Printable Version of Bracket »

Note: Teams deemed at least 98-percent likely to make the NCAA Tournament are in bold. Three new at-large teams earned their bold tags over the weekend — Louisville, Oklahoma State and Wake Forest. Notre Dame and Virginia Tech just missed.

Moving In as At-large: Arizona State, Mississippi, San Diego State, Washington

Moving Out as At-large: Georgia Tech, Illinois, Rhode Island, UAB

Moving In as Automatic: Vermont (America East), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)

Moving Out as Automatic: Stony Brook (America East), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Coastal Carolina (Big South)

On the Bubble: There was a lot of shuffling around the bubble this weekend with several teams suffering near-devastating losses. Georgia Tech and Illinois both had blowout losses at home. The loss for the Yellow Jackets is their third in five and fifth in seven, and more importantly, it puts them at 7-9 in conference. To me, Illinois only looked like an NCAA Tournament team for about a week all season — when it beat Wisconsin and Michigan State. We’ll see if that 10-8 conference record is enough to override losing five of six and dropping games to Georgia, Bradley and Utah out of conference. Rhode Island lost its fifth of seven against 18-loss UMass in Amherst on Saturday. That will be hard to overcome. Finally, UAB needed to win one of its two tough games this week, but the Blazers lost both by a total of seven points, including a 52-50 win at C-USA champ UTEP on Saturday.

There is a distinctly western flavor to the teams moving into the field. The Pac-10 may turn out to be the greatest beneficiary of the inability of most bubble teams to win down the stretch. Arizona State finished 12-6 in conference after a win over UCLA, and Washington had a strong second half to put Oregon State away in Corvallis. SDSU finished 11-5 in the Mountain West after having no trouble at all with lowly Air Force in Colorado Springs. Mississippi stormed back in the second half to knock off Arkansas in Fayetteville. It’s a 20 minutes that may prove decisive to the Rebels’ season.

Atlantic 10: The closing weeks of the season couldn’t have been any worse for the Atlantic 10, which once appeared likely to get five bids. In their last seven games of the season, Charlotte, Dayton and Rhode Island combined to win just five times — that’s 5-16. One of those wins was in a game between Charlotte and Rhode Island, and another was a home win over winless Fordham for Rhody. None of the five wins was against any of the league’s top three. Saint Louis has passed Charlotte and Dayton on my at-large model, but URI may be the only salvageable team. With a run to the finals of the A-10 Tournament, the Rams could dance.

Temple, Xavier and Richmond continue to play for seeding, all winning over the weekend. The A-10 Tournament champ, assuming it’s one of those three and that justice is served, should be rewarded with a No. 4 seed.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Temple (No. 4)
Xavier (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7)
Rhode Island (seventh-to-last out)

ACC: Wake Forest and Virginia Tech got the wins they needed this weekend. The Demon Deacons were victorious at home against Clemson, and the Hokies went to Atlanta and stunned Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are now in serious trouble with that ugly 7-9 conference record. In Georgia Tech’s defense, it did play the second-toughest conference schedule, getting Duke twice and Maryland on the road. The Jackets have four top-50 wins to their credit but none since January. GaTech plays North Carolina in a 7-10 game on Thursday, which is a must-win. The question is whether Paul Hewitt’s team will need a victory over Maryland in the quarterfinals. I suspect a respectable showing should be enough.

Duke and Maryland closed out their seasons with victories over lesser opposition to tie for the ACC regular-season title. The Blue Devils remain a No. 1 seed, West Virginia being the No. 2 with the only legitimate case for a No. 1 right now. Maryland could move all the way up to a No. 2 or 3 with an ACC Tournament title. A trip to the final should ensure a top-four seed.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 5)
Florida State (No. 8)
Clemson (No. 8)
Wake Forest (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for conference balancing)
Virginia Tech (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Georgia Tech (second-to-last out)

Big 12: Kansas State’s home loss to Iowa State on Saturday should all but eliminate the Wildcats from consideration for a No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, Baylor continues to have trouble finding the respect it deserves. The Bears have identical conference and overall records as K-State, and Baylor’s conference record was achieved against a slightly tougher schedule. Both teams have four wins against top-25 teams, and Baylor has an extra top-100 win. Their RPIs are a spot apart, and yet K-State is a 2 or 3 but Baylor is a 5 or 6? That can’t be right, and I don’t think it is. I suspect the committee agrees with me.

Oklahoma State clinched its berth with a blowout win over last-place Nebraska. Texas was dismantled by said Baylor team in Waco and drops to a No. 7 seed with a 9-7 conference mark.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Baylor (No. 3)
Kansas State (No. 3)
Texas A&M (No. 5)
Texas (No. 7)
Oklahoma State (No. 7)
Missouri (No. 8)

Big East: Syracuse’s loss to Louisville clinched the Cardinals’ bid without hurting Syracuse severely. The Orange is still locked into a No. 1 seed and has a shot at the top overall spot should it win the Big East Tournament and Kansas not win the Big 12. West Virginia has emerged as the strongest No. 2 seed after its overtime win at Villanova. WVU could nab the last No. 1 from Duke should the Mountaineers advance further in their conference tournament. I still have Villanova as a solid No. 2, though I see some have dropped the Wildcats to a No. 3. With the main competition coming from Pittsburgh, New Mexico, Purdue and Ohio State — and three of those five teams getting No. 2’s — I suspect VU is in fine shape for now.

The biggest Big East news of the weekend came from Milwaukee where Notre Dame defeated Marquette. The Irish are on the edge of a berth and may make the field even with a pre-quarters loss to the winner of Seton Hall-Providence. That game could be a play-in game for Seton Hall, which defeated Providence on the road this weekend. It would be SHU’s second win over UND and might be the Big East’s best shot at a ninth bid. On the other hand, USF is also in the mix after defeating UConn on Saturday. Dominique Jones’ boys will play DePaul before getting a shot at Georgetown. A win over the Hoyas — which would be USF’s second this season — would make the Bulls hard to keep out.

As for Connecticut, some are saying that the Huskies need two wins in New York, but I’m not sure defeats of St. John’s and Marquette will be enough. I think three is the number, which means UConn would need to also down Villanova on Thursday.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 3)
Georgetown (No. 5)
Louisville (No. 8)
Marquette (No. 10, moved to No. 9 for conference balancing)
Notre Dame (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Seton Hall (fourth-to-last out)
South Florida (sixth-to-last out)

Big Ten: Illinois is out right now. With an RPI of 77, the Illini can play their way back to the bubble with a win over Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament on Friday. Sunday’s 15-point home loss was as bad as it gets and the second time in a row that the Illini were a no-show against one of the Big Ten’s top four at home.

Ohio State will be one of the interesting seeding decisions on Selection Sunday. The Buckeyes are now 13-2 in their last 15 games with wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois (twice) and Michigan State. Their only losses were at home to Purdue and at West Virginia. The question is how much the selection committee will discount the losses OSU suffered in Turner’s absence. The Buckeyes were 3-3 in those six games, but there’s no guarantee they would have won at Butler (eight-point loss) and at Wisconsin (22-point loss) even with Turner (the other loss was at Michigan by nine). This is something I’ll be mulling considerably over the next week. I don’t think the committee will give OSU a benefit of the doubt all the way to a No. 1 seed, but a No. 2 seed seems likely if OSU advances to the Big Ten final or wins it.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Ohio State (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 4)
Illinois (fifth-to-last out)

Mountain West: New Mexico is a No. 2 seed. Color me uncomfortable with that. I’m assuming a couple of major-conference teams will pass the Lobos this week, but what if they win the Mountain West Tournament? At that point, Steve Alford’s club would be 31-3 with a 5-0 record against the RPI top 25. Brigham Young could play its way to as high as a No. 3 seed by winning the MWC Tourney. I think a 4 or a 5 would fit nicely should BYU make it to at least the final, but there is stiff competition for those spots.

On the bubble, UNLV isn’t doing much, but not much is more than enough with teams falling around it. If the Rebels can win their quarterfinal game against Utah on Thursday then they should be in. The Aztecs have Colorado State in the quarters before a shot at New Mexico. Getting to the final should clinch a bid for SDSU, but even losing in the semis may be enough, though I doubt it.

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 2)
Brigham Young (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 11, eighth-to-last in)
San Diego State (No. 12, second-to-last in)

Pac-10: Oh, my! Dick Enberg will be in Los Angeles for the Pac-10 Tournament, and suddenly this year’s dead horse of major-conference basketball has a chance to showcase teams with legitimate NCAA Tournament hopes. Cal, Washington and Arizona State all got out of the final weekend unscathed, and they are all in the field for now. I maintain that Cal is in if it avoids a quarterfinal loss to either Oregon or Washington State. I’m growing more and more certain that should Washington or Arizona State reach the Pac-10 final, that team would also be in. Despite having the better conference record, ASU is probably less likely to make the NCAAs than Washington because the Sun Devils have just one top-50 win and three top-100 wins. The Huskies two top-25 wins and six top-100 wins.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Arizona State (No. 13, last in)

SEC: Kentucky surely locked up a No. 1 seed with its win over Florida on Sunday. Now the Wildcats have a chance at the top overall seed if they can win the SEC Tournament. Vanderbilt had a bad loss to South Carolina at home, and that loss moves the Commodores off the top four seed lines. Tennessee might have the most to gain from a deep SEC Tournament run. Even a No. 2 seed is not out of the question with the tournament title.

In most years, Florida — losers of three straight — would be in a very tough spot and in need of two SEC Tournament wins to clinch a bid. This year, though, the Gators should get in with a win over Auburn on Thursday. Mississippi will play the winner of Tennessee-LSU (in other words, Tennessee) in the quarters on Friday. A Rebels win would probably seal the deal. If they lose in the quarters, though, then I think they’re probably going to be on the outside looking in. After a no-show performance against Tennessee on Saturday night, Mississippi State probably needs to reach the SEC Tournament final to have a legitimate shot at a bid. To get there, MSU will likely have to beat Florida and Vanderbilt, which means the Bulldogs will have earned their bid.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Tennessee (No. 4)
Vanderbilt (No. 5)
Florida (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Mississippi (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
Mississippi State (ninth-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: Another year, another second-place Missouri Valley Conference team that will likely be left out of the field. The Shockers have 10 top-100 wins but just one against the top 50 (Northern Iowa at home). In recent seasons, similar profiles were not good enough for Creighton or Illinois State, so I’m guessing the same will be true of WSU, which rarely shows up on last-teams-out lists for most projectors. I’ve given the Shockers ample love on mine.

