“We got the tempo we wanted,” said Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey. “50-45 — that’s what we want.”

And that’s what Brey and the Irish got.

With just 50 offensive possessions for each team, this was the slowest-paced Big East game all season, edging the 51-possession game when Notre Dame faced Pittsburgh the first time on Feb. 26, the first of now six straight that the Irish have won. During most of Notre Dame’s offensive possessions, the Irish were satisfied to merely pass the ball around the perimeter, rarely even looking at the basket until the shotclock hit single digits.

In the second half, the slow pace joined with poor shooting and shoddy ball-handling as the two teams combined for just 11 made field goals (the Irish only attempted 13 shots in the final 20). At the under-four timeout, the second-half score was 11-10, Notre Dame. It had been just two days since Seton Hall and Providence combined for 215 points in the very same timeslot, but that now seemed like an entirely different sport.

Notre Dame maintained a lead of one to five points throughout the second half thanks to neither team’s ability to make a shot. Pittsburgh was particularly vexed by turnovers, an egregious error against a Notre Dame team that rarely tries to force them. Indeed, many of Pittsburgh’s five turnovers in a 13-possession span in the middle of the second half were unforced.

“We probably have more energy to play because we don’t have to guard as many possessions throughout the game,” concluded Brey about his team’s newfound passion for defense while playing a slower pace. “And we’re confident, because we’re getting stops in a shorter number of possessions. … I think there’s a commitment, too — maybe a renewed commitment. Our interior defense and ball-screen defense has been the most consistent since I’ve been here.”

“I think we did a pretty good job of attacking them and driving for kickouts or driving to the lane and feeding our big men,” said senior guard Jermaine Dixon. “We just didn’t make the shots we usually make.”

Among those who didn’t make shots was Big East Most Improved Player Ashton Gibbs. The sophomore didn’t miss many shots, but he was simply not involved in the offense. After averaging cktk ppg this season, Gibbs had just four points on 2-of-4 shooting in 33 minutes. His disappearing act did not help a Pittsburgh offense that needed someone to make shots.

Pittsburgh’s lapses in concentration and wayward shooting allowed Notre Dame to maintain the lead despite scoring just five points from a Tim Abromaitis foul-line leaner with 14:26 to play until Tory Jackson hit the biggest shot of the game with 3:24 to play.

The Panthers had just pulled to within 43-40 on a Dixon free throw, and Notre Dame was doing their now-typical perimeter routine of passing until the shotclock wound down. Jackson found himself 30 feet from the basket and with just a handful of seconds to shoot. He made a quick move to get his shooting hand free and then banked in a 24-footer to double the Notre Dame lead. With that shot, ND had all the points it would need.

“They seemed to make shots at the end of the clock, and they executed well,” admitted Pittsburgh head coach Jamie Dixon. “We need to do a better job.”

Brad Wanamaker did his best to bring the Panthers back in the closing minutes. After Jackson’s three, the junior drove and drew a foul by Carleton Scott. Wanamaker hit both free throws to close the gap to four. Two possessions later, Wanamaker’s stumbling finish brought the Panthers to within two at 47-45 with 1:38. Pittsburgh’s coaches wanted the bonus free throw, because they thought Wanamaker was pushed, but no call was forthcoming.

That basket marked the final points of the Big East season for Pittsburgh. The Panthers had two chances to tie but first Wanamaker and then Gilbert Brown missed makeable mid-range shots. Harangody knocked down a pair of free throws to extend the lead the 49-45 with 15.9 seconds left, and it was mostly academic from there.

“For Luke to bounce back after traveling when we go to him in a big possession and come back and make the two free throws just kind of tells you the kind of guy he is,” said Brey of the shots that iced the game.

In the first half, the Irish were efficiently patient thanks to hot shooting, especially from Jackson and Scott. The two combined to make 6-of-7 shots in the half, including three 3-pointers from Jackson. Tyrone Nash served as the facilitator with six assists from the forward spot. Notre Dame’s first three baskets, a lay-in for Abromaitis, an open 3-pointer for Jackson and a long jumper by Scott all came off of good feeds by Nash. The Irish had 12 assists on 13 made field goals in the opening 20 minutes.

Nash’s distribution helped the Irish get out to a 15-7 lead with 13:46 left. The Irish scored on each of their first seven offensive possessions. Little did we know that we had already seen all of the offensive efficiency that we were going to see.

Pittsburgh stayed close behind Wanamaker (16 points for the game), Dixon (10) and seven first-half offensive rebounds for the team. Five points from Wanamaker brought the Panthers from down 25-21 to within a point at 27-26.

Brown’s free throw tied the score at 27 with 1:30 left in the first half, but a backdoor look from Ben Hansbrough to Haragody got Notre Dame its lead back, and then Jackson hit a three-pointer from the left corner to make it five. The Irish went into the locker up 34-31 and never trailed again.

It was a basketball game almost devoid of baskets and even shot attempts, but it was nonetheless a win for Notre Dame, the 93rd for the senior class of Jackson, Harangody and Jonathan Peoples, a school record. The Irish advance to the Big East Tournament semifinals for the first time since 2007.

“I don’t call it frustrating,” said Jamie. “You have to be prepared and understand what they’re doing. You know it’s going to be low-scoring. You know it’s going to be a low-possession game. You know it’s going to be a close game. … We were in a position to win the game, so I don’t say we were frustrated.”

“Sometimes they come down and rush it,” Jackson countered. “Then they have to get back and guard again. If they miss, it makes it more aggravating and frustrating for them.”

Notre Dame has transformed itself from a team going nowhere to a club sure to get a mid-seed when the NCAA Tournament draw is announced on Sunday evening. Apparently, the Irish needed to become mind-numbingly boring to get here from there.

Notre Dame, however, went on a four-game winning streak, including wins over NCAA-bound Georgetown, Pittsburgh and Marquette. On Wednesday night in Madison Square Garden, Notre Dame’s NCAA hopes completed the full 180 from vanished to realized in a 68-54 win over Seton Hall.

There’s been ample discussion in the last week about how the Irish have changed in Harangody’s absence. Many have concluded that the Irish are better without the three-time first-team All-Big East player in the lineup.

In the big man’s absence, Notre Dame immediately allowed fewer points, but most of that was due to a slower tempo. The Irish have reduced their pace by about seven possessions per game with Harangody out.

When asked about what has changed most about his team, Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey said, “The offensive tempo — that’s the biggest change we’ve made. We’ve really been extremely patient, and that’s benefited us, especially when we can get the lead.”

While the tempo immediately slowed in Harangody’s absence, not until the last week of the season did Notre Dame’s defense show real improvement. Against Connecticut one week ago, Notre Dame held the Huskies to 39.4 eFG and kept them off the boards in stifling UConn’s offense to just .82 points per possession. It was an impressive performance but one mitigated by the Huskies’ season-long inability to hit shots and their fourth-worst Big East offense.

Three days later in Milwaukee, Harangody was back but played limited minutes. Against a much better Marquette offense, Notre Dame held the Golden Eagles to .95 points per possession thanks to another impressive field-goal defending performance (41.4 eFG). Notre Dame, a team that rarely even tries for steals, forced 13 turnovers.

Marquette shoots well and doesn’t turn it over, so that performance was something of a revelation. The revelation turned into gospel against Seton Hall on Wednesday when the Pirates scored just 54 points in 61 possessions (.81 PPP). The Pirates’ 36.2 percent eFG was its lowest mark of the entire season. Seton Hall sniper Jeremy Hazell made just 1-of-9 3-pointers and needed 16 shots to get a team-high 14 points.

“I thought we were great on Hazell,” said Brey. “There was a really good awareness of the 3-point line, especially Hazell.”

A day after scoring 55 points in the first half and 54 points in the second half of that memorable victory over Providence, the Pirates managed just 54 points in the entire game.

“I think you’re seeing how we’re changing as a team here, even in March,” said Brey. “Field-goal percentage, defense was great. We limited them on their possessions. It was our tempo.”

As much as the consecutive defensive performances had to be equal parts shocking and encouraging for Notre Dame fans long used to having to watch their teams win shootouts, the decline in offense in the final two games was discouraging. The .951 and .996 points per possession that the Irish scored in the wins over Connecticut and Marquette were the second and fourth worst totals of the conference season for Notre Dame.

Re-enter Mr. Harangody. Carleton Scott, whose defensive effort had largely been credited with UND’s improvement, picked up his second foul with 16:45 left in the first half. Brey had no choice but to go to the all-time leading scorer in Big East history.

On the first possession after Harangody’s entrance, Seton Hall’s Jeff Robinson drove and scored with ease, and the critics seemed immediately justified — Harangody gives up more points than he scores, they smirked.

But, with Notre Dame down 9-2 after seven inept offensive possessions, the forward showed why they keep him around in South Bend. He drove and scored on Robinson, then flushed a score off a nice feed from Tory Jackson. Those were just four of the 15 points Harangody would score in 15 first-half minutes. He also grabbed nine rebounds to help turn a seven-point deficit into a 28-21 halftime lead.

“The microwave was ready to go tonight,” said Brey. “It was not anything anybody hasn’t seen. We’re going to need that as he comes back.”

“The last couple of days of practice have been great for me just to get back in the flow,” said Harangody. “I feel right now that I started to get a little bit of swagger I had before the injury, a little more of the confidence.”

Brey went back to Scott for most of the second half — he played 16 second-half minutes to Harangody’s nine. It’s ironic that Seton Hall actually found points easier to come by during the half when Scott saw most of the action — 35 points on 31 possessions — rather than the half in which Harangody played most — 21 points on 30 possessions. This basketball thing is an inexact science.

The lasting lesson of Harangody’s absence and re-emergence on Wednesday was probably one learned by Brey. For the last two seasons, Brey thought Harangody’s offense too valuable to take off the floor to improve his defense. Only through the injury did Brey learn that his team can function without the all-time Irish great on the floor.

“We prided ourselves on being one of the leading scoring teams,” said Brey. “A real fun team to watch when we’re running and firing — getting 25 assists. Those days are over.”

