Moving In as At-large: Minnesota (UTEP and Utah State ate up two at-large bids)

Moving Out as At-large: Florida, Illinois, Rhode Island

On the Bubble: As with most people, our breakdown came down primarily to five teams — Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Florida, Illinois and Mississippi State — for two spots. We also tried to give fair consideration to Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Wichita State, Memphis, Mississippi, William & Mary and UAB, among others. At the end, though, in came down to those five.

All five teams have a variety of strengths and weaknesses, obviously, or they wouldn’t be in the situation that they are. Mississippi State turned out to be the easiest to eliminate thanks to a rash of bad losses compared to a dearth of quality wins, this despite wins over Florida and Vanderbilt in the last two days. The Bulldogs can, of course, play their way in with a win over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament final. We would reconsider Minnesota and Virginia Tech at that time, but our preliminary determination is that VaTech would be out should MSU knock off UK.

On the other end, Minnesota became the easiest team to add. With such a long list of quality wins (Ohio State, vs. Michigan State, vs. Butler, vs. Purdue, Wisconsin) and a strong finish (7-2 heading into the Big Ten Tournament final), the Gophers became the top choice of these five even with a loss to Ohio State. A blowout loss for Tubby Smith’s club against OSU could make us reconsider, but that would be very late in the game to make a change.

With Minnesota in the field and owning a recent road win at Illinois to help get there, it seemed unlikely that the Big Ten would get the last two spots. Illinois, like Minnesota, has its share of strong wins (vs. Wisconsin, at Wisconsin, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, at Clemson), but the Illini played very poorly down the stretch until the Big Ten Tournament and has a bunch of bad losses. It feels cruel to leave a team out after a double-overtime loss to a No. 2 seed, but that’s what we’re doing.

That left us with Virginia Tech vs. Florida. Neither team has terrific wins, but VaTech went 10-6 in the stronger ACC (albeit against a weaker-than-normal schedule). VaTech also had a much stronger finish until the slip-up in the ACC Tournament. Florida also has the worse losses — at South Carolina, at Georgia and, inexplicably, at home to South Alabama. VaTech’s losses at BC and to Miami in the ACC Tourney look less egregious in that light.

We’re not entirely comfortable with the SEC getting just three teams, but the quality wins just aren’t there. We’d also prefer to have a different last two in than Joe Lunardi, but you gotta go with what you believe will happen. We think it’s very close among these last two in and last two out, and we definitely were tortured by the decision.

Seeding: The main areas where we had extended debates over seeding were at the No. 3 and 4 lines. We like Villanova as a No. 3 and Purdue, Tennessee and Wisconsin as No. 4’s, but we had four very evenly-matched teams fighting for three No. 3 seeds: Temple, New Mexico, Baylor and Pittsburgh. We decided on New Mexico with its strong record overall, Mountain West regular-season title and 4-0 record against the top 25. We also liked Baylor’s many strong wins and fine play in a very good conference. The last decision came down to Temple and Pittsburgh (this is, again, assuming Temple wins the Atlantic 10 Tournament title). The nod went to Pittsburgh because Temple’s top-50 wins are bolstered by three over non-NCAA Tournament team Rhode Island, and we think it’s more likely that a team that tied for second in the Big East will get the nod as a No. 3 seed rather than another mid-major on the same line as New Mexico. This was a very difficult call.

A lot of the mid-seeds were, as usual, quite fungible. The good teams from weaker leagues — Gonzaga, Utah State, Siena, Old Dominion, UTEP — were among the hardest teams to seed. We also ran into issues with too many ACC teams on the 1/4/5/8/9/12 seed lines as well as too many Big East teams on the 2/3/6/7/10/11 seed lines. We’ve made what we thought were the most likely adjustments. We still may decide to move teams differently to accommodate conference balancing. For instance, we’re not all that comfortable with swapping Clemson and Oklahoma State, but we’ll see if there’s a better solution. Perhaps a Georgia Tech victory over Duke will solve that problem for us.

As far as the top two seed lines, we quickly came to a consensus on the eight teams. I do see that Georgetown is not commonly a No. 2 seed in the latest projections at the Bracket Matrix. The Hoyas were our lowest two, but they had enough strong performances on the season, especially once Austin Freeman was fully healthy in the Big East Tournament, to get the nod. It seems like Villanova is the team most commonly supplanting the Hoyas, and the Wildcats are our top No. 3, so that’s not out of line. We just think the Hoyas as a No. 2 is more likely. They had a very difficult conference schedule, playing Syracuse and Villanova twice, which makes the 10-8 league record a bit less onerous. That record is 13-9 when you include the Big East Tournament, which is not as far from 13-6, Nova’s conference record including postseason. You also have to consider that Georgetown has two more wins against the top 50 and played a much tougher non-conference schedule.

At the top line, there seems to be a growing push for West Virginia to be a No. 1, and we will indeed reconsider Duke if the Blue Devils lose in the ACC Tournament final. For now, though, under the assumption that Duke pulls the double with an ACC regular-season and tournament title, it would be hard to deny the Devils their due.

Upcoming Updates: With the way this weekend has gone, we fully expect to need to update this projection after the set of 1 p.m. tournament title games. We’ll put up a new post with any changes in the 3 p.m. EDT hour. Thanks again for your comments on various rematch/hosting issues — it’s a been a long week.

The shot was Butler’s second last-second make of the tournament, besting — in impact if not improbability — his fallaway, banked 3-pointer to top Cincinnati on Thursday. The senior scored 20 points on the night and was named the tournament’s most outstanding player.

The quotable Butler described the final play best.

“We ran the same play that we set up for the Cincinnati game,” he said. “I came up to the top of the key, and I had to come get the ball, and they switched. I think Monroe was on me, and I think he had a feeling I was going to shoot a three. I had a little hesitation, went around him, and Freeman stepped up. I had a little hop step and scooped the lay-up off the glass, and it fell.”

Despite never trailing in the second half, West Virginia’s win wasn’t as comfortable as it might have been.

The Mountaineers have been guilty of building leads and then squandering them in this Big East Tournament, and it was no different on Saturday night. After taking a 50-41 lead on Kevin Jones’ elbow jumper with 7:30 to play, the Mountaineers went cold — they scored just two points in their next six possessions — and Georgetown made shots to get back in the game.

Freeman keyed the Hoyas comeback. After taking a supporting role to Chris Wright for most of the game, Freeman hit a three to cut the lead to 50-47 with 6:02 to play. After the two teams traded baskets for five minutes — including a Freeman follow of a missed Wright 3-pointer — it was Freeman who nailed a 3-pointer from the right side to tie the score at 56-56 with 53 seconds left.

On West Virginia’s next possession, Butler was short on a 3-pointer, but Devin Ebanks grabbed the Mountaineers’ 20th offensive rebound of the game, and Chris Wright was called for a hold on Joe Mazzulla. The red-shirt junior — playing his best game in two seasons — made both free throws to give the Mountaineers a 58-56 lead with 27.6 seconds to play. Mazzulla’s free throws gave West Virginia its 20th and 21st second-chance points of the game, 11 more than Georgetown’s total.

Wright, atoning for his foul, drove the length of the floor and beat Mazzulla with a nifty spin and finish to reknot the score with 18 seconds left.

West Virginia had the ball with the shotclock off but nearly gave away the chance to win the game in regulation. Mazzulla was in trouble near midcourt, but he found Ebanks with a pass to extract himself from that trouble, and Bob Huggins wisely called for time with nine seconds left. That set up the remarkable conclusion by Butler.

Down two after Butler’s make, Georgetown still had four seconds and one of the quickest guards in the league. Monroe in-bounded the ball to Wright who raced coast-to-coast, but his acrobatic attempt in the lane came up short. Wright lay in a heap on the baseline for an extended period of time but walked off the court under his own power.

“I was thinking about getting to the basket, trying to finish, trying to get a layup,” said Wright, who led Georgetown with 20 points and seven assists, when asked about whether considered pulling up for a game-winning 3-pointer instead of going all the way to the rim. “I had time on the clock. I wasn’t thinking of pulling up — just get over to the basket and get to overtime.”

Georgetown lost this game despite shooting for a higher percentage, getting to the foul line more often and turning the ball over less often than West Virginia. The Mountaineers won this game on the offensive glass.

West Virginia is the best offensive rebounding team in the conference but figured to have a challenge against Georgetown, who ranks fourth in defensive rebounding. That was not the case. The Mountaineers had nine offensive rebounds in the first half and 11 in the second half. Those 11 helped West Virginia score more points in the half (26) than there were possessions (25) despite a woeful 36 percent eFG in the last 20 minutes.

“We shot 38 percent against — that’s a heck of a team; they’re very good,” said Huggins. “You shoot 38 percent and win, you’re doing something right.”

That something was offensive rebounding.

“They’re just persistent,” said Georgetown head coach John Thompson III about West Virginia’s rebounding prowess. “They have guys that go after it.”

Wellington Smith was the key man on the glass and may have been the most influential player in the game. He was credited with six offensive rebounds and was most responsible for the nine-point lead that West Virginia built. Smith was given the task of guarding Monroe in the post and did it better than anyone has this tournament. Smith was physical with Monroe, tried to prevent him from going to his preferred left side and, most importantly, fronted him in the post on almost every occasion.

