December 4, 2009 –
by Brendon
Most teams are about halfway through their non-conference schedules, which makes this a pretty good time to look at how conferences are doing in terms of RPI. Conference RPI is a solid predictor of how generous the committee will be to a given conference come Selection Sunday (more on that soon).
Top 10 conferences by RPI (through games of Dec. 3):
1. Big East
2. ACC
3. Big 12
4. SEC
5. Atlantic 10
6. Big Ten
7. Mountain West
8. Pac-10
9. Missouri Valley
10. WAC
Based on our expectations entering the season, there is one surprise in each direction. The Big East is the pleasant one, the Big Ten the unpleasant one. Let’s look at both.
The Big East entered this season with muted expectations thanks to the departure of so much talent from last year’s historically strong season. The thing about last year, though, was that the Big East was exceptionally tough at the top but very poor at bottom. Teams like DePaul, South Florida and Rutgers played very poorly out of conference, and those teams brought down the conference’s RPI, which ended the year just fourth. Read More »
Posted in Big East, Big Ten, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Atlantic-10, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Boston University, Bradley, Cincinnati, DePaul, Duquesne, George Mason, Gonzaga, Iowa, Louisville, Missouri Valley, Pac-10, Penn State, Providence, Rutgers, SEC, South Florida, Texas-San Antonio, Tulane, UNC-Wilmington, UNLV, Utah, Vermont, WAC, Wichita State
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November 23, 2009 –
by Brendon
After perusing all of the scores from this weekend, I count 36 that were particularly meaningful, and I’m probably underselling others. While the opening weekend of the college basketball was exciting because it was new, we definitely learned a lot more over the last three days simply because there were games that could go either way. We saw the Big East get its first loss — four of them, in fact. We saw Big Ten teams place seventh and eighth in eight-team tournaments. And at Madison Square Garden on Friday, we saw Syracuse complete the most impressive two-game stretch of the season.
Most of the interesting games were on Friday, so, it’s Friday’s games that account for most of my words on this Monday. I’ll be looking at Saturday and Sunday in subsequent posts.
Friday
Syracuse’s 87-71 win over North Carolina headlined the night’s action and rightfully so. Syracuse is a team that lost Jonny Flynn and two other key players from last year’s Sweet 16 team, and prior to last season, Syracuse had narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament twice in a row, so the Orange no longer give off the scent of a program that can simply reload.
Enter Wesley Johnson. Well acknowledging that his length and diverse skillset would be a huge asset for a team lacking both, I was very cautious about those who saw Johnson as an immediate star and potential Big East Player of the Year in his first season at Syracuse after transferring from Iowa State. Johnson had 25 points and eight rebounds on Friday, and that doesn’t convey the length he adds to Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone.
|
Poss |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Reb |
FTR |
| North Carolina |
76 |
0.93 |
0.413 |
0.250 |
0.432 |
0.302 |
| Syracuse |
76 |
1.14 |
0.610 |
0.210 |
0.343 |
0.059 |
When you look at Syracuse’s figures above, notice that this one game is a replica of the Orange’s season thus far. Syracuse’s offense has been exceptional at hitting shots, especially 2-pointers — the Orange hit an incredible 59.6 against that imposing UNC frontcourt. The rest of the offensive for Syracuse, however, has been nothing special. Syracuse continues to turn the ball over too much, has not been great on the offensive glass and has not gotten to the line. It’s important to remember, though, that shooting is the overriding factor in an offense’s success and that the type of 2-pointers Syracuse has been making are not as beholden to fate as the 3-point shot. Read More »
Posted in Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Appalachian State, Arkansas, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Big East, Big Ten, Boston College, Boston University, Brown, California, Central Florida, Chris Warren, Chris Wright, Cornell, Davidson, Dayton, DePaul, Drexel, George Mason, Indiana, Iowa State, JaMychal Green, Jeff Lebo, Jim Boeheim, Joe Trapani, Jonny Flynn, Kansas State, La Salle, Mac Koshwal, Mikhail Torrance, Mississippi, Missouri Valley, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, Providence, Rakim Sanders, Reggie Jackson, Rutgers, SEC, Seton Hall, South Carolina, St. John's, St. Joseph's, St. Mary's, Syracuse, Talor Battle, Tennessee, Terrico White, Tulane, USF, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Wesley Johnson
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November 19, 2009 –
by Brendon
The Big East is still undefeated — now 35-0 — but the team picked to win the league nearly became the first to lose on Thursday afternoon. Nearly everything went wrong in the first 38 minutes for Villanova, but the final two were all right in the Wildcats’ 69-68 victory over George Mason in the Puerto Rico Tip-off.
