West Virginia: The Mountaineers’ 98-95 overtime loss at Pittsburgh was the most excusable of the defeats suffered by the Big East’s top four on this holiday weekend, but it was also West Virginia’s second-straight loss. It may come as a surprise to some that it’s WVU’s defense and not its offense that has been mostly to blame in the team’s five defeats.

You can see that West Virginia is allowing 0.085 points per possession more than it is scoring in its five losses. The main culprit is field-goal defense. Despite the Mountaineers’ notable length, they are allowing opponents to make 40 percent of their 3-pointers and 57 percent of their 2-pointers in these defeats. For the season, West Virginia is ahead of only the comparatively tiny Marquette and Providence squads in 2-point defense among Big East teams.

Also notable is West Virginia’s proclivity for putting its opponents on the foul line. Some of that is fouling late in games to try to come back, but a lot of it is just being foul-prone. I’ve written before about the link between a team’s willingness to foul and its ability to force turnovers, but WVU is not getting a consistent turnover payoff from its many fouls. An inability to force turnovers combined with putting opponents on the line and allowing a high percentage of makes from the field means that West Virginia is getting far too few stops for a team with eyes on a run to the Final Four.

Syracuse: I wonder how we’ll look back on the Orange’s 66-60 loss to Louisville come in the end of the season. There’s a decent chance that the most important effect of it was to get Louisville into the NCAA Tournament. The Orange still looks a likely No. 1 seed and remains favored to win the Big East regular-season title.

What have we really learned about Syracuse in the last two games — including the narrow and controversial victory over Connecticut — that was underexposed previously? John Gasaway shows that in the highly-offensive Big East, Syracuse actually has been quite mediocre on offense, at least in conference games:

That’s right — Syracuse has been about as good on offense as Providence and Pittsburgh in conference play, and, if you use the RPI, Syracuse has played an easier conference schedule than both teams. To score 1.08 points per possession might be quite an achievement in a conference where scoring wasn’t so prevalent — like the ACC or Big Ten — but the Big East average is 1.06 in conference games. The Orange is not the offensive juggernaut you may have been led to believe.

The primary problem is turnovers. Andy Rautins, Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine all have unacceptable turnover rates, and not even the forwards can keep their rates below 18 percent. Among major-conference teams, only Georgia, North Carolina and Rutgers have allowed a possession to be stolen from them as often as Syracuse has. None of those teams will even be playing in the NCAA Tournament.

The loss to Louisville wasn’t caused by turnovers — though SU had 12 — or poor free-throw shooting from bigs Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku — they combined to take only two free throws; instead, Syracuse was bullied inside. Louisville hit 57.7 percent of its 2-pointers against the third-best 2-point defense in the Big East. The thing is, Louisville only attempted 26 2-pointers, as the Cards were much more willing to jack up 30 threes against Syracuse’s zone. The Cards only hit 30 percent, an ideal figure that should have led to a Syracuse victory, but the Orange could not close out possessions, which leads us to the potentially fatal flaw of the 2-3 zone: defensive rebounding.

Louisville had 38 missed shots open for rebounding and snagged 18 of them. Samardo Samuels and Jared Swopshire each had four offensive rebounds; Rakeem Buckles grabbed three more. It’s unlikely that a defense is going to be excellent at every aspect of defending, but it’s in games where the relative mediocrity of the offense is exposed that the Achilles’ heel of the defense becomes more problematic.

Georgetown: Rutgers’ offense is the third worst in the Big East in conference, scoring 0.97 points per possession. Georgetown’s defense is tied for the third best in conference, allowing 1.03 points per possession. Somehow Rutgers managed to score 1.14 points per possession to come up with the unlikely, 71-68 victory in Piscataway. Georgetown’s fatal flaw: turnover differential.

The Hoyas currently have the 12th-worst turnover differential of the 73 major-conference teams. Here’s a list of the major-conference teams that — like Georgetown — rank outside the national top 200 in both turnovers forced and turnovers committed: Iowa, Rutgers, Georgia, Southern Cal. That is not a list where one would expect a top seed to find itself.

Against Rutgers, Georgetown committed 14 turnovers and forced just eight. That difference – plus some big 3-pointers by RU — allowed the Scarlet Knights to make up for shooting a worse percentage and getting fewer rebounds than the Hoyas.

Turnover differential is not a new problem for Georgetown under John Thompson III. With the exception of the 2005-06 team, JT3’s offenses have always had turnover problems. A lot of that has to do with the number of passes in each offensive set. Teams that pass more — especially on the interior — and run longer offensive sets tend to turn the ball over more. On defense, last year’s team was the anomaly in that it actually forced turnovers. That team was led by the thieving of Jessie Sapp and Greg Monroe, but Sapp is now gone and Monroe isn’t picking up steals as frequently this season.

This turnover disparity forces Georgetown to be extra efficient everywhere else, especially since Georgetown is not a dominant or even a proficient rebounding team. The combination of mediocre rebounding and a poor turnover differential means that GU’s opponents are getting more shots than the Hoyas are.

Rutgers attempted six more free throws and one more field goal than Georgetown. For the season, opponents have attempted 96 more field goals than Georgetown. Despite attempting 96 more, opponents have 87 fewer makes, since the Hoyas are that good at making shots and forcing opponents to miss. What this creates, though, is a narrow margin for error, one that could be devastating against a quality opponent in the NCAA Tournament.

Villanova: Like Syracuse in its narrow victory over Connecticut on Wednesday, there were worrying signs for Villanova on Saturday in a win over Providence. The Friars, undermanned and underexperienced, hung with Villanova for 32 minutes, trailing by just four before a controversial personal foul/technical foul combination elimintated Friars’ fifth-year senior guard Sharaud Curry, who had 19 points on the day. Despite poor shooting from Providence, the Friars were able to hang in before losing by 11 thanks in part to Villanova’s overaggression on defense.

The Wildcats are now notorious foulers. Their games typically take more than two hours, 20 minutes to complete. Jay Wright has a deep bench, and so foul trouble isn’t as much of a worry, although Antonio Pena’s disqualifications do hinder VU on the interior. Against a Friars team not known for its ability to get to the rim and draw contact, Villanova still committed 23 fouls and allowed 33 free-throw attempts, this a week after Georgetown attempted 50 free throws in a 103-90 Villanova defeat.