“I was trying to not let him catch the ball, try to deny him as much as I can,” said Smith. “He’s the engine that runs their team, so it’s important for us to not let him touch the ball.”

“They were denying me really hard and making it very difficult to get the ball in the post,” said Monroe. “They were sending extra help from both sides — from the top and from the baseline. So, they kind of made it real hard for me to score and get the ball.”

As a result, Monroe attempted just seven field goals and had a modest three assists, unable to make the same impact he made against the much smaller Marquette team he powered past on Friday night.

When Smith left the game after picking up his fourth foul with 8:04 to play, the Mountaineers had a seven-point lead. When he returned at the 2:04 mark, the lead had shrunk to just one. As it turned out, his impact in the game was through, since he picked up a reach-in foul on Wright almost immediately. Still, 11 points, 10 rebounds, two blocks and fabulous defense on Monroe had left its mark.

West Virginia’s defense may have allowed a pedestrian 1.12 points per possession, but that was a much better mark than either Syracuse or Marquette could hold the Hoyas to the previous two days. Despite not turning it over — a traditional Achilles’ heel for the Hoyas — they were less efficient than they needed to be because they didn’t make shots.

The Hoyas are the best shooting team in the Big East with a 56.5 eFG. It’s the only thing the Hoyas do particularly well on offense, but it’s the most important thing an offense can do well. The problem is, when the shots aren’t falling or the defense is particularly difficult to handle — as West Virginia is, thanks to its length — there is no Plan B. GU is a better shooting team than WVU, but the Mountaineers also have a Plan B, namely the offensive rebounding. Without a Plan B, the Hoyas came up achingly short after the 39.2 percent 3-point-shooting team made just 4-of-16 (25 percent).

“You have to give credit to them and their ability to contest shots,” said Thompson about West Virginia’s 3-point defense. “We got some looks we normally make that didn’t go in — long guys running at you — but I don’t think it was a question of fatigue.”

Another Plan B came through for the Mountaineers in backup point guard Joe Mazzulla. Starter Darryl Bryant was ineffective to start the game. He wasn’t getting West Virginia into its offense, and the Moutaineers scored just one point on their first seven possessions with Bryant in the game. When Mazzulla entered, West Virginia was able to run better sets and the points started to come.

In the first 11 possessions after Mazzulla entered the game with 14:57 left in the first half, West Virginia scored 20 points to turn an 8-1 deficit into a 21-15 lead. West Virginia would never trail again. Mazzulla finished the game with seven assists and no turnovers, and, though he didn’t make any of his six field-goal attempts, he made all six of his free-throw attempts. Mazzulla, who has battled an injured left shoulder for two seasons, made his greatest impact since the end of his sophomore season in 2008.

“I thought he ran our team,” said Huggins. “He broke the defense down, got the ball to the basket for us. For a guy that they don’t think can shoot because of his shoulder, he went to the free-throw line and made shots for us. That’s what these guys are about.”

“These guys” will now head to the NCAA Tournament where they will try to avenge a first-round defeat last March. West Virginia is likely to be the top No. 2 seed, but there’s an outside shot of a No. 1 seed, especially if Duke loses in the ACC Tournament final. Georgetown is likely a No. 3 seed but could grab the last No. 2.

Wherever they end up, the Mountaineers will arrive as Big East champions, which thrilled a raucous and blue-and-gold-clad contingent from West Virginia, who roared from tip to trophy.

“They understand how much it means to the people in the state of West Virginia,” said Huggins of his team. “And they understand how much it means to the students at our university, and that’s because they are part of it.”

With Marquette playing no one taller than 6-foot-6, the 6-11 sophomore towered over his opposition, making brilliant feeds for scores and looking for his own shot as well. Monroe finished the game with 23 points, 13 rebounds, seven assists and two blocks, and Marquette found itself unable to combat the immense weapon.

“When he first got here, we were amazed at what he could do, especially the way he passes,” said Hoyas junior point guard Chris Wright. “We all know Greg is a phenomenal player. It’s not like he just started doing this in the Big East Tournament. So, we know he’s a great player.”

Georgetown held a working margin for most of the game, but the Golden Eagles occasionally made inroads, including a 10-0 run to draw within one with 13:34 left in the game. Marquette’s top scoring option, Lazar Hayward drove down the left side for the finish and picked up a block call on Hoyas forward Julian Vaughn to boot. Hayward converted the free throw to make the score 48-47, but that swish would be his 15th and final point.

Marquette went cold, scoring just eight points over its next 20 possessions. Georgetown’s bigs — Monroe and Vaughn — made drives to the lane treacherous. Each had two blocks and affected many more shots. The Golden Eagles’ 14-of-34 performance on 2-pointers was not atypical for a team that finished 13th in the Big East in 2-point percentage, but it made a mediocre outside shooting night from deep (6-for-20 on threes) too much to overcome.

“We were on fire the last 10 minutes of the game — we scored six points,” said a sarcastic Marquette head coach Buzz Williams. “We did not create enough paint touches. … Over the last 10 minutes tonight, we were awful, and they were super defensively.”

Without the shots falling, Marquette needed to get second and third chances to score, but Georgetown held the Golden Eagles to just five offensive rebounds. Monroe controlled the defensive glass with on that end.

“One thing that we really have come to notice is that he rebounds like anybody,” said Wright. “And he’s getting all the rebounds — there aren’t a lot of second shots or third shots for anybody.”

When the Golden Eagles couldn’t get a shot to fall down the stretch, the Hoyas made hay. They scored 30 points over the same 20 possessions when Marquette had eight to turn a one-point lead into the final margin of 23. Monroe’s partners in offensive execution started the run.

Wright used his strength and agility to first spin for a bucket against 5-foot-8 Maurice Acker and later draw a foul from the senior, making both free throws. Then, Austin Freeman scored with his left hand on a beautiful drive to the hoop to make it 54-47. After Marquette’s Jimmy Butler countered with an easy layup off a nice feed from Darius Johnson-Odom, Wright scored again to get the lead back to seven with 11:15 to play.

“I just think it was time for me to make a play,” said Wright of his run of scoring in the second half. “I just read the defense and made the correct plays. I wasn’t trying to be selfish or anything. It was just there were openings, and we were capitalizing on it.”

Monroe continued the onslaught with a nice feed to a cutting Wright. The junior was fouled by David Cubillan and made both shots. Hollis Thompson followed moments later with a gorgeous scoop to the hoop for a 60-51 lead with just less than 10 minutes left.

Monroe completed the run with a decisive move to the left baseline for a jam and then a deep three from the left sideline on a feed from Freeman. Finally, after a Vaughn block, Monroe ran the point on the fastbreak, dropping a dime to Freeman who finished and drew the contact from Hayward. The subsequent free throw made the score 70-53 with 4:02 to play, and the competitive portion of proceedings had concluded.

Marquette’s defense was unable to force misses from inside or outside. Georgetown jumped out to a 15-4 lead, scoring on its first seven possessions. Monroe scored six of those points and assisted on two more, establishing the theme of the evening.

“I thought he turned over his right shoulder every single time tonight,” said Williams of Monroe’s post tendency. “He used his left hand every single time tonight. We didn’t play to the scouting report, and we looked really, really bad. And he looked really, really good.”

“They have not had height all year,” said Georgetown head coach John Thompson III of the active but outsized Eagles. “They’ve done a very good job of not letting people expose that or take advantage of that. … We were able to do that today — there’s no doubt about that — and I think we just got on a roll.”

Georgetown made its first six shots and, for the game, hit 6-of-12 3-pointers and 24-of-44 2-pointers for an effective field-goal percentage of 58 percent.

Georgetown is the best shooting team in the Big East by at 56.2 percent eFG in Big East games, and MU’s primary defensive weakness is in field-goal defense where it finished 11th. To keep GU from flying high on offense, Marquette needed to use its strength — forcing turnovers — to exploit Georgetown’s willingness to give it away.

The Golden Eagles forced just nine turnovers, not nearly enough, especially when they made just six 3-pointers. Marquette forced 13 turnovers and made 12 3-pointers in its 60-58 win over Georgetown in Milwaukee on Jan. 6, but it couldn’t duplicate that formula. The 23-point defeat was Marquette’s first double-digit defeat of the season.

“We were as bad as we’ve been all year long defensively,” said Williams, whose team allowed 1.25 points per possession, its greatest total in the Big East game all season. “We’re proud of what we’ve accomplished up until this point — it’s way more than most people anticipated — but having said that, [I’m] disappointed in our execution tonight.”

Georgetown will appear in its record 13th Big East Tournament final on Saturday night. They entered the semis as the only remaining team to have won a Big East Tournament. The Hoyas hold the record with seven titles.

For Georgetown, the appearance in the final is their third in four years but the first for the sophomore Monroe, who came to D.C. with great expectations but saw his team fall flat in his freshman season. A 7-11 conference record, a Tuesday exit at the Big East Tournament and no appearance in the NCAAs were stunning disappointments.

