Missouri could all play their ways out. At the same time, Texas Tech and Oklahoma are still within striking distance on the wrong side of the bubble.

Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Texas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Baylor (No. 6)
Missouri (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Texas A&M (No. 10, seventh-to-last in)
Oklahoma State (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)

Big East: The top of the Big East should again be rewarded with a handful of very high seeds in March, and Syracuse and Villanova lead the way right now. The Orange is actually my top overall seed with nine top-100 wins and six against the top 50. Georgetown and West Virginia appear likely to maintain very high seeds as well, although the Mountaineers haven’t beaten any quality teams since the year changed. With a 5-1 start to conference play and wins at UConn, Syracuse and Cincinnati, Pitt is in very good shape despite the home loss to Georgetown. Closer to the bubble, Cincinnati is actually in pretty solid shape, recovering from a slow start in conference to get back above .500, and the Bearcats have non-conference wins against Vanderbilt and Maryland. UConn and Louisville, two teams notable for their struggles this season after grabbing No. 1 seeds last March, are still in the field, though the Cardinals’ position is quite tenuous. Both teams are boosted by very difficult schedules — UConn’s ranks the most difficult in America to date.

Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 2)
Georgetown (No. 3)
West Virginia (No. 4)
Pittsburgh (No. 4)
Cincinnati (No. 8 )
Connecticut (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for bracket balancing)
Louisville (No. 11, fourth-to-last in)
Saint John’s (sixth-to-last out)

Big Ten: This conference really shot itself in the foot in out-of-league play, which is why Minnesota and Illinois find themselves on the edges of the cutline. Of course, losing at Indiana didn’t help the Gophers’ cause either, but they are the last team in, just ahead of Richmond. At the top, it might be hard for Michigan State, Purdue or Wisconsin to get on that top line, but all three figure to be among the top 16 in the field. MSU moved up more than anyone from what my model indicated, eight spots from the last No. 4 seed to the last No. 2 seed. Along with the top three Big Ten teams, Ohio State also appears to be top-20 good since Evan Turner returned from injury and could sneak on to a top-four seed line. As for Northwestern, the Wildcats are just 2-4 in conference with an admittedly difficult schedule so far, and non-conference wins over Stanford, Iowa State, Notre Dame and North Carolina State are nice, but none of those teams are in the field or among the last 10 out. Ten more wins are what Northwestern needs, despite what many of my friends seem to believe.

Bid Breakdown:

Michigan State (No. 2)
Wisconsin (No. 3)
Purdue (No. 3)
Ohio State (No. 5)
Minnesota (No. 12, last in)
Illinois (second-to-last out)

Pac-10: Washington’s loss to UCLA late Thursday means just one Pac-10 team is in the field at this date. California is in as the automatic, and the Bears’ strong non-conference schedule means they have more leeway than most Pac-10 teams. With four straight wins, Arizona State is close to the cutline, and Washington still has a real shot. The problem is that losses to half the conference are debilitating, and none of these Pac-10 teams is good enough to avoid losses to all the many bottom-feeders.

Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 8 )
Arizona State (fourth-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky may be undefeated, but the Wildcats don’t have the profile of a top seed yet. The Wildcats’ record gets them on the top line in the third spot, but any kind of rough patch could drop UK to a No. 2 or 3 seed. Tennessee and Vanderbilt are in very good shape in the SEC East, and the two Mississippi schools are also in the field right now. Neither has the margin for error of the top West teams, though I’d expect both to be in the field come March. Florida is really the only team on the outside looking in with a legitimate shot at the dance with South Carolina floating on the periphery.

Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Tennessee (No. 3)
Vanderbilt (No. 6)
Mississippi (No. 7)
Mississippi State (No. 11, moved to No. 12 seed for bracket balancing; third-to-last in)
Florida (10th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: The Atlantic 10 has five terrific candidates for the NCAA Tournament, but Richmond has shot itself in the foot with recent losses to Saint Louis and Charlotte, the latter coming at home on Wednesday. Temple would be in fine shape even should the Owls suffer a handful of losses down the stretch. Xavier and URI are both good squads with losses to Temple and only modestly impressive wins outside of conference, making their margins for error small. Dayton is fourth in line in the A-10, which should get at least three bids.

The Mountain West has three teams on the top half of the seed chart, and the league has a good chance to get all three in. San Diego State is on the outside looking in but already has a win over New Mexico and could find itself right on the cutline this year, just like last.

The Colonial is unlikely to keep three teams in the field, but they’re all in now. William & Mary, Old Dominion and Virginia Commonwealth all have non-conference RPIs in the top 20, but each will need a strong finish in conference. Northeastern looms as the only other true threat at an at-large from the CAA.

With a strong non-conference profile, a 6-0 road record and their only conference love to Gonzaga, the Saint Mary’s Gaels have another shot at an at-large bid from the West Coast Conference.

Bid Breakdown:

Temple (No. 4)
Brigham Young (No. 4)
Gonzaga (No. 5)
New Mexico (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 7)
Butler (No. 7)
UNLV (No. 7)
Rhode Island (No. 8 )
Xavier (No. 8 )
Virginia Commonwealth (No. 9)
UAB (No. 9)
Siena (No. 9)
Dayton (No. 10, moved to No. 9 seed for bracket balancing; 10th-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
William & Mary (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Old Dominion (No. 12)
Louisiana Tech (No. 12)
Richmond (last out)
San Diego State (seventh-to-last out)
Nevada (eighth-to-last out)
Wichita State (ninth-to-last out)

Take a look at the Pac-10 standings and you’ll see a lot of the same numbers — twos and threes mainly. Despite every team having played either five or six games, only Arizona State has a zero, one, four, five or six next to either its wins or losses. Herb Sendek’s Sun Devils are 4-2 in conference after sweeping the Oregon schools this weekend, and they sit atop the Pac-10. A single game separates second and 10th.

