Bracket Junkie: Plenty of movement, but none from Big Blue

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Notes: First, automatic bids for each conference are determined by conference record with tiebreakers broken by rank in our BTI model, not by head-to-head or other conference tiebreakers. Of course, every conference except for the Ivy League determines its ultimate automatic bid with a tournament, so conference tiebreakers really don’t matter much for our purposes. Second, there is one potential regular-season rematch in the first two rounds, and that’s in the South where Kentucky and Connecticut could meet. There was already a Big East team in the other three spots where a No. 9 seed could go, and the priority is keeping teams on their true seedlines over avoiding rematches.

 

Breakdown: In the end, I guess all of this was just bluster. The point of this bracket projection — even in January — is to accurately determine what the Selection Committee would do if it had to select and seed the field today. With that as the overriding standard, I found myself unable to move Texas or Duke ahead of Kentucky for the last No. 1 seed. If I wanted to make a bracket of what should happen, we’d have an entirely different projection. UK is still just 13th in the BTI seeding model, but that is a seeding model based on an entire season of play and pro-rated for what’s happened so far. This is a bracket based on less than three months of play, and so sometimes we’re left with guesswork. My best guess is that Kentucky would get the nod over Duke and Texas right now. Read More »


Big East taking tumble of out conference to A-10’s benefit

Since this article came out about the Big East’s strong play out of conference this season, the league has done nearly a complete 180, and its little brother has had a lot to do with the turnabout.

 

As you may remember, the Big East was an incredible 79-3 in games against opponents outside the six major conferences entering play on Dec. 4. Since the, Big East teams are 23-8. Big East teams had three losses of this sort on each day this past weekend, and Louisville and Providence have each had two such losses since Dec. 4.

 

As a result of this stretch of poor play — which also includes a 4-7 record against other major-conference teams — the Big East’s projected RPI has fallen from .5876 to .5801. It now comes in behind the projected RPI of the Big 12.

 

If you read my this piece, you’ll know about the link between a conference’s RPI and the percentage of the league that makes the NCAA Tournament. At the time of that piece, the Big East actually had an RPI that projected 10 bids. Although 10 was always unlikely, it still seemed that this would be the year that the league finally broke through the eight-bid barrier. Now, though, the mean projection of bids has dropped from 10.1 to 9.1, and 8.3 bids is within one standard deviation of the mean. Read More »


Atlantic 10 WIR: Wright, Dayton give league a statement win

In sum: Dayton did what it needed to do on Saturday. After falling behind early, Chris Wright led the Flyers to victory over Creighton in a crucial early-season matchup for the Flyers and their conference. Phil Martelli got his St. Joseph’s Hawks off on a positive start with an overtime victory over Philly foe Drexel. UMass had an ugly showing in Orlando, losing to UCF by 17. Meanwhile, Fordham is stretching the definition of mid-major after a pair of opening-weekend losses.

 

Team of the week: Dayton. On Friday, I openly wondered if Dayton’s offense would be good enough for the Flyers to become an elite team, rather than just a very solid top-40 team. Early returns are propitious. Last season, only two NCAA Tournament teams — Cleveland State and Morgan State — had worse team eFGs than Brian Gregory’s club, and Dayton was also poor at taking care of the ball, but both of those numbers turned around on Saturday.

 

Poss PPP eFG Turn Reb FTR
Creighton 73 1.10 0.552 0.178 0.254 0.276
Dayton 73 1.23 0.558 0.123 0.364 0.188

 

There’s a caveat. Creighton is not a very good defensive team, ranking 113th in the nation in defensive efficiency last season. It is strange, though, that the two defensive areas where Creighton is most proficient — forcing turnovers and holding opposing shooters to low percentages — were where Dayton flourished. The Bluejays were primarily a good 3-point defense team last year, and they did hold Dayton to just 33.3 percent. On the other hand, the Flyers still made nine 3-pointers and 59.5 percent of 2-pointers. Chris Wright shined with 26 points on 83.3 percent eFG. Read More »


C-USA WIR: Knights pierce UMass to lift league

In sum: Central Florida got the Conference USA’s season started off right with an impressive victory over UMass, but SMU missed a chance to knock off a Big East team later on Friday night. Memphis had no problems with Jackson State in the debuts of Josh Pastner and Elliott Williams. Also notable is Ben Braun and Rice going 3-0 on the weekend to match its entire win total from just two seasona ago. As a whole, the league went 13-4 across the opening weekend.

 

Team of the week: Central Florida. In the first game since Jermaine Taylor’s graduation, the Knights got to the line a ton and made a much higher percentage of shots than the Minutemen. That’s often a good recipe for success, and it was in the 17-point win.