On Big Monday, it was more of the same. UConn attempted 44 free throws, making 35, and giving the Huskies a 19-point advantage at the foul line in an 84-75 UConn victory. Pena and Corey Stokes both fouled out. Much like Louisville’s win at Syracuse, Connecticut’s victory is surely a bigger positive for the Huskies than it is a negative for the Wildcats, but Villanova’s proclivity for committing fouls is reaching epic proportions.

Of major-conference teams, only Colorado and Washington send their opponents to the foul line at a greater rate than Villanova does. We can only pray that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee doesn’t matchup Villanova and Kansas State in the same bracket, because that game would have the potential of clearing three hours without any calls to the bullpen. At least Kansas State gets to the foul line more than any other team as it fouls its opponents. The Wildcats are just fourth in the Big East at getting to the line. In Big East play, opponents have gotten to the foul line 54 more times than Villanova has and scored 29 more points from the stripe.

If you’re looking for a recent example of a team with Final Four pedigree that fouled so much, you won’t find one. There were two Sweet 16 teams in 2008 with defensive free-throw-attempt-per-field-goal-attempt rates of greater than 46.0 (Villanova’s is currently at 49.7). That year, Western Kentucky (48.7) and, yes, Villanova (46.4) each made the Sweet 16 as No. 12 seeds despite being so foul happy. In 2007, Southern Illinois was a No. 4 seed and lost narrowly to Kansas in the Sweet 16 with an exact match (49.7) of VU’s FTA/FGA rate. In 2006, Billy Gillispie’s Texas A&M team won a game as a No. 12 seed over Syracuse with a rate of 48.5. That’s the extent of NCAA Tournament success for squads that even approach Villanova’s “foul”-ness since 2004.

Either Villanova must improve its ability to play defense without fouling, or it will risk losing big games at the foul line, ironic for a team that shoots free throws so well (eighth in the land at 75.8 percent). Either way, be sure to set your DVR to record at least an hour over in any game the Cats play for the rest of the season.

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: This bracket came together well, but there were still a few challenges. Most notably, any of the last three teams in the field could easily be omitted. South Carolina, Texas Tech and VCU have thin cases, but I found them marginally more compelling than Mississippi, Florida, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and Louisville. If the bracket were announced today, I would not be very confident in those final three teams.

The other challenge continues to be in filling out the top four seedlines. Finding the last two No. 3 seeds was particularly difficult with the poor play of Texas and after Wisconsin’s home defeat to Illinois. Still, the full-season profiles of those two teams remains stronger than Vanderbilt, Gonzaga and the others on the No. 4 seedline.

Moving In as At-large: Illinois, South Carolina, Texas Tech

Moving Out as At-large: Florida, Louisville, Mississippi

Moving In as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt)

Moving Out as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

On the Bubble: It wasn’t a good week for most teams around the bubble. Notre Dame, Minnesota, Louisville, Northwestern, Florida, Washington, Oklahoma State and Virginia Commonwealth all suffered damaging losses. Only two of those teams are in this projection. The Big 12 has taken yet another bid, this one ostensibly from the Big East, which has just five teams in the latest projection after the Cardinals’ wretched performance at St. John’s on Thursday night. There are now seven Big East teams within 20 spots on the bubble but all are on the wrong side of it. The Big Ten saw two teams suffer nearly crippling losses — Northwestern at Iowa on Wednesday, Minnesota at home to Michigan on Thursday — but Illinois defeated Michigan State and Wisconsin in the span of three days to leap into the field.

ACC: After a second-straight road win, Duke now appears destined for a No. 2 seed and could even pip a No. 1 seed with a dual ACC regular-season and conference championship. Wake Forest and Georgia Tech are also comfortably in the field and should view No. 4 seeds as achievable goals should they finish strong. Wake had a big overtime win in Charlottesville on Wednesday. At the same time, Georgia Tech was losing to Miami in Coral Gables.

The bubble picture is an interesting one, as Clemson and Florida State continue to jockey on the positive side of the bubble. The Tigers defeated FSU in Clemson on Wednesday. Maryland was off in the midweek and will travel to Durham on Saturday. The Terrapins remain just barely in the field despite a 6-2 conference record. With just two wins against top-50 teams, Maryland will have to knock off at least one of the four remaining top-50 teams on its schedule or risk omission.

The strangest case of any team fighting for an at-large spot may be Virginia Tech’s. Like the Terrapins, VaTech has a lovely conference mark (6-3) to go with a 19-4 overall record, but the Hokies are still on the outside looking in. If Seth Greenberg’s team does miss the NCAAs, it can blame a non-conference schedule ranked 336th most difficult of 347 teams. VaTech does have seven wins against top-100 teams but just one against the RPI top 50 — last Saturday’s home win over Clemson. With four more games against top-50 teams upcoming, VaTech will have plenty of chances to pad the profile, and the Hokies better take advantage.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 2)
Wake Forest (No. 5)
Georgia Tech (No. 7)
Clemson (No. 8)
Florida State (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Maryland (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (fourth-to-last out)

Big 12: I think it’s unlikely that the Big 12 gets eight teams in the NCAA Tournament, but right now it deserves all of them. Texas Tech has surprised most with its play of late — the Red Raiders have now won 4-of-6 after a one-point win at Oklahoma on Tuesday. The meat of the schedule is still to come for Pat Knight’s team, but Tech has four of its last seven at home.

Kansas appears poised to continue its reign atop the Big 12 after a commanding win in Austin on Monday. The Jayhawks have a three-game lead in the loss column and firm grasp on a No. 1 seed. Texas, meanwhile, has hit a crisis point. Rick Barnes has not found a proper mix of his immensely talented roster, and he is now looking up at the top seeds of the tournament. Kansas State is in better shape than Texas, especially with a couple of home games against weaker Big 12 teams — Colorado and Nebraska — coming up. Frank Martin’s team is likely to be favored in its next five games until a March 3 rematch with Kansas in Lawrence.

Texas Tech’s ascension has come as Oklahoma State slips closer to the cutline. The Cowboys have lost three in a row and now face a critical stretch — vs. Oklahoma, at Iowa State, vs. Baylor — where two wins are the minimum requirement. With Baylor and Missouri looking solid, OSU and Tech are the two Big 12 teams currently in the field who are most likely to be sad on Selection Sunday.

Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 3)
Texas (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 6)
Texas A&M (No. 7)
Missouri (No. 8)
Oklahoma State (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for conference balancing; sixth-to-last in)
Texas Tech (No. 12, third-to-last in)

Big East: The Big 12’s eight bids in this projection are approximately as astounding as the Big East’s five. These things have a way of working themselves out by mid-March, but the Big East bubble teams need to start winning. Of the seven Big East bubble teams, only one — Seton Hall — won on the midweek, and the Pirates were the bubble team furthest from the field before that victory and remain so.

