After crunching some numbers to determine which players have had the biggest impact on their teams, I narrowed down my list to eight players whom I think deserve serious consideration. Here are some of the interesting players I eliminated when paring the list to eight: Jamine Peterson (Providence), Samardo Samuels (Louisville), Jimmy Butler (Marquette), Corey Fisher (Villanova), Tim Abromaitis (Notre Dame), Jerome Dyson (Connecticut), D.J. Kennedy (St. John’s), Brad Wanamaker (Pittsburgh), and there were others.

I used full-season data for my evaluations, although I would like to put together some conference-only data once the season is over. Here are my eight finalists in tabular form:

Let me do a little explaining. You can find most of this data on Ken Pomeroy’s site, but I did a couple of calculations that you won’t find there. The two new columns are my attempt to aggregate offensive production. Pts/100 is simply Min% x ORtg x Poss. This is basically the number of points each player is responsible per 100 team possessions, so it evaluates time spent on the floor, importance to the team’s offense and overall effectiveness. PAR is the column I used to evaluate the players offensively. PAR stand for Point Above Replacement. In other words, how many points per 100 team possessions would a team lose if that player’s minutes were replaced with a replacement-level player, which I established as having a 0.75 ORtg and 0.10 Poss%. That’s basically a player who is hardly involved at all in a team’s offense and is well below average when he does have the ball.

Despite Luke Harangody’s absence due to injury, he has been such a huge part of Notre Dame’s offense (.318 Poss%) and so effective (1.130 ORtg) that he still heads the pack. Scottie Reynolds, Dominique Jones and Jeremy Hazell all group closely together 3-5 with Lazar Hayward and Da’Sean Butler a bit behind them. Greg Monroe and Wesley Johnson bringing up the rear. Monroe is down there mainly because his ORtg (1.034) is mediocre for players on this list due to mediocre offensive rebounding numbers for a player his size and a few turnovers. Johnson is last mainly because he’s not nearly as important to his team’s offense as the other players. The Orange spread the wealth on offense better than any other team in the Big East.

Next to all those offensive columns are three defensive columns for the three primary areas we can track for individual defense: defensive rebounding, blocks and steals. I aggregated those statistical areas to try to come up with a defensive rating for the eight players. Not surprisingly, Monroe and Johnson came out on top but not that far ahead of Hayward. Jones, with his diverse defensive skill set, and Harangody with his terrific rebounding were next. Finally, Butler, Reynolds and Hazell, whose defensive impact is minimal — at least statistically — are at the bottom.

Combining those objective pieces of data with team success and maybe a few intangibles, here is my countdown of Big East Player of the Year.

8. Da’Sean Butler, West Virginia: After a hot start to conference play, Butler has cooled off with sub-par shooting performances in four of his last five games, three of those Mountaineers losses. Butler is 5-for-28 on 3-pointers during that stretch and was held to single-digits in scoring in Monday’s loss to Connecticut, the only time that has happened in conference play. Butler is still up at 36 percent on 3-point shooting for the season, and he is often the Mountaineer forced to take the difficult shot in the big spot. Beyond his shooting, Butler has improved as a distributor this season, taking advantage of the opposition’s focus on him. His assist rate is far better than anything he’d done previously, and his 1.91 assist-to-turnover ratio is a career best as a result. Butler’s defensive impact is unclear. West Virginia has one of the best defenses in the Big East, but Butler is simply a helper to the team’s elite defender, Devin Ebanks.

7. Jeremy Hazell, Seton Hall: He’s a gunner, and no one can deny that, but as far as gunners go, none in the nation is more effective than Hazell, who carries a 1.186 ORtg despite being responsible for 26.9 percent of his team’s possessions while on the floor. Only three other major-conference players — Washington’s Quincy Pondexter, Oklahoma State’s James Anderson and Reynolds — are as efficient while carrying such a heavy load (I should mention Jimmer Fredette of BYU on that list as well, though he is not playing in a major conference). While acknowledging that Hazell has attempted 9.5 3-pointers per game this season, he also sports a 52-percent conversion rate on more than seven 2-point attempts per game. Moreover, Hazell has become a better passer this year, nearly doubling his assist rate while seeing his turnover rate cut by a third. He’s an all-around offensive force. The problem is that 1) his team is just pretty good rather than great, and 2) he doesn’t make much of an impact on defense. Hazell will pick up steals but won’t block any shots and doesn’t rebound well for a 6-foot-5 player.

6. Wesley Johnson, Syracuse: It’s rare when the likely best team in a conference doesn’t have one of the top five choices for player of the year, and for that reason, expect Johnson to be near the top of actual voting. Johnson is a terrific and versatile player, able to change the game at either end of the floor. He is the only player on this list to rank in the nation’s top 500 in defensive rebounding, steal and block rates, and he should win the honor given to the Big East’s top defender. My main problem with Johnson’s candidacy is that he’s just not that important to Syracuse’s offense. Of all the players on this list, his team’s offense would suffer the least if he didn’t play, just because Syracuse is so balanced. In fact, Syracuse has won several games, especially in the second half of the conference season, in which Johnson has been either ineffective on offense or simply anonymous. NBA scouts will not be using this list to determine where to select him, as Johnson figures to be the first Big East player taken in June.

5. Luke Harangody, Notre Dame: This ranking is a bit harsh for a player who has been every bit as good as expected on offense and is a very strong defensive rebounder as well. The problem is that Harangody has now missed three full games and part of another, all in Big East play, with a knee injury. A Big East Player of the Year needs to play in almost every game, and that’s just tough luck for Luke and the Irish. Harangody has been just as good this season, maybe even a bit more efficient than last year. He’s shot the ball better all-around, adding a 36-percent 3-point shot to his arsenal. Harangody has not been quite as good on either offensive glass or as good a shot-blocker, but he will go down as one of the great offensive forces in the Big East’s history.

4. Greg Monroe, Georgetown: Because he doesn’t put up gaudy points (15.7 ppg) and rebounding numbers (9.6 ppg), many still underrate Monroe, but his impact is huge. He’s an exceptional passer, which is a great fit in John Thompson III’s offensive system. He’s had at least five assists in seven Big East games thus far. Monroe has not been quite as efficient as a shooter as his share of the load has increased. He’s seen his field-goal and free-throw percentages drop as a sophomore. Nonetheless, Monroe is a top offensive center, and he is also an impact player on defense. Monroe is the best defensive rebounder in the Big East and a terrific shot-blocker with a block rate almost identical to the more lauded Johnson. To top that off, Monroe is second on his team in steals. If he could have bumped his shooting percentages up and cut his turnovers a bit, he’d be in line to win this thing.

3. Dominique Jones, South Florida: If USF could have continued streaking through the conference, this award would have been Jones’. Only Harangody and Dyson are as involved in their teams’ offense among Big East players, but neither stays on the floor as long as Jones. Wednesday’s blowout loss at Villanova was the first time Jones sat for more than three minutes in a game since a Jan. 16 win over Rutgers. Jones is just about impossible to keep out of the paint with his ability to finish inside (52 percent on twos) and get to the line (74.9 percent on eight attempts per game). He also hits on 35 percent on his 3-pointers to keep opponents honest. Jones had the individual performance of the season with 46 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists and three steals in USF’s heart-stopping comeback win against Providence on Jan. 23. The assists are an underrated part of Jones’ game and another reason why he is a complete player. To be truly complete, though, one needs to be good on defense, and Jones is. He is a terrific defensive rebounder for a guard, grabs nearly two steals per game and even has 16 blocks. If his team was better, he’d be No. 1 on this list.

