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	<title>BaselineStats.com: College Basketball Stats and Analysis &#187; Larry Davis</title>
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		<title>Bearcats put undefeated record on line against Gonzaga in Maui</title>
		<link>http://www.baselinestats.com/20091125/bearcats-put-undefeated-record-on-line-against-gonzaga-in-maui/</link>
		<comments>http://www.baselinestats.com/20091125/bearcats-put-undefeated-record-on-line-against-gonzaga-in-maui/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Nov 2009 17:56:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brendon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Big East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mid-Majors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reviews/Previews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[A.J. Ogilvy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Morrison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cashmere Wright]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cincinnati]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Colorado]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Demetri Goodson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deonta Vaughn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dion Dixon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elias Harris]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[G.J. Vilarino]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gonzaga]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeffrey Taylor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lance Stephenson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Larry Davis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Few]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Maryland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Bouldin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Maui Invitational]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mick Cronin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rashad Bishop]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Sacre]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Gray]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Toyloy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vanderbilt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[West Coast Conference]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wisconsin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yancy Gates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baselinestats.com/?p=1527</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For the fourth time in five years, a Big East team will play in the final of one of the best early-season tournaments, the Maui Invitational. While the tournament isn&#8217;t officially seeded, the Cincinnati came in as the presumptive No. 5 seed and has since defeated nationally-ranked Vanderbilt and Maryland in impressive fashion.
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In the final [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the fourth time in five years, a Big East team will play in the final of one of the best early-season tournaments, the Maui Invitational. While the tournament isn&#8217;t officially seeded, the Cincinnati came in as the presumptive No. 5 seed and has since defeated nationally-ranked Vanderbilt and Maryland in impressive fashion.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>In the final for the Maui Invitational, the Bearcats will take on Gonzaga, who squeaked by Colorado and then took down Wisconsin in the semis. Disparities in free-throw shooting and rebounding could determine the outcome. Here&#8217;s a preview of what could be the Big East&#8217;s third major tournament victory of the young season.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Cincinnati is off to a 4-0 start because of its interior. The Bearcats have dominated both glasses, especially the offensive one, in the early going. Yancy Gates (15.2 percent offensive-rebounding rate), Steve Toyloy (12.9) and, surprisingly, 6-foot-3 Dion Dixon (10.1) have been terrific in getting the Bearcats second chances, and it&#8217;s a good thing, because UC is shooting at just a 48.7 percent eFG. They&#8217;ve needed the extra possessions that offensive rebounding brings.<span id="more-1527"></span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The bad shooting is almost entirely a factor of poor outside shooting (28.7 percent on 3-pointers). Cincinnati is great at every factor impacted by interior play, and 2-point shooting is no different. Gates (59.5 2-point percentage), Rashad Bishop (68.4) and guards Dixon (62.5) and Deonta Vaughn (57.1) are all capable of getting it done inside the arc.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>This is where Cincinnati&#8217;s positive offensive characteristics cease. The outside shooting has been very poor. Vaughn, a 33.8 percent shooter last season is shooting at 28 percent this season. This is not a significant difference but a reminder that the senior is not an exceptional shooter, just usually a more capable one. Freshman Lance Stephenson (3-for-13), Larry Davis (4-for-12), Cashmere Wright (3-for-11) and Dixon (2-for-11) join Vaughn as the five Bearcats who shoot the three most often. On Mick Cronin&#8217;s entire team, only Bishop (4-for-10) has a percentage one would consider adequate. Therefore, if Gonzaga can keep the Bearcats on the perimeter &#8212; and close possessions with a defensive rebound &#8212; it can limit their offensive efficiency.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>For all of Cincinnati&#8217;s effectiveness inside on offense, it is quizzically poor at getting to the foul line, and herein lies one of the keys to the game. Gonzaga should have a large advantage in free throws. Cincinnati neither gets their often nor prevents its opponents from doing so, while the Bulldogs are quite the opposite. Consider this: of all the Bearcats, only Vaughn makes as many as three free throws for every eight field goals he attempts, a rate considered adequate. Five of Gonzaga&#8217;s top seven players make that many free throws per eight attempts.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Steven Gray, Elias Harris, Robert Sacre, Matt Bouldin, G.J. Vilarino &#8212; these players will put pressure on the Bearcats defense, because they all can hit shots and get to the line. This is the conundrum opponents have faced against the Bulldogs: they shoot so well as a whole (58.0 percent true-shooting percentage compared to Cincy&#8217;s 50.9) and run their sets so well that fouling can sometimes seem like the only answer. This team is the first since Adam Morrison&#8217;s final season (2005-06) that has shown such an ability to get to the line. Against a Wisconsin team that is usually loathe to foul, Sacre and Bouldin each made 7-of-7 from the line, and Gonzaga outscored its opponents by 11 points at the line in a 13-point win.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>While Bouldin is the shooting star (58.5 percent eFG), Gonzaga actually spreads the ball around pretty well, as the Zags&#8217; top four players &#8212; Bouldin, Gray, Harris, Sacre &#8212; each have usage rates between 22 and 25 percent, and all of them are efficient. Bouldin is the dual threat &#8212; from inside and out &#8212; while Gray is more effective from outside (41.7 percent on 3-pointers). Harris and the 7-foot Sacre are strong from 15 feet in. Freshman point guard Demetri Goodson is less active on the offensive end, and he has been a bit turnover-prone, though his nine-point, zero-assist performance against Wisconsin on Tuesday leaves room for optimism.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>If Cincinnati can force enough missed shots &#8212; a rather obvious statement, I suppose &#8212; it should have the edge. UC&#8217;s length and athleticism help the Bearcats to be very effective in interior defense, even though Gates is the lone consistent shot-blocker. Bishop, Stephenson and Toyloy also have the length to affect shot selection. Sacre, Harris and Bouldin combine to pose the severest test UC&#8217;s interior defense has faced this season. With A.J. Ogilvy and Jeffrey Taylor, Vanderbilt was to provide that test on Monday, but those two made just 5-of-16 2-pointers, while the team made just 9-of-32 (28.1 percent).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Led by Elias (22.4 defensive-rebounding percentage) and Sacre (23.0), Gonzaga is terrific on the defensive glass, but it&#8217;s never been very good on the offensive side, as Mark Few&#8217;s teams seem more interested in preventing the easy transition bucket. When facing a team that is not going to turn it over very much or miss that many shots, it becomes imperative for UC to close out every defensive possession possible with a rebound.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve listed Gonzaga&#8217;s free throws and Cincinnati&#8217;s rebounding as the games two keys, but with two teams that appear to be evenly matched, the difference usually comes in who hits more shots. Gonzaga is the better shot-making team, so it should have a modest edge assuming it&#8217;s able to get good looks against the Bearcats&#8217; length and quickness.</p>
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