In some seasons, this would be a cause for rejoicing. “Look how competitive the Pac-10 is! Anyone can beat anyone on a given night!” And in some seasons, that train of thought might have held water. This season, though, parity is a result of a league full of poor, inconsistent teams delivering high variance in their performances from game to game.

Take Oregon and Oregon State. In the span of 11 days from Dec. 31 to Jan. 10, the following results played out. Oregon swept Washington and Washington State on the road while Oregon State was swept by the Washington squads. Four days later, on Jan. 6, Oregon State hosted first-year Division I program Seattle and lost 99-48, one of the most embarrassing results of the season for any team. Four days later, Oregon State made the trip to Eugene to play Oregon, and what would you guess happened? Exactly, Oregon State won by seven.

The last paragraph included a lot of good and bad, but the non-conference play from the Pac-10 was almost entirely bad. The Pac-10’s 63 percent winning percentage in non-conference games is way off its fellow major conferences:

1. Big 12 – 81.9
2. ACC – 81.1
3. Big East – 80.0
4. SEC – 72.8
5. Big Ten – 71.6
6. Missouri Valley – 68.9
7. Mountain West – 67.5
8. Pac-10 – 63.0
9. Atlantic 10 – 62.0
10. WAC – 60.2

The Pac-10 did play a very strong non-conference schedule — rated second best — but the results were poor nonetheless. The league lost nine of 12 in the Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series, including a loss by Washington at Texas Tech, a home loss by USC against Nebraska, a home loss by Arizona State against Baylor, a 37-point loss by Oregon to Missouri, and a 17-point loss by Arizona to Oklahoma. The Big 12 is good, but those results — along with several others — are just embarrassments.

The poor non-conference play means that the Pac-10 will struggle to get more than two bids to the NCAA Tournament. It certainly doesn’t help the league that Southern Cal, owner of perhaps the league’s most impressive win of the season — a 22-point victory over Tennessee — is not eligible for the NCAA Tournament because of self-imposed probation. Indeed, at 32nd in this early stage of the BTI, Southern Cal has the best ranking in the league.

Without Kevin O’Neill’s Trojans in the mix, that leaves perhaps four teams with legitimate at-large chances. California (36th in BTI), Washington (47th), Arizona State (50th) and Arizona (63rd) all have chances to play their way into the NCAA Tournament, though I’d be surprised if more than two of them have secured bids by the start of the Pac-10 Tournament, in which USC will not participate. The problem is the inconsistency. Arizona State looked terrific in sweeping the Oregon squads on the road this weekend, but the Sun Devils were swept in an earlier trip to Los Angeles. Similarly, Washington appeared dominant in squashing Stanford and Cal this weekend but looked helpless in a pair of 17-point losses the weekend before in Arizona. It’ll take more to convince me that these two teams have turned the corner.

Cal has been an enigma, struggling with injuries this season, and the results have underwhelmed. Cal’s performance in Seattle on Saturday showed that it hadn’t really come very far from the ugly result against Syracuse in New York in November. The offense is terrific, but the defense is very poor. Pomeroy sees Cal as a lot like Villanova in terms of being very strong offensively but mediocre defensively, but I wonder if Cal isn’t more like Notre Dame — very good offensively but terrible defensively. Villanova is on its way to a high NCAA Tournament seed, while Notre Dame is staring at the bubble. The latter smells more like Cal this year, despite the high expectations preseason. The Bears host Oregon and Oregon State this weekend in what figures to be the easiest chance for a sweep this season.

Arizona has split games in each of its three weekends in conference, losing the first game and winning the second. Having already experienced six six losses out of conference, the Wildcats will need to do much better than get splits to keep its NCAA Tournament streak alive.

The unspoken heart of the Pac-10’s struggles has been UCLA’s freefall. After three straight Final Fours and a 26-win season last year, UCLA looks one of the worst major-conference teams this year. Ben Howland’s much-acclaimed 2008 class has been a complete bust as sophomores with Jrue Holliday in the NBA and Drew Gordon off to New Mexico as a transfer. UCLA’s performance in a 67-46 loss at home to USC on Saturday is an indication that things are indeed not getting better despite wins over Arizona State and Cal earlier in conference play. It’s hard to imagine a coach as good as Howland and a program as strong as UCLA staying down for long, but thoughts of a run in the Pac-10 this season are built on folly.

It would have been difficult for a league like the Pac-10 to withstand such losses for two straight years. That the conference did quite well last season despite the 2008 NBA Draft looking more like the announcement of the Pac-10 All-Conference Team was a real accomplishment, but the poor performance in the 2009 NCAA Tournament was followed by another set of losses to the draft, and the handwriting was on the wall for 2009-10.

The Pac-10 will be back soon, and the league is probably better than its awful play out of conference, but it could see itself nearing some ignominious marks in March, challenging last year’s weak SEC for a record combination of few bids and poor seeds. Pac-10 fans will have to find solace in the parity that should give them plenty of close if not well-played conference matchups for the next eight weeks.

Team of the week: Texas Tech. It wasn’t a weekend that made folks stand up and take notice, but there was probably a better chance that the Red Raiders would lose one of their three games this weekend than win all three. Tech throttled South Dakota on Friday and then faced, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, fresh off a win over Oregon State. Corpus Christi led at half, but a suffocating defense — something missing in Lubbock last season — helped Tech win, 66-59. The next afternoon, in the season’s first matchup of teams from major conferences, Texas Tech took out Oregon State, 64-60.

Texas Tech held a third straight opponent to less than a point per possession, something the Red Raiders only did six times in 33 games last season. They’re still pretty miserable on the backboards, but let’s take one deficiency at a time. It’s a good win against a team that many thought would compete for an NCAA Tournament berth this year.