While the days of free-and-easy ND may be gone, the days of playing in the NCAA Tournament have certainly arrived again. With Tyrone Nash, Scott and Harangody, Brey has a true forward rotation that allows him to mix and match for the opponent and game situation. The Irish are now a much different team than they’ve been since Harangody arrived and much better than they’ve been in two seasons.

It’s really the perfect setup for ultimate exposure. When the Big East Tournament starts on Tuesday, the only real competition for media attention is the Horizon, Sun Belt and Summit finals (unless you fancy some Atlantic 10 pre-quarters). By Friday and Saturday, when the other big leagues are giving fans their first tastes of quality games, the Big East trumps them with matchups of top teams in its semis and final. The Big East finally relents on Sunday for a few hours, but then comes the selection show, in which Big East teams are likely to make up at least an eighth of the field. The conference may not end up owning the NCAA Tournament, but it has property rights to most of this seven-day period of college hoops gluttony.

With an unrivaled media footprint — especially now that either ESPN2 or ESPNU is carrying the games on Second Division Day (Tuesday) — what can college hoops fans expect from the Garden this week?

Tournament Overview

The first thing that pops out when looking at the Big East Tournament bracket is how strong the top half is. I’d argue that Syracuse, Villanova, Marquette and Georgetown are four of the six best teams in the conference, but they will meet each other in the quarterfinals if the seeds hold. Also, St. John’s is playing in its home arena and is a strong No. 13 seed, and Connecticut — while in a tailspin — still outscored its opponents in conference play and enters the Big East Tournament ninth in the league in efficiency margin. The potential Marquette-Villanova quarterfinal, which would be a rematch of last year’s thriller, has my mouth watering.

The strength of the top half of the bracket means that West Virginia should be heavy favorites to get through the bottom half. The Mountaineers’ defense has been sharp since it couldn’t keep from fouling in the loss to Connecticut on Feb. 22, and the offense has been consistently strong until a weak effort at Villanova on Saturday. The trick is that West Virginia has been bracketed with teams that have given it trouble this season. The quarterfinal matchup will probably be with a Louisville team that had WVU dead to rights in Morgantown before a late Cards collapse mixed with questionable officiating combined to create a West Virginia win. Bob Huggins’ team has lost to its two most likely semifinal opponents — Pittsburgh and Notre Dame. The No. 10 seed, Seton Hall, is the other possible semifinal opponent, and the Pirates took West Virginia to overtime before losing.

Dangerous Sleepers

Connecticut: Jim Calhoun benched seniors Stanley Robinson, Gavin Edwards and Jerome Dyson for nearly all of the second half of UConn’s loss to South Florida on Saturday, and he insists that the five who finished the USF game will be the five starters in Tuesday’s second game against St. John’s. With the uncertainty about what that lineup might bring for an entire game, it’s hard to call Connecticut all that dangerous. At the same time, how often does a team outscore its opponents and yet grab the No. 12 seed in its conference tournament? Connecticut enters the tournament in need of three wins to make the NCAAs. That’s probably a stretch, but it’s not hard to envision UConn defeating St. John’s, knocking off a Marquette team it lost to on a buzzer-beater earlier this season and testing a Villanova team it defeated on the road just a few weeks ago. UConn’s lack of depth makes winning on back-to-back days or three straight days a more difficult task.

Seton Hall: This tournament does not set up well for a team playing the first day making it very far, and indeed all four Day 1 winners lost on Day 2 last season. But, if there is a team playing Tuesday that has a real shot to get all the way to the semis, it’s probably Seton Hall. To get to Friday, Bobby Gonzalez’s squad would have to defeat three teams it’s already beaten. First up is a Providence team that the Pirates handled in Rhode Island on Saturday. Then comes Notre Dame, which Seton Hall defeated by three in the game where Luke Harangody was injured. Should SHU defeat Notre Dame, it would have to feel comfortable that its NCAA Tournament ticket was punched. It could play free and loose against No. 2 Pittsburgh. Seton Hall defeated Pittsburgh by three in January despite getting next to nothing from Jeremy Hazell.

Georgetown: The last sleeper is a team that gets Tuesday off, but Georgetown has a team of a quality seldom found at a No. 8 seed. And, yes, the Hoyas lost at home to likely Wednesday opponent USF and lost twice to quarterfinal opponent Syracuse, but the Hoyas are good enough to win both games even if the matchups don’t necessarily favor them. With Austin Freeman’s condition diagnosed and addressed, the Hoyas played a dominant second half against Cincinnati on Saturday. This is also a team that won at Pitt and defeated Villanova and Duke. If Georgetown were the No. 7 seed, I’d like it to get to the semis, but Notre Dame’s overtime win at Marquette puts GU in the brutal top half. With potential matchups against Pittsburgh and West Virginia — two teams they’ve already beaten — perhaps the Irish are the better sleeper bet after all.

Vulnerable High Seeds

I won’t dwell on this, because I made oblique reference to it in the section above. As well as Pittsburgh has played this season, the Panthers are not the second-best team in this tournament. I guess that’s me daring them to prove me wrong, and with wins over Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova and Marquette, I suppose Pitt already has done so. At the same time, Pittsburgh has shown vulnerability on both ends of the floor, and I’d expect those to be exposed at some points this week and perhaps early. Notre Dame is equal parts sleeper and vulnerable. With a likely Wednesday matchup against Seton Hall, the Irish can’t relish the idea of chasing around Hazell and Jordan Theodore while Herb Pope wreaks havoc inside. The Irish may be the team seeded 5-8 with both the best chance of advancing to the semis and losing in its first game.

Time for Some Bubbly

Here’s what the Big East’s bubble teams need to do to get in:

Marquette: The Golden Eagles are almost certainly in the field with their 11-7 conference record, but a home loss to Notre Dame on Saturday combined with a loss to St. John’s or UConn on Wednesday would make my heart pitter-patter at 6 p.m. on Sunday if I were an MU fan. Barring an injury to Lazar Hayward or Jimmy Butler and a loss on Wednesday, Marquette should be safe, but it would be best to win on Wednesday just for anxiety’s sake.

Notre Dame: The Irish are right with Marquette in my at-large model, but UND is generally a seed or two behind Marquette in the Bracket Matrix. That leads me to believe that Notre Dame is in want of a win on Wednesday. The Irish may not need to win, but they would be putting their fate in the hands of the committee if they lose to Seton Hall or Providence on Wednesday.

Seton Hall: I have the Pirates among the last four out in my latest projection. This means that Seton Hall will surely have to defeat Providence and Notre Dame to have a chance at dancing. I would suggest that those two wins would be enough. I’m quite certain the Pirates would make my final field should they win their first two games, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t be snubbed by the committee.

South Florida: The Bulls beat Seton Hall head-to-head — at home in overtime — and have one extra top-25 win, so it’s reasonable for some people to put USF ahead of the Pirates. Seton Hall, though, played a tougher conference schedule (fifth toughest compared to USF’s 15th toughest in the RPI) and the Pirates don’t have a single loss to a team outside the top 100. Either way, the Bulls are unlikely to be compared directly to SHU if they win twice in the Big East Tournament. That would require a win over a Georgetown team that USF defeated on Feb. 3. Duplicating that feat should punch Stan Heath’s team’s ticket.

Connecticut: Must win three. Simple as that. Anything less won’t be enough. Ken Pomeroy has UConn at 1-in-10 to do just that, and 10 percent is about right for the Huskies’ NCAA Tournament odds.

Cincinnati: Pray for rain? I suppose if the Bearcats reach the Big East Tournament final, they will be strongly considered and might get in. Let’s stick to reality, though.

Day 1 Previews

No. 16 DePaul vs. No. 9 USF; noon ET, ESPN2: These teams played last Tuesday as well, with USF winning an unimpressive 63-59 final. Demons fans may not have noticed — and judging by the attendance, you haven’t — but DePaul has actually played a lot of close games down the stretch, climbing past Rutgers and out of the cellar in efficiency margin (thank Pittsburgh for its 29-point blowout win over RU on Saturday). Nine of its last 10 losses are by single digits, including to Louisville and Syracuse. USF ranks just 13th in efficiency margin, making this a more even game than the seeds might imply. Still, USF needs to win to have a shot at the NCAA Tournament, and I don’t expect a similar performance by the Bulls that we saw by Cincinnati in a similar spot last season.

No. 13 St. John’s vs. No. 12 Connecticut; 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Red Storm played Georgetown in a comparable situation in last year’s Big East Tournament. The Hoyas came in as disappointments but with perhaps faint hopes of achieving an NCAA Tournament bid with a long run in the Garden. St. John’s was generally overlooked, but the Red Storm played well and defeated the Hoyas. A reproduction of that event would not surprise me. With two good defenses and poor offenses, this figures to be the lowest-scoring game of the tournament if it plays to form. UConn won by 16 in Hartford on Jan. 20.

No. 15 Providence vs. No. 10 Seton Hall; 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU: The Friars followed up its near-miss at Pittsburgh with a clunker in their home finale against these same Pirates. For once, the defense wasn’t the primary problem — not to imply that PC’s defense was good on Saturday. Worse was the offense, which shot just 42.3 percent eFG and committed turnovers on one quarter of its possessions. The latter has rarely been a problem this season. If the Friars can clean up the turnovers and get Greedy Peterson more involved — the double-double machine had just six points and four rebounds before fouling out — PC could pull off a crushing upset. The bad matchup for PC — and this isn’t new — is on defense, where Seton Hall doesn’t turn the ball over. Forcing turnovers is the primary way that PC gets stops, and without that out, the Friars’ only option is to pray for missed shots. Teams don’t generally miss layups.

No. 14 Rutgers vs. No. 11 Cincinnati; 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU: If St. John’s or Providence were in Rutgers’ spot, I’d really like the bigger seed, but Rutgers is just really bad. I guess it’s a testament to Fred Hill’s coaching that RU won five league games despite being outscored by 16 points per 100 possessions, but it’s also a sign that the Scarlet Knights are some combination of inconsistent and pretty awful. The 15th-ranked offense and defense in the Big East plays a Cincinnati team that again enters MSG with a lost look about it. The Bearcats had tough defeats to Marquette, West Virginia and Villanova before leading at the half at Georgetown. The second half was an embarrassment, though, with UC being outscored 45-21. UC could have used a more consistent senior season from Deonta Vaughn.