There are two big games for bubble teams tonight in the West Coast Conference and the CAA. Saint Mary’s plays Gonzaga, and William & Mary plays Old Dominion. Let’s compare Gonzaga and Old Dominion for a moment. Both have RPIs in the mid-30s. Both have one top-25 win. Gonzaga has two more top-50 wins but ODU equals the Bulldogs in top-100 wins with eight. Gonzaga has one extra bad loss. ODU went 15-3 in a stronger conference than the one in which Gonzaga achieved its 14-2. ODU does have three more losses but also a tougher strength of schedule. Both teams have 25 wins. I’m not implying that Old Dominion should be ahead of Gonzaga, but how can one team be a No. 5 or 6 seed and the other not get in if it loses its conference tournament final? Surely that’s not the case. Gonzaga is definitely over-respected in comparison to the other top mid-major teams because of the Zags’ reputation, but I suspect Old Dominion will get in regardless of what happens in Richmond on Monday night.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 7)
UTEP (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Utah State (No. 10)
Siena (No. 11)
Memphis (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 12, fifth-to-last in)
UAB (last out)
Wichita State (third-to-last out)
William & Mary (eighth-to-last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (10th-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: I’ll discuss the biggest challenge — finding the final at-large team — in the “On the Bubble” section below. As far as seeding challenges, the Big Ten’s penchant for major injuries is causing a lot of ambiguity. Injuries to Purdue’s Robbie Hummel, Ohio State’s Evan Turner and Michigan State’s Kalin Lucas are all likely to affect their teams’ seeding. In this projection, Purdue gets bumped down to a No. 2 seed after word that Hummel will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL suffered at Minnesota on Wednesday. Lucas is back now, of course, but Michigan State lost the game that Lucas was injured in, the game he missed and the game in which he came back. I think the Spartans are being given too large a benefit of the doubt, as MSU lost by 18 to Wisconsin in the game in which Lucas was injured and by 12 at home to Purdue in the game in which he returned, but they move from a No. 6 to a No. 5 because of that injury. Finally, Ohio State lost three of six when Turner was injured, but is 12-3 since his return. OSU gets a bump from a No. 5 to a No. 3. It’s educated guesswork at this point.

Moving In as At-large: (none)

Moving Out as At-large: (none)

Moving In as Automatic: (none)

Moving Out as Automatic: (none)

On the Bubble: This was the toughest time I’ve had this season filling out the field. Thirty-three of the 34 at-large bids were easy to find, but the last team proved elusive. My model showed only five teams with a legitimate case — Charlotte, Cincinnati, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State and Seton Hall. Charlotte and Cincy actually rated out highest, but SDSU’s strong RPI (37) and recent play put the Aztecs in. The Bearcats continue to have an underrated profile thanks to non-conference wins over Maryland and Vanderbilt. Their four wins against RPI top-50 teams — which includes a sweep of UConn — are more than any other team under consideration. With wins over Gonzaga and Kansas out of conference, Arizona squeaked in last season despite losing five of its last six, including a first-round Pac-10 Tournament loss after a 9-9 conference season. Cincinnati could be this year’s Arizona, only with a finish that’s easier for the committee to stomach.

Atlantic 10: I’m seeing Xavier seeded much lower than No. 5 in most projections, but it’s difficult to understand why. The Musketeers are 11-2 in a strong A-10 with a recent road win against Florida. The 0-5 record against RPI top-25 teams is an eyesore, but the 9-2 record against all other top-100 teams is superb, and XU has no bad losses. By comparison, BYU has no top-25 wins but is seeded — on average — two lines higher. Xavier hosts Richmond — also 11-2 in the A-10 — for a showdown on Saturday.

Temple won ugly on Wednesday, 49-41, over Dayton to join Xavier and Richmond atop the league. The loss kept the Owls’ A-10 title hopes alive with trips to La Salle and Saint Louis on the horizon. The loss for Dayton was its third straight on the road, and the Flyers are now putting themselves in a precarious position. They host UMass and Saint Louis with a trip to Richmond sandwiched in between. They’d do well to sweep those games or will head to Atlantic City for the A-10 Tournament with work to do.

The other two A-10 teams nearest the bubble — Rhode Island and Charlotte — are coming off wins against A-10 bottom-feeders and face tougher road tests this weekend. URI heads to Saint Bonaventure and Charlotte visits GW. Consider wins for both teams necessities.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Temple (No. 5)
Xavier (No. 5)
Richmond (No. 7)
Rhode Island (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Dayton (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Charlotte (second-to-last out)
Saint Louis

ACC: While Maryland continues to show why it is the second best team in the ACC, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Clemson continue to flirt with disaster. After losing to Boston College by 20, VaTech is the most at risk of those three despite having the best conference mark at 8-5. The Hokies have played the easiest conference schedule in the ACC to date. By chance, VT was handed a schedule that saw it face the six other NCAA likelies just once each and facing the five non-NCAA teams twice each. The Selection Committee could and should factor that in if Virginia Tech doesn’t manage to finish better than 9-7 in conference. Saturday’s home matchup with Maryland will be crucial for Seth Greenberg’s team.

Clemson and Georgia Tech are in better shape because of more top-50 wins and tougher schedules, but it would benefit both to finish strong and get to nine wins in conference, though eight wins should be enough. Wake Forest and Florida State are pretty close to locks at this point if they aren’t already, and Maryland is playing for seeding as well.

The other team in need of mention is the conference’s best team, Duke, which hops on to the No. 1 seed line for the first time, in place of the Hummel-less Boilermakers. The Blue Devils would have had a very strong case regardless of what happened with Purdue, though the four losses were keeping them on the No. 2 seed line. Duke is 8-1 against teams ranked from 26-50 in the RPI, but it has just one win against a top-25 team. Purdue and Kansas State — each with 4-1 records against the RPI top 25 — are poised to jump to that No. 1 line. If the Boilermakers are able to defeat Michigan State this weekend, they are likely to jump back up regardless of what Duke does in Charlottesville.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 7)
Florida State (No. 7)
Wake Forest (No. 8)
Clemson (No. 9)
Georgia Tech (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for conference balancing)
Virginia Tech (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)

Big 12: Barring a collapse, these seven are playing for seeding, and no one else is joining the party. Kansas and Kansas State continue to win, as neither has lost since their last meeting on Jan. 30. Missouri, Texas, Baylor and Texas A&M figure to get to at least 10-6 in a strong Big 12 and achieve solid seeds with those records. One team that confuses me is Baylor. The Bears are 21-6 with three wins against the top 25 and six against the top 50, yet their average Bracket Matrix seed is a No. 6. Nothing but name recognition could put Michigan State ahead of Baylor in any bracket.

Oklahoma State stumbled in the second game of its difficult stretch, which was no surprise against the much bigger Longhorns. OSU now hosts Kansas before visiting Texas A&M. If the Cowboys can get to 9-7 in conference, they are a lock (they’re 7-6 now). If they fall to 8-8, I still think they’ll be in good shape — much like a Clemson or Georgia Tech out of the ACC — but they might want to win a game or two in the Big 12 Tournament to avoid sweaty palms on Selection Sunday.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Baylor (No. 4)
Texas (No. 4)
Missouri (No. 6)
Texas A&M (No. 7)
Oklahoma State (No. 8)

Big East: Five Big East teams continue to hop around on the top three seed lines, but it’s looking less and less likely that the league will secure a second No. 1 seed. West Virginia’s loss to UConn all but closes the door on the Mountaineers’ shot at a top seed, though Villanova will push Duke, Purdue and Kansas State should the Wildcats go up to Syracuse and win on Saturday night. Pittsburgh falls to a No. 3 after a bad loss at Notre Dame, but the Panthers shouldn’t fall further, although I’m sure they will in many projections.

UConn’s home win over West Virginia was obviously a crucial one, but that 7-8 conference record means the Huskies are not home free yet. They host Louisville on Sunday in a game that figures to put either team in very good shape. The Cardinals blew a halftime lead at home against Georgetown on Tuesday, which drops them back into the last 10 in. Marquette’s comeback and overtime victory at St. John’s was a necessity for Buzz Williams’ team. The Golden Eagles now visit Seton Hall in a game that is big for both teams, especially the Pirates. Many are ignoring Bobby Gonzalez’s bunch, but SHU has now won four of five and has three winnable games remaining. The Pirates are in need of the quality victory a win over MU would provide.

Notre Dame continues to hang around. Even without Luke Harangody, the Irish drilled Pittsburgh on Wednesday to get to 7-8 in conference. If they can come out on the other end of their brutal upcoming schedule — at Georgetown, Connecticut, at Marquette — with two wins, they will be under serious consideration.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 2)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Georgetown (No. 3)
Pittsburgh (No. 3)
Connecticut (No. 9)
Louisville (No. 10, moved to No. 9 for conference balancing; eighth-to-last in)
Marquette (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for conference balancing; sixth-to-last in)
Cincinnati (last out)
Seton Hall (fourth-to-last out)
Notre Dame (sixth-to-last out)
South Florida (13th-to-last out)

Big Ten: Illinois is not safe even after defeating Michigan in Ann Arbor in an ugly contest on Tuesday. The Illini are now 10-5 in conference, but I’m convinced they need two more wins among their last three games and the Big Ten Tournament to make the field. Illinois hosts Minnesota on Saturday before traveling to Ohio State and then hosting Wisconsin. There’s a good chance that Illinois gets either Michigan State or Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. A 1-3 finish shouldn’t be good enough. It may seem strange if indeed the Big Ten gets only four teams when all four are seeded on the top five seed lines, but there is a recent precedent. Last season, the Big East got seven teams, all seeded No. 6 or better. West Virginia was No. 6 and had a 10-8 conference record, the same as Providence, which did not make the field.

The Purdue-Minnesota game was devastating for both sides. Purdue, of course, lost Hummel for the season, and Minnesota’s defeat probably eliminates it from at-large consideration.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Ohio State (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 5)
Illinois (No. 12, moved to No. 11 seed for conference balancing; fourth-to-last in)

Mountain West: San Diego State’s hold on a bid is tenuous at best, but UNLV has slipped into the last 10 out as well. In their last five games, the Rebels have lost three times and won at home against mediocre opponents — Colorado State and Texas Christian. Lon Kruger’s club will finish the season with Air Force and Wyoming, meaning UNLV is short on chances to make a late impression. The Feb. 6 win over BYU will be more than five weeks old when the committee unveils its bracket, so UNLV would do well to get a quality win in the conference tournament.