This season has been better, but the Hoyas still finished tied for seventh in the league at 10-8, a large drop-off from the back-to-back regular-season titles the Hoyas captured in the two seasons before Monroe’s arrival. In three days in New York, Monroe has done his best to erase any lingering disappointment from his first season-plus, and he’s now set his team up for a shot at another conference tournament title and a very high seed in the NCAA Tournament.

“A good friend of mine after [Thursday]’s game said there’s nothing better than Friday night in New York City, other than Saturday night in New York City,” said Thompson. “So, we’re going to show up in New York City on Saturday night.”

The Hoyas’ opponent Saturday night will be either West Virginia or Notre Dame. Either way, the Hoyas will have a chance to complete a revenge tournament of sorts. The Hoyas have defeated USF, Syracuse and Marquette in their first three games here. Those teams handed GU four of its eight conference defeats. Georgetown also lost to the Mountaineers and Irish this season.

When asked if the chance to defeat teams that had defeated them was motivation for the Hoyas, Monroe, Wright and Freeman all responded in the affirmative.

Monroe added, “For the record, yes.”

It’s appropriate to give the game’s defining player the last word on this one.

It’s really the perfect setup for ultimate exposure. When the Big East Tournament starts on Tuesday, the only real competition for media attention is the Horizon, Sun Belt and Summit finals (unless you fancy some Atlantic 10 pre-quarters). By Friday and Saturday, when the other big leagues are giving fans their first tastes of quality games, the Big East trumps them with matchups of top teams in its semis and final. The Big East finally relents on Sunday for a few hours, but then comes the selection show, in which Big East teams are likely to make up at least an eighth of the field. The conference may not end up owning the NCAA Tournament, but it has property rights to most of this seven-day period of college hoops gluttony.

With an unrivaled media footprint — especially now that either ESPN2 or ESPNU is carrying the games on Second Division Day (Tuesday) — what can college hoops fans expect from the Garden this week?

Tournament Overview

The first thing that pops out when looking at the Big East Tournament bracket is how strong the top half is. I’d argue that Syracuse, Villanova, Marquette and Georgetown are four of the six best teams in the conference, but they will meet each other in the quarterfinals if the seeds hold. Also, St. John’s is playing in its home arena and is a strong No. 13 seed, and Connecticut — while in a tailspin — still outscored its opponents in conference play and enters the Big East Tournament ninth in the league in efficiency margin. The potential Marquette-Villanova quarterfinal, which would be a rematch of last year’s thriller, has my mouth watering.

The strength of the top half of the bracket means that West Virginia should be heavy favorites to get through the bottom half. The Mountaineers’ defense has been sharp since it couldn’t keep from fouling in the loss to Connecticut on Feb. 22, and the offense has been consistently strong until a weak effort at Villanova on Saturday. The trick is that West Virginia has been bracketed with teams that have given it trouble this season. The quarterfinal matchup will probably be with a Louisville team that had WVU dead to rights in Morgantown before a late Cards collapse mixed with questionable officiating combined to create a West Virginia win. Bob Huggins’ team has lost to its two most likely semifinal opponents — Pittsburgh and Notre Dame. The No. 10 seed, Seton Hall, is the other possible semifinal opponent, and the Pirates took West Virginia to overtime before losing.

Dangerous Sleepers

Connecticut: Jim Calhoun benched seniors Stanley Robinson, Gavin Edwards and Jerome Dyson for nearly all of the second half of UConn’s loss to South Florida on Saturday, and he insists that the five who finished the USF game will be the five starters in Tuesday’s second game against St. John’s. With the uncertainty about what that lineup might bring for an entire game, it’s hard to call Connecticut all that dangerous. At the same time, how often does a team outscore its opponents and yet grab the No. 12 seed in its conference tournament? Connecticut enters the tournament in need of three wins to make the NCAAs. That’s probably a stretch, but it’s not hard to envision UConn defeating St. John’s, knocking off a Marquette team it lost to on a buzzer-beater earlier this season and testing a Villanova team it defeated on the road just a few weeks ago. UConn’s lack of depth makes winning on back-to-back days or three straight days a more difficult task.

Seton Hall: This tournament does not set up well for a team playing the first day making it very far, and indeed all four Day 1 winners lost on Day 2 last season. But, if there is a team playing Tuesday that has a real shot to get all the way to the semis, it’s probably Seton Hall. To get to Friday, Bobby Gonzalez’s squad would have to defeat three teams it’s already beaten. First up is a Providence team that the Pirates handled in Rhode Island on Saturday. Then comes Notre Dame, which Seton Hall defeated by three in the game where Luke Harangody was injured. Should SHU defeat Notre Dame, it would have to feel comfortable that its NCAA Tournament ticket was punched. It could play free and loose against No. 2 Pittsburgh. Seton Hall defeated Pittsburgh by three in January despite getting next to nothing from Jeremy Hazell.

Georgetown: The last sleeper is a team that gets Tuesday off, but Georgetown has a team of a quality seldom found at a No. 8 seed. And, yes, the Hoyas lost at home to likely Wednesday opponent USF and lost twice to quarterfinal opponent Syracuse, but the Hoyas are good enough to win both games even if the matchups don’t necessarily favor them. With Austin Freeman’s condition diagnosed and addressed, the Hoyas played a dominant second half against Cincinnati on Saturday. This is also a team that won at Pitt and defeated Villanova and Duke. If Georgetown were the No. 7 seed, I’d like it to get to the semis, but Notre Dame’s overtime win at Marquette puts GU in the brutal top half. With potential matchups against Pittsburgh and West Virginia — two teams they’ve already beaten — perhaps the Irish are the better sleeper bet after all.

Vulnerable High Seeds

I won’t dwell on this, because I made oblique reference to it in the section above. As well as Pittsburgh has played this season, the Panthers are not the second-best team in this tournament. I guess that’s me daring them to prove me wrong, and with wins over Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova and Marquette, I suppose Pitt already has done so. At the same time, Pittsburgh has shown vulnerability on both ends of the floor, and I’d expect those to be exposed at some points this week and perhaps early. Notre Dame is equal parts sleeper and vulnerable. With a likely Wednesday matchup against Seton Hall, the Irish can’t relish the idea of chasing around Hazell and Jordan Theodore while Herb Pope wreaks havoc inside. The Irish may be the team seeded 5-8 with both the best chance of advancing to the semis and losing in its first game.

Time for Some Bubbly

Here’s what the Big East’s bubble teams need to do to get in:

Marquette: The Golden Eagles are almost certainly in the field with their 11-7 conference record, but a home loss to Notre Dame on Saturday combined with a loss to St. John’s or UConn on Wednesday would make my heart pitter-patter at 6 p.m. on Sunday if I were an MU fan. Barring an injury to Lazar Hayward or Jimmy Butler and a loss on Wednesday, Marquette should be safe, but it would be best to win on Wednesday just for anxiety’s sake.

Notre Dame: The Irish are right with Marquette in my at-large model, but UND is generally a seed or two behind Marquette in the Bracket Matrix. That leads me to believe that Notre Dame is in want of a win on Wednesday. The Irish may not need to win, but they would be putting their fate in the hands of the committee if they lose to Seton Hall or Providence on Wednesday.

Seton Hall: I have the Pirates among the last four out in my latest projection. This means that Seton Hall will surely have to defeat Providence and Notre Dame to have a chance at dancing. I would suggest that those two wins would be enough. I’m quite certain the Pirates would make my final field should they win their first two games, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t be snubbed by the committee.

South Florida: The Bulls beat Seton Hall head-to-head — at home in overtime — and have one extra top-25 win, so it’s reasonable for some people to put USF ahead of the Pirates. Seton Hall, though, played a tougher conference schedule (fifth toughest compared to USF’s 15th toughest in the RPI) and the Pirates don’t have a single loss to a team outside the top 100. Either way, the Bulls are unlikely to be compared directly to SHU if they win twice in the Big East Tournament. That would require a win over a Georgetown team that USF defeated on Feb. 3. Duplicating that feat should punch Stan Heath’s team’s ticket.

Connecticut: Must win three. Simple as that. Anything less won’t be enough. Ken Pomeroy has UConn at 1-in-10 to do just that, and 10 percent is about right for the Huskies’ NCAA Tournament odds.

Cincinnati: Pray for rain? I suppose if the Bearcats reach the Big East Tournament final, they will be strongly considered and might get in. Let’s stick to reality, though.

Day 1 Previews

No. 16 DePaul vs. No. 9 USF; noon ET, ESPN2: These teams played last Tuesday as well, with USF winning an unimpressive 63-59 final. Demons fans may not have noticed — and judging by the attendance, you haven’t — but DePaul has actually played a lot of close games down the stretch, climbing past Rutgers and out of the cellar in efficiency margin (thank Pittsburgh for its 29-point blowout win over RU on Saturday). Nine of its last 10 losses are by single digits, including to Louisville and Syracuse. USF ranks just 13th in efficiency margin, making this a more even game than the seeds might imply. Still, USF needs to win to have a shot at the NCAA Tournament, and I don’t expect a similar performance by the Bulls that we saw by Cincinnati in a similar spot last season.