2. Scottie Reynolds, Villanova: Offensively, it’s hard to complain about anything Reynolds has done this year. He’s a huge part of his team’s offense and is nonetheless the most efficient player among these eight. Most of that efficiency is thanks to his amazing shooting — 40.7 percent on 3-pointers, a mind-boggling 55.4 percent on 2-pointers and 82.2 percent on free-throws. His 63.6 true-shooting percentage is behind just Georgetown’s Austin Freeman, Notre Dame’s Tim Abromaitis and Connecticut’s Gavin Edwards among Big East players. Only Freeman even approaches the frequency with which Reynolds shoots. If there are any complaints to be had about Reynolds’ game, it’s that he is not a great defender, although he’s one of the few Wildcats who do not foul much. Also, he’s barely present on either backboard. That’s not his job, but some players can do something approaching Reynolds’ job on offense while still grabbing some rebounds. Note: a winning performance at Syracuse could change everything.

1. Lazar Hayward, Marquette: After a tough early-season loss to Florida State, I marveled at the heavy offensive load the Marquette senior was carrying. Not much has changed since then. Only four players in the nation take a greater portion of their team’s shots when on the floor than Hayward. Despite taking so many shots, Hayward has still managed to stay efficient thanks to a 34.3 3-point percentage and an 83.5 3-point percentage. Hayward also rarely turns it over. In fact, he’s a lot like Hazell — he takes and makes a lot of shots and limits turnovers. The difference, though, is that Hayward makes a huge impact on the glass and on defense. I count 16 major-conference players in the top 100 in defensive rebounding rate, but none is as short as the 6-foot-6 Hayward. Did I mention he leads all Big East players with 30 steals in conference games? You won’t find another player not named Evan Turner who can carry such a heavy burden on offense and make such a large impact on defense. It would be nice if Hayward shot the ball a bit better than 48.6 eFG, but no one’s perfect. More importantly, despite losing four of the top six players from last year’s team, Marquette, led by Hayward — and some help from Butler’s dramatic buzzer-beaters — is in position for a fifth straight NCAA Tournament bid.

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.

It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.

Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference.

In the last two projections, finding a team to fill out the third seedline was the biggest problem, but Wisconsin’s victory over MSU vaulted the Badgers to a No. 3, eliminating that problem. The new problem was filling out the fourth seedline, where a half-dozen or more teams have good cases to join New Mexico, BYU and Baylor. I went with Ohio State because the Buckeyes seemed to fit the best, despite ranking just 22nd in the BTI seeding model. A bit of a bump for Evan Turner’s injury combined with OSU’s recent terrific play gives the Buckeyes the nod over Temple, Vanderbilt, Butler, Gonzaga, Tennessee and Northern Iowa.

Moving In as At-large: South Florida

Moving Out as At-large: Connecticut

Moving In as Automatic: Old Dominion (from at-large to automatic; Colonial), Lehigh (Patriot)

Moving Out as Automatic: George Mason (Colonial), Lafayette (Patriot)

On the Bubble: There was not a ton of movement from one side of the cutline to the other, with USF getting the big bump after Wednesday’s win at Georgetown, while UConn finally couldn’t justify its spot any longer after a sorry performance at Louisville. The last team in and last team out remained the same, as neither South Carolina nor Dayton played during the midweek. There were a couple of big moves from teams that had been well outside the field and are now knocking on the door. Notre Dame and Washington, with Thursday home wins against solid opposition, moved into the last 10 out.

ACC: Duke jumps back on to the No. 2 seedline after an impressive performance at home against Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils still have that ugly 1-4 road record, but seven wins against the top 50 — a total that is tied with Kansas for most in the nation — have a way of making the road mark easier to ignore. Three of Duke’s next four are on the road against teams that don’t appear to be headed to the NCAA Tournament, so the Blue Devils could pad the road record over the next 12 days.

The most interesting action in the ACC is happening at the bubble where Maryland’s road win at Florida State was a huge victory for the Terps’ chances and equally damaging to FSU. Gary Williams’ team is not comfortable, but it is in very solid shape thanks to a 5-2 conference mark. With six top-100 wins and two top-50 wins, FSU is still in decent shape, but home losses kill the RPI, and Leonard Hamilton’s saw his team’s fall to 44 after Thursday’s loss. Maryland hosts UNC, and FSU hosts Miami this weekend.

A little further from the cutline are Virginia Tech and Virginia, both of whom secured solid home wins against second-tier ACC competition this week. Both schools still have plenty of work to do to compensate for weak play out of conference — in VaTech’s case, that’s mainly due to a wimpy schedule. Virginia’s final nine conference games should be its toughest, starting with a home matchup against Wake Forest on Saturday. Virginia Tech hosts Clemson that same day.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 2)
Georgia Tech (No. 6)
Wake Forest (No. 7)
Clemson (No. 7, moved to No. 8 for bracket balancing)
Maryland (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Florida State (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing; third-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (18th-to-last out)
Virginia (20th-to-last out)

Big 12: The one thing you should notice about the Big 12 is just how comfortable its seven bids look. None of the seven teams are among the last 10 in, and that’s true even after Oklahoma State lost its second straight on Monday to Texas. There’s still plenty of time for OSU, Missouri or Texas A&M to play their ways out of the field, but nine conference wins should get each in.

Texas got back on track with a terrific second half in Stillwater on Monday, Kansas State blew out Nebraska in Lincoln, and Baylor had no trouble with Iowa State at home. Kansas remained undefeated after a win on Wednesday, but it took overtime to leave Boulder with the victory. All four teams are playing for seeding, although Baylor — at just 4-3 in conference — needs to be careful that it doesn’t get swept in its upcoming road games. Scott Drew’s team travels to A&M on Saturday and Nebraska on Wednesday.

Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Texas (No. 2)
Kansas State (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 4)
Missouri (No. 8)
Texas A&M (No. 8)
Oklahoma State (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for bracket balancing)

Big East: Georgetown’s home loss to South Florida dropped the Hoyas down a seedline, but Syracuse, Villanova and West Virginia all won comfortably. The real intrigue is taking place near the bubble where eight teams cannot be sure of their March fate.

Louisville got the win it needed at home against Connecticut, and the Cards are now halfway to the 10 league wins they’ll likely need to make the NCAAs. UConn is now in very tough shape. The winless week against Providence and Marquette will be what fans will point to if the Huskies fail to dance, and after their play in Louisville, it’s hard to see many more W’s coming from this bunch. At the very minimum, UConn needs to finish 5-3 in conference to have a decent chance at the Garden in March, and it will probably take a 6-2 mark to seal a bid. The Huskies still face four very difficult road games, including trips to Syracuse and Villanova.

Pittsburgh continued to slide with a weak second half at West Virginia on Wednesday. The Panthers are still in better shape than the other seven Big East teams fighting for 3-5 berths, but that gap is closing. The Panthers host Seton Hall, Robert Morris and West Virginia over the next week. The Pirates lost their second straight road game at Villanova on Tuesday.

I thought that Notre Dame’s loss to Rutgers last Saturday put the death knell in its realistic NCAA Tournament hopes, but the Irish made a surprising jump in my model with the win over Cincinnati on Thursday. UND has a very difficult upcoming schedule, and will probably need to finish 5-3, but there’s definitely still a chance. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is still in the field despite the fact that the Bearcats don’t have the look of an NCAA Tournament team. The Bearcats — still being propped up by non-league wins over Maryland and Vanderbilt — will have to win on the road if they hope to earn a bid, and they have four more chances. But first, UC hosts Syracuse on Sunday.

