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	<title>BaselineStats.com: College Basketball Stats and Analysis &#187; Jermaine Taylor</title>
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	<description>College hoops stats and analysis for the die-hard</description>
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		<title>Undermanned Stanford struggling for answers beyond Fields</title>
		<link>http://www.baselinestats.com/20091119/undermanned-stanford-struggling-for-answers-around-fields/</link>
		<comments>http://www.baselinestats.com/20091119/undermanned-stanford-struggling-for-answers-around-fields/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:43:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brendon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Pac-10]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Zimmermann]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Brown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Goods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brook Lopez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cal Poly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Central Florida]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Davidson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Shiller]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dwight Powell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foothill College]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jack Trotter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jarrett Mann]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeremy Green]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jermaine Taylor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Johnny Dawkins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Owens]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kenny Brown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Landry Fields]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lester Hudson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LSU]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mitch Johnson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oral Roberts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oregon State]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robin Lopez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[San Diego]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Santa Clara]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sisyphus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stanford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Curry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tennessee-Martin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trent Johnson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baselinestats.com/?p=1485</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I spent some time in Monday&#8217;s Pac-10 Week in Review detailing Oregon State&#8217;s slow start last weekend in Lubbock, Texas, but the folks in Corvallis have some company in woe 600 miles to the south. With three starters gone and another injured from his first team in Palo Alto, Johnny Dawkins&#8217; Cardinal has started 1-2 [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I spent some time in Monday&#8217;s <a href="/20091116/pac-10-wir-divergent-starts-for-beaver-state-teams/">Pac-10 Week in Review</a> detailing Oregon State&#8217;s slow start last weekend in Lubbock, Texas, but the folks in Corvallis have some company in woe 600 miles to the south. With three starters gone and another injured from his first team in Palo Alto, Johnny Dawkins&#8217; Cardinal has started 1-2 after a two-point loss to Oral Roberts on Wednesday night.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Stanford started the season with a difficult roadtrip to San Diego on Friday, where the Cardinal lost, 77-64. After returning home with a 70-53 win over Cal Poly, Dawkins&#8217; men lost, 83-81, to perennial Summit League contender Oral Roberts. Considering what Stanford lost, this start was not unexpected, but Cardinal fans had hoped for better, even in a transitional season.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>To understand the slow start, let&#8217;s gain some perspective. The Cardinal was built to win last season. Even after Robin and Brook Lopez went pro in the wake of Stanford&#8217;s Sweet 16 run and Trent Johnson&#8217;s departure to LSU, Stanford still returned three starters plus emerging Landry Fields. A 10-0 start against a mediocre non-conference disintegrated thanks to a 6-12 Pac-10 record. This was a team with fringe NCAA Tournament talent that wasn&#8217;t in the discussion in March.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>From that team, guards Anthony Goods and Mitch Johnson graduated as did forward Lawrence Hill and reserve guard Kenny Brown. Big forward Josh Owens was supposed to return alongside Fields, but he remains out with an undisclosed medical condition. Owens hasn&#8217;t been cleared for practice, and it&#8217;s unclear whether he will play at all this season.<span id="more-1485"></span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>That left Fields, sharp-shooter Jeremy Green, end-of-the-rotation shooter Drew Shiller and little-used guard Jarrett Mann as the four players around which Dawkins would build this year. That&#8217;s not a solid foundation for a successful season.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>To the returners, Dawkins has added Andrew Zimmermann, a transfer first from Santa Clara and then Foothill College (Calif.). He played sparingly at Santa Clara two seasons ago and brings some rebounding with his 6-foot-9 frame if not much else. Zimmerman and Jack Trotter, a 6-foot-9 sophomore barely used last year, are the starters in the frontcourt. Not surprisingly, Stanford has been exploited around the rim.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The one stat most indicative of how well a team is doing around the basket is 2-point percentage. If a team is shooting well from inside, it&#8217;s probably getting efficient offensive production from its frontcourt. If a team is defending the 2-pointer, that&#8217;s usually thanks to stern defense by the frontcourt around the rim.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>So far this season, Stanford is shooting just 46.9 percent on 2-pointers, while its opponents are converting at a 54.0-percent rate. In the two losses, opponents made 59.1 of all 2-point attempts (the national average is 48 percent). The weak play inside is a major and perhaps unsolvable issue for Dawkins, especially considering that the strength of opposing frontcourts will only improve in Pac-10 play.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table width="300">
