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Bracket Junkie: Loving the Lobos

February 1, 2010 – by Brendon

Breakdown: Perhaps the most difficult aspect to building this bracket was finding that last No. 3 seed. Out of Purdue, Kansas State, Duke, Texas and West Virginia, it was clear that two of them would be No. 2 seeds and three would be No. 3 seeds, but there was no obvious choice to fill out that third line. Just like in the last projection, I went with New Mexico over Brigham Young and any other team — Wisconsin, Tennessee, Baylor, Temple, Ohio State, Georgia Tech — that might have had a claim.

The good thing is that none of those teams had a very strong claim at that spot. New Mexico was the choice because its five wins against top-50 teams was more than any other team that hadn’t been bracketed, except Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, which also have five. New Mexico’s record (20-3), combined with a head-to-head win over Brigham Young, a six-game winning streak and a 10th ranking in my seeding model put the Lobos over the top. I’m not sure what the Selection Committee would do if presented this scenario, but the only other teams I could see them bracketing here are BYU, who — again — has lost to New Mexico head-to-head, or Ohio State, if the Buckeyes were given a complete pass for losses suffered when Evan Turner was injured. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Baylor, Billy Donovan, Brigham Young, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Creighton, Dayton, Demetri McCamey, DePaul, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Illinois State, Indiana, Jimmy Butler, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rutgers, Sean Miller, South Carolina, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple, Tennesse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State, William & Mary, Wisconsin | Comments (2)

Bracket Junkie: Plenty of movement, but none from Big Blue

January 29, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Notes: First, automatic bids for each conference are determined by conference record with tiebreakers broken by rank in our BTI model, not by head-to-head or other conference tiebreakers. Of course, every conference except for the Ivy League determines its ultimate automatic bid with a tournament, so conference tiebreakers really don’t matter much for our purposes. Second, there is one potential regular-season rematch in the first two rounds, and that’s in the South where Kentucky and Connecticut could meet. There was already a Big East team in the other three spots where a No. 9 seed could go, and the priority is keeping teams on their true seedlines over avoiding rematches.

Breakdown: In the end, I guess all of this was just bluster. The point of this bracket projection — even in January — is to accurately determine what the Selection Committee would do if it had to select and seed the field today. With that as the overriding standard, I found myself unable to move Texas or Duke ahead of Kentucky for the last No. 1 seed. If I wanted to make a bracket of what should happen, we’d have an entirely different projection. UK is still just 13th in the BTI seeding model, but that is a seeding model based on an entire season of play and pro-rated for what’s happened so far. This is a bracket based on less than three months of play, and so sometimes we’re left with guesswork. My best guess is that Kentucky would get the nod over Duke and Texas right now. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged A.J. Ogilvy, ACC, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Monday, Big Ten, Boston College, Brigham Young, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colonial, Connecticut, Courtney Fortson, Dayton, DePaul, Duke, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia, Illinois, Ivy League, Jeffrey Taylor, Jermaine Beal, John Jenkins, Jon Leuer, Kansas, Kansas State, Ken Pomeroy, Kentucky, LaSalle, Louisville, LSU, Maryland, Massachusetts, Matt Painter, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Rick Barnes, Rick Stansbury, San Diego State, Sean Miller, SEC, Seth Greenberg, South Carolina, South Florida, St. Joseph's, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Texas, Texas A&M, Travis Ford, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Virgina Tech, Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, William & Mary, Wisconsin, Xavier | Comments (1)

Undermanned Stanford struggling for answers beyond Fields

November 19, 2009 – by Brendon

I spent some time in Monday’s Pac-10 Week in Review detailing Oregon State’s slow start last weekend in Lubbock, Texas, but the folks in Corvallis have some company in woe 600 miles to the south. With three starters gone and another injured from his first team in Palo Alto, Johnny Dawkins’ Cardinal has started 1-2 after a two-point loss to Oral Roberts on Wednesday night.

Stanford started the season with a difficult roadtrip to San Diego on Friday, where the Cardinal lost, 77-64. After returning home with a 70-53 win over Cal Poly, Dawkins’ men lost, 83-81, to perennial Summit League contender Oral Roberts. Considering what Stanford lost, this start was not unexpected, but Cardinal fans had hoped for better, even in a transitional season.