How could I have gotten this far and not mentioned USF, which is trying to hone in on Northwestern’s feel-good rooting interest? Two weeks ago, the Bulls had won just one Big East game on the road and had never won two straight league games. Stan Heath has now seen his team win two Big East road games and four straight in a fortnight, all without top post player Augustus Gilchrist. Irresistible scorer Dominique Jones has to be conference player of the year, right? The new road warriors travel to Notre Dame and Marquette on the next two weekends. A 10-8 finish and a win in New York will almost certainly get the Bulls in.

Finally, there’s Marquette, which avenged that loss at DePaul by defeating the Blue Demons by 11 in Milwaukee. MU is back to .500 in conference and doesn’t face a top-four Big East team the rest of the way. That means a lot of winnable games — but also tricky ones — starting Saturday in Providence against a Friars team that the Golden Eagles defeated by 30 on Jan. 17.

Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Georgetown (No. 3)
Pittsburgh (No. 7)
Louisville (No. 9)
Cincinnati (No. 10, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing; ninth-to-last in)
South Florida (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing; sixth-to-last in)
Notre Dame (third-to-last out)
Marquette (sixth-to-last out)
Connecticut (10th-to-last out)
Seton Hall (16th-to-last out)

Big Ten: I discussed most of the action surrounding the first four teams in the general bracket breakdown that leads this piece, so let’s get straight to the bubble. Illinois had a nice win at Iowa, and Northwestern pulled away from Michigan in the second half. Minnesota was off. The Illini have just completed their very generous early schedule, while the Wildcats have just begun the soft underbelly of its league schedule. Chances are all three teams meet somewhere around .500, but it’ll take at least 10 conference wins for any of these teams to dance.

The big game for the bubble teams this weekend is in Champaign where Illinois hosts Michigan State, and Bruce Weber’s team will try to prove that its improved 2-point defense wasn’t a product of a soft recent schedule. Minnesota tries to bounce back from an ugly loss to Ohio State with a trip to Penn State, and Northwestern hosts Indiana.

Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Wisconsin (No. 3)
Michigan State (No. 3)
Ohio State (No. 4)
Minnesota (seventh-to-last out)
Illinois (14th-to-last out)

Pac-10: California’s hopes of securing an NCAA Tournament bid before reaching Los Angeles for the Pac-10 Tournament took a major hit with a loss in LA at USC on Thursday night. Arizona, the team Cal entered Thursday tied with atop the league standings, had a tough loss at Washington, as top interior scorer Derrick Williams fouled out in just seven minutes. With those two results plus Arizona State’s win at Washington State and UCLA’s victory over Stanford, there is now a four-way tie atop the Pac-10 standings at 6-4.

Many people are assuming that the Pac-10 will only get one bid, and that may be true, but because it’s assumed to be true, most are ignoring the four teams in the league that can still earn at-large berths. Along with Cal and Arizona, Washington is now within striking distance after the win over the Wildcats, and the Sun Devils also have a puncher’s chance with a strong finish. ASU and UW meet in Seattle on Saturday in a critical game for both teams.

Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (fourth-to-last out)
Arizona (eighth-to-last out)
Arizona State (15th-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky has finally moved up to No. 4 in the BTI seeding model after a second straight quality win on Tuesday, this one against Mississippi. Tennessee narrowly escaped LSU, and Vanderbilt had a tough home win against Mississippi State. All three of those SEC East teams are comfortably positioned for an NCAA bid.

Elsewhere in the East, Florida got a much-needed road victory at Alabama. It was a game that UF probably could not afford to lose if it has hopes of getting the 10 conference wins that would assure a bid, though a 9-7 mark would still give the Gators a chance. South Carolina was on a bye and remained on the very edge of the field. The Gamecocks head to Tennessee on Saturday.

Out West, things continue to look sour for the Mississippi schools. MSU dropped its third straight road game by a combined 13 points in Nashville on Wednesday. With a trip to Gainesville on Saturday, the Bulldogs are in desperate need of a win or risk losing touch with the field. The Rebels dropped to 4-4 in conference after a 10-point loss in Lexington. That was expected — the killer was the Sunday home loss to Arkansas. Andy Kennedy’s team will have to avoid a similarly injurious defeat when it hosts Alabama on Saturday. MSU and Ole Miss meet in Starkville on Tuesday.

Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 5)
Tennessee (No. 6)
Mississippi (No. 11, fourth-to-last in)
Florida (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing; second-to-last in)
South Carolina (No. 13, last in)
Mississippi State (19th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: It’s becoming clear to me that the toughest part about seeding the upcoming tournament will be determining what to do with the glut top mid-major teams. Be it New Mexico, Butler, Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Siena or Cornell (along with many others), bracket projectors are going to have a hard time figuring out the appropriate place for each. In the past, selection committees have been wildly erratic in placing teams like this, sometimes missing the projectors’ consensus by 2-3 seedlines.

For instance, Gonzaga and Butler are both ranked in the top-15 in the Coaches Poll, but the two teams are running well behind that (24th and 27th respectively) in the BTI model. On the other hand, Northern Iowa was 22nd in the poll but is 16th in the BTI. Rhode Island and Xavier are unranked but are slotted 23rd and 25th (right with Butler and Gonzaga) in the BTI model. The NCAA Selection Committee is not a slave to public opinion, and it definitely favors my model over the polls, but the relationship is not as strong with mid-majors as with the big boys.

Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 4)
Brigham Young (No. 4)
Temple (No. 5)
Butler (No. 5)
Gonzaga (No. 5)
Northern Iowa (No. 6)
Rhode Island (No. 6)
Xavier (No. 7)
UNLV (No. 8)
UAB (No. 8)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Charlotte (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Richmond (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 10, seventh-to-last in)
Siena (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing)
Utah State (No. 12)
Cornell (No. 12)
Dayton (last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (second-to-last out)
San Diego State (fifth-to-last out)
William & Mary (ninth-to-last out)
Northeastern (11th-to-last out)
Wichita State (12th-to-last out)
Tulsa (13th-to-last out)
Memphis (17th-to-last out)

Right now, the Pirates are just on the outside looking in — fifth out based on my at-large prediction model, but here are some reasons why Seton Hall is good enough to hear its name called on March 14.

Depth: Coach Bobby Gonzalez always had kids who could play and play hard, he just never had enough of them. This season, he has 10 guys whom he’s comfortable playing at various times, and a solid eight-man rotation that could change depending on the opponent. The addition of three transfers — Herb Pope, Jeff Robinson and Keon Lawrence — and two freshmen — Jamel Jackson and Ferrakohn Hall — has allowed Gonzalez to keep his best players healthy and rested. That has helped Seton Hall down the stretch of games and should help down the stretch of this season.

After finishing in the bottom quarter of the Big East in bench minutes during Gonzalez’s first three seasons, Seton Hall now gets the fifth-most minutes out of its bench of any Big East team. And that undersells the quality of Seton Hall’s depth, since two members of the rotation — Robinson and Lawrence — have only been eligible for the last 10 games.

During Gonzo’s other seasons, Seton Hall has started fast in conference and finished slow. Part of that is how the schedule set up, but part of that was always a deteriorating rotation thanks to lack of depth.

Thanks to improved depth, a split like that is unlikely to happen this year.

Schedule: Another reason why Seton Hall fans shouldn’t expect a late-season freefall is the schedule. The first part of the league slate has been brutal for the Pirates and is the biggest part of why they started 1-4. With wins over Louisville and Pittsburgh, Seton Hall is right where it needs to be to make a run at the winning conference record that would likely secure an NCAA Tournament bid.