No. 13 St. John’s vs. No. 12 Connecticut; 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Red Storm played Georgetown in a comparable situation in last year’s Big East Tournament. The Hoyas came in as disappointments but with perhaps faint hopes of achieving an NCAA Tournament bid with a long run in the Garden. St. John’s was generally overlooked, but the Red Storm played well and defeated the Hoyas. A reproduction of that event would not surprise me. With two good defenses and poor offenses, this figures to be the lowest-scoring game of the tournament if it plays to form. UConn won by 16 in Hartford on Jan. 20.

No. 15 Providence vs. No. 10 Seton Hall; 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU: The Friars followed up its near-miss at Pittsburgh with a clunker in their home finale against these same Pirates. For once, the defense wasn’t the primary problem — not to imply that PC’s defense was good on Saturday. Worse was the offense, which shot just 42.3 percent eFG and committed turnovers on one quarter of its possessions. The latter has rarely been a problem this season. If the Friars can clean up the turnovers and get Greedy Peterson more involved — the double-double machine had just six points and four rebounds before fouling out — PC could pull off a crushing upset. The bad matchup for PC — and this isn’t new — is on defense, where Seton Hall doesn’t turn the ball over. Forcing turnovers is the primary way that PC gets stops, and without that out, the Friars’ only option is to pray for missed shots. Teams don’t generally miss layups.

No. 14 Rutgers vs. No. 11 Cincinnati; 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU: If St. John’s or Providence were in Rutgers’ spot, I’d really like the bigger seed, but Rutgers is just really bad. I guess it’s a testament to Fred Hill’s coaching that RU won five league games despite being outscored by 16 points per 100 possessions, but it’s also a sign that the Scarlet Knights are some combination of inconsistent and pretty awful. The 15th-ranked offense and defense in the Big East plays a Cincinnati team that again enters MSG with a lost look about it. The Bearcats had tough defeats to Marquette, West Virginia and Villanova before leading at the half at Georgetown. The second half was an embarrassment, though, with UC being outscored 45-21. UC could have used a more consistent senior season from Deonta Vaughn.

Forecast of Trepidation

West Virginia and Syracuse are the best teams in the Big East and the most likely to make the final. In the last two years, we’ve seen the top seed play a mid-seed in the final, but this feels more like a chalk year. Syracuse has the tougher route to the final, which means the Orange will likely enter the final a bit more weary, but the 2-3 zone is an equalizer for SU’s fatigue. I say West Virginia settles for too many 3-pointers, and Syracuse takes home the title by 6-8 points.

Coverage This Week

I’ll be at all five night sessions of the Big East Tournament, doing my best to provide incisive analysis for my favorite conference tournament. Check back here for nightly pieces leading up to Selection Sunday and the final Bracket Junkie.

Printable Version of Bracket »

Note: Teams deemed at least 98-percent likely to make the NCAA Tournament are in bold. Three new at-large teams earned their bold tags over the weekend — Louisville, Oklahoma State and Wake Forest. Notre Dame and Virginia Tech just missed.

Moving In as At-large: Arizona State, Mississippi, San Diego State, Washington

Moving Out as At-large: Georgia Tech, Illinois, Rhode Island, UAB

Moving In as Automatic: Vermont (America East), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)

Moving Out as Automatic: Stony Brook (America East), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Coastal Carolina (Big South)

On the Bubble: There was a lot of shuffling around the bubble this weekend with several teams suffering near-devastating losses. Georgia Tech and Illinois both had blowout losses at home. The loss for the Yellow Jackets is their third in five and fifth in seven, and more importantly, it puts them at 7-9 in conference. To me, Illinois only looked like an NCAA Tournament team for about a week all season — when it beat Wisconsin and Michigan State. We’ll see if that 10-8 conference record is enough to override losing five of six and dropping games to Georgia, Bradley and Utah out of conference. Rhode Island lost its fifth of seven against 18-loss UMass in Amherst on Saturday. That will be hard to overcome. Finally, UAB needed to win one of its two tough games this week, but the Blazers lost both by a total of seven points, including a 52-50 win at C-USA champ UTEP on Saturday.

There is a distinctly western flavor to the teams moving into the field. The Pac-10 may turn out to be the greatest beneficiary of the inability of most bubble teams to win down the stretch. Arizona State finished 12-6 in conference after a win over UCLA, and Washington had a strong second half to put Oregon State away in Corvallis. SDSU finished 11-5 in the Mountain West after having no trouble at all with lowly Air Force in Colorado Springs. Mississippi stormed back in the second half to knock off Arkansas in Fayetteville. It’s a 20 minutes that may prove decisive to the Rebels’ season.

Atlantic 10: The closing weeks of the season couldn’t have been any worse for the Atlantic 10, which once appeared likely to get five bids. In their last seven games of the season, Charlotte, Dayton and Rhode Island combined to win just five times — that’s 5-16. One of those wins was in a game between Charlotte and Rhode Island, and another was a home win over winless Fordham for Rhody. None of the five wins was against any of the league’s top three. Saint Louis has passed Charlotte and Dayton on my at-large model, but URI may be the only salvageable team. With a run to the finals of the A-10 Tournament, the Rams could dance.

Temple, Xavier and Richmond continue to play for seeding, all winning over the weekend. The A-10 Tournament champ, assuming it’s one of those three and that justice is served, should be rewarded with a No. 4 seed.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Temple (No. 4)
Xavier (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7)
Rhode Island (seventh-to-last out)

ACC: Wake Forest and Virginia Tech got the wins they needed this weekend. The Demon Deacons were victorious at home against Clemson, and the Hokies went to Atlanta and stunned Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are now in serious trouble with that ugly 7-9 conference record. In Georgia Tech’s defense, it did play the second-toughest conference schedule, getting Duke twice and Maryland on the road. The Jackets have four top-50 wins to their credit but none since January. GaTech plays North Carolina in a 7-10 game on Thursday, which is a must-win. The question is whether Paul Hewitt’s team will need a victory over Maryland in the quarterfinals. I suspect a respectable showing should be enough.

Duke and Maryland closed out their seasons with victories over lesser opposition to tie for the ACC regular-season title. The Blue Devils remain a No. 1 seed, West Virginia being the No. 2 with the only legitimate case for a No. 1 right now. Maryland could move all the way up to a No. 2 or 3 with an ACC Tournament title. A trip to the final should ensure a top-four seed.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 5)
Florida State (No. 8)
Clemson (No. 8)
Wake Forest (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for conference balancing)
Virginia Tech (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Georgia Tech (second-to-last out)

Big 12: Kansas State’s home loss to Iowa State on Saturday should all but eliminate the Wildcats from consideration for a No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, Baylor continues to have trouble finding the respect it deserves. The Bears have identical conference and overall records as K-State, and Baylor’s conference record was achieved against a slightly tougher schedule. Both teams have four wins against top-25 teams, and Baylor has an extra top-100 win. Their RPIs are a spot apart, and yet K-State is a 2 or 3 but Baylor is a 5 or 6? That can’t be right, and I don’t think it is. I suspect the committee agrees with me.

Oklahoma State clinched its berth with a blowout win over last-place Nebraska. Texas was dismantled by said Baylor team in Waco and drops to a No. 7 seed with a 9-7 conference mark.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Baylor (No. 3)
Kansas State (No. 3)
Texas A&M (No. 5)
Texas (No. 7)
Oklahoma State (No. 7)
Missouri (No. 8)

Big East: Syracuse’s loss to Louisville clinched the Cardinals’ bid without hurting Syracuse severely. The Orange is still locked into a No. 1 seed and has a shot at the top overall spot should it win the Big East Tournament and Kansas not win the Big 12. West Virginia has emerged as the strongest No. 2 seed after its overtime win at Villanova. WVU could nab the last No. 1 from Duke should the Mountaineers advance further in their conference tournament. I still have Villanova as a solid No. 2, though I see some have dropped the Wildcats to a No. 3. With the main competition coming from Pittsburgh, New Mexico, Purdue and Ohio State — and three of those five teams getting No. 2’s — I suspect VU is in fine shape for now.

The biggest Big East news of the weekend came from Milwaukee where Notre Dame defeated Marquette. The Irish are on the edge of a berth and may make the field even with a pre-quarters loss to the winner of Seton Hall-Providence. That game could be a play-in game for Seton Hall, which defeated Providence on the road this weekend. It would be SHU’s second win over UND and might be the Big East’s best shot at a ninth bid. On the other hand, USF is also in the mix after defeating UConn on Saturday. Dominique Jones’ boys will play DePaul before getting a shot at Georgetown. A win over the Hoyas — which would be USF’s second this season — would make the Bulls hard to keep out.

As for Connecticut, some are saying that the Huskies need two wins in New York, but I’m not sure defeats of St. John’s and Marquette will be enough. I think three is the number, which means UConn would need to also down Villanova on Thursday.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 3)
Georgetown (No. 5)
Louisville (No. 8)
Marquette (No. 10, moved to No. 9 for conference balancing)
Notre Dame (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Seton Hall (fourth-to-last out)
South Florida (sixth-to-last out)

Big Ten: Illinois is out right now. With an RPI of 77, the Illini can play their way back to the bubble with a win over Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament on Friday. Sunday’s 15-point home loss was as bad as it gets and the second time in a row that the Illini were a no-show against one of the Big Ten’s top four at home.