Two freshmen, Maalik Wayns and Isaiah Armwood, hit 3-pointers in the last two possessions to bring Villanova back from a late five-point deficit with 1:42 to play. The basket was Armwood’s first of his career, and it came after he was forced into action thanks to severe foul trouble for Villanova’s frontcourt.
The fouls were the main thing that made this game a strange one.
|
Poss |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Reb |
FTR |
| George Mason |
70 |
0.97 |
0.436 |
0.200 |
0.242 |
0.574 |
| Villanova |
70 |
0.99 |
0.434 |
0.243 |
0.452 |
0.434 |
Those free-throw rates are borderline absurd. The two teams combined for 54 fouls committed. Nine players accumulated at least four fouls, including the four Villanova Wildcats who fouled out. Among those four were Antonio Pena, Taylor King and Maurice Sutton or, in other words, all the height in Villanova’s rotation since freshman Mouphtaou Yarou was sent back to Philly with a viral infection. Read More »
Posted in Big East, Game of the Night, Mid-Majors
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Tagged Antonio Pena, Big East, Chris Wright, Colonial, Corey Fisher, Dante Cunningham, Dayton, Duke, Dwayne Anderson, George Mason, Isaiah Armwood, Jay Wright, Maalik Wayns, Maurice Sutton, Mid-Majors, Mike Morrison, Mouphtaou Yarou, Reggie Redding, Ryan Pearson, Shane Clark, Taylor King, Villanova
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November 15, 2009 –
by Brendon
In sum: It wasn’t always pretty, but the Big East emerged from the season’s first week unscathed with a 17-0 record. Seton Hall and Pittsburgh both narrowly escaped home losses on Friday night, while Providence nearly blew a 19-point lead in defeating Mercer on Sunday. All in all, it’s a good start for a league that figures to go through some growing pains in the pre-conference schedule.
Team of the week: South Florida. The opening win was a departure from the Bulls’ typical pre-conference play. For once, the offense was actually good.
|
Poss |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Reb |
FTR |
| USF |
63 |
1.06 |
0.55 |
0.21 |
0.26 |
0.32 |
| SMU |
63 |
0.97 |
0.47 |
0.19 |
0.29 |
0.21 |
The Bulls have not been a good shooting team for a while, but the difference in eFG was, basically, the margin of victory. Augustus Gilchrist’s 8-for-12, including a 3-pointer, was a big reason why the shooting efficiency was better. Chris Howard’s 6-for-6 from inside didn’t hurt either. We’ll learn a lot more about the Bulls in the week ahead. Read More »
Posted in Big East, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Alabama, Alcorn State, Arkansas, Augustus Gilchrist, Big East, Binghamton, Bobby Gonzalez, California, Chris Howard, Cincinnati, Columbia, Cornell, Dayton, DePaul, East Carolina, Eugene Harvey, George Mason, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Jeremy Hazell, Jerome Randle, Kansas State, Keon Lawrence, LaSalle, Louisville, Mercer, Miami (Fla.), Mississippi, Monmouth, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Ohio State, Penn, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Prairie View A&M, Providence, Seton Hall, South Carolina, St. Bonaventure, St. John's, St. Peter's, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, USF, Villanova, Virginia
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March 17, 2009 –
by Brendon
| Conference |
WinExp |
| Big East |
16.38 |
| ACC |
10.88 |
| Big 12 |
8.18 |
| Big Ten |
7.18 |
| Pac-10 |
5.99 |
| A-10 |
2.47 |
| C-USA |
2.41 |
| MWC |
1.83 |
| SEC |
1.50 |
| WCC |
1.49 |
| Horizon |
0.83 |
| MAAC |
0.58 |
(Only leagues with a combined win expectancy of at least 0.50 were included on chart above.)
