February 16, 2010 –
by Brendon
In a span of 72 hours, each of the Big East’s top four teams — squads that once fit neatly on the top two seedlines of most NCAA Tournament projections — lost. In and of themselves, the losses for West Virginia, Syracuse, Georgetown and Villanova won’t do anything to affect their NCAA Tournament acceptance and will do little to affect their seeding, but what they did do was reveal potentially fatal flaws, which are often overlooked as teams pile up wins.
West Virginia: The Mountaineers’ 98-95 overtime loss at Pittsburgh was the most excusable of the defeats suffered by the Big East’s top four on this holiday weekend, but it was also West Virginia’s second-straight loss. It may come as a surprise to some that it’s WVU’s defense and not its offense that has been mostly to blame in the team’s five defeats.
|
Efficiencies |
Defense |
| Opponent |
PPP |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Reb |
FTR |
2PT% |
3PT% |
| at Purdue |
0.987 |
1.225 |
0.536 |
0.111 |
0.318 |
0.411 |
0.545 |
0.333 |
| at Notre Dame |
1.130 |
1.164 |
0.616 |
0.150 |
0.180 |
0.558 |
0.533 |
0.538 |
| vs. Syracuse |
1.065 |
1.080 |
0.622 |
0.300 |
0.458 |
0.578 |
0.667 |
0.333 |
| vs. Villanova |
1.044 |
1.142 |
0.618 |
0.251 |
0.460 |
0.431 |
0.600 |
0.455 |
| at Pittsburgh |
1.165 |
1.202 |
0.508 |
0.098 |
0.274 |
0.536 |
0.500 |
0.346 |
| Composite |
1.078 |
1.163 |
0.580 |
0.182 |
0.338 |
0.503 |
0.569 |
0.401 |
You can see that West Virginia is allowing 0.085 points per possession more than it is scoring in its five losses. The main culprit is field-goal defense. Despite the Mountaineers’ notable length, they are allowing opponents to make 40 percent of their 3-pointers and 57 percent of their 2-pointers in these defeats. For the season, West Virginia is ahead of only the comparatively tiny Marquette and Providence squads in 2-point defense among Big East teams. Read More »
Posted in Big East
|
Tagged Andy Rautins, Antonio Pena, Arinze Onuaku, Big East, Billy Gillispie, Brandon Triche, Colorado, Corey Stokes, Georgetown, Georgia, Greg Monroe, Iowa, Jared Swopshire, Jessie Sapp, John Thompson III, Kansas State, Louisville, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rakeem Buckles, Rick Jackson, Rutgers, Samardo Samuels, Scoop Jardine, Sharaud Curry, Southern Cal, Southern Illinois, Syracuse, Texas A&M, Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Western Kentucky
|
February 4, 2010 –
by Brendon
Bruce Weber’s team is underachieving this year, and, as a result, he’s been switching things up. He had the team elect new captains; he has changed the starting lineup. Since those shakeups following a loss at Northwestern two Saturdays ago, Illinois has won three straight, but victories over Penn State, Indiana and Iowa haven’t done much to stem growing concern that this is becoming a lost season for the Illini. It’s tricky to parse the numbers, but Illinois may be making some real strides to reverse one negative defensive trend that has plagued UofI this season.
Expectations: This appeared to be a “hold-water” year for Illinois in the fall. Weber had lost solid distributor and defender Chester Frazier, spot-up shooter Trent Meacham and the versatile Calvin Brock from a team that achieved a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season.
The additions of two four-star guards, D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul, as part of a nationally-ranked four-player 2009 class seemed likely to prevent much regression as Weber awaits his most acclaimed class in 2010. In 2010-11, Richardson and Paul are to be joined by three of the nation’s top prep players, including small forward Jereme Richmond. Weber will also have his top three returners entering this season — Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale — back for their senior seasons. It would appear to be a fortuitous confluence of talent in what many expect will be the season of Illinois’ re-emergence as a Big Ten power. Read More »
Posted in Big Ten
|
Tagged Big Ten, Bill Cole, Bradley, Brandon Paul, Bruce Weber, Calvin Brock, Chester Frazier, Clemson, D.J. Richardson, Demetri McCamey, Evan Turner, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Jereme Richmond, Michigan State, Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Trent Meacham, Tyler Griffey, Utah, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin
|
February 1, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Breakdown: Perhaps the most difficult aspect to building this bracket was finding that last No. 3 seed. Out of Purdue, Kansas State, Duke, Texas and West Virginia, it was clear that two of them would be No. 2 seeds and three would be No. 3 seeds, but there was no obvious choice to fill out that third line. Just like in the last projection, I went with New Mexico over Brigham Young and any other team — Wisconsin, Tennessee, Baylor, Temple, Ohio State, Georgia Tech — that might have had a claim.