Forecast of Trepidation

West Virginia and Syracuse are the best teams in the Big East and the most likely to make the final. In the last two years, we’ve seen the top seed play a mid-seed in the final, but this feels more like a chalk year. Syracuse has the tougher route to the final, which means the Orange will likely enter the final a bit more weary, but the 2-3 zone is an equalizer for SU’s fatigue. I say West Virginia settles for too many 3-pointers, and Syracuse takes home the title by 6-8 points.

Coverage This Week

I’ll be at all five night sessions of the Big East Tournament, doing my best to provide incisive analysis for my favorite conference tournament. Check back here for nightly pieces leading up to Selection Sunday and the final Bracket Junkie.

Printable Version of Bracket »

Note: Teams deemed at least 98-percent likely to make the NCAA Tournament are in bold. Three new at-large teams earned their bold tags over the weekend — Louisville, Oklahoma State and Wake Forest. Notre Dame and Virginia Tech just missed.

Moving In as At-large: Arizona State, Mississippi, San Diego State, Washington

Moving Out as At-large: Georgia Tech, Illinois, Rhode Island, UAB

Moving In as Automatic: Vermont (America East), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)

Moving Out as Automatic: Stony Brook (America East), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Coastal Carolina (Big South)

On the Bubble: There was a lot of shuffling around the bubble this weekend with several teams suffering near-devastating losses. Georgia Tech and Illinois both had blowout losses at home. The loss for the Yellow Jackets is their third in five and fifth in seven, and more importantly, it puts them at 7-9 in conference. To me, Illinois only looked like an NCAA Tournament team for about a week all season — when it beat Wisconsin and Michigan State. We’ll see if that 10-8 conference record is enough to override losing five of six and dropping games to Georgia, Bradley and Utah out of conference. Rhode Island lost its fifth of seven against 18-loss UMass in Amherst on Saturday. That will be hard to overcome. Finally, UAB needed to win one of its two tough games this week, but the Blazers lost both by a total of seven points, including a 52-50 win at C-USA champ UTEP on Saturday.

There is a distinctly western flavor to the teams moving into the field. The Pac-10 may turn out to be the greatest beneficiary of the inability of most bubble teams to win down the stretch. Arizona State finished 12-6 in conference after a win over UCLA, and Washington had a strong second half to put Oregon State away in Corvallis. SDSU finished 11-5 in the Mountain West after having no trouble at all with lowly Air Force in Colorado Springs. Mississippi stormed back in the second half to knock off Arkansas in Fayetteville. It’s a 20 minutes that may prove decisive to the Rebels’ season.

Atlantic 10: The closing weeks of the season couldn’t have been any worse for the Atlantic 10, which once appeared likely to get five bids. In their last seven games of the season, Charlotte, Dayton and Rhode Island combined to win just five times — that’s 5-16. One of those wins was in a game between Charlotte and Rhode Island, and another was a home win over winless Fordham for Rhody. None of the five wins was against any of the league’s top three. Saint Louis has passed Charlotte and Dayton on my at-large model, but URI may be the only salvageable team. With a run to the finals of the A-10 Tournament, the Rams could dance.

Temple, Xavier and Richmond continue to play for seeding, all winning over the weekend. The A-10 Tournament champ, assuming it’s one of those three and that justice is served, should be rewarded with a No. 4 seed.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Temple (No. 4)
Xavier (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7)
Rhode Island (seventh-to-last out)

ACC: Wake Forest and Virginia Tech got the wins they needed this weekend. The Demon Deacons were victorious at home against Clemson, and the Hokies went to Atlanta and stunned Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are now in serious trouble with that ugly 7-9 conference record. In Georgia Tech’s defense, it did play the second-toughest conference schedule, getting Duke twice and Maryland on the road. The Jackets have four top-50 wins to their credit but none since January. GaTech plays North Carolina in a 7-10 game on Thursday, which is a must-win. The question is whether Paul Hewitt’s team will need a victory over Maryland in the quarterfinals. I suspect a respectable showing should be enough.

Duke and Maryland closed out their seasons with victories over lesser opposition to tie for the ACC regular-season title. The Blue Devils remain a No. 1 seed, West Virginia being the No. 2 with the only legitimate case for a No. 1 right now. Maryland could move all the way up to a No. 2 or 3 with an ACC Tournament title. A trip to the final should ensure a top-four seed.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 5)
Florida State (No. 8)
Clemson (No. 8)
Wake Forest (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for conference balancing)
Virginia Tech (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Georgia Tech (second-to-last out)

Big 12: Kansas State’s home loss to Iowa State on Saturday should all but eliminate the Wildcats from consideration for a No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, Baylor continues to have trouble finding the respect it deserves. The Bears have identical conference and overall records as K-State, and Baylor’s conference record was achieved against a slightly tougher schedule. Both teams have four wins against top-25 teams, and Baylor has an extra top-100 win. Their RPIs are a spot apart, and yet K-State is a 2 or 3 but Baylor is a 5 or 6? That can’t be right, and I don’t think it is. I suspect the committee agrees with me.

Oklahoma State clinched its berth with a blowout win over last-place Nebraska. Texas was dismantled by said Baylor team in Waco and drops to a No. 7 seed with a 9-7 conference mark.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Baylor (No. 3)
Kansas State (No. 3)
Texas A&M (No. 5)
Texas (No. 7)
Oklahoma State (No. 7)
Missouri (No. 8)

Big East: Syracuse’s loss to Louisville clinched the Cardinals’ bid without hurting Syracuse severely. The Orange is still locked into a No. 1 seed and has a shot at the top overall spot should it win the Big East Tournament and Kansas not win the Big 12. West Virginia has emerged as the strongest No. 2 seed after its overtime win at Villanova. WVU could nab the last No. 1 from Duke should the Mountaineers advance further in their conference tournament. I still have Villanova as a solid No. 2, though I see some have dropped the Wildcats to a No. 3. With the main competition coming from Pittsburgh, New Mexico, Purdue and Ohio State — and three of those five teams getting No. 2’s — I suspect VU is in fine shape for now.

The biggest Big East news of the weekend came from Milwaukee where Notre Dame defeated Marquette. The Irish are on the edge of a berth and may make the field even with a pre-quarters loss to the winner of Seton Hall-Providence. That game could be a play-in game for Seton Hall, which defeated Providence on the road this weekend. It would be SHU’s second win over UND and might be the Big East’s best shot at a ninth bid. On the other hand, USF is also in the mix after defeating UConn on Saturday. Dominique Jones’ boys will play DePaul before getting a shot at Georgetown. A win over the Hoyas — which would be USF’s second this season — would make the Bulls hard to keep out.

As for Connecticut, some are saying that the Huskies need two wins in New York, but I’m not sure defeats of St. John’s and Marquette will be enough. I think three is the number, which means UConn would need to also down Villanova on Thursday.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 3)
Georgetown (No. 5)
Louisville (No. 8)
Marquette (No. 10, moved to No. 9 for conference balancing)
Notre Dame (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Seton Hall (fourth-to-last out)
South Florida (sixth-to-last out)

Big Ten: Illinois is out right now. With an RPI of 77, the Illini can play their way back to the bubble with a win over Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament on Friday. Sunday’s 15-point home loss was as bad as it gets and the second time in a row that the Illini were a no-show against one of the Big Ten’s top four at home.

Ohio State will be one of the interesting seeding decisions on Selection Sunday. The Buckeyes are now 13-2 in their last 15 games with wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois (twice) and Michigan State. Their only losses were at home to Purdue and at West Virginia. The question is how much the selection committee will discount the losses OSU suffered in Turner’s absence. The Buckeyes were 3-3 in those six games, but there’s no guarantee they would have won at Butler (eight-point loss) and at Wisconsin (22-point loss) even with Turner (the other loss was at Michigan by nine). This is something I’ll be mulling considerably over the next week. I don’t think the committee will give OSU a benefit of the doubt all the way to a No. 1 seed, but a No. 2 seed seems likely if OSU advances to the Big Ten final or wins it.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Ohio State (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 4)
Illinois (fifth-to-last out)

Mountain West: New Mexico is a No. 2 seed. Color me uncomfortable with that. I’m assuming a couple of major-conference teams will pass the Lobos this week, but what if they win the Mountain West Tournament? At that point, Steve Alford’s club would be 31-3 with a 5-0 record against the RPI top 25. Brigham Young could play its way to as high as a No. 3 seed by winning the MWC Tourney. I think a 4 or a 5 would fit nicely should BYU make it to at least the final, but there is stiff competition for those spots.

On the bubble, UNLV isn’t doing much, but not much is more than enough with teams falling around it. If the Rebels can win their quarterfinal game against Utah on Thursday then they should be in. The Aztecs have Colorado State in the quarters before a shot at New Mexico. Getting to the final should clinch a bid for SDSU, but even losing in the semis may be enough, though I doubt it.

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 2)
Brigham Young (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 11, eighth-to-last in)
San Diego State (No. 12, second-to-last in)

Pac-10: Oh, my! Dick Enberg will be in Los Angeles for the Pac-10 Tournament, and suddenly this year’s dead horse of major-conference basketball has a chance to showcase teams with legitimate NCAA Tournament hopes. Cal, Washington and Arizona State all got out of the final weekend unscathed, and they are all in the field for now. I maintain that Cal is in if it avoids a quarterfinal loss to either Oregon or Washington State. I’m growing more and more certain that should Washington or Arizona State reach the Pac-10 final, that team would also be in. Despite having the better conference record, ASU is probably less likely to make the NCAAs than Washington because the Sun Devils have just one top-50 win and three top-100 wins. The Huskies two top-25 wins and six top-100 wins.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Arizona State (No. 13, last in)

SEC: Kentucky surely locked up a No. 1 seed with its win over Florida on Sunday. Now the Wildcats have a chance at the top overall seed if they can win the SEC Tournament. Vanderbilt had a bad loss to South Carolina at home, and that loss moves the Commodores off the top four seed lines. Tennessee might have the most to gain from a deep SEC Tournament run. Even a No. 2 seed is not out of the question with the tournament title.