Ohio State will be one of the interesting seeding decisions on Selection Sunday. The Buckeyes are now 13-2 in their last 15 games with wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois (twice) and Michigan State. Their only losses were at home to Purdue and at West Virginia. The question is how much the selection committee will discount the losses OSU suffered in Turner’s absence. The Buckeyes were 3-3 in those six games, but there’s no guarantee they would have won at Butler (eight-point loss) and at Wisconsin (22-point loss) even with Turner (the other loss was at Michigan by nine). This is something I’ll be mulling considerably over the next week. I don’t think the committee will give OSU a benefit of the doubt all the way to a No. 1 seed, but a No. 2 seed seems likely if OSU advances to the Big Ten final or wins it.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Ohio State (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 4)
Illinois (fifth-to-last out)

Mountain West: New Mexico is a No. 2 seed. Color me uncomfortable with that. I’m assuming a couple of major-conference teams will pass the Lobos this week, but what if they win the Mountain West Tournament? At that point, Steve Alford’s club would be 31-3 with a 5-0 record against the RPI top 25. Brigham Young could play its way to as high as a No. 3 seed by winning the MWC Tourney. I think a 4 or a 5 would fit nicely should BYU make it to at least the final, but there is stiff competition for those spots.

On the bubble, UNLV isn’t doing much, but not much is more than enough with teams falling around it. If the Rebels can win their quarterfinal game against Utah on Thursday then they should be in. The Aztecs have Colorado State in the quarters before a shot at New Mexico. Getting to the final should clinch a bid for SDSU, but even losing in the semis may be enough, though I doubt it.

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 2)
Brigham Young (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 11, eighth-to-last in)
San Diego State (No. 12, second-to-last in)

Pac-10: Oh, my! Dick Enberg will be in Los Angeles for the Pac-10 Tournament, and suddenly this year’s dead horse of major-conference basketball has a chance to showcase teams with legitimate NCAA Tournament hopes. Cal, Washington and Arizona State all got out of the final weekend unscathed, and they are all in the field for now. I maintain that Cal is in if it avoids a quarterfinal loss to either Oregon or Washington State. I’m growing more and more certain that should Washington or Arizona State reach the Pac-10 final, that team would also be in. Despite having the better conference record, ASU is probably less likely to make the NCAAs than Washington because the Sun Devils have just one top-50 win and three top-100 wins. The Huskies two top-25 wins and six top-100 wins.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Arizona State (No. 13, last in)

SEC: Kentucky surely locked up a No. 1 seed with its win over Florida on Sunday. Now the Wildcats have a chance at the top overall seed if they can win the SEC Tournament. Vanderbilt had a bad loss to South Carolina at home, and that loss moves the Commodores off the top four seed lines. Tennessee might have the most to gain from a deep SEC Tournament run. Even a No. 2 seed is not out of the question with the tournament title.

In most years, Florida — losers of three straight — would be in a very tough spot and in need of two SEC Tournament wins to clinch a bid. This year, though, the Gators should get in with a win over Auburn on Thursday. Mississippi will play the winner of Tennessee-LSU (in other words, Tennessee) in the quarters on Friday. A Rebels win would probably seal the deal. If they lose in the quarters, though, then I think they’re probably going to be on the outside looking in. After a no-show performance against Tennessee on Saturday night, Mississippi State probably needs to reach the SEC Tournament final to have a legitimate shot at a bid. To get there, MSU will likely have to beat Florida and Vanderbilt, which means the Bulldogs will have earned their bid.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Tennessee (No. 4)
Vanderbilt (No. 5)
Florida (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Mississippi (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
Mississippi State (ninth-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: Another year, another second-place Missouri Valley Conference team that will likely be left out of the field. The Shockers have 10 top-100 wins but just one against the top 50 (Northern Iowa at home). In recent seasons, similar profiles were not good enough for Creighton or Illinois State, so I’m guessing the same will be true of WSU, which rarely shows up on last-teams-out lists for most projectors. I’ve given the Shockers ample love on mine.

There are two big games for bubble teams tonight in the West Coast Conference and the CAA. Saint Mary’s plays Gonzaga, and William & Mary plays Old Dominion. Let’s compare Gonzaga and Old Dominion for a moment. Both have RPIs in the mid-30s. Both have one top-25 win. Gonzaga has two more top-50 wins but ODU equals the Bulldogs in top-100 wins with eight. Gonzaga has one extra bad loss. ODU went 15-3 in a stronger conference than the one in which Gonzaga achieved its 14-2. ODU does have three more losses but also a tougher strength of schedule. Both teams have 25 wins. I’m not implying that Old Dominion should be ahead of Gonzaga, but how can one team be a No. 5 or 6 seed and the other not get in if it loses its conference tournament final? Surely that’s not the case. Gonzaga is definitely over-respected in comparison to the other top mid-major teams because of the Zags’ reputation, but I suspect Old Dominion will get in regardless of what happens in Richmond on Monday night.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 7)
UTEP (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Utah State (No. 10)
Siena (No. 11)
Memphis (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 12, fifth-to-last in)
UAB (last out)
Wichita State (third-to-last out)
William & Mary (eighth-to-last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (10th-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Notes: Ohio State was moved from Milwaukee to Providence, and Pittsburgh was moved from Providence to Milwaukee so that Brigham Young could be placed in a pod where the Cougars would be able to avoid a Sunday game. This is the first time I’ve had to move pod assignments because of Brigham Young, and I hope it’s the last. Also, in the conference bid breakdowns, I am going to put teams I consider locks for the NCAA Tournament in bold. My definition of a lock is a team that could lose out and would still be at least 98-percent likely to get in. Right now, I have 31 teams as locks plus 22 other bids accounted for by conference champions. That leaves 12 spots still up for grabs, though Oklahoma State and Louisville are just about locked in.

Bracketing Challenges: Kansas slips just past Syracuse and into the top overall seed position after defeating Kansas State on Wednesday. This is very close, however, and the top overall seed will likely come down to who goes further in their conference tournaments. Kentucky could also be in the mix if it wins the SEC Tournament and neither Kansas nor Syracuse wins its conference tournament.

I don’t see how Duke is not still a No. 1 seed. The Blue Devils have three top-25 wins, same as Kentucky; and nine top-50 wins, four more than Kentucky. Of course, Duke has three more losses than the Wildcats, but is it possible that the difference in losses can be found in the difference between Kentucky’s 41st-ranked strength of schedule and Duke’s seventh-ranked one? Yet, Duke is on the No. 2 seed line for some people, and Kentucky is firmly ensconced as a No. 1. Interesting. The Blue Devils’ grip on a top seed is not firm, and a slip-up in the conference tournament could combine with a conference tournament championship for any of a half-dozen teams to knock Duke off the line, but right now, I don’t find a compelling argument against Duke.

As a whole, I really feel comfortable with the way I’ve seeded these teams. There are some tricky seedings on lines four through seven, but — with the exception of the teams I moved up or down for conference balancing, most of the seeds “feel” right. Many of you may disagree with that assessment, and feel free to voice your differences in the comments section or via e-mail. Nine days to go until Selection Sunday!

Moving In as At-large: Memphis, Rhode Island

Moving Out as At-large: Connecticut, Dayton

Moving In as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)

Moving Out as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

On the Bubble: Though I like the seeding for this projection, the bubble is an absolute mess. Any of the last five in could reasonably be left out. The problem is finding the teams to replace them. Illinois has lost four of five and still can’t manage to find its way out of the field. Rhode Island dropped four of five before it vaulted back in with a comfortable home win over Charlotte. Memphis enters the field for the first time after a road win over UAB, but the Blazers maintain their spot thanks to a strong non-conference performance and an 11-4 record in the Conference USA. Saint Mary’s hasn’t played since Saturday, and that was more than good enough to stay in the field.

On the wrong side of the bubble, a couple of Pac-10 teams are inching closer. Arizona State and Washington both have shots at bids if they reach the conference tournament final. Their potential semifinal matchup in the Pac-10 Tournament could prove vital. San Diego State had a routine home win and actually has a profile similar to UAB’s, but the Blazers got the nod thanks to a better overall record and two more wins against top-100 opponents. Then there’s Mississippi with its weak record — 8-7 — in the lesser half of the SEC, but the Rebels do have 20 wins against a pretty solid schedule. Connecticut, Mississippi State and Dayton each suffered damaging losses this week. For UConn and UD, the losses ensure conference records that will be eyesores to the committee. For MSU, the loss to a weak opponent — Auburn — is the Bulldogs’ fifth against teams outside of the RPI top-100. Set that against Rick Stansbury’s team’s one top-50 win. As you can see, determining the most deserving at-large teams was a lot like naming the most reasonable talking head on one of those awful afternoon ESPN shows.

Atlantic 10: Temple had a very fine win at Saint Louis this week. With that victory, the Owls are one step closer to a share of the A-10 title. Fran Dunphy’s club could peak at a No. 4 seed with a good run in Atlantic City for the A-10 Tournament. Xavier defeated Fordham and, like Temple, figures to slot somewhere on the 4-6 range. Richmond had a terrific comeback win over Dayton on Thursday, a victory that may have sealed the Flyers’ fate. The Spiders head to a sputtering Charlotte team to play for seeding.