The good thing is that none of those teams had a very strong claim at that spot. New Mexico was the choice because its five wins against top-50 teams was more than any other team that hadn’t been bracketed, except Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, which also have five. New Mexico’s record (20-3), combined with a head-to-head win over Brigham Young, a six-game winning streak and a 10th ranking in my seeding model put the Lobos over the top. I’m not sure what the Selection Committee would do if presented this scenario, but the only other teams I could see them bracketing here are BYU, who — again — has lost to New Mexico head-to-head, or Ohio State, if the Buckeyes were given a complete pass for losses suffered when Evan Turner was injured. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
|
Tagged Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Baylor, Billy Donovan, Brigham Young, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Creighton, Dayton, Demetri McCamey, DePaul, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Illinois State, Indiana, Jimmy Butler, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rutgers, Sean Miller, South Carolina, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple, Tennesse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State, William & Mary, Wisconsin
|
January 29, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Notes: First, automatic bids for each conference are determined by conference record with tiebreakers broken by rank in our BTI model, not by head-to-head or other conference tiebreakers. Of course, every conference except for the Ivy League determines its ultimate automatic bid with a tournament, so conference tiebreakers really don’t matter much for our purposes. Second, there is one potential regular-season rematch in the first two rounds, and that’s in the South where Kentucky and Connecticut could meet. There was already a Big East team in the other three spots where a No. 9 seed could go, and the priority is keeping teams on their true seedlines over avoiding rematches.
Breakdown: In the end, I guess all of this was just bluster. The point of this bracket projection — even in January — is to accurately determine what the Selection Committee would do if it had to select and seed the field today. With that as the overriding standard, I found myself unable to move Texas or Duke ahead of Kentucky for the last No. 1 seed. If I wanted to make a bracket of what should happen, we’d have an entirely different projection. UK is still just 13th in the BTI seeding model, but that is a seeding model based on an entire season of play and pro-rated for what’s happened so far. This is a bracket based on less than three months of play, and so sometimes we’re left with guesswork. My best guess is that Kentucky would get the nod over Duke and Texas right now. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
|
Tagged A.J. Ogilvy, ACC, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Monday, Big Ten, Boston College, Brigham Young, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colonial, Connecticut, Courtney Fortson, Dayton, DePaul, Duke, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia, Illinois, Ivy League, Jeffrey Taylor, Jermaine Beal, John Jenkins, Jon Leuer, Kansas, Kansas State, Ken Pomeroy, Kentucky, LaSalle, Louisville, LSU, Maryland, Massachusetts, Matt Painter, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Rick Barnes, Rick Stansbury, San Diego State, Sean Miller, SEC, Seth Greenberg, South Carolina, South Florida, St. Joseph's, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Texas, Texas A&M, Travis Ford, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Virgina Tech, Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, William & Mary, Wisconsin, Xavier
|
November 15, 2009 –
by Brendon
In sum: Central Florida got the Conference USA’s season started off right with an impressive victory over UMass, but SMU missed a chance to knock off a Big East team later on Friday night. Memphis had no problems with Jackson State in the debuts of Josh Pastner and Elliott Williams. Also notable is Ben Braun and Rice going 3-0 on the weekend to match its entire win total from just two seasona ago. As a whole, the league went 13-4 across the opening weekend.
Team of the week: Central Florida. In the first game since Jermaine Taylor’s graduation, the Knights got to the line a ton and made a much higher percentage of shots than the Minutemen. That’s often a good recipe for success, and it was in the 17-point win.
|
Poss |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Reb |
FTR |
| UMass |
73 |
0.92 |
0.420 |
0.164 |
0.330 |
0.130 |
| UCF |
73 |
1.15 |
0.609 |
0.219 |
0.328 |
0.309 |
Individually, Isaac Sosa was the story. He shot 45 percent on 126 3-point attempts last season, and he hit 6-of-7 on Friday night. If we were wondering who would soak up some of the possessions that Taylor left behind, we’ve surely found part of our answer. Read More »
Posted in Mid-Majors, Reviews/Previews
|
Tagged Arizona, Auburn, Ben Braun, Central Florida, Conference USA, Elliott Williams, Georgia, Houston, Isaac Sosa, Jackson State, Jermaine Taylor, Josh Pastner, Kansas, Massachusetts, Matt Doherty, Memphis, Miami (Fla.), Mid-Majors, Nevada, Rice, SMU, Texas A&M, Tulane
|
November 15, 2009 –
by Brendon
In sum: It wasn’t a pretty weekend for the SEC West against small Northeast programs. After Auburn nearly fell to Niagara on Friday night, Mississippi State did lose to Rider. A day later, Cornell knocked off Alabama in Anthony Grant’s debut. As a whole, the league went 8-2, and, in the most highly anticipated game, Kentucky defeated Morehead State behind terrific play from freshman Eric Bledsoe and junior Patrick Patterson.