New Mexico continues to underwhelm John Gasaway, but the Lobos also continue to do what they set out to do in each game: win. They have 12 straight victories after starting 0-2 in conference. The showdown is on Saturday in Provo where New Mexico hopes to clinch the regular-season title with a sweep of Brigham Young. New Mexico is being seeded anywhere from 2-5, and BYU is being seeded anywhere from 3-6. Saturday’s result might help clarify that.

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Brigham Young (No. 5)
UNLV (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
San Diego State (No. 13, last in)

Pac-10: After defeating Arizona, 95-71, in Berkeley on Thursday night, the Cal Bears have won five of six with all five wins coming by at least 12 points (and the loss as well). There’s still talk of Cal being left out if it loses in the Pac-10 Tournament, but with each dominant victory, the Bears are becoming harder and harder to omit. Along with it being unheard of for a major-conference regular-season champion to be left out of the field, Cal also has a very strong RPI (23) and strength of schedule (11) on its side. Not on Cal’s side are zero top-50 wins and no more chances to get one. It’s difficult to get in as an at-large without a top-50 win. A strong finish from Washington would help Cal, since that’s the Bears’ best win. Right now, in my at-large model, Cal is hanging around Marquette and Rhode Island.

Arizona State and Washington continue to be among the last 10 out, but both will have trouble adding to their lists of quality wins. ASU does have a shot at a big one when it visits Cal on Saturday, though that’s a Catch-22 for the league. A Cal loss might put the Bears in trouble for an at-large bid while vaulting ASU into the last few in. I still maintain that the Pac-10 will get two teams if Cal does not win the conference tournament, but it’s going to be close.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Arizona State (fifth-to-last out)
Washington (seventh-to-last out)

SEC: I’ve already given detailed thoughts on what I think about Mississippi State’s inclusion on some brackets, so I won’t belabor the point. Florida, on the other hand, has recovered from what at the time looked like a very damaging home loss to Xavier. With a win at Mississippi and at home to Tennessee, Florida is in good position. Still, that trip to Georgia looks scary, and finishing at home against Vandy and then at Kentucky will be difficult. Two wins in three will surely get the Gators in, but those two wins may be hard to come by.

A 2-1 finish to the conference season should be enough to lock in a No. 1 seed for Kentucky regardless of what happens at the SEC Tournament. The Wildcats have played their best basketball since losing at South Carolina, winning eight straight by an average margin of 12.5 points. The other two locks in the SEC — Vanderbilt and Tennessee — have been leaking oil of late. After being unable to hit a shot in the home loss to Kentucky, the Commodores couldn’t stop Georgia’s offense but managed to win in overtime on Thursday. With trips to Arkansas and Florida ahead, VU better get things righted or the seed could fall. Tennessee has now lost three of five after falling at Florida on Tuesday. The Vols’ offense has only broken the 1.00-PPP threshold three times in its last 12 games. Tennessee hosts Kentucky on Saturday.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 4)
Tennessee (No. 6)
Florida (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Mississippi State (eighth-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: Northern Iowa had a pretty damaging loss to previously conference-winless Evansville this week. UNI still looks like a pretty solid at-large candidate assuming the Panthers reach the Missouri Valley Tournament final.

With its 11th straight win in Hattiesburg on Wednesday, UTEP is looking more and more like a potential at-large team if the Miners don’t take the C-USA Tournament. They rate out about the same as Cal in my at-large model. Besides a home win over Butler, UAB has a pretty thin résumé, which means upcoming matchups with Memphis and UTEP will be critical for Mike Davis’ team. Memphis probably played itself out of serious at-large consideration with a 17-point loss at Houston on Wednesday.

One other mid-major to note is Utah State. The Aggies have now won 13 straight to move to 25-6 overall and 14-2 in the WAC. With an early-season 10-point win over BYU in their back pocket, they’re setting themselves up for serious at-large consideration should they fall short in the WAC Tournament.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 8)
Utah State (No. 8)
UTEP (No. 10)
UAB (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Old Dominion (No. 11)
Siena (No. 12)
Saint Mary’s (third-to-last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (ninth-to-last out)
Memphis (10th-to-last out)
William & Mary (11th-to-last out)
Wichita State (12th-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Notes: Part of the reason why there are so many changes in this projection is because I’ve switched my model weightings from in-season to end-of-season mode. In other words, I use the proportion of conference, non-conference and total games played throughout the early portion of the season to establish weights for things like conference RPI or non-conference strength of schedule. But I’m finding the full-season projections are a bit more indicative now that we’re so late in the season. The principles are the same, but there is a little more of a shakeup because of that. This is part of why Saint Mary’s drops out of the field despite winning on the road. Now that the conference weights have gone from about two-thirds to full, the Gaels’ conference numbers — which aren’t particularly good — give SMC a hit.

Bracketing Challenges: Two of the most difficult spots to fill in this projection were the last two spots on the No. 2 seedline. Pittsburgh, Villanova and Kansas State were the main combatants for this spot. K-State had a slight disadvantage with just six wins against top-100 teams — compared to 13 for Pittsburgh and 11 for Villanova — but all six of the Wildcats’ top-100 wins are against top-50 teams, and Frank Martin’s team has a 4-1 record against the RPI top 25, which earned K-State one of the two remaining No. 2 seeds. With a head-to-head win and two more victories against top-100 teams, Pitt got the nod over Villanova for the last one.

Moving In as At-large: Connecticut, Florida, Marquette, San Diego State

Moving Out as At-large: Charlotte, Cincinnati, Saint Mary’s, William & Mary

Moving In as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Wofford (Southern), Troy (Sun Belt)

Moving Out as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), College of Charleston (Southern), North Texas (Sun Belt)

On the Bubble: The primary thing that moving from an in-season to end-of-season model did for the bubble was bump Saint Mary’s and William & Mary out and move Marquette and San Diego State in to replace those teams. William & Mary had a loss it could ill afford at Iona on Friday night. The Tribe wasn’t competitive in a 68-52 loss, which will probably be too much of an eyesore for the committee to ignore. Saint Mary’s needs to at least make the conference final, but, based on the committee’s recent handling of at-large candidates in weaker conferences, that might not be enough. Marquette got the road win it needed at Cincinnati after dropping Thursday’s home matchup with Pittsburgh. SDSU won its fourth in a row over Utah on Saturday but will face a very difficult test at Brigham Young on Wednesday.

Connecticut is perhaps the most controversial inclusion in the field, but as the Huskies’ record approaches .500 in conference, the quality of their schedule puts them over the top. There simply aren’t many bubble teams that can boast two top-25 wins and four top-50 wins. Illinois is the only other team ranked 25th or worse in my at-large model that can match UConn in that area. The Huskies have a very big game at home against West Virginia on Monday. Elsewhere, Cincy couldn’t afford a home loss to a team it is fighting with around the bubble, and Charlotte likewise lost at home, albeit to a very good Xavier team. On the plus side, Florida came up with a huge road win in Oxford to all but dash Mississippi’s at-large hopes.

I believe that the only four teams that aren’t in my projection and could legitimately be projected in a field today are the four teams that moved out this weekend. Wichita State, Seton Hall, Memphis, Arizona State and all of the other teams on the outside looking in need at least a win or two before they can be considered more than intriguing.

ACC: Duke continued its winning ways, pulling away from Virginia Tech late in Sunday night’s encounter at Cameron. Winners of six straight since that embarrassment in D.C., the Blue Devils are poised to grab a No. 1 should Purdue fall. The other three No. 1’s — Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky — have created enough separation that one loss would not likely move them down a line. Maryland got a huge home win over Georgia Tech, one that puts the Yellow Jackets in mild discomfort. GaTech, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson and VaTech all have some winning to do before they can feel entirely comfortable, but the standard each must meet to maintain its bid shouldn’t require straining to achieve. Wake Forest lost its second straight on Saturday — this time against North Carolina State in Raleigh — but the Demon Deacons still rate out higher than the other five non-Duke entrants thanks to their five wins against top-50 teams. By comparison, Virginia Tech has four such wins; Clemson, Maryland, Florida State and Georgia Tech have three each.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 2)
Clemson (No. 8, moved to No. 7 seed for conference balancing)
Wake Forest (No. 8)
Georgia Tech (No. 8)
Maryland (No. 9)
Virginia Tech (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Florida State (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)

Big 12: Oklahoma State tried to put to rest any doubts about its candidacy with a home win over Baylor this weekend. That was the first of four straight tough games for the Cowboys who now travel to Austin before hosting Kansas and then revisiting the Lone Star State for a matchup with Texas A&M. Texas bounces back up to a No. 3 seed at the expense of Vanderbilt. The Longhorns escaped from Lubbock with a win on Saturday. Missouri, Kansas State and Texas A&M each avoided upsets against low-tier competition. Not much to see here. The main issues are whether Oklahoma State will slip back toward the bubble and where the top teams are seeded.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Texas (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 5)
Texas A&M (No. 7)
Missouri (No. 7)
Oklahoma State (No. 7, moved to No. 8 seed for conference balancing)

Big East: Lazar Hayward’s 3-pointer in the final seconds of regulation put Marquette into overtime against Cincinnati on Sunday in a game it would eventually win. The Golden Eagles now head to the NYC Metro area for a pair of games this week, first against a St. John’s team that has damaged several bubble teams’ hopes of late and then to a Seton Hall team that will be desperate for a win. The Pirates, playing with a visibly hampered Jeremy Hazell, couldn’t complete a comeback win at West Virginia on Saturday. They have a big week of home games with Rutgers visiting followed by Marquette. Two wins could put Seton Hall close, despite many writing the Pirates off.

Villanova has continued to slip since entering the meat of its schedule. The Wildcats host USF before traveling to Syracuse in a game that could decide the regular-season conference champion. One potential storyline is West Virginia’s rise toward a No. 1 seed. The Mountaineers rate sixth in my seeding model after two straight wins, and they have plenty of chances to impress down the stretch — at UConn, vs. Cincy, vs. Georgetown, at Villanova. A strong finish into the Big East Tournament could allow WVU to nab a No. 1 seed should Purdue and Duke have a misstep.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 3)
Georgetown (No. 3)
Louisville (No. 9)
Connecticut (No. 11, moved to No. 12 seed for conference balancing; seventh-to-last in)
Marquette (No. 11, moved to No. 12 seed for conference balancing; fourth-to-last in)
Cincinnati (fourth-to-last out)
Seton Hall (sixth-to-last out)
South Florida (ninth-to-last out)

Big Ten: Someone needs to explain Michigan State’s continued high seeding to me. I still saw some No. 3 seeds out there entering this weekend, and I expect some No. 4’s even after Sunday’s home loss to Ohio State, but the only reason why is the name on the front of the jersey. The Spartans have exactly two wins against top-50 opponents this season — Gonzaga and Wisconsin, both at home. MSU has now lost four straight against teams with winning records.