USF, Cincinnati and Marquette were off in the midweek, and all face important tests this weekend. USF heads to Marquette for perhaps the biggest bubble contest anywhere this weekend. Cincinnati travels to Connecticut before heading to USF on Tuesday. Notre Dame hosts St. John’s, and Louisville travels to Syracuse before those two teams meet in the Bluegrass State on Wednesday. Finally, Seton Hall may be the most unlikely of the Big East’s Bubble Seven to make the NCAAs, but the Pirates host DePaul on Sunday before traveling to St. John’s next Tuesday. A 2-0 mark would bring Seton Hall to 6-7 in conference with plenty of winnable games remaining.

There are teams in the Big East that aren’t on the bubble, and four of them are right near the top of the field. Villanova’s win at West Virginia made the Wildcats’ stay on the No. 2 seedline a decidedly brief one. Syracuse managed to escape at home against Connecticut to stay the No. 2 overall seed. Truthfully, the Orange would probably need to lose twice to fall off the top line. WVU and Georgetown slot in as No. 2 seeds, although West Virginia is the last of that grouping and probably needs to win at Pittsburgh on Friday to stay there.

Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 1)
Georgetown (No. 2)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 5)
Cincinnati (last out)
Louisville (fifth-to-last out)
South Florida (seventh-to-last out)
Marquette (eighth-to-last out)
Notre Dame (10th-to-last out)
Connecticut (18th-to-last out)
Seton Hall (19th-to-last out)

Big Ten: Illinois has been undaunted by the increase in competition over the last week. The Illini’s offense — led by Demetri McCamey — has spurred a 2-0 stretch that brought Bruce Weber’s team from more than a dozen spots outside the field a week ago to 10th-to-last in the field in this projection. Fellow bubble brethren Minnesota and Northwestern cannot speak as proudly about their midweek performances, and neither is more than a longshot at this point — though the Gophers are the shorter of the longshots.

Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State could all finish from a No. 2 seed to a No. 5 or 6. The Boilermakers have the most impressive profile so far, the Buckeyes the least. But Evan Turner’s absence should continue to boost OSU’s seeding as long as the Buckeyes continue to play well. The big game of the weekend is on Sunday when Ohio State attempts to cool off the red-hot Illini in Champaign.

Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Wisconsin (No. 3)
Michigan State (No. 4)
Ohio State (No. 5)
Illinois (No. 9, 10th-to-last in)
Minnesota (20th-to-last out)

Pac-10: While the nation writes off the Pac-10 of unworthy of an at-large bid, California is trying to make sure that it secures one should a Pac-10 Tournament title not come the Bears’ way. Jerome Randle starred in a decisive victory over pretenders to the throne Washington on Thursday in Berkeley. The Huskies now must be nearly perfect to make the field, and the same could be said for both Arizona schools, which had little trouble sweeping the Oregon schools at home on Thursday.

Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (ninth-to-last out)
Arizona (16th-to-last out)
Arizona State (17th-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee are almost certain to make the field, and UK is looking good for a No. 1 seed, provided the Wildcats have at most two slip-ups from here on out. The Volunteers drilled the Vols on Tuesday in Nashville and can claim a top-four seed with continued quality play. Tennessee figures to end up more in the No. 6 or No. 7 seed area.

The SEC bubble is one of the harder to parse. South Carolina, Mississippi and Florida have borderline cases, but it’s the Gamecocks’ quality wins — Richmond, Kentucky, Florida, South Florida — that get them in right now. Mississippi’s 5-5 conference record in the weaker SEC division isn’t helping Andy Kennedy’s team either. Mississippi State got back in the mix with its home win over the Rebels on Thursday. The Bulldogs own two more losses against teams outside the top 100 (two) than wins over the top 25 (zero).

Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 4)
Tennessee (No. 6)
South Carolina (No. 13, last in)
Florida (second-to-last out)
Mississippi (13th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown: Let’s talk about Cornell. Peer pressure is the biggest reason why I bumped the Big Red from a No. 13 to a No. 12 seed. The Ivy League leaders are ranked in the top 25 and have appeared as high as a No. 7 seed in some projections, and my No. 13 seed was the lowest on the most recent Bracket Matrix. I have no doubt that Cornell is a good team, but I like my teams seeded on the first 10 or so lines to have beaten someone good. Cornell has a total of zero wins against the top 50 and three against the top 100. Cornell’s best three wins are over St. John’s, Alabama and Harvard, none of which is in the mix for an NCAA Tournament berth. In Cornell’s three games against teams with even modestly legitimate chances at making the field, the Big Red lost a close one at Kansas, lost by 15 at Syracuse and lost by 10 at home to Seton Hall. Does that look like a No. 7, 8, 9 or even 10 seed to you?

Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Gonzaga (No. 4)
Brigham Young (No. 4)
Northern Iowa (No. 5)
Butler (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7)
Temple (No. 7)
Xavier (No. 8)
UAB (No. 8)
Rhode Island (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Siena (No. 10)
Dayton (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 10, seventh-to-last in)
Utah State (No. 11)
UTEP (No. 11)
Charlotte (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
Virginia Commonwealth (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Cornell (No. 12)
William & Mary (sixth-to-last out)
San Diego State (11th-to-last out)
Wichita State (12th-to-last out)
Memphis (14th-to-last out)
Tulsa (15th-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.

It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.

Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference.

In the last two projections, finding a team to fill out the third seedline was the biggest problem, but Wisconsin’s victory over MSU vaulted the Badgers to a No. 3, eliminating that problem. The new problem was filling out the fourth seedline, where a half-dozen or more teams have good cases to join New Mexico, BYU and Baylor. I went with Ohio State because the Buckeyes seemed to fit the best, despite ranking just 22nd in the BTI seeding model. A bit of a bump for Evan Turner’s injury combined with OSU’s recent terrific play gives the Buckeyes the nod over Temple, Vanderbilt, Butler, Gonzaga, Tennessee and Northern Iowa.