Team of the week: Mississippi. There is great popular support behind Andy Kennedy getting the Rebels to break through and make the NCAAs in this his fourth season, and their opening performance won’t weaken that support. Chris Warren was back and healthy. He didn’t shoot well (1-for-7 from deep), but he did have seven steals in a 92-64 win over a decent Arkansas-Little Rock team. Mississippi forced 22 turnovers and, as a result, attempted 22 more field goals than the Trojans. Senior DeAundre Cranston scored 21 points in just 21 minutes. Read More »
Posted in Reviews/Previews, SEC
|
Tagged Alabama, Alcorn State, Andy Kennedy, Anthony Grant, Arkansas, Arkansas-Little Rock, Auburn, Chris Warren, Cornell, DeAundre Cranston, Eric Bledsoe, Georgia, Indiana, Jarvis Varnado, Kentucky, LaSalle, Louisville, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri State, Morehead State, Niagara, North Carolina State, Ohio State, Patrick Patterson, Providence, Rick Stansbury, Rider, Rotnei Clarke, Ryan Thompson, SEC, South Carolina, St. Mary's, Tennessee, UAB, UCF, Vanderbilt
|
November 9, 2009 –
by Brendon
Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:
• ACC
• Big 12
• Big East
• Big Ten
• Pac-10
• SEC
• Mid-Majors
With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.
ACC
Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »
Posted in National Perspective
|
Tagged 2009-10 season preview, A.J. Ogilvy, ACC, Al Skinner, Al-Farouq Aminu, Alabama, Alonzo Gee, Andy Kennedy, Anthony Crater, Anthony Grant, Arinze Onuaku, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Augustus Gilchrist, Austin Freeman, Avery Bradley, Baylor, Ben Braun, Ben Howland, Big East, Big Ten, Bill Carmody, Bill Self, Bo Ryan, Bobby Gonzalez, Boston College, Brad Tinsley, Brandon Triche, Brigham Young, Bruce Pearl, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Carleton Scott, Cashmere Wright, Chandler Parsons, Chase Budinger, Chinemelu Elonu, Chris Johnson, Chris Warren, Chris Wright, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Conference USA, Connecticut, Cory Higgins, Courtney Fortson, Craig Brackins, Craig Moore, Craig Robinson, Creighton, Damion James, Dante Cunningham, Dar Tucker, Darryl Bryant, David Huertas, Dayton, DeJuan Blair, DeMarre Carroll, Demetri McCamey, Demontez Stitt, Denis Clemente, Deon Thompson, Deonta Vaughn, DePaul, Derek Glasser, Derrick Favors, DeShawn Sims, Devan Downey, Dexter Pittman, Doc Sadler, Dominique Jones, Duke, Dwayne Anderson, Dwight Lewis, Ed Davis, Elliott Williams, Ernie Kent, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Frank Haith, Frank Lickliter, Frank Martin, Fred Hill, Gani Lawal, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Greg Echenique, Greg McDermott, Greg Monroe, Greivis Vasquex, Herb Pope, Herb Sendek, Horizon, Howard Thompkins, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Isaiah Thomas, J.T. Tiller, JaJuan Johnson, Jake Kelly, Jamelle Cornley, James Anderson, James Harden, JaMychal Green, Jarvis Varnado, Jeff Bzdelik, Jeff Capel, Jeff Leo, Jeff Pendergraph, Jeff Peterson, Jeffrey Taylor, Jeremiah Rivers, Jermaine Beal, Jerome Dyson, Jerome Randle, Jerry Wainwright, Joe Mazulla, John Beilein, John Henson, John Jackson, John Pelphrey, John Riek, John Thompson III, John Wall, Johnny Dawkins, Jon Brockman, Jon Scheter, Jonny Flynn, Jordan Hill, Josh Owens, Jrue Holiday, Junior Cadougan, Justin Dentmon, Kalin Lucas, Kansas, Kansas State, Keaton Nankivil, Kemba Walker, Ken Bone, Kenny Boynton, Keno Davis, Kentucky, Keon Lawrence, Kevin Coble, Kevin O'Neill, Kevin Stallings, Klay Thompson, Kyle Singler, LaceDarius Dunn, Lance Stephenson, Landry Fields, Lazar Hayward, Leo Lyons, Leonard Hamilton, Lorenzo Brown, Lorenzo Romar, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, MAAC, Manny Harris, Marcus Thornton, Mark Fox, Mark Turgeon, Marquette, Marshon Brooks, Maryland, Memphis, Miami (Fla.), Michael Dunigan, Michael