February 12, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Bracketing Challenges: This bracket came together well, but there were still a few challenges. Most notably, any of the last three teams in the field could easily be omitted. South Carolina, Texas Tech and VCU have thin cases, but I found them marginally more compelling than Mississippi, Florida, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and Louisville. If the bracket were announced today, I would not be very confident in those final three teams.
The other challenge continues to be in filling out the top four seedlines. Finding the last two No. 3 seeds was particularly difficult with the poor play of Texas and after Wisconsin’s home defeat to Illinois. Still, the full-season profiles of those two teams remains stronger than Vanderbilt, Gonzaga and the others on the No. 4 seedline. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
|
Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Bruce Weber, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Cornell, Demetri McCamey, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Harvard, Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, Ivy League, Jerome Randle, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Pat Knight, Purdue, Richmond, Rick Barnes, SEC, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, South Carolina, South Florida, St. John's, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin
|
February 8, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Breakdown: After a weekend of travel, I’ll have to be brief. Look for a full breakdown on Friday. Villanova drops to the No. 2 seedline after a lopsided defeat at Georgetown. The Wildcats will have an immediate chance to take back that spot from the team that replaced them — West Virginia — when the two teams meet on Big Monday. Clemson sees another loss drop it near the cutline, and Florida State makes the jump to take the Tigers’ place. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
|
Tagged Arizona State, Cincinnati, Clemson, Dayton, Florida State, Georgetown, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier
|
February 5, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.
It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.
Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
|
Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Augustus Gilchrist, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Brigham Young, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Connecticut, Cornell, Dayton, DePaul, Derrick Williams, Dominique Jones, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Leonard Hamilton, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Robert Morris, Rutgers, Scott Drew, SEC, Seton Hall, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Stan Heath, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington, Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier
|
February 3, 2010 –
by Brendon
After a very public humiliation in front of millions of viewers, thousands of fans at the Verizon Center and the President of the United States against Georgetown on Saturday, Duke will be back in action in Durham on Thursday, hosting Georgia Tech. Though some of the Blue Devils’ recent performances may make it absurd to ask, I wonder whether Duke’s play means it’s fighting against trends to make its first Final Four since 2004. The Blue Devils still rank second in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, and the team that’s finished second in the rankings has made the Final Four four times in the last six years and won the title twice — Florida in 2007 and Connecticut in 2004 — but a couple of trends are evident.
I’m approaching this from two directions — bad defensive games and road play. I want to see whether the last 24 Final Four teams have had defensive games or road records to match Duke’s this season. The Blue Devils have twice — against North Carolina State and Georgetown most recently — allowed opponents to score at least 1.2 points per possession. The Blue Devils are also 1-4 on the road this season. Let’s look at these two issues separately and in the light of how past Final Four participants have fared. Read More »
Posted in ACC, National Perspective
|
Tagged Cincinnati, Duke, Florida, George Washington, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Greg Oden, Illinois, Jeff Green, Jon Scheyer, Ken Pomeroy, Mike Conley, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Ohio State, Old Dominion, Pittsburgh, St. John's, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin
|
February 1, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Breakdown: Perhaps the most difficult aspect to building this bracket was finding that last No. 3 seed. Out of Purdue, Kansas State, Duke, Texas and West Virginia, it was clear that two of them would be No. 2 seeds and three would be No. 3 seeds, but there was no obvious choice to fill out that third line. Just like in the last projection, I went with New Mexico over Brigham Young and any other team — Wisconsin, Tennessee, Baylor, Temple, Ohio State, Georgia Tech — that might have had a claim.
The good thing is that none of those teams had a very strong claim at that spot. New Mexico was the choice because its five wins against top-50 teams was more than any other team that hadn’t been bracketed, except Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, which also have five. New Mexico’s record (20-3), combined with a head-to-head win over Brigham Young, a six-game winning streak and a 10th ranking in my seeding model put the Lobos over the top. I’m not sure what the Selection Committee would do if presented this scenario, but the only other teams I could see them bracketing here are BYU, who — again — has lost to New Mexico head-to-head, or Ohio State, if the Buckeyes were given a complete pass for losses suffered when Evan Turner was injured. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
|
Tagged Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Baylor, Billy Donovan, Brigham Young, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Creighton, Dayton, Demetri McCamey, DePaul, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Illinois State, Indiana, Jimmy Butler, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rutgers, Sean Miller, South Carolina, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple, Tennesse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State, William & Mary, Wisconsin
|
January 29, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Notes: First, automatic bids for each conference are determined by conference record with tiebreakers broken by rank in our BTI model, not by head-to-head or other conference tiebreakers. Of course, every conference except for the Ivy League determines its ultimate automatic bid with a tournament, so conference tiebreakers really don’t matter much for our purposes. Second, there is one potential regular-season rematch in the first two rounds, and that’s in the South where Kentucky and Connecticut could meet. There was already a Big East team in the other three spots where a No. 9 seed could go, and the priority is keeping teams on their true seedlines over avoiding rematches.
