West Virginia: The Mountaineers’ 98-95 overtime loss at Pittsburgh was the most excusable of the defeats suffered by the Big East’s top four on this holiday weekend, but it was also West Virginia’s second-straight loss. It may come as a surprise to some that it’s WVU’s defense and not its offense that has been mostly to blame in the team’s five defeats.

You can see that West Virginia is allowing 0.085 points per possession more than it is scoring in its five losses. The main culprit is field-goal defense. Despite the Mountaineers’ notable length, they are allowing opponents to make 40 percent of their 3-pointers and 57 percent of their 2-pointers in these defeats. For the season, West Virginia is ahead of only the comparatively tiny Marquette and Providence squads in 2-point defense among Big East teams.

Also notable is West Virginia’s proclivity for putting its opponents on the foul line. Some of that is fouling late in games to try to come back, but a lot of it is just being foul-prone. I’ve written before about the link between a team’s willingness to foul and its ability to force turnovers, but WVU is not getting a consistent turnover payoff from its many fouls. An inability to force turnovers combined with putting opponents on the line and allowing a high percentage of makes from the field means that West Virginia is getting far too few stops for a team with eyes on a run to the Final Four.

Syracuse: I wonder how we’ll look back on the Orange’s 66-60 loss to Louisville come in the end of the season. There’s a decent chance that the most important effect of it was to get Louisville into the NCAA Tournament. The Orange still looks a likely No. 1 seed and remains favored to win the Big East regular-season title.

What have we really learned about Syracuse in the last two games — including the narrow and controversial victory over Connecticut — that was underexposed previously? John Gasaway shows that in the highly-offensive Big East, Syracuse actually has been quite mediocre on offense, at least in conference games:

That’s right — Syracuse has been about as good on offense as Providence and Pittsburgh in conference play, and, if you use the RPI, Syracuse has played an easier conference schedule than both teams. To score 1.08 points per possession might be quite an achievement in a conference where scoring wasn’t so prevalent — like the ACC or Big Ten — but the Big East average is 1.06 in conference games. The Orange is not the offensive juggernaut you may have been led to believe.

The primary problem is turnovers. Andy Rautins, Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine all have unacceptable turnover rates, and not even the forwards can keep their rates below 18 percent. Among major-conference teams, only Georgia, North Carolina and Rutgers have allowed a possession to be stolen from them as often as Syracuse has. None of those teams will even be playing in the NCAA Tournament.

The loss to Louisville wasn’t caused by turnovers — though SU had 12 — or poor free-throw shooting from bigs Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku — they combined to take only two free throws; instead, Syracuse was bullied inside. Louisville hit 57.7 percent of its 2-pointers against the third-best 2-point defense in the Big East. The thing is, Louisville only attempted 26 2-pointers, as the Cards were much more willing to jack up 30 threes against Syracuse’s zone. The Cards only hit 30 percent, an ideal figure that should have led to a Syracuse victory, but the Orange could not close out possessions, which leads us to the potentially fatal flaw of the 2-3 zone: defensive rebounding.

Louisville had 38 missed shots open for rebounding and snagged 18 of them. Samardo Samuels and Jared Swopshire each had four offensive rebounds; Rakeem Buckles grabbed three more. It’s unlikely that a defense is going to be excellent at every aspect of defending, but it’s in games where the relative mediocrity of the offense is exposed that the Achilles’ heel of the defense becomes more problematic.

Georgetown: Rutgers’ offense is the third worst in the Big East in conference, scoring 0.97 points per possession. Georgetown’s defense is tied for the third best in conference, allowing 1.03 points per possession. Somehow Rutgers managed to score 1.14 points per possession to come up with the unlikely, 71-68 victory in Piscataway. Georgetown’s fatal flaw: turnover differential.

The Hoyas currently have the 12th-worst turnover differential of the 73 major-conference teams. Here’s a list of the major-conference teams that — like Georgetown — rank outside the national top 200 in both turnovers forced and turnovers committed: Iowa, Rutgers, Georgia, Southern Cal. That is not a list where one would expect a top seed to find itself.