Worst performance: Baylor. The lack of defense kept the Bears from making a second straight NCAA Tournament appearance last season, and it didn’t show much improvement on Sunday. After an 86-58 win over Norfolk State on Friday, Baylor managed just a 71-69 win over Hartford, the sixth-place pick in the American East. The offense scored at a 1.18 PPP clip but allowed Hartford 1.14. Michigan transfer Ekpe Udoh has brought a shot-blocking presence — he had five on Sunday — and that showed up in the Hawks’ 42.9 2-point percentage. Baylor also did a solid job on the defensive glass, but the Bears couldn’t force any turnovers (just eight) or get out on the 3-pointer. Hartford hit 13-of-33 from deep, 39.4 percent. The perimeter defense will need to prove if Baylor hopes to compete in the Big 12.

Upcoming: After a 19-point win over Division II Angelo State on Friday, Texas A&M travels to a capable SMU on Monday night. On Tuesday, Iowa State visits Drake, and Kansas faces Memphis in St. Louis. Wednesday sees Nebraska travel to St. Louis for a tricky road game. On Thursday, Kansas State plays America East favorite Boston University in the first round of the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. The Wildcats started the season with a blowout win over Loyola (Ill.), while the Terriers had a disappointing loss at Iona. Mississippi would be K-State’s likely second-round opponent. On Saturday, Nebraska hosts TCU, and Oklahoma head coach Jeff Capel returns to his former school when the Sooners visit VCU.

• ACC
• Big 12
• Big East
• Big Ten
• Pac-10
• SEC
• Mid-Majors

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

ACC

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed.

North Carolina (10-6; 28.7): The preseason rankings of this UNC team do seem a bit lofty considering the lack of experience in Chapel Hill, but the talent is certainly there. Roy Williams can throw Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, Tyler Zeller and freshman John Henson into a potentially lethal frontcourt. If the guard play is good enough to run UNC’s up-and-down attack, this team could be ready to win big soon. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Maryland (10-6; 86.9): The Terrapins have been off the national radar for a few years, but Gary Williams has a team good enough to matter again. Led by Greivis Vasquez, the backcourt is terrific, but the lack of size in the frontcourt should keep Maryland from being an elite team. NCAA No. 5 seed.

Clemson (10-6; 57.2): The Tigers have become the college basketball version of Ohio State. There’s not a lot of respect for Oliver Purnell’s team after another fast start followed by a long, slow fade, but the Tigers have brought in a very good recruiting class to surround Trevor Booker and Demontez Stitt. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Georgia Tech (9-7; 69.8): With Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors, there aren’t a lot of frontcourts excited about matching up with the Yellow Jackets. But the recent underachieving seasons will haunt Paul Hewitt unless he can turn this team into a top-20 club. The talent is definitely there. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Florida State (8-8; 64.0): Toney Douglas may have been the most valuable player in the ACC last season, and he’s gone, but Leonard Hamilton has brought in a stud recruit — Michael Snaer — and returns most of the rest of the team that achieved a No. 5 seed in last year’s tournament. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Wake Forest (8-8; 56.9): The Deacons’ two best players are gone, but a couple of great recruiting classes made sure that plenty of talent remains. This needs to be the year that Al-Farouq Aminu emerges as a force for WF to place this high. NCAA No. 9 seed.

Boston College (7-9; 77.1): Everyone’s back but Tyrese Rice, and some consider that departure a blessing, but the Eagles will be hard-pressed to replace everything he did on offense. And that’s important, considering how offense-dependent Al Skinner’s teams tend to be. If they can spread Rice’s load around efficiently, the Eagles will be in position to make another NCAA Tournament. NIT.

Virginia Tech (7-9; 66.9): Seth Greenberg has had teams good enough to make the NCAAs the last two seasons and come up just short. This team brings back three starters and is certainly good enough to get in the field, but there is just so much competition in the league. Much like last season with FSU, who entered it with lowered expectations after a couple of recent near misses, VaTech may surprise and nab a bid this season. NIT.

Miami (6-10; 48.3): Last year was the year for Frank Haith to get the Hurricanes into the Sweet 16, but things fell apart in conference play. There’s still enough returning to be competitive but more than enough holes to think the NCAA Tournament isn’t in the near future. NIT.

Virginia (6-10; 90.6): The Cavs will be better this season, but there doesn’t appear to be enough depth in the talent base to support Sylvan Landesburg and make UVa truly competitive. An NIT bid would be a terrific accomplishment, but I think the Cavaliers end up just short. No postseason.

North Carolina State (3-13; 47.1): The bar is so low for Sidney that even a 10th- or 11th-place finish would be a pleasant surprise. The Wolfpack does have a nice recruiting class coming in, but the best of the bunch — Lorenzo Brown — will be spending the year in prep school. No postseason.

Big 12

Kansas (14-2; 100.0): There aren’t any questions left about whether Bill Self can win big, and there aren’t many questions about the talent in Lawrence. Much like UNC a year ago, this team will be judged by what it does in March, even if a 30-win season precedes the NCAAs. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Texas (12-4; 75.1): After underachieving last season, Rick Barnes brings back about as stacked a team as you’ll see in college basketball. With Dexter Pittman and Damion James in the frontcourt and Avery Bradley in the backcourt, this team will be a handful on both ends of the floor. Oh, and there are 11 other players good enough to see ample run. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Texas A&M (10-6; 72.1): The Big 12’s consistent overachievers, Mark Turgeon’s Aggies have enough experience to make them an annoyance for the league’s best teams, especially if they’re able to weather the loss of Chinemelu Elonu to the NBA. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Kansas State (10-6; 66.4): The folks in Manhattan have now been witnesses to three straight 20-win seasons, and this team may be the best of the bunch. With Denis Clemente running the show and plenty of talent around him, Frank Martin should get the Wildcats back to the NCAAs for the second time in three seasons. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Oklahoma (9-7; 39.3): This is Willie Warren’s show now, and the point guard is good enough to get this team into the NCAA Tournament with minimal help. The Sooners will struggle on the glass, but Jeff Capel should have them back in the NCAAs again nevertheless. NCAA No. 10 seed.