<thead>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><strong>Poss/G</strong></td>
<td><strong>PPP</strong></td>
<td><strong>eFG</strong></td>
<td><strong>Turn</strong></td>
<td><strong>Reb</strong></td>
<td><strong>FTR</strong></td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="rowOdd">
<td >Opponents</td>
<td >72</td>
<td >0.99</td>
<td >0.509</td>
<td >0.218</td>
<td >0.247</td>
<td >0.220</td>
</tr>
<tr class="rowEven">
<td >Stanford</td>
<td >72</td>
<td >1.00</td>
<td >0.483</td>
<td >0.135</td>
<td >0.207</td>
<td >0.227</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The difference in eFG between Stanford and its opponents is entirely attributable to the gap in 2-point percentage and then some. Even though neither Stanford nor its opponents have done much on the offensive glass, the opposition still has the advantage there. Without Owens, Stanford has lost the primary advantage of the typical major-conference team over the typical mid-major team &#8211; a frontcourt with athleticism and length.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The poor start has taken the focus off of Fields&#8217; tremendous start. The senior leads the Cardinal in field goals and free throws made and attempted as well as offensive and defensive rebounding, blocks and steals. He&#8217;s done it all and done it efficiently, committing just four turnovers &#8212; to six assists &#8212; while maintaining a 51.9 eFG. Fields&#8217; usage rate is off the charts at 35.2 percent. For comparison&#8217;s sake, only Davidson&#8217;s Stephen Curry, Central Florida&#8217;s Jermaine Taylor and Tennessee-Martin&#8217;s Lester Hudson had higher usage rates last season.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Fields is in desperate need of help. The only other player who has a usage rate higher than Shiller&#8217;s 18.4 percent is Green with 26.3 (remember, the average is 20 percent). But Green, who has recently recovered from an ankle injury, has been very inefficient with those possessions, making just 4-of-15 2-pointers (26.7 percent) to contribute to a damaging 41.4 eFG. Mann (17.6 usage) and Trotter (8.9 usage) have been efficient in their limited opportunities to shoot and could probably benefit Stanford from being more active. By doing so, they&#8217;d take some of the load off of Green, who can&#8217;t handle what he has, and Fields, who will have a difficult time sustaining efficiency with that high usage as the competition improves.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Still, one is left with the feeling that there just aren&#8217;t enough answers at either end of the floor. Dawkins has Fields, who has star potential and has been forced into a position where he can&#8217;t help but make an All-Pac-10 Team. He also has the sophomore Green, a solid shooter overburdened by a lack of teammates to help out. And, finally, there&#8217;s the sophomore Mann, who has been a dependable pass-first point guard so far. Ideally, with a sharp-shooter and a pass-first point guard, Stanford would have one high-volume scorer beside Fields in the frontcourt. Owens won&#8217;t be that, even should he return, but Trotter and Zimmermann are merely taking up space right now.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Dawkins really needed to bring in impact players for this season with four seniors on last year&#8217;s team, but, as a new coach, Dawkins was unable to gain traction with the 2009 class. That will change next season with five recruits already signed, including 4-star center Dwight Powell and 4-star small forward Anthony Brown. Of course, while next winter&#8217;s arrivals and a potential Pac-10 title in football may bring solace to the hearts of Stanford fans, they don&#8217;t do anything for the senior Fields, who appears to have a Sisyphusian endeavor ahead.</p>
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		<title>C-USA WIR: Knights pierce UMass to lift league</title>
		<link>http://www.baselinestats.com/20091115/c-usa-wir-knights-pierce-umass-to-lift-league/</link>
		<comments>http://www.baselinestats.com/20091115/c-usa-wir-knights-pierce-umass-to-lift-league/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Nov 2009 02:40:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brendon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Mid-Majors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reviews/Previews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Arizona]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Auburn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ben Braun]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Central Florida]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Conference USA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elliott Williams]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Georgia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houston]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Isaac Sosa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jackson State]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jermaine Taylor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Pastner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Massachusetts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Doherty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Memphis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Miami (Fla.)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nevada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rice]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SMU]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas A&M]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tulane]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baselinestats.com/?p=1418</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In sum: Central Florida got the Conference USA&#8217;s season started off right with an impressive victory over UMass, but SMU missed a chance to knock off a Big East team later on Friday night. Memphis had no problems with Jackson State in the debuts of Josh Pastner and Elliott Williams. Also notable is Ben Braun [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><b>In sum:</b> Central Florida got the Conference USA&#8217;s season started off right with an impressive victory over UMass, but SMU missed a chance to knock off a Big East team later on Friday night. Memphis had no problems with Jackson State in the debuts of Josh Pastner and Elliott Williams. Also notable is Ben Braun and Rice going 3-0 on the weekend to match its entire win total from just two seasona ago. As a whole, the league went 13-4 across the opening weekend.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><b>Team of the week:</b> Central Florida. In the first game since Jermaine Taylor&#8217;s graduation, the Knights got to the line a ton and made a much higher percentage of shots than the Minutemen. That&#8217;s often a good recipe for success, and it was in the 17-point win.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<td><strong></strong></td>