In most years, Florida — losers of three straight — would be in a very tough spot and in need of two SEC Tournament wins to clinch a bid. This year, though, the Gators should get in with a win over Auburn on Thursday. Mississippi will play the winner of Tennessee-LSU (in other words, Tennessee) in the quarters on Friday. A Rebels win would probably seal the deal. If they lose in the quarters, though, then I think they’re probably going to be on the outside looking in. After a no-show performance against Tennessee on Saturday night, Mississippi State probably needs to reach the SEC Tournament final to have a legitimate shot at a bid. To get there, MSU will likely have to beat Florida and Vanderbilt, which means the Bulldogs will have earned their bid.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Tennessee (No. 4)
Vanderbilt (No. 5)
Florida (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Mississippi (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
Mississippi State (ninth-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: Another year, another second-place Missouri Valley Conference team that will likely be left out of the field. The Shockers have 10 top-100 wins but just one against the top 50 (Northern Iowa at home). In recent seasons, similar profiles were not good enough for Creighton or Illinois State, so I’m guessing the same will be true of WSU, which rarely shows up on last-teams-out lists for most projectors. I’ve given the Shockers ample love on mine.

There are two big games for bubble teams tonight in the West Coast Conference and the CAA. Saint Mary’s plays Gonzaga, and William & Mary plays Old Dominion. Let’s compare Gonzaga and Old Dominion for a moment. Both have RPIs in the mid-30s. Both have one top-25 win. Gonzaga has two more top-50 wins but ODU equals the Bulldogs in top-100 wins with eight. Gonzaga has one extra bad loss. ODU went 15-3 in a stronger conference than the one in which Gonzaga achieved its 14-2. ODU does have three more losses but also a tougher strength of schedule. Both teams have 25 wins. I’m not implying that Old Dominion should be ahead of Gonzaga, but how can one team be a No. 5 or 6 seed and the other not get in if it loses its conference tournament final? Surely that’s not the case. Gonzaga is definitely over-respected in comparison to the other top mid-major teams because of the Zags’ reputation, but I suspect Old Dominion will get in regardless of what happens in Richmond on Monday night.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 7)
UTEP (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Utah State (No. 10)
Siena (No. 11)
Memphis (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 12, fifth-to-last in)
UAB (last out)
Wichita State (third-to-last out)
William & Mary (eighth-to-last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (10th-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Notes: Ohio State was moved from Milwaukee to Providence, and Pittsburgh was moved from Providence to Milwaukee so that Brigham Young could be placed in a pod where the Cougars would be able to avoid a Sunday game. This is the first time I’ve had to move pod assignments because of Brigham Young, and I hope it’s the last. Also, in the conference bid breakdowns, I am going to put teams I consider locks for the NCAA Tournament in bold. My definition of a lock is a team that could lose out and would still be at least 98-percent likely to get in. Right now, I have 31 teams as locks plus 22 other bids accounted for by conference champions. That leaves 12 spots still up for grabs, though Oklahoma State and Louisville are just about locked in.

Bracketing Challenges: Kansas slips just past Syracuse and into the top overall seed position after defeating Kansas State on Wednesday. This is very close, however, and the top overall seed will likely come down to who goes further in their conference tournaments. Kentucky could also be in the mix if it wins the SEC Tournament and neither Kansas nor Syracuse wins its conference tournament.

I don’t see how Duke is not still a No. 1 seed. The Blue Devils have three top-25 wins, same as Kentucky; and nine top-50 wins, four more than Kentucky. Of course, Duke has three more losses than the Wildcats, but is it possible that the difference in losses can be found in the difference between Kentucky’s 41st-ranked strength of schedule and Duke’s seventh-ranked one? Yet, Duke is on the No. 2 seed line for some people, and Kentucky is firmly ensconced as a No. 1. Interesting. The Blue Devils’ grip on a top seed is not firm, and a slip-up in the conference tournament could combine with a conference tournament championship for any of a half-dozen teams to knock Duke off the line, but right now, I don’t find a compelling argument against Duke.

As a whole, I really feel comfortable with the way I’ve seeded these teams. There are some tricky seedings on lines four through seven, but — with the exception of the teams I moved up or down for conference balancing, most of the seeds “feel” right. Many of you may disagree with that assessment, and feel free to voice your differences in the comments section or via e-mail. Nine days to go until Selection Sunday!

Moving In as At-large: Memphis, Rhode Island

Moving Out as At-large: Connecticut, Dayton

Moving In as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)

Moving Out as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

On the Bubble: Though I like the seeding for this projection, the bubble is an absolute mess. Any of the last five in could reasonably be left out. The problem is finding the teams to replace them. Illinois has lost four of five and still can’t manage to find its way out of the field. Rhode Island dropped four of five before it vaulted back in with a comfortable home win over Charlotte. Memphis enters the field for the first time after a road win over UAB, but the Blazers maintain their spot thanks to a strong non-conference performance and an 11-4 record in the Conference USA. Saint Mary’s hasn’t played since Saturday, and that was more than good enough to stay in the field.

On the wrong side of the bubble, a couple of Pac-10 teams are inching closer. Arizona State and Washington both have shots at bids if they reach the conference tournament final. Their potential semifinal matchup in the Pac-10 Tournament could prove vital. San Diego State had a routine home win and actually has a profile similar to UAB’s, but the Blazers got the nod thanks to a better overall record and two more wins against top-100 opponents. Then there’s Mississippi with its weak record — 8-7 — in the lesser half of the SEC, but the Rebels do have 20 wins against a pretty solid schedule. Connecticut, Mississippi State and Dayton each suffered damaging losses this week. For UConn and UD, the losses ensure conference records that will be eyesores to the committee. For MSU, the loss to a weak opponent — Auburn — is the Bulldogs’ fifth against teams outside of the RPI top-100. Set that against Rick Stansbury’s team’s one top-50 win. As you can see, determining the most deserving at-large teams was a lot like naming the most reasonable talking head on one of those awful afternoon ESPN shows.

Atlantic 10: Temple had a very fine win at Saint Louis this week. With that victory, the Owls are one step closer to a share of the A-10 title. Fran Dunphy’s club could peak at a No. 4 seed with a good run in Atlantic City for the A-10 Tournament. Xavier defeated Fordham and, like Temple, figures to slot somewhere on the 4-6 range. Richmond had a terrific comeback win over Dayton on Thursday, a victory that may have sealed the Flyers’ fate. The Spiders head to a sputtering Charlotte team to play for seeding.

URI got a win it needed against Charlotte, but it can’t allow itself to fall at UMass. A home loss to the Minutemen in their last regular-season game a year ago doomed the Rams’ at-large hopes. URI’s RPI is in the 20s now but is unlikely to stay there without a run to the A-10 final, though it needn’t get that far to secure a bid. Dayton is the tough-luck team in the nation this year. The Flyers could probably share that honor with Penn State, but the Nittany Lions aren’t in a fight for an NCAA bid. Brian Gregory’s team has lost seven straight games decided by five points or fewer — with a six-point overtime win against Duquesne thrown in. Dayton hosts Saint Louis on Saturday needing a win just to get to 9-7 in conference. That’s not a league record from the A-10 that will impress many committee members, though St. Joseph’s got in with a 9-7 record and a run to the A-10 final in 2008. That’s the task for the Flyers.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Temple (No. 5)
Xavier (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7, moved to No. 8 for conference balancing)
Rhode Island (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for conference balancing; fifth-to-last in)
Dayton (eighth-to-last out)

ACC: Home wins this week for Clemson and Florida State locked in a winning conference record for both teams. The losses for Georgia Tech and Wake Forest have dropped both teams into improbably precarious positions. Georgia Tech hosts Virginia Tech this weekend, and Wake Forest hosts Clemson. GaTech needs a win just to get to .500 in conference, and the Demon Deacons are desperate to stop a slide that has reached four straight. The good news is that the bubble is so weak that both teams still maintain a margin for error.

Virginia Tech halted a three-game losing streak with a home win over NC State on Wednesday, but the Hokies now travel to Georgia Tech where a loss would drop VT closer to the cutline. Still, a 9-7 record in the ACC — that’s where the Hokies would be with a loss in Atlanta — is probably stronger than what most of the teams near the bubble will be able to show to the committee, despite just two top-50 wins.

Maryland’s seed is starting to fall better in line with its play now that the Terps have defeated Duke. Maryland now has six top-50 wins.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 5)
Clemson (No. 7)
Florida State (No. 8)
Georgia Tech (No. 10)
Wake Forest (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)

Big 12: I nearly bolded Oklahoma State, but a Cowboys loss to Nebraska in Stillwater on Saturday followed by a first-round Big 12 Tournament loss next week could conceivably put OSU in jeopardy. A win over the Cornhuskers will remove all doubt.

I still see Baylor, Texas A&M and Texas as being underseeded in many projections. It doesn’t seem that many people understand just how strong the Big 12 is this year. Do a side-by-side comparison of Vanderbilt and Baylor’s qualifications and tell me how they can be 2-3 seed lines apart. Also, I think Texas is suffering from bad public relations. Because the Longhorns aren’t No. 1-seed good, they’re being dropped down further than they should. This is still a 23-7 team with five wins against top-50 teams and nine against top-100 teams without a single loss to a team outside the top 100.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Baylor (No. 4)
Texas A&M (No. 4)
Texas (No. 5)
Missouri (No. 7)
Oklahoma State (No. 8, moved to No. 7 for conference balancing)

Big East: The winner of Saturday’s West Virginia-Villanova matchup has the inside track at unseating Duke for the last No. 1 seed. A WVU loss would give Villanova a sweep, making it more difficult for the committee to slot the Mountaineers over the Wildcats even if WVU outperforms Villanova at the Big East Tournament. Pittsburgh stays firmly on the No. 3 seed line thanks to Ashton Gibbs’ 30-foot game-winner against Providence. A Pittsburgh win over Rutgers combined with a WVU win at Nova would create a three-way tie for second place in the Big East, and the Panthers would win the tiebreaker. Should that happen, Pitt would be a No. 2 seed in the Big East Tournament for the second straight year, despite all the personnel losses from last season.

