Mid-Majors | BaselineStats.com: College Basketball Stats and Analysis

Bracket Junkie: Bubble squalor nine days out

March 5, 2010 – by Brendon

Notes: Ohio State was moved from Milwaukee to Providence, and Pittsburgh was moved from Providence to Milwaukee so that Brigham Young could be placed in a pod where the Cougars would be able to avoid a Sunday game. This is the first time I’ve had to move pod assignments because of Brigham Young, and I hope it’s the last. Also, in the conference bid breakdowns, I am going to put teams I consider locks for the NCAA Tournament in bold. My definition of a lock is a team that could lose out and would still be at least 98-percent likely to get in. Right now, I have 31 teams as locks plus 22 other bids accounted for by conference champions. That leaves 12 spots still up for grabs, though Oklahoma State and Louisville are just about locked in.

Bracketing Challenges: Kansas slips just past Syracuse and into the top overall seed position after defeating Kansas State on Wednesday. This is very close, however, and the top overall seed will likely come down to who goes further in their conference tournaments. Kentucky could also be in the mix if it wins the SEC Tournament and neither Kansas nor Syracuse wins its conference tournament.

I don’t see how Duke is not still a No. 1 seed. The Blue Devils have three top-25 wins, same as Kentucky; and nine top-50 wins, four more than Kentucky. Of course, Duke has three more losses than the Wildcats, but is it possible that the difference in losses can be found in the difference between Kentucky’s 41st-ranked strength of schedule and Duke’s seventh-ranked one? Yet, Duke is on the No. 2 seed line for some people, and Kentucky is firmly ensconced as a No. 1. Interesting. The Blue Devils’ grip on a top seed is not firm, and a slip-up in the conference tournament could combine with a conference tournament championship for any of a half-dozen teams to knock Duke off the line, but right now, I don’t find a compelling argument against Duke.

As a whole, I really feel comfortable with the way I’ve seeded these teams. There are some tricky seedings on lines four through seven, but — with the exception of the teams I moved up or down for conference balancing, most of the seeds “feel” right. Many of you may disagree with that assessment, and feel free to voice your differences in the comments section or via e-mail. Nine days to go until Selection Sunday!

Moving In as At-large: Memphis, Rhode Island

Moving Out as At-large: Connecticut, Dayton

Moving In as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)

Moving Out as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

On the Bubble: Though I like the seeding for this projection, the bubble is an absolute mess. Any of the last five in could reasonably be left out. The problem is finding the teams to replace them. Illinois has lost four of five and still can’t manage to find its way out of the field. Rhode Island dropped four of five before it vaulted back in with a comfortable home win over Charlotte. Memphis enters the field for the first time after a road win over UAB, but the Blazers maintain their spot thanks to a strong non-conference performance and an 11-4 record in the Conference USA. Saint Mary’s hasn’t played since Saturday, and that was more than good enough to stay in the field. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Austin Freeman, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Brigham Young, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Dayton, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Jon Leuer, Kalin Lucas, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Memphis, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, New Mexico, Northern Iowa, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Pac-10, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, SEC, Seton Hall, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, UAB, UNLV, Utah State, UTEP, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier | Comments (1)

Bracket Junkie: Plenty of posturing, no changes in at-large field

February 19, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: There were a couple of challenges I want to make note of, the first coming at the end of the No. 3 seedline. The battle here was between Vanderbilt and Baylor, who have very similar profiles. Both teams are 19-5 and have two wins against the RPI top 25. I went with the Commodores primarily because their two top-25 wins come in just three chances. Also, their conference RPI is 3. Only Kansas (1) and Duke (2) are ranked higher for play within the conference.

The other thing I wanted to address is Wake Forest. After the Demon Deacons’ loss to Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, I dropped them from a No. 5 to a No. 7, which is quite harsh. Wake ranks 23rd in my BTI seed model, which should equate to a No. 6 seed. However, Butler and Ohio State rate out on the No. 7 seedline, and I feel like both would surely be higher than that right now. So, I bumped the Bears and Buckeyes to No. 6’s at the expense of Richmond and Wake Forest. One could argue that Xavier — which is ranked 21st in the model — should have been the one to get bumped down, and I wouldn’t put up too much resistance in my rebuttal. I just didn’t go in that direction. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Arizona State, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Conference USA, Connecticut, Duke, Florida, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Memphis, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Pac-10, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rhode Island, San Diego State, SEC, Seton Hall, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Cal, St. Mary's, Texas, UAB, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Washington, Wichita State, William & Mary, Wisconsin | Comments (1)

Bracket Junkie: Plenty of bubble movement

February 15, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Note: Vanderbilt and Illinois played in the regular season. The Selection Committee tries to avoid regular-season and recent NCAA Tournament matchups in the first two rounds, but it was impossible to find Illinois another spot on the No. 12 seedline, so we’re keeping the bracket the way it is.

Bracketing Challenges: There was a lot of potential movement among the top five seedlines. With teams like Baylor and Pittsburgh picking up big wins while West Virginia and Georgetown dropping tough games, a bunch of teams met around the third seedline. New Mexico actually rated out as a No. 2 seed, but it’s hard to imagine such a low-profile mid-major being seeded so high, despite seven wins against top-50 teams. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Mid-Majors, Mississippi, Pac-10, SEC | Comments (4)

Bracket Junkie: Big 12 is back to Big Eight

February 12, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: This bracket came together well, but there were still a few challenges. Most notably, any of the last three teams in the field could easily be omitted. South Carolina, Texas Tech and VCU have thin cases, but I found them marginally more compelling than Mississippi, Florida, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and Louisville. If the bracket were announced today, I would not be very confident in those final three teams.

The other challenge continues to be in filling out the top four seedlines. Finding the last two No. 3 seeds was particularly difficult with the poor play of Texas and after Wisconsin’s home defeat to Illinois. Still, the full-season profiles of those two teams remains stronger than Vanderbilt, Gonzaga and the others on the No. 4 seedline. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Bruce Weber, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Cornell, Demetri McCamey, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Harvard, Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, Ivy League, Jerome Randle, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Pat Knight, Purdue, Richmond, Rick Barnes, SEC, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, South Carolina, South Florida, St. John's, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin | Comments (3)

Bracket Junkie: An unholy mess

February 5, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.

It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.

Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Augustus Gilchrist, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Brigham Young, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Connecticut, Cornell, Dayton, DePaul, Derrick Williams, Dominique Jones, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Leonard Hamilton, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Robert Morris, Rutgers, Scott Drew, SEC, Seton Hall, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Stan Heath, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington, Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier | Comments (3)

Slap-happy Cats escape Mason thanks to unlikely shot

November 19, 2009 – by Brendon

The Big East is still undefeated — now 35-0 — but the team picked to win the league nearly became the first to lose on Thursday afternoon. Nearly everything went wrong in the first 38 minutes for Villanova, but the final two were all right in the Wildcats’ 69-68 victory over George Mason in the Puerto Rico Tip-off.

Two freshmen, Maalik Wayns and Isaiah Armwood, hit 3-pointers in the last two possessions to bring Villanova back from a late five-point deficit with 1:42 to play. The basket was Armwood’s first of his career, and it came after he was forced into action thanks to severe foul trouble for Villanova’s frontcourt.

The fouls were the main thing that made this game a strange one.

	Poss	PPP	eFG	Turn	Reb	FTR
George Mason	70	0.97	0.436	0.200	0.242	0.574
Villanova	70	0.99	0.434	0.243	0.452	0.434

Those free-throw rates are borderline absurd. The two teams combined for 54 fouls committed. Nine players accumulated at least four fouls, including the four Villanova Wildcats who fouled out. Among those four were Antonio Pena, Taylor King and Maurice Sutton or, in other words, all the height in Villanova’s rotation since freshman Mouphtaou Yarou was sent back to Philly with a viral infection. Read More »

Posted in Big East, Game of the Night, Mid-Majors | Tagged Antonio Pena, Big East, Chris Wright, Colonial, Corey Fisher, Dante Cunningham, Dayton, Duke, Dwayne Anderson, George Mason, Isaiah Armwood, Jay Wright, Maalik Wayns, Maurice Sutton, Mid-Majors, Mike Morrison, Mouphtaou Yarou, Reggie Redding, Ryan Pearson, Shane Clark, Taylor King, Villanova | Comments (1)

MWC WIR: Utah starts with appalling performance

November 16, 2009 – by Brendon

In sum: Conference favorite Brigham Young led the way this weekend with a victory over Bradley out of the Missouri Valley. Colorado State showed well in Oregon despite running out of gas on Sunday, but Utah and Wyoming had rough losses.

