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Saturday bubble update on eve of announcement

March 13, 2010 – by Brendon

New Locks: California, Georgia Tech, San Diego State, UNLV

Last 10 In:

1. Rhode Island (last in)
2. Illinois
3. Washington
4. Florida
5. Virginia Tech
6. San Diego State
7. Missouri
8. Wake Forest
9. Louisville
10. Georgia Tech

Last 10 Out:

1. Seton Hall (last out)
2. Mississippi
3. Mississippi State
4. Wichita State
5. Memphis
6. Minnesota
7. UAB
8. William & Mary
9. Cincinnati
10. South Florida

Breakdown: A few bubble teams finally took their destiny into their own hands on Friday. Georgia Tech, UNLV and San Diego State almost certainly nailed down bids with wins over ranked opponents, and Illinois is now likely to make the field as well. Those three Tech, UNLV, SDSU and California have been added as locks after Friday victories.

That leaves five at-large spots still up for grabs. Florida, Washington, Illinois and Virginia Tech are favorites to get four of those five spots, but any of those teams could be spilled if bubble teams still alive win today or if an at-large bid is swallowed up by a conference upset.

As far as bubble teams still with a shot to play their way in, Rhode Island, Minnesota and Mississippi State are the three to watch on Saturday. I have the Rams as the last team in right now, and they play Temple in the Atlantic 10 semifinals at 1 p.m ET; Minnesota takes on Purdue at 4 p.m. in the Big Ten semis; and Mississippi State gets Vanderbilt at 3:15 p.m. in the SEC semis. Wins by those teams would make them hard to keep out.

There are also a few conference tournaments where bids could be swallowed up. The Conference USA final is just underway with Houston taking on UTEP. A win by the Cougars over regular-season champ UTEP would surely eat up an at-large bid, as the Miners are almost certainly in. In the WAC, New Mexico State will try to upset Utah State at 10 p.m. The good news for bubble teams is that the host Nevada Wolfpack lost to NMSU, so Utah State won’t have to battle against an adversarial crowd.

In the ACC, two teams — Miami and North Carolina State — are still alive, and either would steal an at-large bid with two more wins. Duke and Georgia Tech will be heavy favorites in the ACC semifinals at 1:30 and 3:30 p.m., but the Canes and Wolfpack are dangerous enough to make it interesting.

I figure that out of Mississippi State, Minnesota and Rhode Island winning and one of the bids getting swallowed up by a spoiler, at least one of those will happen to secure that last open at large spot. If none of those happen, it would bring a Seton Hall, Mississippi, Wichita State or Memphis back into play. If more than one happens, Florida and Virginia Tech beware; and Illinois and Washington better win today to make it certain.

Posted in Bracket Junkie, Reviews/Previews | Tagged Bracket Junkie, California, Florida, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Memphis, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Rhode Island, San Diego State, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Washington, Wichita State | Comments (2)

Bracket Junkie: Welcoming four new teams to the field

March 8, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Note: Teams deemed at least 98-percent likely to make the NCAA Tournament are in bold. Three new at-large teams earned their bold tags over the weekend — Louisville, Oklahoma State and Wake Forest. Notre Dame and Virginia Tech just missed.

Moving In as At-large: Arizona State, Mississippi, San Diego State, Washington

Moving Out as At-large: Georgia Tech, Illinois, Rhode Island, UAB

Moving In as Automatic: Vermont (America East), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)

Moving Out as Automatic: Stony Brook (America East), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Coastal Carolina (Big South)

On the Bubble: There was a lot of shuffling around the bubble this weekend with several teams suffering near-devastating losses. Georgia Tech and Illinois both had blowout losses at home. The loss for the Yellow Jackets is their third in five and fifth in seven, and more importantly, it puts them at 7-9 in conference. To me, Illinois only looked like an NCAA Tournament team for about a week all season — when it beat Wisconsin and Michigan State. We’ll see if that 10-8 conference record is enough to override losing five of six and dropping games to Georgia, Bradley and Utah out of conference. Rhode Island lost its fifth of seven against 18-loss UMass in Amherst on Saturday. That will be hard to overcome. Finally, UAB needed to win one of its two tough games this week, but the Blazers lost both by a total of seven points, including a 52-50 win at C-USA champ UTEP on Saturday. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged Arizona State, Baylor, Brigham Young, California, Charlotte, Clemson, Connecticut, Dayton, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Michigan State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, Seton Hall, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UAB, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State, William & Mary, Wisconsin, Xavier | Comments (2)

Bracket Junkie: Bubble squalor nine days out

March 5, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Notes: Ohio State was moved from Milwaukee to Providence, and Pittsburgh was moved from Providence to Milwaukee so that Brigham Young could be placed in a pod where the Cougars would be able to avoid a Sunday game. This is the first time I’ve had to move pod assignments because of Brigham Young, and I hope it’s the last. Also, in the conference bid breakdowns, I am going to put teams I consider locks for the NCAA Tournament in bold. My definition of a lock is a team that could lose out and would still be at least 98-percent likely to get in. Right now, I have 31 teams as locks plus 22 other bids accounted for by conference champions. That leaves 12 spots still up for grabs, though Oklahoma State and Louisville are just about locked in.

