• ACC
• Big 12
• Big East
• Big Ten
• Pac-10
• SEC
• Mid-Majors

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

ACC

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed.

North Carolina (10-6; 28.7): The preseason rankings of this UNC team do seem a bit lofty considering the lack of experience in Chapel Hill, but the talent is certainly there. Roy Williams can throw Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, Tyler Zeller and freshman John Henson into a potentially lethal frontcourt. If the guard play is good enough to run UNC’s up-and-down attack, this team could be ready to win big soon. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Maryland (10-6; 86.9): The Terrapins have been off the national radar for a few years, but Gary Williams has a team good enough to matter again. Led by Greivis Vasquez, the backcourt is terrific, but the lack of size in the frontcourt should keep Maryland from being an elite team. NCAA No. 5 seed.

Clemson (10-6; 57.2): The Tigers have become the college basketball version of Ohio State. There’s not a lot of respect for Oliver Purnell’s team after another fast start followed by a long, slow fade, but the Tigers have brought in a very good recruiting class to surround Trevor Booker and Demontez Stitt. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Georgia Tech (9-7; 69.8): With Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors, there aren’t a lot of frontcourts excited about matching up with the Yellow Jackets. But the recent underachieving seasons will haunt Paul Hewitt unless he can turn this team into a top-20 club. The talent is definitely there. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Florida State (8-8; 64.0): Toney Douglas may have been the most valuable player in the ACC last season, and he’s gone, but Leonard Hamilton has brought in a stud recruit — Michael Snaer — and returns most of the rest of the team that achieved a No. 5 seed in last year’s tournament. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Wake Forest (8-8; 56.9): The Deacons’ two best players are gone, but a couple of great recruiting classes made sure that plenty of talent remains. This needs to be the year that Al-Farouq Aminu emerges as a force for WF to place this high. NCAA No. 9 seed.

Boston College (7-9; 77.1): Everyone’s back but Tyrese Rice, and some consider that departure a blessing, but the Eagles will be hard-pressed to replace everything he did on offense. And that’s important, considering how offense-dependent Al Skinner’s teams tend to be. If they can spread Rice’s load around efficiently, the Eagles will be in position to make another NCAA Tournament. NIT.

Virginia Tech (7-9; 66.9): Seth Greenberg has had teams good enough to make the NCAAs the last two seasons and come up just short. This team brings back three starters and is certainly good enough to get in the field, but there is just so much competition in the league. Much like last season with FSU, who entered it with lowered expectations after a couple of recent near misses, VaTech may surprise and nab a bid this season. NIT.

Miami (6-10; 48.3): Last year was the year for Frank Haith to get the Hurricanes into the Sweet 16, but things fell apart in conference play. There’s still enough returning to be competitive but more than enough holes to think the NCAA Tournament isn’t in the near future. NIT.

Virginia (6-10; 90.6): The Cavs will be better this season, but there doesn’t appear to be enough depth in the talent base to support Sylvan Landesburg and make UVa truly competitive. An NIT bid would be a terrific accomplishment, but I think the Cavaliers end up just short. No postseason.

North Carolina State (3-13; 47.1): The bar is so low for Sidney that even a 10th- or 11th-place finish would be a pleasant surprise. The Wolfpack does have a nice recruiting class coming in, but the best of the bunch — Lorenzo Brown — will be spending the year in prep school. No postseason.

Big 12

Kansas (14-2; 100.0): There aren’t any questions left about whether Bill Self can win big, and there aren’t many questions about the talent in Lawrence. Much like UNC a year ago, this team will be judged by what it does in March, even if a 30-win season precedes the NCAAs. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Texas (12-4; 75.1): After underachieving last season, Rick Barnes brings back about as stacked a team as you’ll see in college basketball. With Dexter Pittman and Damion James in the frontcourt and Avery Bradley in the backcourt, this team will be a handful on both ends of the floor. Oh, and there are 11 other players good enough to see ample run. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Texas A&M (10-6; 72.1): The Big 12’s consistent overachievers, Mark Turgeon’s Aggies have enough experience to make them an annoyance for the league’s best teams, especially if they’re able to weather the loss of Chinemelu Elonu to the NBA. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Kansas State (10-6; 66.4): The folks in Manhattan have now been witnesses to three straight 20-win seasons, and this team may be the best of the bunch. With Denis Clemente running the show and plenty of talent around him, Frank Martin should get the Wildcats back to the NCAAs for the second time in three seasons. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Oklahoma (9-7; 39.3): This is Willie Warren’s show now, and the point guard is good enough to get this team into the NCAA Tournament with minimal help. The Sooners will struggle on the glass, but Jeff Capel should have them back in the NCAAs again nevertheless. NCAA No. 10 seed.

Oklahoma State (8-8; 54.3): Travis Ford lost four players from last year’s rotation, but James Anderson returns along with a terrific set of newcomers. It took OSU time to get used to Ford’s system, but a year in, the Cowboys should avoid last year’s slow start even with less experience. NCAA No. 11 seed.