Oklahoma State (8-8; 54.3): Travis Ford lost four players from last year’s rotation, but James Anderson returns along with a terrific set of newcomers. It took OSU time to get used to Ford’s system, but a year in, the Cowboys should avoid last year’s slow start even with less experience. NCAA No. 11 seed.

Missouri (8-8; 55.6): The losses of Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll are massive, but Missouri is built on depth, and the Tigers should have enough to hang around NCAA consideration this winter. It will be up to J.T. Tiller and Zaire Taylor to handle a much larger load on offense. NIT.

Baylor (6-10; 44.2): The Bears were expected to compete for the Sweet 16 last season but ended up in the NIT final. This year, Scott Drew has to replace a lot of talent and experience with three starters gone. LaceDarius Dunn’s emergence as a star is Step No. 1 toward the Bears competing for an NCAA bid. NIT.

Iowa State (6-10; 77.1): Greg McDermott expects to have his best team in Ames, but, considering he hasn’t won more than six league games in any of his first three seasons, “best” doesn’t really mean a lot. Without someone to help out Craig Brackins, the Cyclones’ offense will continue to come up short. NIT.

Texas Tech (4-12; 71.2): Pat Knight implemented a new run-and-gun system, but a 3-13 record showed that it paid few dividends. Knight has some nice pieces, including Mike Singletary, coming back, but his team will need to be better than “nice” to compete with that Big 12 South schedule. No postseason.

Colorado (4-12; 89.7): This would appear to be a good opportunity for Jeff Bzdelik to set a tenure-high in conference wins. The Buffaloes have won just four Big 12 games in Bzdelik’s first two years, and I predict they will match that this season. We’ll see whether Year 3 has talent ready to complement Cory Higgins. No postseason.

Nebraska (4-12; 39.1): Few coaches lost as much as Doc Sadler did in Lincoln, and it’ll be hard to put together a competitive roster with a lack of impact recruits. Finishing in the league’s top 10 would be a noteworthy accomplishment for this group this winter. No postseason.

Big East

West Virginia (14-4; 81.8): The difference between West Virginia ending this season in a second-round flameout instead of in the Final Four is all in the point guard. Darryl Bryant played well for much of last season but showed he was unable to run a consistent offense in several big spots. If either he or Joe Mazzulla can get this offense flowing, there is enough talent for the ‘Neers to be scary good. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Villanova (13-5; 63.6): The Wildcats are the popular choice to win the Big East, and they may in fact do that, but they’ll need to first replace what Dwayne Anderson and Dante Cunningham took with them from last year’s team. Without those two to hit the glass, a lot of pressure falls on Mouphtaou Yarou, the 6-foot-9 freshman. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Georgetown (12-6; 68.0): I’m willing to chalk up the last two months of last season as merely an aberration for John Thompson III’s Hoyas. With a terrific nucleus returning — Greg Monroe, Austin Freeman, Chris Wright — and enough pieces around those three, the Hoyas are good enough to challenge for the Big East. NCAA No. 4 seed.

Connecticut (12-6; 37.9): Despite heavy losses, we should expect Jim Calhoun’s Huskies to be good immediately this winter. Kemba Walker and Jerome Dyson form a dynamic backcourt, while Stanley Robinson and some tantalizing young frontcourt talents will do the dirty work inside. No. 4 seed.

Louisville (11-7; 52.0): The Cardinals need Samardo Samuels to dominate in the post if they are to be an efficient offensive team. With so much experience in the backcourt and athleticism in the frontcourt, the defense should be typically strong. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Seton Hall (11-7; 82.9): Every year, Seton Hall exceeds its preseason projection, and this year should be no different. Bobby Gonzalez’s Pirates are picked 10th in the league despite losing only one key player — Paul Gause — and adding three impact transfers, notably Herb Pope and Keon Lawrence. It’s as if his fellow coaches are begging Gonzo to overachieve. NCAA No. 10 seed.

Cincinnati (10-8; 78.8): With Lance Stephenson now cleared to play, everything is in line for Cincinnati’s first NCAA Tournament berth as a member of the Big East. It’s easy to forget that point guard Cashmere Wright entered last preseason as one of the league’s top newcomers before tearing his knee and missing the season. He’s back now, too, along with Deonta Vaughn and enough good players that UC has few excuses not to make the Dance. NCAA No. 11 seed.

Pittsburgh (9-9; 35.2): It’s very hard to pick the Panthers to not make the field after being one of the consistently excellent teams in college basketball for nearly a decade. On the other hand, talent is talent, and while there are some good players here, it is a tall task to replace the three seniors plus DeJuan Blair, who all departed after last season. I nervously expect Jamie Dixon to make me look foolish. NIT.

Syracuse (9-9; 39.4): Like Pittsburgh, Syracuse also has a lot to replace. Jonny Flynn leaves the biggest hole, one that will be filled by someone who didn’t play for Syracuse last season — freshman Brandon Triche or Scoop Jardine, an injury red-shirt a year ago. The Orange frontcourt of Wesley Johnson, Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson is good enough to make SU an NCAA Tournament team if the point-guard situation sorts itself out. NIT.

Notre Dame (8-10; 55.5): With Luke Harangody back for a final season, the Irish find themselves on the edge of both preseason polls. The problem is that, with each passing year, Harangody has less and less talent around him. Tory Jackson, Ben Hansbrough and Jonathan Peoples make up a solid backcourt rotation, but what of Tyrone Nash in the frontcourt with Tim Abromaitis or maybe Carleton Scott? The loss of Purdue transfer Scott Martin was damaging, but this team didn’t do much for me even before that. NIT.

