Writing nice things about two Pac-10 teams

After two years in which the best Pac-10 players were also the best players in the nation, everyone knows the struggles the league has suffered this season. There’s no reason to post the litany of embarrassments the Pac-10 has suffered this season, as the conference has become a national punchline. Lost, though, in all of the giggles and putdowns are the California Bears.

 

Mike Montgomery’s team completed a home sweep of the Washington schools with a 16-point win over Washington State on Saturday. Two nights earlier, the Bears were even more impressive, never allowing UW in the game in a 12-point victory featured on ESPN’s “Duke plays UNC for the first time” Week. That win avenged a 15-point loss in Seattle, a Jan. 16 game that wasn’t even that close.

 

Now 9-4 in conference and 17-8 overall, the Bears are on their way to a Pac-10 regular-season title and a 20-win season despite playing one of the dozen toughest schedules in the nation. Cal’s problem in getting into the NCAA Tournament is partly its own fault. The Bears have yet to beat a likely NCAA Tournament team, going 0-4 against Syracuse, Ohio State, New Mexico and Kansas outside of conference. And, since the Pac-10 is down this season, Cal’s nine wins against eight different league members may fail to sway the Selection Committee. Read More »


Predicting many future events in one large analysis

Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:

 

ACC
Big 12
Big East
Big Ten
Pac-10
SEC
Mid-Majors

 

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

 

ACC

 

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »


West: Huskies and Tigers and Enberg – Oh, my!

Home to the most vulnerable No. 1 seed, the West Region should theoretically be the most wide-open. On the other hand, no team has been more dominant over the last two months than Memphis, but that was against a Conference USA schedule. Is Connecticut truly vulnerable? Are the Tigers truly dominant? Where does that leave Missouri, Purdue and Washington? We’ll try to approach answers to those questions and more in this West Region preview. (The Enberg reference in the headline is to the hopes that Dick Enberg will stay out West to announce the regional in Glendale, Ariz.)

 

Hurting puppies: The Connecticut Huskies are 4-3 in the seven full games they’ve played since Jerome Dyson went down with a right knee injury in UConn’s win over Syracuse on Feb. 11. With the exception of an 11-point win at Marquette in a game when the Golden Eagles lost Dominic James for the season, none of the Huskies’ results have been impressive. Read More »


Catching up with the Pac-10: Why I love it and you should too

I’ve watched more Pac-10 basketball this season than in any other. The cynic would snark that I picked a poor year to get involved with this conference, that last season was the golden year of this decade for the conference. But I am thoroughly pleased with my decision to devote more time to following the Pac-10. I enjoy the league’s balance, its unlikely results, the way the schedule flows predictably and how everyone plays everyone else home-and-home. I love the travel partners and how all the games or on Thursday and the weekend. And with all I’ve been watching and loving, I have a lot to write about the league, which is now at exactly the halfway mark of the conference schedule.

 

Since everyone’s played everyone else once each, it’s fair to compare the teams’ efficiencies and draw sweeping conclusions based on them:

 

Team W L Off Eff Def Eff Diff.
UCLA 7 2 1.190 1.025 +.165
Washington 7 2 1.159 1.017 +.142
Arizona State 5 4 1.090 1.006 +.083
Southern Cal 6 3 1.052 0.992 +.060
California 5 4 1.054 1.040 +.014
Arizona 4 5 1.027 1.039 -.012
Washington State 4 5 0.990 1.020 -.029
Stanford 3 6 1.038 1.100 -.061
Oregon State 4 5 0.968 1.122 -.154
Oregon 0 9 0.939 1.146 -.207

Read More »


Teams that are better than you think they are

I don’t pretend to know what you think, so the headline was more of an estimation of general perception than an attempt to read minds. Here we are in the middle of January, and you’re probably guessing that you know about all of the nation’s best teams. The top-25s list a cross-section of what coaches or the press thinks, but few of these people are charged with following what happens across the entire college basketball landscape, and so they often have blind spots.

 

Because of the imperfection of the rankings system, there are still a few teams that have yet to get much national fanfare but figure to be players in their conferences and into March. Here are five teams that I think fit the bill: Read More »