“So the last two nights, we have had 69 shot attempts and 72 tonight,” said Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin, whose team attempted 17 more field goals and eight more free throws than Louisville. “We can rebound the ball when we get shots off.”

In the first half alone, UC had 18 offensive rebounds. Shot after shot deflected off the hands of Louisville players and either out of bounds or into the waiting arms of Bearcats. In the first 20 minutes, though, it didn’t appear that Cincy’s backboard dominance would matter a bit, since it shot an abysmal 31.3 eFG and committed seven turnovers. Meanwhile, Louisville hit 6-of-9 3-pointers to take a 41-32 lead into intermission.

In the second half, though, Louisville went cold, and the Cards eventually succumbed to Cincinnati’s irrepressible offensive rebounding.

After taking a 46-34 lead on a long jumper from Edgar Sosa with 18:38 left in the second half, UofL scored just seven points in the next 12 game minutes, a total of 19 possessions.

“I thought we forced things the first two minutes of the second half — went one-on-three, one-on four,” said Louisville head coach Rick Pitino. “They ran a couple guys out; they ran [Yancy] Gates out. When you take bad shots, that’s the easiest way to get a run-out. I thought we lost the game in the first five minutes of the second half.”

“We’re not going to win if we give up 82; they had 41 at halftime,” noted Cronin, whose defense held Louisville to just nine second-half field goals. “We have to find a way to play better defense, and Darnell [Wilks] and Ibrahima Thomas pointed out some things in the pick-and-roll defense that we changed. We were able to stop them from getting drives down the lane and contain the basketball.”

Cincinnati, just by force of chance, started to make some shots. Gates, in particular, flourished as Louisville sputtered, the hefty sophomore scoring six of his team-high 16 points over a span of four possessions.

“We felt the momentum changing,” said Gates. “Once we started to make our run, we got some big baskets and some key stops. … Energy picked up as a group, not just the five on the floor.”

Cincinnati had closed to within two with 10 minutes to play, when Louisville’s final lead of the game was lost in a rare four-point possession by Cincinnati.

Reginald Delk fouled Wilks on a dunk that Wilks converted to tie the score at 53. Wilks missed the subsequent free throw, but Jaquon Parker grabbed the rebound. He fed to Lance Stephenson, who missed a shot from close range, but Parker again got the rebound and finished himself to give Cincinnati a 55-53 lead.

Cincinnati then opened up its biggest lead of the game at 60-53 with 6:22 left when Parker grabbed Thomas’ ill-advised 3-pointer and got the putback with the foul as a bonus. The 6-foot-3 Parker, who made the bonus free throw, had seven offensive rebounds to go along with nine points, three assists and a steal.

Thomas’ wild 3-pointer was typical of Cincinnati’s shot selection throughout the game. It was almost as if the Bearcats simply wanted to get the ball on the glass so they could get it back for an easier chance. Whether that was the strategy or not, the results were successful on Wednesday.

“Cincinnati deservers a lot of credit, because we got them to take a lot of difficult shots, but they kept getting put-backs, and they won the game on offensive rebounding,” said Pitino, whose team was 13th in the Big East in defensive rebounding. “They just really took us to the woodshed on the backboard. It’s been a little bit of a weakness for us all year, and it showed against that basketball team.”

Louisville made a run at UC thanks to untimely free throw misses by Cincinnati and some huge shots by Sosa. The senior led all scorers with 28 points, a Louisville record for a Big East Tournament game.

The senior hit a 3-pointer to draw the Cards within two at 60-58 with 5:36 to play and then another huge shot from deep on the right wing to halve a six-point UC lead and make the score 64-61 with 3:20 to go.

After Cincinnati grabbed two more offensive rebounds on its next possession, Preston Knowles determined not to let the Bearcats get another shot at a board. He stripped Deonta Vaughn and fed Sosa, who scored the layup despite being fouled by Vaughn. Sosa’s free throw would have tied the score at 64 with 1:45 to play, but it missed.

Just like he did on Tuesday against Rutgers, the freshman Stephenson made huge free throws to stem the tide on Wednesday. After Parker missed 1-of-2 at the line and Cashmere Wright missed the front end of a 1-and-1, Stephenson calmly knocked down a pair to give UC a 67-63 with 29.6 to play.

Delk countered with a three from the left corner with 9.7 seconds left to draw the Cardinals within one. Vaughn was immediately fouled on the subsequent inbounds pass and made both free throws with 5.9 seconds left to open the lead back to three.

Sosa then raced down the court despite constant harassing by Vaughn, who was trying to put Sosa on the line to prevent a 3-point attempt. Instead, no foul was called, and Vaughn stripped Sosa as he went up for the game-tying effort, time expiring as the ball scuttled away.

“If you can believe it, we called timeout to foul [Sosa] at halfcourt,” said Cronin. “Deonta claims he was fouling him the whole time. I was scared he was going to finally foul him when the shot went up. I was going to be the laughingstock nationally.”

The win assures there will be no national scrutiny of the last play, which was probably more an error by the referee in not calling a foul on Vaughn rather than an error in execution or strategy by Cronin’s club.

A mix of free throws and defense completed the victory, but the story was the offensive rebounding. This was the second consecutive game in which Cincinnati dominated the offensive glass after ending Rutgers’ season in the same manner on Tuesday night.