URI got a win it needed against Charlotte, but it can’t allow itself to fall at UMass. A home loss to the Minutemen in their last regular-season game a year ago doomed the Rams’ at-large hopes. URI’s RPI is in the 20s now but is unlikely to stay there without a run to the A-10 final, though it needn’t get that far to secure a bid. Dayton is the tough-luck team in the nation this year. The Flyers could probably share that honor with Penn State, but the Nittany Lions aren’t in a fight for an NCAA bid. Brian Gregory’s team has lost seven straight games decided by five points or fewer — with a six-point overtime win against Duquesne thrown in. Dayton hosts Saint Louis on Saturday needing a win just to get to 9-7 in conference. That’s not a league record from the A-10 that will impress many committee members, though St. Joseph’s got in with a 9-7 record and a run to the A-10 final in 2008. That’s the task for the Flyers.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Temple (No. 5)
Xavier (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7, moved to No. 8 for conference balancing)
Rhode Island (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for conference balancing; fifth-to-last in)
Dayton (eighth-to-last out)

ACC: Home wins this week for Clemson and Florida State locked in a winning conference record for both teams. The losses for Georgia Tech and Wake Forest have dropped both teams into improbably precarious positions. Georgia Tech hosts Virginia Tech this weekend, and Wake Forest hosts Clemson. GaTech needs a win just to get to .500 in conference, and the Demon Deacons are desperate to stop a slide that has reached four straight. The good news is that the bubble is so weak that both teams still maintain a margin for error.

Virginia Tech halted a three-game losing streak with a home win over NC State on Wednesday, but the Hokies now travel to Georgia Tech where a loss would drop VT closer to the cutline. Still, a 9-7 record in the ACC — that’s where the Hokies would be with a loss in Atlanta — is probably stronger than what most of the teams near the bubble will be able to show to the committee, despite just two top-50 wins.

Maryland’s seed is starting to fall better in line with its play now that the Terps have defeated Duke. Maryland now has six top-50 wins.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 5)
Clemson (No. 7)
Florida State (No. 8)
Georgia Tech (No. 10)
Wake Forest (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)

Big 12: I nearly bolded Oklahoma State, but a Cowboys loss to Nebraska in Stillwater on Saturday followed by a first-round Big 12 Tournament loss next week could conceivably put OSU in jeopardy. A win over the Cornhuskers will remove all doubt.

I still see Baylor, Texas A&M and Texas as being underseeded in many projections. It doesn’t seem that many people understand just how strong the Big 12 is this year. Do a side-by-side comparison of Vanderbilt and Baylor’s qualifications and tell me how they can be 2-3 seed lines apart. Also, I think Texas is suffering from bad public relations. Because the Longhorns aren’t No. 1-seed good, they’re being dropped down further than they should. This is still a 23-7 team with five wins against top-50 teams and nine against top-100 teams without a single loss to a team outside the top 100.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Baylor (No. 4)
Texas A&M (No. 4)
Texas (No. 5)
Missouri (No. 7)
Oklahoma State (No. 8, moved to No. 7 for conference balancing)

Big East: The winner of Saturday’s West Virginia-Villanova matchup has the inside track at unseating Duke for the last No. 1 seed. A WVU loss would give Villanova a sweep, making it more difficult for the committee to slot the Mountaineers over the Wildcats even if WVU outperforms Villanova at the Big East Tournament. Pittsburgh stays firmly on the No. 3 seed line thanks to Ashton Gibbs’ 30-foot game-winner against Providence. A Pittsburgh win over Rutgers combined with a WVU win at Nova would create a three-way tie for second place in the Big East, and the Panthers would win the tiebreaker. Should that happen, Pitt would be a No. 2 seed in the Big East Tournament for the second straight year, despite all the personnel losses from last season.

Georgetown has now lost two straight as well as one of its top players in Austin Freeman. The assumption is that Freeman will be back for the Big East Tournament, if not sooner, but that’s not a guarantee for the junior recently diagnosed with diabetes. Marquette continues to rise, this time after a dominant victory over Louisville. I’m going to leave the Cardinals off the list of locks. They are just a spot ahead of Wake Forest in my at-large model and have just three top-50 wins.

Notre Dame might clinch a bid with a win at Marquette on Saturday, though the Golden Eagles have lost just once since Jan. 23. Short of a road victory, Notre Dame will need a win and probably two at Madison Square Garden to boost an RPI that currently sits at 63. UConn has to win at USF and then likely add two more at MSG to secure a bid. The best the Huskies can do is 8-10 in conference, and that will be hard for the committee to ignore, regardless of how difficult their schedule has been. USF and Seton Hall continued to stay within reach of the field thanks to road victories over the two worst teams in the Big East. Both teams need to win until Thursday’s Big East quarterfinals, and then we’ll see where each stands if that happens.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 3)
Georgetown (No. 5)
Marquette (No. 8)
Louisville (No. 9)
Notre Dame (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for conference balancing; seventh-to-last in)
Connecticut (fifth-to-last out)
Seton Hall (seventh-to-last out)
South Florida (10th-to-last out)

Big Ten: Purdue, Ohio State and Michigan State appear likely to finish 14-4 in conference with Wisconsin a step behind. All four teams have played portions of the season without their best players. Of course, Purdue is the only team that will continue to play that way. These four teams may look similar, but let’s keep in mind how many top-50 wins each has: Purdue, 6; Ohio State, 5; Wisconsin, 6; Michigan State, 3. Also, MSU lost Kalin Lucas for just one full game. On the other hand, Evan Turner missed six, and Jon Leuer missed nine. Just some things to think about.

At the bubble, Illinois continues to hang around, but I’m not sure the Illini can survive a home loss to Wisconsin. The Illini’s RPI will be in the 70s with a loss, and I doubt their quality wins can overcome an 18-13 record (plus a loss in the Big Ten Tournament) with that RPI. Minnesota, meanwhile, is done. Twenty-eight point losses to teams going nowhere tend to do that to a team. I suppose that the Gophers could be in the mix with a run to the Big Ten final, but let me know when that happens.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Ohio State (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 5)
Illinois (No. 13, last in)

Mountain West: The Lobos continued to do what they do — win by less than one would expect but win nonetheless. This time, it was a seven-point home win against seventh-place TCU, New Mexico’s 14th straight win. Steve Alford’s team may not be that good, but it sure does win a lot, and I figure that will be rewarded. I’m less comfortable with Brigham Young as a No. 6, as I could see the Cougars higher. BYU, though, is just 4-4 vs. the top 50 without a top-25 win.

UNLV is one of the primary beneficiaries of the weak bubble. Last season, the three straight February losses might have doomed the Rebels, but they still look fairly comfortable this season. Lon Kruger’s bunch will close the season with Wyoming at home before hosting the Mountain West Tournament. Two more wins should be enough. San Diego State is basically UNLV with two fewer quality wins, and that makes all the difference. SDSU needs to close out the season with a win at Air Force and probably reach the MWC final to get in. Although, that appeared to be the formula last March as well, and it didn’t work out (unjustly, I’d maintain).

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Brigham Young (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 11, eighth-to-last in)
San Diego State (second-to-last out)

Pac-10: I won’t put Cal as a lock yet, but I’m definitely more bullish on the Bears than most. Assuming Cal finishes out the regular season with a win at Stanford and avoids an upset in the Pac-10 quarterfinals, I think the Bears will be in. Washington and Arizona State have been helped by the bubble slippage. ASU has now won seven of nine with its only losses being at Washington and at Cal. Washington has won three straight after the disappointing home defeat to USC. The Huskies’ two wins over RPI top-25 teams — Texas A&M and Cal at home — give them the edge over ASU despite the Sun Devils’ superior conference record. The committee has been generous with Pac-10 bubble teams in the past, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it gives the nod to one of these two next Sunday.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (last out)
Arizona State (third-to-last out)

SEC: Vanderbilt just edged out Baylor for the last No. 3 seed primarily due to that strong, 12-3 conference record, though I’m not convinced that Baylor’s 10-5 in the Big 12 South is substantively worse. Tennessee got the nod on the No. 4 line, though I could see any number of teams ahead of the Vols here, particularly Maryland, Temple or Michigan State. Either way, both teams are in and — along with UK — will see to it that the SEC’s stay in the NCAA Tournament is longer this year than last.

Florida, like Wake Forest, has failed to move closer to the bubble despite recent losses. The Gators now head to Kentucky. If they don’t win there, they can ill afford to lose their first-round SEC Tournament game, which will likely come against a tricky Auburn or Alabama club. Mississippi and Mississippi State are hanging around, the latter despite a damaging road loss to Auburn on Wednesday. MSU must beat Tennessee at home this weekend to have a shot. As for the Rebels, they do have that neutral-court win over Kansas State in November, but then there’s the 8-7 conference record and the sweep at the hands of Mississippi State. Andy Kennedy’s team visits Arkansas this weekend. A win there will be the first of several steps toward an at-large.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 3)
Tennessee (No. 4)
Florida (No. 11, ninth-to-last in)
Mississippi (fourth-to-last out)
Mississippi State (sixth-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: With the bubble so weak as it stands, I’m convinced that teams like Northern Iowa, Utah State, UTEP and Old Dominion have terrific shots at at-large bids if they lose in their conference tournaments. There aren’t as many major-conference teams with qualifications to steal bids from teams that dominated mid-major leagues like these teams did all season.

