February 16, 2010 –
by Brendon
In a span of 72 hours, each of the Big East’s top four teams — squads that once fit neatly on the top two seedlines of most NCAA Tournament projections — lost. In and of themselves, the losses for West Virginia, Syracuse, Georgetown and Villanova won’t do anything to affect their NCAA Tournament acceptance and will do little to affect their seeding, but what they did do was reveal potentially fatal flaws, which are often overlooked as teams pile up wins.
West Virginia: The Mountaineers’ 98-95 overtime loss at Pittsburgh was the most excusable of the defeats suffered by the Big East’s top four on this holiday weekend, but it was also West Virginia’s second-straight loss. It may come as a surprise to some that it’s WVU’s defense and not its offense that has been mostly to blame in the team’s five defeats.
|
Efficiencies |
Defense |
| Opponent |
PPP |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Reb |
FTR |
2PT% |
3PT% |
| at Purdue |
0.987 |
1.225 |
0.536 |
0.111 |
0.318 |
0.411 |
0.545 |
0.333 |
| at Notre Dame |
1.130 |
1.164 |
0.616 |
0.150 |
0.180 |
0.558 |
0.533 |
0.538 |
| vs. Syracuse |
1.065 |
1.080 |
0.622 |
0.300 |
0.458 |
0.578 |
0.667 |
0.333 |
| vs. Villanova |
1.044 |
1.142 |
0.618 |
0.251 |
0.460 |
0.431 |
0.600 |
0.455 |
| at Pittsburgh |
1.165 |
1.202 |
0.508 |
0.098 |
0.274 |
0.536 |
0.500 |
0.346 |
| Composite |
1.078 |
1.163 |
0.580 |
0.182 |
0.338 |
0.503 |
0.569 |
0.401 |
You can see that West Virginia is allowing 0.085 points per possession more than it is scoring in its five losses. The main culprit is field-goal defense. Despite the Mountaineers’ notable length, they are allowing opponents to make 40 percent of their 3-pointers and 57 percent of their 2-pointers in these defeats. For the season, West Virginia is ahead of only the comparatively tiny Marquette and Providence squads in 2-point defense among Big East teams. Read More »
Posted in Big East
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Tagged Andy Rautins, Antonio Pena, Arinze Onuaku, Big East, Billy Gillispie, Brandon Triche, Colorado, Corey Stokes, Georgetown, Georgia, Greg Monroe, Iowa, Jared Swopshire, Jessie Sapp, John Thompson III, Kansas State, Louisville, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rakeem Buckles, Rick Jackson, Rutgers, Samardo Samuels, Scoop Jardine, Sharaud Curry, Southern Cal, Southern Illinois, Syracuse, Texas A&M, Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Western Kentucky
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February 12, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Bracketing Challenges: This bracket came together well, but there were still a few challenges. Most notably, any of the last three teams in the field could easily be omitted. South Carolina, Texas Tech and VCU have thin cases, but I found them marginally more compelling than Mississippi, Florida, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and Louisville. If the bracket were announced today, I would not be very confident in those final three teams.
The other challenge continues to be in filling out the top four seedlines. Finding the last two No. 3 seeds was particularly difficult with the poor play of Texas and after Wisconsin’s home defeat to Illinois. Still, the full-season profiles of those two teams remains stronger than Vanderbilt, Gonzaga and the others on the No. 4 seedline. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Bruce Weber, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Cornell, Demetri McCamey, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Harvard, Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, Ivy League, Jerome Randle, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Pat Knight, Purdue, Richmond, Rick Barnes, SEC, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, South Carolina, South Florida, St. John's, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin
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February 5, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.
It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.
Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Augustus Gilchrist, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Brigham Young, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Connecticut, Cornell, Dayton, DePaul, Derrick Williams, Dominique Jones, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Leonard Hamilton, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Robert Morris, Rutgers, Scott Drew, SEC, Seton Hall, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Stan Heath, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington, Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier
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February 4, 2010 –
by Brendon
Bruce Weber’s team is underachieving this year, and, as a result, he’s been switching things up. He had the team elect new captains; he has changed the starting lineup. Since those shakeups following a loss at Northwestern two Saturdays ago, Illinois has won three straight, but victories over Penn State, Indiana and Iowa haven’t done much to stem growing concern that this is becoming a lost season for the Illini. It’s tricky to parse the numbers, but Illinois may be making some real strides to reverse one negative defensive trend that has plagued UofI this season.
Expectations: This appeared to be a “hold-water” year for Illinois in the fall. Weber had lost solid distributor and defender Chester Frazier, spot-up shooter Trent Meacham and the versatile Calvin Brock from a team that achieved a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season.
The additions of two four-star guards, D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul, as part of a nationally-ranked four-player 2009 class seemed likely to prevent much regression as Weber awaits his most acclaimed class in 2010. In 2010-11, Richardson and Paul are to be joined by three of the nation’s top prep players, including small forward Jereme Richmond. Weber will also have his top three returners entering this season — Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale — back for their senior seasons. It would appear to be a fortuitous confluence of talent in what many expect will be the season of Illinois’ re-emergence as a Big Ten power. Read More »
Posted in Big Ten
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Tagged Big Ten, Bill Cole, Bradley, Brandon Paul, Bruce Weber, Calvin Brock, Chester Frazier, Clemson, D.J. Richardson, Demetri McCamey, Evan Turner, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Jereme Richmond, Michigan State, Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Trent Meacham, Tyler Griffey, Utah, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin
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January 13, 2010 –
by Brendon
Four of the six major conferences were in action on Tuesday, and each league’s slate featured a game with two teams that have legitimate hopes of a trip to the NCAA Tournament. Three of the games were close down the stretch, and one wasn’t. All four taught us something about each team.
Ohio State 70, Purdue 66: The Buckeyes’ win at Purdue was remarkable and necessary. Down 15, Ohio State was eight minutes from falling to 1-4 in Big Ten play thanks to Robbie Hummel’s 29-point, first-half outbreak. Instead, Evan Turner made Chris Kramer and Purdue — one of the best defenders and best defensive teams in the nation respectively — look like something far less than that.
|
Poss |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Off Reb |
FTR |
| Ohio State |
65 |
1.07 |
0.561 |
0.246 |
0.360 |
0.306 |
| Purdue |
65 |
1.01 |
0.518 |
0.215 |
0.286 |
0.143 |
Turner played all 40 minutes, scoring 32 points and pulling down nine rebounds. Neither Turner nor his coach, Thad Matta, believe that the sophomore is at full strength after missing most of seven games with a scary back injury, but the point-forward was plenty good enough to help OSU get to 2-3 in conference. Read More »
Posted in Big Ten, Game of the Night
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Tagged Big Ten, Chris Kramer, David Lighty, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Robbie Hummel, Thad Matta, West Virginia, William Buford, Wisconsin
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December 30, 2009 –
by Brendon
The Big Ten opened conference play on Tuesday night with a pair of matchups between teams aiming for the top of the league and teams hoping to avoid its very bottom. The top teams one, though without the ease one might have expected.
You can forgive Purdue for its sloppy start against an Iowa team, which — in my mother’s words — stinks to high heaven. With undefeated West Virginia ahead on Friday in West Lafayette, the Boilermakers looked disinterested in a first half that saw them make just 11-of-30 shots, including 1-of-6 3-pointers. Still, Iowa led by just one at the half, and the handwriting was on the wall for the second half, as Purdue pulled away for a 67-56 win.