In the span of 24 hours, the Bearcats have gone from never having won a Big East Tournament game to winning two. They also became the first team to win on both Tuesday and Wednesday, since the Big East allowed all 16 teams to participate in the tournament beginning last season. Seven previous squads had tried and failed.

If there is a team that can match the Bearcats on the offensive glass, it is their next opponent, West Virginia. The Mountaineers led the Big East in offensive rebounding percentage this season and often run out lineups composed entirely of 6-foot-6 to 6-foot-8 players.

“Just throw it at the rim and go get it,” said Cronin when asked to preview Thursday’s matchup. “Might be like the old days — just get shots off. They hurt us on the glass in the second half [of a six-point loss on Feb. 27]. … If we get outrebounded, we’ll lose tomorrow night.”

In the final for the Maui Invitational, the Bearcats will take on Gonzaga, who squeaked by Colorado and then took down Wisconsin in the semis. Disparities in free-throw shooting and rebounding could determine the outcome. Here’s a preview of what could be the Big East’s third major tournament victory of the young season.

Cincinnati is off to a 4-0 start because of its interior. The Bearcats have dominated both glasses, especially the offensive one, in the early going. Yancy Gates (15.2 percent offensive-rebounding rate), Steve Toyloy (12.9) and, surprisingly, 6-foot-3 Dion Dixon (10.1) have been terrific in getting the Bearcats second chances, and it’s a good thing, because UC is shooting at just a 48.7 percent eFG. They’ve needed the extra possessions that offensive rebounding brings.

The bad shooting is almost entirely a factor of poor outside shooting (28.7 percent on 3-pointers). Cincinnati is great at every factor impacted by interior play, and 2-point shooting is no different. Gates (59.5 2-point percentage), Rashad Bishop (68.4) and guards Dixon (62.5) and Deonta Vaughn (57.1) are all capable of getting it done inside the arc.

This is where Cincinnati’s positive offensive characteristics cease. The outside shooting has been very poor. Vaughn, a 33.8 percent shooter last season is shooting at 28 percent this season. This is not a significant difference but a reminder that the senior is not an exceptional shooter, just usually a more capable one. Freshman Lance Stephenson (3-for-13), Larry Davis (4-for-12), Cashmere Wright (3-for-11) and Dixon (2-for-11) join Vaughn as the five Bearcats who shoot the three most often. On Mick Cronin’s entire team, only Bishop (4-for-10) has a percentage one would consider adequate. Therefore, if Gonzaga can keep the Bearcats on the perimeter — and close possessions with a defensive rebound — it can limit their offensive efficiency.

For all of Cincinnati’s effectiveness inside on offense, it is quizzically poor at getting to the foul line, and herein lies one of the keys to the game. Gonzaga should have a large advantage in free throws. Cincinnati neither gets their often nor prevents its opponents from doing so, while the Bulldogs are quite the opposite. Consider this: of all the Bearcats, only Vaughn makes as many as three free throws for every eight field goals he attempts, a rate considered adequate. Five of Gonzaga’s top seven players make that many free throws per eight attempts.

Steven Gray, Elias Harris, Robert Sacre, Matt Bouldin, G.J. Vilarino — these players will put pressure on the Bearcats defense, because they all can hit shots and get to the line. This is the conundrum opponents have faced against the Bulldogs: they shoot so well as a whole (58.0 percent true-shooting percentage compared to Cincy’s 50.9) and run their sets so well that fouling can sometimes seem like the only answer. This team is the first since Adam Morrison’s final season (2005-06) that has shown such an ability to get to the line. Against a Wisconsin team that is usually loathe to foul, Sacre and Bouldin each made 7-of-7 from the line, and Gonzaga outscored its opponents by 11 points at the line in a 13-point win.

While Bouldin is the shooting star (58.5 percent eFG), Gonzaga actually spreads the ball around pretty well, as the Zags’ top four players — Bouldin, Gray, Harris, Sacre — each have usage rates between 22 and 25 percent, and all of them are efficient. Bouldin is the dual threat — from inside and out — while Gray is more effective from outside (41.7 percent on 3-pointers). Harris and the 7-foot Sacre are strong from 15 feet in. Freshman point guard Demetri Goodson is less active on the offensive end, and he has been a bit turnover-prone, though his nine-point, zero-assist performance against Wisconsin on Tuesday leaves room for optimism.

If Cincinnati can force enough missed shots — a rather obvious statement, I suppose — it should have the edge. UC’s length and athleticism help the Bearcats to be very effective in interior defense, even though Gates is the lone consistent shot-blocker. Bishop, Stephenson and Toyloy also have the length to affect shot selection. Sacre, Harris and Bouldin combine to pose the severest test UC’s interior defense has faced this season. With A.J. Ogilvy and Jeffrey Taylor, Vanderbilt was to provide that test on Monday, but those two made just 5-of-16 2-pointers, while the team made just 9-of-32 (28.1 percent).

Led by Elias (22.4 defensive-rebounding percentage) and Sacre (23.0), Gonzaga is terrific on the defensive glass, but it’s never been very good on the offensive side, as Mark Few’s teams seem more interested in preventing the easy transition bucket. When facing a team that is not going to turn it over very much or miss that many shots, it becomes imperative for UC to close out every defensive possession possible with a rebound.