St. John’s (8-10; 96.4): If there ever was to be a year when Norm Roberts’ program was to make the leap, this is it. With a team full of experienced juniors and in a weakened league, this is the Red Storm’s chance to break into the top half of the league. The offense needs to be more efficient for that to happen. NIT.

Marquette (7-11; 33.6): The loss of Junior Cadougan to a season-ending ruptured Achilles really hurts a team that was already going to struggle to replace the best set of guards to ever form one class at Marquette. Lazar Hayward should put up all-league numbers, because 1) he’s really good, and 2) there aren’t any proven offensive options surrounding him. No postseason.

Providence (6-12; 34.5): The Friars enter the season with only three players who saw any action last season, and all are guards. That leaves large problems on the backboards, but at least the dynamic combination of Sharaud Curry and Marshon Brooks should excite the Friar faithful in Year 2 of the Keno Davis Era. No postseason.

South Florida (6-12; 70.1): Dominique Jones is very good, and Stan Heath has added former Ohio State point guard Anthony Crater as his backcourt mate. If Augustus Gilchrist can be the force many expect up front, the Bulls may have the start of something. No postseason.

Rutgers (5-13; 52.1): The Fred Hill tenure has never quite gotten off the ground despite the string of touted recruits that have landed in Piscataway. Mike Rosario and Greg Echenique will continue to carry the load for a team that has a very difficult time scoring. No postseason.

DePaul (4-14; 61.4): Jerry Wainwright couldn’t have gotten worse news for the short-term of his program than Dar Tucker’s departure, but at least the conference isn’t quite so strong, which makes back-to-back 0-18 seasons unlikely. No postseason.

Big Ten

Michigan State (13-5; 73.7): With a fully healthy Raymar Morgan, Michigan State will have that dynamic slasher that it lacked even in advancing to the national title game last season. That along with Kalin Lucas and a typically stout interior defense has Tom Izzo thinking about winning one additional game this season. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Purdue (13-5; 82.0): Perhaps I’m a fool for this Purdue team, because the Boilermakers were mild disappointments last season. If Matt Painter’s team doesn’t have the frontline talent necessary, a No. 1 seed will look silly in March, but I think a healthy Robbie Hummel plus JaJuan Johnson to go with the great man-to-man defense puts Purdue among the elite. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Ohio State (11-7; 87.8): Evan Turner is awesome — there isn’t much that he doesn’t do well, and there’s a good chance he’s the best player in the Big Ten. Ohio State will need to do a better job taking care of the ball and defending the three to finish this high. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Minnesota (10-8; 90.2): The Golden Gopher train ran out of steam with a 6-10 finish, but the two-year turnaround is still remarkable. Almost everyone is back from last year’s team, and Tubby Smith also adds two top-70 recruits. NCAA No. 5 seed.

Wisconsin (10-8; 79.6): Wisconsin just wins and wins and wins. After a six-game losing streak put last season in jeopardy, Bo Ryan’s team reeled off five straight wins, four by at least 10 points to sneak into the field. There, the Badgers, a No. 12 seed, knocked off No. 5 Florida State in overtime. Ryan does lose two-thirds of his frontcourt, but look for Keaton Nankivil to emerge as the next efficient low-post presence. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Michigan (9-9; 81.7): Like Tubby Smith, John Beilein needed just two years to take the Wolverines from also-rans to the NCAAs. Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims have become one of the league’s best 1-2 punches, and Beilein has surrounded them with good shooters and passers. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Illinois (9-9; 62.7): It was a good bounceback season for Bruce Weber but one that ended with a clank in the NCAA Tournament. Three key rotation players are gone, but Demetri McCamey and Mike Davis lead a solid group of returners to go with a strong recruiting class for a team that should be one of the league’s best defensively. NCAA No. 9 seed.

Northwestern (8-10; 78.7): This may be the Wildcats’ best shot yet to make the NCAAs, but they picked a tough year to crack the first division of the Big Ten. Kevin Coble is one of the best players in the league, and he gives Bill Carmody a go-to guy in an offensive style that doesn’t usually have one. If Carmody can develop a replacement for Craig Moore’s 3-point shooting, Northwestern could break the NCAA Tournament hex. NIT.

Indiana (7-11; 67.0): Tom Crean should have Indiana back to a level of competitiveness this year after last year’s dismal start. The Hoosiers add the best recruiting class in the Big Ten and transfer Jeremiah Rivers from Georgetown. Rivers will bring tough perimeter defense, but the offense, which was the biggest problem last year, will have to come from elsewhere. NIT.

Penn State (6-12; 56.1): The Nittany Lions were a tough snub from the NCAA Tournament last year, but they turned that negative into a positive by winning the NIT. With Jamelle Cornley and Stanley Pringle gone, Talor Battle is the one dependable offensive option left, and he has a decent shot to lead the conference in scoring. No postseason.

Iowa (3-15; 45.0): The tragic death of Jake Kelly’s sister took away Frank Lickliter’s best player (Kelly transferred closer to home at Indiana State). The Hawkeyes’ second best player, Jeff Peterson, also left the program, leaving Lickliter with not nearly enough to compete in a league this good. No postseason.

Pac-10

California (13-5; 93.9): Any year in which UCLA is not considered the Pac-10 favorite is going to be considered a down year for the league, but that’s through no fault of Mike Montgomery’s Bears. We should note that the core of Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson was all recruited by Montgomery’s predecessor Ben Braun, but it was Mike who got them into the NCAAs last year and who should take them further this March. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Washington (13-5; 66.4): After two straight disappointing seasons, Lorenzo Romar parlayed a dynamic freshman and the stout play of Jon Brockman into a Pac-10 championship. Brockman and guard Justin Dentmon are gone, but with Isaiah Thomas and Quincy Pondexter, the Huskies have a nucleus to remain near the top of the league. NCAA No. 5 seed.