<td><strong>Poss</strong></td>
<td><strong>PPP</strong></td>
<td><strong>eFG</strong></td>
<td><strong>Turn</strong></td>
<td><strong>Reb</strong></td>
<td><strong>FTR</strong></td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="rowOdd">
<td >UMass</td>
<td >73</td>
<td >0.92</td>
<td >0.420</td>
<td >0.164</td>
<td >0.330</td>
<td >0.130</td>
</tr>
<tr class="rowEven">
<td >UCF</td>
<td >73</td>
<td >1.15</td>
<td >0.609</td>
<td >0.219</td>
<td >0.328</td>
<td >0.309</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Individually, Isaac Sosa was the story. He shot 45 percent on 126 3-point attempts last season, and he hit 6-of-7 on Friday night. If we were wondering who would soak up some of the possessions that Taylor left behind, we&#8217;ve surely found part of our answer.<span id="more-1418"></span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Disappointing Performance:</strong> Southern Methodist. I went over SMU&#8217;s loss to USF in the <a href="/20091115/big-east-wir-pirates-panthers-avoid-embarrassing-defeats/">Big East Week in Review</a>, so I&#8217;ll be brief. There&#8217;s no shame in losing a close game to a Big East team, even a lower-tier Big East team at home. Still, in Matt Doherty&#8217;s fourth year, one would hope for better in the opener. After leading at the intermission, the Mustangs ran out of steam in the second half, outscored 38-29.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><b>Upcoming:</b> SMU has a chance to get right back at it on Monday when it hosts Texas A&#038;M. Memphis plays No. 1 Kansas in St. Louis on Tuesday. Tulane visits Miami (Fla.), and Rice visits Arizona on Wednesday, both C-USA teams looking for upsets. UCF takes on Auburn in a winnable game in Daytona on Friday and then hosts Niagara on Saturday. UAB hosts Georgia, and Houston visits Nevada on Saturday.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>UMass, USF look for opening success in C-USA arenas</title>
		<link>http://www.baselinestats.com/20091112/umass-usf-look-for-opening-success-in-c-usa-arenas/</link>
		<comments>http://www.baselinestats.com/20091112/umass-usf-look-for-opening-success-in-c-usa-arenas/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 04:17:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brendon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Big East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mid-Majors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reviews/Previews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[A.J. Rompza]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Crater]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Gurley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Arkansas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Atlantic-10]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Augustus Gilchrist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bamba Fall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Central Florida]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Howard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Lowe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cincinnati]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Conference USA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dayton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Derek Williams]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dominique Jones]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Florida Atlantic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jarrid Famous]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jermaine Taylor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keith Speraw]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luke Bonner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Massachusetts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Doherty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Mercer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North Carolina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P.J. Gaynor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul McCoy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Providence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rhode Island]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rice]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ricky Harris]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sean Carter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SMU]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stan Heath]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Temple]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Terrell Vinson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tony Davis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tony Gaffney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wake Forest]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baselinestats.com/?p=1368</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The season&#8217;s first weekend of games gives us an underwhelming slate, but there are still a few games you may want to keep your eye on, even if that just means reloading the online box score a few times. I&#8217;ll be giving you a couple of games of note for each night this weekend, starting [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The season&#8217;s first weekend of games gives us an underwhelming slate, but there are still a few games you may want to keep your eye on, even if that just means reloading the online box score a few times. I&#8217;ll be giving you a couple of games of note for each night this weekend, starting with Friday.