Against Rutgers, Georgetown committed 14 turnovers and forced just eight. That difference – plus some big 3-pointers by RU — allowed the Scarlet Knights to make up for shooting a worse percentage and getting fewer rebounds than the Hoyas.

Turnover differential is not a new problem for Georgetown under John Thompson III. With the exception of the 2005-06 team, JT3’s offenses have always had turnover problems. A lot of that has to do with the number of passes in each offensive set. Teams that pass more — especially on the interior — and run longer offensive sets tend to turn the ball over more. On defense, last year’s team was the anomaly in that it actually forced turnovers. That team was led by the thieving of Jessie Sapp and Greg Monroe, but Sapp is now gone and Monroe isn’t picking up steals as frequently this season.

This turnover disparity forces Georgetown to be extra efficient everywhere else, especially since Georgetown is not a dominant or even a proficient rebounding team. The combination of mediocre rebounding and a poor turnover differential means that GU’s opponents are getting more shots than the Hoyas are.

Rutgers attempted six more free throws and one more field goal than Georgetown. For the season, opponents have attempted 96 more field goals than Georgetown. Despite attempting 96 more, opponents have 87 fewer makes, since the Hoyas are that good at making shots and forcing opponents to miss. What this creates, though, is a narrow margin for error, one that could be devastating against a quality opponent in the NCAA Tournament.

Villanova: Like Syracuse in its narrow victory over Connecticut on Wednesday, there were worrying signs for Villanova on Saturday in a win over Providence. The Friars, undermanned and underexperienced, hung with Villanova for 32 minutes, trailing by just four before a controversial personal foul/technical foul combination elimintated Friars’ fifth-year senior guard Sharaud Curry, who had 19 points on the day. Despite poor shooting from Providence, the Friars were able to hang in before losing by 11 thanks in part to Villanova’s overaggression on defense.

The Wildcats are now notorious foulers. Their games typically take more than two hours, 20 minutes to complete. Jay Wright has a deep bench, and so foul trouble isn’t as much of a worry, although Antonio Pena’s disqualifications do hinder VU on the interior. Against a Friars team not known for its ability to get to the rim and draw contact, Villanova still committed 23 fouls and allowed 33 free-throw attempts, this a week after Georgetown attempted 50 free throws in a 103-90 Villanova defeat.

On Big Monday, it was more of the same. UConn attempted 44 free throws, making 35, and giving the Huskies a 19-point advantage at the foul line in an 84-75 UConn victory. Pena and Corey Stokes both fouled out. Much like Louisville’s win at Syracuse, Connecticut’s victory is surely a bigger positive for the Huskies than it is a negative for the Wildcats, but Villanova’s proclivity for committing fouls is reaching epic proportions.

Of major-conference teams, only Colorado and Washington send their opponents to the foul line at a greater rate than Villanova does. We can only pray that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee doesn’t matchup Villanova and Kansas State in the same bracket, because that game would have the potential of clearing three hours without any calls to the bullpen. At least Kansas State gets to the foul line more than any other team as it fouls its opponents. The Wildcats are just fourth in the Big East at getting to the line. In Big East play, opponents have gotten to the foul line 54 more times than Villanova has and scored 29 more points from the stripe.

If you’re looking for a recent example of a team with Final Four pedigree that fouled so much, you won’t find one. There were two Sweet 16 teams in 2008 with defensive free-throw-attempt-per-field-goal-attempt rates of greater than 46.0 (Villanova’s is currently at 49.7). That year, Western Kentucky (48.7) and, yes, Villanova (46.4) each made the Sweet 16 as No. 12 seeds despite being so foul happy. In 2007, Southern Illinois was a No. 4 seed and lost narrowly to Kansas in the Sweet 16 with an exact match (49.7) of VU’s FTA/FGA rate. In 2006, Billy Gillispie’s Texas A&M team won a game as a No. 12 seed over Syracuse with a rate of 48.5. That’s the extent of NCAA Tournament success for squads that even approach Villanova’s “foul”-ness since 2004.