UCLA (12-6; 37.4): For the first time since 2005, Ben Howland’s team didn’t win the league or make the Final Four, and he’s lost four starters off of that team. This should be the year, though, when the freshman that made last year’s recruiting class so highly considered — excepting the departed Jrue Holiday, of course — start to make an impact. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Arizona State (10-8; 54.2): James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph are gone, and they will be impossible to replace. But led by Derek Glasser, Rihards Kuksiks and Ty Abbott (currently injured but back soon), Herb Sendek has enough to keep this team competitive, and we all know he can coach ‘em up. NIT.

Arizona (9-9; 45.7): Sean Miller’s first year at Arizona could be tricky, with Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill gone from last year’s dubious at-large selection. Nic Wise is back, and Miller’s brought in a nice recruiting class, which should keep the Wildcats’ heads above water in a weakened Pac-10, but that might not be enough to get them in the NCAAs. NIT.

Washington State (9-9; 42.0): Ken Bone is Tony Bennett’s replacement in Pullman, after the latter put WSU basketball on the map. Bone will field a team that lost four of its top six players from last year’s NIT club. Sophomore Klay Thompson, though, is a star in the making. NIT.

Oregon State (8-10; 89.8): No team made the transformation Craig Robinson’s team did from November to March. An 0-4 start that included losses to three bad teams could not have predicted a sweep of Cal and Stanford, a 7-11 record in conference and a win in a postseason tournament (not that the CBI is much of a title). The 18 wins tripled the number from the previous season, and 18 would be a good goal this season, especially considering the Beavers entered the CBI with just 13 victories. NIT.

Oregon (7-11; 87.5): A year after being a questionable at-large selection to the 2008 NCAA Tournament, Ernie Kent’s team started 0-14 in conference last season. The problems were manifold, mainly a disinterested or simply incompetent defense. Most of that squad is back, and hopefully the returning players brought some defense back with them. Look for Michael Dunigan to break out. No postseason.

Southern Cal (5-13; 39.1): Kevin O’Neill enters an ugly situation in Los Angeles after what will now be considered a very dark era under Tim Floyd. The basketball was good, but the rules infractions embarrassing. This year’s team wasn’t going to bring back much anyway — Dwight Lewis heads the list of returners. No postseason.

Stanford (4-14; 39.5): Stanford started 10-0 in Johnny Dawkins’ first season, but the Cardinal struggled in conference play, going 6-12 thanks to a sieve-like defense. Much of that team has now departed, leaving Landry Fields, Josh Owens and a bunch of question marks. No postseason.

SEC

East

Tennessee (12-4; 100.0): The overwhelming choice to win the East is Kentucky, but here’s a vote for continuity and experience. With five seniors and one of the deepest benches in basketball, Bruce Pearl’s team may be better than the one that earned a No. 2 seed in 2008, though it would be hard-pressed to surpass that seed. The key will be getting the defense to get back to forcing turnovers or to excel in other areas. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Kentucky (11-5; 60.3): With Patrick Patterson and John Wall, there’s not a better 1-2 punch in the SEC, and the athleticism of this team is off the charts. If UK does indeed go 11-5 and get a No. 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, no top seed will want to see the Cats in its bracket. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Vanderbilt (9-7; 91.8): A winning record in the SEC East should be more than good enough to earn an NCAA bid this season, and the Commodores are prepared to do that. Jeffrey Taylor and A.J. Ogilvy are yet another terrific 1-2 punch to go with Wall-Patterson and Tyler Smith-Wayne Chism at Tennessee. With the arrival of John Jackson to go with Jermaine Beal and Brad Tinsley in the backcourt, Kevin Stallings has to be excited about the possibilities. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Florida (9-7; 62.6): With the additions of Kenny Boynton for offense and Georgetown transfer Vernon Macklin for defense and three starters returning, the Gators definitely have enough to be competitive. It seems unlikely, though, that Boynton will be able to replace all that Nick Calathes did or that Macklin can single-handedly make the defense passable. There will have to be improvements and extra contributions from other parts of the roster — I’m looking at you, Chandler Parsons — if Florida is to end its two-year NCAA Tournament drought. NCAA No. 10 seed.

South Carolina (8-8; 77.9): Devan Downey’s decision to return to Columbia means that the Gamecocks have a real shot to compete for an NCAA berth. The 5-foot-9 point guard will mean more to his team than any other SEC player because of what he can do on offense and defense and how much of the load he carries. There is experience and depth around him, which could get South Carolina that extra one or two wins it needed last year to play in the Big Dance. NCAA No. 12 seed.

Georgia (1-15; 61.8): Maybe I’m selling Mark Fox short in his first season, but that record speaks as much to the difficulty of the division as it does to Georgia’s roster. He’ll need more than just Howard Thompkins to compete in the SEC this year, and I’m not sure Fox has much more. No postseason.

West

Mississippi State (11-5; 97.3): Rick Stansbury returns every key contributor from the team that won its last six games to take the SEC Tournament and steal an NCAA bid. It also adds Renardo Sidney and John Riek, though the latter is probably more of a project. With Jarvis Varnado and Sidney in the paint, it’s hard to imagine opponents relishing the idea of going inside. NCAA No. 4 seed.

Mississippi (9-7; 68.6): While David Huertas did decide to go pro early, that 68.6 percent figure is a bit misleading, because Chris Warren missed most of the season with a knee injury suffered in December. The 5-10 point guard is simply one of the best guards in the country, able to handle a heavy offensive load and pester opponents on defense. If he is 100 percent, then Andy Kennedy can combine Warren with the SEC’s best freshman from a season ago, Terrico White, to form an awesome backcourt. Up front, there’s Murphy Holloway, who is efficient and can dominate the offensive glass. This was a difficult NCAA Tournament omission. NIT.