I’ve listed Gonzaga’s free throws and Cincinnati’s rebounding as the games two keys, but with two teams that appear to be evenly matched, the difference usually comes in who hits more shots. Gonzaga is the better shot-making team, so it should have a modest edge assuming it’s able to get good looks against the Bearcats’ length and quickness.

Stephenson’s poor shooting helped contribute to a first-half deficit that stood at 38-30. Cincinnati had just a 37.1 percent eFG in the first half thanks primarily to 15 misses on 3-point shots in the opening 20 minutes. Mick Cronin’s team clamped down on defense in the second half, holding Prairie View to just 24 points thanks to Cincy’s superior size and talent. Yancy Gates and Steve Toyloy combined for 19 rebounds, including eight of teammates’ misses. Cincinnati has to be happy to have the victory, but it wasn’t a fortuitous start for Stephenson or for his coach, both of whom enter crucial seasons in their careers.

This quote from junior Larry Davis has to make Bearcats fans shudder (courtesy the Cincinnati Enquirer): “We didn’t get prepared for the game. We didn’t get prepared for the game. We came out sluggish. We weren’t ready. We were kind of taking the game for granted.”

Whether that’s the coach’s fault or the players’ faults, lackluster efforts have become all too common at Cincinnati. You may not remember, but there was a time last season when Cincinnati had a very good shot to make the NCAA Tournament. The Bearcats were 18-10, 8-7 in conference, with wins over UNLV, UAB, Mississippi State, Georgetown (twice), Notre Dame and West Virginia. Cincinnati’s next four games, including the first game of the Big East Tournament, would be against three teams that would not play in the postseason, plus a trip to Syracuse. Those four games would determine the Bearcats’ fate.

UC lost all four, including a 24-point loss at Syracuse, an 11-point defeat to lowly USF and a 10-point loss to DePaul in the Big East Tournament. The Blue Demons, you may recall, entered that matchup with an 0-18 record in conference. After that embarrassing loss, UC wasn’t even invited to play in the NIT.

Entering the homestretch, Cincy’s offense had shown its first improvements under Cronin, dominating the offensive glass thanks to Gates and Mike Williams. But, in the season-ending losses to Seton Hall and DePaul, the shooting just couldn’t maintain a passable proficiency, and Cincy reverted to playing brickball.

Enter Stephenson. With his strength for a guard, Stephenson was supposed to bring Cincinnati added firepower to complement Deonta Vaughn at guard and Gates down low. Stephenson’s ability to get to the rim and draw contact would help improve the Bearcats’s woeful free-throw rate (among Big East teams, only Notre Dame got to the line less often last season) and limit their dependence on the 3-pointer, which they had taken too many of last year for a team lacking many good shooters.

One game is not a decisive sample, but it’s pretty clear that Stephenson’s impact will not be immediate. He may eventually be the player we’ve been waiting for, giving Cincinnati an explosive presence on the wing that UC has lacked since James White’s departure. But, until then, expect many more nights with low-shooting percentages, mediocre offenses and far too much dependence on Deonta Vaughn. I guess some things don’t change.

Red Storm overcomes drought, stuns Hoyas: Georgetown may have escaped Villanova with a win on Saturday, but no one who watched that game would have accused the Hoyas of playing well. Still, a win is a win, and with St. John’s and DePaul upcoming, the Hoyas didn’t figure to need their best performances to get to 8-10 in conference. But St. John’s had been playing better ball of late, and the Red Storm would have nothing to lose, and SJU didn’t lose, defeating Georgetown, 59-56 in overtime.

St. John’s played Georgetown tight for a half and managed to trail by just one at the break despite at least 12 first-half turnovers. Then, the Red Storm came out and missed its first 14 second-half field-goal attempts. Jason Clark’s 3-pointer put Georgetown up 45-30 with 10:43 to play causing announcer Don Criqui to say, “That might be the dagger,” and it did indeed appear that another romp was at hand. SJU hadn’t stayed within 10 points of Georgetown in five straight meetings since the last time the Red Storm won a matchup in February 2005.

But St. John’s hit some free throws, and Paris Horne finally made the Red Storm’s first field goal of the half at the 6:50 mark. The Red Storm missed its first 14 attempts from the field, but SJU was down by just 10 at that point.

Down the stretch, Norm Roberts mixed up his defenses, often employing a 1-3-1 zone to frustrate the Hoyas. On offense, Rob Thomas hit several big shots and free throws down the stretch to force overtime. His two free throws with two seconds left tied the game and forced overtime. Thomas entered the game as just a 54-percent free-throw shooter but hit all six attempts on Tuesday.

In overtime, St. John’s overcame a dubious intentional foul call on a Malik Boothe hack of Greg Monroe to gain the lead on key shots by Horne (16 points) and D.J. Kennedy. Justin Burrell’s rebound and slam with just seconds left put St. John’s up three, and DaJuan Summers’ long three at the buzzer wasn’t close.

As stunning as Notre Dame’s fall from the top-10 to out of the NCAAs is, Georgetown’s has been even swifter. The Hoyas, unlike the Irish, actually looked top-10 good after handing UConn its first loss of the season on a Dec. 29 demolition in Hartford.