Georgetown has now lost two straight as well as one of its top players in Austin Freeman. The assumption is that Freeman will be back for the Big East Tournament, if not sooner, but that’s not a guarantee for the junior recently diagnosed with diabetes. Marquette continues to rise, this time after a dominant victory over Louisville. I’m going to leave the Cardinals off the list of locks. They are just a spot ahead of Wake Forest in my at-large model and have just three top-50 wins.

Notre Dame might clinch a bid with a win at Marquette on Saturday, though the Golden Eagles have lost just once since Jan. 23. Short of a road victory, Notre Dame will need a win and probably two at Madison Square Garden to boost an RPI that currently sits at 63. UConn has to win at USF and then likely add two more at MSG to secure a bid. The best the Huskies can do is 8-10 in conference, and that will be hard for the committee to ignore, regardless of how difficult their schedule has been. USF and Seton Hall continued to stay within reach of the field thanks to road victories over the two worst teams in the Big East. Both teams need to win until Thursday’s Big East quarterfinals, and then we’ll see where each stands if that happens.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 3)
Georgetown (No. 5)
Marquette (No. 8)
Louisville (No. 9)
Notre Dame (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for conference balancing; seventh-to-last in)
Connecticut (fifth-to-last out)
Seton Hall (seventh-to-last out)
South Florida (10th-to-last out)

Big Ten: Purdue, Ohio State and Michigan State appear likely to finish 14-4 in conference with Wisconsin a step behind. All four teams have played portions of the season without their best players. Of course, Purdue is the only team that will continue to play that way. These four teams may look similar, but let’s keep in mind how many top-50 wins each has: Purdue, 6; Ohio State, 5; Wisconsin, 6; Michigan State, 3. Also, MSU lost Kalin Lucas for just one full game. On the other hand, Evan Turner missed six, and Jon Leuer missed nine. Just some things to think about.

At the bubble, Illinois continues to hang around, but I’m not sure the Illini can survive a home loss to Wisconsin. The Illini’s RPI will be in the 70s with a loss, and I doubt their quality wins can overcome an 18-13 record (plus a loss in the Big Ten Tournament) with that RPI. Minnesota, meanwhile, is done. Twenty-eight point losses to teams going nowhere tend to do that to a team. I suppose that the Gophers could be in the mix with a run to the Big Ten final, but let me know when that happens.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Ohio State (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 5)
Illinois (No. 13, last in)

Mountain West: The Lobos continued to do what they do — win by less than one would expect but win nonetheless. This time, it was a seven-point home win against seventh-place TCU, New Mexico’s 14th straight win. Steve Alford’s team may not be that good, but it sure does win a lot, and I figure that will be rewarded. I’m less comfortable with Brigham Young as a No. 6, as I could see the Cougars higher. BYU, though, is just 4-4 vs. the top 50 without a top-25 win.

UNLV is one of the primary beneficiaries of the weak bubble. Last season, the three straight February losses might have doomed the Rebels, but they still look fairly comfortable this season. Lon Kruger’s bunch will close the season with Wyoming at home before hosting the Mountain West Tournament. Two more wins should be enough. San Diego State is basically UNLV with two fewer quality wins, and that makes all the difference. SDSU needs to close out the season with a win at Air Force and probably reach the MWC final to get in. Although, that appeared to be the formula last March as well, and it didn’t work out (unjustly, I’d maintain).

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Brigham Young (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 11, eighth-to-last in)
San Diego State (second-to-last out)

Pac-10: I won’t put Cal as a lock yet, but I’m definitely more bullish on the Bears than most. Assuming Cal finishes out the regular season with a win at Stanford and avoids an upset in the Pac-10 quarterfinals, I think the Bears will be in. Washington and Arizona State have been helped by the bubble slippage. ASU has now won seven of nine with its only losses being at Washington and at Cal. Washington has won three straight after the disappointing home defeat to USC. The Huskies’ two wins over RPI top-25 teams — Texas A&M and Cal at home — give them the edge over ASU despite the Sun Devils’ superior conference record. The committee has been generous with Pac-10 bubble teams in the past, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it gives the nod to one of these two next Sunday.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (last out)
Arizona State (third-to-last out)

SEC: Vanderbilt just edged out Baylor for the last No. 3 seed primarily due to that strong, 12-3 conference record, though I’m not convinced that Baylor’s 10-5 in the Big 12 South is substantively worse. Tennessee got the nod on the No. 4 line, though I could see any number of teams ahead of the Vols here, particularly Maryland, Temple or Michigan State. Either way, both teams are in and — along with UK — will see to it that the SEC’s stay in the NCAA Tournament is longer this year than last.

Florida, like Wake Forest, has failed to move closer to the bubble despite recent losses. The Gators now head to Kentucky. If they don’t win there, they can ill afford to lose their first-round SEC Tournament game, which will likely come against a tricky Auburn or Alabama club. Mississippi and Mississippi State are hanging around, the latter despite a damaging road loss to Auburn on Wednesday. MSU must beat Tennessee at home this weekend to have a shot. As for the Rebels, they do have that neutral-court win over Kansas State in November, but then there’s the 8-7 conference record and the sweep at the hands of Mississippi State. Andy Kennedy’s team visits Arkansas this weekend. A win there will be the first of several steps toward an at-large.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 3)
Tennessee (No. 4)
Florida (No. 11, ninth-to-last in)
Mississippi (fourth-to-last out)
Mississippi State (sixth-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: With the bubble so weak as it stands, I’m convinced that teams like Northern Iowa, Utah State, UTEP and Old Dominion have terrific shots at at-large bids if they lose in their conference tournaments. There aren’t as many major-conference teams with qualifications to steal bids from teams that dominated mid-major leagues like these teams did all season.

The worrisome thing about the bubble for mid-major teams right now is that so many of them are just barely on the positive side of it. UAB, Memphis, Saint Mary’s and Rhode Island are all among the last five in. We’ve seen in recent seasons, with the omissions of Illinois State, Creighton, San Diego State and Saint Mary’s, among others, that the committee can be unforgiving with the little guy.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 7)
Northern Iowa (No. 8)
Utah State (No. 9)
UTEP (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 10)
Siena (No. 10)
Memphis (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
UAB (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Wichita State (ninth-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: Ideally, one would like to avoid any recent NCAA Tournament or regular-season rematches in the first two rounds of the Tournament. This is not a hard and fast rule, though, as Gonzaga and Indiana were matched up early in two consecutive tournaments (2006 and 2007). In this bracket, Illinois and Vanderbilt are set up for a potential regular-season rematch in the second round. To change this would require moving teams a seed line up or down, and the NCAA Tournament committee should be more committed to keeping teams on their true seed line rather than avoiding potential second-round rematches. The NCAA doesn’t reveal which teams were moved from their true seed line, so we don’t know for sure how common this practice is.

The two primary seeding challenges were at the ends of the No. 2 and No. 4 seed lines. Villanova got the nod over New Mexico mainly because it’s hard for me to see a Mountain West team gaining a No. 2 seed without a highly impressive non-conference profile and as long as there are other teams with legitimate cases. New Mexico defeated Cal, Texas A&M and Dayton out of conference but is lacking a top win to earn a No. 2 seed. Ohio State may get that last No. 2 in some projections. At the end of the No. 4 seed line, Michigan State edged out Tennessee, with MSU’s play without Kalin Lucas serving as the tiebreaker.

Moving In as At-large: Notre Dame, Saint Mary’s

Moving Out as At-large: Rhode Island, San Diego State

Moving In as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Quinnipiac (Northeast), North Texas (Sun Belt)

Moving Out as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Robert Morris (Northeast), Troy (Sun Belt)

On the Bubble: After defeating Pittsburgh and Georgetown in a matter of days, Notre Dame jumps into the field and does so with room to spare. It is arguable whether UND deserves to be ahead of Virginia Tech in the last-10-in pecking order, but the Irish are clearly ahead of Illinois, Saint Mary’s and Dayton. And as for VaTech, Notre Dame has a 3-0 edge in wins over RPI top-25 teams. Connecticut stays in despite blowing the lead at home to Louisville on Sunday. That gives the Big East nine teams, which would be a record. I still think it’s unlikely that the Big East will get nine on the key date — March 14. Mid-major upsets in conference tournaments and teams and Big East teams around the bubble knocking each other off — Notre Dame still has Connecticut and Marquette left to play — figure to cut the total to eight eventually. Right now, though, I’m convinced that all nine would get in.

Atlantic 10: It was always unlikely that the Atlantic 10 would get six teams into the NCAAs but five seemed like a real possibility until recently. That is looking less and less likely after Charlotte lost to George Washington and Rhode Island lost to Saint Bonaventure both on the road on Saturday. The Rams drop out of the projection for the first time this season. Both teams are losers of four of their last five, and they meet in Kingston on Wednesday. Dayton had a dominant home win over UMass and now travels to Richmond on Thursday. A sweep during this final week of the season — at Richmond, vs. Saint Louis — should put the Flyers in pretty good shape.

I want to focus primarily on the bubble teams in this breakdown, but I’ve got to mention Xavier’s two-overtime win against Richmond in Cincinnati on Sunday. Richmond’s two weaknesses — getting to the foul line and offensive rebounding — were lethal on Sunday. The loss all but eliminates the Spiders from the conference race. If Temple can avoid the upset at Saint Louis on Wednesday, it now looks likely that the Owls and Musketeers will tie for the conference title at 14-2. Temple won the head-to-head matchup at home by five on Jan. 20.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Xavier (No. 5)
Temple (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 8)
Dayton (No. 13, last in)
Rhode Island (third-to-last out)
Charlotte (11th-to-last out)

ACC: A double-overtime home loss to Maryland puts Virginia Tech back at risk. Two more wins — including the ACC Tournament — figure to get the Hokies in, and a visit from N.C. State on Wednesday should provide one of them. Two more wins would give VaTech 23 on the season and a winning record in conference, which would seem to be a lock for the NCAAs, but if there ever were an ACC team to be left out in such a situation, it would be this one. Sixteen of VaTech’s 21 wins to date are against teams outside the RPI top 100, and the Hokies have no victories against the RPI top 25.