Purdue pulled out a win at home against Illinois to maintain its hold on a No. 1 seed. The Illini, despite playing so well of late, remain at tremendous risk of losing their spot in the field. They now visit a Michigan team, which seems to alternate no-shows with great efforts, before finishing with Minnesota at home, at Ohio State and Wisconsin at home. That is not a comfortable finish for a team on the bubble. Elsewhere near the bubble, Minnesota continues to hang around despite that devastating week when the Gophers lost to Michigan at home and then at Northwestern in overtime. A home win over Purdue on Wednesday is just what Tubby Smith’s team needs to get the Gophers back in the mix.

Wisconsin nearly blew a 14-point lead at home to Northwestern but held on for the win on Sunday. Still finding his way after missing six weeks with a broken hand, Jon Leuer looked better, though still not 100 percent. Their record and seed may suffer as Leuer works back into game shape, but Bo Ryan’s team will be very dangerous once that happens. Ohio State continues to play like one of the best teams in the country. The Buckeyes’ don’t have the resume to match warrant a top-two seed, but, after factoring in Evan Turner’s injury and OSU’s splendid play of late, a No. 2 seed is still a possibility with a strong finish.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 1)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Ohio State (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 6)
Illinois (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Minnesota (13th-to-last out)

Pac-10: Finally a weekend when the teams the Pac-10 needed to win did so. Cal recovered from that quizzical performance in Corvallis on Thursday with a 15-point win at Oregon on Saturday. Washington never let UCLA think it was in the game in Seattle on Saturday night, winning by 29. Arizona State had the biggest win of the three, traveling to Tucson and avenging a January home loss to Arizona with a 73-69 victory. This sets up a crucial trip to NorCal for ASU, which ends with a visit to Berkeley on Saturday. A sweep of that trip — as unlikely as that might be — would put the Sun Devils right in the mix for an at-large bid. Washington travels to Washington State on Saturday to start a three-game road swing that will end the regular season. The bad news is where the games are, as the Huskies have struggled away from home this season. The good news is that the three games — which include a season-ending trip to the Oregons — are against the squads likely to finish 8-9-10 in the Pac-10. I’m not sure anything worse than a sweep would put UW in a good place entering the Pac-10 Tournament.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Arizona State (eighth-to-last out)
Washington (10th-to-last out)

SEC: Vanderbilt couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn door on Saturday but still nearly defeated Kentucky in Nashville. That loss drops the Commodores to the No. 4 seedline, but a 3-1 finish would keep Kevin Stallings in the field’s top quarter. Tennessee is on the edge of a top-four seed after a win at South Carolina on Saturday. Temple’s seven top-50 wins to Tennessee’s one gave the Owls the edge for that last No. 4 seed despite the Vols having the better marks in most other areas. At the bubble, Florida’s win at Mississippi was a major step to getting Billy Donovan’s team into its first NCAA Tournament since 2007. The Gators do have a very difficult schedule remaining with home games against Vanderbilt and Tennessee and road matchups at Georgia and Kentucky. A split of those four games would likely keep Florida on the plus side of the bubble. I’m not sure Mississippi State or Mississippi deserves much further mention, although both teams feature the sort of remaining schedule that could allow either to put together a winning streak that would get them back into serious consideration.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 4)
Tennessee (No. 5)
Florida (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Mississippi State (15th-to-last out)
Mississippi (20th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: The Colonial Athletic Association has to wish that Bracket Busters didn’t exist. William & Mary, Northeastern and Old Dominion all suffered losses that hurt both themselves and the league. Virginia Commonwealth was one of the three CAA teams to actually win its Bracket Buster game, but the Rams’ 10-6 conference record now looks unacceptable after the performances of conference mates this weekend. VCU does finish the regular season at Old Dominion, a game that figures to hurt ODU more than it would help VCU should the latter win.

UNI’s win over Old Dominion probably means that the Panthers will be dancing regardless of what happens in the Valley Tournament. Siena’s loss at Butler probably means the opposite. The Saints are pseudo-host of the MAAC Tournament in Albany, and they better win it if they expect to be in the NCAAs for the third year in a row. Utah State’s win over Wichita State means that the Aggies will have a real case should they lose in the WAC Tournament. In the Conference USA, UAB, UTEP and Memphis could all enter the C-USA Tourney on the precipice of at-large bids.

Then there’s the Atlantic 10. There are enough A-10 teams under consideration — seven — that the league probably deserves its own entry. Richmond, Temple and Xavier all look like near locks at this point. Rhode Island is the fourth A-10 team for now. The Rams drubbed lowly Fordham on Saturday, but they face a real opponent in St. Bonaventure in Olean on Saturday. URI has lost to three straight non-Fordham opponents. Dayton’s loss at Duquesne was not the result Brian Gregory’s team needed to solidify its bid. The Flyers still have trips to Temple and Richmond as well as a home game against Saint Louis upcoming. They’ll need a 3-1 finish to feel safe. Charlotte lost by 14 at home to Xavier to drop its third straight and fall out of the field. The 49ers host St. Joseph’s and travel to George Washington this week before the real tests in the regular season’s final week. Of course, every game is a test for Charlotte right now. Finally, after a sixth straight win this weekend, Saint Louis has moved into the last dozen teams out. With games remaining against Xavier, Dayton and Temple, the Billikens could makes things interesting with a 3-1 finish of their own.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Temple (No. 4)
Xavier (No. 5)
Butler (No. 5)
Brigham Young (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7)
Utah State (No. 8)
UNLV (No. 9)
UAB (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Old Dominion (No. 10)
Rhode Island (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
UTEP (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for conference balancing)
Siena (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for conference balancing)
Dayton (No. 12, second-to-last in)
San Diego State (No. 13, last in)
Charlotte (last out)
William & Mary (second-to-last out)
Saint Mary’s (third-to-last out)
Wichita State (fifth-to-last out)
Memphis (seventh-to-last out)
Northeastern (11th-to-last out)
Saint Louis (12th-to-last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (14th-to-last out)
Marshall (16th-to-last out)
Louisiana Tech (17th-to-last out)
New Mexico State (18th-to-last out)
Tulsa (19th-to-last out)

West Virginia: The Mountaineers’ 98-95 overtime loss at Pittsburgh was the most excusable of the defeats suffered by the Big East’s top four on this holiday weekend, but it was also West Virginia’s second-straight loss. It may come as a surprise to some that it’s WVU’s defense and not its offense that has been mostly to blame in the team’s five defeats.

You can see that West Virginia is allowing 0.085 points per possession more than it is scoring in its five losses. The main culprit is field-goal defense. Despite the Mountaineers’ notable length, they are allowing opponents to make 40 percent of their 3-pointers and 57 percent of their 2-pointers in these defeats. For the season, West Virginia is ahead of only the comparatively tiny Marquette and Providence squads in 2-point defense among Big East teams.

Also notable is West Virginia’s proclivity for putting its opponents on the foul line. Some of that is fouling late in games to try to come back, but a lot of it is just being foul-prone. I’ve written before about the link between a team’s willingness to foul and its ability to force turnovers, but WVU is not getting a consistent turnover payoff from its many fouls. An inability to force turnovers combined with putting opponents on the line and allowing a high percentage of makes from the field means that West Virginia is getting far too few stops for a team with eyes on a run to the Final Four.

Syracuse: I wonder how we’ll look back on the Orange’s 66-60 loss to Louisville come in the end of the season. There’s a decent chance that the most important effect of it was to get Louisville into the NCAA Tournament. The Orange still looks a likely No. 1 seed and remains favored to win the Big East regular-season title.

What have we really learned about Syracuse in the last two games — including the narrow and controversial victory over Connecticut — that was underexposed previously? John Gasaway shows that in the highly-offensive Big East, Syracuse actually has been quite mediocre on offense, at least in conference games:

That’s right — Syracuse has been about as good on offense as Providence and Pittsburgh in conference play, and, if you use the RPI, Syracuse has played an easier conference schedule than both teams. To score 1.08 points per possession might be quite an achievement in a conference where scoring wasn’t so prevalent — like the ACC or Big Ten — but the Big East average is 1.06 in conference games. The Orange is not the offensive juggernaut you may have been led to believe.

The primary problem is turnovers. Andy Rautins, Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine all have unacceptable turnover rates, and not even the forwards can keep their rates below 18 percent. Among major-conference teams, only Georgia, North Carolina and Rutgers have allowed a possession to be stolen from them as often as Syracuse has. None of those teams will even be playing in the NCAA Tournament.

The loss to Louisville wasn’t caused by turnovers — though SU had 12 — or poor free-throw shooting from bigs Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku — they combined to take only two free throws; instead, Syracuse was bullied inside. Louisville hit 57.7 percent of its 2-pointers against the third-best 2-point defense in the Big East. The thing is, Louisville only attempted 26 2-pointers, as the Cards were much more willing to jack up 30 threes against Syracuse’s zone. The Cards only hit 30 percent, an ideal figure that should have led to a Syracuse victory, but the Orange could not close out possessions, which leads us to the potentially fatal flaw of the 2-3 zone: defensive rebounding.

Louisville had 38 missed shots open for rebounding and snagged 18 of them. Samardo Samuels and Jared Swopshire each had four offensive rebounds; Rakeem Buckles grabbed three more. It’s unlikely that a defense is going to be excellent at every aspect of defending, but it’s in games where the relative mediocrity of the offense is exposed that the Achilles’ heel of the defense becomes more problematic.

Georgetown: Rutgers’ offense is the third worst in the Big East in conference, scoring 0.97 points per possession. Georgetown’s defense is tied for the third best in conference, allowing 1.03 points per possession. Somehow Rutgers managed to score 1.14 points per possession to come up with the unlikely, 71-68 victory in Piscataway. Georgetown’s fatal flaw: turnover differential.

The Hoyas currently have the 12th-worst turnover differential of the 73 major-conference teams. Here’s a list of the major-conference teams that — like Georgetown — rank outside the national top 200 in both turnovers forced and turnovers committed: Iowa, Rutgers, Georgia, Southern Cal. That is not a list where one would expect a top seed to find itself.

Against Rutgers, Georgetown committed 14 turnovers and forced just eight. That difference – plus some big 3-pointers by RU — allowed the Scarlet Knights to make up for shooting a worse percentage and getting fewer rebounds than the Hoyas.

