Predicting many future events in one large analysis

Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:

 

ACC
Big 12
Big East
Big Ten
Pac-10
SEC
Mid-Majors

 

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

 

ACC

 

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »


Catching up with the Pac-10: Why I love it and you should too

I’ve watched more Pac-10 basketball this season than in any other. The cynic would snark that I picked a poor year to get involved with this conference, that last season was the golden year of this decade for the conference. But I am thoroughly pleased with my decision to devote more time to following the Pac-10. I enjoy the league’s balance, its unlikely results, the way the schedule flows predictably and how everyone plays everyone else home-and-home. I love the travel partners and how all the games or on Thursday and the weekend. And with all I’ve been watching and loving, I have a lot to write about the league, which is now at exactly the halfway mark of the conference schedule.

 

Since everyone’s played everyone else once each, it’s fair to compare the teams’ efficiencies and draw sweeping conclusions based on them:

 

Team W L Off Eff Def Eff Diff.
UCLA 7 2 1.190 1.025 +.165
Washington 7 2 1.159 1.017 +.142
Arizona State 5 4 1.090 1.006 +.083
Southern Cal 6 3 1.052 0.992 +.060
California 5 4 1.054 1.040 +.014
Arizona 4 5 1.027 1.039 -.012
Washington State 4 5 0.990 1.020 -.029
Stanford 3 6 1.038 1.100 -.061
Oregon State 4 5 0.968 1.122 -.154
Oregon 0 9 0.939 1.146 -.207

Read More »