But Georgetown lost seven of eight from mid-January to mid-February, including a five-point loss at Seton Hall and a sweep by Cincinnati. While the performance in Philadelphia on Saturday rightfully got Georgetown back in the NCAA Tournament discussion, the result was a mirage. The Hoyas continued to turn the ball over at an alarming rate and are helpless on the defensive glass. It took criminally sloppy play by Scottie Reynolds and the Wildcats down the stretch for the Hoyas to escape with the win.

On Tuesday, it was more of the same. Georgetown forced 19 turnovers, but most of those were in the game’s first 30 minutes. Once St. John’s started valuing the ball, Georgetown’s defense became much less effective, even against the relatively punchless Red Storm. St. John’s had 15 offensive rebounds, grabbing 43 percent of its misses to offset the poor shooting (40 percent eFG).

On the other end of the floor, the Hoyas were even more inept on their own glass, getting just 18 percent of their misses. Forwards Monroe and Summers combined to play 60 minutes and grab just one offensive board. The Hoyas also missed seven free throws in 16 attempts, a total that is especially painful in a game decided in overtime. Georgetown scored just six points from the moment of Clark’s big three-pointer until the end of regulation.

Just like Notre Dame, many in the national media found plenty of reason to overlook Georgetown’s obvious weaknesses, but the Hoyas continually played to the level of its opposition and ended up on the receiving end of four upset losses in conference.

The fourth of those losses probably eliminated Georgetown from serious discussion for an at-large berth. I suppose a win over DePaul and a run to the Big East Tournament final would gain the Hoyas significant consideration, but even that may not be enough. Moreover, anyone who has watched Georgetown play since the Jan. 17 loss at Duke would consider a deep Big East Tournament run to be wish-casting — if Summers can hit his jumpers and Monroe can hit the glass and Chris Wright can create off the dribble and the Hoyas can hang in on the defensive glass and continue to force a lot of turnovers… Wishes, horses.

Jones plays like Wilkins in upset of Bearcats: In Tampa, Dominique Jones showed why he makes South Florida dangerous in USF’s 70-59 win over Cincinnati on Tuesday. He displayed excessive offensive efficiency in a 30-point effort. Jones’ eFG was 78.1, including 5-of-6 on threes. Jones also led the Bulls in rebounds (8), free-throws made (5) and taken (8) and assists (5). The Lake Wales, Fla., product is one the best-kept secrets in the Big East, as the sophomore is a dynamic scorer and terrific all-around performer for the woeful Bulls

USF’s ability to knock down shots was the reason why the Bulls won this game. Stan Heath’s team shot 56.1 percent eFG as a team, with folks like Justin Leemow chipping in with three treys, and forwards Gus Gilchrist (13 points on 5-of-10 shooting) and Alex Rivas (10 on 3-of-4) providing the efficiency USF needed to score 1.22 points per possessions. That is the most efficient the Bulls’ offense has been since an 80-58 win at an awful DePaul team on Jan. 20.

The defensive breakdowns couldn’t have come at a worse time for Mick Cronin’s team. At 8-8 in conference entering Tuesday’s game, UC was squarely on the bubble but had games at USF and at home against Seton Hall to try to boost the record. Instead, his team’s defense was torched for the fourth time in five games, all losses. At least the other three came against Pitt, Louisville and Syracuse. This defensive performance was against the league’s 14th-rated offense.

Cincinnati now faces a scenario where a win over Seton Hall and a run to the Big East quarters likely won’t be enough to get a bid. In a year of resurgence in the Queen City, the loss to USF is a bitter pill to swallow.

Elsewhere on the bubble: Maryland had a six-point, second-half lead at home against Wake Forest but failed to hold on a hotly contested, 65-63 defeat. A win would have put Maryland on the precipice of clinching a bid, but now the Terps will need a win at Virginia over the weekend and a first-round ACC Tournament win, likely against North Carolina State.

Oklahoma State overcame several Kansas State runs to all but knock the Wildcats out of at-large consideration. At the same time, OSU tightened up its case with a ninth Big 12 win. A win at Oklahoma this weekend or a first-round Big 12 Tournament win (the latter being more likely) should seal a bid for Travis Ford in his first season in Stillwater. The Wildcats now have to defeat Colorado on Saturday and win at least two — perhaps three — in the Big 12 Tournament to have a strong case. K-State’s RPI remains a huge hurdle. Losses to Iowa and Oregon are big reasons why it’s rightfully poor.

In Iowa City, Ohio State barely averted being Iowa’s latest victim. Jermain Davis had a layup blocked and then saw his potential game-winning 3-pointer rim out in the final seconds, as the Buckeyes held on for a 65-63 win. Evan Turner missed a late free throw on the front end of a 1-and-1 that enabled Iowa to attempt the potential winner. The miss was one of the few things Turner did wrong all night, as he scored 22 points on 10-of-17 shooting with nine assists and five rebounds. OSU can sew up a bid with a home win over Northwestern on Sunday.

In the Mountain West, New Mexico moved into a tie for the conference lead with a 77-71 win over Utah. The Lobos’ Tony Danridge had his eighth-straight double-figure scoring performance with a season-high 29 points, including 13 free throws. Utah shot lights out (66.7 eFG) from the field but couldn’t overcome 18 turnovers. The win was a must-have for Steve Alford’s team, which had several puzzling losses in pre-conference play — UTEP at home by 13, Texas Tech by 12, UCF at home, Drake and VCU on a neutral court. But, with teams falling all around them, NMU will likely be among the last eight out in the next Bracket Junkie. The Lobos finish the conference season with a game at Wyoming and will likely need that plus a couple more in the Mountain West Tournament to get an at-large bid.

Bracketing challenges: The distribution of seeds for the Big East continues to be a major hurdle for creating a balanced bracket. Here are the true seeds for the eight Big East teams in the field — 1, 2, 2, 2, 6, 6, 10, 11. That means that seven of the eight Big East teams should rightfully be placed in the bottom half of the four regions. But with only four spots, that means three teams have to move. This time, I moved two up — Villanova and Syracuse — and one down — Georgetown — at the expense of Minnesota and Dayton and to the benefit of Siena. If the Big East were to earn a ninth bid, then the job of bracketing the teams would actually become easier, because a ninth team would give me the flexibility to place one team in the same half of a region as another team from the league. Until then, though, no two teams from the same conference can be in the same group of eight.

The Bubble: There was a lot of movement on either side of the bubble but very little crossover. Georgetown, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State all stayed just in the field despite losses. All three teams were 0-2 last week and will have a tough time justifying a continuance with another loss. The schedule shifts in the favor of each team, so the three must take advantage. The Hoyas host Rutgers and the look for revenge against Cincinnati on Saturday. VaTech has the mid-week off before hosting Georgia Tech next Sunday. OSU hosts Texas Tech for what should be a brief respite before traveling to Kansas on the weekend.

On the other side, three schools are making a run at the field but are still just short. K-State knocked off Missouri and Texas last week to move to 3-4 in conference with a home date against Iowa State upcoming. Texas A&M defeated Texas Tech and Oklahoma State at home. The Aggies travel to Oklahoma before hosting Kansas State in a second straight Saturday bubble battle for Mark Turgeon’s team. Northwestern had home wins over Indiana and Wisconsin by a combined five points last week to move to 4-5 in the Big Ten. Bill Carmody’s club hosts Chicago State on Wednesday in a non-conference scuffle before traveling to Iowa for a tricky game that the Cats probably will need to get in the field.

Moving in: Penn State’s win at Michigan State makes the Nittany Lions 6-3 in conference and puts them in the field. PSU hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2001 when such names from the past as Calvin Booth, Joe Crispin and Titus Ivory led the No. 7 seed past Providence and North Carolina and into the Sweet 16. This season it’s Talor Battle, Stanley Pringle and Jamelle Cornley.

Moving in as Automatics: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

Moving out: The Nittany Lions’ entrance comes at the expense of conference foe Michigan. The Wolverines lost twice more last week, were blown out on the road both times and had a player ejected in each loss. On Saturday in West Lafayette, Ind., it was Manny Harris who got the boot after elbowing Purdue guard Chris Kramer. I thought it was a particularly harsh judgment. A foul? Yes. An intentional foul? Perhaps. An ejection? Surely not. The Wolverines collapsed soon after Harris’ exit in a second consecutive 18-point loss.

Moving out as Automatics: East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Southland)

The top four lines: The committee should and does spend a lot of time pondering who should receive the 16 No. 1, 2, 3 and 4 seeds for the tournament and in what order. The eventual champion and all four Final Four teams are likely to come from this group of 16, and proper balance of the top four seed lines gives a tournament its best shot of crowning the appropriate champion. Here are the movers and shakers on those four lines.

Moving up: North Carolina nabs the final No. 1 seed in the wake of Wake’s loss at Georgia Tech. I still have UNC lowest on that line, a step behind Duke. Marquette makes its first foray on to the No. 2 seed line with a dominant second half in Saturday’s win over Georgetown. The Golden Eagles remain unbeaten in conference with three road games awaiting, including trips to DePaul and USF this week. Gonzaga gets on the No. 4 seed line after throttling San Diego at home. As we’ll see in a second, though, it’s not so much what the Zags did to get into the top 16 but what a team did to get knocked out that mattered most.

Moving down: The most surprising result of the weekend may have come in Atlanta, where previously conference-winless Georgia Tech knocked off Wake Forest on Iman Shumpert’s buzzer-beater. It was the second straight time Wake had dropped the game immediately following a home win to UNC or Duke. Michigan State dropped another head-scratching home game, this time blowing a 13-point lead to Penn State on Sunday. The Spartans’ guards found Battle unguardable, as the sophomore lit them up for 29 points. Texas is the only team to fall from the top four seed lines after the Longhorns lost at home to Kansas State, 85-81, in overtime. University of Miami transfer Denis Clemente had 44 for the Wildcats in the upset.

This week’s conference breakdown will center around two key matchups to watch in each league.

ACC: Both of the matchups I’m featuring in the ACC take place on Wednesday night. Wake Forest travels to Miami to play the Hurricanes at 7:30 p.m. Both teams are coming off of losses, but Miami’s form is threatening to keep Frank Haith’s talented squad out of the NCAAs. Three straight defeats have Miami as the fifth-to-last team out, but nothing can vault a team back into the field as quickly as a win over one of the nation’s top clubs. The home game against Wake begins a three-game stretch that will also send the Canes to Duke and bring UNC to South Florida. For Wake’s part, Dino Gaudio’s team needs to get back on the win train if it wants to secure a No. 1 seed. With no sign of the league’s top teams until Feb. 22, this may be a good chance to make hay. Of course, it hasn’t been the ACC’s iron that’s given Wake trouble.