What you see above is a chart of win expectancies for each conference this season based on historical performance of each seed in the NCAA Tournament. In my previous piece, I went back over the last three seasons to see how each conference has achieved in comparison to its seeds, and in once of each of those seasons did a conference have a win expectancy of at least 10. This year, two leagues pass the 10-win threshold, with the Big East having what has to be a record at 16.38 wins. Read More »
Posted in National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Arizona State, Arkansas, Atlantic-10, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Boston College, Bradley, Colonial, Conference USA, Connecticut, George Mason, Memphis, Mississippi State, Missouri Valley, Pac-10, SEC, Southern Cal, UAB, UCLA, Washington, Wichita State
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February 18, 2009 –
by Brendon
Of the 65 teams that ESPN’s Joe Lunardi listed on his most recent bracket projection and the eight teams he listed as the closest teams to the field who are not in the field, I found the most glaring omission to be Creighton.
After the Bluejays’ 89-84 win over Evansville on Tuesday night, Dana Altman’s team has won seven straight to move to 22-6 overall and 12-4 in conference. If Creighton wins its last four conference games and advances to the Missouri Valley title game before losing, the Bluejays will sit at 27-7 with a 14-4 conference mark. Will that be enough to get them in? None of those subsequent wins would be against a team currently in the RPI top 50, so is it possible for the Bluejays to turn any committee members’ heads? Read More »
Posted in ACC, Mid-Majors
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Tagged Arizona State, Creighton, Drake, George Mason, Illinois State, Joe Lunardi, Massachusetts, Mid-Majors, Missouri Valley, Ohio State, St. Mary's, UCLA, Utah, Virginia Tech, Wichita State
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January 22, 2009 –
by Brendon
Fatigued after a long night of basketball-watching and writing, I’ll try to keep tonight’s edition of “The Nights in Hoops” brief despite a full slate of action.
The biggest story of the night was the fall of the last of the unbeatens. Virginia Tech went to Winston-Salem and knocked off Wake Forest, 78-71, built primarily around good 2-point shooting (19-for-29, 65 percent) and 37 free-throw attempts. Despite making just 22 of those freebies, the Hokies were able to come away with the victory. The 2-point performance was especially notable against Demon Deacons team that entered the game 10th in the nation at 2-point defense (40.4 percent). Read More »
Posted in Reviews/Previews
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Tagged A.J. Price, ACC, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Blake Griffin, Brigham Young, Butler, Clemson, Colonial, Connecticut, Danny Green, Darrin Horne, Deon Thompson, Duquesne, Florida, Florida State, Frank Haith, George Mason, Georgetown, Horizon, Illinois State, Iowa, James Harden, Jarvis Varnado, Jeff Pendergraph, Jodie Meeks, Jonathan Kale, Kansas State, Keno Davis, Kentucky, LaceDarius Dunn, Louisville, LSU, Marcus Thornton, Matt Janning, Miami (Fla.), Michigan State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Missouri Valley, Nebraska, North Carolina, Northeastern, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Pac-10, Providence, Randall Hanke, Rhode Island, Richmond, Russ Pennell, Rutgers, Saint Joseph's, SEC, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, South Carolina, Southern Cal, Tasmin Mitchell, Terrence Williams, Travis Ford, Trent Johnson, Tyler Hansbrough, UNLV, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, Wayne Ellington, West Virginia, Wichita State, Wink Adams, Wisconsin, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Zam Frederick
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January 16, 2009 –
by Brendon
I’m not sure about the best way to measure consistency, but Southern Cal has to be one of the most inconsistent teams around. The same team that lost to Seton Hall and Oregon State and nearly fell to San Francisco at home also played within one point of Oklahoma on the road and went down to the wire with UCLA on Sunday night. On Thursday night, USC finally got a scalp. Read More »
Posted in Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Arizona, Arizona State, Connecticut, Demar DeRozan, George Mason, Jamal Barney, James Harden, Kemba Walker, Lawrence Westbrook, Loyola (Md.), Manhattan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Northeastern, Northwestern, Oregon, Oregon State, Purdue, Rhode Island, Saint John's, Southern Cal, Tubby Smith, UCLA, Virginia, Washington, Washington State, Wisconsin, Xavier
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