Turnover differential is not a new problem for Georgetown under John Thompson III. With the exception of the 2005-06 team, JT3’s offenses have always had turnover problems. A lot of that has to do with the number of passes in each offensive set. Teams that pass more — especially on the interior — and run longer offensive sets tend to turn the ball over more. On defense, last year’s team was the anomaly in that it actually forced turnovers. That team was led by the thieving of Jessie Sapp and Greg Monroe, but Sapp is now gone and Monroe isn’t picking up steals as frequently this season.

This turnover disparity forces Georgetown to be extra efficient everywhere else, especially since Georgetown is not a dominant or even a proficient rebounding team. The combination of mediocre rebounding and a poor turnover differential means that GU’s opponents are getting more shots than the Hoyas are.

Rutgers attempted six more free throws and one more field goal than Georgetown. For the season, opponents have attempted 96 more field goals than Georgetown. Despite attempting 96 more, opponents have 87 fewer makes, since the Hoyas are that good at making shots and forcing opponents to miss. What this creates, though, is a narrow margin for error, one that could be devastating against a quality opponent in the NCAA Tournament.

Villanova: Like Syracuse in its narrow victory over Connecticut on Wednesday, there were worrying signs for Villanova on Saturday in a win over Providence. The Friars, undermanned and underexperienced, hung with Villanova for 32 minutes, trailing by just four before a controversial personal foul/technical foul combination elimintated Friars’ fifth-year senior guard Sharaud Curry, who had 19 points on the day. Despite poor shooting from Providence, the Friars were able to hang in before losing by 11 thanks in part to Villanova’s overaggression on defense.

The Wildcats are now notorious foulers. Their games typically take more than two hours, 20 minutes to complete. Jay Wright has a deep bench, and so foul trouble isn’t as much of a worry, although Antonio Pena’s disqualifications do hinder VU on the interior. Against a Friars team not known for its ability to get to the rim and draw contact, Villanova still committed 23 fouls and allowed 33 free-throw attempts, this a week after Georgetown attempted 50 free throws in a 103-90 Villanova defeat.

On Big Monday, it was more of the same. UConn attempted 44 free throws, making 35, and giving the Huskies a 19-point advantage at the foul line in an 84-75 UConn victory. Pena and Corey Stokes both fouled out. Much like Louisville’s win at Syracuse, Connecticut’s victory is surely a bigger positive for the Huskies than it is a negative for the Wildcats, but Villanova’s proclivity for committing fouls is reaching epic proportions.

Of major-conference teams, only Colorado and Washington send their opponents to the foul line at a greater rate than Villanova does. We can only pray that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee doesn’t matchup Villanova and Kansas State in the same bracket, because that game would have the potential of clearing three hours without any calls to the bullpen. At least Kansas State gets to the foul line more than any other team as it fouls its opponents. The Wildcats are just fourth in the Big East at getting to the line. In Big East play, opponents have gotten to the foul line 54 more times than Villanova has and scored 29 more points from the stripe.

If you’re looking for a recent example of a team with Final Four pedigree that fouled so much, you won’t find one. There were two Sweet 16 teams in 2008 with defensive free-throw-attempt-per-field-goal-attempt rates of greater than 46.0 (Villanova’s is currently at 49.7). That year, Western Kentucky (48.7) and, yes, Villanova (46.4) each made the Sweet 16 as No. 12 seeds despite being so foul happy. In 2007, Southern Illinois was a No. 4 seed and lost narrowly to Kansas in the Sweet 16 with an exact match (49.7) of VU’s FTA/FGA rate. In 2006, Billy Gillispie’s Texas A&M team won a game as a No. 12 seed over Syracuse with a rate of 48.5. That’s the extent of NCAA Tournament success for squads that even approach Villanova’s “foul”-ness since 2004.

Either Villanova must improve its ability to play defense without fouling, or it will risk losing big games at the foul line, ironic for a team that shoots free throws so well (eighth in the land at 75.8 percent). Either way, be sure to set your DVR to record at least an hour over in any game the Cats play for the rest of the season.

Mike Montgomery’s team completed a home sweep of the Washington schools with a 16-point win over Washington State on Saturday. Two nights earlier, the Bears were even more impressive, never allowing UW in the game in a 12-point victory featured on ESPN’s “Duke plays UNC for the first time” Week. That win avenged a 15-point loss in Seattle, a Jan. 16 game that wasn’t even that close.

Now 9-4 in conference and 17-8 overall, the Bears are on their way to a Pac-10 regular-season title and a 20-win season despite playing one of the dozen toughest schedules in the nation. Cal’s problem in getting into the NCAA Tournament is partly its own fault. The Bears have yet to beat a likely NCAA Tournament team, going 0-4 against Syracuse, Ohio State, New Mexico and Kansas outside of conference. And, since the Pac-10 is down this season, Cal’s nine wins against eight different league members may fail to sway the Selection Committee.

Nonetheless, Cal is certainly an NCAA Tournament-quality team thanks entirely to its terrific offense. Montgomery boasts a team that can shoot from three, two and the free-throw line. The key man in Cal’s ability to beat opponents from anywhere on the floor is Jerome Randle. The senior belongs in the discussion of point guards who combine a heavy workload with terrific efficiency. Villanova’s Scottie Reynolds, Kansas State’s Jacob Pullen, Michigan State’s Kalin Lucas, Illinois’ Demetri McCamey and Ohio State’s Evan Turner are some of the other names on the short list, but at 5-foot-10, Randle is at least a couple of inches shorter than all of them. Randle has a chance to finish the season as a 90-percent free-throw shooter, 50-percent 2-point shooter and 40-percent 3-point shooter — he’s currently at 91.9, 50.6 and 41.4.

Another senior, 6-foot-5 Patrick Christopher, is Randle’s partner in crime. He’s not as effective a deep shooter (32.8), but he can score inside and does so without turning the ball over. He’s also the Cal player most likely to pick up a steal, which is notable since the Bears don’t get many.

The rest of the team is filled with players who blend in and hit shots. Of the Cal players who play at least 30 percent of the time, only Omondi Amoke and Markhuri Sanders-Frison shoot worse than 50 percent eFG. Amoke is out there because he’s the team’s best rebounder, and Sanders-Frison gets run simply because a six-man rotation isn’t deep enough — though only six players played more than four minutes in the win over Washington State.

By making shots, taking care of the ball and allowing Amoke to patrol the offensive glass, Cal has put together one of the nation’s best offenses, one good enough to score 93 points in 74 possessions against Washington on Thursday in a game ostensibly between the Pac-10’s two best teams. Even with Amoke barely setting foot on the floor, Cal still managed to grab three in every eight misses, and the Bears didn’t miss much. Randle scored 33 points while playing 39 minutes, and his 76.3 eFG on 19 field-goal attempts was a big part of Cal’s team 56.7 eFG.

I’ve focused almost entirely on the offense so far, because the defense isn’t very good. Despite its four top players in minutes and points being seniors, Cal has shown that experience does not necessarily translate to good defense. Cal hardly forces an turnovers — third fewest in the Pac-10 — and struggles to defend on twos, in part because the Bears lack a shot-blocker.

Cal ranks 66th of the 73 major-confernce teams in blocked-shots rate, which has translated into opponents making 48 percent of its twos, 185th best in the nation. Seven-footer Max Zhang leads the team in blocks with 31, but he’s only played 99 minutes across 13 conference games (he has 13 blocks in those games). Jamal Boykin is second on the team with nine blocks.

Without the offensively-limited Zhang on the floor, Cal is often left with the choice to allow its opponents to make 2-pointers or to prevent them by fouling. Against Washington, Cal chose to foul — the Huskies made 26-of-30 free throws. Against WSU, Cal rarely fouled — only nine Cougars free-throw attempts — but allowed WSU to shoot 57.1 percent on 2-pointers.

The Bears’ lack of interior defense combined with an inability to pressure on the perimeter is likely to be devastating to the Bears once it runs up against a team that can score inside in the NCAA Tournament. The defensive problems are most of why Cal has been unable to put together a winning streak longer than three games all season. That could change next weekend, though, as the Bears will ride a three-game winning streak into Corvallis on Thursday.

Cal will follow the trip to both Oregon schools by hosting two tricky games against Arizona and Arizona State before heading to Maples for a season-ending showdown with Stanford. If the Bears win 4-of-5, they’re surely in the field no matter what happens at the Staples Center, home of the Pac-10 Tournament. Anything short of that and Cal cannot be sure of its fate without a couple of wins there. And, if the Bears can get to at least 12-6 — which would require a 3-2 finish — they are likely to win their first Pac-10 title since Pete Newell was the coach 50 years ago. And they’re won’t be a “Weak League” asterisk in the media guide.

Huskies’ more than slim chance: Cal’s victim on Thursday has quietly put together a stretch that puts UW in position to make the field as well. The Huskies’ loss to Cal is their only one since a woeful roadtrip to SoCal in January.

Those five wins in six games — with home matchups against USC and UCLA next weekend — mean Lorenzo Romar’s team has a real shot at an at-large bid. A 4-1 finish and a couple of wins at the Pac-10 Tournament is likely to put Washington in the field. Should Washington finish 4-1, the Huskies would collect at least two more road wins to add to UW’s woeful season total of one, which came at Stanford on Saturday.

The transformation in Seattle has come on defense, as Washington is 11-0 in its last 11 games when holding opponents to less than a point per possession. Until Stanford’s .912 PPP on Saturday, though, the other 10 had all come at home. Playing defense on the road is progress — albeit a bit late in the game — and that progress could save the Pac-10 the ultimate embarrassment of being a one-bid conference.

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: This bracket came together well, but there were still a few challenges. Most notably, any of the last three teams in the field could easily be omitted. South Carolina, Texas Tech and VCU have thin cases, but I found them marginally more compelling than Mississippi, Florida, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and Louisville. If the bracket were announced today, I would not be very confident in those final three teams.

The other challenge continues to be in filling out the top four seedlines. Finding the last two No. 3 seeds was particularly difficult with the poor play of Texas and after Wisconsin’s home defeat to Illinois. Still, the full-season profiles of those two teams remains stronger than Vanderbilt, Gonzaga and the others on the No. 4 seedline.

