November 9, 2009 –
by Brendon
Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:
• ACC
• Big 12
• Big East
• Big Ten
• Pac-10
• SEC
• Mid-Majors
With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.
ACC
Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »
Posted in National Perspective
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Tagged 2009-10 season preview, A.J. Ogilvy, ACC, Al Skinner, Al-Farouq Aminu, Alabama, Alonzo Gee, Andy Kennedy, Anthony Crater, Anthony Grant, Arinze Onuaku, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Augustus Gilchrist, Austin Freeman, Avery Bradley, Baylor, Ben Braun, Ben Howland, Big East, Big Ten, Bill Carmody, Bill Self, Bo Ryan, Bobby Gonzalez, Boston College, Brad Tinsley, Brandon Triche, Brigham Young, Bruce Pearl, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Carleton Scott, Cashmere Wright, Chandler Parsons, Chase Budinger, Chinemelu Elonu, Chris Johnson, Chris Warren, Chris Wright, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Conference USA, Connecticut, Cory Higgins, Courtney Fortson, Craig Brackins, Craig Moore, Craig Robinson, Creighton, Damion James, Dante Cunningham, Dar Tucker, Darryl Bryant, David Huertas, Dayton, DeJuan Blair, DeMarre Carroll, Demetri McCamey, Demontez Stitt, Denis Clemente, Deon Thompson, Deonta Vaughn, DePaul, Derek Glasser, Derrick Favors, DeShawn Sims, Devan Downey, Dexter Pittman, Doc Sadler, Dominique Jones, Duke, Dwayne Anderson, Dwight Lewis, Ed Davis, Elliott Williams, Ernie Kent, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Frank Haith, Frank Lickliter, Frank Martin, Fred Hill, Gani Lawal, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Greg Echenique, Greg McDermott, Greg Monroe, Greivis Vasquex, Herb Pope, Herb Sendek, Horizon, Howard Thompkins, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Isaiah Thomas, J.T. Tiller, JaJuan Johnson, Jake Kelly, Jamelle Cornley, James Anderson, James Harden, JaMychal Green, Jarvis Varnado, Jeff Bzdelik, Jeff Capel, Jeff Leo, Jeff Pendergraph, Jeff Peterson, Jeffrey Taylor, Jeremiah Rivers, Jermaine Beal, Jerome Dyson, Jerome Randle, Jerry Wainwright, Joe Mazulla, John Beilein, John Henson, John Jackson, John Pelphrey, John Riek, John Thompson III, John Wall, Johnny Dawkins, Jon Brockman, Jon Scheter, Jonny Flynn, Jordan Hill, Josh Owens, Jrue Holiday, Junior Cadougan, Justin Dentmon, Kalin Lucas, Kansas, Kansas State, Keaton Nankivil, Kemba Walker, Ken Bone, Kenny Boynton, Keno Davis, Kentucky, Keon Lawrence, Kevin Coble, Kevin O'Neill, Kevin Stallings, Klay Thompson, Kyle Singler, LaceDarius Dunn, Lance Stephenson, Landry Fields, Lazar Hayward, Leo Lyons, Leonard Hamilton, Lorenzo Brown, Lorenzo Romar, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, MAAC, Manny Harris, Marcus Thornton, Mark Fox, Mark Turgeon, Marquette, Marshon Brooks, Maryland, Memphis, Miami (Fla.), Michael Dunigan, Michael Snaer, Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Mike Davis, Mike Montgomery, Mike Rosario, Mike Singletary, Mikhail Torrance, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Mouphtaou Yarou, Murphy Holloway, Nebraska, Niagara, Nic Wise, Nick Calathes, Norm Roberts, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Oregon, Oregon State, Pac-10, Pat Knight, Patrick Christopher, Patrick Patterson, Paul Gause, Paul Hewitt, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Quincy Pondexter, Raymar Morgan, Renardo Sidney, Rick Barnes, Rick Jackson, Rick Stansbury, Rihards Kuksiks, Robbie Hummel, Roy Williams, Rutgers, Samardo Samuels, Scoop Jardine, Scott Drew, Scott Martin, Sean Miller, SEC, Senario Hillman, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, Sharaud Curry, Sidney Lowe, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Cal, St. John's, Stan Heath, Stanford, Stanley Pringle, Stanley Robinson, Sylvan Landesburg, Syracuse, Talor Battle, Tennessee, Terrico White, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Theo Robertson, Tim Abromaitis, Tim Floyd, Tom Crean, Toney Douglas, Tony Bennett, Travis Ford, Trevor Booker, Tubby Smith, Tulsa, Ty Abbott, Tyler Smith, Tyler Zeller, Tyrese Rice, Tyrone Nash, UCLA, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Vernon Macklin, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, WAC, Wake Forest, Washington, Washington State, Wayne Chism, Wesley Johnson, West Coast, West Virginia, Willie Warren, Wisconsin, Xavier, Zaire Taylor
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October 20, 2009 –
by Brendon
College athletes are distinguished by their class, and each athlete has a finite amount of time — generally four years — to contribute to a team. Because of the rotating nature of classes, graduations and the addition of new recruits, a season becomes quite discrete.