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Massachusetts at Central Florida (7 p.m. ET):</strong> A pair of middling mid-majors go at it in Orlando on Friday night. For UMass, it&#8217;s finally time to put a terrible 2008-09 season in the rearview mirror. Last winter was nothing short of a disaster for a Minuteman team coming off of a 25-win season and returning an all-conference backcourt. What UMass did not return, though, was its coach, Travis Ford, who left for Oklahoma State. Folks in Amherst expected Ford to take UMass back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1998, but instead, he was helping those in Stillwater end a four-year drought. Derek Kellogg came in with an entirely new system, and the Minuteman never quite made the adjustment. A schizophrenic team, UMass started 1-6, later defeated Kansas, Dayton, Temple and Rhode Island, but still finished just 12-18.<span id="more-1368"></span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The poor year wasted the senior seasons of Chris Lowe, Luke Bonner and breakout star Tony Gaffney, but all-league guard Ricky Harris returns along with Wake Forest transfer Anthony Gurley and highly-touted recruit Terrell Vinson. Gurley was, for all intents and purposes, a failure in his first season in Amherst, showing the ability to hit an outside shot (his 56 makes was second on the team to Harris&#8217; 87) but do little else. The 6-foot-7 Vinson got an offer from Providence and was also recruited by Maryland and Cincinnati but wound up with Kellogg in the Atlantic 10. He will be asked to replace some of the rebounding Gaffney took with him as Vinson develops his offensive game. Oregon State transfer 6-foot-9 Sean Carter was active in a narrow exhibition win over Dowling (N.Y.) on Saturday and could give UMass a big boost in the frontcourt.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Central Florida has been one of the underrated mid-major winners since joining the Conference USA for the 2005-06 season, but the Knights&#8217; 7-9 conference record last season is their low-water mark. Despite Jermaine Taylor&#8217;s fantastic season &#8212; he was responsible for more possessions while on the floor than any other player in the nation &#8212; UCF was only mediocre on offense and even worse on defense. After starting 15-6 and 5-2 in conference and appearing poised for a postseason berth, UCF lost 8-of-10 &#8212; including a home loss to lowly Rice.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>With Taylor gone, there are a lot of possessions to be had, and, with 6-foot-7 senior Tony Davis ruled ineligible to play this season, it&#8217;s unclear who will step into the void for Kirk Speraw&#8217;s team. Sophomores P.J. Gaynor and A.J. Rompza were the most active offensive players in UCF&#8217;s initial game last week against St. Leo&#8217;s (Fla.).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>There don&#8217;t seem to be a lot of answers for Central Florida against a UMass team returning the type of all-league guard UCF is trying to replace. It may not foretell a hugely successful season to come, but I like the Minutemen to get off on the right foot with a road victory.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>USF at SMU (8:30 p.m. ET):</strong> In Year 3 of Stan Heath&#8217;s tenure, the Bulls return enough and add enough to be a real surprise in the Big East. First, the old. Dominique Jones is simply one of the best all-around scorers in the Big East. He also has a rare combination of distribution and care with the ball for a lead guard. The dependable but largely irrelevant Chris Howard returns as Jones&#8217; backcourt mate, and mid-year transfer Mike Mercer will also get plenty of opportunities to turn his exceptional athleticism into actual production. Anthony Crater, a transfer point guard from Ohio State, will be eligible by the end of December, and by then, Heath should know whether Crater&#8217;s a better option than Howard or Crater.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>USF&#8217;s frontcourt is also stacked with transfers. There&#8217;s Augustus Gilchrist, who had to sit out a semester last season after decommitting late from Maryland. Besides the ability to block shots, he showed little of the interior presence he was supposed to come to Tampa with, but that&#8217;s why freshmen become sophomores. Junior-college transfer Jarrid Famous could have a game to match his name, and he should be the No. 2 offensive option for Heath. Famous had 20 points, eight rebounds and six assists with no turnovers in a blowout win over Florida Southern in what Bulls fans hope is a sign of things to come. The more I type, the more I think that my 14th-place prediction was too conservative.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Matt Doherty is entering his fourth season as head coach at SMU &#8212; after the flameout at his alma mater, UNC, and a one-year rendezvous at Florida Atlantic &#8212; and the Mustangs haven&#8217;t won more than four conference games in any of his first three seasons. This season, everyone of import except shot-blocker Bamba Fall returns for Doherty, most notably the backcourt of Derek Williams and Paul McCoy. Neither player left the floor much last season out of necessity, and McCoy was voted to the C-USA all-conference third team thanks to his ability to score reasonably efficiently and to pick up steals at the other end of the floor. SMU, after a last-place finish last season, was bumped up to ninth in the preseason coaches poll this year.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>If Doherty is to succeed at SMU, one would figure that positive results would come by the end of Year 4. He has plenty returning, but only the next four months will tell us whether the players he&#8217;s brought in are good enough to win big, even in the Conference USA. They haven&#8217;t been so far.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Heath, on the other hand, has used USF&#8217;s Big East affiliation to be extremely aggressive in remaking his roster into something capable of competing in the Big East. He&#8217;s been able to attract the unsatisfied and the wayfarer to his program, and perhaps that all comes together this season with wins in conference &#8212; his teams are 7-28 against conference opponents over the last two seasons. He&#8217;s got two years to turn this roster into a contender before Jones leaves, and the next step on that journey is Friday night. Heath&#8217;s teams have not won a road opener since Dec. 7, 2004 when his Arkansas team defeated Missouri by 10.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><i>I&#8217;ll be back tomorrow with the games to look out for on Saturday and Sunday.</i></p>
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