Three of top five Big East teams are true surprises

If you can remember back to the middle of October, you probably recall that the Big East preseason projections, courtesy of the coaches’ expectations, show only a faint resemblance to the standings on this day. Most notably, three teams — Syracuse, Marquette and Pittsburgh — have far outperformed their respective sixth-, ninth- and 12th-place projections.

 

It’s hard to blame the coaches for placing each team where they did. In fact, I even thought Syracuse was picked too high (not a shining moment for me). All three teams lost at least four key pieces from top-20 teams. The Orange lost its top three players in terms of minutes and usage — Jonny Flynn, Eric Devendorf and Paul Harris — plus rotation big Kris Ongenaet. Pittsburgh lost its top three players in terms of minutes and usage — Sam Young, DeJuan Blair and Levance Fields — plus another starting forward, Tyrell Biggs. Marquette lost three of its top four players in terms of minutes and usage — Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews and Dominic James — plus its tallest player and sixth-highest minutes man, Dwight Burke.

 

There are several ways a team can rebuild from that, but these three went beyond rebuilding. Despite the personnel losses, Syracuse is the best team in the conference a year after slotting in somewhere in the fifth to seventh range. Pittsburgh has merely slipped from the league’s best team — according to efficiency margin in conference last season — to its fourth or fifth. Marquette has gone from the same fifth-to-seventh mire that the Orange found itself in last year to fourth or fifth with the Panthers. And this is in a league that is probably better top to bottom than it was last season. Read More »


Despite painful defeat, Marquette opening eyes with fast start

Marquette’s stunning defeat to Florida State, 57-56, in Sunday’s final of the Old Spice Classic at the Milk House in Lake Buena Vista, Fla., will take a lot of the sheen off a positive start, but it doesn’t entirely undermine Marquette’s performance in November.

 

Having lost four starters from last year’s team and then suffering two more significant injuries before the calendar even flips to December, Marquette figured to have struggles against a strong field on Thanksgiving weekend. Until the final minutes of the final game, though, the Golden Eagles were terrific. On Thanksgiving Day, Marquette held off a couple of challenges from a talented Xavier team to win, 71-61. The next day against a then-unbeaten Michigan team, MU did whatever it wanted on offense en route to a 79-65 win.

 

In the final on Sunday, Marquette built a 17-point lead with just more than 15 minutes left against a Florida State team that, like the previous two opponents, is considered a likely NCAA Tournament team. Marquette, of course, is not — or at least was not. FSU made a furious comeback as the Golden Eagles went cold, especially from the free-throw line. The loss — Marquette’s third straight in in-season tournament finals — stings, for sure, but MU fans have to hope that the showing this weekend is a sign that Buzz Williams’ bunch can make it five straight NCAA Tournament appearances for the school.

 

In order to fully appreciate the quality of Marquette’s start, it’s important to consider what last year’s No. 6-seeded team lost. The Three Amigos — Dominic James, Wesley Matthews and Jerel McNeal — combined to win 94 games in four years in Milwaukee. That includes four double-digit-victory seasons in the school’s first four years in the rugged Big East. It also includes four NCAA Tournament berths and two excruciating second-round defeats in the last two years. Read More »


Predicting many future events in one large analysis

Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:

 

ACC
Big 12
Big East
Big Ten
Pac-10
SEC
Mid-Majors

 

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

 

ACC

 

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »