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Bracket Junkie: UND’s big week gives the Big East nine

March 1, 2010 – by Brendon

Bracketing Challenges: Ideally, one would like to avoid any recent NCAA Tournament or regular-season rematches in the first two rounds of the Tournament. This is not a hard and fast rule, though, as Gonzaga and Indiana were matched up early in two consecutive tournaments (2006 and 2007). In this bracket, Illinois and Vanderbilt are set up for a potential regular-season rematch in the second round. To change this would require moving teams a seed line up or down, and the NCAA Tournament committee should be more committed to keeping teams on their true seed line rather than avoiding potential second-round rematches. The NCAA doesn’t reveal which teams were moved from their true seed line, so we don’t know for sure how common this practice is.

The two primary seeding challenges were at the ends of the No. 2 and No. 4 seed lines. Villanova got the nod over New Mexico mainly because it’s hard for me to see a Mountain West team gaining a No. 2 seed without a highly impressive non-conference profile and as long as there are other teams with legitimate cases. New Mexico defeated Cal, Texas A&M and Dayton out of conference but is lacking a top win to earn a No. 2 seed. Ohio State may get that last No. 2 in some projections. At the end of the No. 4 seed line, Michigan State edged out Tennessee, with MSU’s play without Kalin Lucas serving as the tiebreaker.

Moving In as At-large: Notre Dame, Saint Mary’s

Moving Out as At-large: Rhode Island, San Diego State

Moving In as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Quinnipiac (Northeast), North Texas (Sun Belt)

Moving Out as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Robert Morris (Northeast), Troy (Sun Belt)

On the Bubble: After defeating Pittsburgh and Georgetown in a matter of days, Notre Dame jumps into the field and does so with room to spare. It is arguable whether UND deserves to be ahead of Virginia Tech in the last-10-in pecking order, but the Irish are clearly ahead of Illinois, Saint Mary’s and Dayton. And as for VaTech, Notre Dame has a 3-0 edge in wins over RPI top-25 teams. Connecticut stays in despite blowing the lead at home to Louisville on Sunday. That gives the Big East nine teams, which would be a record. I still think it’s unlikely that the Big East will get nine on the key date — March 14. Mid-major upsets in conference tournaments and teams and Big East teams around the bubble knocking each other off — Notre Dame still has Connecticut and Marquette left to play — figure to cut the total to eight eventually. Right now, though, I’m convinced that all nine would get in. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged Arizona State, Baylor, Butler, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Dayton, Florida, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, New Mexico, Northern Iowa, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, Siena, South Florida, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, UNLV, Utah State, UTEP, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, Xavier | Comments (1)

Bracket Junkie: An unholy mess

February 5, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.

It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.

Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Augustus Gilchrist, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Brigham Young, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Connecticut, Cornell, Dayton, DePaul, Derrick Williams, Dominique Jones, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Leonard Hamilton, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Robert Morris, Rutgers, Scott Drew, SEC, Seton Hall, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Stan Heath, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington, Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier | Comments (3)

With brutal schedule ahead, Illini’s defense to be tested

February 4, 2010 – by Brendon

Bruce Weber’s team is underachieving this year, and, as a result, he’s been switching things up. He had the team elect new captains; he has changed the starting lineup. Since those shakeups following a loss at Northwestern two Saturdays ago, Illinois has won three straight, but victories over Penn State, Indiana and Iowa haven’t done much to stem growing concern that this is becoming a lost season for the Illini. It’s tricky to parse the numbers, but Illinois may be making some real strides to reverse one negative defensive trend that has plagued UofI this season.

Expectations: This appeared to be a “hold-water” year for Illinois in the fall. Weber had lost solid distributor and defender Chester Frazier, spot-up shooter Trent Meacham and the versatile Calvin Brock from a team that achieved a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season.

The additions of two four-star guards, D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul, as part of a nationally-ranked four-player 2009 class seemed likely to prevent much regression as Weber awaits his most acclaimed class in 2010. In 2010-11, Richardson and Paul are to be joined by three of the nation’s top prep players, including small forward Jereme Richmond. Weber will also have his top three returners entering this season — Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale — back for their senior seasons. It would appear to be a fortuitous confluence of talent in what many expect will be the season of Illinois’ re-emergence as a Big Ten power. Read More »

Posted in Big Ten | Tagged Big Ten, Bill Cole, Bradley, Brandon Paul, Bruce Weber, Calvin Brock, Chester Frazier, Clemson, D.J. Richardson, Demetri McCamey, Evan Turner, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Jereme Richmond, Michigan State, Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Trent Meacham, Tyler Griffey, Utah, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin | Comments (0)

Bracket Junkie: Loving the Lobos

February 1, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Breakdown: Perhaps the most difficult aspect to building this bracket was finding that last No. 3 seed. Out of Purdue, Kansas State, Duke, Texas and West Virginia, it was clear that two of them would be No. 2 seeds and three would be No. 3 seeds, but there was no obvious choice to fill out that third line. Just like in the last projection, I went with New Mexico over Brigham Young and any other team — Wisconsin, Tennessee, Baylor, Temple, Ohio State, Georgia Tech — that might have had a claim.