Wake Forest is the ACC team second most at risk after a nine-point home loss to North Carolina. That gives the Demon Deacons three straight losses with a trip to Florida State and a visit from Clemson to finish the season. As strange as it would have been to say two weeks ago when they were the top five seed, the Deacons need to finish 1-1 to make sure they don’t enter the ACC Tournament with work to do.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 7)
Clemson (No. 8)
Florida State (No. 9)
Georgia Tech (No. 9)
Wake Forest (No. 10)
Virginia Tech (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)

Big 12: There’s really nothing left to talk about at the bubble. Oklahoma State hardly looked challenged in defeating the top-ranked Jayhawks in Stillwater. There isn’t a Big 12 team within 15 spots of the bubble on either side. The interesting thing, to me, is seeing where all of these teams get seeded. Texas and Baylor are particularly intriguing, as I still see the Bears consistently under-seeded.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Baylor (No. 3)
Texas A&M (No. 5)
Texas (No. 5)
Missouri (No. 6)
Oklahoma State (No. 7)

Big East: Louisville’s road win at Connecticut was crucial because neither of the Cards’ final two games is a likely win. Louisville heads to Marquette on Tuesday before hosting Syracuse on Saturday. A split will ensure a fourth straight NCAA Tournament for Rick Pitino’s team. Two losses mean Louisville will have to win at least once in the Big East Tournament. Marquette’s third straight overtime win in three games — all in the road — puts the Golden Eagles at 10-6 in the Big East with two home games left. Two more wins across the end of the regular season and the Big East Tournament will guarantee Marquette a spot, and even just one might be enough.

Notre Dame’s incredible offenses performances last week have put the Irish on the doorstep to the NCAAs, but there is still plenty of work to do. The Irish host Connecticut on Wednesday before finishing the season at Marquette. A sweep and UND will have punched its ticket. A split sends the Irish to the Big East Tournament needing at least one win. UConn hopes that its squandered Sunday lead doesn’t come back to bite it. The Huskies travel to Notre Dame and USF to end the conference season. As with Notre Dame, a sweep will get UConn in, but a split means Jim Calhoun’s club will have to do some winning at MSG.

On the wrong side of the bubble are Cincinnati, Seton Hall and South Florida. The Bearcats tried to do what Notre Dame did on Saturday — beat a quality opponent on the road — but blew a halftime lead at West Virginia. With Villanova at home and Georgetown on the road to end the season, UC has a chance to make some noise and join the party. Win both, and UC enters the Big East Tournament in terrific shape. Get a split, and the Bearcats will need two wins at a minimum in New York. USF and Seton Hall both need sweeps in the final week of the season to get to .500 in conference and position themselves for a run at an at-large in the Big East Tournament.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 3)
Georgetown (No. 4)
Louisville (No. 8)
Marquette (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Connecticut (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Notre Dame (No. 12, fifth-to-last in)
Cincinnati (fourth-to-last out)
Seton Hall (11th-to-last out)
South Florida (13th-to-last out)

Big Ten: Illinois’ home loss to Minnesota brings both teams closer to the cut line. The Illini are right on the edge with a trip to Ohio State and a visit from Wisconsin to close out the season. Saturday’s home game against a beatable Minnesota team was the one the Illini needed. The Golden Gophers still have a lot more work to do than some projections would indicate. With an RPI of 69 and mediocre play over the last two months, Minnesota needs to start by winning its last two games — at Michigan, vs. Iowa — and then see where it stands entering the Big Ten Tournament.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Ohio State (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 4)
Illinois (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Minnesota (ninth-to-last out)

Mountain West: UNLV and San Diego State are the teams in question here. UNLV defeated a poor Air Force team on the road on Saturday, and SDSU was on a bye. Both dropped a few notches in my model. Neither can afford to lose another game until at least the Mountain West Conference semifinals.

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Brigham Young (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
San Diego State (last out)

Pac-10: Cal has now put together six dominant performances in seven with that strange loss to Oregon State mixed in. The Bears throttled Arizona State by 16 on Saturday to capture at least a share of the Pac-10 title. I still see Cal as low as a No. 12 seed in some places, but I suspect the Bears will get to dance if they can beat Stanford at Maples Pavilion on Saturday and the win their quarterfinal Pac-10 Tournament game. ASU’s loss — and the margin of it — probably means Herb Sendek’s team will need to win the conference tournament, but it could perhaps sneak in by winning its next four until the Pac-10 title game. Washington did what it needed to do at Washington State, but the Huskies may not have enough chances to impress down the stretch. The Pac-10’s best shot at getting two bids remains Cal losing in the conference tournament final.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Arizona State (fifth-to-last out)
Washington (eighth-to-last out)

SEC: Unable to make things easy on themselves, the Gators lost by two at a tough Georgia team on Saturday. With a visit from Vanderbilt followed by a trip to Kentucky to end the regular season, there is suddenly a real chance that Florida could fall out of the field. If the Gators win one of their final two, they should be fine regardless of what happens in the SEC Tournament. Mississippi State got the win it needed at South Carolina on Saturday. A win at Auburn followed by a win at home over Tennessee and a quarterfinal victory in the SEC Tournament should get the Bulldogs in. Finally, Mississippi has quietly won two in a row after a three-game losing streak. Much like Minnesota in the Big Ten, the Rebels need to defeat their final two opponents — LSU and Arkansas — to enter the SEC Tournament with a legitimate chance to dance.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 4)
Tennessee (No. 5)
Florida (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Mississippi State (second-to-last out)
Mississippi (seventh-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: I’m not convinced that Saint Mary’s can get in as an at-large once all results are in. SMC would need everything to break right in the other conference tournaments. The issue is that SMC won’t have the same opportunities to come up with big wins in its conference tournament as other bubble teams will. Right now, though, I give the Gaels the nod.

I am now convinced that Utah State will get in as an at-large if it loses in the WAC Tournament final. Butler, Gonzaga and Northern Iowa are almost certain to get at-large bids if any of them should lose in its conference tournaments. I also think Old Dominion is in a strong position, though not as strong as Utah State’s. The Colonial has enough good teams to knock off ODU, and the Monarchs will likely be right at the bubble on Selection Sunday if they do lose. Then there’s Siena and UTEP. I don’t think Siena gets in without winning the MAAC Tournament, and I don’t see UTEP as looking much stronger right now, but the Conference USA champ definitely has a better shot than the MAAC champ should it fall short in Tulsa.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 7)
Northern Iowa (No. 7)
Utah State (No. 8)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
UTEP (No. 10)
UAB (No. 11, eighth-to-last in)
Siena (No. 11)
Saint Mary’s (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Memphis (sixth-to-last out)
Wichita State (10th-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: I’ll discuss the biggest challenge — finding the final at-large team — in the “On the Bubble” section below. As far as seeding challenges, the Big Ten’s penchant for major injuries is causing a lot of ambiguity. Injuries to Purdue’s Robbie Hummel, Ohio State’s Evan Turner and Michigan State’s Kalin Lucas are all likely to affect their teams’ seeding. In this projection, Purdue gets bumped down to a No. 2 seed after word that Hummel will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL suffered at Minnesota on Wednesday. Lucas is back now, of course, but Michigan State lost the game that Lucas was injured in, the game he missed and the game in which he came back. I think the Spartans are being given too large a benefit of the doubt, as MSU lost by 18 to Wisconsin in the game in which Lucas was injured and by 12 at home to Purdue in the game in which he returned, but they move from a No. 6 to a No. 5 because of that injury. Finally, Ohio State lost three of six when Turner was injured, but is 12-3 since his return. OSU gets a bump from a No. 5 to a No. 3. It’s educated guesswork at this point.

Moving In as At-large: (none)

Moving Out as At-large: (none)

Moving In as Automatic: (none)

Moving Out as Automatic: (none)

On the Bubble: This was the toughest time I’ve had this season filling out the field. Thirty-three of the 34 at-large bids were easy to find, but the last team proved elusive. My model showed only five teams with a legitimate case — Charlotte, Cincinnati, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State and Seton Hall. Charlotte and Cincy actually rated out highest, but SDSU’s strong RPI (37) and recent play put the Aztecs in. The Bearcats continue to have an underrated profile thanks to non-conference wins over Maryland and Vanderbilt. Their four wins against RPI top-50 teams — which includes a sweep of UConn — are more than any other team under consideration. With wins over Gonzaga and Kansas out of conference, Arizona squeaked in last season despite losing five of its last six, including a first-round Pac-10 Tournament loss after a 9-9 conference season. Cincinnati could be this year’s Arizona, only with a finish that’s easier for the committee to stomach.

Atlantic 10: I’m seeing Xavier seeded much lower than No. 5 in most projections, but it’s difficult to understand why. The Musketeers are 11-2 in a strong A-10 with a recent road win against Florida. The 0-5 record against RPI top-25 teams is an eyesore, but the 9-2 record against all other top-100 teams is superb, and XU has no bad losses. By comparison, BYU has no top-25 wins but is seeded — on average — two lines higher. Xavier hosts Richmond — also 11-2 in the A-10 — for a showdown on Saturday.

Temple won ugly on Wednesday, 49-41, over Dayton to join Xavier and Richmond atop the league. The loss kept the Owls’ A-10 title hopes alive with trips to La Salle and Saint Louis on the horizon. The loss for Dayton was its third straight on the road, and the Flyers are now putting themselves in a precarious position. They host UMass and Saint Louis with a trip to Richmond sandwiched in between. They’d do well to sweep those games or will head to Atlantic City for the A-10 Tournament with work to do.

