February 12, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Bracketing Challenges: This bracket came together well, but there were still a few challenges. Most notably, any of the last three teams in the field could easily be omitted. South Carolina, Texas Tech and VCU have thin cases, but I found them marginally more compelling than Mississippi, Florida, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and Louisville. If the bracket were announced today, I would not be very confident in those final three teams.
The other challenge continues to be in filling out the top four seedlines. Finding the last two No. 3 seeds was particularly difficult with the poor play of Texas and after Wisconsin’s home defeat to Illinois. Still, the full-season profiles of those two teams remains stronger than Vanderbilt, Gonzaga and the others on the No. 4 seedline. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Bruce Weber, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Cornell, Demetri McCamey, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Harvard, Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, Ivy League, Jerome Randle, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Pat Knight, Purdue, Richmond, Rick Barnes, SEC, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, South Carolina, South Florida, St. John's, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin
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February 5, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.
It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.
Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Augustus Gilchrist, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Brigham Young, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Connecticut, Cornell, Dayton, DePaul, Derrick Williams, Dominique Jones, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Leonard Hamilton, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Robert Morris, Rutgers, Scott Drew, SEC, Seton Hall, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Stan Heath, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington, Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier
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February 4, 2010 –
by Brendon
Bruce Weber’s team is underachieving this year, and, as a result, he’s been switching things up. He had the team elect new captains; he has changed the starting lineup. Since those shakeups following a loss at Northwestern two Saturdays ago, Illinois has won three straight, but victories over Penn State, Indiana and Iowa haven’t done much to stem growing concern that this is becoming a lost season for the Illini. It’s tricky to parse the numbers, but Illinois may be making some real strides to reverse one negative defensive trend that has plagued UofI this season.
Expectations: This appeared to be a “hold-water” year for Illinois in the fall. Weber had lost solid distributor and defender Chester Frazier, spot-up shooter Trent Meacham and the versatile Calvin Brock from a team that achieved a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season.
The additions of two four-star guards, D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul, as part of a nationally-ranked four-player 2009 class seemed likely to prevent much regression as Weber awaits his most acclaimed class in 2010. In 2010-11, Richardson and Paul are to be joined by three of the nation’s top prep players, including small forward Jereme Richmond. Weber will also have his top three returners entering this season — Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale — back for their senior seasons. It would appear to be a fortuitous confluence of talent in what many expect will be the season of Illinois’ re-emergence as a Big Ten power. Read More »
Posted in Big Ten
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Tagged Big Ten, Bill Cole, Bradley, Brandon Paul, Bruce Weber, Calvin Brock, Chester Frazier, Clemson, D.J. Richardson, Demetri McCamey, Evan Turner, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Jereme Richmond, Michigan State, Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Trent Meacham, Tyler Griffey, Utah, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin
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February 1, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Breakdown: Perhaps the most difficult aspect to building this bracket was finding that last No. 3 seed. Out of Purdue, Kansas State, Duke, Texas and West Virginia, it was clear that two of them would be No. 2 seeds and three would be No. 3 seeds, but there was no obvious choice to fill out that third line. Just like in the last projection, I went with New Mexico over Brigham Young and any other team — Wisconsin, Tennessee, Baylor, Temple, Ohio State, Georgia Tech — that might have had a claim.
The good thing is that none of those teams had a very strong claim at that spot. New Mexico was the choice because its five wins against top-50 teams was more than any other team that hadn’t been bracketed, except Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, which also have five. New Mexico’s record (20-3), combined with a head-to-head win over Brigham Young, a six-game winning streak and a 10th ranking in my seeding model put the Lobos over the top. I’m not sure what the Selection Committee would do if presented this scenario, but the only other teams I could see them bracketing here are BYU, who — again — has lost to New Mexico head-to-head, or Ohio State, if the Buckeyes were given a complete pass for losses suffered when Evan Turner was injured. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Baylor, Billy Donovan, Brigham Young, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Creighton, Dayton, Demetri McCamey, DePaul, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Illinois State, Indiana, Jimmy Butler, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rutgers, Sean Miller, South Carolina, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple, Tennesse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State, William & Mary, Wisconsin
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January 29, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Notes: First, automatic bids for each conference are determined by conference record with tiebreakers broken by rank in our BTI model, not by head-to-head or other conference tiebreakers. Of course, every conference except for the Ivy League determines its ultimate automatic bid with a tournament, so conference tiebreakers really don’t matter much for our purposes. Second, there is one potential regular-season rematch in the first two rounds, and that’s in the South where Kentucky and Connecticut could meet. There was already a Big East team in the other three spots where a No. 9 seed could go, and the priority is keeping teams on their true seedlines over avoiding rematches.