Massachusetts at Central Florida (7 p.m. ET): A pair of middling mid-majors go at it in Orlando on Friday night. For UMass, it’s finally time to put a terrible 2008-09 season in the rearview mirror. Last winter was nothing short of a disaster for a Minuteman team coming off of a 25-win season and returning an all-conference backcourt. What UMass did not return, though, was its coach, Travis Ford, who left for Oklahoma State. Folks in Amherst expected Ford to take UMass back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1998, but instead, he was helping those in Stillwater end a four-year drought. Derek Kellogg came in with an entirely new system, and the Minuteman never quite made the adjustment. A schizophrenic team, UMass started 1-6, later defeated Kansas, Dayton, Temple and Rhode Island, but still finished just 12-18.

The poor year wasted the senior seasons of Chris Lowe, Luke Bonner and breakout star Tony Gaffney, but all-league guard Ricky Harris returns along with Wake Forest transfer Anthony Gurley and highly-touted recruit Terrell Vinson. Gurley was, for all intents and purposes, a failure in his first season in Amherst, showing the ability to hit an outside shot (his 56 makes was second on the team to Harris’ 87) but do little else. The 6-foot-7 Vinson got an offer from Providence and was also recruited by Maryland and Cincinnati but wound up with Kellogg in the Atlantic 10. He will be asked to replace some of the rebounding Gaffney took with him as Vinson develops his offensive game. Oregon State transfer 6-foot-9 Sean Carter was active in a narrow exhibition win over Dowling (N.Y.) on Saturday and could give UMass a big boost in the frontcourt.

Central Florida has been one of the underrated mid-major winners since joining the Conference USA for the 2005-06 season, but the Knights’ 7-9 conference record last season is their low-water mark. Despite Jermaine Taylor’s fantastic season — he was responsible for more possessions while on the floor than any other player in the nation — UCF was only mediocre on offense and even worse on defense. After starting 15-6 and 5-2 in conference and appearing poised for a postseason berth, UCF lost 8-of-10 — including a home loss to lowly Rice.

With Taylor gone, there are a lot of possessions to be had, and, with 6-foot-7 senior Tony Davis ruled ineligible to play this season, it’s unclear who will step into the void for Kirk Speraw’s team. Sophomores P.J. Gaynor and A.J. Rompza were the most active offensive players in UCF’s initial game last week against St. Leo’s (Fla.).

There don’t seem to be a lot of answers for Central Florida against a UMass team returning the type of all-league guard UCF is trying to replace. It may not foretell a hugely successful season to come, but I like the Minutemen to get off on the right foot with a road victory.

USF at SMU (8:30 p.m. ET): In Year 3 of Stan Heath’s tenure, the Bulls return enough and add enough to be a real surprise in the Big East. First, the old. Dominique Jones is simply one of the best all-around scorers in the Big East. He also has a rare combination of distribution and care with the ball for a lead guard. The dependable but largely irrelevant Chris Howard returns as Jones’ backcourt mate, and mid-year transfer Mike Mercer will also get plenty of opportunities to turn his exceptional athleticism into actual production. Anthony Crater, a transfer point guard from Ohio State, will be eligible by the end of December, and by then, Heath should know whether Crater’s a better option than Howard or Crater.

USF’s frontcourt is also stacked with transfers. There’s Augustus Gilchrist, who had to sit out a semester last season after decommitting late from Maryland. Besides the ability to block shots, he showed little of the interior presence he was supposed to come to Tampa with, but that’s why freshmen become sophomores. Junior-college transfer Jarrid Famous could have a game to match his name, and he should be the No. 2 offensive option for Heath. Famous had 20 points, eight rebounds and six assists with no turnovers in a blowout win over Florida Southern in what Bulls fans hope is a sign of things to come. The more I type, the more I think that my 14th-place prediction was too conservative.

Matt Doherty is entering his fourth season as head coach at SMU — after the flameout at his alma mater, UNC, and a one-year rendezvous at Florida Atlantic — and the Mustangs haven’t won more than four conference games in any of his first three seasons. This season, everyone of import except shot-blocker Bamba Fall returns for Doherty, most notably the backcourt of Derek Williams and Paul McCoy. Neither player left the floor much last season out of necessity, and McCoy was voted to the C-USA all-conference third team thanks to his ability to score reasonably efficiently and to pick up steals at the other end of the floor. SMU, after a last-place finish last season, was bumped up to ninth in the preseason coaches poll this year.

If Doherty is to succeed at SMU, one would figure that positive results would come by the end of Year 4. He has plenty returning, but only the next four months will tell us whether the players he’s brought in are good enough to win big, even in the Conference USA. They haven’t been so far.

Heath, on the other hand, has used USF’s Big East affiliation to be extremely aggressive in remaking his roster into something capable of competing in the Big East. He’s been able to attract the unsatisfied and the wayfarer to his program, and perhaps that all comes together this season with wins in conference — his teams are 7-28 against conference opponents over the last two seasons. He’s got two years to turn this roster into a contender before Jones leaves, and the next step on that journey is Friday night. Heath’s teams have not won a road opener since Dec. 7, 2004 when his Arkansas team defeated Missouri by 10.

I’ll be back tomorrow with the games to look out for on Saturday and Sunday.

• ACC
• Big 12
• Big East
• Big Ten
• Pac-10
• SEC
• Mid-Majors

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

ACC

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed.

North Carolina (10-6; 28.7): The preseason rankings of this UNC team do seem a bit lofty considering the lack of experience in Chapel Hill, but the talent is certainly there. Roy Williams can throw Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, Tyler Zeller and freshman John Henson into a potentially lethal frontcourt. If the guard play is good enough to run UNC’s up-and-down attack, this team could be ready to win big soon. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Maryland (10-6; 86.9): The Terrapins have been off the national radar for a few years, but Gary Williams has a team good enough to matter again. Led by Greivis Vasquez, the backcourt is terrific, but the lack of size in the frontcourt should keep Maryland from being an elite team. NCAA No. 5 seed.

Clemson (10-6; 57.2): The Tigers have become the college basketball version of Ohio State. There’s not a lot of respect for Oliver Purnell’s team after another fast start followed by a long, slow fade, but the Tigers have brought in a very good recruiting class to surround Trevor Booker and Demontez Stitt. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Georgia Tech (9-7; 69.8): With Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors, there aren’t a lot of frontcourts excited about matching up with the Yellow Jackets. But the recent underachieving seasons will haunt Paul Hewitt unless he can turn this team into a top-20 club. The talent is definitely there. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Florida State (8-8; 64.0): Toney Douglas may have been the most valuable player in the ACC last season, and he’s gone, but Leonard Hamilton has brought in a stud recruit — Michael Snaer — and returns most of the rest of the team that achieved a No. 5 seed in last year’s tournament. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Wake Forest (8-8; 56.9): The Deacons’ two best players are gone, but a couple of great recruiting classes made sure that plenty of talent remains. This needs to be the year that Al-Farouq Aminu emerges as a force for WF to place this high. NCAA No. 9 seed.

Boston College (7-9; 77.1): Everyone’s back but Tyrese Rice, and some consider that departure a blessing, but the Eagles will be hard-pressed to replace everything he did on offense. And that’s important, considering how offense-dependent Al Skinner’s teams tend to be. If they can spread Rice’s load around efficiently, the Eagles will be in position to make another NCAA Tournament. NIT.