Moving In as At-large: Illinois, South Carolina, Texas Tech

Moving Out as At-large: Florida, Louisville, Mississippi

Moving In as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt)

Moving Out as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

On the Bubble: It wasn’t a good week for most teams around the bubble. Notre Dame, Minnesota, Louisville, Northwestern, Florida, Washington, Oklahoma State and Virginia Commonwealth all suffered damaging losses. Only two of those teams are in this projection. The Big 12 has taken yet another bid, this one ostensibly from the Big East, which has just five teams in the latest projection after the Cardinals’ wretched performance at St. John’s on Thursday night. There are now seven Big East teams within 20 spots on the bubble but all are on the wrong side of it. The Big Ten saw two teams suffer nearly crippling losses — Northwestern at Iowa on Wednesday, Minnesota at home to Michigan on Thursday — but Illinois defeated Michigan State and Wisconsin in the span of three days to leap into the field.

ACC: After a second-straight road win, Duke now appears destined for a No. 2 seed and could even pip a No. 1 seed with a dual ACC regular-season and conference championship. Wake Forest and Georgia Tech are also comfortably in the field and should view No. 4 seeds as achievable goals should they finish strong. Wake had a big overtime win in Charlottesville on Wednesday. At the same time, Georgia Tech was losing to Miami in Coral Gables.

The bubble picture is an interesting one, as Clemson and Florida State continue to jockey on the positive side of the bubble. The Tigers defeated FSU in Clemson on Wednesday. Maryland was off in the midweek and will travel to Durham on Saturday. The Terrapins remain just barely in the field despite a 6-2 conference record. With just two wins against top-50 teams, Maryland will have to knock off at least one of the four remaining top-50 teams on its schedule or risk omission.

The strangest case of any team fighting for an at-large spot may be Virginia Tech’s. Like the Terrapins, VaTech has a lovely conference mark (6-3) to go with a 19-4 overall record, but the Hokies are still on the outside looking in. If Seth Greenberg’s team does miss the NCAAs, it can blame a non-conference schedule ranked 336th most difficult of 347 teams. VaTech does have seven wins against top-100 teams but just one against the RPI top 50 — last Saturday’s home win over Clemson. With four more games against top-50 teams upcoming, VaTech will have plenty of chances to pad the profile, and the Hokies better take advantage.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 2)
Wake Forest (No. 5)
Georgia Tech (No. 7)
Clemson (No. 8)
Florida State (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Maryland (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (fourth-to-last out)

Big 12: I think it’s unlikely that the Big 12 gets eight teams in the NCAA Tournament, but right now it deserves all of them. Texas Tech has surprised most with its play of late — the Red Raiders have now won 4-of-6 after a one-point win at Oklahoma on Tuesday. The meat of the schedule is still to come for Pat Knight’s team, but Tech has four of its last seven at home.

Kansas appears poised to continue its reign atop the Big 12 after a commanding win in Austin on Monday. The Jayhawks have a three-game lead in the loss column and firm grasp on a No. 1 seed. Texas, meanwhile, has hit a crisis point. Rick Barnes has not found a proper mix of his immensely talented roster, and he is now looking up at the top seeds of the tournament. Kansas State is in better shape than Texas, especially with a couple of home games against weaker Big 12 teams — Colorado and Nebraska — coming up. Frank Martin’s team is likely to be favored in its next five games until a March 3 rematch with Kansas in Lawrence.

Texas Tech’s ascension has come as Oklahoma State slips closer to the cutline. The Cowboys have lost three in a row and now face a critical stretch — vs. Oklahoma, at Iowa State, vs. Baylor — where two wins are the minimum requirement. With Baylor and Missouri looking solid, OSU and Tech are the two Big 12 teams currently in the field who are most likely to be sad on Selection Sunday.

Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 3)
Texas (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 6)
Texas A&M (No. 7)
Missouri (No. 8)
Oklahoma State (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for conference balancing; sixth-to-last in)
Texas Tech (No. 12, third-to-last in)

Big East: The Big 12’s eight bids in this projection are approximately as astounding as the Big East’s five. These things have a way of working themselves out by mid-March, but the Big East bubble teams need to start winning. Of the seven Big East bubble teams, only one — Seton Hall — won on the midweek, and the Pirates were the bubble team furthest from the field before that victory and remain so.

USF, Cincinnati and Marquette were off in the midweek, and all face important tests this weekend. USF heads to Marquette for perhaps the biggest bubble contest anywhere this weekend. Cincinnati travels to Connecticut before heading to USF on Tuesday. Notre Dame hosts St. John’s, and Louisville travels to Syracuse before those two teams meet in the Bluegrass State on Wednesday. Finally, Seton Hall may be the most unlikely of the Big East’s Bubble Seven to make the NCAAs, but the Pirates host DePaul on Sunday before traveling to St. John’s next Tuesday. A 2-0 mark would bring Seton Hall to 6-7 in conference with plenty of winnable games remaining.

There are teams in the Big East that aren’t on the bubble, and four of them are right near the top of the field. Villanova’s win at West Virginia made the Wildcats’ stay on the No. 2 seedline a decidedly brief one. Syracuse managed to escape at home against Connecticut to stay the No. 2 overall seed. Truthfully, the Orange would probably need to lose twice to fall off the top line. WVU and Georgetown slot in as No. 2 seeds, although West Virginia is the last of that grouping and probably needs to win at Pittsburgh on Friday to stay there.

Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 1)
Georgetown (No. 2)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 5)
Cincinnati (last out)
Louisville (fifth-to-last out)
South Florida (seventh-to-last out)
Marquette (eighth-to-last out)
Notre Dame (10th-to-last out)
Connecticut (18th-to-last out)
Seton Hall (19th-to-last out)

Big Ten: Illinois has been undaunted by the increase in competition over the last week. The Illini’s offense — led by Demetri McCamey — has spurred a 2-0 stretch that brought Bruce Weber’s team from more than a dozen spots outside the field a week ago to 10th-to-last in the field in this projection. Fellow bubble brethren Minnesota and Northwestern cannot speak as proudly about their midweek performances, and neither is more than a longshot at this point — though the Gophers are the shorter of the longshots.

Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State could all finish from a No. 2 seed to a No. 5 or 6. The Boilermakers have the most impressive profile so far, the Buckeyes the least. But Evan Turner’s absence should continue to boost OSU’s seeding as long as the Buckeyes continue to play well. The big game of the weekend is on Sunday when Ohio State attempts to cool off the red-hot Illini in Champaign.

Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Wisconsin (No. 3)
Michigan State (No. 4)
Ohio State (No. 5)
Illinois (No. 9, 10th-to-last in)
Minnesota (20th-to-last out)

Pac-10: While the nation writes off the Pac-10 of unworthy of an at-large bid, California is trying to make sure that it secures one should a Pac-10 Tournament title not come the Bears’ way. Jerome Randle starred in a decisive victory over pretenders to the throne Washington on Thursday in Berkeley. The Huskies now must be nearly perfect to make the field, and the same could be said for both Arizona schools, which had little trouble sweeping the Oregon schools at home on Thursday.

Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (ninth-to-last out)
Arizona (16th-to-last out)
Arizona State (17th-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee are almost certain to make the field, and UK is looking good for a No. 1 seed, provided the Wildcats have at most two slip-ups from here on out. The Volunteers drilled the Vols on Tuesday in Nashville and can claim a top-four seed with continued quality play. Tennessee figures to end up more in the No. 6 or No. 7 seed area.

The SEC bubble is one of the harder to parse. South Carolina, Mississippi and Florida have borderline cases, but it’s the Gamecocks’ quality wins — Richmond, Kentucky, Florida, South Florida — that get them in right now. Mississippi’s 5-5 conference record in the weaker SEC division isn’t helping Andy Kennedy’s team either. Mississippi State got back in the mix with its home win over the Rebels on Thursday. The Bulldogs own two more losses against teams outside the top 100 (two) than wins over the top 25 (zero).

Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 4)
Tennessee (No. 6)
South Carolina (No. 13, last in)
Florida (second-to-last out)
Mississippi (13th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown: Let’s talk about Cornell. Peer pressure is the biggest reason why I bumped the Big Red from a No. 13 to a No. 12 seed. The Ivy League leaders are ranked in the top 25 and have appeared as high as a No. 7 seed in some projections, and my No. 13 seed was the lowest on the most recent Bracket Matrix. I have no doubt that Cornell is a good team, but I like my teams seeded on the first 10 or so lines to have beaten someone good. Cornell has a total of zero wins against the top 50 and three against the top 100. Cornell’s best three wins are over St. John’s, Alabama and Harvard, none of which is in the mix for an NCAA Tournament berth. In Cornell’s three games against teams with even modestly legitimate chances at making the field, the Big Red lost a close one at Kansas, lost by 15 at Syracuse and lost by 10 at home to Seton Hall. Does that look like a No. 7, 8, 9 or even 10 seed to you?

Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Gonzaga (No. 4)
Brigham Young (No. 4)
Northern Iowa (No. 5)
Butler (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7)
Temple (No. 7)
Xavier (No. 8)
UAB (No. 8)
Rhode Island (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Siena (No. 10)
Dayton (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 10, seventh-to-last in)
Utah State (No. 11)
UTEP (No. 11)
Charlotte (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
Virginia Commonwealth (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Cornell (No. 12)
William & Mary (sixth-to-last out)
San Diego State (11th-to-last out)
Wichita State (12th-to-last out)
Memphis (14th-to-last out)
Tulsa (15th-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.

It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.

Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference.

In the last two projections, finding a team to fill out the third seedline was the biggest problem, but Wisconsin’s victory over MSU vaulted the Badgers to a No. 3, eliminating that problem. The new problem was filling out the fourth seedline, where a half-dozen or more teams have good cases to join New Mexico, BYU and Baylor. I went with Ohio State because the Buckeyes seemed to fit the best, despite ranking just 22nd in the BTI seeding model. A bit of a bump for Evan Turner’s injury combined with OSU’s recent terrific play gives the Buckeyes the nod over Temple, Vanderbilt, Butler, Gonzaga, Tennessee and Northern Iowa.

Moving In as At-large: South Florida

Moving Out as At-large: Connecticut

Moving In as Automatic: Old Dominion (from at-large to automatic; Colonial), Lehigh (Patriot)

Moving Out as Automatic: George Mason (Colonial), Lafayette (Patriot)

On the Bubble: There was not a ton of movement from one side of the cutline to the other, with USF getting the big bump after Wednesday’s win at Georgetown, while UConn finally couldn’t justify its spot any longer after a sorry performance at Louisville. The last team in and last team out remained the same, as neither South Carolina nor Dayton played during the midweek. There were a couple of big moves from teams that had been well outside the field and are now knocking on the door. Notre Dame and Washington, with Thursday home wins against solid opposition, moved into the last 10 out.