Snaer, Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Mike Davis, Mike Montgomery, Mike Rosario, Mike Singletary, Mikhail Torrance, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Mouphtaou Yarou, Murphy Holloway, Nebraska, Niagara, Nic Wise, Nick Calathes, Norm Roberts, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Oregon, Oregon State, Pac-10, Pat Knight, Patrick Christopher, Patrick Patterson, Paul Gause, Paul Hewitt, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Quincy Pondexter, Raymar Morgan, Renardo Sidney, Rick Barnes, Rick Jackson, Rick Stansbury, Rihards Kuksiks, Robbie Hummel, Roy Williams, Rutgers, Samardo Samuels, Scoop Jardine, Scott Drew, Scott Martin, Sean Miller, SEC, Senario Hillman, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, Sharaud Curry, Sidney Lowe, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Cal, St. John's, Stan Heath, Stanford, Stanley Pringle, Stanley Robinson, Sylvan Landesburg, Syracuse, Talor Battle, Tennessee, Terrico White, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Theo Robertson, Tim Abromaitis, Tim Floyd, Tom Crean, Toney Douglas, Tony Bennett, Travis Ford, Trevor Booker, Tubby Smith, Tulsa, Ty Abbott, Tyler Smith, Tyler Zeller, Tyrese Rice, Tyrone Nash, UCLA, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Vernon Macklin, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, WAC, Wake Forest, Washington, Washington State, Wayne Chism, Wesley Johnson, West Coast, West Virginia, Willie Warren, Wisconsin, Xavier, Zaire Taylor
|
November 4, 2009 –
by Brendon
2008-09 in review: It’s not a stretch to write that the SEC experienced the worst season of any major conference this decade with its showing last winter. The league played such a weak non-conference schedule and played so poorly out of conference that four 20-win teams didn’t get a bid to the NCAA Tournament — Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, Auburn — and no one really complained. In mid-February, the first three of those teams looked like they had a pretty good shot at dancing, but Florida finished 2-4, Kentucky finished 1-5, and South Carolina finished 3-4. Those four teams combined for just six wins in 23 games against top-50 teams.
If it wasn’t for Mississippi State’s — umm, not sure “stirring” is the right word — successful run to the SEC title, the SEC would have gotten just two teams into the NCAAs. Even with the third bid, not a single SEC team got a seed better than No. 8, and none were left standing once North Carolina pulled away from LSU on the first Saturday of the tournament. The SEC’s NCAA Tournament Conference Score of 0.33 was the worst of any major conference this decade.
What shouldn’t be lost in all of the negativity is the bounceback from LSU. In his first season as head coach, Trent Johnson leveraged Tasmin Mitchell and Marcus Thornton into the Tigers’ second SEC West title in four seasons. The Tigers have won 14, 5, 6 and 13 conference games in the last four seasons — you gotta love consistency. Read More »
Posted in SEC
|
Tagged 2009-10 season preview, Alabama, Alex Tyus, Alonzo Gee, Anthony Grant, Arkansas, Auburn, Billy Gillispie, Brendan Knox, Brian Williams, Bruce Pearl, Chris Johnson, Daniel Orton, Darnell Dodson, David Huertas, DeMarcus Cousins, Dennis Felton, DeWayne Reed, Dominique Archie, Eric Bledsoe, Florida, Frankie Sullivan, Garrett Temple, Georgia, J.P. Prince, Jeff Lebo, Jodie Meeks, John Calipari, John Jenkins, John Wall, Jon Hood, Kenny Boynton, Kentucky, Kevin Stallings, Korvotney Barber, LSU, Lucas Hargrove, Mark Fox, Mark Gottfried, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Murphy Holloway, NCAA Tournament Conference Score, Nick Calathes, Patrick Patterson, Quantez Robertson, Rasheem Barrett, Renardo Sidney, Rick Stansbury, SEC, South Carolina, Tasmin Mitchell, Tay Waller, Tennessee, Trent Johnson, Tyler Smith, Tyreke Evans, Vanderbilt, Wayne Chism, Zam Frederick
|