Either Villanova must improve its ability to play defense without fouling, or it will risk losing big games at the foul line, ironic for a team that shoots free throws so well (eighth in the land at 75.8 percent). Either way, be sure to set your DVR to record at least an hour over in any game the Cats play for the rest of the season.

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: This bracket came together well, but there were still a few challenges. Most notably, any of the last three teams in the field could easily be omitted. South Carolina, Texas Tech and VCU have thin cases, but I found them marginally more compelling than Mississippi, Florida, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and Louisville. If the bracket were announced today, I would not be very confident in those final three teams.

The other challenge continues to be in filling out the top four seedlines. Finding the last two No. 3 seeds was particularly difficult with the poor play of Texas and after Wisconsin’s home defeat to Illinois. Still, the full-season profiles of those two teams remains stronger than Vanderbilt, Gonzaga and the others on the No. 4 seedline.

Moving In as At-large: Illinois, South Carolina, Texas Tech

Moving Out as At-large: Florida, Louisville, Mississippi

Moving In as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt)

Moving Out as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

On the Bubble: It wasn’t a good week for most teams around the bubble. Notre Dame, Minnesota, Louisville, Northwestern, Florida, Washington, Oklahoma State and Virginia Commonwealth all suffered damaging losses. Only two of those teams are in this projection. The Big 12 has taken yet another bid, this one ostensibly from the Big East, which has just five teams in the latest projection after the Cardinals’ wretched performance at St. John’s on Thursday night. There are now seven Big East teams within 20 spots on the bubble but all are on the wrong side of it. The Big Ten saw two teams suffer nearly crippling losses — Northwestern at Iowa on Wednesday, Minnesota at home to Michigan on Thursday — but Illinois defeated Michigan State and Wisconsin in the span of three days to leap into the field.

ACC: After a second-straight road win, Duke now appears destined for a No. 2 seed and could even pip a No. 1 seed with a dual ACC regular-season and conference championship. Wake Forest and Georgia Tech are also comfortably in the field and should view No. 4 seeds as achievable goals should they finish strong. Wake had a big overtime win in Charlottesville on Wednesday. At the same time, Georgia Tech was losing to Miami in Coral Gables.

The bubble picture is an interesting one, as Clemson and Florida State continue to jockey on the positive side of the bubble. The Tigers defeated FSU in Clemson on Wednesday. Maryland was off in the midweek and will travel to Durham on Saturday. The Terrapins remain just barely in the field despite a 6-2 conference record. With just two wins against top-50 teams, Maryland will have to knock off at least one of the four remaining top-50 teams on its schedule or risk omission.

The strangest case of any team fighting for an at-large spot may be Virginia Tech’s. Like the Terrapins, VaTech has a lovely conference mark (6-3) to go with a 19-4 overall record, but the Hokies are still on the outside looking in. If Seth Greenberg’s team does miss the NCAAs, it can blame a non-conference schedule ranked 336th most difficult of 347 teams. VaTech does have seven wins against top-100 teams but just one against the RPI top 50 — last Saturday’s home win over Clemson. With four more games against top-50 teams upcoming, VaTech will have plenty of chances to pad the profile, and the Hokies better take advantage.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 2)
Wake Forest (No. 5)
Georgia Tech (No. 7)
Clemson (No. 8)
Florida State (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Maryland (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (fourth-to-last out)

Big 12: I think it’s unlikely that the Big 12 gets eight teams in the NCAA Tournament, but right now it deserves all of them. Texas Tech has surprised most with its play of late — the Red Raiders have now won 4-of-6 after a one-point win at Oklahoma on Tuesday. The meat of the schedule is still to come for Pat Knight’s team, but Tech has four of its last seven at home.

