Lazar Hayward is Big East Player of the Year, for now

The Big East Player of the Year race is one of the most interesting I can remember. I decided to put a more analytical spin to the race, and you can find my conclusions herein.

 

After crunching some numbers to determine which players have had the biggest impact on their teams, I narrowed down my list to eight players whom I think deserve serious consideration. Here are some of the interesting players I eliminated when paring the list to eight: Jamine Peterson (Providence), Samardo Samuels (Louisville), Jimmy Butler (Marquette), Corey Fisher (Villanova), Tim Abromaitis (Notre Dame), Jerome Dyson (Connecticut), D.J. Kennedy (St. John’s), Brad Wanamaker (Pittsburgh), and there were others.

 

I used full-season data for my evaluations, although I would like to put together some conference-only data once the season is over. Here are my eight finalists in tabular form: Read More »


Bracket Junkie: An unholy mess

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.

 

It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.

 

Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference. Read More »


Overlooked Hall has NCAAs within sights

A 2-6 stretch from mid-December to mid-January took Seton Hall off many NCAA Tournament radars, but the Pirates are proving that they are good enough to compete for a berth. With two straight wins, SHU is back to 3-4 in conference, and the schedule lightens up — a little — from here on out. In my preseason projections, I picked Seton Hall to make the NCAA Tournament, and there’s no reason to back off that now, even if it might be as the eighth or ninth Big East team in the field.

 

Right now, the Pirates are just on the outside looking in — fifth out based on my at-large prediction model, but here are some reasons why Seton Hall is good enough to hear its name called on March 14.

 

Depth: Coach Bobby Gonzalez always had kids who could play and play hard, he just never had enough of them. This season, he has 10 guys whom he’s comfortable playing at various times, and a solid eight-man rotation that could change depending on the opponent. The addition of three transfers — Herb Pope, Jeff Robinson and Keon Lawrence — and two freshmen — Jamel Jackson and Ferrakohn Hall — has allowed Gonzalez to keep his best players healthy and rested. That has helped Seton Hall down the stretch of games and should help down the stretch of this season. Read More »


UMass, USF look for opening success in C-USA arenas

The season’s first weekend of games gives us an underwhelming slate, but there are still a few games you may want to keep your eye on, even if that just means reloading the online box score a few times. I’ll be giving you a couple of games of note for each night this weekend, starting with Friday.

 

Massachusetts at Central Florida (7 p.m. ET): A pair of middling mid-majors go at it in Orlando on Friday night. For UMass, it’s finally time to put a terrible 2008-09 season in the rearview mirror. Last winter was nothing short of a disaster for a Minuteman team coming off of a 25-win season and returning an all-conference backcourt. What UMass did not return, though, was its coach, Travis Ford, who left for Oklahoma State. Folks in Amherst expected Ford to take UMass back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1998, but instead, he was helping those in Stillwater end a four-year drought. Derek Kellogg came in with an entirely new system, and the Minuteman never quite made the adjustment. A schizophrenic team, UMass started 1-6, later defeated Kansas, Dayton, Temple and Rhode Island, but still finished just 12-18. Read More »


Predicting many future events in one large analysis

Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:

 

ACC
Big 12
Big East
Big Ten
Pac-10
SEC
Mid-Majors

 

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

 

ACC

 

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »


Bubble Impact: Cincy, Georgetown suffer crippling road losses

In a league that has been criticized all season for having a soft underbelly, two Big East bubble teams went into the belly of the beast and didn’t live to tell about it. Cincinnati and Georgetown both blew second-half leads to lose to bottom-four Big East teams on Tuesday, and both now stare at very long roads to an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament.

 

Red Storm overcomes drought, stuns Hoyas: Georgetown may have escaped Villanova with a win on Saturday, but no one who watched that game would have accused the Hoyas of playing well. Still, a win is a win, and with St. John’s and DePaul upcoming, the Hoyas didn’t figure to need their best performances to get to 8-10 in conference. But St. John’s had been playing better ball of late, and the Red Storm would have nothing to lose, and SJU didn’t lose, defeating Georgetown, 59-56 in overtime. Read More »