Alabama (7-9; 63.2): Despite Alonzo Gee’s graduation, there’s certainly enough talent in Tuscaloosa to make Anthony Grant’s first season a success. JaMychal Green was terrific as a freshman and should be one of the dominant offensive rebounders in college basketball this year. Mikhail Torrance was also a bright spot in a postseason-less season. The offense struggled, however, thanks in large part to Senario Hillman using too many possessions inefficiently. If Grant can pass some of Hillman’s possessions to Green and Torrance, and perhaps grab the occasional defensive rebound, the Tide should be in the mix. NIT.

Auburn (7-9; 59.2): Auburn’s lack of depth and size should prevent a second straight 20-win season, but the backcourt is good enough to keep Jeff Lebo’s team competitive, especially if they can continue to force turnovers and protect the ball like they did last season. No postseason.

Arkansas (6-10; 84.1): John Pelphrey’s freshman class was a hit last season, but, after knocking off Texas and Oklahoma before the start of conference play, the wins dried up against SEC opponents. It was nice of Courtney Fortson to take such a big load as a freshman, but he’ll need to cut down on turnovers (doable) and be more efficient with his shooting (we’ll see) for Arkansas’ offense to be good enough of NCAA consideration. We’ll also see if Arkansas’ defense can do a better job of field-goal defense. Only six of the 73 major-conference teams was worse in that area last year. No postseason.

LSU (6-10; 41.7): Without any recruits likely to make an immediate impact, it’s hard to see why this team was picked fourth by the media. The Tigers will desperately miss Marcus Thornton’s ability to take and make so many shots — big and small — and Chris Johnson’s defensive presence in the paint. If LSU does indeed finish here, it will mark the fourth time in five years the Tigers have placed either first or last in the SEC West. No postseason.

Mid-Majors

With mid-major stalwarts Xavier and Memphis changing coaches and losing key players and Gonzaga turning over much of its roster, the little guy does not have a standard bearer this winter. Butler might be that team, but watch out for Brigham Young out of the Mountain West. Either way, it seems more likely than not that next March will mark the second straight NCAA Tournament that there will be no mid-major teams in the Elite Eight.

Butler (Horizon; 100.0), No. 4 seed.
Brigham Young (Mountain West; 78.0), No. 5 seed.
Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley; 92.4), No. 7 seed.
Siena (MAAC; 78.9), No. 8 seed.
Tulsa (Conference USA; 80.2), No. 9 seed.
Dayton (Atlantic 10; 85.7), No. 9 seed.
Xavier (Atlantic 10; 51.1), No. 10 seed.
Memphis (Conference USA; 30.7), No. 11 seed.
Gonzaga (West Coast; 31.0), No. 11 seed.
Creighton (Missouri Valley; 71.4), No. 12 seed.
Niagara (MAAC; 84.0), No. 12 seed.
Utah State (WAC; 72.3), No. 12 seed.

* major-conference average for possessions returning is 65.0 percent.

Before continuing with the ACC negativity, I must first pay homage to the team of last season, the Tar Heels. UNC perhaps didn’t sail through the ACC season as smoothly as many assumed — in fact, Roy Williams’ team started ACC play 0-2 — but, by the time the NCAA Tournament rolled around, there was nothing stopping the Tar Heels. UNC’s offense was one of the best in recent memory, and only Oklahoma came close to slowing it down in the NCAA Tournament. Behind the inside-outside combination of Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough, and with Wayne Ellington hitting his stride — not to mention about six or seven other players who would start on any team in the country — North Carolina was hardly challenged in winning each NCAA Tournament game by at least 12.

At one point or another, three ACC teams besides UNC had the look of a top team last season, but each had their flaws revealed and saw their seasons end in embarrassing March departures. After a 16-0 start to the season, Clemson lost nine of its final 16, including a three-point loss to No. 10 seed Michigan in the first round of the NCAAs. Wake Forest also started 16-0, but the young Demon Deacons then lost five of nine, briefly righted the ship in early March, but fell in the first rounds of the ACC and NCAA tournaments, including a 15-point loss to No. 13 seed Cleveland State. Duke didn’t fall nearly as hard after its 18-1 start, though the Devils did lose four-of-six at one point. Duke was terrific in the ACC Tournament, winning the final over Florida State, and the Devils knocked off a tough Texas team to reach the Sweet 16 but fell by 23 in a wretched display of shooting in Boston.

Since the ACC expanded to 12 teams, the league has gone from the best conference in the NCAA Tournament to fifth, ahead of only the SEC among major conferences. This is how the conferences have improved or gotten worse in March since 2006, according to average NCAA Tournament Conference Score.

It’s not as simple as saying that Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College have killed the ACC, but it’s part of it. While the Big East added top-20 programs in Louisville, Marquette and — they hope soon — Cincinnati, the ACC added something less valuable. Of course, Herb Sendek’s departure from Raleigh, which turned the Wolfpack program into a nightmare (15-33 in conference over the last three seasons) hasn’t helped. Four years is not a sample that will impress any scientist, but the basketball folks in the ACC have to at least worry if the league hasn’t lost its preeminence in exchange for not much gain at all on the football side. (The Pac-10’s improvement is due almost solely to Ben Howland’s turnaround in Westwood.)

What you need to know: This league is deep. There may not be a bonifide national title contender in the group, but nine of the conference’s 12 teams enter the season expecting to make the NCAA Tournament, and Miami and Virginia have aspirations as well. North Carolina and Duke should again lead the pack, but the second tier of the ACC could be nine teams deep. I would be surprised if the league sends fewer than seven teams to the NCAAs, and eight is a possibility.