In individual sports like pro tennis and pro golf, the short offseason makes the idea of a 2008 season or a 2009 season functionally meaningless for all but record-keepers. One could make a similar case — if not a strong one — for professional soccer where many leagues run from August into the following May and include various cup competitions and breaks during the single season.
I bring this up in anticipation of analyzing who’s back and who’s new on the college basketball landscape for the 2009-10 season. When college basketball writers are formulating their previews, they consider how good a team was last year, how much that team lost and what new additions — redshirts, transfers and recruits — might improve the team’s fortunes. I’m going to do the same thing here, only with an attempt to put a finer point on it. Read More »
Posted in National Perspective, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged 2009-10 season preview, A.J. Price, Arizona, Arizona State, Big East, Big Ten, Chase Budinger, Craig Austrie, Craig Robinson, Dar Tucker, Dean Oliver, DeJuan Blair, DeJuan Summers, DePaul, Dwight Burke, Earl Clark, Eric Devendorf, Georgetown, Hasheem Thabeet, Illinois, Jake Kelly, James Harden, Jeff Adrien, Jodie Meeks, Jon Brockman, Jonny Flynn, Kansas, Ken Pomeroy, Levance Fields, Marcus Thornton, Marquette, Nick Calathes, Oregon State, Pac-10, Paul Harris, Pittsburgh, Poss/100, Providence, SEC, Syracuse, Tennessee, Tyrell Biggs, Washington
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March 23, 2009 –
by Brendon
In an opening weekend of “almosts,” it turned out that we almost had all of the top-four seeds advance to the Sweet 16. Only Cleveland State’s tip-to-buzzer beating of Wake Forest (predicted by Lukas last week) and Purdue’s last-minute win over Washington prevented a Tournament chalky enough for a pool cue. Over the next few days, we’re going to do some looking ahead and some looking back, and let’s start with a look at the weekend’s statistical storylines.
Chalk one up for balance: We mentioned in our previews last week that Florida State and Boston College out of the ACC were two teams on opposite spectrums. FSU was the all-defense, no-offense team and BC the all-offense, no-defense team among the major-conference squads in the Tournament. Both tasted defeat against lower-seeded teams in the First round on Friday. Read More »
Posted in National Perspective, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Arizona State, Boston College, Demar DeRozan, Dominic James, Florida State, James Harden, Jerel McNeal, Marquette, Missouri, Southern Cal, Wesley Matthews, Wisconsin
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March 18, 2009 –
by Lukas
Welcome to your 2009 March Madness region of contrasting styles. Get ready for some fireworks and several battles for which team can control the tempo. Six of the top seven seeds have elite offenses. In fact they comprise half of the top-12 most efficient offenses in the country. Just for good measure, you’ve also got the two teams in the tournament that have the largest discrepancy between their horrific offense and lock down defense.
