Predicting many future events in one large analysis

Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:

 

ACC
Big 12
Big East
Big Ten
Pac-10
SEC
Mid-Majors

 

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

 

ACC

 

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »


Bullet Points: On NDU’s lofty ranking and the definition of ‘elite’

I had written most of a full on article on the Marquette-Notre Dame, but I realized I didn’t have that many new or interesting things to say about it, especially about the Irish. So, instead, I’m going to do one of those lazy, bullet-point-itemed pieces — one that will include topics beyond Marquette-Notre Dame, the kind of stories that get the worn-out baseball beat writer through the dog days of summer (not that I’m worn out).

 

• I’m not sure that fans around the country realize how dire a situation Notre Dame is in. The Coaches Poll still assigned a little number next to the Irish this week despite a third straight loss on Saturday to Connecticut, which indicates to most that NDU has nothing to worry about. Most prognosticators — you can see BaselineStats.com’s projection listed under “Base” — still had the Irish in the field entering Monday’s matchup with Marquette, and five projectors who put who new brackets on Monday even had Notre Dame at a No. 6 seed or higher. I think they’re wrong. Read More »


Teams that are better than you think they are

I don’t pretend to know what you think, so the headline was more of an estimation of general perception than an attempt to read minds. Here we are in the middle of January, and you’re probably guessing that you know about all of the nation’s best teams. The top-25s list a cross-section of what coaches or the press thinks, but few of these people are charged with following what happens across the entire college basketball landscape, and so they often have blind spots.

 

Because of the imperfection of the rankings system, there are still a few teams that have yet to get much national fanfare but figure to be players in their conferences and into March. Here are five teams that I think fit the bill: Read More »