The other two A-10 teams nearest the bubble — Rhode Island and Charlotte — are coming off wins against A-10 bottom-feeders and face tougher road tests this weekend. URI heads to Saint Bonaventure and Charlotte visits GW. Consider wins for both teams necessities.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Temple (No. 5)
Xavier (No. 5)
Richmond (No. 7)
Rhode Island (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Dayton (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Charlotte (second-to-last out)
Saint Louis

ACC: While Maryland continues to show why it is the second best team in the ACC, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Clemson continue to flirt with disaster. After losing to Boston College by 20, VaTech is the most at risk of those three despite having the best conference mark at 8-5. The Hokies have played the easiest conference schedule in the ACC to date. By chance, VT was handed a schedule that saw it face the six other NCAA likelies just once each and facing the five non-NCAA teams twice each. The Selection Committee could and should factor that in if Virginia Tech doesn’t manage to finish better than 9-7 in conference. Saturday’s home matchup with Maryland will be crucial for Seth Greenberg’s team.

Clemson and Georgia Tech are in better shape because of more top-50 wins and tougher schedules, but it would benefit both to finish strong and get to nine wins in conference, though eight wins should be enough. Wake Forest and Florida State are pretty close to locks at this point if they aren’t already, and Maryland is playing for seeding as well.

The other team in need of mention is the conference’s best team, Duke, which hops on to the No. 1 seed line for the first time, in place of the Hummel-less Boilermakers. The Blue Devils would have had a very strong case regardless of what happened with Purdue, though the four losses were keeping them on the No. 2 seed line. Duke is 8-1 against teams ranked from 26-50 in the RPI, but it has just one win against a top-25 team. Purdue and Kansas State — each with 4-1 records against the RPI top 25 — are poised to jump to that No. 1 line. If the Boilermakers are able to defeat Michigan State this weekend, they are likely to jump back up regardless of what Duke does in Charlottesville.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 7)
Florida State (No. 7)
Wake Forest (No. 8)
Clemson (No. 9)
Georgia Tech (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for conference balancing)
Virginia Tech (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)

Big 12: Barring a collapse, these seven are playing for seeding, and no one else is joining the party. Kansas and Kansas State continue to win, as neither has lost since their last meeting on Jan. 30. Missouri, Texas, Baylor and Texas A&M figure to get to at least 10-6 in a strong Big 12 and achieve solid seeds with those records. One team that confuses me is Baylor. The Bears are 21-6 with three wins against the top 25 and six against the top 50, yet their average Bracket Matrix seed is a No. 6. Nothing but name recognition could put Michigan State ahead of Baylor in any bracket.

Oklahoma State stumbled in the second game of its difficult stretch, which was no surprise against the much bigger Longhorns. OSU now hosts Kansas before visiting Texas A&M. If the Cowboys can get to 9-7 in conference, they are a lock (they’re 7-6 now). If they fall to 8-8, I still think they’ll be in good shape — much like a Clemson or Georgia Tech out of the ACC — but they might want to win a game or two in the Big 12 Tournament to avoid sweaty palms on Selection Sunday.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Baylor (No. 4)
Texas (No. 4)
Missouri (No. 6)
Texas A&M (No. 7)
Oklahoma State (No. 8)

Big East: Five Big East teams continue to hop around on the top three seed lines, but it’s looking less and less likely that the league will secure a second No. 1 seed. West Virginia’s loss to UConn all but closes the door on the Mountaineers’ shot at a top seed, though Villanova will push Duke, Purdue and Kansas State should the Wildcats go up to Syracuse and win on Saturday night. Pittsburgh falls to a No. 3 after a bad loss at Notre Dame, but the Panthers shouldn’t fall further, although I’m sure they will in many projections.

UConn’s home win over West Virginia was obviously a crucial one, but that 7-8 conference record means the Huskies are not home free yet. They host Louisville on Sunday in a game that figures to put either team in very good shape. The Cardinals blew a halftime lead at home against Georgetown on Tuesday, which drops them back into the last 10 in. Marquette’s comeback and overtime victory at St. John’s was a necessity for Buzz Williams’ team. The Golden Eagles now visit Seton Hall in a game that is big for both teams, especially the Pirates. Many are ignoring Bobby Gonzalez’s bunch, but SHU has now won four of five and has three winnable games remaining. The Pirates are in need of the quality victory a win over MU would provide.

Notre Dame continues to hang around. Even without Luke Harangody, the Irish drilled Pittsburgh on Wednesday to get to 7-8 in conference. If they can come out on the other end of their brutal upcoming schedule — at Georgetown, Connecticut, at Marquette — with two wins, they will be under serious consideration.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 2)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Georgetown (No. 3)
Pittsburgh (No. 3)
Connecticut (No. 9)
Louisville (No. 10, moved to No. 9 for conference balancing; eighth-to-last in)
Marquette (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for conference balancing; sixth-to-last in)
Cincinnati (last out)
Seton Hall (fourth-to-last out)
Notre Dame (sixth-to-last out)
South Florida (13th-to-last out)

Big Ten: Illinois is not safe even after defeating Michigan in Ann Arbor in an ugly contest on Tuesday. The Illini are now 10-5 in conference, but I’m convinced they need two more wins among their last three games and the Big Ten Tournament to make the field. Illinois hosts Minnesota on Saturday before traveling to Ohio State and then hosting Wisconsin. There’s a good chance that Illinois gets either Michigan State or Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. A 1-3 finish shouldn’t be good enough. It may seem strange if indeed the Big Ten gets only four teams when all four are seeded on the top five seed lines, but there is a recent precedent. Last season, the Big East got seven teams, all seeded No. 6 or better. West Virginia was No. 6 and had a 10-8 conference record, the same as Providence, which did not make the field.

The Purdue-Minnesota game was devastating for both sides. Purdue, of course, lost Hummel for the season, and Minnesota’s defeat probably eliminates it from at-large consideration.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Ohio State (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 5)
Illinois (No. 12, moved to No. 11 seed for conference balancing; fourth-to-last in)

Mountain West: San Diego State’s hold on a bid is tenuous at best, but UNLV has slipped into the last 10 out as well. In their last five games, the Rebels have lost three times and won at home against mediocre opponents — Colorado State and Texas Christian. Lon Kruger’s club will finish the season with Air Force and Wyoming, meaning UNLV is short on chances to make a late impression. The Feb. 6 win over BYU will be more than five weeks old when the committee unveils its bracket, so UNLV would do well to get a quality win in the conference tournament.

New Mexico continues to underwhelm John Gasaway, but the Lobos also continue to do what they set out to do in each game: win. They have 12 straight victories after starting 0-2 in conference. The showdown is on Saturday in Provo where New Mexico hopes to clinch the regular-season title with a sweep of Brigham Young. New Mexico is being seeded anywhere from 2-5, and BYU is being seeded anywhere from 3-6. Saturday’s result might help clarify that.

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Brigham Young (No. 5)
UNLV (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
San Diego State (No. 13, last in)

Pac-10: After defeating Arizona, 95-71, in Berkeley on Thursday night, the Cal Bears have won five of six with all five wins coming by at least 12 points (and the loss as well). There’s still talk of Cal being left out if it loses in the Pac-10 Tournament, but with each dominant victory, the Bears are becoming harder and harder to omit. Along with it being unheard of for a major-conference regular-season champion to be left out of the field, Cal also has a very strong RPI (23) and strength of schedule (11) on its side. Not on Cal’s side are zero top-50 wins and no more chances to get one. It’s difficult to get in as an at-large without a top-50 win. A strong finish from Washington would help Cal, since that’s the Bears’ best win. Right now, in my at-large model, Cal is hanging around Marquette and Rhode Island.

Arizona State and Washington continue to be among the last 10 out, but both will have trouble adding to their lists of quality wins. ASU does have a shot at a big one when it visits Cal on Saturday, though that’s a Catch-22 for the league. A Cal loss might put the Bears in trouble for an at-large bid while vaulting ASU into the last few in. I still maintain that the Pac-10 will get two teams if Cal does not win the conference tournament, but it’s going to be close.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Arizona State (fifth-to-last out)
Washington (seventh-to-last out)

SEC: I’ve already given detailed thoughts on what I think about Mississippi State’s inclusion on some brackets, so I won’t belabor the point. Florida, on the other hand, has recovered from what at the time looked like a very damaging home loss to Xavier. With a win at Mississippi and at home to Tennessee, Florida is in good position. Still, that trip to Georgia looks scary, and finishing at home against Vandy and then at Kentucky will be difficult. Two wins in three will surely get the Gators in, but those two wins may be hard to come by.

A 2-1 finish to the conference season should be enough to lock in a No. 1 seed for Kentucky regardless of what happens at the SEC Tournament. The Wildcats have played their best basketball since losing at South Carolina, winning eight straight by an average margin of 12.5 points. The other two locks in the SEC — Vanderbilt and Tennessee — have been leaking oil of late. After being unable to hit a shot in the home loss to Kentucky, the Commodores couldn’t stop Georgia’s offense but managed to win in overtime on Thursday. With trips to Arkansas and Florida ahead, VU better get things righted or the seed could fall. Tennessee has now lost three of five after falling at Florida on Tuesday. The Vols’ offense has only broken the 1.00-PPP threshold three times in its last 12 games. Tennessee hosts Kentucky on Saturday.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 4)
Tennessee (No. 6)
Florida (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Mississippi State (eighth-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: Northern Iowa had a pretty damaging loss to previously conference-winless Evansville this week. UNI still looks like a pretty solid at-large candidate assuming the Panthers reach the Missouri Valley Tournament final.

With its 11th straight win in Hattiesburg on Wednesday, UTEP is looking more and more like a potential at-large team if the Miners don’t take the C-USA Tournament. They rate out about the same as Cal in my at-large model. Besides a home win over Butler, UAB has a pretty thin résumé, which means upcoming matchups with Memphis and UTEP will be critical for Mike Davis’ team. Memphis probably played itself out of serious at-large consideration with a 17-point loss at Houston on Wednesday.