How fast should we go? Consider these Second Round matchups that all have a good chance of occurring with their national rank in possessions-per-game in parenthesis:
North Carolina (7) vs. Butler (286)
Gonzaga (88) vs. Illinois (283)
Syracuse (32) vs. Arizona State (333)
Oklahoma (94) vs. Michigan (267)
Tempo-free statistics help us understand these teams on a comparable level, but with such large gaps between the fast and the slow it will be interesting to see if any teams get thrown off its game. UNC’s secondary break tends to move at express speed no matter who the opponent is, so it’s safe to say that the other team is going to have to make an adjustment if they aren’t used to the pace. The looming Syracuse vs. Arizona State matchup is the most interesting out of these, and pits the two teams most equal in talent and ability to win. Read More »
Posted in National Perspective, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Akron, Arizona State, Butler, Clemson, Gonzaga, Illinois, James Harden, LSU, March, Michigan, Morgan State, NCAA Tournament, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Radford, South Regional, Stephen F. Austin, Syracuse, Temple, Western Kentucky
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February 6, 2009 –
by Brendon
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Bracketing challenges: The most difficult team to place in this bracket was Purdue. On Tuesday, the Boilermakers lost at Ohio State in overtime without their best player — Robbie Hummel. It’s the second time Purdue has lost a close game on the road without the sophomore star. Usually those losses would be discounted slightly with the expectation that Purdue will have a full-strength Hummel by the time March comes around. The problem with that assumption is that Hummel is suffering from a stress fracture in his back, an injury that won’t fully heal until the offseason. Hummel is expected to be day-to-day from here until Purdue’s final game of the season. Because of the chronic nature of the injury, I’m treating those losses as if they were full-strength losses — with a slight discount for the Penn State loss, because Purdue was without Chris Kramer for that game. Losing close road games to Penn State and Ohio State is not particularly egregious — certainly better than Michigan State’s home losses to Penn State and Northwestern — but Purdue would probably be listed as a No. 4 seed if doctors expected Hummel to be fully healthy by March. Instead, the Boilermakers are the top No. 5 seed on my board.
Note: San Diego State is in the field as an automatic bid from the Mountain West after winning at UNLV on Tuesday. The Aztecs would be right between Baylor and Southern Cal in the “Last In” list if they were considered an at-large.
The Bubble: The bubble was a little awkward this week because of several results in conference play. Even with San Diego State’s inclusion as an automatic, the standard for inclusion in the field on Friday feels less stringent than it did on Monday thanks to many losses by teams around the bubble. In the end, I’m very comfortable with the top 32 at-large teams. It’s the last two — Baylor and Michigan — that I could take or leave.
Michigan’s impressive win over Penn State put both teams right around the cut mark. Because of the Wolverines’ win Thursday and their more impressive play out of conference — wins over Duke and UCLA — they’re in and the Nittany Lions are out, not that it was necessarily and either/or proposition. Baylor is running out of reprieves. Scott Drew’s team has now lost four straight games, all against teams seeded No. 7 or better in this projection. Baylor now enters a stretch of five games — at Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, at Oklahoma State, at Iowa State — where the Bears will need to win at least three to stay in the field. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Arizona, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Baylor, Ben Howland, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Bo Ryan, Boston College, Brigham Young, Bruce Pearl, Butler, Chase Budinger, Chris Kramer, Cincinnati, Clemson, Connecticut, Davidson, Dayton, Derek Glasser, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, James Harden, Jay Wright, Jerome Randle, Kansas, Kansas State, La Salle, Louisville, LSU, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mike Montgomery, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Missouri, Mountain West, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, Pac-10, Patty Mills, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Robbie Hummel, Rutgers, Saint Joseph's, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, SEC, Siena, South Carolina, Southern Cal, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Tom Izzo, Tywon Lawson, UNLV, Utah, Utah State, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Xavier
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February 1, 2009 –
by Brendon
I’ve watched more Pac-10 basketball this season than in any other. The cynic would snark that I picked a poor year to get involved with this conference, that last season was the golden year of this decade for the conference. But I am thoroughly pleased with my decision to devote more time to following the Pac-10. I enjoy the league’s balance, its unlikely results, the way the schedule flows predictably and how everyone plays everyone else home-and-home. I love the travel partners and how all the games or on Thursday and the weekend. And with all I’ve been watching and loving, I have a lot to write about the league, which is now at exactly the halfway mark of the conference schedule.