Breakdown: In the end, I guess all of this was just bluster. The point of this bracket projection — even in January — is to accurately determine what the Selection Committee would do if it had to select and seed the field today. With that as the overriding standard, I found myself unable to move Texas or Duke ahead of Kentucky for the last No. 1 seed. If I wanted to make a bracket of what should happen, we’d have an entirely different projection. UK is still just 13th in the BTI seeding model, but that is a seeding model based on an entire season of play and pro-rated for what’s happened so far. This is a bracket based on less than three months of play, and so sometimes we’re left with guesswork. My best guess is that Kentucky would get the nod over Duke and Texas right now. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged A.J. Ogilvy, ACC, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Monday, Big Ten, Boston College, Brigham Young, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colonial, Connecticut, Courtney Fortson, Dayton, DePaul, Duke, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia, Illinois, Ivy League, Jeffrey Taylor, Jermaine Beal, John Jenkins, Jon Leuer, Kansas, Kansas State, Ken Pomeroy, Kentucky, LaSalle, Louisville, LSU, Maryland, Massachusetts, Matt Painter, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Rick Barnes, Rick Stansbury, San Diego State, Sean Miller, SEC, Seth Greenberg, South Carolina, South Florida, St. Joseph's, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Texas, Texas A&M, Travis Ford, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Virgina Tech, Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, William & Mary, Wisconsin, Xavier
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January 22, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Breakdown: This is our first projection of the season, as I like to wait until most teams have at least four conference games under their belts. It’s not until about now that you can really get a good gauge on a team. Everything up until now is primarily guesswork. Even so, there is a lot on this bracket that will look strange come March. The question is what. The answers will be revealed over the next seven weeks. One predictions: the Colonial Athletic Association will have fewer than three teams in the field.
For a frame of reference, in our first projection last season on Jan. 25, Kentucky and Florida were No. 6 seeds, and Georgetown was a No. 7; none of those three made the NCAAs. On the other hand, the Nos. 1-5 seeds all made the NCAAs. The four teams that ended the season as No. 1 seeds were 1, 1, 2 and 3 in our first projection. Ten of the teams seeded on the first four lines of last year’s first projection ended up as top-four seeds by March. So, there is perhaps more stability than one might expect. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colonial, Connecticut, Dayton, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northeastern, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Pac-10, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, SEC, South Carolina, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, William & Mary, Wisconsin, Xavier
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January 20, 2010 –
by Brendon
It was nice to see Purdue emerge from its “freefall” on Tuesday night with an impressive performance in a win over Illinois. It wasn’t nice because I’m rooting for the Boilermakers but nice because the performances of JaJuan Johnson, Kelsey Barlow and John Hart will hopefully quiet some of the shrill voices chiming in on Purdue’s shortcomings after a three-game losing streak.
Around the college basketball world on Saturday, folks were wringing their hands about the Boilermakers’ losing streak. SI’s Seth Davis called it a freefall, the folks on ESPN questioned the Final Four pedigree of Purdue, and people on the Big Ten Network could not get through a sentence without bemoaning the effect of Lewis Jackson’s injury on the Boilermakers.
As often happens, despite all the analysis, the pundits danced around the truth while missing it. The first issue is putting too much meaning into the streak. Purdue played three strong teams, two on the road. A 1-2 record in that stretch would not have been out of the ordinary, so 0-3 shouldn’t have been cause for panic. Several famous teams of recent vintage have only been saved from the same fate by friendly scheduling. Read More »
Posted in Big Ten
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Tagged Al Nolen, Big Ten, Chris Kramer, College of Charleston, Colorado, Florida, Georgetown, Illinois, JaJuan Johnson, James Madison, Joe Mazzulla, John Hart, Kansas, Kelsey Barlow, Lewis Jackson, Matt Painter, Minnesota, North Carolina, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Robbie Hummel, Rutgers, South Carolina, St. John's, UCLA, West Virginia, Wisconsin
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January 18, 2010 –
by Brendon
Notre Dame had a tough loss on Saturday in Cincinnati. After controlling most of the first half, the Irish could never pull away from a tough Bearcats defense. Eventually, UC’s dominance of the backboards caught up to UND, and the Irish fell, 60-58. Despite Luke Harangody growing into the Big East’s version of Tyler Hansbrough over the last two seasons, he’s seen the talent erode around him, and the team success that Notre Dame experienced during Harangody’s first two seasons is proving elusive in his final two.
As a freshman, Luke Harangody and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish won 24 games, reached the Big East Tournament semifinals and the NCAA Tournament as a No. 6 seed. As a sophomore, Harangody saw his team win 25 more games, earn a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament and win a game there.
Last season, Notre Dame was a consensus top-25 team entering the season, this despite losing Rob Kurz and replacing him with no one (I suppose it was sophomore Tyrone Nash, in theory). Notre Dame disappointed, though, finishing 8-10 in conference and 18-14 overall (before the NIT, where the Irish won three times). A seven-game losing streak in January and February ruined the season. Read More »
Posted in Big East
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Tagged Ben Hansbrough, Big East, Cincinnati, DePaul, Jack Cooley, Joey Brooks, Jonathan Peoples, Kyle McAlarney, Loyola Marymount, Luke Harangody, Mike Brey, Mike Broghammer, Mike Cook, Morehead State, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Rob Kurz, Rutgers, Ryan Ayers, Scott Martin, Seton Hall, St. John's, Tim Abromaitis, Tom Knight, Ty Proffitt, Tyler Hansbrough, Tyrone Nash, USF, West Virginia, Zach Hillesland
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