The worrisome thing about the bubble for mid-major teams right now is that so many of them are just barely on the positive side of it. UAB, Memphis, Saint Mary’s and Rhode Island are all among the last five in. We’ve seen in recent seasons, with the omissions of Illinois State, Creighton, San Diego State and Saint Mary’s, among others, that the committee can be unforgiving with the little guy.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 7)
Northern Iowa (No. 8)
Utah State (No. 9)
UTEP (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 10)
Siena (No. 10)
Memphis (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
UAB (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Wichita State (ninth-to-last out)

After crunching some numbers to determine which players have had the biggest impact on their teams, I narrowed down my list to eight players whom I think deserve serious consideration. Here are some of the interesting players I eliminated when paring the list to eight: Jamine Peterson (Providence), Samardo Samuels (Louisville), Jimmy Butler (Marquette), Corey Fisher (Villanova), Tim Abromaitis (Notre Dame), Jerome Dyson (Connecticut), D.J. Kennedy (St. John’s), Brad Wanamaker (Pittsburgh), and there were others.

I used full-season data for my evaluations, although I would like to put together some conference-only data once the season is over. Here are my eight finalists in tabular form:

Let me do a little explaining. You can find most of this data on Ken Pomeroy’s site, but I did a couple of calculations that you won’t find there. The two new columns are my attempt to aggregate offensive production. Pts/100 is simply Min% x ORtg x Poss. This is basically the number of points each player is responsible per 100 team possessions, so it evaluates time spent on the floor, importance to the team’s offense and overall effectiveness. PAR is the column I used to evaluate the players offensively. PAR stand for Point Above Replacement. In other words, how many points per 100 team possessions would a team lose if that player’s minutes were replaced with a replacement-level player, which I established as having a 0.75 ORtg and 0.10 Poss%. That’s basically a player who is hardly involved at all in a team’s offense and is well below average when he does have the ball.

Despite Luke Harangody’s absence due to injury, he has been such a huge part of Notre Dame’s offense (.318 Poss%) and so effective (1.130 ORtg) that he still heads the pack. Scottie Reynolds, Dominique Jones and Jeremy Hazell all group closely together 3-5 with Lazar Hayward and Da’Sean Butler a bit behind them. Greg Monroe and Wesley Johnson bringing up the rear. Monroe is down there mainly because his ORtg (1.034) is mediocre for players on this list due to mediocre offensive rebounding numbers for a player his size and a few turnovers. Johnson is last mainly because he’s not nearly as important to his team’s offense as the other players. The Orange spread the wealth on offense better than any other team in the Big East.

Next to all those offensive columns are three defensive columns for the three primary areas we can track for individual defense: defensive rebounding, blocks and steals. I aggregated those statistical areas to try to come up with a defensive rating for the eight players. Not surprisingly, Monroe and Johnson came out on top but not that far ahead of Hayward. Jones, with his diverse defensive skill set, and Harangody with his terrific rebounding were next. Finally, Butler, Reynolds and Hazell, whose defensive impact is minimal — at least statistically — are at the bottom.

Combining those objective pieces of data with team success and maybe a few intangibles, here is my countdown of Big East Player of the Year.

8. Da’Sean Butler, West Virginia: After a hot start to conference play, Butler has cooled off with sub-par shooting performances in four of his last five games, three of those Mountaineers losses. Butler is 5-for-28 on 3-pointers during that stretch and was held to single-digits in scoring in Monday’s loss to Connecticut, the only time that has happened in conference play. Butler is still up at 36 percent on 3-point shooting for the season, and he is often the Mountaineer forced to take the difficult shot in the big spot. Beyond his shooting, Butler has improved as a distributor this season, taking advantage of the opposition’s focus on him. His assist rate is far better than anything he’d done previously, and his 1.91 assist-to-turnover ratio is a career best as a result. Butler’s defensive impact is unclear. West Virginia has one of the best defenses in the Big East, but Butler is simply a helper to the team’s elite defender, Devin Ebanks.

7. Jeremy Hazell, Seton Hall: He’s a gunner, and no one can deny that, but as far as gunners go, none in the nation is more effective than Hazell, who carries a 1.186 ORtg despite being responsible for 26.9 percent of his team’s possessions while on the floor. Only three other major-conference players — Washington’s Quincy Pondexter, Oklahoma State’s James Anderson and Reynolds — are as efficient while carrying such a heavy load (I should mention Jimmer Fredette of BYU on that list as well, though he is not playing in a major conference). While acknowledging that Hazell has attempted 9.5 3-pointers per game this season, he also sports a 52-percent conversion rate on more than seven 2-point attempts per game. Moreover, Hazell has become a better passer this year, nearly doubling his assist rate while seeing his turnover rate cut by a third. He’s an all-around offensive force. The problem is that 1) his team is just pretty good rather than great, and 2) he doesn’t make much of an impact on defense. Hazell will pick up steals but won’t block any shots and doesn’t rebound well for a 6-foot-5 player.

6. Wesley Johnson, Syracuse: It’s rare when the likely best team in a conference doesn’t have one of the top five choices for player of the year, and for that reason, expect Johnson to be near the top of actual voting. Johnson is a terrific and versatile player, able to change the game at either end of the floor. He is the only player on this list to rank in the nation’s top 500 in defensive rebounding, steal and block rates, and he should win the honor given to the Big East’s top defender. My main problem with Johnson’s candidacy is that he’s just not that important to Syracuse’s offense. Of all the players on this list, his team’s offense would suffer the least if he didn’t play, just because Syracuse is so balanced. In fact, Syracuse has won several games, especially in the second half of the conference season, in which Johnson has been either ineffective on offense or simply anonymous. NBA scouts will not be using this list to determine where to select him, as Johnson figures to be the first Big East player taken in June.

5. Luke Harangody, Notre Dame: This ranking is a bit harsh for a player who has been every bit as good as expected on offense and is a very strong defensive rebounder as well. The problem is that Harangody has now missed three full games and part of another, all in Big East play, with a knee injury. A Big East Player of the Year needs to play in almost every game, and that’s just tough luck for Luke and the Irish. Harangody has been just as good this season, maybe even a bit more efficient than last year. He’s shot the ball better all-around, adding a 36-percent 3-point shot to his arsenal. Harangody has not been quite as good on either offensive glass or as good a shot-blocker, but he will go down as one of the great offensive forces in the Big East’s history.

4. Greg Monroe, Georgetown: Because he doesn’t put up gaudy points (15.7 ppg) and rebounding numbers (9.6 ppg), many still underrate Monroe, but his impact is huge. He’s an exceptional passer, which is a great fit in John Thompson III’s offensive system. He’s had at least five assists in seven Big East games thus far. Monroe has not been quite as efficient as a shooter as his share of the load has increased. He’s seen his field-goal and free-throw percentages drop as a sophomore. Nonetheless, Monroe is a top offensive center, and he is also an impact player on defense. Monroe is the best defensive rebounder in the Big East and a terrific shot-blocker with a block rate almost identical to the more lauded Johnson. To top that off, Monroe is second on his team in steals. If he could have bumped his shooting percentages up and cut his turnovers a bit, he’d be in line to win this thing.

3. Dominique Jones, South Florida: If USF could have continued streaking through the conference, this award would have been Jones’. Only Harangody and Dyson are as involved in their teams’ offense among Big East players, but neither stays on the floor as long as Jones. Wednesday’s blowout loss at Villanova was the first time Jones sat for more than three minutes in a game since a Jan. 16 win over Rutgers. Jones is just about impossible to keep out of the paint with his ability to finish inside (52 percent on twos) and get to the line (74.9 percent on eight attempts per game). He also hits on 35 percent on his 3-pointers to keep opponents honest. Jones had the individual performance of the season with 46 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists and three steals in USF’s heart-stopping comeback win against Providence on Jan. 23. The assists are an underrated part of Jones’ game and another reason why he is a complete player. To be truly complete, though, one needs to be good on defense, and Jones is. He is a terrific defensive rebounder for a guard, grabs nearly two steals per game and even has 16 blocks. If his team was better, he’d be No. 1 on this list.

2. Scottie Reynolds, Villanova: Offensively, it’s hard to complain about anything Reynolds has done this year. He’s a huge part of his team’s offense and is nonetheless the most efficient player among these eight. Most of that efficiency is thanks to his amazing shooting — 40.7 percent on 3-pointers, a mind-boggling 55.4 percent on 2-pointers and 82.2 percent on free-throws. His 63.6 true-shooting percentage is behind just Georgetown’s Austin Freeman, Notre Dame’s Tim Abromaitis and Connecticut’s Gavin Edwards among Big East players. Only Freeman even approaches the frequency with which Reynolds shoots. If there are any complaints to be had about Reynolds’ game, it’s that he is not a great defender, although he’s one of the few Wildcats who do not foul much. Also, he’s barely present on either backboard. That’s not his job, but some players can do something approaching Reynolds’ job on offense while still grabbing some rebounds. Note: a winning performance at Syracuse could change everything.