Missouri (8-8; 55.6): The losses of Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll are massive, but Missouri is built on depth, and the Tigers should have enough to hang around NCAA consideration this winter. It will be up to J.T. Tiller and Zaire Taylor to handle a much larger load on offense. NIT.

Baylor (6-10; 44.2): The Bears were expected to compete for the Sweet 16 last season but ended up in the NIT final. This year, Scott Drew has to replace a lot of talent and experience with three starters gone. LaceDarius Dunn’s emergence as a star is Step No. 1 toward the Bears competing for an NCAA bid. NIT.

Iowa State (6-10; 77.1): Greg McDermott expects to have his best team in Ames, but, considering he hasn’t won more than six league games in any of his first three seasons, “best” doesn’t really mean a lot. Without someone to help out Craig Brackins, the Cyclones’ offense will continue to come up short. NIT.

Texas Tech (4-12; 71.2): Pat Knight implemented a new run-and-gun system, but a 3-13 record showed that it paid few dividends. Knight has some nice pieces, including Mike Singletary, coming back, but his team will need to be better than “nice” to compete with that Big 12 South schedule. No postseason.

Colorado (4-12; 89.7): This would appear to be a good opportunity for Jeff Bzdelik to set a tenure-high in conference wins. The Buffaloes have won just four Big 12 games in Bzdelik’s first two years, and I predict they will match that this season. We’ll see whether Year 3 has talent ready to complement Cory Higgins. No postseason.

Nebraska (4-12; 39.1): Few coaches lost as much as Doc Sadler did in Lincoln, and it’ll be hard to put together a competitive roster with a lack of impact recruits. Finishing in the league’s top 10 would be a noteworthy accomplishment for this group this winter. No postseason.

Big East

West Virginia (14-4; 81.8): The difference between West Virginia ending this season in a second-round flameout instead of in the Final Four is all in the point guard. Darryl Bryant played well for much of last season but showed he was unable to run a consistent offense in several big spots. If either he or Joe Mazzulla can get this offense flowing, there is enough talent for the ‘Neers to be scary good. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Villanova (13-5; 63.6): The Wildcats are the popular choice to win the Big East, and they may in fact do that, but they’ll need to first replace what Dwayne Anderson and Dante Cunningham took with them from last year’s team. Without those two to hit the glass, a lot of pressure falls on Mouphtaou Yarou, the 6-foot-9 freshman. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Georgetown (12-6; 68.0): I’m willing to chalk up the last two months of last season as merely an aberration for John Thompson III’s Hoyas. With a terrific nucleus returning — Greg Monroe, Austin Freeman, Chris Wright — and enough pieces around those three, the Hoyas are good enough to challenge for the Big East. NCAA No. 4 seed.

Connecticut (12-6; 37.9): Despite heavy losses, we should expect Jim Calhoun’s Huskies to be good immediately this winter. Kemba Walker and Jerome Dyson form a dynamic backcourt, while Stanley Robinson and some tantalizing young frontcourt talents will do the dirty work inside. No. 4 seed.

Louisville (11-7; 52.0): The Cardinals need Samardo Samuels to dominate in the post if they are to be an efficient offensive team. With so much experience in the backcourt and athleticism in the frontcourt, the defense should be typically strong. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Seton Hall (11-7; 82.9): Every year, Seton Hall exceeds its preseason projection, and this year should be no different. Bobby Gonzalez’s Pirates are picked 10th in the league despite losing only one key player — Paul Gause — and adding three impact transfers, notably Herb Pope and Keon Lawrence. It’s as if his fellow coaches are begging Gonzo to overachieve. NCAA No. 10 seed.

Cincinnati (10-8; 78.8): With Lance Stephenson now cleared to play, everything is in line for Cincinnati’s first NCAA Tournament berth as a member of the Big East. It’s easy to forget that point guard Cashmere Wright entered last preseason as one of the league’s top newcomers before tearing his knee and missing the season. He’s back now, too, along with Deonta Vaughn and enough good players that UC has few excuses not to make the Dance. NCAA No. 11 seed.

Pittsburgh (9-9; 35.2): It’s very hard to pick the Panthers to not make the field after being one of the consistently excellent teams in college basketball for nearly a decade. On the other hand, talent is talent, and while there are some good players here, it is a tall task to replace the three seniors plus DeJuan Blair, who all departed after last season. I nervously expect Jamie Dixon to make me look foolish. NIT.

Syracuse (9-9; 39.4): Like Pittsburgh, Syracuse also has a lot to replace. Jonny Flynn leaves the biggest hole, one that will be filled by someone who didn’t play for Syracuse last season — freshman Brandon Triche or Scoop Jardine, an injury red-shirt a year ago. The Orange frontcourt of Wesley Johnson, Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson is good enough to make SU an NCAA Tournament team if the point-guard situation sorts itself out. NIT.