Since everyone’s played everyone else once each, it’s fair to compare the teams’ efficiencies and draw sweeping conclusions based on them:
| Team |
W |
L |
Off Eff |
Def Eff |
Diff. |
| UCLA |
7 |
2 |
1.190 |
1.025 |
+.165 |
| Washington |
7 |
2 |
1.159 |
1.017 |
+.142 |
| Arizona State |
5 |
4 |
1.090 |
1.006 |
+.083 |
| Southern Cal |
6 |
3 |
1.052 |
0.992 |
+.060 |
| California |
5 |
4 |
1.054 |
1.040 |
+.014 |
| Arizona |
4 |
5 |
1.027 |
1.039 |
-.012 |
| Washington State |
4 |
5 |
0.990 |
1.020 |
-.029 |
| Stanford |
3 |
6 |
1.038 |
1.100 |
-.061 |
| Oregon State |
4 |
5 |
0.968 |
1.122 |
-.154 |
| Oregon |
0 |
9 |
0.939 |
1.146 |
-.207 |
Read More »
Posted in Pac-10
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Tagged Alfred Aboya, Arizona, Arizona State, Barack Obama, Ben Howland, California, Chase Budinger, Craig Robinson, Darren Collison, Demar DeRozan, Derek Glasser, Dick Bennett, Ernie Kent, Herb Sendek, Isaiah Thomas, James Harden, Jeff Pendergraph, Joevan Catron, Johnny Dawkins, Jon Brockman, Josh Shipp, Jrue Holliday, Klay Thompson, Lorenzo Romar, Malik Hairston, Marcus Johnson, Matthew Bryan-Amaning, Michael Dunigan, Mike Montgomery, Oregon, Oregon State, Quincy Pondexter, Rihards Kuksiks, Russ Pennell, Southern Cal, Stanford, Taj Gibson, Tajuan Porter, Tim Floyd, Tony Bennett, UCLA, Washington, Washington State
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January 22, 2009 –
by Brendon
Fatigued after a long night of basketball-watching and writing, I’ll try to keep tonight’s edition of “The Nights in Hoops” brief despite a full slate of action.
The biggest story of the night was the fall of the last of the unbeatens. Virginia Tech went to Winston-Salem and knocked off Wake Forest, 78-71, built primarily around good 2-point shooting (19-for-29, 65 percent) and 37 free-throw attempts. Despite making just 22 of those freebies, the Hokies were able to come away with the victory. The 2-point performance was especially notable against Demon Deacons team that entered the game 10th in the nation at 2-point defense (40.4 percent). Read More »
Posted in Reviews/Previews
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Tagged A.J. Price, ACC, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Blake Griffin, Brigham Young, Butler, Clemson, Colonial, Connecticut, Danny Green, Darrin Horne, Deon Thompson, Duquesne, Florida, Florida State, Frank Haith, George Mason, Georgetown, Horizon, Illinois State, Iowa, James Harden, Jarvis Varnado, Jeff Pendergraph, Jodie Meeks, Jonathan Kale, Kansas State, Keno Davis, Kentucky, LaceDarius Dunn, Louisville, LSU, Marcus Thornton, Matt Janning, Miami (Fla.), Michigan State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Missouri Valley, Nebraska, North Carolina, Northeastern, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Pac-10, Providence, Randall Hanke, Rhode Island, Richmond, Russ Pennell, Rutgers, Saint Joseph's, SEC, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, South Carolina, Southern Cal, Tasmin Mitchell, Terrence Williams, Travis Ford, Trent Johnson, Tyler Hansbrough, UNLV, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, Wayne Ellington, West Virginia, Wichita State, Wink Adams, Wisconsin, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Zam Frederick
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January 18, 2009 –
by Brendon
In his first three conference road games as a collegian back home in LA, Arizona State star James Harden had lost three times to USC and UCLA by a total of 59 points. The low point came on Thursday night when Harden had his worst shooting performance as a collegian, missing all eight of his field-goal attempts in the Sun Devils’ 14-point loss to USC. With the likelihood that Harden is playing his last season in college, Saturday afternoon’s game at Pauley Pavilion represented the last chance for the sophomore to go to a Pac-10 opponent’s home gym and win in his hometown. He did not disappoint. Read More »
Posted in Game of the Night, Pac-10
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Tagged Alfred Aboya, Arizona State, Ben Howland, California, Darren Collison, Derek Glasser, efficiency, Herb Sendek, James Harden, Jeff Pendergraph, Josh Shipp, Jrue Holiday, Kevin Love, Lorenzo Mata-Real, Michael Roll, Nikola Dragovic, Pac-10, pace, points per possession, Rihards Kuksiks, Seth Davis, Stanford, Ty Abbott, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State
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