ACC: Duke jumps back on to the No. 2 seedline after an impressive performance at home against Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils still have that ugly 1-4 road record, but seven wins against the top 50 — a total that is tied with Kansas for most in the nation — have a way of making the road mark easier to ignore. Three of Duke’s next four are on the road against teams that don’t appear to be headed to the NCAA Tournament, so the Blue Devils could pad the road record over the next 12 days.

The most interesting action in the ACC is happening at the bubble where Maryland’s road win at Florida State was a huge victory for the Terps’ chances and equally damaging to FSU. Gary Williams’ team is not comfortable, but it is in very solid shape thanks to a 5-2 conference mark. With six top-100 wins and two top-50 wins, FSU is still in decent shape, but home losses kill the RPI, and Leonard Hamilton’s saw his team’s fall to 44 after Thursday’s loss. Maryland hosts UNC, and FSU hosts Miami this weekend.

A little further from the cutline are Virginia Tech and Virginia, both of whom secured solid home wins against second-tier ACC competition this week. Both schools still have plenty of work to do to compensate for weak play out of conference — in VaTech’s case, that’s mainly due to a wimpy schedule. Virginia’s final nine conference games should be its toughest, starting with a home matchup against Wake Forest on Saturday. Virginia Tech hosts Clemson that same day.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 2)
Georgia Tech (No. 6)
Wake Forest (No. 7)
Clemson (No. 7, moved to No. 8 for bracket balancing)
Maryland (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Florida State (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing; third-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (18th-to-last out)
Virginia (20th-to-last out)

Big 12: The one thing you should notice about the Big 12 is just how comfortable its seven bids look. None of the seven teams are among the last 10 in, and that’s true even after Oklahoma State lost its second straight on Monday to Texas. There’s still plenty of time for OSU, Missouri or Texas A&M to play their ways out of the field, but nine conference wins should get each in.

Texas got back on track with a terrific second half in Stillwater on Monday, Kansas State blew out Nebraska in Lincoln, and Baylor had no trouble with Iowa State at home. Kansas remained undefeated after a win on Wednesday, but it took overtime to leave Boulder with the victory. All four teams are playing for seeding, although Baylor — at just 4-3 in conference — needs to be careful that it doesn’t get swept in its upcoming road games. Scott Drew’s team travels to A&M on Saturday and Nebraska on Wednesday.

Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Texas (No. 2)
Kansas State (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 4)
Missouri (No. 8)
Texas A&M (No. 8)
Oklahoma State (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for bracket balancing)

Big East: Georgetown’s home loss to South Florida dropped the Hoyas down a seedline, but Syracuse, Villanova and West Virginia all won comfortably. The real intrigue is taking place near the bubble where eight teams cannot be sure of their March fate.

Louisville got the win it needed at home against Connecticut, and the Cards are now halfway to the 10 league wins they’ll likely need to make the NCAAs. UConn is now in very tough shape. The winless week against Providence and Marquette will be what fans will point to if the Huskies fail to dance, and after their play in Louisville, it’s hard to see many more W’s coming from this bunch. At the very minimum, UConn needs to finish 5-3 in conference to have a decent chance at the Garden in March, and it will probably take a 6-2 mark to seal a bid. The Huskies still face four very difficult road games, including trips to Syracuse and Villanova.

Pittsburgh continued to slide with a weak second half at West Virginia on Wednesday. The Panthers are still in better shape than the other seven Big East teams fighting for 3-5 berths, but that gap is closing. The Panthers host Seton Hall, Robert Morris and West Virginia over the next week. The Pirates lost their second straight road game at Villanova on Tuesday.

I thought that Notre Dame’s loss to Rutgers last Saturday put the death knell in its realistic NCAA Tournament hopes, but the Irish made a surprising jump in my model with the win over Cincinnati on Thursday. UND has a very difficult upcoming schedule, and will probably need to finish 5-3, but there’s definitely still a chance. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is still in the field despite the fact that the Bearcats don’t have the look of an NCAA Tournament team. The Bearcats — still being propped up by non-league wins over Maryland and Vanderbilt — will have to win on the road if they hope to earn a bid, and they have four more chances. But first, UC hosts Syracuse on Sunday.

How could I have gotten this far and not mentioned USF, which is trying to hone in on Northwestern’s feel-good rooting interest? Two weeks ago, the Bulls had won just one Big East game on the road and had never won two straight league games. Stan Heath has now seen his team win two Big East road games and four straight in a fortnight, all without top post player Augustus Gilchrist. Irresistible scorer Dominique Jones has to be conference player of the year, right? The new road warriors travel to Notre Dame and Marquette on the next two weekends. A 10-8 finish and a win in New York will almost certainly get the Bulls in.

Finally, there’s Marquette, which avenged that loss at DePaul by defeating the Blue Demons by 11 in Milwaukee. MU is back to .500 in conference and doesn’t face a top-four Big East team the rest of the way. That means a lot of winnable games — but also tricky ones — starting Saturday in Providence against a Friars team that the Golden Eagles defeated by 30 on Jan. 17.

Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Georgetown (No. 3)
Pittsburgh (No. 7)
Louisville (No. 9)
Cincinnati (No. 10, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing; ninth-to-last in)
South Florida (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing; sixth-to-last in)
Notre Dame (third-to-last out)
Marquette (sixth-to-last out)
Connecticut (10th-to-last out)
Seton Hall (16th-to-last out)

Big Ten: I discussed most of the action surrounding the first four teams in the general bracket breakdown that leads this piece, so let’s get straight to the bubble. Illinois had a nice win at Iowa, and Northwestern pulled away from Michigan in the second half. Minnesota was off. The Illini have just completed their very generous early schedule, while the Wildcats have just begun the soft underbelly of its league schedule. Chances are all three teams meet somewhere around .500, but it’ll take at least 10 conference wins for any of these teams to dance.

The big game for the bubble teams this weekend is in Champaign where Illinois hosts Michigan State, and Bruce Weber’s team will try to prove that its improved 2-point defense wasn’t a product of a soft recent schedule. Minnesota tries to bounce back from an ugly loss to Ohio State with a trip to Penn State, and Northwestern hosts Indiana.

Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Wisconsin (No. 3)
Michigan State (No. 3)
Ohio State (No. 4)
Minnesota (seventh-to-last out)
Illinois (14th-to-last out)

Pac-10: California’s hopes of securing an NCAA Tournament bid before reaching Los Angeles for the Pac-10 Tournament took a major hit with a loss in LA at USC on Thursday night. Arizona, the team Cal entered Thursday tied with atop the league standings, had a tough loss at Washington, as top interior scorer Derrick Williams fouled out in just seven minutes. With those two results plus Arizona State’s win at Washington State and UCLA’s victory over Stanford, there is now a four-way tie atop the Pac-10 standings at 6-4.

Many people are assuming that the Pac-10 will only get one bid, and that may be true, but because it’s assumed to be true, most are ignoring the four teams in the league that can still earn at-large berths. Along with Cal and Arizona, Washington is now within striking distance after the win over the Wildcats, and the Sun Devils also have a puncher’s chance with a strong finish. ASU and UW meet in Seattle on Saturday in a critical game for both teams.

Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (fourth-to-last out)
Arizona (eighth-to-last out)
Arizona State (15th-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky has finally moved up to No. 4 in the BTI seeding model after a second straight quality win on Tuesday, this one against Mississippi. Tennessee narrowly escaped LSU, and Vanderbilt had a tough home win against Mississippi State. All three of those SEC East teams are comfortably positioned for an NCAA bid.

Elsewhere in the East, Florida got a much-needed road victory at Alabama. It was a game that UF probably could not afford to lose if it has hopes of getting the 10 conference wins that would assure a bid, though a 9-7 mark would still give the Gators a chance. South Carolina was on a bye and remained on the very edge of the field. The Gamecocks head to Tennessee on Saturday.

Out West, things continue to look sour for the Mississippi schools. MSU dropped its third straight road game by a combined 13 points in Nashville on Wednesday. With a trip to Gainesville on Saturday, the Bulldogs are in desperate need of a win or risk losing touch with the field. The Rebels dropped to 4-4 in conference after a 10-point loss in Lexington. That was expected — the killer was the Sunday home loss to Arkansas. Andy Kennedy’s team will have to avoid a similarly injurious defeat when it hosts Alabama on Saturday. MSU and Ole Miss meet in Starkville on Tuesday.

Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 5)
Tennessee (No. 6)
Mississippi (No. 11, fourth-to-last in)
Florida (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing; second-to-last in)
South Carolina (No. 13, last in)
Mississippi State (19th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: It’s becoming clear to me that the toughest part about seeding the upcoming tournament will be determining what to do with the glut top mid-major teams. Be it New Mexico, Butler, Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Siena or Cornell (along with many others), bracket projectors are going to have a hard time figuring out the appropriate place for each. In the past, selection committees have been wildly erratic in placing teams like this, sometimes missing the projectors’ consensus by 2-3 seedlines.

For instance, Gonzaga and Butler are both ranked in the top-15 in the Coaches Poll, but the two teams are running well behind that (24th and 27th respectively) in the BTI model. On the other hand, Northern Iowa was 22nd in the poll but is 16th in the BTI. Rhode Island and Xavier are unranked but are slotted 23rd and 25th (right with Butler and Gonzaga) in the BTI model. The NCAA Selection Committee is not a slave to public opinion, and it definitely favors my model over the polls, but the relationship is not as strong with mid-majors as with the big boys.

Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 4)
Brigham Young (No. 4)
Temple (No. 5)
Butler (No. 5)
Gonzaga (No. 5)
Northern Iowa (No. 6)
Rhode Island (No. 6)
Xavier (No. 7)
UNLV (No. 8)
UAB (No. 8)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Charlotte (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Richmond (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 10, seventh-to-last in)
Siena (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing)
Utah State (No. 12)
Cornell (No. 12)
Dayton (last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (second-to-last out)
San Diego State (fifth-to-last out)
William & Mary (ninth-to-last out)
Northeastern (11th-to-last out)
Wichita State (12th-to-last out)
Tulsa (13th-to-last out)
Memphis (17th-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Breakdown: Perhaps the most difficult aspect to building this bracket was finding that last No. 3 seed. Out of Purdue, Kansas State, Duke, Texas and West Virginia, it was clear that two of them would be No. 2 seeds and three would be No. 3 seeds, but there was no obvious choice to fill out that third line. Just like in the last projection, I went with New Mexico over Brigham Young and any other team — Wisconsin, Tennessee, Baylor, Temple, Ohio State, Georgia Tech — that might have had a claim.