Bracketing Challenges: Kansas slips just past Syracuse and into the top overall seed position after defeating Kansas State on Wednesday. This is very close, however, and the top overall seed will likely come down to who goes further in their conference tournaments. Kentucky could also be in the mix if it wins the SEC Tournament and neither Kansas nor Syracuse wins its conference tournament.

I don’t see how Duke is not still a No. 1 seed. The Blue Devils have three top-25 wins, same as Kentucky; and nine top-50 wins, four more than Kentucky. Of course, Duke has three more losses than the Wildcats, but is it possible that the difference in losses can be found in the difference between Kentucky’s 41st-ranked strength of schedule and Duke’s seventh-ranked one? Yet, Duke is on the No. 2 seed line for some people, and Kentucky is firmly ensconced as a No. 1. Interesting. The Blue Devils’ grip on a top seed is not firm, and a slip-up in the conference tournament could combine with a conference tournament championship for any of a half-dozen teams to knock Duke off the line, but right now, I don’t find a compelling argument against Duke.

As a whole, I really feel comfortable with the way I’ve seeded these teams. There are some tricky seedings on lines four through seven, but — with the exception of the teams I moved up or down for conference balancing, most of the seeds “feel” right. Many of you may disagree with that assessment, and feel free to voice your differences in the comments section or via e-mail. Nine days to go until Selection Sunday!

Moving In as At-large: Memphis, Rhode Island

Moving Out as At-large: Connecticut, Dayton

Moving In as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)

Moving Out as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

On the Bubble: Though I like the seeding for this projection, the bubble is an absolute mess. Any of the last five in could reasonably be left out. The problem is finding the teams to replace them. Illinois has lost four of five and still can’t manage to find its way out of the field. Rhode Island dropped four of five before it vaulted back in with a comfortable home win over Charlotte. Memphis enters the field for the first time after a road win over UAB, but the Blazers maintain their spot thanks to a strong non-conference performance and an 11-4 record in the Conference USA. Saint Mary’s hasn’t played since Saturday, and that was more than good enough to stay in the field. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Austin Freeman, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Brigham Young, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Dayton, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Jon Leuer, Kalin Lucas, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Memphis, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, New Mexico, Northern Iowa, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Pac-10, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, SEC, Seton Hall, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, UAB, UNLV, Utah State, UTEP, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier | Comments (1)

Bracket Junkie: Big Ten injuries likely to affect seeds

February 26, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: I’ll discuss the biggest challenge — finding the final at-large team — in the “On the Bubble” section below. As far as seeding challenges, the Big Ten’s penchant for major injuries is causing a lot of ambiguity. Injuries to Purdue’s Robbie Hummel, Ohio State’s Evan Turner and Michigan State’s Kalin Lucas are all likely to affect their teams’ seeding. In this projection, Purdue gets bumped down to a No. 2 seed after word that Hummel will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL suffered at Minnesota on Wednesday. Lucas is back now, of course, but Michigan State lost the game that Lucas was injured in, the game he missed and the game in which he came back. I think the Spartans are being given too large a benefit of the doubt, as MSU lost by 18 to Wisconsin in the game in which Lucas was injured and by 12 at home to Purdue in the game in which he returned, but they move from a No. 6 to a No. 5 because of that injury. Finally, Ohio State lost three of six when Turner was injured, but is 12-3 since his return. OSU gets a bump from a No. 5 to a No. 3. It’s educated guesswork at this point.

Moving In as At-large: (none)

Moving Out as At-large: (none)

Moving In as Automatic: (none)

Moving Out as Automatic: (none)

On the Bubble: This was the toughest time I’ve had this season filling out the field. Thirty-three of the 34 at-large bids were easy to find, but the last team proved elusive. My model showed only five teams with a legitimate case — Charlotte, Cincinnati, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State and Seton Hall. Charlotte and Cincy actually rated out highest, but SDSU’s strong RPI (37) and recent play put the Aztecs in. The Bearcats continue to have an underrated profile thanks to non-conference wins over Maryland and Vanderbilt. Their four wins against RPI top-50 teams — which includes a sweep of UConn — are more than any other team under consideration. With wins over Gonzaga and Kansas out of conference, Arizona squeaked in last season despite losing five of its last six, including a first-round Pac-10 Tournament loss after a 9-9 conference season. Cincinnati could be this year’s Arizona, only with a finish that’s easier for the committee to stomach. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Arizona, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Brigham Young, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Conference USA, Dayton, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Kalin Lucas, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Marquette, Memphis, Michigan State, Minnesota, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, New Mexico, Northern Iowa, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rhode Island, Robbie Hummel, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, SEC, Seton Hall, St. John's, Temple, Tennessee, UAB, UNLV, Utah State, UTEP, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Tech, WAC, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier | Comments (6)

