Writing nice things about two Pac-10 teams

After two years in which the best Pac-10 players were also the best players in the nation, everyone knows the struggles the league has suffered this season. There’s no reason to post the litany of embarrassments the Pac-10 has suffered this season, as the conference has become a national punchline. Lost, though, in all of the giggles and putdowns are the California Bears.

 

Mike Montgomery’s team completed a home sweep of the Washington schools with a 16-point win over Washington State on Saturday. Two nights earlier, the Bears were even more impressive, never allowing UW in the game in a 12-point victory featured on ESPN’s “Duke plays UNC for the first time” Week. That win avenged a 15-point loss in Seattle, a Jan. 16 game that wasn’t even that close.

 

Now 9-4 in conference and 17-8 overall, the Bears are on their way to a Pac-10 regular-season title and a 20-win season despite playing one of the dozen toughest schedules in the nation. Cal’s problem in getting into the NCAA Tournament is partly its own fault. The Bears have yet to beat a likely NCAA Tournament team, going 0-4 against Syracuse, Ohio State, New Mexico and Kansas outside of conference. And, since the Pac-10 is down this season, Cal’s nine wins against eight different league members may fail to sway the Selection Committee. Read More »


Bracket Junkie: Big 12 is back to Big Eight

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Bracketing Challenges: This bracket came together well, but there were still a few challenges. Most notably, any of the last three teams in the field could easily be omitted. South Carolina, Texas Tech and VCU have thin cases, but I found them marginally more compelling than Mississippi, Florida, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and Louisville. If the bracket were announced today, I would not be very confident in those final three teams.

 

The other challenge continues to be in filling out the top four seedlines. Finding the last two No. 3 seeds was particularly difficult with the poor play of Texas and after Wisconsin’s home defeat to Illinois. Still, the full-season profiles of those two teams remains stronger than Vanderbilt, Gonzaga and the others on the No. 4 seedline. Read More »


Seton Hall’s rebounding improvement must continue vs. Cuse

The schedule-makers did Seton Hall no favors with Big East openers against West Virginia and Syracuse. On Saturday at the Prudential Center in Newark, Bobby Gonzalez’s Pirates pushed undefeated West Virginia to overtime with a last-minute surge before succumbing, 90-84. It will take an equally strong effort to defeat also-undefeated Syracuse on Tuesday night.

 

Despite the loss to the Mountaineers, there was plenty of good news for Seton Hall fans based on the performance, news that should boost hopes at a big upset on Tuesday. The biggest bit of optimism stems from Seton Hall’s ability to hold its own — and thensome — on the glass against WVU.

 

The Pirates have been exploited on the defensive backboard during Gonzalez’s entire tenure thanks to a lack of size and frontcourt depth. But with Herb Pope, Jeff Robinson and John Garcia as a starting frontline, the Pirates can actually play three real frontcourt players at once. While it’s true that guards Jordan Theodore and Jamel Jackson both played more than Robinson and Garcia on Saturday, the 89 minutes that Seton Hall got out of the starting frontcourt plus Ferrakohn Hall meant that the Pirates actually matched up with the long, athletic Mountaineers. Holding West Virginia, an exceptional offensive-rebounding team to just a 28.6 percent rate on that glass is borderline phenomenol. WVU is fourth in the nation in offensive-rebounding rate at 43.3 percent. Read More »


Big East WIR: Pirates, Panthers avoid embarrassing defeats

In sum: It wasn’t always pretty, but the Big East emerged from the season’s first week unscathed with a 17-0 record. Seton Hall and Pittsburgh both narrowly escaped home losses on Friday night, while Providence nearly blew a 19-point lead in defeating Mercer on Sunday. All in all, it’s a good start for a league that figures to go through some growing pains in the pre-conference schedule.

 

Team of the week: South Florida. The opening win was a departure from the Bulls’ typical pre-conference play. For once, the offense was actually good.

 

Poss PPP eFG Turn Reb FTR
USF 63 1.06 0.55 0.21 0.26 0.32
SMU 63 0.97 0.47 0.19 0.29 0.21

 

The Bulls have not been a good shooting team for a while, but the difference in eFG was, basically, the margin of victory. Augustus Gilchrist’s 8-for-12, including a 3-pointer, was a big reason why the shooting efficiency was better. Chris Howard’s 6-for-6 from inside didn’t hurt either. We’ll learn a lot more about the Bulls in the week ahead. Read More »


Predicting many future events in one large analysis

Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:

 

ACC
Big 12
Big East
Big Ten
Pac-10
SEC
Mid-Majors

 

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

 

ACC

 

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »


Bracket Junkie: The ever-receding bubble

 

Bracketing challenges: The most difficult team to place in this bracket was Purdue. On Tuesday, the Boilermakers lost at Ohio State in overtime without their best player — Robbie Hummel. It’s the second time Purdue has lost a close game on the road without the sophomore star. Usually those losses would be discounted slightly with the expectation that Purdue will have a full-strength Hummel by the time March comes around. The problem with that assumption is that Hummel is suffering from a stress fracture in his back, an injury that won’t fully heal until the offseason. Hummel is expected to be day-to-day from here until Purdue’s final game of the season. Because of the chronic nature of the injury, I’m treating those losses as if they were full-strength losses — with a slight discount for the Penn State loss, because Purdue was without Chris Kramer for that game. Losing close road games to Penn State and Ohio State is not particularly egregious — certainly better than Michigan State’s home losses to Penn State and Northwestern — but Purdue would probably be listed as a No. 4 seed if doctors expected Hummel to be fully healthy by March. Instead, the Boilermakers are the top No. 5 seed on my board.

 

Note: San Diego State is in the field as an automatic bid from the Mountain West after winning at UNLV on Tuesday. The Aztecs would be right between Baylor and Southern Cal in the “Last In” list if they were considered an at-large.

 

The Bubble: The bubble was a little awkward this week because of several results in conference play. Even with San Diego State’s inclusion as an automatic, the standard for inclusion in the field on Friday feels less stringent than it did on Monday thanks to many losses by teams around the bubble. In the end, I’m very comfortable with the top 32 at-large teams. It’s the last two — Baylor and Michigan — that I could take or leave.

 

Michigan’s impressive win over Penn State put both teams right around the cut mark. Because of the Wolverines’ win Thursday and their more impressive play out of conference — wins over Duke and UCLA — they’re in and the Nittany Lions are out, not that it was necessarily and either/or proposition. Baylor is running out of reprieves. Scott Drew’s team has now lost four straight games, all against teams seeded No. 7 or better in this projection. Baylor now enters a stretch of five games — at Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, at Oklahoma State, at Iowa State — where the Bears will need to win at least three to stay in the field. Read More »


Teams that are better than you think they are

I don’t pretend to know what you think, so the headline was more of an estimation of general perception than an attempt to read minds. Here we are in the middle of January, and you’re probably guessing that you know about all of the nation’s best teams. The top-25s list a cross-section of what coaches or the press thinks, but few of these people are charged with following what happens across the entire college basketball landscape, and so they often have blind spots.

 

Because of the imperfection of the rankings system, there are still a few teams that have yet to get much national fanfare but figure to be players in their conferences and into March. Here are five teams that I think fit the bill: Read More »