Later that night in Clemson, Duke faces Oliver Purnell’s Tigers at 9 p.m. The Blue Devils bounced back from the two-point loss in Winston-Salem with a 25-point win over Virginia on Sunday. Clemson has not been able to hang in its previous two games against the league’s top three teams, losing at home to Wake by 10 and at UNC by 24. If Clemson is to be considered in the same breath as those teams, it will need a win on Wednesday. A victory should move Clemson to the No. 2 seed line.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
North Carolina (No. 1)
Wake Forest (No. 2)
Clemson (No. 3)
Florida State (No. 9)
Boston College (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Miami (fifth-to-last out)
Maryland (15th-to-last out)

Big East: The Big East’s portion of Big Monday has not disappointed this season with matchups of ranked teams each week. On Monday night, the best matchup of the Big East season to date has Louisville hosting Connecticut. The Cards already knocked off one No. 1 team this season when they sent home formerly undefeated Pittsburgh a couple weeks ago. This should be UConn’s first game as a No. 1, and no team has been very secure with the top ranking. Should Louisville win and stay undefeated in conference, the Cards will have built up a pretty strong case for an eventual No. 1 seed. I like UConn’s ability to take care of the ball and neutralize Louisville’s frontcourt strength in this matchup.

Consider this Harangody’s last stand. Notre Dame travels to Cincinnati on Wednesday for a matchup of two teams clinging to NCAA Tournament dreams. The Irish have lost five straight, but this matchup is Notre Dame’s first against an unranked team since Jan. 10. With UCLA and Louisville following the game with the Bearcats, Notre Dame finds itself in a must-win situation. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is in a similar position as Notre Dame but looking at things through far rosier lenses. A win over the Irish would get Cincinnati back to .500 in conference and keep Mick Cronin’s team’s hopes for an NCAA bid in tact.

Bid Breakdown:

Connecticut (No. 1)
Pittsburgh (No. 2)
Louisville (No. 2)
Marquette (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 6, moved to No. 5 for bracket balancing)
West Virginia (No. 6)
Syracuse (No. 10, moved to No. 9 for bracket balancing, ninth-to-last in)
Georgetown (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing, fourth-to-last in)
Providence (seventh-to-last out)
Cincinnati (10th-to-last out)
Notre Dame (16th-to-last out)

Big Ten: I’m going to look to Thursday to provide the Big Ten matchups of note. The first is in Ann Arbor where the wounded Wolverines host Penn State. Michigan has lost five of six since starting the conference season 3-1, and one of those losses was a 15-point defeat at Penn State. The Wolverines find themselves in a similar position to Notre Dame, as a trip to Connecticut for a non-conference game looms on the weekend followed by a home game with Michigan State next week. In light of the upcoming schedule and the recent run of poor form, the Wolverines really need a win on Thursday. Penn State can solidify its place in the NCAA field with a win, which would be the fifth straight for Ed DeChellis’ team. This does not appear to be a favorable matchup for Michigan, but, with his team’s backs against the proverbial wall, we’ll see what Beilein comes up with to try to contain Battle and the Lions.

Later that night in Madison, another wounded team takes the floor at home. Six straight losses have sent Wisconsin from 3-0 to 3-6, and the Badgers’ NCAA hopes are now on life support. Wisconsin still has two games with Indiana as well as home games against Iowa and Michigan, so there are wins out there, but Bo Ryan’s team can ill afford to get swept by Illinois and fall to 3-7. For the Illini, who are just 1-3 on the road, a victory away from Assembly Hall would give Illinois a case for a top-four seed. Beyond a victory at a banged-up Purdue at the start of conference play, Illinois has lost on the road to Michigan, Michigan State and Minnesota. UofI, though, is the only Big Ten team without a home loss in conference.

Bid Breakdown:

Michigan State (No. 3)
Purdue (No. 4)
Minnesota (No. 5, moved to No. 6 for bracket balancing)
Illinois (No. 6)
Ohio State (No. 9)
Penn State (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Northwestern (second-to-last out)
Michigan (third-to-last out)
Wisconsin (11th-to-last out)

Big 12: The second game of tonight’s Big Monday double-header gives fans what should be an intriguing denouement after the battle in Louisville. For all of the hype surrounding Baylor entering the season, the Bears are merely 3-4 in conference and haven’t been particularly competitive in their matchups with the league’s iron. Kansas comes to Waco on Monday night still undefeated in conference but having yet to play a team considered to be in the Big 12’s first division. Baylor has a chance to prove it is in that category with a strong performance, but another loss would leave the Bears at 3-5 and in a position where they might have to scramble for an NCAA Tournament berth.

The other game to watch features a team that I would call one of my personal disappointments this season. Maybe I just overrate Texas every season, but I really thought Rick Barnes’ team was poised to make a run at a Big 12 title and maybe even a Final Four. The reality, though, is much more modest. Texas is just 15-5 overall and 4-2 in conference after Saturday’s overtime loss to K-State, and it’s the offense that has let the Longhorns down. Texas is just not a good shooting team, and A.J. Abrams’ 38 percent on his many 2-point attempts is a big reason why. Gary Johnson’s 47.9 percent eFG hasn’t helped either. Maybe it’s time to get Connor Atchley more touches. Texas hosts Missouri on Wednesday in a battle of the two teams that were recently bitten by the K-State Wildcats. The winner of this game should have an inside track at a No. 4 seed.

