Danger! High Voltage – 2009 Upset Specials

In my East and South regional previews, I noted that I considered Wisconsin the bracket-buster in that section of the bracket. I did this a bit tongue-in-cheek as bracket-busters tend to be teams from small conferences and combine very low national exposure with double-digit seeds. I went back and researched all the non-power-conference teams seeded No. 12 or worse that won in the last five years to see if I could glean any insight into what characteristics, if any, these bracket-busters or the teams they defeeated had in common.
The nine major upsets were as follows:
2008 – No. 13 Siena over No. 4 Vanderbilt
2008 – No. 13 San Diego over No. 4 UConn
2006 – No. 14 Northwestern State over No. 3 Iowa (not the Northwestern Wildcats as was the call)
2006 – No. 13 Bradley over No. 4 Kansas
2005 – No. 14 Bucknell over No. 3 Kansas
2005 – No. 13 Vermont over No. 4 Syracuse
2005 – No. 12 UW Milwaukee over No. 5 Alabama
2004 – No. 12 Manhattan over No. 5 Florida
2004 – No. 12 Pacific over No. 5 Providence Read More »


South: Harden, Herb ready for long run; Heels in way

Welcome to your 2009 March Madness region of contrasting styles. Get ready for some fireworks and several battles for which team can control the tempo. Six of the top seven seeds have elite offenses. In fact they comprise half of the top-12 most efficient offenses in the country. Just for good measure, you’ve also got the two teams in the tournament that have the largest discrepancy between their horrific offense and lock down defense.
How fast should we go? Consider these Second Round matchups that all have a good chance of occurring with their national rank in possessions-per-game in parenthesis:
North Carolina (7) vs. Butler (286)
Gonzaga (88) vs. Illinois (283)
Syracuse (32) vs. Arizona State (333)
Oklahoma (94) vs. Michigan (267)
Tempo-free statistics help us understand these teams on a comparable level, but with such large gaps between the fast and the slow it will be interesting to see if any teams get thrown off its game. UNC’s secondary break tends to move at express speed no matter who the opponent is, so it’s safe to say that the other team is going to have to make an adjustment if they aren’t used to the pace. The looming Syracuse vs. Arizona State matchup is the most interesting out of these, and pits the two teams most equal in talent and ability to win. Read More »