The interesting aspect of the league is sorting out teams 3-11, which is not to say Duke and UNC up top is set in stone. Maryland returns the most of the teams that went to the NCAAs last season, and yet Gary Williams’ Terps are not ranked in the preseason AP poll. Georgia Tech returns most of its pieces and adds one of the nation’s best recruiting classes, but the Jackets have the furthest to go, having finished 2-14 in conference last season. In their defense, three of those losses were in overtime and another four (plus the ACC Tournament loss) were by five points or fewer. Clemson and Wake Forest each lost three rotation players, but both still return plenty, and the Tigers bring in a good recruiting class.

That leaves the perennially underrated Boston College, which returns all but high-volume scorer Tyrese Rice; Florida State, which lost two big pieces but should have enough coming back off of last year’s breakout season; Virginia Tech, which has now finished just off the edge of the NCAA field in back-to-back years; Miami off last season’s disappointment and with several players having departed, including Jack McClinton; and Virginia with new coach Tony Bennett and most of Dave Leitao’s players back but off a 4-12 season.

The omission of NC State from the last two paragraphs was not a mistake.

Team that lost the most: A team like North Carolina can be good enough to win a league even as good as the ACC year in and year out, but it takes a special mix to be good enough to win the title. UNC had that mix last season, and it’s no surprise that most of those players are gone. I’ve mentioned Hansbrough, Lawson and Ellington, but Danny Green and Bobby Frasor were exceptionally valuable role players in the run to the national title. No major-conference team lost more than Roy’s boys.

North Carolina State and Miami also lost a bunch. The Wolfpack has really imploded under Sidney Lowe. At age 22, Brandon Costner, who was to be Lowe’s top returner, decided to declare for the NBA Draft. He went undrafted. Ben McCauley, a very important contributor for four seasons, Courtney Fells and Trevor Ferguson also depart.

Frank Haith didn’t get as much of out last year’s team as most expected. Miami started 13-3, including wins at Kentucky and Boston College — the former would look less impressive with each passing week — but the ‘Canes started 4-8 in conference and weren’t really in the mix for a bid down the stretch. Now, sharpshooter McClinton is gone as well as quality rotation players Lance Hurdle, Brian Asbury and Jimmy Graham.

Several other teams lost key pieces, including James Johnson and Jeff Teague at Wake Forest, Toney Douglas and Uche Echefu at Florida State and K.C. Rivers and Terrence Oglesby at Clemson.

Team that returns the most: Leitao left his successor with many players; it’s just not clear how good those players are. We know Sylvan Landesburg is good, very good in fact; probably good enough to be an all-league player as soon as this season. Mike Scott in the front court gives UVa a solid inside-outside combo. Bennett’s going to have to get better minutes from once highly-touted Jeff Jones as well as Calvin Baker and Sammy Zeglinski, because the offense — especially the shooting — was pretty terrible last season.

Maryland returns almost as much as Virginia, led by Greivis Vasquez, who would have gotten a very long look by NBA executives had he stayed in June’s draft. Fellow guards Adrian Bowie and Eric Hayes as well as forward Landon Milbourne give Williams a nucleus to build on last season’s relative success.

Team most impacted by newcomers: This one’s a toss-up between Georgia Tech and North Carolina, but we’ll go with GaTech, since it’s unlikely that any newcomer will have a bigger impact than Derrick Favors. The 6-foot-9 big man brings to campus a reputation as a terrific defender and rebounder as well as a potentially dominant player in the post. He’s likely to be a one-and-done. Paul Hewitt has also added point guard Mfon Udofia and forward Kammeon Holsey at the top of a terrific six-man class. The six new recruits — Glen Rice Jr. a famous name among the other three — join several talented returners for a Yellow Jackets program that has not won in the NCAA Tournament since 2005.

North Carolina has brought in another top class led by John Henson, a multi-talented big man who is even lankier than Ed Davis. Guards Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald and twin forwards David and Travis Wear join last year’s terrific freshman class to form the core of UNC’s title defender.

Team that will disappoint: Beyond the team I’ll highlight in the next section, I don’t have many qualms with the ACC media’s preseason projections for the league. I’m inclined to choose either of the teams I featured in the previous section as the likely disappointers. UNC is picked in a tie for first but is dependent on a lot of semi-untested players to take on large loads. Georgia Tech is picked fourth, but that certainly looks like the upper bound of where the Jackets are likely to finish — unless Favors has a Kevin Love-like impact — so to pick them to come in below that off a 2-14 season is the sensible play.

Team that will surprise: As you may already have noticed, I’m high on Maryland. The Terrapins have a very talented backcourt led by one of the best floor leaders in the nation, and they have a proven coach who is itching to get back near the top of the league. The media picked the Terps fifth in their preseason poll, and while Maryland may not be as talented as teams 1-4, I like the Terps to finish third. If freshman Jordan Williams and the returning frontcourt players can do anything to mitigate Maryland’s near-nightly size disadvantage, this team should finish near the top of the league.

Player due for a breakout: With McClinton now in the NBA, there are a lot of shots there for the taking in South Florida, and Dwayne Collins is well-equipped to take many of them. He averaged 10.6 ppg and 7.3 rpg as a junior, solid numbers no doubt, and that in less than 25 minutes per game. With more minutes and more touches, the 6-8 forward should be able to get close to 16 point per game and 10 rebounds and perhaps more. He’s one of the toughest players to guard in the league, as indicated by his ability to draw fouls. Only Tyler Hansbrough drew more per 40 minutes on the floor among ACC players last season. He should be an All-ACC selection next spring.

Underrated player: A transfer from Vermont, Joe Trapani made an immediate impact for Boston College last season. He was the long-range bomber that most folks in Chestnut Hill expected (36.4 percent on 143 3-point attempts), but what most outsiders didn’t foresee was what he brought on the defensive end. He was Al Skinner’s best defensive rebounder and shot-blocker on a team in desperate need of both. He also drew more fouls than anyone but Rice.