 

Poss PPP eFG Turn Reb FTR
UMass 73 0.92 0.420 0.164 0.330 0.130
UCF 73 1.15 0.609 0.219 0.328 0.309

 

Individually, Isaac Sosa was the story. He shot 45 percent on 126 3-point attempts last season, and he hit 6-of-7 on Friday night. If we were wondering who would soak up some of the possessions that Taylor left behind, we’ve surely found part of our answer. Read More »


UMass, USF look for opening success in C-USA arenas

The season’s first weekend of games gives us an underwhelming slate, but there are still a few games you may want to keep your eye on, even if that just means reloading the online box score a few times. I’ll be giving you a couple of games of note for each night this weekend, starting with Friday.

 

Massachusetts at Central Florida (7 p.m. ET): A pair of middling mid-majors go at it in Orlando on Friday night. For UMass, it’s finally time to put a terrible 2008-09 season in the rearview mirror. Last winter was nothing short of a disaster for a Minuteman team coming off of a 25-win season and returning an all-conference backcourt. What UMass did not return, though, was its coach, Travis Ford, who left for Oklahoma State. Folks in Amherst expected Ford to take UMass back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1998, but instead, he was helping those in Stillwater end a four-year drought. Derek Kellogg came in with an entirely new system, and the Minuteman never quite made the adjustment. A schizophrenic team, UMass started 1-6, later defeated Kansas, Dayton, Temple and Rhode Island, but still finished just 12-18. Read More »


Transfer Lawrence does Gonzo no favors

There’s some bad news for my pick to surprise in the Big East: Seton Hall transfer guard Keon Lawrence is in trouble with the law and, reportedly, suspended indefinitely. It’s impossible to speculate how long Lawrence will be out, but it’s instructive to look at the potential impact of his absence.

 

First, Seton Hall can much more afford to lose Lawrence, a guard, then, say, Herb Pope, a forward. With Eugene Harvey, Jamel Jackson and Jordan Theodore — along with Jeremy Hazell on the wing — Seton Hall has some depth in the backcourt. At Missouri, Lawrence was primarily a good perimeter shooter who could nab a steal, and while Bobby Gonzalez could certainly use his scoring punch, his loss shouldn’t be crippling.

 

Second, it does seem like Gonzo is fated to never have depth, as he’s struggled with short rotations during his tenure, and, now that he thought he had some depth in the backcourt, this happens. Without Lawrence, the Pirates will be very thin again.

 

Third, if Lawrence does return at some point, then he may miss only the non-conference slate. Seton Hall does have a very friendly non-conference schedule. Here are the tricky games:

 

at Cornell (Nov. 20)
UMass (Dec. 7)
Temple (Dec. 19)

 

The conference schedule starts off with West Virginia and Syracuse at home before one last non-conference game — and the toughest one — vs. Virginia Tech in Cancun on Jan. 2. Looking further, it is a brutal start to the conference schedule for SHU. After returning from Cancun, the Pirates travel to Connecticut, then host Cincinnati before heading to Georgetown and hosting Louisville.

 

It’s unclear now whether Lawrence will ever wear a Seton Hall jersey in a game that matters, and he has only his poor decision-making to blame. As it is, he’s put his team in a difficult spot but not one that the Pirates cannot overcome, even if Lawrence doesn’t see the floor for a single minute this winter.


What about Creighton?; or vagaries of the committee system

Of the 65 teams that ESPN’s Joe Lunardi listed on his most recent bracket projection and the eight teams he listed as the closest teams to the field who are not in the field, I found the most glaring omission to be Creighton.

 

After the Bluejays’ 89-84 win over Evansville on Tuesday night, Dana Altman’s team has won seven straight to move to 22-6 overall and 12-4 in conference. If Creighton wins its last four conference games and advances to the Missouri Valley title game before losing, the Bluejays will sit at 27-7 with a 14-4 conference mark. Will that be enough to get them in? None of those subsequent wins would be against a team currently in the RPI top 50, so is it possible for the Bluejays to turn any committee members’ heads? Read More »


Flyers win at Duquesne, try to put last year’s collapse in the past

While the best team in the league resides in Cincinnati, the biggest results in the Atlantic 10 this weekend came in Pittsburgh and Amherst. Dayton knocked Duquesne off of the list of conference unbeatens with a nine-point win on Saturday. The Flyers overcame 23 turnovers with great shooting (65 percent eFG). Dayton had a balanced attack with five players in double figures in a 78-69 win. On Saturday evening in Amherst, UMass took out Temple in a closely-fought battle. The Minuteman had seven more free throws and hit 11-of-23 3-pointers to overcome Dionte Chrismas’ 26 points and nine rebounds. In no surprise, Ricky Harris and Chris Lowe led the way. Read More »