Bid Breakdown:

Oklahoma (No. 1)
Kansas (No. 4)
Missouri (No. 5)
Texas (No. 6)
Baylor (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Oklahoma State (No. 12, last in)
Texas A&M (last out)
Kansas State (sixth-to-last out)

Pac-10: The first Pac-10 game of note comes in a rare Wednesday encounter. Winners of five of six, USC is one of the hottest teams in the conference, and the Trojans travel to UCLA a much more confident team than they were in the teams’ Jan. 11 matchup. UCLA is playing very well also, and the winner of this game will probably be the best bet to challenge Washington for the league title. The 10:30 p.m. tip-off is in Westwood, a locale that should be to the Bruins’ advantage, but the road team has won the last three meetings. UCLA needs this game and many more between now and March to get the No. 3 or 4 seed that would enable a deep Tournament run. USC can cement its NCAA Tournament placement with another good win.

Washington travels to Berkeley on Thursday night in a key encounter between one team with its eyes set on a Pac-10 title and the hosts, who are just worried about falling out of contention for the NCAA Tournament. Cal’s three-overtime win in Seattle seems like a distant memory after losses to Stanford, Oregon State, UCLA and USC in its last five games. Washington is 5-1 since that Jan. 10 thriller, which was a turning point for both teams, just not in the way you would have thought.

Bid Breakdown:

UCLA (No. 5)
Washington (No. 5)
Arizona State (No. 8 )
California (No. 10)
Southern California (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Arizona (eighth-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky hosts Mississippi State on Tuesday in a game that is now vital to a Wildcats team suddenly at risk for the NCAAs. The Wildcats have lost two straight after it once appeared they would romp through the league. With an RPI of 68, Kentucky can’t afford another home slip-up, but Rick Stansbury’s Bulldogs are far less dangerous than South Carolina. A home loss to Ole Miss on Saturday probably wipes away whatever slim chances MSU had at the NCAAs, but a win at Kentucky could reverse the damage that loss did.

For the second game of note, let’s go to Gainesville where suddenly dangerous South Carolina looks to sweep Florida. You may remember the Gamecocks’ last-second victory on Jan. 21 — you can bet Billy Donovan has that transition defense — or lack thereof — etched into his brain. That win was the first for South Carolina that served notice to the SEC. A second win in Lexington on Saturday has put the Gamecocks in solid position for a bid, at least for now. It’s shaping up to be a terrific four-team race in the SEC East, and the Gators will try to make sure that this one turns out a bit better than their 18-point loss in Knoxville on Saturday.

Bid Breakdown:

LSU (No. 7)
South Carolina (No. 7)
Tennessee (No. 7)
Florida (No. 8 )
Kentucky (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Mississippi (19th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: If Butler is to lose a regular-season conference game this season, it will probably be this week. The Bulldogs have three road games in a six-game span, including visits to two of the Horizon League’s most dangerous foes — Wisconsin-Green Bay on Monday night and Wright State on Saturday. Should Butler win both, there will be little to stand between the Bulldogs and an undefeated conference season and the No. 3 seed that should come with that.

On Tuesday night at the Thomas and Mack Center, Steve Fisher brings his San Diego State Aztecs into Vegas to take on UNLV. Lon Kruger’s Rebels haven’t lost in their home arena all season, and that includes wins over New Mexico and BYU, but SDSU, which has already won at BYU, is dangerous enough to get it done. The Aztecs could really use this win to boost an at-large profile that — beyond the victory in Provo — is short on “wow” moments.

Bid Breakdown:

Xavier (No. 3)
Butler (No. 3)
Memphis (No. 4)
Gonzaga (No. 4)
UNLV (No. 7)
Davidson (No. 8 )
Utah State (No. 8 )
Utah (No. 9)
Dayton (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for bracket balancing)
Siena (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing)
Brigham Young (No. 12, second-to-last in)
San Diego State (fourth-to-last out)
Creighton (ninth-to-last out)
Tulsa (11th-to-last out)
Saint Mary’s (12th-to-last out)
Rhode Island (13th-to-last out)
UAB (17th-to-last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (18th-to-last out)
Illinois State (20th-to-last out)

Portions of this story were republished at SNY.tv.

(Note: We’re using our Beta version of what we’re calling the Baseline Tournament Index (BTI) to determine where a team stands. We’re really excited about its accuracy in modeling recent brackets, but we do have some adjustments to make before it’s ready for public dissemination. So, this is a first peak.)

Michigan (BTI Rank No. 36, 8th-to-last in) at Ohio State (34, 10th-to-last in): Barring unexpected changes in performance — to the good or bad — these two teams figure to hover around the bubble line for the next six weeks. Though Ohio State is just 3-4 in conference while Michigan is 4-4, Thad Matta’s Buckeyes can get a leg up on their bitter rivals with a win in Columbus, since OSU already defeated Michigan in Ann Arbor, 65-58, on Jan. 17.