Kansas appears poised to continue its reign atop the Big 12 after a commanding win in Austin on Monday. The Jayhawks have a three-game lead in the loss column and firm grasp on a No. 1 seed. Texas, meanwhile, has hit a crisis point. Rick Barnes has not found a proper mix of his immensely talented roster, and he is now looking up at the top seeds of the tournament. Kansas State is in better shape than Texas, especially with a couple of home games against weaker Big 12 teams — Colorado and Nebraska — coming up. Frank Martin’s team is likely to be favored in its next five games until a March 3 rematch with Kansas in Lawrence.

Texas Tech’s ascension has come as Oklahoma State slips closer to the cutline. The Cowboys have lost three in a row and now face a critical stretch — vs. Oklahoma, at Iowa State, vs. Baylor — where two wins are the minimum requirement. With Baylor and Missouri looking solid, OSU and Tech are the two Big 12 teams currently in the field who are most likely to be sad on Selection Sunday.

Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 3)
Texas (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 6)
Texas A&M (No. 7)
Missouri (No. 8)
Oklahoma State (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for conference balancing; sixth-to-last in)
Texas Tech (No. 12, third-to-last in)

Big East: The Big 12’s eight bids in this projection are approximately as astounding as the Big East’s five. These things have a way of working themselves out by mid-March, but the Big East bubble teams need to start winning. Of the seven Big East bubble teams, only one — Seton Hall — won on the midweek, and the Pirates were the bubble team furthest from the field before that victory and remain so.

USF, Cincinnati and Marquette were off in the midweek, and all face important tests this weekend. USF heads to Marquette for perhaps the biggest bubble contest anywhere this weekend. Cincinnati travels to Connecticut before heading to USF on Tuesday. Notre Dame hosts St. John’s, and Louisville travels to Syracuse before those two teams meet in the Bluegrass State on Wednesday. Finally, Seton Hall may be the most unlikely of the Big East’s Bubble Seven to make the NCAAs, but the Pirates host DePaul on Sunday before traveling to St. John’s next Tuesday. A 2-0 mark would bring Seton Hall to 6-7 in conference with plenty of winnable games remaining.

There are teams in the Big East that aren’t on the bubble, and four of them are right near the top of the field. Villanova’s win at West Virginia made the Wildcats’ stay on the No. 2 seedline a decidedly brief one. Syracuse managed to escape at home against Connecticut to stay the No. 2 overall seed. Truthfully, the Orange would probably need to lose twice to fall off the top line. WVU and Georgetown slot in as No. 2 seeds, although West Virginia is the last of that grouping and probably needs to win at Pittsburgh on Friday to stay there.

Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 1)
Georgetown (No. 2)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 5)
Cincinnati (last out)
Louisville (fifth-to-last out)
South Florida (seventh-to-last out)
Marquette (eighth-to-last out)
Notre Dame (10th-to-last out)
Connecticut (18th-to-last out)
Seton Hall (19th-to-last out)

Big Ten: Illinois has been undaunted by the increase in competition over the last week. The Illini’s offense — led by Demetri McCamey — has spurred a 2-0 stretch that brought Bruce Weber’s team from more than a dozen spots outside the field a week ago to 10th-to-last in the field in this projection. Fellow bubble brethren Minnesota and Northwestern cannot speak as proudly about their midweek performances, and neither is more than a longshot at this point — though the Gophers are the shorter of the longshots.

Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State could all finish from a No. 2 seed to a No. 5 or 6. The Boilermakers have the most impressive profile so far, the Buckeyes the least. But Evan Turner’s absence should continue to boost OSU’s seeding as long as the Buckeyes continue to play well. The big game of the weekend is on Sunday when Ohio State attempts to cool off the red-hot Illini in Champaign.

Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Wisconsin (No. 3)
Michigan State (No. 4)
Ohio State (No. 5)
Illinois (No. 9, 10th-to-last in)
Minnesota (20th-to-last out)

Pac-10: While the nation writes off the Pac-10 of unworthy of an at-large bid, California is trying to make sure that it secures one should a Pac-10 Tournament title not come the Bears’ way. Jerome Randle starred in a decisive victory over pretenders to the throne Washington on Thursday in Berkeley. The Huskies now must be nearly perfect to make the field, and the same could be said for both Arizona schools, which had little trouble sweeping the Oregon schools at home on Thursday.

Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (ninth-to-last out)
Arizona (16th-to-last out)
Arizona State (17th-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee are almost certain to make the field, and UK is looking good for a No. 1 seed, provided the Wildcats have at most two slip-ups from here on out. The Volunteers drilled the Vols on Tuesday in Nashville and can claim a top-four seed with continued quality play. Tennessee figures to end up more in the No. 6 or No. 7 seed area.

The SEC bubble is one of the harder to parse. South Carolina, Mississippi and Florida have borderline cases, but it’s the Gamecocks’ quality wins — Richmond, Kentucky, Florida, South Florida — that get them in right now. Mississippi’s 5-5 conference record in the weaker SEC division isn’t helping Andy Kennedy’s team either. Mississippi State got back in the mix with its home win over the Rebels on Thursday. The Bulldogs own two more losses against teams outside the top 100 (two) than wins over the top 25 (zero).

Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 4)
Tennessee (No. 6)
South Carolina (No. 13, last in)
Florida (second-to-last out)
Mississippi (13th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown: Let’s talk about Cornell. Peer pressure is the biggest reason why I bumped the Big Red from a No. 13 to a No. 12 seed. The Ivy League leaders are ranked in the top 25 and have appeared as high as a No. 7 seed in some projections, and my No. 13 seed was the lowest on the most recent Bracket Matrix. I have no doubt that Cornell is a good team, but I like my teams seeded on the first 10 or so lines to have beaten someone good. Cornell has a total of zero wins against the top 50 and three against the top 100. Cornell’s best three wins are over St. John’s, Alabama and Harvard, none of which is in the mix for an NCAA Tournament berth. In Cornell’s three games against teams with even modestly legitimate chances at making the field, the Big Red lost a close one at Kansas, lost by 15 at Syracuse and lost by 10 at home to Seton Hall. Does that look like a No. 7, 8, 9 or even 10 seed to you?

Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Gonzaga (No. 4)
Brigham Young (No. 4)
Northern Iowa (No. 5)
Butler (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7)
Temple (No. 7)
Xavier (No. 8)
UAB (No. 8)
Rhode Island (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Siena (No. 10)
Dayton (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 10, seventh-to-last in)
Utah State (No. 11)
UTEP (No. 11)
Charlotte (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
Virginia Commonwealth (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Cornell (No. 12)
William & Mary (sixth-to-last out)
San Diego State (11th-to-last out)
Wichita State (12th-to-last out)
Memphis (14th-to-last out)
Tulsa (15th-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.

It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.

Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference.

In the last two projections, finding a team to fill out the third seedline was the biggest problem, but Wisconsin’s victory over MSU vaulted the Badgers to a No. 3, eliminating that problem. The new problem was filling out the fourth seedline, where a half-dozen or more teams have good cases to join New Mexico, BYU and Baylor. I went with Ohio State because the Buckeyes seemed to fit the best, despite ranking just 22nd in the BTI seeding model. A bit of a bump for Evan Turner’s injury combined with OSU’s recent terrific play gives the Buckeyes the nod over Temple, Vanderbilt, Butler, Gonzaga, Tennessee and Northern Iowa.

Moving In as At-large: South Florida

Moving Out as At-large: Connecticut

Moving In as Automatic: Old Dominion (from at-large to automatic; Colonial), Lehigh (Patriot)

Moving Out as Automatic: George Mason (Colonial), Lafayette (Patriot)

On the Bubble: There was not a ton of movement from one side of the cutline to the other, with USF getting the big bump after Wednesday’s win at Georgetown, while UConn finally couldn’t justify its spot any longer after a sorry performance at Louisville. The last team in and last team out remained the same, as neither South Carolina nor Dayton played during the midweek. There were a couple of big moves from teams that had been well outside the field and are now knocking on the door. Notre Dame and Washington, with Thursday home wins against solid opposition, moved into the last 10 out.