1. Lazar Hayward, Marquette: After a tough early-season loss to Florida State, I marveled at the heavy offensive load the Marquette senior was carrying. Not much has changed since then. Only four players in the nation take a greater portion of their team’s shots when on the floor than Hayward. Despite taking so many shots, Hayward has still managed to stay efficient thanks to a 34.3 3-point percentage and an 83.5 3-point percentage. Hayward also rarely turns it over. In fact, he’s a lot like Hazell — he takes and makes a lot of shots and limits turnovers. The difference, though, is that Hayward makes a huge impact on the glass and on defense. I count 16 major-conference players in the top 100 in defensive rebounding rate, but none is as short as the 6-foot-6 Hayward. Did I mention he leads all Big East players with 30 steals in conference games? You won’t find another player not named Evan Turner who can carry such a heavy burden on offense and make such a large impact on defense. It would be nice if Hayward shot the ball a bit better than 48.6 eFG, but no one’s perfect. More importantly, despite losing four of the top six players from last year’s team, Marquette, led by Hayward — and some help from Butler’s dramatic buzzer-beaters — is in position for a fifth straight NCAA Tournament bid.

West Virginia: The Mountaineers’ 98-95 overtime loss at Pittsburgh was the most excusable of the defeats suffered by the Big East’s top four on this holiday weekend, but it was also West Virginia’s second-straight loss. It may come as a surprise to some that it’s WVU’s defense and not its offense that has been mostly to blame in the team’s five defeats.

You can see that West Virginia is allowing 0.085 points per possession more than it is scoring in its five losses. The main culprit is field-goal defense. Despite the Mountaineers’ notable length, they are allowing opponents to make 40 percent of their 3-pointers and 57 percent of their 2-pointers in these defeats. For the season, West Virginia is ahead of only the comparatively tiny Marquette and Providence squads in 2-point defense among Big East teams.

Also notable is West Virginia’s proclivity for putting its opponents on the foul line. Some of that is fouling late in games to try to come back, but a lot of it is just being foul-prone. I’ve written before about the link between a team’s willingness to foul and its ability to force turnovers, but WVU is not getting a consistent turnover payoff from its many fouls. An inability to force turnovers combined with putting opponents on the line and allowing a high percentage of makes from the field means that West Virginia is getting far too few stops for a team with eyes on a run to the Final Four.

Syracuse: I wonder how we’ll look back on the Orange’s 66-60 loss to Louisville come in the end of the season. There’s a decent chance that the most important effect of it was to get Louisville into the NCAA Tournament. The Orange still looks a likely No. 1 seed and remains favored to win the Big East regular-season title.

What have we really learned about Syracuse in the last two games — including the narrow and controversial victory over Connecticut — that was underexposed previously? John Gasaway shows that in the highly-offensive Big East, Syracuse actually has been quite mediocre on offense, at least in conference games:

That’s right — Syracuse has been about as good on offense as Providence and Pittsburgh in conference play, and, if you use the RPI, Syracuse has played an easier conference schedule than both teams. To score 1.08 points per possession might be quite an achievement in a conference where scoring wasn’t so prevalent — like the ACC or Big Ten — but the Big East average is 1.06 in conference games. The Orange is not the offensive juggernaut you may have been led to believe.

The primary problem is turnovers. Andy Rautins, Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine all have unacceptable turnover rates, and not even the forwards can keep their rates below 18 percent. Among major-conference teams, only Georgia, North Carolina and Rutgers have allowed a possession to be stolen from them as often as Syracuse has. None of those teams will even be playing in the NCAA Tournament.

The loss to Louisville wasn’t caused by turnovers — though SU had 12 — or poor free-throw shooting from bigs Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku — they combined to take only two free throws; instead, Syracuse was bullied inside. Louisville hit 57.7 percent of its 2-pointers against the third-best 2-point defense in the Big East. The thing is, Louisville only attempted 26 2-pointers, as the Cards were much more willing to jack up 30 threes against Syracuse’s zone. The Cards only hit 30 percent, an ideal figure that should have led to a Syracuse victory, but the Orange could not close out possessions, which leads us to the potentially fatal flaw of the 2-3 zone: defensive rebounding.

Louisville had 38 missed shots open for rebounding and snagged 18 of them. Samardo Samuels and Jared Swopshire each had four offensive rebounds; Rakeem Buckles grabbed three more. It’s unlikely that a defense is going to be excellent at every aspect of defending, but it’s in games where the relative mediocrity of the offense is exposed that the Achilles’ heel of the defense becomes more problematic.

Georgetown: Rutgers’ offense is the third worst in the Big East in conference, scoring 0.97 points per possession. Georgetown’s defense is tied for the third best in conference, allowing 1.03 points per possession. Somehow Rutgers managed to score 1.14 points per possession to come up with the unlikely, 71-68 victory in Piscataway. Georgetown’s fatal flaw: turnover differential.

The Hoyas currently have the 12th-worst turnover differential of the 73 major-conference teams. Here’s a list of the major-conference teams that — like Georgetown — rank outside the national top 200 in both turnovers forced and turnovers committed: Iowa, Rutgers, Georgia, Southern Cal. That is not a list where one would expect a top seed to find itself.

Against Rutgers, Georgetown committed 14 turnovers and forced just eight. That difference – plus some big 3-pointers by RU — allowed the Scarlet Knights to make up for shooting a worse percentage and getting fewer rebounds than the Hoyas.

Turnover differential is not a new problem for Georgetown under John Thompson III. With the exception of the 2005-06 team, JT3’s offenses have always had turnover problems. A lot of that has to do with the number of passes in each offensive set. Teams that pass more — especially on the interior — and run longer offensive sets tend to turn the ball over more. On defense, last year’s team was the anomaly in that it actually forced turnovers. That team was led by the thieving of Jessie Sapp and Greg Monroe, but Sapp is now gone and Monroe isn’t picking up steals as frequently this season.

This turnover disparity forces Georgetown to be extra efficient everywhere else, especially since Georgetown is not a dominant or even a proficient rebounding team. The combination of mediocre rebounding and a poor turnover differential means that GU’s opponents are getting more shots than the Hoyas are.

Rutgers attempted six more free throws and one more field goal than Georgetown. For the season, opponents have attempted 96 more field goals than Georgetown. Despite attempting 96 more, opponents have 87 fewer makes, since the Hoyas are that good at making shots and forcing opponents to miss. What this creates, though, is a narrow margin for error, one that could be devastating against a quality opponent in the NCAA Tournament.

Villanova: Like Syracuse in its narrow victory over Connecticut on Wednesday, there were worrying signs for Villanova on Saturday in a win over Providence. The Friars, undermanned and underexperienced, hung with Villanova for 32 minutes, trailing by just four before a controversial personal foul/technical foul combination elimintated Friars’ fifth-year senior guard Sharaud Curry, who had 19 points on the day. Despite poor shooting from Providence, the Friars were able to hang in before losing by 11 thanks in part to Villanova’s overaggression on defense.

The Wildcats are now notorious foulers. Their games typically take more than two hours, 20 minutes to complete. Jay Wright has a deep bench, and so foul trouble isn’t as much of a worry, although Antonio Pena’s disqualifications do hinder VU on the interior. Against a Friars team not known for its ability to get to the rim and draw contact, Villanova still committed 23 fouls and allowed 33 free-throw attempts, this a week after Georgetown attempted 50 free throws in a 103-90 Villanova defeat.

On Big Monday, it was more of the same. UConn attempted 44 free throws, making 35, and giving the Huskies a 19-point advantage at the foul line in an 84-75 UConn victory. Pena and Corey Stokes both fouled out. Much like Louisville’s win at Syracuse, Connecticut’s victory is surely a bigger positive for the Huskies than it is a negative for the Wildcats, but Villanova’s proclivity for committing fouls is reaching epic proportions.

Of major-conference teams, only Colorado and Washington send their opponents to the foul line at a greater rate than Villanova does. We can only pray that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee doesn’t matchup Villanova and Kansas State in the same bracket, because that game would have the potential of clearing three hours without any calls to the bullpen. At least Kansas State gets to the foul line more than any other team as it fouls its opponents. The Wildcats are just fourth in the Big East at getting to the line. In Big East play, opponents have gotten to the foul line 54 more times than Villanova has and scored 29 more points from the stripe.

If you’re looking for a recent example of a team with Final Four pedigree that fouled so much, you won’t find one. There were two Sweet 16 teams in 2008 with defensive free-throw-attempt-per-field-goal-attempt rates of greater than 46.0 (Villanova’s is currently at 49.7). That year, Western Kentucky (48.7) and, yes, Villanova (46.4) each made the Sweet 16 as No. 12 seeds despite being so foul happy. In 2007, Southern Illinois was a No. 4 seed and lost narrowly to Kansas in the Sweet 16 with an exact match (49.7) of VU’s FTA/FGA rate. In 2006, Billy Gillispie’s Texas A&M team won a game as a No. 12 seed over Syracuse with a rate of 48.5. That’s the extent of NCAA Tournament success for squads that even approach Villanova’s “foul”-ness since 2004.

Either Villanova must improve its ability to play defense without fouling, or it will risk losing big games at the foul line, ironic for a team that shoots free throws so well (eighth in the land at 75.8 percent). Either way, be sure to set your DVR to record at least an hour over in any game the Cats play for the rest of the season.