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Bracket Junkie: Big 12 is back to Big Eight

February 12, 2010 – by Brendon

Bracketing Challenges: This bracket came together well, but there were still a few challenges. Most notably, any of the last three teams in the field could easily be omitted. South Carolina, Texas Tech and VCU have thin cases, but I found them marginally more compelling than Mississippi, Florida, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and Louisville. If the bracket were announced today, I would not be very confident in those final three teams.

The other challenge continues to be in filling out the top four seedlines. Finding the last two No. 3 seeds was particularly difficult with the poor play of Texas and after Wisconsin’s home defeat to Illinois. Still, the full-season profiles of those two teams remains stronger than Vanderbilt, Gonzaga and the others on the No. 4 seedline. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Bruce Weber, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Cornell, Demetri McCamey, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Harvard, Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, Ivy League, Jerome Randle, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Pat Knight, Purdue, Richmond, Rick Barnes, SEC, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, South Carolina, South Florida, St. John's, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin | Comments (3)

Bracket Junkie: An unholy mess

February 5, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.

It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.

Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Augustus Gilchrist, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Brigham Young, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Connecticut, Cornell, Dayton, DePaul, Derrick Williams, Dominique Jones, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Leonard Hamilton, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Robert Morris, Rutgers, Scott Drew, SEC, Seton Hall, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Stan Heath, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington, Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier | Comments (3)

Bracket Junkie: Loving the Lobos

February 1, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Breakdown: Perhaps the most difficult aspect to building this bracket was finding that last No. 3 seed. Out of Purdue, Kansas State, Duke, Texas and West Virginia, it was clear that two of them would be No. 2 seeds and three would be No. 3 seeds, but there was no obvious choice to fill out that third line. Just like in the last projection, I went with New Mexico over Brigham Young and any other team — Wisconsin, Tennessee, Baylor, Temple, Ohio State, Georgia Tech — that might have had a claim.

The good thing is that none of those teams had a very strong claim at that spot. New Mexico was the choice because its five wins against top-50 teams was more than any other team that hadn’t been bracketed, except Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, which also have five. New Mexico’s record (20-3), combined with a head-to-head win over Brigham Young, a six-game winning streak and a 10th ranking in my seeding model put the Lobos over the top. I’m not sure what the Selection Committee would do if presented this scenario, but the only other teams I could see them bracketing here are BYU, who — again — has lost to New Mexico head-to-head, or Ohio State, if the Buckeyes were given a complete pass for losses suffered when Evan Turner was injured. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Baylor, Billy Donovan, Brigham Young, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Creighton, Dayton, Demetri McCamey, DePaul, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Illinois State, Indiana, Jimmy Butler, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rutgers, Sean Miller, South Carolina, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple, Tennesse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State, William & Mary, Wisconsin | Comments (2)

SEC teams fall in Sunday tourney finals

November 23, 2009 – by Brendon

Sunday

Sunday’s slate featured a pair of tournament championships, but the SEC teams lost in both. The better chance for a win was probably in Charleston where South Carolina took on the Miami Hurricanes. Despite committing 14 more turnovers than South Carolina, Frank Haith’s team shot the lights out to win.

	Poss	PPP	eFG	Turn	Reb	FTR
Miami	80	1.06	0.607	0.298	0.424	0.304
South Carolina	80	0.87	0.414	0.124	0.218	0.092

The big difference was in 2-point shooting where the shorter Gamecocks struggled to keep Miami away from the rim. Miami outshot South Carolina on 2-pointers, 61.5 percent to 32.4, and outscored South Carolina by 14 points on twos and 10 free throws. These are the problems a team can run into with a 6-foot-7 center.

The final in Puerto Rico was very sloppy — it seems like most games there are. Mississippi and Villanova combined for 45 turnovers, and neither shot even 45 percent eFG. The difference in this game came inside where the Wildcats had the advantage. Villanova turned five more offensive boards into 16 more second-chance points and outscored the Rebels by 18 points in the paint. Read More »

Posted in Reviews/Previews | Tagged Corey Stokes, Dayton, Frank Haith, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Miami (Fla.), Mississippi, Mouphtaou Yarou, Rutgers, Scottie Reynolds, SEC, South Carolina, Vermont, Villanova | Comments (0)

C-USA WIR: Knights pierce UMass to lift league

November 15, 2009 – by Brendon

In sum: Central Florida got the Conference USA’s season started off right with an impressive victory over UMass, but SMU missed a chance to knock off a Big East team later on Friday night. Memphis had no problems with Jackson State in the debuts of Josh Pastner and Elliott Williams. Also notable is Ben Braun and Rice going 3-0 on the weekend to match its entire win total from just two seasona ago. As a whole, the league went 13-4 across the opening weekend.

Team of the week: Central Florida. In the first game since Jermaine Taylor’s graduation, the Knights got to the line a ton and made a much higher percentage of shots than the Minutemen. That’s often a good recipe for success, and it was in the 17-point win.

	Poss	PPP	eFG	Turn	Reb	FTR
UMass	73	0.92	0.420	0.164	0.330	0.130
UCF	73	1.15	0.609	0.219	0.328	0.309

Individually, Isaac Sosa was the story. He shot 45 percent on 126 3-point attempts last season, and he hit 6-of-7 on Friday night. If we were wondering who would soak up some of the possessions that Taylor left behind, we’ve surely found part of our answer. Read More »

Posted in Mid-Majors, Reviews/Previews | Tagged Arizona, Auburn, Ben Braun, Central Florida, Conference USA, Elliott Williams, Georgia, Houston, Isaac Sosa, Jackson State, Jermaine Taylor, Josh Pastner, Kansas, Massachusetts, Matt Doherty, Memphis, Miami (Fla.), Mid-Majors, Nevada, Rice, SMU, Texas A&M, Tulane | Comments (0)

Big East WIR: Pirates, Panthers avoid embarrassing defeats

November 15, 2009 – by Brendon

In sum: It wasn’t always pretty, but the Big East emerged from the season’s first week unscathed with a 17-0 record. Seton Hall and Pittsburgh both narrowly escaped home losses on Friday night, while Providence nearly blew a 19-point lead in defeating Mercer on Sunday. All in all, it’s a good start for a league that figures to go through some growing pains in the pre-conference schedule.

Team of the week: South Florida. The opening win was a departure from the Bulls’ typical pre-conference play. For once, the offense was actually good.

	Poss	PPP	eFG	Turn	Reb	FTR
USF	63	1.06	0.55	0.21	0.26	0.32
SMU	63	0.97	0.47	0.19	0.29	0.21

The Bulls have not been a good shooting team for a while, but the difference in eFG was, basically, the margin of victory. Augustus Gilchrist’s 8-for-12, including a 3-pointer, was a big reason why the shooting efficiency was better. Chris Howard’s 6-for-6 from inside didn’t hurt either. We’ll learn a lot more about the Bulls in the week ahead. Read More »

Posted in Big East, Reviews/Previews | Tagged Alabama, Alcorn State, Arkansas, Augustus Gilchrist, Big East, Binghamton, Bobby Gonzalez, California, Chris Howard, Cincinnati, Columbia, Cornell, Dayton, DePaul, East Carolina, Eugene Harvey, George Mason, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Jeremy Hazell, Jerome Randle, Kansas State, Keon Lawrence, LaSalle, Louisville, Mercer, Miami (Fla.), Mississippi, Monmouth, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Ohio State, Penn, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Prairie View A&M, Providence, Seton Hall, South Carolina, St. Bonaventure, St. John's, St. Peter's, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, USF, Villanova, Virginia | Comments (0)

Predicting many future events in one large analysis

November 9, 2009 – by Brendon

Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:

• ACC
• Big 12
• Big East
• Big Ten
• Pac-10
• SEC
• Mid-Majors

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

ACC

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »

Posted in National Perspective | Tagged 2009-10 season preview, A.J. Ogilvy, ACC, Al Skinner, Al-Farouq Aminu, Alabama, Alonzo Gee, Andy Kennedy, Anthony Crater, Anthony Grant, Arinze Onuaku, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Augustus Gilchrist, Austin Freeman, Avery Bradley, Baylor, Ben Braun, Ben Howland, Big East, Big Ten, Bill Carmody, Bill Self, Bo Ryan, Bobby Gonzalez, Boston College, Brad Tinsley, Brandon Triche, Brigham Young, Bruce Pearl, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Carleton Scott, Cashmere Wright, Chandler Parsons, Chase Budinger, Chinemelu Elonu, Chris Johnson, Chris Warren, Chris Wright, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Conference USA, Connecticut, Cory Higgins, Courtney Fortson, Craig Brackins, Craig Moore, Craig Robinson, Creighton, Damion James, Dante Cunningham, Dar Tucker, Darryl Bryant, David Huertas, Dayton, DeJuan Blair, DeMarre Carroll, Demetri McCamey, Demontez Stitt, Denis Clemente, Deon Thompson, Deonta Vaughn, DePaul, Derek Glasser, Derrick Favors, DeShawn Sims, Devan Downey, Dexter Pittman, Doc Sadler, Dominique Jones, Duke, Dwayne Anderson, Dwight Lewis, Ed Davis, Elliott Williams, Ernie Kent, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Frank Haith, Frank Lickliter, Frank Martin, Fred Hill, Gani Lawal, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Greg Echenique, Greg McDermott, Greg Monroe, Greivis Vasquex, Herb Pope, Herb Sendek, Horizon, Howard Thompkins, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Isaiah Thomas, J.T. Tiller, JaJuan Johnson, Jake Kelly, Jamelle Cornley, James Anderson, James Harden, JaMychal Green, Jarvis Varnado, Jeff Bzdelik, Jeff Capel, Jeff Leo, Jeff Pendergraph, Jeff Peterson, Jeffrey Taylor, Jeremiah Rivers, Jermaine Beal, Jerome Dyson, Jerome Randle, Jerry Wainwright, Joe Mazulla, John Beilein, John Henson, John Jackson, John Pelphrey, John Riek, John Thompson III, John Wall, Johnny Dawkins, Jon Brockman, Jon Scheter, Jonny Flynn, Jordan Hill, Josh Owens, Jrue Holiday, Junior Cadougan, Justin Dentmon, Kalin Lucas, Kansas, Kansas State, Keaton Nankivil, Kemba Walker, Ken Bone, Kenny Boynton, Keno Davis, Kentucky, Keon Lawrence, Kevin Coble, Kevin O'Neill, Kevin Stallings, Klay Thompson, Kyle Singler, LaceDarius Dunn, Lance Stephenson, Landry Fields, Lazar Hayward, Leo Lyons, Leonard Hamilton, Lorenzo Brown, Lorenzo Romar, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, MAAC, Manny Harris, Marcus Thornton, Mark Fox, Mark Turgeon, Marquette, Marshon Brooks, Maryland, Memphis, Miami (Fla.), Michael Dunigan, Michael Snaer, Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Mike Davis, Mike Montgomery, Mike Rosario, Mike Singletary, Mikhail Torrance, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Mouphtaou Yarou, Murphy Holloway, Nebraska, Niagara, Nic Wise, Nick Calathes, Norm Roberts, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Oregon, Oregon State, Pac-10, Pat Knight, Patrick Christopher, Patrick Patterson, Paul Gause, Paul Hewitt, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Quincy Pondexter, Raymar Morgan, Renardo Sidney, Rick Barnes, Rick Jackson, Rick Stansbury, Rihards Kuksiks, Robbie Hummel, Roy Williams, Rutgers, Samardo Samuels, Scoop Jardine, Scott Drew, Scott Martin, Sean Miller, SEC, Senario Hillman, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, Sharaud Curry, Sidney Lowe, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Cal, St. John's, Stan Heath, Stanford, Stanley Pringle, Stanley Robinson, Sylvan Landesburg, Syracuse, Talor Battle, Tennessee, Terrico White, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Theo Robertson, Tim Abromaitis, Tim Floyd, Tom Crean, Toney Douglas, Tony Bennett, Travis Ford, Trevor Booker, Tubby Smith, Tulsa, Ty Abbott, Tyler Smith, Tyler Zeller, Tyrese Rice, Tyrone Nash, UCLA, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Vernon Macklin, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, WAC, Wake Forest, Washington, Washington State, Wayne Chism, Wesley Johnson, West Coast, West Virginia, Willie Warren, Wisconsin, Xavier, Zaire Taylor | Comments (3)

ACC has depth, but will anyone help out UNC come March?

November 8, 2009 – by Brendon

2008-09 in review: A conference that once dominated March has, of late, become a league with one team that dominates March while 11 other teams sit in their dorm rooms and watch. For the third straight season, North Carolina was the only ACC team to reach a regional final. Duke became the only team not named “North Carolina” to make the Sweet 16 since 2006, but the Blue Devils were brusquely dismissed by Final Four-bound Villanova. ACC teams not from Chapel Hill have just a 9-16 NCAA Tournament record in the last three tournaments.