Notre Dame (8-10; 55.5): With Luke Harangody back for a final season, the Irish find themselves on the edge of both preseason polls. The problem is that, with each passing year, Harangody has less and less talent around him. Tory Jackson, Ben Hansbrough and Jonathan Peoples make up a solid backcourt rotation, but what of Tyrone Nash in the frontcourt with Tim Abromaitis or maybe Carleton Scott? The loss of Purdue transfer Scott Martin was damaging, but this team didn’t do much for me even before that. NIT.

St. John’s (8-10; 96.4): If there ever was to be a year when Norm Roberts’ program was to make the leap, this is it. With a team full of experienced juniors and in a weakened league, this is the Red Storm’s chance to break into the top half of the league. The offense needs to be more efficient for that to happen. NIT.

Marquette (7-11; 33.6): The loss of Junior Cadougan to a season-ending ruptured Achilles really hurts a team that was already going to struggle to replace the best set of guards to ever form one class at Marquette. Lazar Hayward should put up all-league numbers, because 1) he’s really good, and 2) there aren’t any proven offensive options surrounding him. No postseason.

Providence (6-12; 34.5): The Friars enter the season with only three players who saw any action last season, and all are guards. That leaves large problems on the backboards, but at least the dynamic combination of Sharaud Curry and Marshon Brooks should excite the Friar faithful in Year 2 of the Keno Davis Era. No postseason.

South Florida (6-12; 70.1): Dominique Jones is very good, and Stan Heath has added former Ohio State point guard Anthony Crater as his backcourt mate. If Augustus Gilchrist can be the force many expect up front, the Bulls may have the start of something. No postseason.

Rutgers (5-13; 52.1): The Fred Hill tenure has never quite gotten off the ground despite the string of touted recruits that have landed in Piscataway. Mike Rosario and Greg Echenique will continue to carry the load for a team that has a very difficult time scoring. No postseason.

DePaul (4-14; 61.4): Jerry Wainwright couldn’t have gotten worse news for the short-term of his program than Dar Tucker’s departure, but at least the conference isn’t quite so strong, which makes back-to-back 0-18 seasons unlikely. No postseason.

Big Ten

Michigan State (13-5; 73.7): With a fully healthy Raymar Morgan, Michigan State will have that dynamic slasher that it lacked even in advancing to the national title game last season. That along with Kalin Lucas and a typically stout interior defense has Tom Izzo thinking about winning one additional game this season. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Purdue (13-5; 82.0): Perhaps I’m a fool for this Purdue team, because the Boilermakers were mild disappointments last season. If Matt Painter’s team doesn’t have the frontline talent necessary, a No. 1 seed will look silly in March, but I think a healthy Robbie Hummel plus JaJuan Johnson to go with the great man-to-man defense puts Purdue among the elite. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Ohio State (11-7; 87.8): Evan Turner is awesome — there isn’t much that he doesn’t do well, and there’s a good chance he’s the best player in the Big Ten. Ohio State will need to do a better job taking care of the ball and defending the three to finish this high. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Minnesota (10-8; 90.2): The Golden Gopher train ran out of steam with a 6-10 finish, but the two-year turnaround is still remarkable. Almost everyone is back from last year’s team, and Tubby Smith also adds two top-70 recruits. NCAA No. 5 seed.

Wisconsin (10-8; 79.6): Wisconsin just wins and wins and wins. After a six-game losing streak put last season in jeopardy, Bo Ryan’s team reeled off five straight wins, four by at least 10 points to sneak into the field. There, the Badgers, a No. 12 seed, knocked off No. 5 Florida State in overtime. Ryan does lose two-thirds of his frontcourt, but look for Keaton Nankivil to emerge as the next efficient low-post presence. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Michigan (9-9; 81.7): Like Tubby Smith, John Beilein needed just two years to take the Wolverines from also-rans to the NCAAs. Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims have become one of the league’s best 1-2 punches, and Beilein has surrounded them with good shooters and passers. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Illinois (9-9; 62.7): It was a good bounceback season for Bruce Weber but one that ended with a clank in the NCAA Tournament. Three key rotation players are gone, but Demetri McCamey and Mike Davis lead a solid group of returners to go with a strong recruiting class for a team that should be one of the league’s best defensively. NCAA No. 9 seed.

Northwestern (8-10; 78.7): This may be the Wildcats’ best shot yet to make the NCAAs, but they picked a tough year to crack the first division of the Big Ten. Kevin Coble is one of the best players in the league, and he gives Bill Carmody a go-to guy in an offensive style that doesn’t usually have one. If Carmody can develop a replacement for Craig Moore’s 3-point shooting, Northwestern could break the NCAA Tournament hex. NIT.

Indiana (7-11; 67.0): Tom Crean should have Indiana back to a level of competitiveness this year after last year’s dismal start. The Hoosiers add the best recruiting class in the Big Ten and transfer Jeremiah Rivers from Georgetown. Rivers will bring tough perimeter defense, but the offense, which was the biggest problem last year, will have to come from elsewhere. NIT.