Virginia Tech (7-9; 66.9): Seth Greenberg has had teams good enough to make the NCAAs the last two seasons and come up just short. This team brings back three starters and is certainly good enough to get in the field, but there is just so much competition in the league. Much like last season with FSU, who entered it with lowered expectations after a couple of recent near misses, VaTech may surprise and nab a bid this season. NIT.

Miami (6-10; 48.3): Last year was the year for Frank Haith to get the Hurricanes into the Sweet 16, but things fell apart in conference play. There’s still enough returning to be competitive but more than enough holes to think the NCAA Tournament isn’t in the near future. NIT.

Virginia (6-10; 90.6): The Cavs will be better this season, but there doesn’t appear to be enough depth in the talent base to support Sylvan Landesburg and make UVa truly competitive. An NIT bid would be a terrific accomplishment, but I think the Cavaliers end up just short. No postseason.

North Carolina State (3-13; 47.1): The bar is so low for Sidney that even a 10th- or 11th-place finish would be a pleasant surprise. The Wolfpack does have a nice recruiting class coming in, but the best of the bunch — Lorenzo Brown — will be spending the year in prep school. No postseason.

Big 12

Kansas (14-2; 100.0): There aren’t any questions left about whether Bill Self can win big, and there aren’t many questions about the talent in Lawrence. Much like UNC a year ago, this team will be judged by what it does in March, even if a 30-win season precedes the NCAAs. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Texas (12-4; 75.1): After underachieving last season, Rick Barnes brings back about as stacked a team as you’ll see in college basketball. With Dexter Pittman and Damion James in the frontcourt and Avery Bradley in the backcourt, this team will be a handful on both ends of the floor. Oh, and there are 11 other players good enough to see ample run. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Texas A&M (10-6; 72.1): The Big 12’s consistent overachievers, Mark Turgeon’s Aggies have enough experience to make them an annoyance for the league’s best teams, especially if they’re able to weather the loss of Chinemelu Elonu to the NBA. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Kansas State (10-6; 66.4): The folks in Manhattan have now been witnesses to three straight 20-win seasons, and this team may be the best of the bunch. With Denis Clemente running the show and plenty of talent around him, Frank Martin should get the Wildcats back to the NCAAs for the second time in three seasons. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Oklahoma (9-7; 39.3): This is Willie Warren’s show now, and the point guard is good enough to get this team into the NCAA Tournament with minimal help. The Sooners will struggle on the glass, but Jeff Capel should have them back in the NCAAs again nevertheless. NCAA No. 10 seed.

Oklahoma State (8-8; 54.3): Travis Ford lost four players from last year’s rotation, but James Anderson returns along with a terrific set of newcomers. It took OSU time to get used to Ford’s system, but a year in, the Cowboys should avoid last year’s slow start even with less experience. NCAA No. 11 seed.

Missouri (8-8; 55.6): The losses of Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll are massive, but Missouri is built on depth, and the Tigers should have enough to hang around NCAA consideration this winter. It will be up to J.T. Tiller and Zaire Taylor to handle a much larger load on offense. NIT.

Baylor (6-10; 44.2): The Bears were expected to compete for the Sweet 16 last season but ended up in the NIT final. This year, Scott Drew has to replace a lot of talent and experience with three starters gone. LaceDarius Dunn’s emergence as a star is Step No. 1 toward the Bears competing for an NCAA bid. NIT.

Iowa State (6-10; 77.1): Greg McDermott expects to have his best team in Ames, but, considering he hasn’t won more than six league games in any of his first three seasons, “best” doesn’t really mean a lot. Without someone to help out Craig Brackins, the Cyclones’ offense will continue to come up short. NIT.

Texas Tech (4-12; 71.2): Pat Knight implemented a new run-and-gun system, but a 3-13 record showed that it paid few dividends. Knight has some nice pieces, including Mike Singletary, coming back, but his team will need to be better than “nice” to compete with that Big 12 South schedule. No postseason.

Colorado (4-12; 89.7): This would appear to be a good opportunity for Jeff Bzdelik to set a tenure-high in conference wins. The Buffaloes have won just four Big 12 games in Bzdelik’s first two years, and I predict they will match that this season. We’ll see whether Year 3 has talent ready to complement Cory Higgins. No postseason.

Nebraska (4-12; 39.1): Few coaches lost as much as Doc Sadler did in Lincoln, and it’ll be hard to put together a competitive roster with a lack of impact recruits. Finishing in the league’s top 10 would be a noteworthy accomplishment for this group this winter. No postseason.

Big East

West Virginia (14-4; 81.8): The difference between West Virginia ending this season in a second-round flameout instead of in the Final Four is all in the point guard. Darryl Bryant played well for much of last season but showed he was unable to run a consistent offense in several big spots. If either he or Joe Mazzulla can get this offense flowing, there is enough talent for the ‘Neers to be scary good. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Villanova (13-5; 63.6): The Wildcats are the popular choice to win the Big East, and they may in fact do that, but they’ll need to first replace what Dwayne Anderson and Dante Cunningham took with them from last year’s team. Without those two to hit the glass, a lot of pressure falls on Mouphtaou Yarou, the 6-foot-9 freshman. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Georgetown (12-6; 68.0): I’m willing to chalk up the last two months of last season as merely an aberration for John Thompson III’s Hoyas. With a terrific nucleus returning — Greg Monroe, Austin Freeman, Chris Wright — and enough pieces around those three, the Hoyas are good enough to challenge for the Big East. NCAA No. 4 seed.

Connecticut (12-6; 37.9): Despite heavy losses, we should expect Jim Calhoun’s Huskies to be good immediately this winter. Kemba Walker and Jerome Dyson form a dynamic backcourt, while Stanley Robinson and some tantalizing young frontcourt talents will do the dirty work inside. No. 4 seed.

Louisville (11-7; 52.0): The Cardinals need Samardo Samuels to dominate in the post if they are to be an efficient offensive team. With so much experience in the backcourt and athleticism in the frontcourt, the defense should be typically strong. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Seton Hall (11-7; 82.9): Every year, Seton Hall exceeds its preseason projection, and this year should be no different. Bobby Gonzalez’s Pirates are picked 10th in the league despite losing only one key player — Paul Gause — and adding three impact transfers, notably Herb Pope and Keon Lawrence. It’s as if his fellow coaches are begging Gonzo to overachieve. NCAA No. 10 seed.

Cincinnati (10-8; 78.8): With Lance Stephenson now cleared to play, everything is in line for Cincinnati’s first NCAA Tournament berth as a member of the Big East. It’s easy to forget that point guard Cashmere Wright entered last preseason as one of the league’s top newcomers before tearing his knee and missing the season. He’s back now, too, along with Deonta Vaughn and enough good players that UC has few excuses not to make the Dance. NCAA No. 11 seed.

Pittsburgh (9-9; 35.2): It’s very hard to pick the Panthers to not make the field after being one of the consistently excellent teams in college basketball for nearly a decade. On the other hand, talent is talent, and while there are some good players here, it is a tall task to replace the three seniors plus DeJuan Blair, who all departed after last season. I nervously expect Jamie Dixon to make me look foolish. NIT.

Syracuse (9-9; 39.4): Like Pittsburgh, Syracuse also has a lot to replace. Jonny Flynn leaves the biggest hole, one that will be filled by someone who didn’t play for Syracuse last season — freshman Brandon Triche or Scoop Jardine, an injury red-shirt a year ago. The Orange frontcourt of Wesley Johnson, Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson is good enough to make SU an NCAA Tournament team if the point-guard situation sorts itself out. NIT.