Moving In as At-large: South Florida

Moving Out as At-large: Connecticut

Moving In as Automatic: Old Dominion (from at-large to automatic; Colonial), Lehigh (Patriot)

Moving Out as Automatic: George Mason (Colonial), Lafayette (Patriot)

On the Bubble: There was not a ton of movement from one side of the cutline to the other, with USF getting the big bump after Wednesday’s win at Georgetown, while UConn finally couldn’t justify its spot any longer after a sorry performance at Louisville. The last team in and last team out remained the same, as neither South Carolina nor Dayton played during the midweek. There were a couple of big moves from teams that had been well outside the field and are now knocking on the door. Notre Dame and Washington, with Thursday home wins against solid opposition, moved into the last 10 out.

ACC: Duke jumps back on to the No. 2 seedline after an impressive performance at home against Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils still have that ugly 1-4 road record, but seven wins against the top 50 — a total that is tied with Kansas for most in the nation — have a way of making the road mark easier to ignore. Three of Duke’s next four are on the road against teams that don’t appear to be headed to the NCAA Tournament, so the Blue Devils could pad the road record over the next 12 days.

The most interesting action in the ACC is happening at the bubble where Maryland’s road win at Florida State was a huge victory for the Terps’ chances and equally damaging to FSU. Gary Williams’ team is not comfortable, but it is in very solid shape thanks to a 5-2 conference mark. With six top-100 wins and two top-50 wins, FSU is still in decent shape, but home losses kill the RPI, and Leonard Hamilton’s saw his team’s fall to 44 after Thursday’s loss. Maryland hosts UNC, and FSU hosts Miami this weekend.

A little further from the cutline are Virginia Tech and Virginia, both of whom secured solid home wins against second-tier ACC competition this week. Both schools still have plenty of work to do to compensate for weak play out of conference — in VaTech’s case, that’s mainly due to a wimpy schedule. Virginia’s final nine conference games should be its toughest, starting with a home matchup against Wake Forest on Saturday. Virginia Tech hosts Clemson that same day.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 2)
Georgia Tech (No. 6)
Wake Forest (No. 7)
Clemson (No. 7, moved to No. 8 for bracket balancing)
Maryland (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Florida State (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing; third-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (18th-to-last out)
Virginia (20th-to-last out)

Big 12: The one thing you should notice about the Big 12 is just how comfortable its seven bids look. None of the seven teams are among the last 10 in, and that’s true even after Oklahoma State lost its second straight on Monday to Texas. There’s still plenty of time for OSU, Missouri or Texas A&M to play their ways out of the field, but nine conference wins should get each in.

Texas got back on track with a terrific second half in Stillwater on Monday, Kansas State blew out Nebraska in Lincoln, and Baylor had no trouble with Iowa State at home. Kansas remained undefeated after a win on Wednesday, but it took overtime to leave Boulder with the victory. All four teams are playing for seeding, although Baylor — at just 4-3 in conference — needs to be careful that it doesn’t get swept in its upcoming road games. Scott Drew’s team travels to A&M on Saturday and Nebraska on Wednesday.

Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Texas (No. 2)
Kansas State (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 4)
Missouri (No. 8)
Texas A&M (No. 8)
Oklahoma State (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for bracket balancing)

Big East: Georgetown’s home loss to South Florida dropped the Hoyas down a seedline, but Syracuse, Villanova and West Virginia all won comfortably. The real intrigue is taking place near the bubble where eight teams cannot be sure of their March fate.

Louisville got the win it needed at home against Connecticut, and the Cards are now halfway to the 10 league wins they’ll likely need to make the NCAAs. UConn is now in very tough shape. The winless week against Providence and Marquette will be what fans will point to if the Huskies fail to dance, and after their play in Louisville, it’s hard to see many more W’s coming from this bunch. At the very minimum, UConn needs to finish 5-3 in conference to have a decent chance at the Garden in March, and it will probably take a 6-2 mark to seal a bid. The Huskies still face four very difficult road games, including trips to Syracuse and Villanova.

Pittsburgh continued to slide with a weak second half at West Virginia on Wednesday. The Panthers are still in better shape than the other seven Big East teams fighting for 3-5 berths, but that gap is closing. The Panthers host Seton Hall, Robert Morris and West Virginia over the next week. The Pirates lost their second straight road game at Villanova on Tuesday.

I thought that Notre Dame’s loss to Rutgers last Saturday put the death knell in its realistic NCAA Tournament hopes, but the Irish made a surprising jump in my model with the win over Cincinnati on Thursday. UND has a very difficult upcoming schedule, and will probably need to finish 5-3, but there’s definitely still a chance. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is still in the field despite the fact that the Bearcats don’t have the look of an NCAA Tournament team. The Bearcats — still being propped up by non-league wins over Maryland and Vanderbilt — will have to win on the road if they hope to earn a bid, and they have four more chances. But first, UC hosts Syracuse on Sunday.

How could I have gotten this far and not mentioned USF, which is trying to hone in on Northwestern’s feel-good rooting interest? Two weeks ago, the Bulls had won just one Big East game on the road and had never won two straight league games. Stan Heath has now seen his team win two Big East road games and four straight in a fortnight, all without top post player Augustus Gilchrist. Irresistible scorer Dominique Jones has to be conference player of the year, right? The new road warriors travel to Notre Dame and Marquette on the next two weekends. A 10-8 finish and a win in New York will almost certainly get the Bulls in.

Finally, there’s Marquette, which avenged that loss at DePaul by defeating the Blue Demons by 11 in Milwaukee. MU is back to .500 in conference and doesn’t face a top-four Big East team the rest of the way. That means a lot of winnable games — but also tricky ones — starting Saturday in Providence against a Friars team that the Golden Eagles defeated by 30 on Jan. 17.

Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Georgetown (No. 3)
Pittsburgh (No. 7)
Louisville (No. 9)
Cincinnati (No. 10, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing; ninth-to-last in)
South Florida (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing; sixth-to-last in)
Notre Dame (third-to-last out)
Marquette (sixth-to-last out)
Connecticut (10th-to-last out)
Seton Hall (16th-to-last out)

Big Ten: I discussed most of the action surrounding the first four teams in the general bracket breakdown that leads this piece, so let’s get straight to the bubble. Illinois had a nice win at Iowa, and Northwestern pulled away from Michigan in the second half. Minnesota was off. The Illini have just completed their very generous early schedule, while the Wildcats have just begun the soft underbelly of its league schedule. Chances are all three teams meet somewhere around .500, but it’ll take at least 10 conference wins for any of these teams to dance.

The big game for the bubble teams this weekend is in Champaign where Illinois hosts Michigan State, and Bruce Weber’s team will try to prove that its improved 2-point defense wasn’t a product of a soft recent schedule. Minnesota tries to bounce back from an ugly loss to Ohio State with a trip to Penn State, and Northwestern hosts Indiana.

Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Wisconsin (No. 3)
Michigan State (No. 3)
Ohio State (No. 4)
Minnesota (seventh-to-last out)
Illinois (14th-to-last out)

Pac-10: California’s hopes of securing an NCAA Tournament bid before reaching Los Angeles for the Pac-10 Tournament took a major hit with a loss in LA at USC on Thursday night. Arizona, the team Cal entered Thursday tied with atop the league standings, had a tough loss at Washington, as top interior scorer Derrick Williams fouled out in just seven minutes. With those two results plus Arizona State’s win at Washington State and UCLA’s victory over Stanford, there is now a four-way tie atop the Pac-10 standings at 6-4.

Many people are assuming that the Pac-10 will only get one bid, and that may be true, but because it’s assumed to be true, most are ignoring the four teams in the league that can still earn at-large berths. Along with Cal and Arizona, Washington is now within striking distance after the win over the Wildcats, and the Sun Devils also have a puncher’s chance with a strong finish. ASU and UW meet in Seattle on Saturday in a critical game for both teams.

Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (fourth-to-last out)
Arizona (eighth-to-last out)
Arizona State (15th-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky has finally moved up to No. 4 in the BTI seeding model after a second straight quality win on Tuesday, this one against Mississippi. Tennessee narrowly escaped LSU, and Vanderbilt had a tough home win against Mississippi State. All three of those SEC East teams are comfortably positioned for an NCAA bid.

Elsewhere in the East, Florida got a much-needed road victory at Alabama. It was a game that UF probably could not afford to lose if it has hopes of getting the 10 conference wins that would assure a bid, though a 9-7 mark would still give the Gators a chance. South Carolina was on a bye and remained on the very edge of the field. The Gamecocks head to Tennessee on Saturday.

Out West, things continue to look sour for the Mississippi schools. MSU dropped its third straight road game by a combined 13 points in Nashville on Wednesday. With a trip to Gainesville on Saturday, the Bulldogs are in desperate need of a win or risk losing touch with the field. The Rebels dropped to 4-4 in conference after a 10-point loss in Lexington. That was expected — the killer was the Sunday home loss to Arkansas. Andy Kennedy’s team will have to avoid a similarly injurious defeat when it hosts Alabama on Saturday. MSU and Ole Miss meet in Starkville on Tuesday.

Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 5)
Tennessee (No. 6)
Mississippi (No. 11, fourth-to-last in)
Florida (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing; second-to-last in)
South Carolina (No. 13, last in)
Mississippi State (19th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: It’s becoming clear to me that the toughest part about seeding the upcoming tournament will be determining what to do with the glut top mid-major teams. Be it New Mexico, Butler, Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Siena or Cornell (along with many others), bracket projectors are going to have a hard time figuring out the appropriate place for each. In the past, selection committees have been wildly erratic in placing teams like this, sometimes missing the projectors’ consensus by 2-3 seedlines.

For instance, Gonzaga and Butler are both ranked in the top-15 in the Coaches Poll, but the two teams are running well behind that (24th and 27th respectively) in the BTI model. On the other hand, Northern Iowa was 22nd in the poll but is 16th in the BTI. Rhode Island and Xavier are unranked but are slotted 23rd and 25th (right with Butler and Gonzaga) in the BTI model. The NCAA Selection Committee is not a slave to public opinion, and it definitely favors my model over the polls, but the relationship is not as strong with mid-majors as with the big boys.

Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 4)
Brigham Young (No. 4)
Temple (No. 5)
Butler (No. 5)
Gonzaga (No. 5)
Northern Iowa (No. 6)
Rhode Island (No. 6)
Xavier (No. 7)
UNLV (No. 8)
UAB (No. 8)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Charlotte (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Richmond (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 10, seventh-to-last in)
Siena (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing)
Utah State (No. 12)
Cornell (No. 12)
Dayton (last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (second-to-last out)
San Diego State (fifth-to-last out)
William & Mary (ninth-to-last out)
Northeastern (11th-to-last out)
Wichita State (12th-to-last out)
Tulsa (13th-to-last out)
Memphis (17th-to-last out)

Expectations: This appeared to be a “hold-water” year for Illinois in the fall. Weber had lost solid distributor and defender Chester Frazier, spot-up shooter Trent Meacham and the versatile Calvin Brock from a team that achieved a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season.

The additions of two four-star guards, D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul, as part of a nationally-ranked four-player 2009 class seemed likely to prevent much regression as Weber awaits his most acclaimed class in 2010. In 2010-11, Richardson and Paul are to be joined by three of the nation’s top prep players, including small forward Jereme Richmond. Weber will also have his top three returners entering this season — Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale — back for their senior seasons. It would appear to be a fortuitous confluence of talent in what many expect will be the season of Illinois’ re-emergence as a Big Ten power.

And that brings us to this year, the year between. Fans rightly expect a repeat NCAA Tournament appearance in 2010, even if a deep run appeared unlikely at the beginning of the season. Losses to Utah, Bradley and Georgia out of conference were confusing in that they were juxtaposed to wins against Clemson and Vanderbilt, teams that are of a far higher caliber. The Big Ten season brought a 4-0 start, followed by three straight losses and now three straight wins. The 7-3 record is sexy, but that six of the wins have come against the leagues dregs — and the other was at home in overtime to Northwestern — hasn’t escaped anyone’s attention in Champaign. With the meat of the schedule ahead — expect Illinois to be the underdog in seven of its next eight games — let’s look at what’s gone right and what’s gone wrong for the Illini in 2009-10.

The offense is better: Along with Tisdale’s emergence as a top post scorer, Paul and Richardson have added offensive diversity to Illinois’ attack. McCamey has shot more often and improved his efficiency by making about four percent more of his 2- and 3-pointers. His combination of 2-point makes and assists means he’s not dissimilar from Evan Turner, though Turner is a bit better at each and has four inches on McCamey, which is much of why the Buckeyes star is a far better rebounder.

Richardson has been able to replace a lot of what Illinois lost with Meacham’s departure — efficient 3-point shooting — and Paul has shown a great willingness to eat up many possessions, even though his affiance (43.1 percent eFG) probably doesn’t warrant that many looks. Tisdale has become a dependable and proficient option in the post, and his free-throw shooting (84 percent) are a good match for a player who gets fouled a lot. Davis has plateaued after a breakout sophomore season, though he still remains a positive on offense.