Before continuing with the ACC negativity, I must first pay homage to the team of last season, the Tar Heels. UNC perhaps didn’t sail through the ACC season as smoothly as many assumed — in fact, Roy Williams’ team started ACC play 0-2 — but, by the time the NCAA Tournament rolled around, there was nothing stopping the Tar Heels. UNC’s offense was one of the best in recent memory, and only Oklahoma came close to slowing it down in the NCAA Tournament. Behind the inside-outside combination of Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough, and with Wayne Ellington hitting his stride — not to mention about six or seven other players who would start on any team in the country — North Carolina was hardly challenged in winning each NCAA Tournament game by at least 12.

At one point or another, three ACC teams besides UNC had the look of a top team last season, but each had their flaws revealed and saw their seasons end in embarrassing March departures. After a 16-0 start to the season, Clemson lost nine of its final 16, including a three-point loss to No. 10 seed Michigan in the first round of the NCAAs. Wake Forest also started 16-0, but the young Demon Deacons then lost five of nine, briefly righted the ship in early March, but fell in the first rounds of the ACC and NCAA tournaments, including a 15-point loss to No. 13 seed Cleveland State. Duke didn’t fall nearly as hard after its 18-1 start, though the Devils did lose four-of-six at one point. Duke was terrific in the ACC Tournament, winning the final over Florida State, and the Devils knocked off a tough Texas team to reach the Sweet 16 but fell by 23 in a wretched display of shooting in Boston.

Since the ACC expanded to 12 teams, the league has gone from the best conference in the NCAA Tournament to fifth, ahead of only the SEC among major conferences. This is how the conferences have improved or gotten worse in March since 2006, according to average NCAA Tournament Conference Score.

Conference	2000-05	2006-09	Diff
Pac-10	1.08	1.35	0.27
Big East	1.00	1.17	0.17
SEC	1.03	1.02	-0.01
Big 12	1.24	1.11	-0.14
Big Ten	1.33	1.11	-0.22
ACC	1.55	1.04	-0.51

It’s not as simple as saying that Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College have killed the ACC, but it’s part of it. While the Big East added top-20 programs in Louisville, Marquette and — they hope soon — Cincinnati, the ACC added something less valuable. Of course, Herb Sendek’s departure from Raleigh, which turned the Wolfpack program into a nightmare (15-33 in conference over the last three seasons) hasn’t helped. Four years is not a sample that will impress any scientist, but the basketball folks in the ACC have to at least worry if the league hasn’t lost its preeminence in exchange for not much gain at all on the football side. (The Pac-10’s improvement is due almost solely to Ben Howland’s turnaround in Westwood.) Read More »

Posted in ACC | Tagged 2009-10 season preview, ACC, Adrian Bowie, Al Skinner, Ben Howland, Ben McCauley, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Bobby Frasor, Boston College, Brandon Costner, Brian Asbury, Calvin Baker, Clemson, Cleveland State, Courtney Fells, Danny Green, Dave Leitao, David Wear, Derrick Favors, Dexter Strickland, Duke, Dwayne Collins, Ed Davis, Eric Hayes, Florida State, Frank Haith, Gary Williams, Georgia Tech, Glen Rice Jr., Greivis Vasquez, Jack McClinton, James Johnson, Jeff Jones, Jeff Teague, Jimmy Graham, Joe Trapani, John Henson, Jordan Williams, K.C. Rivers, Kammeon Holsey, Kevin Love, Lance Hurdle, Landon Milbourne, Leslie McDonald, Maryland, Mfon Udofia, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Mike Scott, NCAA Tournament Conference Score, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Oklahoma, Pac-10, Paul Hewitt, Roy Williams, Sammy Zeglinski, SEC, Sidney Lowe, Sylvan Landesburg, Terrence Oglesby, Texas, Toney Douglas, Tony Bennett, Travis Wear, Trevor Ferguson, Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough, Tyrese Rice, Uche Echefu, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Wayne Ellington | Comments (0)

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Bracket Junkie: Big 12 is back to Big Eight

Bracket Junkie: An unholy mess

Bracket Junkie: Loving the Lobos

SEC teams fall in Sunday tourney finals

C-USA WIR: Knights pierce UMass to lift league

Big East WIR: Pirates, Panthers avoid embarrassing defeats

Predicting many future events in one large analysis

ACC has depth, but will anyone help out UNC come March?

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