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Bracket Junkie: Big 12 is back to Big Eight

February 12, 2010 – by Brendon

Bracketing Challenges: This bracket came together well, but there were still a few challenges. Most notably, any of the last three teams in the field could easily be omitted. South Carolina, Texas Tech and VCU have thin cases, but I found them marginally more compelling than Mississippi, Florida, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and Louisville. If the bracket were announced today, I would not be very confident in those final three teams.

The other challenge continues to be in filling out the top four seedlines. Finding the last two No. 3 seeds was particularly difficult with the poor play of Texas and after Wisconsin’s home defeat to Illinois. Still, the full-season profiles of those two teams remains stronger than Vanderbilt, Gonzaga and the others on the No. 4 seedline. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Bruce Weber, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Cornell, Demetri McCamey, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Harvard, Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, Ivy League, Jerome Randle, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Pat Knight, Purdue, Richmond, Rick Barnes, SEC, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, South Carolina, South Florida, St. John's, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin | Comments (3)

Bracket Junkie: WVU, Nova to play for top seed

February 8, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Breakdown: After a weekend of travel, I’ll have to be brief. Look for a full breakdown on Friday. Villanova drops to the No. 2 seedline after a lopsided defeat at Georgetown. The Wildcats will have an immediate chance to take back that spot from the team that replaced them — West Virginia — when the two teams meet on Big Monday. Clemson sees another loss drop it near the cutline, and Florida State makes the jump to take the Tigers’ place. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged Arizona State, Cincinnati, Clemson, Dayton, Florida State, Georgetown, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier | Comments (0)

Bracket Junkie: Loving the Lobos

February 1, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Breakdown: Perhaps the most difficult aspect to building this bracket was finding that last No. 3 seed. Out of Purdue, Kansas State, Duke, Texas and West Virginia, it was clear that two of them would be No. 2 seeds and three would be No. 3 seeds, but there was no obvious choice to fill out that third line. Just like in the last projection, I went with New Mexico over Brigham Young and any other team — Wisconsin, Tennessee, Baylor, Temple, Ohio State, Georgia Tech — that might have had a claim.

The good thing is that none of those teams had a very strong claim at that spot. New Mexico was the choice because its five wins against top-50 teams was more than any other team that hadn’t been bracketed, except Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, which also have five. New Mexico’s record (20-3), combined with a head-to-head win over Brigham Young, a six-game winning streak and a 10th ranking in my seeding model put the Lobos over the top. I’m not sure what the Selection Committee would do if presented this scenario, but the only other teams I could see them bracketing here are BYU, who — again — has lost to New Mexico head-to-head, or Ohio State, if the Buckeyes were given a complete pass for losses suffered when Evan Turner was injured. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Baylor, Billy Donovan, Brigham Young, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Creighton, Dayton, Demetri McCamey, DePaul, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Illinois State, Indiana, Jimmy Butler, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rutgers, Sean Miller, South Carolina, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple, Tennesse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State, William & Mary, Wisconsin | Comments (2)

Bracket Junkie: Another year, another first projection

January 22, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Breakdown: This is our first projection of the season, as I like to wait until most teams have at least four conference games under their belts. It’s not until about now that you can really get a good gauge on a team. Everything up until now is primarily guesswork. Even so, there is a lot on this bracket that will look strange come March. The question is what. The answers will be revealed over the next seven weeks. One predictions: the Colonial Athletic Association will have fewer than three teams in the field.

For a frame of reference, in our first projection last season on Jan. 25, Kentucky and Florida were No. 6 seeds, and Georgetown was a No. 7; none of those three made the NCAAs. On the other hand, the Nos. 1-5 seeds all made the NCAAs. The four teams that ended the season as No. 1 seeds were 1, 1, 2 and 3 in our first projection. Ten of the teams seeded on the first four lines of last year’s first projection ended up as top-four seeds by March. So, there is perhaps more stability than one might expect. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colonial, Connecticut, Dayton, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northeastern, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Pac-10, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, SEC, South Carolina, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, William & Mary, Wisconsin, Xavier | Comments (0)

Pac-10 proving that parity can come at a price

January 18, 2010 – by Brendon

The NFL sells parity to its fans to convince supporters of poor or mediocre teams that the gap between their team and the league’s best isn’t that large. With NFL teams now challenging for perfect records deep into November every year, the promise of parity isn’t really being kept, but it was always a hollow one. That’s something Pac-10 fans are learning this season.