Team of the week: Colorado State. When four of nine members begin play with non-Division I opponents, there aren’t many teams of the week from which to choose. So, the Rams get the nod for a pair of blowout wins followed by a respectable loss at Oregon. Picked eighth in the league, CSU took it to UC-Riverside and Winston Salem State with 28- and 17-point victories respectively. After Oregon dismantled those two opponents, the Rams’ 68-55 loss to the Ducks was a decent result.

	Poss	PPP	eFG	Turn	Reb	FTR
Colorado State	68	0.80	0.405	0.278	0.333	0.138
Oregon	68	1.00	0.500	0.219	0.379	0.283

With a third game in three days, Colorado State showed signs of fatigue in Eugene. Tim Miles basically has a seven-man rotation, and the lack of depth on the bench showed — Ernie Kent got 30 more minutes out of his bench than Miles did. CSU’s starting backcourt Adam Nigon and Dorian Green combined for 12 turnovers in a game where their team committed turnovers on 28 percent of possessions. The poor shooting, 16-for-41 (39.0 percent) on 2-pointers didn’t help either. Despite all of the poor offense on Sunday, Colorado State hung around against a Pac-10 team after two comfortable wins. Good start. Read More »

Posted in Mid-Majors, Reviews/Previews | Tagged Adam Nigon, Brigham Young, Cal State-Northridge, Colorado State, Dorian Green, Idaho, Memphis, Mid-Majors, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Nebraska, Nevada, Oregon, Patty Mills, San Diego State, Southern Illinois, St. Mary's, TCU, Tim Miles, UC-Riverside, UNLV, Utah, Winston Salem State, Wyoming | Comments (0)

Valley WIR: No results yet, but plenty of time to change that

November 16, 2009 – by Brendon

In sum: The Missouri Valley didn’t get the results it wanted on the first weekend of play, but this was more of an incomplete than a failure. Creighton was short-handed in its bid at a road win against a top Atlantic 10 team. Bradley shouldn’t have been expected to win on the road at a very good BYU team. The Braves didn’t, but they weren’t embarrassed either. Drake’s home loss to IUPUI was a disappointment but not really an upset. The Valley will have many more chances at scalps this season, including in the coming week.

Team of the week: Southern Illinois. There’s not much to choose from for this honor, but I’ll give the nod to the Salukis for a dominant win against Tennessee-Martin. UT-Martin is not a good team, but SIU’s offense was encouraging. After sporting the ninth-best offense (according to adjusted efficiency) in the Valley last season, the Salukis scored 91 points in a 91-63 win. That’s more points than they scored in any single game last season. Read More »

Posted in Mid-Majors, Reviews/Previews | Tagged Adam Emmenecker, Akron, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Big East, Brigham Young, Butler, Central Florida, Colonial, Colorado State, Creighton, DePaul, Drake, Georgia State, Indiana State, IUPUI, Keno Davis, Leonard Houston, LSU, Mid-Majors, Missouri State, Missouri Valley, Northern Iowa, SEC, Southern Illinois, Summit, Tennessee, Tennessee-Martin, UNLV | Comments (0)

« Older posts

Bracket Junkie: Bubble squalor nine days out

Bracket Junkie: Plenty of posturing, no changes in at-large field

Bracket Junkie: Plenty of bubble movement

Bracket Junkie: Big 12 is back to Big Eight

Bracket Junkie: An unholy mess

Slap-happy Cats escape Mason thanks to unlikely shot

MWC WIR: Utah starts with appalling performance

Valley WIR: No results yet, but plenty of time to change that

Featured Content

Conferences

BaselineStats.com

Picks to Click