It’s primarily for these reasons that Illinois has gone from 10th to sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency in the Big Ten. That’s the good news.

The defense is worse: One of the most difficult things about a statistical evaluation of a sport that doesn’t have very many discrete events — unlike baseball, for instance — is that it’s often hard to isolate the influence of an individual player on events, and that’s especially true of defense in basketball. Steals, blocks, fouls and defensive rebounding each gives us a piece to the puzzle, but those pieces don’t form a coherent whole. What we do know is this: Illinois’ defense has fallen from first to seventh in the Big Ten in adjusted efficiency.

The departed Brock and Frazier were two players known primarily for the things they did well besides score. Brock was a terrific offensive rebounder for his size and would grab his share of steals. Frazier was a strong distributor, and he, too, would get some steals. Indeed, Brock and Frazier were the two best thieves on the Illini team, and Illinois has seen its turnover rate damaged as a result. Paul would appear to have replaced most of the steals gap, but there is still a gap. The Illini are forcing about two fewer turnovers per game, a change that has dropped Illinois from fourth to eighth in the conference in percentage of opponents’ possessions that end in turnovers.

Illinois is a bit more liberal with fouls this season but also a bit better on the defensive glass, and those factors likely even out. The one thing that is hard to explain is why Illinois’ two-point defense has suffered this season. Illinois was one of the elite field-goal defensive teams in the country last season because of its ability to suppress percentages on both 2-pointers (35th in the nation, 44.1 percent) and 3-pointers (seventh, 29.6). This season, Illinois is again a dominant 3-point-defending team (17th, 29.3), but the 2-point defense has slipped (123rd, 46.5).

The question is why. A defense’s ability to hold opponents to low 2-point percentages is tied closely to the height and shot-blocking rates of the defense. Illinois is both taller and blocking more shots this year, and yet the 2-point defense is worse. Part of the problem is the ineffective height of Davis. At a lanky 6-foot-9, one would expect him to be a shot-altering presence, but he has just 11 blocks in 22 games.

But it’s not just Davis’ lack of blocked shots that are problematic. As I mentioned, Illinois is blocking more shots than it did last season, thanks mostly to Tisdale. Illinois has gone from fifth to fourth in the Big Ten in shot-block rate but third to eighth in 2-point defense. Something isn’t adding up.

When the pieces don’t add up, that’s when we see coaches making changes. After Illinois allowed Northwestern to convert on 14-of-24 (58.3 percent) 2-point attempts in that Jan. 23 loss, Weber made the lineup and leadership changes. Tyler Griffey took Davis’ place in the starting lineup at Penn State, even though Davis played 27 minutes to Griffey’s 10, and Bill Cole was chosen as a captain with McCamey. We’ll have to wait until Illini picks on someone their own size, but — related or not — Weber’s changes after the Northwestern game have coincided with a distinct improvement in 2-point defense.

Illinois’ 2-point defense in Big Ten play:

The obvious caveat is the opposition. Illinois played the league’s three worst teams over its last three games. Iowa, Penn State and Indiana rank eighth, 10th and 11th respectively in 2-point shooting. At the same time, Northwestern is ninth, and the Wildcats torched Illinois inside in Evanston.

For a more apples-to-apples comparison, let’s look at Illinois’ 2-point defense in its first meeting against the bottom three compared to its second.

That’s a less jarring if still significant improvement, a difference of more than four points in a typical game. If Illinois can translate these performances into the very difficult matchups that lie ahead, perhaps the Illini can get the four wins they need to enter the Big Ten Tournament with a real shot at the NCAA Tournament. We should know all we need to know by the night of Feb. 20. Between now and then, Illinois travels to Wisconsin and Purdue, and the Illini also host Michigan State and Ohio State.

The preparatory season is over, and the heart of the Big Ten season now begins. Will this team in the “year between” rally for an unlikely run to the NCAA Tournament, or will it be a bleak March of looking ahead for Illini fans? We’ll begin to get answers on Saturday in Champaign.

Ohio State 70, Purdue 66: The Buckeyes’ win at Purdue was remarkable and necessary. Down 15, Ohio State was eight minutes from falling to 1-4 in Big Ten play thanks to Robbie Hummel’s 29-point, first-half outbreak. Instead, Evan Turner made Chris Kramer and Purdue — one of the best defenders and best defensive teams in the nation respectively — look like something far less than that.

Turner played all 40 minutes, scoring 32 points and pulling down nine rebounds. Neither Turner nor his coach, Thad Matta, believe that the sophomore is at full strength after missing most of seven games with a scary back injury, but the point-forward was plenty good enough to help OSU get to 2-3 in conference.

Purdue is one of the best 2-point defense teams in the nation, but the Buckeyes hit at a 52.6-percent clip (20-for-38). For the season, Purdue is holding opponents to a 41.2-percent 2-point conversion rate. Along with Turner’s 10-for-20 on 2-pointers, teammate William Buford made 6-of-8 2-pointers in a 19-point night. The ability to break down their opponents’ strength was essential to the Buckeyes’ win.

Despite the win, there are a couple of worrying signs for Ohio State. First, the turnovers. One of Turner’s few faults is his high turnover rate. David Lighty also has the tendency to give the ball away, and the two combined for 10 turnovers Tuesday night. OSU is eighth in the Big Ten in turnover rate at 19.0 percent, but the Buckeyes have turned the ball over on at least 20 percent of their possessions in seven straight games.

The second issue is Ohio State’s lack of depth. The Buckeyes don’t foul a lot, so they tend not to lose players to foul trouble, but it’s still troubling to ask four starters to each play at least 36 minutes. OSU got only 23 minutes and five points out of its bench. Over an 18-game Big Ten schedule, that can wear a team down.

For Purdue, one wonders where the dominant defense has gone. The Boilermakers started 14-0 and held every opponent to fewer than a point per possession. In the two losses over the last four days, Purdue allowed both Wisconsin and Ohio State to score efficiently. Purdue is especially good at two things on defense — forcing turnovers and suppressing opponents’ field-goal percentage. Wisconsin didn’t turn it over, and Ohio State didn’t miss shots. OSU and Wisconsin are two of the top three offenses Purdue has faced this season. West Virginia is other top defense Purdue faced, and the Boilermakers held WVU to 62 points in 63 possessions. Purdue won’t face another top defensive team until traveling to East Lansing to play Michigan State on Feb. 9, so we may not learn whether this is a fluke or a trend until then.