Penn State (6-12; 56.1): The Nittany Lions were a tough snub from the NCAA Tournament last year, but they turned that negative into a positive by winning the NIT. With Jamelle Cornley and Stanley Pringle gone, Talor Battle is the one dependable offensive option left, and he has a decent shot to lead the conference in scoring. No postseason.

Iowa (3-15; 45.0): The tragic death of Jake Kelly’s sister took away Frank Lickliter’s best player (Kelly transferred closer to home at Indiana State). The Hawkeyes’ second best player, Jeff Peterson, also left the program, leaving Lickliter with not nearly enough to compete in a league this good. No postseason.

Pac-10

California (13-5; 93.9): Any year in which UCLA is not considered the Pac-10 favorite is going to be considered a down year for the league, but that’s through no fault of Mike Montgomery’s Bears. We should note that the core of Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson was all recruited by Montgomery’s predecessor Ben Braun, but it was Mike who got them into the NCAAs last year and who should take them further this March. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Washington (13-5; 66.4): After two straight disappointing seasons, Lorenzo Romar parlayed a dynamic freshman and the stout play of Jon Brockman into a Pac-10 championship. Brockman and guard Justin Dentmon are gone, but with Isaiah Thomas and Quincy Pondexter, the Huskies have a nucleus to remain near the top of the league. NCAA No. 5 seed.

UCLA (12-6; 37.4): For the first time since 2005, Ben Howland’s team didn’t win the league or make the Final Four, and he’s lost four starters off of that team. This should be the year, though, when the freshman that made last year’s recruiting class so highly considered — excepting the departed Jrue Holiday, of course — start to make an impact. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Arizona State (10-8; 54.2): James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph are gone, and they will be impossible to replace. But led by Derek Glasser, Rihards Kuksiks and Ty Abbott (currently injured but back soon), Herb Sendek has enough to keep this team competitive, and we all know he can coach ‘em up. NIT.

Arizona (9-9; 45.7): Sean Miller’s first year at Arizona could be tricky, with Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill gone from last year’s dubious at-large selection. Nic Wise is back, and Miller’s brought in a nice recruiting class, which should keep the Wildcats’ heads above water in a weakened Pac-10, but that might not be enough to get them in the NCAAs. NIT.

Washington State (9-9; 42.0): Ken Bone is Tony Bennett’s replacement in Pullman, after the latter put WSU basketball on the map. Bone will field a team that lost four of its top six players from last year’s NIT club. Sophomore Klay Thompson, though, is a star in the making. NIT.

Oregon State (8-10; 89.8): No team made the transformation Craig Robinson’s team did from November to March. An 0-4 start that included losses to three bad teams could not have predicted a sweep of Cal and Stanford, a 7-11 record in conference and a win in a postseason tournament (not that the CBI is much of a title). The 18 wins tripled the number from the previous season, and 18 would be a good goal this season, especially considering the Beavers entered the CBI with just 13 victories. NIT.

Oregon (7-11; 87.5): A year after being a questionable at-large selection to the 2008 NCAA Tournament, Ernie Kent’s team started 0-14 in conference last season. The problems were manifold, mainly a disinterested or simply incompetent defense. Most of that squad is back, and hopefully the returning players brought some defense back with them. Look for Michael Dunigan to break out. No postseason.

Southern Cal (5-13; 39.1): Kevin O’Neill enters an ugly situation in Los Angeles after what will now be considered a very dark era under Tim Floyd. The basketball was good, but the rules infractions embarrassing. This year’s team wasn’t going to bring back much anyway — Dwight Lewis heads the list of returners. No postseason.

Stanford (4-14; 39.5): Stanford started 10-0 in Johnny Dawkins’ first season, but the Cardinal struggled in conference play, going 6-12 thanks to a sieve-like defense. Much of that team has now departed, leaving Landry Fields, Josh Owens and a bunch of question marks. No postseason.

SEC

East

Tennessee (12-4; 100.0): The overwhelming choice to win the East is Kentucky, but here’s a vote for continuity and experience. With five seniors and one of the deepest benches in basketball, Bruce Pearl’s team may be better than the one that earned a No. 2 seed in 2008, though it would be hard-pressed to surpass that seed. The key will be getting the defense to get back to forcing turnovers or to excel in other areas. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Kentucky (11-5; 60.3): With Patrick Patterson and John Wall, there’s not a better 1-2 punch in the SEC, and the athleticism of this team is off the charts. If UK does indeed go 11-5 and get a No. 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, no top seed will want to see the Cats in its bracket. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Vanderbilt (9-7; 91.8): A winning record in the SEC East should be more than good enough to earn an NCAA bid this season, and the Commodores are prepared to do that. Jeffrey Taylor and A.J. Ogilvy are yet another terrific 1-2 punch to go with Wall-Patterson and Tyler Smith-Wayne Chism at Tennessee. With the arrival of John Jackson to go with Jermaine Beal and Brad Tinsley in the backcourt, Kevin Stallings has to be excited about the possibilities. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Florida (9-7; 62.6): With the additions of Kenny Boynton for offense and Georgetown transfer Vernon Macklin for defense and three starters returning, the Gators definitely have enough to be competitive. It seems unlikely, though, that Boynton will be able to replace all that Nick Calathes did or that Macklin can single-handedly make the defense passable. There will have to be improvements and extra contributions from other parts of the roster — I’m looking at you, Chandler Parsons — if Florida is to end its two-year NCAA Tournament drought. NCAA No. 10 seed.

