Big East goliath casts a large shadow on Championship Week

If the Big East Tournament were a United States metropolis, it would be Atlanta. The five-day, 16-team, 15-game goliath sprawls across Championship Week from noon on Tuesday until almost midnight on Saturday, giving nary a breath to the other conferences tournaments trying to grab a bit of air in the league’s stifling wake.

 

It’s really the perfect setup for ultimate exposure. When the Big East Tournament starts on Tuesday, the only real competition for media attention is the Horizon, Sun Belt and Summit finals (unless you fancy some Atlantic 10 pre-quarters). By Friday and Saturday, when the other big leagues are giving fans their first tastes of quality games, the Big East trumps them with matchups of top teams in its semis and final. The Big East finally relents on Sunday for a few hours, but then comes the selection show, in which Big East teams are likely to make up at least an eighth of the field. The conference may not end up owning the NCAA Tournament, but it has property rights to most of this seven-day period of college hoops gluttony.

 

With an unrivaled media footprint — especially now that either ESPN2 or ESPNU is carrying the games on Second Division Day (Tuesday) — what can college hoops fans expect from the Garden this week? Read More »


Pitt’s ability to absorb departures continues to astound

On consecutive early-December nights, Pittsburgh and Connecticut left Madison Square Garden disappointed. On Tuesday, Dec. 8, Pittsburgh played its worst game of the season against a poor Indiana team. The Panthers shot just 37.1 percent eFG and fell by 10 in a game that was either unwatchable or barely so.

 

A night later in the Big East/SEC Invitational, Connecticut recovered from a terrible start to lead Kentucky through most of the second half. John Wall took over down the stretch, though, as the still-undefeated Wildcats knocked off the Huskies, 64-61.

 

Five weeks later, Pittsburgh and UConn got together at the XL Center in Hartford, and Pittsburgh remained undefeated in conference, topping the Huskies, 67-57, behind 19 each from Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker. It would have taken a lot of squinting and copious amounts of alcohol to see this coming five weeks ago.

 

Poss PPP eFG Turn Reb FTR
Pittsburgh 62 1.07 0.424 0.209 0.487 0.288
Connecticut 62 0.91 0.472 0.209 0.344 0.111

 

It’s not that we didn’t already see cracks in Connecticut in December. The primary transformation has come from Pittsburgh, so that’s on whom I’ll mostly focus. We all know how this team looks different from last year’s team. Sam Young, DeJuan Blair, Levance Fields and Tyrell Biggs have all departed and with them the core of last season’s Elite Eight and No. 1-seeded team. Read More »


Huskies show lack of shooters, depth in loss to Kentucky

Games between evenly matched teams are not very common in November and December, which is why Wednesday’s matchup between Connecticut and Kentucky was so interesting. Close games eliminate some of the static that comes between us and the data in a blowout. How much would he have played if it were close? Would he really have taken that shot in a tight game? Close games get rid of the need for such speculation.

 

In Kentucky’s 64-61 win over UConn at Madison Square Garden, we learned several things — or had them reinforced, depending on your perspective. The first relates to the types of shots each team likes to take, the second to the problems with Connecticut’s offense against good teams and the third to a contrast in depth. Let’s start with the advanced box.

 

Team Poss PPP eFG Turn Reb FTR
Kentucky 69 0.92 0.414 0.202 0.357 0.172
Connecticut 69 0.88 0.461 0.289 0.441 0.275

 

This point was pounded home by the television commentators, but it’s rare to see a college basketball game in which the 3-pointer had so little effect. The two teams combined to make just 4-of-18 3-pointers. Neither team attempted a 3-pointer on even 20 percent of its field-goal attempts. The national average is 32.5 percent.

 

The lack of 3-point attempts and makes is not a departure from how these teams usually play. Connecticut has not finished in the nation’s top 300 in 3-point-attempt rate since Ken Pomeroy began keeping these statistics for the 2003-04 season. This season, none of the 347 Division I teams come in lower than UConn’s 17.4 percent 3-point-attempt rate. So, 3-pointers on 11.8 percent of attempts is right in line. Read More »


Predicting many future events in one large analysis

Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:

 

ACC
Big 12
Big East
Big Ten
Pac-10
SEC
Mid-Majors

 

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

 

ACC

 

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »


West: Huskies and Tigers and Enberg – Oh, my!

Home to the most vulnerable No. 1 seed, the West Region should theoretically be the most wide-open. On the other hand, no team has been more dominant over the last two months than Memphis, but that was against a Conference USA schedule. Is Connecticut truly vulnerable? Are the Tigers truly dominant? Where does that leave Missouri, Purdue and Washington? We’ll try to approach answers to those questions and more in this West Region preview. (The Enberg reference in the headline is to the hopes that Dick Enberg will stay out West to announce the regional in Glendale, Ariz.)

 

Hurting puppies: The Connecticut Huskies are 4-3 in the seven full games they’ve played since Jerome Dyson went down with a right knee injury in UConn’s win over Syracuse on Feb. 11. With the exception of an 11-point win at Marquette in a game when the Golden Eagles lost Dominic James for the season, none of the Huskies’ results have been impressive. Read More »


Huskies showing championship pedigree

A couple of weeks ago, I had the skeleton for a column that was to consider whether Connecticut was a true national-title contender. I wondered, did this Jim Calhoun team have what it takes did hoist a third championship banner at Gampel Pavilion? It’s about 10 days later now, and the point seems practically moot.

 

Since then, the Huskies ended the nation’s longest homecourt winning streak against Notre Dame in South Bend. Then, after dismantling DePaul in Chicago, the Huskies avenged four straight home defeats to regional rival Providence with a 94-61 win on Saturday. The 33-point margin of defeat was the Friars’ largest — if my research is correct — since former-head coach Tim Welsh’s first Friars club lost to Saint John’s by 34 on Feb. 15, 1999.

 

Then, for the piece de resistance, Connecticut took its fresh No. 1 ranking into Louisville and throttled a top-10 Cardinals team, 68-51. So, the question now isn’t so much whether Connecticut is good enough to win it all but rather whether the Huskies should be considered the favorites. Read More »