Skipping ahead to March, the Big Ten’s RPI is worrisome, as only seven of the league’s 11 teams are in the top 150. With just two losses, Purdue shouldn’t have any trouble getting into the NCAAs, though its seed may be affected by the league’s poor performance out of conference, especially that of those bottom four teams — Michigan, Penn State, Indiana, Iowa. Ohio State is in a strange situation with a poor RPI — though a big jump to 61 after Tuesday’s win — but three losses without one of the nation’s best players. Assuming OSU gets to 10 or 11 wins in conference, the Buckeyes should be fine, but it’s other teams in the league — primarily Northwestern and Illinois — who are in a tough predicament thanks to the struggle of conference foes. With five losses out of conference, Illinois has itself to blame as well.

You can forgive Purdue for its sloppy start against an Iowa team, which — in my mother’s words — stinks to high heaven. With undefeated West Virginia ahead on Friday in West Lafayette, the Boilermakers looked disinterested in a first half that saw them make just 11-of-30 shots, including 1-of-6 3-pointers. Still, Iowa led by just one at the half, and the handwriting was on the wall for the second half, as Purdue pulled away for a 67-56 win.

Robbie Hummel and E’Twaune Moore had hot second halves, but what might have been most surprising was JaJuan Johnson’s indifferent night. The junior had just six points and no free-throw attempts against one of major conference’s worst interior defenses. Johnson’s quiet night made no difference though, since Iowa couldn’t hold on to the ball on offense or stop the rest of the Boilers on defense. Considering the strengths and weaknesses of these two teams, Purdue’s far superior percentage on 2-pointers (52.4 to 42.9) and nine fewer turnovers were as predictable as they were devastating.

As the first half showed, Purdue’s offense can be less than overwhelming, even against one of the worst defenses Matt Painter’s team will see all season. The inconsistent offense is the reason why Purdue won’t emerge from a brutal six-game stretch undefeated. The Boilermakers host West Virginia and Minnesota before heading to Wisconsin, hosting Ohio State and visiting Northwestern and Illinois. Even a 4-2 record would be very good against that competition.

With Hummel, Johnson and Moore, Purdue has three players who take and make a lot of shots, so where is the relative inefficiency coming from? The main issues are getting to the foul line and making 3-pointers. Not getting to the free-throw line is not a new problem for Purdue, and it’s unlikely to change. For a 6-foot-8 player with a good body, Hummel just doesn’t draw as many fouls as one would expect, and, hence, his team doesn’t get to the line very much.

As for the 3-pointers, that has the potential to improve. Take a look at the dropoff for the three Boilers who take the most deep attempts.

The 3-point shot is not a major piece of Painter’s offensive arsenal, but Purdue has gone from scoring 28.5 percent of its points on 3’s last season to scoring just 23 percent from long range so far this season. If Hummel and Grant, particularly, can improve their accuracy, Purdue’s offense will get better as well.

Purdue’s next conference game is at home against Minnesota on Tuesday. The Gophers, like Purdue, opened their Big Ten season on Wednesday night hosting another second-division team, Penn State. And like Purdue, Minnesota struggled, trailing in the second half before pulling out a 75-70 victory.

Tubby Smith’s Gophers had a very rough three-game stretch just after Thanksgiving, losing on a neutral court to both Portland and Texas A&M before falling in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge at Miami a couple of nights later. Despite the three-game losing streak and the notable exit of top recruit Royce White, Minnesota is now 11-3 behind very strong defensive play. The Nittany Lions, though, became the first Minnesota opponent to score at least a point per possession all season on Tuesday.

Minnesota is one of the best defensive teams in American because it does two things particularly well — prevent made 2-pointers and force turnovers. The Gophers are sixth in the nation in both blocked-shot rate (which correlates heavily to 2-point defense) and steals rate. It would seem to be an unlikely combination, as teams that block shots tend to have great length, while teams that force steals tend to have great quickness. Still, there are five teams that rank in the nation’s top 30 in both rates.

Against Penn State, Minnesota still blocked a bunch of shots (five) and had a lot of steals (11), numbers right in line with the season rates. Talor Battle, however, is a one-man stat nullifier. He hit 5-of-8 3-pointers in a 23-point night. Penn State’s starting frontcourt of Andrew Jones, David Jackson and Jeff Brooks combined to nail 12-of-18 2-pointers. In the face of intimidating defenders, the shots went in, and Minnesota nearly lost.

Instead, Lawrence Westbrook prevented a sloppy start to conference play. He scored 29 points on just 16 field-goal attempts thanks to 11-for-16 shooting and four 3-pointers. Westbrook has that type of big-game potential, and it’s something a Minnesota offense, which struggles to get to the line or get second-chance baskets will need with greater consistency for the rest of the season.

Ten-deep with athletes and stifling on defense, Minnesota is surely the best team to not receive any votes in this week’s Associated Press rankings (I was a little stunned when I saw this). Al Nolen and Damian Johnson are two of the top thieves in the country. Johnson, Colton Iverson and Ralph Sampson are among the top shot-blockers in the nation. Blake Hoffarber has regained his stroke, and Lawrence Westbrook and Devoe Joseph can score it. The question is the offensive consistency. For one night in Big Ten play, the offense was there. It was just one night, though.

Top 10 conferences by RPI (through games of Dec. 3):

1. Big East
2. ACC
3. Big 12
4. SEC
5. Atlantic 10
6. Big Ten
7. Mountain West
8. Pac-10
9. Missouri Valley
10. WAC

Based on our expectations entering the season, there is one surprise in each direction. The Big East is the pleasant one, the Big Ten the unpleasant one. Let’s look at both.

The Big East entered this season with muted expectations thanks to the departure of so much talent from last year’s historically strong season. The thing about last year, though, was that the Big East was exceptionally tough at the top but very poor at bottom. Teams like DePaul, South Florida and Rutgers played very poorly out of conference, and those teams brought down the conference’s RPI, which ended the year just fourth.

Even top teams like Louisville played very poorly out of conference. This did not affect the inclusion or seeding for the Big East’s top seven teams whose profiles were too strong to ignore, but it definitely made teams like Providence and Cincinnati less attractive. Had the league been better out of conference, the Friars’ 19-13 record with 11 conference wins would likely have gotten them in the field.

For instance, this season, a similar finish for any team in the Big East will probably get that team in with a bit of breathing room. The interesting thing about the Big East’s very strong RPI and the Big Ten’s weak RPI isn’t so much how the leagues have fared against other major conferences but rather the number of losses they’ve suffered to teams in lower leagues.