To understand the slow start, let’s gain some perspective. The Cardinal was built to win last season. Even after Robin and Brook Lopez went pro in the wake of Stanford’s Sweet 16 run and Trent Johnson’s departure to LSU, Stanford still returned three starters plus emerging Landry Fields. A 10-0 start against a mediocre non-conference disintegrated thanks to a 6-12 Pac-10 record. This was a team with fringe NCAA Tournament talent that wasn’t in the discussion in March.

From that team, guards Anthony Goods and Mitch Johnson graduated as did forward Lawrence Hill and reserve guard Kenny Brown. Big forward Josh Owens was supposed to return alongside Fields, but he remains out with an undisclosed medical condition. Owens hasn’t been cleared for practice, and it’s unclear whether he will play at all this season. Read More »

Posted in Pac-10 | Tagged Andrew Zimmermann, Anthony Brown, Anthony Goods, Brook Lopez, Cal Poly, Central Florida, Davidson, Drew Shiller, Dwight Powell, Foothill College, Jack Trotter, Jarrett Mann, Jeremy Green, Jermaine Taylor, Johnny Dawkins, Josh Owens, Kenny Brown, Landry Fields, Lester Hudson, LSU, Mitch Johnson, Oral Roberts, Oregon State, Pac-10, Robin Lopez, San Diego, Santa Clara, Sisyphus, Stanford, Stephen Curry, Tennessee-Martin, Trent Johnson | Comments (0)

Valley WIR: No results yet, but plenty of time to change that

November 16, 2009 – by Brendon

In sum: The Missouri Valley didn’t get the results it wanted on the first weekend of play, but this was more of an incomplete than a failure. Creighton was short-handed in its bid at a road win against a top Atlantic 10 team. Bradley shouldn’t have been expected to win on the road at a very good BYU team. The Braves didn’t, but they weren’t embarrassed either. Drake’s home loss to IUPUI was a disappointment but not really an upset. The Valley will have many more chances at scalps this season, including in the coming week.

Team of the week: Southern Illinois. There’s not much to choose from for this honor, but I’ll give the nod to the Salukis for a dominant win against Tennessee-Martin. UT-Martin is not a good team, but SIU’s offense was encouraging. After sporting the ninth-best offense (according to adjusted efficiency) in the Valley last season, the Salukis scored 91 points in a 91-63 win. That’s more points than they scored in any single game last season. Read More »

Posted in Mid-Majors, Reviews/Previews | Tagged Adam Emmenecker, Akron, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Big East, Brigham Young, Butler, Central Florida, Colonial, Colorado State, Creighton, DePaul, Drake, Georgia State, Indiana State, IUPUI, Keno Davis, Leonard Houston, LSU, Mid-Majors, Missouri State, Missouri Valley, Northern Iowa, SEC, Southern Illinois, Summit, Tennessee, Tennessee-Martin, UNLV | Comments (0)

Predicting many future events in one large analysis

November 9, 2009 – by Brendon

Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:

• ACC
• Big 12
• Big East
• Big Ten
• Pac-10
• SEC
• Mid-Majors

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

ACC

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »

Posted in National Perspective | Tagged 2009-10 season preview, A.J. Ogilvy, ACC, Al Skinner, Al-Farouq Aminu, Alabama, Alonzo Gee, Andy Kennedy, Anthony Crater, Anthony Grant, Arinze Onuaku, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Augustus Gilchrist, Austin Freeman, Avery Bradley, Baylor, Ben Braun, Ben Howland, Big East, Big Ten, Bill Carmody, Bill Self, Bo Ryan, Bobby Gonzalez, Boston College, Brad Tinsley, Brandon Triche, Brigham Young, Bruce Pearl, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Carleton Scott, Cashmere Wright, Chandler Parsons, Chase Budinger, Chinemelu Elonu, Chris Johnson, Chris Warren, Chris Wright, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Conference USA, Connecticut, Cory Higgins, Courtney Fortson, Craig Brackins, Craig Moore, Craig Robinson, Creighton, Damion James, Dante Cunningham, Dar Tucker, Darryl Bryant, David Huertas, Dayton, DeJuan Blair, DeMarre Carroll, Demetri McCamey, Demontez Stitt, Denis Clemente, Deon Thompson, Deonta Vaughn, DePaul, Derek Glasser, Derrick Favors, DeShawn Sims, Devan Downey, Dexter Pittman, Doc Sadler, Dominique Jones, Duke, Dwayne Anderson, Dwight Lewis, Ed Davis, Elliott Williams, Ernie Kent, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Frank Haith, Frank Lickliter, Frank Martin, Fred Hill, Gani Lawal, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Greg Echenique, Greg McDermott, Greg Monroe, Greivis Vasquex, Herb Pope, Herb Sendek, Horizon, Howard Thompkins, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Isaiah Thomas, J.T. Tiller, JaJuan Johnson, Jake Kelly, Jamelle Cornley, James Anderson, James Harden, JaMychal Green, Jarvis Varnado, Jeff Bzdelik, Jeff Capel, Jeff Leo, Jeff Pendergraph, Jeff Peterson, Jeffrey Taylor, Jeremiah Rivers, Jermaine Beal, Jerome Dyson, Jerome Randle, Jerry Wainwright, Joe Mazulla, John Beilein, John Henson, John Jackson, John Pelphrey, John Riek, John Thompson III, John Wall, Johnny Dawkins, Jon Brockman, Jon Scheter, Jonny Flynn, Jordan Hill, Josh Owens, Jrue Holiday, Junior Cadougan, Justin Dentmon, Kalin Lucas, Kansas, Kansas State, Keaton Nankivil, Kemba Walker, Ken Bone, Kenny Boynton, Keno Davis, Kentucky, Keon Lawrence, Kevin Coble, Kevin O'Neill, Kevin Stallings, Klay Thompson, Kyle Singler, LaceDarius Dunn, Lance Stephenson, Landry Fields, Lazar Hayward, Leo Lyons, Leonard Hamilton, Lorenzo Brown, Lorenzo Romar, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, MAAC, Manny Harris, Marcus Thornton, Mark Fox, Mark Turgeon, Marquette, Marshon Brooks, Maryland, Memphis, Miami (Fla.), Michael Dunigan, Michael Snaer, Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Mike Davis, Mike Montgomery, Mike Rosario, Mike Singletary, Mikhail Torrance, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Mouphtaou Yarou, Murphy Holloway, Nebraska, Niagara, Nic Wise, Nick Calathes, Norm Roberts, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Oregon, Oregon State, Pac-10, Pat Knight, Patrick Christopher, Patrick Patterson, Paul Gause, Paul Hewitt, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Quincy Pondexter, Raymar Morgan, Renardo Sidney, Rick Barnes, Rick Jackson, Rick Stansbury, Rihards Kuksiks, Robbie Hummel, Roy Williams, Rutgers, Samardo Samuels, Scoop Jardine, Scott Drew, Scott Martin, Sean Miller, SEC, Senario Hillman, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, Sharaud Curry, Sidney Lowe, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Cal, St. John's, Stan Heath, Stanford, Stanley Pringle, Stanley Robinson, Sylvan Landesburg, Syracuse, Talor Battle, Tennessee, Terrico White, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Theo Robertson, Tim Abromaitis, Tim Floyd, Tom Crean, Toney Douglas, Tony Bennett, Travis Ford, Trevor Booker, Tubby Smith, Tulsa, Ty Abbott, Tyler Smith, Tyler Zeller, Tyrese Rice, Tyrone Nash, UCLA, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Vernon Macklin, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, WAC, Wake Forest, Washington, Washington State, Wayne Chism, Wesley Johnson, West Coast, West Virginia, Willie Warren, Wisconsin, Xavier, Zaire Taylor | Comments (3)

SEC ready to rise again after ugly season

November 4, 2009 – by Brendon

2008-09 in review: It’s not a stretch to write that the SEC experienced the worst season of any major conference this decade with its showing last winter. The league played such a weak non-conference schedule and played so poorly out of conference that four 20-win teams didn’t get a bid to the NCAA Tournament — Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, Auburn — and no one really complained. In mid-February, the first three of those teams looked like they had a pretty good shot at dancing, but Florida finished 2-4, Kentucky finished 1-5, and South Carolina finished 3-4. Those four teams combined for just six wins in 23 games against top-50 teams.

If it wasn’t for Mississippi State’s — umm, not sure “stirring” is the right word — successful run to the SEC title, the SEC would have gotten just two teams into the NCAAs. Even with the third bid, not a single SEC team got a seed better than No. 8, and none were left standing once North Carolina pulled away from LSU on the first Saturday of the tournament. The SEC’s NCAA Tournament Conference Score of 0.33 was the worst of any major conference this decade.