Notre Dame (8-10; 55.5): With Luke Harangody back for a final season, the Irish find themselves on the edge of both preseason polls. The problem is that, with each passing year, Harangody has less and less talent around him. Tory Jackson, Ben Hansbrough and Jonathan Peoples make up a solid backcourt rotation, but what of Tyrone Nash in the frontcourt with Tim Abromaitis or maybe Carleton Scott? The loss of Purdue transfer Scott Martin was damaging, but this team didn’t do much for me even before that. NIT.

St. John’s (8-10; 96.4): If there ever was to be a year when Norm Roberts’ program was to make the leap, this is it. With a team full of experienced juniors and in a weakened league, this is the Red Storm’s chance to break into the top half of the league. The offense needs to be more efficient for that to happen. NIT.

Marquette (7-11; 33.6): The loss of Junior Cadougan to a season-ending ruptured Achilles really hurts a team that was already going to struggle to replace the best set of guards to ever form one class at Marquette. Lazar Hayward should put up all-league numbers, because 1) he’s really good, and 2) there aren’t any proven offensive options surrounding him. No postseason.

Providence (6-12; 34.5): The Friars enter the season with only three players who saw any action last season, and all are guards. That leaves large problems on the backboards, but at least the dynamic combination of Sharaud Curry and Marshon Brooks should excite the Friar faithful in Year 2 of the Keno Davis Era. No postseason.

South Florida (6-12; 70.1): Dominique Jones is very good, and Stan Heath has added former Ohio State point guard Anthony Crater as his backcourt mate. If Augustus Gilchrist can be the force many expect up front, the Bulls may have the start of something. No postseason.

Rutgers (5-13; 52.1): The Fred Hill tenure has never quite gotten off the ground despite the string of touted recruits that have landed in Piscataway. Mike Rosario and Greg Echenique will continue to carry the load for a team that has a very difficult time scoring. No postseason.

DePaul (4-14; 61.4): Jerry Wainwright couldn’t have gotten worse news for the short-term of his program than Dar Tucker’s departure, but at least the conference isn’t quite so strong, which makes back-to-back 0-18 seasons unlikely. No postseason.

Big Ten

Michigan State (13-5; 73.7): With a fully healthy Raymar Morgan, Michigan State will have that dynamic slasher that it lacked even in advancing to the national title game last season. That along with Kalin Lucas and a typically stout interior defense has Tom Izzo thinking about winning one additional game this season. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Purdue (13-5; 82.0): Perhaps I’m a fool for this Purdue team, because the Boilermakers were mild disappointments last season. If Matt Painter’s team doesn’t have the frontline talent necessary, a No. 1 seed will look silly in March, but I think a healthy Robbie Hummel plus JaJuan Johnson to go with the great man-to-man defense puts Purdue among the elite. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Ohio State (11-7; 87.8): Evan Turner is awesome — there isn’t much that he doesn’t do well, and there’s a good chance he’s the best player in the Big Ten. Ohio State will need to do a better job taking care of the ball and defending the three to finish this high. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Minnesota (10-8; 90.2): The Golden Gopher train ran out of steam with a 6-10 finish, but the two-year turnaround is still remarkable. Almost everyone is back from last year’s team, and Tubby Smith also adds two top-70 recruits. NCAA No. 5 seed.

Wisconsin (10-8; 79.6): Wisconsin just wins and wins and wins. After a six-game losing streak put last season in jeopardy, Bo Ryan’s team reeled off five straight wins, four by at least 10 points to sneak into the field. There, the Badgers, a No. 12 seed, knocked off No. 5 Florida State in overtime. Ryan does lose two-thirds of his frontcourt, but look for Keaton Nankivil to emerge as the next efficient low-post presence. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Michigan (9-9; 81.7): Like Tubby Smith, John Beilein needed just two years to take the Wolverines from also-rans to the NCAAs. Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims have become one of the league’s best 1-2 punches, and Beilein has surrounded them with good shooters and passers. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Illinois (9-9; 62.7): It was a good bounceback season for Bruce Weber but one that ended with a clank in the NCAA Tournament. Three key rotation players are gone, but Demetri McCamey and Mike Davis lead a solid group of returners to go with a strong recruiting class for a team that should be one of the league’s best defensively. NCAA No. 9 seed.

Northwestern (8-10; 78.7): This may be the Wildcats’ best shot yet to make the NCAAs, but they picked a tough year to crack the first division of the Big Ten. Kevin Coble is one of the best players in the league, and he gives Bill Carmody a go-to guy in an offensive style that doesn’t usually have one. If Carmody can develop a replacement for Craig Moore’s 3-point shooting, Northwestern could break the NCAA Tournament hex. NIT.

Indiana (7-11; 67.0): Tom Crean should have Indiana back to a level of competitiveness this year after last year’s dismal start. The Hoosiers add the best recruiting class in the Big Ten and transfer Jeremiah Rivers from Georgetown. Rivers will bring tough perimeter defense, but the offense, which was the biggest problem last year, will have to come from elsewhere. NIT.

Penn State (6-12; 56.1): The Nittany Lions were a tough snub from the NCAA Tournament last year, but they turned that negative into a positive by winning the NIT. With Jamelle Cornley and Stanley Pringle gone, Talor Battle is the one dependable offensive option left, and he has a decent shot to lead the conference in scoring. No postseason.

Iowa (3-15; 45.0): The tragic death of Jake Kelly’s sister took away Frank Lickliter’s best player (Kelly transferred closer to home at Indiana State). The Hawkeyes’ second best player, Jeff Peterson, also left the program, leaving Lickliter with not nearly enough to compete in a league this good. No postseason.

Pac-10

California (13-5; 93.9): Any year in which UCLA is not considered the Pac-10 favorite is going to be considered a down year for the league, but that’s through no fault of Mike Montgomery’s Bears. We should note that the core of Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson was all recruited by Montgomery’s predecessor Ben Braun, but it was Mike who got them into the NCAAs last year and who should take them further this March. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Washington (13-5; 66.4): After two straight disappointing seasons, Lorenzo Romar parlayed a dynamic freshman and the stout play of Jon Brockman into a Pac-10 championship. Brockman and guard Justin Dentmon are gone, but with Isaiah Thomas and Quincy Pondexter, the Huskies have a nucleus to remain near the top of the league. NCAA No. 5 seed.

UCLA (12-6; 37.4): For the first time since 2005, Ben Howland’s team didn’t win the league or make the Final Four, and he’s lost four starters off of that team. This should be the year, though, when the freshman that made last year’s recruiting class so highly considered — excepting the departed Jrue Holiday, of course — start to make an impact. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Arizona State (10-8; 54.2): James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph are gone, and they will be impossible to replace. But led by Derek Glasser, Rihards Kuksiks and Ty Abbott (currently injured but back soon), Herb Sendek has enough to keep this team competitive, and we all know he can coach ‘em up. NIT.

Arizona (9-9; 45.7): Sean Miller’s first year at Arizona could be tricky, with Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill gone from last year’s dubious at-large selection. Nic Wise is back, and Miller’s brought in a nice recruiting class, which should keep the Wildcats’ heads above water in a weakened Pac-10, but that might not be enough to get them in the NCAAs. NIT.

Washington State (9-9; 42.0): Ken Bone is Tony Bennett’s replacement in Pullman, after the latter put WSU basketball on the map. Bone will field a team that lost four of its top six players from last year’s NIT club. Sophomore Klay Thompson, though, is a star in the making. NIT.