South Carolina (8-8; 77.9): Devan Downey’s decision to return to Columbia means that the Gamecocks have a real shot to compete for an NCAA berth. The 5-foot-9 point guard will mean more to his team than any other SEC player because of what he can do on offense and defense and how much of the load he carries. There is experience and depth around him, which could get South Carolina that extra one or two wins it needed last year to play in the Big Dance. NCAA No. 12 seed.

Georgia (1-15; 61.8): Maybe I’m selling Mark Fox short in his first season, but that record speaks as much to the difficulty of the division as it does to Georgia’s roster. He’ll need more than just Howard Thompkins to compete in the SEC this year, and I’m not sure Fox has much more. No postseason.

West

Mississippi State (11-5; 97.3): Rick Stansbury returns every key contributor from the team that won its last six games to take the SEC Tournament and steal an NCAA bid. It also adds Renardo Sidney and John Riek, though the latter is probably more of a project. With Jarvis Varnado and Sidney in the paint, it’s hard to imagine opponents relishing the idea of going inside. NCAA No. 4 seed.

Mississippi (9-7; 68.6): While David Huertas did decide to go pro early, that 68.6 percent figure is a bit misleading, because Chris Warren missed most of the season with a knee injury suffered in December. The 5-10 point guard is simply one of the best guards in the country, able to handle a heavy offensive load and pester opponents on defense. If he is 100 percent, then Andy Kennedy can combine Warren with the SEC’s best freshman from a season ago, Terrico White, to form an awesome backcourt. Up front, there’s Murphy Holloway, who is efficient and can dominate the offensive glass. This was a difficult NCAA Tournament omission. NIT.

Alabama (7-9; 63.2): Despite Alonzo Gee’s graduation, there’s certainly enough talent in Tuscaloosa to make Anthony Grant’s first season a success. JaMychal Green was terrific as a freshman and should be one of the dominant offensive rebounders in college basketball this year. Mikhail Torrance was also a bright spot in a postseason-less season. The offense struggled, however, thanks in large part to Senario Hillman using too many possessions inefficiently. If Grant can pass some of Hillman’s possessions to Green and Torrance, and perhaps grab the occasional defensive rebound, the Tide should be in the mix. NIT.

Auburn (7-9; 59.2): Auburn’s lack of depth and size should prevent a second straight 20-win season, but the backcourt is good enough to keep Jeff Lebo’s team competitive, especially if they can continue to force turnovers and protect the ball like they did last season. No postseason.

Arkansas (6-10; 84.1): John Pelphrey’s freshman class was a hit last season, but, after knocking off Texas and Oklahoma before the start of conference play, the wins dried up against SEC opponents. It was nice of Courtney Fortson to take such a big load as a freshman, but he’ll need to cut down on turnovers (doable) and be more efficient with his shooting (we’ll see) for Arkansas’ offense to be good enough of NCAA consideration. We’ll also see if Arkansas’ defense can do a better job of field-goal defense. Only six of the 73 major-conference teams was worse in that area last year. No postseason.

LSU (6-10; 41.7): Without any recruits likely to make an immediate impact, it’s hard to see why this team was picked fourth by the media. The Tigers will desperately miss Marcus Thornton’s ability to take and make so many shots — big and small — and Chris Johnson’s defensive presence in the paint. If LSU does indeed finish here, it will mark the fourth time in five years the Tigers have placed either first or last in the SEC West. No postseason.

Mid-Majors

With mid-major stalwarts Xavier and Memphis changing coaches and losing key players and Gonzaga turning over much of its roster, the little guy does not have a standard bearer this winter. Butler might be that team, but watch out for Brigham Young out of the Mountain West. Either way, it seems more likely than not that next March will mark the second straight NCAA Tournament that there will be no mid-major teams in the Elite Eight.

Butler (Horizon; 100.0), No. 4 seed.
Brigham Young (Mountain West; 78.0), No. 5 seed.
Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley; 92.4), No. 7 seed.
Siena (MAAC; 78.9), No. 8 seed.
Tulsa (Conference USA; 80.2), No. 9 seed.
Dayton (Atlantic 10; 85.7), No. 9 seed.
Xavier (Atlantic 10; 51.1), No. 10 seed.
Memphis (Conference USA; 30.7), No. 11 seed.
Gonzaga (West Coast; 31.0), No. 11 seed.
Creighton (Missouri Valley; 71.4), No. 12 seed.
Niagara (MAAC; 84.0), No. 12 seed.
Utah State (WAC; 72.3), No. 12 seed.

* major-conference average for possessions returning is 65.0 percent.