The good thing is that none of those teams had a very strong claim at that spot. New Mexico was the choice because its five wins against top-50 teams was more than any other team that hadn’t been bracketed, except Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, which also have five. New Mexico’s record (20-3), combined with a head-to-head win over Brigham Young, a six-game winning streak and a 10th ranking in my seeding model put the Lobos over the top. I’m not sure what the Selection Committee would do if presented this scenario, but the only other teams I could see them bracketing here are BYU, who — again — has lost to New Mexico head-to-head, or Ohio State, if the Buckeyes were given a complete pass for losses suffered when Evan Turner was injured.

Moving In as At-large: South Carolina, Old Dominion (from automatic to at-large)

Moving Out as At-large: Minnesota, North Carolina

Moving In as Automatic: Stony Brook (America East), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), George Mason (Colonial), Jackson State (SWAC), Utah State (WAC)

Moving Out as Automatic: Maine (America East), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Old Dominion (Colonial; still an at-large), Texas Southern (SWAC), Louisiana Tech (WAC)

On the Bubble: It’s not hard to make a case against any of those last four in. Connecticut is a popular whipping boy with its poor play in January, save one fine effort, but the Huskies still have seven wins against top-100 teams, albeit just one against a top-50 squad. Maryland and South Carolina have pretty weak cases, but the Terrapins strong conference record in the ACC keeps the Terps in despite losing the ACC automatic bid. For the Gamecocks, with a win over Georgia to get them above .500 in conference combined with the win over Kentucky, they squeak in. Florida’s narrow loss at Tennessee wasn’t enough to knock them down over some of the teams nipping at the Gators’ heels.

Heading in the wrong direction are North Carolina and Minnesota, which each had embarrassing performances on Sunday. North Carolina was never competitive with Virginia in Chapel Hill during the second half before losing by 15. Minnesota’s vaunted defense had no answer for Ohio State in Columbus, losing by 22. The Gophers are looking less and less like the team I called one of the country’s most underrated just more than a month ago.

ACC: Duke’s blowout loss at Georgetown means the ACC will have a difficult time getting a team on the top line come Selection Sunday. The Blue Devils appear to be on their way to a six-loss regular season, and that’s simply too many defeats for a top seed. Up next for Duke is Georgia Tech at Cameron, and the Yellow Jackets may be the ACC team in the best position to join Duke on the top four lines of the field.

The ACC is balanced and, as such, it’s going to be hard for more than a team or two to win more than 10 conference games. That should set up well for the league getting at least half of its members into the NCAAs, but it could suffer in seeding. Clemson’s win over Maryland on Sunday puts the Tigers into a more comfortable position near the middle of the seed chart, while Wake Forest inches down toward Clemson after a 21-point loss at Georgia Tech. It appears likely that Clemson, Wake Forest and maybe four or five other teams will finish in the 8-8 or 9-7 range in conference.

I’ve already discussed Maryland, which needs more conference wins — probably 10 — to feel safe because of its poor play out of conference. Virginia and Virginia Tech are still in play, and both have similarly poor non-conference slates to overcome. VaTech’s loss to Miami on Saturday hurts a lot. UNC still lurks, but the Tar Heels will need to pick up the pace to get the .500 conference record that will put UNC in a good spot.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 3)
Georgia Tech (No. 5)
Florida State (No. 6)
Wake Forest (No. 8)
Clemson (No. 8)
Maryland (No. 12, second-to-last in)
North Carolina (10th-to-last out)

Big 12: Kansas inches past Syracuse as the overall top seed after the Jayhawks’ stirring overtime win in Manhattan on Saturday night (and the Orange’s earlier performance at DePaul). Meanwhile, I’ve held the Wildcats as a No. 2 seed despite the loss — neither Duke nor West Virginia was very compelling in this spot. Texas drops to a No. 3 seed after losing its third in four games. With two trips to Oklahoma this week, the Longhorns need to put together a string of victories or risk seeing their No. 1 seed slip away for good.

Missouri and Baylor make nice jumps after impressive wins. Missouri took care of Oklahoma State at home, and Baylor, of course, won in overtime at Texas. The Bears have a tentative grasp on a No. 4 seed, and a 10-6 conference record — they’re 3-3 now — should keep them there. OSU drops but is still in solid position as a No. 9 seed, but the Cowboys have a tricky week ahead, hosting Texas Monday night before traveling to Lubbock to play Texas Tech on Saturday. A&M’s big win over Tech moves the Aggies up a notch. Tech really needed that win to stay in the hunt, though that loss wasn’t nearly as devastating as Oklahoma’s defeat to Nebraska.

Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Texas (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 4)
Missouri (No. 6)
Oklahoma State (No. 9)
Texas A&M (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)

Big East: While Georgetown was solidifying itself on the No. 2 seedline and Syracuse was avoiding a damaging loss, the news was not as positive around much of the rest of the league. Louisville blew a double-digit lead to West Virginia in Morgantown, a win that would have made the Cardinals a very comfortable at-large team. As it stands, they’re among the last five in. Connecticut nearly came back to defeat Marquette but instead saw Jimmy Butler’s game-winning 12-footer put the Huskies on the precipice. In Piscataway, Rutgers likely took care of Notre Dame and Luke Harangody’s hopes of an NCAA appearance as a senior with a 74-73 win. On Sunday, Pittsburgh went down to South Florida and limped away the third straight Bulls’ victim.

One team’s loss is another’s gain, though, as Marquette and USF have now played their ways into a striking distance. The Golden Eagles have bounced back from that awful loss at DePaul and host DePaul this week before traveling to Providence, two games MU should — and needs to — win. The turning of the schedule in the Golden Eagles’ favor could get Marquette back in the field soon. USF, meanwhile, is as close to the bubble (about 12th out) as late in the season as it has been since joining the Big East. The Bulls’ next three games, though, are all on the road: at Georgetown, Notre Dame and Marquette. They’ll need at least one win in three to hang around the discussion.

Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 1)
Georgetown (No. 2)
West Virginia (No. 3)
Pittsburgh (No. 7)
Cincinnati (No. 9)
Connecticut (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing; fourth-to-last in)
Louisville (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Marquette (third-to-last out)
Seton Hall (eighth-to-last out)

Big Ten: Michigan State and Purdue continue to plug along with conference wins. Northwestern hung with MSU for a half but couldn’t keep contact in the second half, and winless Penn State was no match for Purdue in West Lafayette. Ohio State had the impressive win over Minnesota, and Wisconsin was on a bye. There’s a good chance that all four teams end up among the top 16 teams.

After the four definites, though, no one has stepped up. Northwestern couldn’t get a signature, albeit unlikely, win in East Lansing on Saturday. The Wildcats, now 3-6 in conference, face a long stretch of games against teams they will be expected to beat to keep the dream alive, beginning with Michigan and Indiana at home this week. Minnesota, likewise, is below .500 in conference but with its most difficult games in the rearview. The Gophers head to State College on Saturday.

Illinois has an uphill climb despite sitting at 6-3 in conference after Demetri McCamey’s game-winning floater against Indiana on Saturday. With home-and-homes against Wisconsin and Ohio State to come, the schedule is turning against the Illini, and they’ll need at least 11 conference wins to make up for their poor non-conference play. Of these three, Minnesota appears the most likely to make the NCAAs and Illinois the least, though I’d still not put the Gophers at any better than 50 percent.

Bid Breakdown:

Michigan State (No. 2)
Purdue (No. 2)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Ohio State (No. 5)
Minnesota (seventh-to-last out)

Pac-10: Whatever gap California had opened up on the rest of the Pac-10 was brusquely closed by Sean Miller and Arizona on Sunday. The Wildcats’ four-point win created a tie atop the conference halfway through league play. Despite a mediocre 12-9 record, Arizona has enough quality wins to be just outside the field this week. A 6-3 finish to the season will have Arizona knocking on the door once again.

Despite the loss, Cal is in solid shape with a decent finish to conference season, and the Bears are good enough to do that. The only other Pac-10 teams with a sniff at the field are Arizona State and Washington, but both will have to close hard — think 7-2 — to have a legitimate shot at a bid entering the Pac-10 Tournament.

Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Arizona (second-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky got its best win of the season on Saturday at home against Vanderbilt, and with the Wildcats’ would-be No. 1-seed successors — Duke, Texas, Kansas State — dropping like flies around them, Kentucky has a more comfortable hold on that last No. 1 seed. Any of the four No. 2 seeds could eventual supplant UK, but Georgetown and Kansas State each have four losses, and Michigan State and Purdue each have three. None will jump that gap as long as UK continues to win.

Tennessee got a crucial one-point home win over Florida on Sunday, one that halts a potential freefall, at least for now. A Gators win in Knoxville would have put them comfortably in the field, but it instead appears that Billy Donovan’s squad will continue its dance with the bubble into March for the third straight season.

Arkansas continued its campaign to derail any SEC West teams’ chances of making the NCAA Tournament by going down to Oxford and defeating the Rebels Sunday in a game postponed a day by bad weather. Mississippi now has a short turnaround before heading to Lexington on Tuesday. Mississippi State got healthy on LSU on Saturday but travels to Vandy and Florida this week. MSU would be about 18th out right now, but a win at Vandy would close that gap considerably.

Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 5)
Tennessee (No. 5)
Mississippi (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Florida (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing; third-to-last in)
South Carolina (last in)

Mid-Majors: Dayton was one of the toughest omissions this week, as was William & Mary. Despite doing well in my at-large model, both teams have poor conference records for squads in second- or third-tier leagues, and I haven’t observed the Committee showing a willingness to give teams like those the benefit of the doubt in recent seasons. Gonzaga’s loss to San Francisco should be damaging to the Bulldogs, though Gonzaga tends to get a one- or two-seed boost every year.

Wichita State continues to win and appears to be the latest second-best Missouri Valley team that will not get into the NCAA Tournament. Illinois State and Creighton each had strong arguments in 2008 and 2009 respectively, but neither was deemed to have a critical mass of quality wins to get the nod. With their strongest non-conference win over Texas Tech, the Shockers have an even less compelling case than their predecessors.

Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Brigham Young (No. 4)
Gonzaga (No. 6)
Temple (No. 4)
Rhode Island (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 7)
Xavier (No. 7)
Butler (No. 7)
UAB (No. 8)
UNLV (No. 8)
Saint Mary’s (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Siena (No. 10)
Charlotte (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Richmond (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Utah State (No. 12)
Cornell (No. 12)
Dayton (last out)
San Diego State (fourth-to-last out)
William & Mary (fifth-to-last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (sixth-to-last out)
Wichita State (eighth-to-last out)