Oregon State (8-10; 89.8): No team made the transformation Craig Robinson’s team did from November to March. An 0-4 start that included losses to three bad teams could not have predicted a sweep of Cal and Stanford, a 7-11 record in conference and a win in a postseason tournament (not that the CBI is much of a title). The 18 wins tripled the number from the previous season, and 18 would be a good goal this season, especially considering the Beavers entered the CBI with just 13 victories. NIT.

Oregon (7-11; 87.5): A year after being a questionable at-large selection to the 2008 NCAA Tournament, Ernie Kent’s team started 0-14 in conference last season. The problems were manifold, mainly a disinterested or simply incompetent defense. Most of that squad is back, and hopefully the returning players brought some defense back with them. Look for Michael Dunigan to break out. No postseason.

Southern Cal (5-13; 39.1): Kevin O’Neill enters an ugly situation in Los Angeles after what will now be considered a very dark era under Tim Floyd. The basketball was good, but the rules infractions embarrassing. This year’s team wasn’t going to bring back much anyway — Dwight Lewis heads the list of returners. No postseason.

Stanford (4-14; 39.5): Stanford started 10-0 in Johnny Dawkins’ first season, but the Cardinal struggled in conference play, going 6-12 thanks to a sieve-like defense. Much of that team has now departed, leaving Landry Fields, Josh Owens and a bunch of question marks. No postseason.

SEC

East

Tennessee (12-4; 100.0): The overwhelming choice to win the East is Kentucky, but here’s a vote for continuity and experience. With five seniors and one of the deepest benches in basketball, Bruce Pearl’s team may be better than the one that earned a No. 2 seed in 2008, though it would be hard-pressed to surpass that seed. The key will be getting the defense to get back to forcing turnovers or to excel in other areas. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Kentucky (11-5; 60.3): With Patrick Patterson and John Wall, there’s not a better 1-2 punch in the SEC, and the athleticism of this team is off the charts. If UK does indeed go 11-5 and get a No. 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, no top seed will want to see the Cats in its bracket. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Vanderbilt (9-7; 91.8): A winning record in the SEC East should be more than good enough to earn an NCAA bid this season, and the Commodores are prepared to do that. Jeffrey Taylor and A.J. Ogilvy are yet another terrific 1-2 punch to go with Wall-Patterson and Tyler Smith-Wayne Chism at Tennessee. With the arrival of John Jackson to go with Jermaine Beal and Brad Tinsley in the backcourt, Kevin Stallings has to be excited about the possibilities. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Florida (9-7; 62.6): With the additions of Kenny Boynton for offense and Georgetown transfer Vernon Macklin for defense and three starters returning, the Gators definitely have enough to be competitive. It seems unlikely, though, that Boynton will be able to replace all that Nick Calathes did or that Macklin can single-handedly make the defense passable. There will have to be improvements and extra contributions from other parts of the roster — I’m looking at you, Chandler Parsons — if Florida is to end its two-year NCAA Tournament drought. NCAA No. 10 seed.

South Carolina (8-8; 77.9): Devan Downey’s decision to return to Columbia means that the Gamecocks have a real shot to compete for an NCAA berth. The 5-foot-9 point guard will mean more to his team than any other SEC player because of what he can do on offense and defense and how much of the load he carries. There is experience and depth around him, which could get South Carolina that extra one or two wins it needed last year to play in the Big Dance. NCAA No. 12 seed.

Georgia (1-15; 61.8): Maybe I’m selling Mark Fox short in his first season, but that record speaks as much to the difficulty of the division as it does to Georgia’s roster. He’ll need more than just Howard Thompkins to compete in the SEC this year, and I’m not sure Fox has much more. No postseason.

West

Mississippi State (11-5; 97.3): Rick Stansbury returns every key contributor from the team that won its last six games to take the SEC Tournament and steal an NCAA bid. It also adds Renardo Sidney and John Riek, though the latter is probably more of a project. With Jarvis Varnado and Sidney in the paint, it’s hard to imagine opponents relishing the idea of going inside. NCAA No. 4 seed.

Mississippi (9-7; 68.6): While David Huertas did decide to go pro early, that 68.6 percent figure is a bit misleading, because Chris Warren missed most of the season with a knee injury suffered in December. The 5-10 point guard is simply one of the best guards in the country, able to handle a heavy offensive load and pester opponents on defense. If he is 100 percent, then Andy Kennedy can combine Warren with the SEC’s best freshman from a season ago, Terrico White, to form an awesome backcourt. Up front, there’s Murphy Holloway, who is efficient and can dominate the offensive glass. This was a difficult NCAA Tournament omission. NIT.

Alabama (7-9; 63.2): Despite Alonzo Gee’s graduation, there’s certainly enough talent in Tuscaloosa to make Anthony Grant’s first season a success. JaMychal Green was terrific as a freshman and should be one of the dominant offensive rebounders in college basketball this year. Mikhail Torrance was also a bright spot in a postseason-less season. The offense struggled, however, thanks in large part to Senario Hillman using too many possessions inefficiently. If Grant can pass some of Hillman’s possessions to Green and Torrance, and perhaps grab the occasional defensive rebound, the Tide should be in the mix. NIT.

Auburn (7-9; 59.2): Auburn’s lack of depth and size should prevent a second straight 20-win season, but the backcourt is good enough to keep Jeff Lebo’s team competitive, especially if they can continue to force turnovers and protect the ball like they did last season. No postseason.

Arkansas (6-10; 84.1): John Pelphrey’s freshman class was a hit last season, but, after knocking off Texas and Oklahoma before the start of conference play, the wins dried up against SEC opponents. It was nice of Courtney Fortson to take such a big load as a freshman, but he’ll need to cut down on turnovers (doable) and be more efficient with his shooting (we’ll see) for Arkansas’ offense to be good enough of NCAA consideration. We’ll also see if Arkansas’ defense can do a better job of field-goal defense. Only six of the 73 major-conference teams was worse in that area last year. No postseason.

LSU (6-10; 41.7): Without any recruits likely to make an immediate impact, it’s hard to see why this team was picked fourth by the media. The Tigers will desperately miss Marcus Thornton’s ability to take and make so many shots — big and small — and Chris Johnson’s defensive presence in the paint. If LSU does indeed finish here, it will mark the fourth time in five years the Tigers have placed either first or last in the SEC West. No postseason.

Mid-Majors

With mid-major stalwarts Xavier and Memphis changing coaches and losing key players and Gonzaga turning over much of its roster, the little guy does not have a standard bearer this winter. Butler might be that team, but watch out for Brigham Young out of the Mountain West. Either way, it seems more likely than not that next March will mark the second straight NCAA Tournament that there will be no mid-major teams in the Elite Eight.

Butler (Horizon; 100.0), No. 4 seed.
Brigham Young (Mountain West; 78.0), No. 5 seed.
Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley; 92.4), No. 7 seed.
Siena (MAAC; 78.9), No. 8 seed.
Tulsa (Conference USA; 80.2), No. 9 seed.
Dayton (Atlantic 10; 85.7), No. 9 seed.
Xavier (Atlantic 10; 51.1), No. 10 seed.
Memphis (Conference USA; 30.7), No. 11 seed.
Gonzaga (West Coast; 31.0), No. 11 seed.
Creighton (Missouri Valley; 71.4), No. 12 seed.
Niagara (MAAC; 84.0), No. 12 seed.
Utah State (WAC; 72.3), No. 12 seed.

* major-conference average for possessions returning is 65.0 percent.