I’m not big into brackets. People always ask me who my Final Four is and who I have going far and what upsets I picked and when I’m going to come out with my bracket. And I understand why — this is the point at which the casual or non-fan relates to college basketball.

But I find that, when I am really into my brackets, I start rooting for teams I don’t like.

“Hey, Brendon, why are you rooting for Ohio State to beat Xavier? Wouldn’t that be a great upset?”

“Oh, it would — it’s true, and I would normally prefer Xavier, but I have OSU in the national final in my bracket.”

Aaargh!

No longer. I will pick a bracket and not get too attached to it. I will continue to root for the teams I want to root for and not worry about whether my bracket is ruined — and not get annoyed when people ask me how bracket is doing, as if it’s a newborn baby or a 401K.

The other reason why bracket picks are frustrating is that one can make the wrong picks for the right reasons or the right picks for the wrong reasons. There really isn’t a lot of skill involved, and the winner of most pools is the guy who goes with mainly chalk and a few select upsets. Meh.

Change of scenary: The biggest problem with picking brackets is the Twilight Zone that some teams enter once in the NCAA Tournament. I can’t tell you how many times I followed a team throughout the season and thought I knew that team well, but then I watch them play in the NCAA Tourney and everything is off. It’s like a different team. Some teams don’t react well to the new venue or the new teams. It’s really a crapshoot.

At the Big East Tournament on Wednesday, outgoing Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese relayed a taste of what coaches are going through in the Tournament. Last march, he was in Washington, D.C., talking to West Virginia head coach Bob Huggins before the Mountaineers were to play Duke in a Second Round game. Huggins pointed to the sheet that listed the referees and said, “Who are these guys?” Tranghese responded, “They’re from the Pac-10.” Huggins just rolled his eyes and muttered.

The point is that the NCAA Tournament is unfamiliar. A coach might not know how a particular ref calls a game because he hasn’t seen that ref all season. Will he be lenient or strict with post contact? What about hand checks? Does he call a lot of charges or blocks? Not knowing these important pieces of information can put a team in early foul trouble and derail a well-founded strategy.

New refs, new opponents, new venues, new schedules, longer TV timeouts. Some teams adjust well, some teams don’t, but it’s hard to tell until it happens. That’s what makes it both so fun to watch and so maddening to predict. It’s for these reasons that my predictions appear at the bottom rather than the top of these previews. I would prefer you read all the reasoning yourself and make your own judgments before getting a look at my conclusions.

All that said, on to the Midwest Region, or as it may be better know, the Cardinals Invitational.

Why this is Louisville’s to lose: With the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament comes a choice draw. The Cardinals, mavens of the turnover, get the region with three of the four most turnover-prone top seeds:

Highest turnover rate among top-four seeds:

Louisville has the third best turnovers-forced rates of all top-four seeds behind Missouri and Duke. So, anyone looking for a matchup that might imperil the Cards’ run at a second Final Four in five seasons has to look really hard.

The first place one might have looked to find chinks in the red and black armor was shooting, but Louisville has been consistently hitting shots for more than a month now. The Cards have shot at least 50 percent eFG in every one of its last 10 games — all wins. Your best shot against Louisville is to pack it in and hope the Cards have one of their now rare bad outside shooting nights, but with Terrence Williams, Jerry Smith, Preston Knowles and Andre McGee each hitting at better than 36 percent, it would be hard to expect them all to go cold on the same night.

The contenders: The second place you might want to look to engender hopes that Louisville might not make the NCAA Tournament is to the bottom half of the bracket where three strong teams reside.

First, there is Michigan State, a team with a tantalizing combination of traits typical of Final Four teams. There’s the creative, scoring point guard — Kalin Lucas. There’s the dynamic slasher — Raymar Morgan. There’s the dominant rebounding, the championship coach, the deep bench. But something’s missing. For one, Morgan has been injured, sick and up and down when on the court. But even beyond Morgan, the Spartans have been terribly inconsistent. They’ve lost blowouts to Ohio State, Purdue, Maryland and North Carolina and had home losses to Penn State and Northwestern. It’s hard to imagine a team this inconsistent playing well enough to win four straight games in the NCAA Tournament, but there may not be a team other than North Carolina with a higher ceiling.

Second, take a look at Kansas. All Bill Self lost was seven of his eight top players from last year’s national champions, and yet the Jayhawks still won the Big 12 regular-season title with a 14-2 record. Of course, Self wasn’t replacing those departed players with chumps. He was returning one of the best point guards in the nation in Sherron Collins. He also has Cole Aldrich, a sophomore who have been a double-double man last season playing almost anywhere else. Self joined those two with newcomers like JuCo Mario Little and freshmen Marcus Morris and Tyshawn Taylor, who each bring a bit of everything to a well-balanced Jayhawks squad. If there is one thing holding Kansas back, it’s the Jayhawks’ inability to come out focused from the opening tip. A lot of that is probably the inexperience, which means KU will have to grow up quickly this week.