The good thing is that none of those teams had a very strong claim at that spot. New Mexico was the choice because its five wins against top-50 teams was more than any other team that hadn’t been bracketed, except Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, which also have five. New Mexico’s record (20-3), combined with a head-to-head win over Brigham Young, a six-game winning streak and a 10th ranking in my seeding model put the Lobos over the top. I’m not sure what the Selection Committee would do if presented this scenario, but the only other teams I could see them bracketing here are BYU, who — again — has lost to New Mexico head-to-head, or Ohio State, if the Buckeyes were given a complete pass for losses suffered when Evan Turner was injured. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Baylor, Billy Donovan, Brigham Young, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Creighton, Dayton, Demetri McCamey, DePaul, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Illinois State, Indiana, Jimmy Butler, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rutgers, Sean Miller, South Carolina, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple, Tennesse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State, William & Mary, Wisconsin | Comments (2)

Pitt’s ability to absorb departures continues to astound

January 14, 2010 – by Brendon

On consecutive early-December nights, Pittsburgh and Connecticut left Madison Square Garden disappointed. On Tuesday, Dec. 8, Pittsburgh played its worst game of the season against a poor Indiana team. The Panthers shot just 37.1 percent eFG and fell by 10 in a game that was either unwatchable or barely so.

A night later in the Big East/SEC Invitational, Connecticut recovered from a terrible start to lead Kentucky through most of the second half. John Wall took over down the stretch, though, as the still-undefeated Wildcats knocked off the Huskies, 64-61.

Five weeks later, Pittsburgh and UConn got together at the XL Center in Hartford, and Pittsburgh remained undefeated in conference, topping the Huskies, 67-57, behind 19 each from Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker. It would have taken a lot of squinting and copious amounts of alcohol to see this coming five weeks ago.

	Poss	PPP	eFG	Turn	Reb	FTR
Pittsburgh	62	1.07	0.424	0.209	0.487	0.288
Connecticut	62	0.91	0.472	0.209	0.344	0.111

It’s not that we didn’t already see cracks in Connecticut in December. The primary transformation has come from Pittsburgh, so that’s on whom I’ll mostly focus. We all know how this team looks different from last year’s team. Sam Young, DeJuan Blair, Levance Fields and Tyrell Biggs have all departed and with them the core of last season’s Elite Eight and No. 1-seeded team. Read More »

Posted in Big East, Game of the Night | Tagged A.J. Price, Aaron Gray, Antonio Graves, Ashton Gibbs, Ater Majok, Big East, Brad Wanamaker, Carl Krauser, Chevron Troutman, Chris Taft, Connecticut, Donnell Beverly, Duquesne, Gavin Edwards, Gilbert Brown, Hasheem Thabeet, Indiana, Jamie Dixon, Jeff Adrien, Jermaine Dixon, Jerome Dyson, Jim Calhoun, Kentucky, Levance Fields, Levon Kendall, Michigan, Mike Cook, Pittsburgh, Ron Ramon, Sam Young, Stanley Robinson, Syracuse, Texas, Tyrell Biggs, Wofford | Comments (0)

Turner proves Purdue’s defense is mortal again

January 13, 2010 – by Brendon

Four of the six major conferences were in action on Tuesday, and each league’s slate featured a game with two teams that have legitimate hopes of a trip to the NCAA Tournament. Three of the games were close down the stretch, and one wasn’t. All four taught us something about each team.

Ohio State 70, Purdue 66: The Buckeyes’ win at Purdue was remarkable and necessary. Down 15, Ohio State was eight minutes from falling to 1-4 in Big Ten play thanks to Robbie Hummel’s 29-point, first-half outbreak. Instead, Evan Turner made Chris Kramer and Purdue — one of the best defenders and best defensive teams in the nation respectively — look like something far less than that.

	Poss	PPP	eFG	Turn	Off Reb	FTR
Ohio State	65	1.07	0.561	0.246	0.360	0.306
Purdue	65	1.01	0.518	0.215	0.286	0.143

Turner played all 40 minutes, scoring 32 points and pulling down nine rebounds. Neither Turner nor his coach, Thad Matta, believe that the sophomore is at full strength after missing most of seven games with a scary back injury, but the point-forward was plenty good enough to help OSU get to 2-3 in conference. Read More »

Posted in Big Ten, Game of the Night | Tagged Big Ten, Chris Kramer, David Lighty, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Robbie Hummel, Thad Matta, West Virginia, William Buford, Wisconsin | Comments (0)

Big Ten is even money to take first Challenge

December 2, 2009 – by Brendon

The ACC-Big Ten Challenge is closing its 11th edition Wednesday night, and the conference from the Midwest has yet to win it. Five times — including last year — the Big Ten has come up just a game short. Someday the National League will lose the All-Star Game to the American League again, and someday the ACC will fall to the Big Ten. Could that day be today? The oddsmakers put it at just about even money.