| Team |
Poss |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Reb |
FTR |
| Purdue |
60 |
1.11 |
0.528 |
0.116 |
0.281 |
0.208 |
| Iowa |
60 |
0.93 |
0.471 |
0.265 |
0.344 |
0.157 |
Robbie Hummel and E’Twaune Moore had hot second halves, but what might have been most surprising was JaJuan Johnson’s indifferent night. The junior had just six points and no free-throw attempts against one of major conference’s worst interior defenses. Johnson’s quiet night made no difference though, since Iowa couldn’t hold on to the ball on offense or stop the rest of the Boilers on defense. Considering the strengths and weaknesses of these two teams, Purdue’s far superior percentage on 2-pointers (52.4 to 42.9) and nine fewer turnovers were as predictable as they were devastating. Read More »
Posted in Big Ten, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Al Nolen, Andrew Jones, Big Ten, Blake Hoffarber, Colton Iverson, Damian Johnson, David Jackson, Devoe Joseph, E'Twaune Moore, Illinois, Iowa, JaJuan Johnson, Jeff Brooks, Keaton Grant, Lawrence Westbrook, Matt Painter, Miam (Fla.), Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Portland, Purdue, Ralph Sampson, Robbie Hummel, Royce White, Talor Battle, Texas A&M, Tubby Smith, West Virginia, Wisconsin
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December 4, 2009 –
by Brendon
Most teams are about halfway through their non-conference schedules, which makes this a pretty good time to look at how conferences are doing in terms of RPI. Conference RPI is a solid predictor of how generous the committee will be to a given conference come Selection Sunday (more on that soon).
Top 10 conferences by RPI (through games of Dec. 3):
1. Big East
2. ACC
3. Big 12
4. SEC
5. Atlantic 10
6. Big Ten
7. Mountain West
8. Pac-10
9. Missouri Valley
10. WAC
Based on our expectations entering the season, there is one surprise in each direction. The Big East is the pleasant one, the Big Ten the unpleasant one. Let’s look at both.
The Big East entered this season with muted expectations thanks to the departure of so much talent from last year’s historically strong season. The thing about last year, though, was that the Big East was exceptionally tough at the top but very poor at bottom. Teams like DePaul, South Florida and Rutgers played very poorly out of conference, and those teams brought down the conference’s RPI, which ended the year just fourth. Read More »
Posted in Big East, Big Ten, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Atlantic-10, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Boston University, Bradley, Cincinnati, DePaul, Duquesne, George Mason, Gonzaga, Iowa, Louisville, Missouri Valley, Pac-10, Penn State, Providence, Rutgers, SEC, South Florida, Texas-San Antonio, Tulane, UNC-Wilmington, UNLV, Utah, Vermont, WAC, Wichita State
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December 2, 2009 –
by Brendon
The ACC-Big Ten Challenge is closing its 11th edition Wednesday night, and the conference from the Midwest has yet to win it. Five times — including last year — the Big Ten has come up just a game short. Someday the National League will lose the All-Star Game to the American League again, and someday the ACC will fall to the Big Ten. Could that day be today? The oddsmakers put it at just about even money.
The two conferences enter the last day of the challenge with three wins each. The Big Ten took a 3-0 lead in the series when it swept the 7:00 games on Tuesday night, Purdue pulling away from Wake Forest, 70-59, and Northwestern going down to Raleigh and schooling NC State, 65-53. This after Penn State squeaked past Virginia in Charlottesville on Monday night.
The ACC, though, is a resilient league, and the later tip-offs on Tuesday all went its way. Maryland visited hapless Indiana and won by 12. North Carolina hosted Michigan State in a rematch of April’s national title game, and the Tar Heels prevailed again behind Ed Davis, 89-82. Iowa hung with Virginia Tech for most of Tuesday’s final game, but the Hokies slipped away at the end, 70-64. Read More »
Posted in ACC, Big Ten, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged ACC, ACC-Big Ten Challenge, Al Skinner, Alabama, Big Ten, Bo Ryan, Boston College, Bradley, Brian Zoubek, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Duke, Ed Davis, Evan Turner, Florida State, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Marquette, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rakim Sanders, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Utah, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Wisconsin, Wofford
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