Third, we have Louisville’s conference foe West Virginia. The Mountaineers’ 23-11 belies a team that is strong defensively and dominant on the offensive glass. West Virginia put everything together in a Big East Tournament quarterfinal victory over Pittsburgh last week that showed the Mountaineers’ ability to force turnovers and hit the glass against even the most able of competition. Devin Ebanks’ emergence down the stretch gives West Virginia a real third weapon after Da’Sean Butler and Alex Ruoff. This team can play very long, making it very hard to score on. The Mountaineers’ primary weakness is the lack of a dependable point guard. Darryl Bryant is a decent shooter but not much of a creator or defender. WVU’s best five-man unit during the Big East Tournament saw the Mountaineers go big with Ruoff and Butler in the backcourt and Bryant on the bench. I’m not sure how that would work against teams with Kalin Lucas or Sherron Collins at the point or with the pressure defense of Louisville. The Cards have already beaten WVU twice this year.

Seedy indeed: Boston College plays Southern Cal as the nominally higher seed in Minneapolis on Friday. There is no team on the top 10 seed lines that is worse defensively than the Eagles, and, though we always hear about how difficult BC’s flex offense is to defend — and it is — a defensive coach like Tim Floyd shouldn’t have any trouble holding it in check. That, along with Taj Gibson’s rebounding and defense and DeMar DeRozen’s dynamism, should be enough to get USC past BC and potentially to the Sweet 16 should the Trojans catch the Spartans on a bad night worth of The 300.

Because you were wondering, here’s a look at the four worst defensive teams in the Tournament among those seeded No. 12 or better. Two of them reside in the Midwest (rating is based on Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency).

Another big year four 12’s and 13’s? With the exception of the West Region, the No. 4 and 5 seeds in the other three regions — by and large — leave much to be desired, and that is true in the Midwest. Utah is the weakest No. 5 seed, which could help justify the Selection Committee’s inclusion of Arizona, since the Wildcats are capable of pulling the upset. No. 4 seed Wake Forest played its best basketball in January. The Deacons remain explosive if inconsistent, and they run into a Cleveland State team that can exploit the Deacons’ inability to protect the basketball. On the other hand, Wake Forest is one of the tallest teams in the nation playing the 12th shortest team in the field, which should be to the Deacons’ advantage the Deacons. To catch these potential upset matchups, check out the Miami regional on Friday night.

Buckeyes at home in Dayton: While Dayton is just a short trip from Louisville, it’s right in the heart of Buckeye country, probably the only unfair aspect of Louisville’s bracketing. Should OSU get past a solid Siena team — and I think the Bucks will be able to advance passed a Siena team that is good at both forcing turnovers and not fouling — there will be plenty of “O-H, I-O” to go around on Friday. As for the Buckeyes themselves, Thad Matta’s team was on the bubble until it won its last two games of the Big Ten season and then its first two of the Big Ten Tournament to get to the final against Purdue. Those last two wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State were the most impressive results OSU had had all conference season (the earlier win over Purdue was at home and in overtime and with Robbie Hummel on the sideline). Ohio State can shoot, and that will keep it in most games, but it too turns it over a ton, something that will be exploited by Louisville. But if Evan Turner, Jon Diebler and William Buford can hit enough shots, the turnovers might not matter.

Dayton not at home in Tourney: I’m not saying that Dayton doesn’t deserve to be in the field, but there may be no team seeded 1-12 that is playing worse basketball than the Flyers right now. Dayton has lost four of seven, some of the tough luck variety — an overtime loss to URI — some of the head-scratching variety — an 11-point Atlantic-10 Tournament loss to Duquesne. The Flyers were playing like a top-25 team early in February, but something has gone terribly wrong. For one, high-volume bench scorer Rob Lowery is injured and out for the year. For another, the defense has been far less consistent. In their first eight conference games, the Flyers allowed more than 1.01 points per possession exactly once. In their last 10 games, that’s happened seven times. Without a regression to January form, it will be one-and-done for Dayton in Minneapolis.

How it goes down: One of the best matchups of the first weekend could take place on Sunday in Minneapolis should West Virginia play Kansas. This will be a meeting of one of the nation’s best offensive rebounding teams (WVU) against one of its best defensive rebounding teams (KU). If the Mountaineers are able to win that glass and force some turnovers, they should win. If that happens, I could definitely see WVU getting past Michigan State and into an all-Big East Elite Eight. If Kansas gets to the Sweet 16, MSU, who has already beaten Kansas handily this season, would be the pick to advance. Either way, it’s hard to see Louisville not getting to the Elite Eight and than to the Final Four once there. Of course, being sent home is never more than a couple tough calls or a bad shooting night away.

The answer to the first question came swiftly and harshly — no, sir. West Virginia only shot 35 percent (43.8 eFG) in the first half, and yet the Mountaineers still scored 36 points on 31 first-half possessions because the Irish had no way to get the ball back. West Virginia regained almost as many of its misses (13) as Notre Dame did (14). We knew the Irish wouldn’t be able to turn West Virginia over. Whether in a passive zone permissive man-to-man, Notre Dame forced just two turnovers and had no points off of WVU giveaways.