The schedule is much more favorable to Ohio State than Michigan down the stretch, but that’s simply because it’s been so much harsher to the Buckeyes so far. OSU has already gotten a home-and-home with Michigan State and trips to Minnesota and Illinois out of the way. Indeed, six of the Buckeyes’ final 11 games are at home, and three of the five road games are at Iowa, Indiana and Northwestern. There are few off-nights in the Big Ten, but that schedule does set up well for OSU to get to at least 9-9, which would put the Buckeyes in good position to make the field.

As kind as the schedule will be to Ohio State, it’s just as harsh on the Wolverines. Michigan has played five of its first eight conference games at home, which means six of the last 10 are on the road. John Beilein’s team still has home-and-homes with Purdue and Minnesota and only one game left with either Iowa or Indiana, and that game’s in Iowa City. With the slate stacked against the Wolverines, a win on Wednesday is probably more essential to them, but neither team can well afford to lose.

LSU (48, 2nd-to-last out) at Tennessee (31, No. 8 seed): I stop counting “last ins” or “outs” at 12, but the Vols would be No. 13 if I went any further. The Vols fall at about a No. 8 seed and would be best advised to not drop another home game, but the team I’m really interested in examining in this game is LSU.

Trent Johnson’s team has rode Tasmin Mitchell and Marcus Thornton as well as some solid interior defense to a 15-4 record and a 3-1 mark in conference. But, as always seems to be the case with LSU — and this is something we hope Johnson remedies — the non-conference schedule was weak. In LSU’s three non-conference games against RPI top-50 teams, the Tigers went 0-3, capped by a hard-fought, 10-point defeat to Xavier on Saturday. The rest of the schedule was filled with opponents in the 200s and 300s of the RPI

So, as we’ll see with another team immediately hence, LSU is in need of a statement victory, and there are few such opportunities in the SEC. After Wednesday’s trip to Knoxville, LSU doesn’t have a chance for a head-turner until hosting Florida on Feb. 24. The Tigers could go 11-5 in conference without defeating a single top-50 team, which would put the selection committee in a predicament. A win over Tennessee — or in future matchups with Florida or Kentucky — would make it much easier for the committee to give Johnson’s team the benefit of the doubt.

Syracuse (25, No. 7 seed) at Providence (58, 9th-to-last team out): It surprised me a bit to see the Orange at just the top of the No. 7 seed line, but considering SU’s best conference win was at home to Notre Dame, maybe it shouldn’t surprise too much. The Orange is banged up right now and will not have Andy Rautins available on Wednesday after he sprained his ankle in the second half of Syracuse’s home loss to Louisville on Sunday. Freshman Mookie Jones is done for the year with an injury, and most troubling, Arinze Onuaku has a bum knee as well and is a game-time decision in Providence.

Syracuse has a non-conference profile — wins over Kansas, Florida and Memphis — that should leave it in good stead barring a complete collapse. SU is in the middle of a brutal 10-game stretch that still has six more games to go. If the Orange can split the next six, it shouldn’t have to worry about anything on Selection Sunday, but with the injuries and the recent run of poor form, that isn’t a guarantee. In that light, this game at Providence is a big one, since it’s one of the Orange’s best shots at a win between now and a trip to St. John’s on Feb. 24.

For Providence, this game is as big as it gets. The Friars need to take advantage of every winnable opportunity against a good team, because they haven’t so far. In games against RPI top-50 teams, PC — like LSU — is 0-3, losing to Baylor out of conference and to Georgetown and Marquette in league. But unlike the SEC with LSU, the Big East gives Providence has a lot more chances for signature wins. Home games against Syracuse, Villanova and Notre Dame provide the best opportunities to cash in, and PC may need all three to get an NCAA bid.

Georgetown (26, No. 7 seed) at Cincinnati (55, 7th-to-last out): This matchup in the Queen City is pretty much a duplicate of the affair in Providence — a ranked team coming off a couple of losses heads to a team looking to get out from the wrong side of the bubble.

Either way, Cincinnati needs a win to boost a conference profile whose best win is at St. John’s. The sweep at the hands of Providence really hurts the Bearcats, who entered conference play in much better shape for at-large consideration than the Friars. Wins over UNLV and UAB will help UC if the Bearcats are close, but it will probably take a 6-5 finish to get close. To get six more wins, Mick Cronin’s team will have to pull a few upsets, and a home game against a struggling Hoyas team is probably a good place to start.

With two games against Cincinnati and a home game versus Rutgers sandwiched around a trip to Marquette, Georgetown fans are probably looking at this stretch as a chance to get healthy after the ugly shooting performance in Newark on Sunday. The Hoyas’ NCAA positioning is helped by the nation’s toughest non-conference schedule, but they’ll need at least a decent conference performance to back up the play out of league to get a good seed.

Kansas (14, No. 4 seed) at Nebraska (60, 11th-to-last team out): With an RPI of 84 and three losses against teams outside the top-100, the Huskers seem an odd choice to include on this list, but a win over Kansas would shoot NU into serious contention. Nebraska already has a home win against Missouri, so another big one would do wonders for the Huskers’ national rep. Two winnable road games — Texas Tech and Colorado — follow Kansas’ visit, meaning Nebraska has a great chance to give a facelift to its RPI in the next two weeks. The Huskers last defeated Kansas in February 2004.