Bracket Junkie: Plenty of posturing, no changes in at-large field

February 19, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: There were a couple of challenges I want to make note of, the first coming at the end of the No. 3 seedline. The battle here was between Vanderbilt and Baylor, who have very similar profiles. Both teams are 19-5 and have two wins against the RPI top 25. I went with the Commodores primarily because their two top-25 wins come in just three chances. Also, their conference RPI is 3. Only Kansas (1) and Duke (2) are ranked higher for play within the conference.

The other thing I wanted to address is Wake Forest. After the Demon Deacons’ loss to Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, I dropped them from a No. 5 to a No. 7, which is quite harsh. Wake ranks 23rd in my BTI seed model, which should equate to a No. 6 seed. However, Butler and Ohio State rate out on the No. 7 seedline, and I feel like both would surely be higher than that right now. So, I bumped the Bears and Buckeyes to No. 6’s at the expense of Richmond and Wake Forest. One could argue that Xavier — which is ranked 21st in the model — should have been the one to get bumped down, and I wouldn’t put up too much resistance in my rebuttal. I just didn’t go in that direction. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Arizona State, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Conference USA, Connecticut, Duke, Florida, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Memphis, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Pac-10, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rhode Island, San Diego State, SEC, Seton Hall, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Cal, St. Mary's, Texas, UAB, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Washington, Wichita State, William & Mary, Wisconsin | Comments (1)

Bracket Junkie: Big 12 is back to Big Eight

February 12, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: This bracket came together well, but there were still a few challenges. Most notably, any of the last three teams in the field could easily be omitted. South Carolina, Texas Tech and VCU have thin cases, but I found them marginally more compelling than Mississippi, Florida, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and Louisville. If the bracket were announced today, I would not be very confident in those final three teams.

The other challenge continues to be in filling out the top four seedlines. Finding the last two No. 3 seeds was particularly difficult with the poor play of Texas and after Wisconsin’s home defeat to Illinois. Still, the full-season profiles of those two teams remains stronger than Vanderbilt, Gonzaga and the others on the No. 4 seedline. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Bruce Weber, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Cornell, Demetri McCamey, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Harvard, Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, Ivy League, Jerome Randle, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Pat Knight, Purdue, Richmond, Rick Barnes, SEC, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, South Carolina, South Florida, St. John's, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin | Comments (3)

Bracket Junkie: An unholy mess

February 5, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.

It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.

Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Augustus Gilchrist, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Brigham Young, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Connecticut, Cornell, Dayton, DePaul, Derrick Williams, Dominique Jones, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Leonard Hamilton, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Robert Morris, Rutgers, Scott Drew, SEC, Seton Hall, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Stan Heath, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington, Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier | Comments (3)

Do road L’s, defensive meltdowns mean no Final Four for Duke?

February 3, 2010 – by Brendon

After a very public humiliation in front of millions of viewers, thousands of fans at the Verizon Center and the President of the United States against Georgetown on Saturday, Duke will be back in action in Durham on Thursday, hosting Georgia Tech. Though some of the Blue Devils’ recent performances may make it absurd to ask, I wonder whether Duke’s play means it’s fighting against trends to make its first Final Four since 2004. The Blue Devils still rank second in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, and the team that’s finished second in the rankings has made the Final Four four times in the last six years and won the title twice — Florida in 2007 and Connecticut in 2004 — but a couple of trends are evident.

I’m approaching this from two directions — bad defensive games and road play. I want to see whether the last 24 Final Four teams have had defensive games or road records to match Duke’s this season. The Blue Devils have twice — against North Carolina State and Georgetown most recently — allowed opponents to score at least 1.2 points per possession. The Blue Devils are also 1-4 on the road this season. Let’s look at these two issues separately and in the light of how past Final Four participants have fared. Read More »

Posted in ACC, National Perspective | Tagged Cincinnati, Duke, Florida, George Washington, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Greg Oden, Illinois, Jeff Green, Jon Scheyer, Ken Pomeroy, Mike Conley, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Ohio State, Old Dominion, Pittsburgh, St. John's, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin | Comments (6)

« Older posts

Saturday bubble update on eve of announcement

Bracket Junkie: Welcoming four new teams to the field

Bracket Junkie: Bubble squalor nine days out

Bracket Junkie: Big Ten injuries likely to affect seeds

Bracket Junkie: Plenty of posturing, no changes in at-large field

Bracket Junkie: Big 12 is back to Big Eight

Bracket Junkie: An unholy mess

Do road L’s, defensive meltdowns mean no Final Four for Duke?

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