“At the end of the day, the offensive board just killed us, and it hurt us in Morgantown,” said Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey of the 20 offensive rebounds his team permitted in a game where the Irish were out-rebounded 52-32. “We couldn’t keep them off the offensive board. They only shoot some 30 percent [actually 36 percent] and you score 74 points, but the backboard has been an issue with us at different times.”

The first half really meant the game in West Virginia’s 74-62 win over Notre Dame, and the dominance on the defensive end of the floor was even greater than on offense. The Irish, after all, are not unaccustomed to giving up well more than a point per possession. So WVU’s 1.16 PPP performance wasn’t far out of line. On offense, though, the Irish were futile, unable to hit shots and unable to get the ball back when they missed.

West Virginia has the length and athleticism to bother Notre Dame’s shooters. Bob Huggins can put athletic freaks Ebanks, Wellington Smith and Kevin Jones on the undersized Luke Harangody inside, and players like Da’Sean Butler and Alex Ruoff have the length to frustrate ND’s shooters Ryan Ayers and Kyle McAlarney. That added up to a terrible first-half shooting performance — 25.9 percent (31.4 eFG). Notre Dame was also unable to get back any of those wayward chucks, corralling just two of the misses and capitalizing on neither second chance.

“In the first half, it was hard, hard to get entries with their length,” said Brey. “[It] bothers you on the backboard, and it bothers you in the passing lanes.”

After that first 20 minutes, it’s a bit harsh to call the second half a mere statistical necessity, but the result was hardly in question once WVU went into the halftime locker room with a 36-18 advantage. Notre Dame did cut the lead to as few as seven points with three minutes left, but there was really no point at which West Virginia appeared to be threatened.

WVU’s eight turnovers and Notre Dame’s six second-half threes and 23 second-half points from Harangody allowed the game to tighten, but West Virginia was clearly the class team throughout, even as it hit just 12-of-36 2-pointers. The Mountaineers used the 3-pointer to keep its distance, hitting four-of-six in the second half, 11-of-20 for the game.

Ebanks makes presence known: He didn’t light up the scoreboard, but Ebanks was the most influential player on the court on Wednesday night. The freshman from Long Island City in Queens made sure his return to the Five Boroughs didn’t end without leaving an imprint.

Ebanks was particularly aggressive on the glass, grabbing twice as many rebounds as anyone else on the floor — 18. He also led the offense with his passing delivering five assists, most on passes from either the top of the key or the free-throw line. WVU used his length to penetrate the zone with passes and allow the Mountaineers clear looks over and through it.

Ebanks didn’t have a superb shooting night, hitting on just 3-of-11 attempts, but he could get his shot within 10 feet of the basket whenever he wanted to. On other nights, those shots will fall and even gaudier scoring lines will follow.

It’s a testament to Ebanks’ importance to the team that he played more minutes than any other Mountaineer. Bob Huggins trusts him to handle the ball and kept him in there for 37 minutes, and Ebanks rewarded his coach’s trust by controlling the defensive glass for the majority of that time. Ebanks will be a pro — perhaps after next season, perhaps sooner — but until then, he’s sure to blossom into one of the most versatile and talented players in the conference.

Bryant gets an incomplete: As for West Virginia’s point-guard play, what could I learn? Defense is optional this year in South Bend, which is why that 8-10 conference record is no scheduling fluke but a pretty accurate reflection of a fatally flawed team. Bryant wasn’t forced to do anything that made him uncomfortable thanks to the Irish’s permissive defense.

Unlike in previous games, though, Bryant did play most of this one, seeing 35 minutes of run. In a loss to Cincinnati in late February, Bryant was notably absent down the stretch as his teammates frittered away late opportunities to pull out the win. Bryant ended up with a nice line on Wednesday — 17 points, 4-of-7 on threes, four assists to one turnover — but he wasn’t called upon to general the offense. Alex Ruoff, Da’Sean Butler and Ebanks are the three guys tasked with making sure the offensive runs smoothly, and Bryant is a point guard in positional designation only.

“He stayed in the game a lot longer as far as past games, because he was doing a lot of things right today — he scored very well,” noted Butler. “He just did all the things, basic, correctly and stayed good. That’s all I can say.”

That’s about all there way to say, and Butler put it very well. His muted praise is telling.

Pittsburgh’s team defense may give us a better indication of whether Bryant has the chops to run an offense deep into March now, but it’s pretty clear that Huggins will not sink or swim with the performance of his freshman. Ruoff has his own thoughts about the quarterfinal matchup with Pittsburgh on Thursday night.

“We got to man-up — they’re a physical team,” said Ruoff in reference to the Panthers, who swept West Virginia this season. “We got [in] a lot of foul trouble at their place and kind of opened the game up. We got to match their physical play…limit our mistakes and match their physical play.”

I guess the senior is thinking about Pitt’s physical play. Bryant is surely aware as well that Thursday’s test will be far different and more physical one than Wednesday’s.

This story was also published for SNY.tv.