Take a look at the Pac-10 standings and you’ll see a lot of the same numbers — twos and threes mainly. Despite every team having played either five or six games, only Arizona State has a zero, one, four, five or six next to either its wins or losses. Herb Sendek’s Sun Devils are 4-2 in conference after sweeping the Oregon schools this weekend, and they sit atop the Pac-10. A single game separates second and 10th. Read More »

Posted in Pac-10 | Tagged Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Ben Howland, BTI, California, Herb Sendek, Kevin O'Neill, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Oregon State, Pac-10, Seattle, Southern Cal, Stanford, Tennessee, Texas Tech, UCLA, Washington, Washington State | Comments (0)

Big 12 WIR: Among many blowouts, Tech’s start impresses

November 16, 2009 – by Brendon

In sum: At 16-0, the Big 12 was one of three conferences — along with the ACC and Big East — that emerged unscathed from the first weekend of play, though there were three close calls, all in the state of Texas. In Lawrence, the Jayhawks throttled a not-terrible Hofstra team in Xavier Henry’s 27-point debut. Texas, Nebraska and Kansas State all had impressive performances as well.

Team of the week: Texas Tech. It wasn’t a weekend that made folks stand up and take notice, but there was probably a better chance that the Red Raiders would lose one of their three games this weekend than win all three. Tech throttled South Dakota on Friday and then faced, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, fresh off a win over Oregon State. Corpus Christi led at half, but a suffocating defense — something missing in Lubbock last season — helped Tech win, 66-59. The next afternoon, in the season’s first matchup of teams from major conferences, Texas Tech took out Oregon State, 64-60.

Teams	Poss	PPP	eFG	Turn	Reb	FTR
Oregon State	63	0.95	0.467	0.316	0.448	0.178
Texas Tech	63	1.01	0.510	0.205	0.241	0.212

Texas Tech held a third straight opponent to less than a point per possession, something the Red Raiders only did six times in 33 games last season. They’re still pretty miserable on the backboards, but let’s take one deficiency at a time. It’s a good win against a team that many thought would compete for an NCAA Tournament berth this year. Read More »

Posted in Big 12, Reviews/Previews | Tagged ACC, Angelo State, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Boston University, Drake, Ekpe Udoh, Hartford, Hofstra, Iowa State, Jeff Capel, Kansas, Kansas State, Loyola (Ill.), Memphis, Mississippi, Nebraska, Norfolk State, Oklahoma, Oregon State, SMU, South Dakota, St. Louis, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Texas Tech, VCU, Xavier Henry | Comments (0)

Predicting many future events in one large analysis

November 9, 2009 – by Brendon

Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:

• ACC
• Big 12
• Big East
• Big Ten
• Pac-10
• SEC
• Mid-Majors

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

ACC

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »

Posted in National Perspective | Tagged 2009-10 season preview, A.J. Ogilvy, ACC, Al Skinner, Al-Farouq Aminu, Alabama, Alonzo Gee, Andy Kennedy, Anthony Crater, Anthony Grant, Arinze Onuaku, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Augustus Gilchrist, Austin Freeman, Avery Bradley, Baylor, Ben Braun, Ben Howland, Big East, Big Ten, Bill Carmody, Bill Self, Bo Ryan, Bobby Gonzalez, Boston College, Brad Tinsley, Brandon Triche, Brigham Young, Bruce Pearl, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Carleton Scott, Cashmere Wright, Chandler Parsons, Chase Budinger, Chinemelu Elonu, Chris Johnson, Chris Warren, Chris Wright, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Conference USA, Connecticut, Cory Higgins, Courtney Fortson, Craig Brackins, Craig Moore, Craig Robinson, Creighton, Damion James, Dante Cunningham, Dar Tucker, Darryl Bryant, David Huertas, Dayton, DeJuan Blair, DeMarre Carroll, Demetri McCamey, Demontez Stitt, Denis Clemente, Deon Thompson, Deonta Vaughn, DePaul, Derek Glasser, Derrick Favors, DeShawn Sims, Devan Downey, Dexter Pittman, Doc Sadler, Dominique Jones, Duke, Dwayne Anderson, Dwight Lewis, Ed Davis, Elliott Williams, Ernie Kent, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Frank Haith, Frank Lickliter, Frank Martin, Fred Hill, Gani Lawal, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Greg Echenique, Greg McDermott, Greg Monroe, Greivis Vasquex, Herb Pope, Herb Sendek, Horizon, Howard Thompkins, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Isaiah Thomas, J.T. Tiller, JaJuan Johnson, Jake Kelly, Jamelle Cornley, James Anderson, James Harden, JaMychal Green, Jarvis Varnado, Jeff Bzdelik, Jeff Capel, Jeff Leo, Jeff Pendergraph, Jeff Peterson, Jeffrey Taylor, Jeremiah Rivers, Jermaine Beal, Jerome Dyson, Jerome Randle, Jerry Wainwright, Joe Mazulla, John Beilein, John Henson, John Jackson, John Pelphrey, John Riek, John Thompson III, John Wall, Johnny Dawkins, Jon Brockman, Jon Scheter, Jonny Flynn, Jordan Hill, Josh Owens, Jrue Holiday, Junior Cadougan, Justin Dentmon, Kalin Lucas, Kansas, Kansas State, Keaton Nankivil, Kemba Walker, Ken Bone, Kenny Boynton, Keno Davis, Kentucky, Keon Lawrence, Kevin Coble, Kevin O'Neill, Kevin Stallings, Klay Thompson, Kyle Singler, LaceDarius Dunn, Lance Stephenson, Landry Fields, Lazar Hayward, Leo Lyons, Leonard Hamilton, Lorenzo Brown, Lorenzo Romar, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, MAAC, Manny Harris, Marcus Thornton, Mark Fox, Mark Turgeon, Marquette, Marshon Brooks, Maryland, Memphis, Miami (Fla.), Michael Dunigan, Michael Snaer, Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Mike Davis, Mike Montgomery, Mike Rosario, Mike Singletary, Mikhail Torrance, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Mouphtaou Yarou, Murphy Holloway, Nebraska, Niagara, Nic Wise, Nick Calathes, Norm Roberts, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Oregon, Oregon State, Pac-10, Pat Knight, Patrick Christopher, Patrick Patterson, Paul Gause, Paul Hewitt, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Quincy Pondexter, Raymar Morgan, Renardo Sidney, Rick Barnes, Rick Jackson, Rick Stansbury, Rihards Kuksiks, Robbie Hummel, Roy Williams, Rutgers, Samardo Samuels, Scoop Jardine, Scott Drew, Scott Martin, Sean Miller, SEC, Senario Hillman, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, Sharaud Curry, Sidney Lowe, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Cal, St. John's, Stan Heath, Stanford, Stanley Pringle, Stanley Robinson, Sylvan Landesburg, Syracuse, Talor Battle, Tennessee, Terrico White, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Theo Robertson, Tim Abromaitis, Tim Floyd, Tom Crean, Toney Douglas, Tony Bennett, Travis Ford, Trevor Booker, Tubby Smith, Tulsa, Ty Abbott, Tyler Smith, Tyler Zeller, Tyrese Rice, Tyrone Nash, UCLA, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Vernon Macklin, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, WAC, Wake Forest, Washington, Washington State, Wayne Chism, Wesley Johnson, West Coast, West Virginia, Willie Warren, Wisconsin, Xavier, Zaire Taylor | Comments (2)

ACC has depth, but will anyone help out UNC come March?

November 8, 2009 – by Brendon

2008-09 in review: A conference that once dominated March has, of late, become a league with one team that dominates March while 11 other teams sit in their dorm rooms and watch. For the third straight season, North Carolina was the only ACC team to reach a regional final. Duke became the only team not named “North Carolina” to make the Sweet 16 since 2006, but the Blue Devils were brusquely dismissed by Final Four-bound Villanova. ACC teams not from Chapel Hill have just a 9-16 NCAA Tournament record in the last three tournaments.