Red Storm overcomes drought, stuns Hoyas: Georgetown may have escaped Villanova with a win on Saturday, but no one who watched that game would have accused the Hoyas of playing well. Still, a win is a win, and with St. John’s and DePaul upcoming, the Hoyas didn’t figure to need their best performances to get to 8-10 in conference. But St. John’s had been playing better ball of late, and the Red Storm would have nothing to lose, and SJU didn’t lose, defeating Georgetown, 59-56 in overtime.

St. John’s played Georgetown tight for a half and managed to trail by just one at the break despite at least 12 first-half turnovers. Then, the Red Storm came out and missed its first 14 second-half field-goal attempts. Jason Clark’s 3-pointer put Georgetown up 45-30 with 10:43 to play causing announcer Don Criqui to say, “That might be the dagger,” and it did indeed appear that another romp was at hand. SJU hadn’t stayed within 10 points of Georgetown in five straight meetings since the last time the Red Storm won a matchup in February 2005.

But St. John’s hit some free throws, and Paris Horne finally made the Red Storm’s first field goal of the half at the 6:50 mark. The Red Storm missed its first 14 attempts from the field, but SJU was down by just 10 at that point.

Down the stretch, Norm Roberts mixed up his defenses, often employing a 1-3-1 zone to frustrate the Hoyas. On offense, Rob Thomas hit several big shots and free throws down the stretch to force overtime. His two free throws with two seconds left tied the game and forced overtime. Thomas entered the game as just a 54-percent free-throw shooter but hit all six attempts on Tuesday.

In overtime, St. John’s overcame a dubious intentional foul call on a Malik Boothe hack of Greg Monroe to gain the lead on key shots by Horne (16 points) and D.J. Kennedy. Justin Burrell’s rebound and slam with just seconds left put St. John’s up three, and DaJuan Summers’ long three at the buzzer wasn’t close.

As stunning as Notre Dame’s fall from the top-10 to out of the NCAAs is, Georgetown’s has been even swifter. The Hoyas, unlike the Irish, actually looked top-10 good after handing UConn its first loss of the season on a Dec. 29 demolition in Hartford.

But Georgetown lost seven of eight from mid-January to mid-February, including a five-point loss at Seton Hall and a sweep by Cincinnati. While the performance in Philadelphia on Saturday rightfully got Georgetown back in the NCAA Tournament discussion, the result was a mirage. The Hoyas continued to turn the ball over at an alarming rate and are helpless on the defensive glass. It took criminally sloppy play by Scottie Reynolds and the Wildcats down the stretch for the Hoyas to escape with the win.

On Tuesday, it was more of the same. Georgetown forced 19 turnovers, but most of those were in the game’s first 30 minutes. Once St. John’s started valuing the ball, Georgetown’s defense became much less effective, even against the relatively punchless Red Storm. St. John’s had 15 offensive rebounds, grabbing 43 percent of its misses to offset the poor shooting (40 percent eFG).

On the other end of the floor, the Hoyas were even more inept on their own glass, getting just 18 percent of their misses. Forwards Monroe and Summers combined to play 60 minutes and grab just one offensive board. The Hoyas also missed seven free throws in 16 attempts, a total that is especially painful in a game decided in overtime. Georgetown scored just six points from the moment of Clark’s big three-pointer until the end of regulation.

Just like Notre Dame, many in the national media found plenty of reason to overlook Georgetown’s obvious weaknesses, but the Hoyas continually played to the level of its opposition and ended up on the receiving end of four upset losses in conference.

The fourth of those losses probably eliminated Georgetown from serious discussion for an at-large berth. I suppose a win over DePaul and a run to the Big East Tournament final would gain the Hoyas significant consideration, but even that may not be enough. Moreover, anyone who has watched Georgetown play since the Jan. 17 loss at Duke would consider a deep Big East Tournament run to be wish-casting — if Summers can hit his jumpers and Monroe can hit the glass and Chris Wright can create off the dribble and the Hoyas can hang in on the defensive glass and continue to force a lot of turnovers… Wishes, horses.

Jones plays like Wilkins in upset of Bearcats: In Tampa, Dominique Jones showed why he makes South Florida dangerous in USF’s 70-59 win over Cincinnati on Tuesday. He displayed excessive offensive efficiency in a 30-point effort. Jones’ eFG was 78.1, including 5-of-6 on threes. Jones also led the Bulls in rebounds (8), free-throws made (5) and taken (8) and assists (5). The Lake Wales, Fla., product is one the best-kept secrets in the Big East, as the sophomore is a dynamic scorer and terrific all-around performer for the woeful Bulls

USF’s ability to knock down shots was the reason why the Bulls won this game. Stan Heath’s team shot 56.1 percent eFG as a team, with folks like Justin Leemow chipping in with three treys, and forwards Gus Gilchrist (13 points on 5-of-10 shooting) and Alex Rivas (10 on 3-of-4) providing the efficiency USF needed to score 1.22 points per possessions. That is the most efficient the Bulls’ offense has been since an 80-58 win at an awful DePaul team on Jan. 20.

The defensive breakdowns couldn’t have come at a worse time for Mick Cronin’s team. At 8-8 in conference entering Tuesday’s game, UC was squarely on the bubble but had games at USF and at home against Seton Hall to try to boost the record. Instead, his team’s defense was torched for the fourth time in five games, all losses. At least the other three came against Pitt, Louisville and Syracuse. This defensive performance was against the league’s 14th-rated offense.

Cincinnati now faces a scenario where a win over Seton Hall and a run to the Big East quarters likely won’t be enough to get a bid. In a year of resurgence in the Queen City, the loss to USF is a bitter pill to swallow.

Elsewhere on the bubble: Maryland had a six-point, second-half lead at home against Wake Forest but failed to hold on a hotly contested, 65-63 defeat. A win would have put Maryland on the precipice of clinching a bid, but now the Terps will need a win at Virginia over the weekend and a first-round ACC Tournament win, likely against North Carolina State.

Oklahoma State overcame several Kansas State runs to all but knock the Wildcats out of at-large consideration. At the same time, OSU tightened up its case with a ninth Big 12 win. A win at Oklahoma this weekend or a first-round Big 12 Tournament win (the latter being more likely) should seal a bid for Travis Ford in his first season in Stillwater. The Wildcats now have to defeat Colorado on Saturday and win at least two — perhaps three — in the Big 12 Tournament to have a strong case. K-State’s RPI remains a huge hurdle. Losses to Iowa and Oregon are big reasons why it’s rightfully poor.

In Iowa City, Ohio State barely averted being Iowa’s latest victim. Jermain Davis had a layup blocked and then saw his potential game-winning 3-pointer rim out in the final seconds, as the Buckeyes held on for a 65-63 win. Evan Turner missed a late free throw on the front end of a 1-and-1 that enabled Iowa to attempt the potential winner. The miss was one of the few things Turner did wrong all night, as he scored 22 points on 10-of-17 shooting with nine assists and five rebounds. OSU can sew up a bid with a home win over Northwestern on Sunday.

In the Mountain West, New Mexico moved into a tie for the conference lead with a 77-71 win over Utah. The Lobos’ Tony Danridge had his eighth-straight double-figure scoring performance with a season-high 29 points, including 13 free throws. Utah shot lights out (66.7 eFG) from the field but couldn’t overcome 18 turnovers. The win was a must-have for Steve Alford’s team, which had several puzzling losses in pre-conference play — UTEP at home by 13, Texas Tech by 12, UCF at home, Drake and VCU on a neutral court. But, with teams falling all around them, NMU will likely be among the last eight out in the next Bracket Junkie. The Lobos finish the conference season with a game at Wyoming and will likely need that plus a couple more in the Mountain West Tournament to get an at-large bid.