What shouldn’t be lost in all of the negativity is the bounceback from LSU. In his first season as head coach, Trent Johnson leveraged Tasmin Mitchell and Marcus Thornton into the Tigers’ second SEC West title in four seasons. The Tigers have won 14, 5, 6 and 13 conference games in the last four seasons — you gotta love consistency. Read More »

Posted in SEC | Tagged 2009-10 season preview, Alabama, Alex Tyus, Alonzo Gee, Anthony Grant, Arkansas, Auburn, Billy Gillispie, Brendan Knox, Brian Williams, Bruce Pearl, Chris Johnson, Daniel Orton, Darnell Dodson, David Huertas, DeMarcus Cousins, Dennis Felton, DeWayne Reed, Dominique Archie, Eric Bledsoe, Florida, Frankie Sullivan, Garrett Temple, Georgia, J.P. Prince, Jeff Lebo, Jodie Meeks, John Calipari, John Jenkins, John Wall, Jon Hood, Kenny Boynton, Kentucky, Kevin Stallings, Korvotney Barber, LSU, Lucas Hargrove, Mark Fox, Mark Gottfried, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Murphy Holloway, NCAA Tournament Conference Score, Nick Calathes, Patrick Patterson, Quantez Robertson, Rasheem Barrett, Renardo Sidney, Rick Stansbury, SEC, South Carolina, Tasmin Mitchell, Tay Waller, Tennessee, Trent Johnson, Tyler Smith, Tyreke Evans, Vanderbilt, Wayne Chism, Zam Frederick | Comments (0)

South: Harden, Herb ready for long run; Heels in way

March 18, 2009 – by Lukas

Welcome to your 2009 March Madness region of contrasting styles. Get ready for some fireworks and several battles for which team can control the tempo. Six of the top seven seeds have elite offenses. In fact they comprise half of the top-12 most efficient offenses in the country. Just for good measure, you’ve also got the two teams in the tournament that have the largest discrepancy between their horrific offense and lock down defense.
How fast should we go? Consider these Second Round matchups that all have a good chance of occurring with their national rank in possessions-per-game in parenthesis:
North Carolina (7) vs. Butler (286)
Gonzaga (88) vs. Illinois (283)
Syracuse (32) vs. Arizona State (333)
Oklahoma (94) vs. Michigan (267)
Tempo-free statistics help us understand these teams on a comparable level, but with such large gaps between the fast and the slow it will be interesting to see if any teams get thrown off its game. UNC’s secondary break tends to move at express speed no matter who the opponent is, so it’s safe to say that the other team is going to have to make an adjustment if they aren’t used to the pace. The looming Syracuse vs. Arizona State matchup is the most interesting out of these, and pits the two teams most equal in talent and ability to win. Read More »

Posted in National Perspective, Reviews/Previews | Tagged Akron, Arizona State, Butler, Clemson, Gonzaga, Illinois, James Harden, LSU, March, Michigan, Morgan State, NCAA Tournament, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Radford, South Regional, Stephen F. Austin, Syracuse, Temple, Western Kentucky | Comments (2)

Bracket Junkie: Can the Big Ten really get eight? Surely you jest

February 20, 2009 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing challenges: After spending almost the entirety of Monday’s bracket breakdown on the bubble teams, I find the situation even more muddled for this projection. For instance, from the Big Ten, Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State each have résumés that are, on balance, good enough to get in right now. The problem is that I really don’t think that the committee would select eight of 11 teams from the Big Ten. So, if my goal is to project what the committee would do, then I need to eliminate one of those teams. Minnesota is the odd team out, because Tubby Smith’s team is playing the worst, has the same conference record as Michigan and just got blown out by the Wolverines. Those two teams will get together again in their last regular-season game in Minneapolis, so nothing is close to being decided yet. Penn State’s win at Illinois on Wednesday may have been ugly, but it is now a beautiful element of a résumé that also includes a road win at Michigan State and an 8-6 conference record. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Arizona State, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Cincinnati, Clemson, Connecticut, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Georgia, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Memphis, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Penn State, Providence, San Diego State, SEC, Siena, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech | Comments (12)

« Older posts

Bracket Junkie: Loving the Lobos

Bracket Junkie: Plenty of movement, but none from Big Blue

Undermanned Stanford struggling for answers beyond Fields

Valley WIR: No results yet, but plenty of time to change that

Predicting many future events in one large analysis

SEC ready to rise again after ugly season

South: Harden, Herb ready for long run; Heels in way

Bracket Junkie: Can the Big Ten really get eight? Surely you jest

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