Before continuing with the ACC negativity, I must first pay homage to the team of last season, the Tar Heels. UNC perhaps didn’t sail through the ACC season as smoothly as many assumed — in fact, Roy Williams’ team started ACC play 0-2 — but, by the time the NCAA Tournament rolled around, there was nothing stopping the Tar Heels. UNC’s offense was one of the best in recent memory, and only Oklahoma came close to slowing it down in the NCAA Tournament. Behind the inside-outside combination of Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough, and with Wayne Ellington hitting his stride — not to mention about six or seven other players who would start on any team in the country — North Carolina was hardly challenged in winning each NCAA Tournament game by at least 12.

At one point or another, three ACC teams besides UNC had the look of a top team last season, but each had their flaws revealed and saw their seasons end in embarrassing March departures. After a 16-0 start to the season, Clemson lost nine of its final 16, including a three-point loss to No. 10 seed Michigan in the first round of the NCAAs. Wake Forest also started 16-0, but the young Demon Deacons then lost five of nine, briefly righted the ship in early March, but fell in the first rounds of the ACC and NCAA tournaments, including a 15-point loss to No. 13 seed Cleveland State. Duke didn’t fall nearly as hard after its 18-1 start, though the Devils did lose four-of-six at one point. Duke was terrific in the ACC Tournament, winning the final over Florida State, and the Devils knocked off a tough Texas team to reach the Sweet 16 but fell by 23 in a wretched display of shooting in Boston.

Since the ACC expanded to 12 teams, the league has gone from the best conference in the NCAA Tournament to fifth, ahead of only the SEC among major conferences. This is how the conferences have improved or gotten worse in March since 2006, according to average NCAA Tournament Conference Score.

Conference	2000-05	2006-09	Diff
Pac-10	1.08	1.35	0.27
Big East	1.00	1.17	0.17
SEC	1.03	1.02	-0.01
Big 12	1.24	1.11	-0.14
Big Ten	1.33	1.11	-0.22
ACC	1.55	1.04	-0.51

It’s not as simple as saying that Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College have killed the ACC, but it’s part of it. While the Big East added top-20 programs in Louisville, Marquette and — they hope soon — Cincinnati, the ACC added something less valuable. Of course, Herb Sendek’s departure from Raleigh, which turned the Wolfpack program into a nightmare (15-33 in conference over the last three seasons) hasn’t helped. Four years is not a sample that will impress any scientist, but the basketball folks in the ACC have to at least worry if the league hasn’t lost its preeminence in exchange for not much gain at all on the football side. (The Pac-10’s improvement is due almost solely to Ben Howland’s turnaround in Westwood.) Read More »

Posted in ACC | Tagged 2009-10 season preview, ACC, Adrian Bowie, Al Skinner, Ben Howland, Ben McCauley, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Bobby Frasor, Boston College, Brandon Costner, Brian Asbury, Calvin Baker, Clemson, Cleveland State, Courtney Fells, Danny Green, Dave Leitao, David Wear, Derrick Favors, Dexter Strickland, Duke, Dwayne Collins, Ed Davis, Eric Hayes, Florida State, Frank Haith, Gary Williams, Georgia Tech, Glen Rice Jr., Greivis Vasquez, Jack McClinton, James Johnson, Jeff Jones, Jeff Teague, Jimmy Graham, Joe Trapani, John Henson, Jordan Williams, K.C. Rivers, Kammeon Holsey, Kevin Love, Lance Hurdle, Landon Milbourne, Leslie McDonald, Maryland, Mfon Udofia, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Mike Scott, NCAA Tournament Conference Score, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Oklahoma, Pac-10, Paul Hewitt, Roy Williams, Sammy Zeglinski, SEC, Sidney Lowe, Sylvan Landesburg, Terrence Oglesby, Texas, Toney Douglas, Tony Bennett, Travis Wear, Trevor Ferguson, Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough, Tyrese Rice, Uche Echefu, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Wayne Ellington | Comments (0)

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Bracket Junkie: Big 12 is back to Big Eight

Bracket Junkie: WVU, Nova to play for top seed

Bracket Junkie: Loving the Lobos

Bracket Junkie: Another year, another first projection

Pac-10 proving that parity can come at a price

Big 12 WIR: Among many blowouts, Tech’s start impresses

Predicting many future events in one large analysis

ACC has depth, but will anyone help out UNC come March?

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