Five of the six major conferences — including the Big East and Big Ten — are somewhere from .500 to just four games over against other major-conference teams. The discrepancy is in the conferences’ play in the lion’s share of games, which come against teams from smaller leagues. The Big East’s 79-3 record is amazing (when I get a free week, I’d like to go back and see if this is the best record of the decade. I’d guess it is). Big East teams have only lost to UNLV, Vermont and Gonzaga in 82 non-conference games against mid-major or small-conference teams.

Look at the list of Big Ten losses to non-major teams: Portland, Butler, Gonzaga, Utah, Bradley, UNC-Wilmington, Tulane, Boston University, George Mason, Texas-San Antonio, Duquesne, Wichita State. It’s a mixed bag of good mid-majors, weak mid-majors and mediocre teams from poor conferences. The key issue isn’t how good or bad those teams are but rather how long the list is. Penn State and Iowa have especially damaged their Big Ten brethren.

The fallout from poor non-conference play is large and compounding. If teams make large second-half improvements after playing poorly out of conference, that merely serves to hurt the other teams in the conference. The SEC’s play out of conference last season fated it to three bids, while the Big Ten’s play out of conference was the key to getting seven bids. March is when teams punch their tickets for the NCAA Tournament, but November and December is when conferences do it.

There is still time for the conferences and their teams to rewrite the ending of the season. The key is just to avoid losing to teams from lesser conference. If a league can break even against the majors and dominate the minors, it will have a rich payoff in March.

The two conferences enter the last day of the challenge with three wins each. The Big Ten took a 3-0 lead in the series when it swept the 7:00 games on Tuesday night, Purdue pulling away from Wake Forest, 70-59, and Northwestern going down to Raleigh and schooling NC State, 65-53. This after Penn State squeaked past Virginia in Charlottesville on Monday night.

The ACC, though, is a resilient league, and the later tip-offs on Tuesday all went its way. Maryland visited hapless Indiana and won by 12. North Carolina hosted Michigan State in a rematch of April’s national title game, and the Tar Heels prevailed again behind Ed Davis, 89-82. Iowa hung with Virginia Tech for most of Tuesday’s final game, but the Hokies slipped away at the end, 70-64.

That brings us to Wednesday and the final five games. The Big Ten is host in three of them, but the ACC is favored in three. Based on the spreads of the game and an odds converter, the ACC is projected to win 2.54 games and the Big Ten is projected to win 2.46, which means the ACC has a 50.8-percent chance of winning the challenge to the Big Ten’s 49.2. It would be hard to set up something more even. Still, there are five games, so one conference must win more.

The ACC starts the night hosting a pair of 7:15 matchups where the home team is favored. (The spreads are there mainly to inform the percentage chances that each team wins and not for betting purposes.)

Illinois at Clemson (-4.5), 7:15 p.m.: The 4.5-point spread makes Clemson the pick to win about 66 percent of the time. The Illini enter off consecutive losses to mediocre Utah and Bradley squads on a neutral court. Illinois’ best win is over Wofford, and UofI is in desperate need of a big non-conference win before the Big Ten season. Clemson comes in of a one-point win over Butler after a fifth-place finish at the Anaheim Classic that included a somewhat surprising loss to Texas A&M. The Tigers force turnovers, and the Illini don’t commit them. If Illinois can hang on to the ball, this game should be close. I still give a solid edge to Clemson.

Minnesota at Miami (-2.5), 7:15 p.m.: The oddsmakers see this as the closest matchup of the night with the undefeated Hurricanes hosting the twice-beaten Gophers and the home team favored to win 57 percent of the time. The Canes’ only win against a quality opponent, though, came in the final of the Charleston Classic, a 15-point victory over South Carolina. Like Illinois, Minnesota enters off of two losses. The Gophers finished a disappointed fourth in the Anaheim Classic thanks to a five-point loss to Portland and a one-point loss to Texas A&M. Still, Minnesota has a terrific defense led by a rare combination of forcing turnovers and defending the rim on 2-pointers. This looks like a good place for the Big Ten to gain a balance-tilting victory.

Boston College at Michigan (-5), 7:30 p.m.: The scene shifts to the Midwest for the third game, where the Big Ten team, once again, enters off of a pair of losses, though Michigan is favored to win this one about 63 percent of the time. The Wolverines fell first to Marquette and then to Alabama in the Old Spice Classic and have not played up to their preseason ranking. Boston College has had its struggles as well, especially with an injury to Rakim Sanders, but the Eagles managed to pull out a tough road win at Providence on Saturday. If it can do it again on Wednesday, Al Skinner’s club will have given the ACC a huge edge. I still like Michigan at home and fairly comfortably.

Duke (-4.5) at Wisconsin, 9:15 p.m.: Duke comes to Madison off the title in the NIT Season Tip-off and is favored to win this matchup 66 percent of the time, the only road favorite of the night. The Blue Devils made quick work of Connecticut in the final in New York, while Wisconsin played well in finishing third at the Maui Invitational last week. This appears to be another Bo Ryan team that will play terrific field-goal defense and shut down that glass, and that’s a good thing because Duke, led by Brian Zoubek, has been thriving on offensive rebounds. Duke’s size has been surprisingly effective this season, as the Blue Devils have had terrific field-goal defense, notably on 2-pointers, and defending them was a struggle last season. Wisconsin will need big games from Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil to have the Blue Devils their first defeat.

Florida State at Ohio State (-6.5), 9:30 p.m.: Should the Big Ten enter the final round of games with five wins, the oddsmakers like the league’s chances of putting away their first Challenge in Columbus where the Buckeyes are the biggest favorites in this five-game slate, expected to win about 73 percent of the time. It’s a mild surprise that OSU is such a big favorite considering its only win of note was over a short-handed Cal team, and the Buckeyes were overmatched by UNC for most of a loss whose four-point margin was smaller than the difference between the two teams on that night.

Florida State recovered nicely from a 16-point shellacking to in-state rival Florida, winning the Old Spice Classic with a come-from-behind victory over Marquette on Sunday, despite trailing by 17 in the second half. Whoever wins inside should win the game, as Florida State has the seventh best interior defense in the country (opponents shoot 37.0 percent on 2-pointers) thanks to three players who already have reached double figures in blocks. Led by Evan Turner’s 65.3 percent shooting on 2-pointers, Ohio State has the third best two-point percentage in the country at 60.3 percent. Something’s got to give. I’ll give OSU a slight edge, smaller than what the oddsmakers think.