Breakdown: In the end, I guess all of this was just bluster. The point of this bracket projection — even in January — is to accurately determine what the Selection Committee would do if it had to select and seed the field today. With that as the overriding standard, I found myself unable to move Texas or Duke ahead of Kentucky for the last No. 1 seed. If I wanted to make a bracket of what should happen, we’d have an entirely different projection. UK is still just 13th in the BTI seeding model, but that is a seeding model based on an entire season of play and pro-rated for what’s happened so far. This is a bracket based on less than three months of play, and so sometimes we’re left with guesswork. My best guess is that Kentucky would get the nod over Duke and Texas right now. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
|
Tagged A.J. Ogilvy, ACC, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Monday, Big Ten, Boston College, Brigham Young, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colonial, Connecticut, Courtney Fortson, Dayton, DePaul, Duke, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia, Illinois, Ivy League, Jeffrey Taylor, Jermaine Beal, John Jenkins, Jon Leuer, Kansas, Kansas State, Ken Pomeroy, Kentucky, LaSalle, Louisville, LSU, Maryland, Massachusetts, Matt Painter, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Rick Barnes, Rick Stansbury, San Diego State, Sean Miller, SEC, Seth Greenberg, South Carolina, South Florida, St. Joseph's, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Texas, Texas A&M, Travis Ford, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Virgina Tech, Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, William & Mary, Wisconsin, Xavier
|
January 27, 2010 –
by Brendon
A 2-6 stretch from mid-December to mid-January took Seton Hall off many NCAA Tournament radars, but the Pirates are proving that they are good enough to compete for a berth. With two straight wins, SHU is back to 3-4 in conference, and the schedule lightens up — a little — from here on out. In my preseason projections, I picked Seton Hall to make the NCAA Tournament, and there’s no reason to back off that now, even if it might be as the eighth or ninth Big East team in the field.
Right now, the Pirates are just on the outside looking in — fifth out based on my at-large prediction model, but here are some reasons why Seton Hall is good enough to hear its name called on March 14.
Depth: Coach Bobby Gonzalez always had kids who could play and play hard, he just never had enough of them. This season, he has 10 guys whom he’s comfortable playing at various times, and a solid eight-man rotation that could change depending on the opponent. The addition of three transfers — Herb Pope, Jeff Robinson and Keon Lawrence — and two freshmen — Jamel Jackson and Ferrakohn Hall — has allowed Gonzalez to keep his best players healthy and rested. That has helped Seton Hall down the stretch of games and should help down the stretch of this season. Read More »
Posted in Big East
|
Tagged Bobby Gonzalez, Brandon Walters, Dominique Jones, Evan Turner, Ferrakohn Hall, Georgetown, Herb Pope, Jamel Jackson, Jeff Robinson, Jeremy Hazell, John Garcia, Jon Leuer, Keon Lawrence, Louisville, Mike Davis, Pittsburgh, Providence, Quincy Pondexter, Scottie Reynolds, Seth Davis, Seton Hall, South Florida, Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin
|
January 22, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Breakdown: This is our first projection of the season, as I like to wait until most teams have at least four conference games under their belts. It’s not until about now that you can really get a good gauge on a team. Everything up until now is primarily guesswork. Even so, there is a lot on this bracket that will look strange come March. The question is what. The answers will be revealed over the next seven weeks. One predictions: the Colonial Athletic Association will have fewer than three teams in the field.
For a frame of reference, in our first projection last season on Jan. 25, Kentucky and Florida were No. 6 seeds, and Georgetown was a No. 7; none of those three made the NCAAs. On the other hand, the Nos. 1-5 seeds all made the NCAAs. The four teams that ended the season as No. 1 seeds were 1, 1, 2 and 3 in our first projection. Ten of the teams seeded on the first four lines of last year’s first projection ended up as top-four seeds by March. So, there is perhaps more stability than one might expect. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
|
Tagged ACC, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colonial, Connecticut, Dayton, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northeastern, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Pac-10, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, SEC, South Carolina, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, William & Mary, Wisconsin, Xavier
|