One other mid-major to note is Utah State. The Aggies have now won 13 straight to move to 25-6 overall and 14-2 in the WAC. With an early-season 10-point win over BYU in their back pocket, they’re setting themselves up for serious at-large consideration should they fall short in the WAC Tournament.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 8)
Utah State (No. 8)
UTEP (No. 10)
UAB (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Old Dominion (No. 11)
Siena (No. 12)
Saint Mary’s (third-to-last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (ninth-to-last out)
Memphis (10th-to-last out)
William & Mary (11th-to-last out)
Wichita State (12th-to-last out)

After crunching some numbers to determine which players have had the biggest impact on their teams, I narrowed down my list to eight players whom I think deserve serious consideration. Here are some of the interesting players I eliminated when paring the list to eight: Jamine Peterson (Providence), Samardo Samuels (Louisville), Jimmy Butler (Marquette), Corey Fisher (Villanova), Tim Abromaitis (Notre Dame), Jerome Dyson (Connecticut), D.J. Kennedy (St. John’s), Brad Wanamaker (Pittsburgh), and there were others.

I used full-season data for my evaluations, although I would like to put together some conference-only data once the season is over. Here are my eight finalists in tabular form:

Let me do a little explaining. You can find most of this data on Ken Pomeroy’s site, but I did a couple of calculations that you won’t find there. The two new columns are my attempt to aggregate offensive production. Pts/100 is simply Min% x ORtg x Poss. This is basically the number of points each player is responsible per 100 team possessions, so it evaluates time spent on the floor, importance to the team’s offense and overall effectiveness. PAR is the column I used to evaluate the players offensively. PAR stand for Point Above Replacement. In other words, how many points per 100 team possessions would a team lose if that player’s minutes were replaced with a replacement-level player, which I established as having a 0.75 ORtg and 0.10 Poss%. That’s basically a player who is hardly involved at all in a team’s offense and is well below average when he does have the ball.

Despite Luke Harangody’s absence due to injury, he has been such a huge part of Notre Dame’s offense (.318 Poss%) and so effective (1.130 ORtg) that he still heads the pack. Scottie Reynolds, Dominique Jones and Jeremy Hazell all group closely together 3-5 with Lazar Hayward and Da’Sean Butler a bit behind them. Greg Monroe and Wesley Johnson bringing up the rear. Monroe is down there mainly because his ORtg (1.034) is mediocre for players on this list due to mediocre offensive rebounding numbers for a player his size and a few turnovers. Johnson is last mainly because he’s not nearly as important to his team’s offense as the other players. The Orange spread the wealth on offense better than any other team in the Big East.

Next to all those offensive columns are three defensive columns for the three primary areas we can track for individual defense: defensive rebounding, blocks and steals. I aggregated those statistical areas to try to come up with a defensive rating for the eight players. Not surprisingly, Monroe and Johnson came out on top but not that far ahead of Hayward. Jones, with his diverse defensive skill set, and Harangody with his terrific rebounding were next. Finally, Butler, Reynolds and Hazell, whose defensive impact is minimal — at least statistically — are at the bottom.

Combining those objective pieces of data with team success and maybe a few intangibles, here is my countdown of Big East Player of the Year.

8. Da’Sean Butler, West Virginia: After a hot start to conference play, Butler has cooled off with sub-par shooting performances in four of his last five games, three of those Mountaineers losses. Butler is 5-for-28 on 3-pointers during that stretch and was held to single-digits in scoring in Monday’s loss to Connecticut, the only time that has happened in conference play. Butler is still up at 36 percent on 3-point shooting for the season, and he is often the Mountaineer forced to take the difficult shot in the big spot. Beyond his shooting, Butler has improved as a distributor this season, taking advantage of the opposition’s focus on him. His assist rate is far better than anything he’d done previously, and his 1.91 assist-to-turnover ratio is a career best as a result. Butler’s defensive impact is unclear. West Virginia has one of the best defenses in the Big East, but Butler is simply a helper to the team’s elite defender, Devin Ebanks.

7. Jeremy Hazell, Seton Hall: He’s a gunner, and no one can deny that, but as far as gunners go, none in the nation is more effective than Hazell, who carries a 1.186 ORtg despite being responsible for 26.9 percent of his team’s possessions while on the floor. Only three other major-conference players — Washington’s Quincy Pondexter, Oklahoma State’s James Anderson and Reynolds — are as efficient while carrying such a heavy load (I should mention Jimmer Fredette of BYU on that list as well, though he is not playing in a major conference). While acknowledging that Hazell has attempted 9.5 3-pointers per game this season, he also sports a 52-percent conversion rate on more than seven 2-point attempts per game. Moreover, Hazell has become a better passer this year, nearly doubling his assist rate while seeing his turnover rate cut by a third. He’s an all-around offensive force. The problem is that 1) his team is just pretty good rather than great, and 2) he doesn’t make much of an impact on defense. Hazell will pick up steals but won’t block any shots and doesn’t rebound well for a 6-foot-5 player.

6. Wesley Johnson, Syracuse: It’s rare when the likely best team in a conference doesn’t have one of the top five choices for player of the year, and for that reason, expect Johnson to be near the top of actual voting. Johnson is a terrific and versatile player, able to change the game at either end of the floor. He is the only player on this list to rank in the nation’s top 500 in defensive rebounding, steal and block rates, and he should win the honor given to the Big East’s top defender. My main problem with Johnson’s candidacy is that he’s just not that important to Syracuse’s offense. Of all the players on this list, his team’s offense would suffer the least if he didn’t play, just because Syracuse is so balanced. In fact, Syracuse has won several games, especially in the second half of the conference season, in which Johnson has been either ineffective on offense or simply anonymous. NBA scouts will not be using this list to determine where to select him, as Johnson figures to be the first Big East player taken in June.

5. Luke Harangody, Notre Dame: This ranking is a bit harsh for a player who has been every bit as good as expected on offense and is a very strong defensive rebounder as well. The problem is that Harangody has now missed three full games and part of another, all in Big East play, with a knee injury. A Big East Player of the Year needs to play in almost every game, and that’s just tough luck for Luke and the Irish. Harangody has been just as good this season, maybe even a bit more efficient than last year. He’s shot the ball better all-around, adding a 36-percent 3-point shot to his arsenal. Harangody has not been quite as good on either offensive glass or as good a shot-blocker, but he will go down as one of the great offensive forces in the Big East’s history.

4. Greg Monroe, Georgetown: Because he doesn’t put up gaudy points (15.7 ppg) and rebounding numbers (9.6 ppg), many still underrate Monroe, but his impact is huge. He’s an exceptional passer, which is a great fit in John Thompson III’s offensive system. He’s had at least five assists in seven Big East games thus far. Monroe has not been quite as efficient as a shooter as his share of the load has increased. He’s seen his field-goal and free-throw percentages drop as a sophomore. Nonetheless, Monroe is a top offensive center, and he is also an impact player on defense. Monroe is the best defensive rebounder in the Big East and a terrific shot-blocker with a block rate almost identical to the more lauded Johnson. To top that off, Monroe is second on his team in steals. If he could have bumped his shooting percentages up and cut his turnovers a bit, he’d be in line to win this thing.

3. Dominique Jones, South Florida: If USF could have continued streaking through the conference, this award would have been Jones’. Only Harangody and Dyson are as involved in their teams’ offense among Big East players, but neither stays on the floor as long as Jones. Wednesday’s blowout loss at Villanova was the first time Jones sat for more than three minutes in a game since a Jan. 16 win over Rutgers. Jones is just about impossible to keep out of the paint with his ability to finish inside (52 percent on twos) and get to the line (74.9 percent on eight attempts per game). He also hits on 35 percent on his 3-pointers to keep opponents honest. Jones had the individual performance of the season with 46 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists and three steals in USF’s heart-stopping comeback win against Providence on Jan. 23. The assists are an underrated part of Jones’ game and another reason why he is a complete player. To be truly complete, though, one needs to be good on defense, and Jones is. He is a terrific defensive rebounder for a guard, grabs nearly two steals per game and even has 16 blocks. If his team was better, he’d be No. 1 on this list.

2. Scottie Reynolds, Villanova: Offensively, it’s hard to complain about anything Reynolds has done this year. He’s a huge part of his team’s offense and is nonetheless the most efficient player among these eight. Most of that efficiency is thanks to his amazing shooting — 40.7 percent on 3-pointers, a mind-boggling 55.4 percent on 2-pointers and 82.2 percent on free-throws. His 63.6 true-shooting percentage is behind just Georgetown’s Austin Freeman, Notre Dame’s Tim Abromaitis and Connecticut’s Gavin Edwards among Big East players. Only Freeman even approaches the frequency with which Reynolds shoots. If there are any complaints to be had about Reynolds’ game, it’s that he is not a great defender, although he’s one of the few Wildcats who do not foul much. Also, he’s barely present on either backboard. That’s not his job, but some players can do something approaching Reynolds’ job on offense while still grabbing some rebounds. Note: a winning performance at Syracuse could change everything.

1. Lazar Hayward, Marquette: After a tough early-season loss to Florida State, I marveled at the heavy offensive load the Marquette senior was carrying. Not much has changed since then. Only four players in the nation take a greater portion of their team’s shots when on the floor than Hayward. Despite taking so many shots, Hayward has still managed to stay efficient thanks to a 34.3 3-point percentage and an 83.5 3-point percentage. Hayward also rarely turns it over. In fact, he’s a lot like Hazell — he takes and makes a lot of shots and limits turnovers. The difference, though, is that Hayward makes a huge impact on the glass and on defense. I count 16 major-conference players in the top 100 in defensive rebounding rate, but none is as short as the 6-foot-6 Hayward. Did I mention he leads all Big East players with 30 steals in conference games? You won’t find another player not named Evan Turner who can carry such a heavy burden on offense and make such a large impact on defense. It would be nice if Hayward shot the ball a bit better than 48.6 eFG, but no one’s perfect. More importantly, despite losing four of the top six players from last year’s team, Marquette, led by Hayward — and some help from Butler’s dramatic buzzer-beaters — is in position for a fifth straight NCAA Tournament bid.