The two conferences enter the last day of the challenge with three wins each. The Big Ten took a 3-0 lead in the series when it swept the 7:00 games on Tuesday night, Purdue pulling away from Wake Forest, 70-59, and Northwestern going down to Raleigh and schooling NC State, 65-53. This after Penn State squeaked past Virginia in Charlottesville on Monday night.

The ACC, though, is a resilient league, and the later tip-offs on Tuesday all went its way. Maryland visited hapless Indiana and won by 12. North Carolina hosted Michigan State in a rematch of April’s national title game, and the Tar Heels prevailed again behind Ed Davis, 89-82. Iowa hung with Virginia Tech for most of Tuesday’s final game, but the Hokies slipped away at the end, 70-64. Read More »

Posted in ACC, Big Ten, Reviews/Previews | Tagged ACC, ACC-Big Ten Challenge, Al Skinner, Alabama, Big Ten, Bo Ryan, Boston College, Bradley, Brian Zoubek, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Duke, Ed Davis, Evan Turner, Florida State, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Marquette, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rakim Sanders, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Utah, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Wisconsin, Wofford | Comments (0)

Orange impress on intriguing day of hoops

November 23, 2009 – by Brendon

After perusing all of the scores from this weekend, I count 36 that were particularly meaningful, and I’m probably underselling others. While the opening weekend of the college basketball was exciting because it was new, we definitely learned a lot more over the last three days simply because there were games that could go either way. We saw the Big East get its first loss — four of them, in fact. We saw Big Ten teams place seventh and eighth in eight-team tournaments. And at Madison Square Garden on Friday, we saw Syracuse complete the most impressive two-game stretch of the season.

Most of the interesting games were on Friday, so, it’s Friday’s games that account for most of my words on this Monday. I’ll be looking at Saturday and Sunday in subsequent posts.

Friday

Syracuse’s 87-71 win over North Carolina headlined the night’s action and rightfully so. Syracuse is a team that lost Jonny Flynn and two other key players from last year’s Sweet 16 team, and prior to last season, Syracuse had narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament twice in a row, so the Orange no longer give off the scent of a program that can simply reload.

Enter Wesley Johnson. Well acknowledging that his length and diverse skillset would be a huge asset for a team lacking both, I was very cautious about those who saw Johnson as an immediate star and potential Big East Player of the Year in his first season at Syracuse after transferring from Iowa State. Johnson had 25 points and eight rebounds on Friday, and that doesn’t convey the length he adds to Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone.

	Poss	PPP	eFG	Turn	Reb	FTR
North Carolina	76	0.93	0.413	0.250	0.432	0.302
Syracuse	76	1.14	0.610	0.210	0.343	0.059

When you look at Syracuse’s figures above, notice that this one game is a replica of the Orange’s season thus far. Syracuse’s offense has been exceptional at hitting shots, especially 2-pointers — the Orange hit an incredible 59.6 against that imposing UNC frontcourt. The rest of the offensive for Syracuse, however, has been nothing special. Syracuse continues to turn the ball over too much, has not been great on the offensive glass and has not gotten to the line. It’s important to remember, though, that shooting is the overriding factor in an offense’s success and that the type of 2-pointers Syracuse has been making are not as beholden to fate as the 3-point shot. Read More »

Posted in Reviews/Previews | Tagged Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Appalachian State, Arkansas, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Big East, Big Ten, Boston College, Boston University, Brown, California, Central Florida, Chris Warren, Chris Wright, Cornell, Davidson, Dayton, DePaul, Drexel, George Mason, Indiana, Iowa State, JaMychal Green, Jeff Lebo, Jim Boeheim, Joe Trapani, Jonny Flynn, Kansas State, La Salle, Mac Koshwal, Mikhail Torrance, Mississippi, Missouri Valley, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, Providence, Rakim Sanders, Reggie Jackson, Rutgers, SEC, Seton Hall, South Carolina, St. John's, St. Joseph's, St. Mary's, Syracuse, Talor Battle, Tennessee, Terrico White, Tulane, USF, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Wesley Johnson | Comments (0)

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Bracket Junkie: UND’s big week gives the Big East nine

Bracket Junkie: An unholy mess

With brutal schedule ahead, Illini’s defense to be tested

Bracket Junkie: Loving the Lobos

Pitt’s ability to absorb departures continues to astound

Turner proves Purdue’s defense is mortal again

Big Ten is even money to take first Challenge

Orange impress on intriguing day of hoops

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