ACC: Duke jumps back on to the No. 2 seedline after an impressive performance at home against Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils still have that ugly 1-4 road record, but seven wins against the top 50 — a total that is tied with Kansas for most in the nation — have a way of making the road mark easier to ignore. Three of Duke’s next four are on the road against teams that don’t appear to be headed to the NCAA Tournament, so the Blue Devils could pad the road record over the next 12 days.

The most interesting action in the ACC is happening at the bubble where Maryland’s road win at Florida State was a huge victory for the Terps’ chances and equally damaging to FSU. Gary Williams’ team is not comfortable, but it is in very solid shape thanks to a 5-2 conference mark. With six top-100 wins and two top-50 wins, FSU is still in decent shape, but home losses kill the RPI, and Leonard Hamilton’s saw his team’s fall to 44 after Thursday’s loss. Maryland hosts UNC, and FSU hosts Miami this weekend.

A little further from the cutline are Virginia Tech and Virginia, both of whom secured solid home wins against second-tier ACC competition this week. Both schools still have plenty of work to do to compensate for weak play out of conference — in VaTech’s case, that’s mainly due to a wimpy schedule. Virginia’s final nine conference games should be its toughest, starting with a home matchup against Wake Forest on Saturday. Virginia Tech hosts Clemson that same day.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 2)
Georgia Tech (No. 6)
Wake Forest (No. 7)
Clemson (No. 7, moved to No. 8 for bracket balancing)
Maryland (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Florida State (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing; third-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (18th-to-last out)
Virginia (20th-to-last out)

Big 12: The one thing you should notice about the Big 12 is just how comfortable its seven bids look. None of the seven teams are among the last 10 in, and that’s true even after Oklahoma State lost its second straight on Monday to Texas. There’s still plenty of time for OSU, Missouri or Texas A&M to play their ways out of the field, but nine conference wins should get each in.

Texas got back on track with a terrific second half in Stillwater on Monday, Kansas State blew out Nebraska in Lincoln, and Baylor had no trouble with Iowa State at home. Kansas remained undefeated after a win on Wednesday, but it took overtime to leave Boulder with the victory. All four teams are playing for seeding, although Baylor — at just 4-3 in conference — needs to be careful that it doesn’t get swept in its upcoming road games. Scott Drew’s team travels to A&M on Saturday and Nebraska on Wednesday.

Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Texas (No. 2)
Kansas State (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 4)
Missouri (No. 8)
Texas A&M (No. 8)
Oklahoma State (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for bracket balancing)

Big East: Georgetown’s home loss to South Florida dropped the Hoyas down a seedline, but Syracuse, Villanova and West Virginia all won comfortably. The real intrigue is taking place near the bubble where eight teams cannot be sure of their March fate.

Louisville got the win it needed at home against Connecticut, and the Cards are now halfway to the 10 league wins they’ll likely need to make the NCAAs. UConn is now in very tough shape. The winless week against Providence and Marquette will be what fans will point to if the Huskies fail to dance, and after their play in Louisville, it’s hard to see many more W’s coming from this bunch. At the very minimum, UConn needs to finish 5-3 in conference to have a decent chance at the Garden in March, and it will probably take a 6-2 mark to seal a bid. The Huskies still face four very difficult road games, including trips to Syracuse and Villanova.

Pittsburgh continued to slide with a weak second half at West Virginia on Wednesday. The Panthers are still in better shape than the other seven Big East teams fighting for 3-5 berths, but that gap is closing. The Panthers host Seton Hall, Robert Morris and West Virginia over the next week. The Pirates lost their second straight road game at Villanova on Tuesday.

I thought that Notre Dame’s loss to Rutgers last Saturday put the death knell in its realistic NCAA Tournament hopes, but the Irish made a surprising jump in my model with the win over Cincinnati on Thursday. UND has a very difficult upcoming schedule, and will probably need to finish 5-3, but there’s definitely still a chance. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is still in the field despite the fact that the Bearcats don’t have the look of an NCAA Tournament team. The Bearcats — still being propped up by non-league wins over Maryland and Vanderbilt — will have to win on the road if they hope to earn a bid, and they have four more chances. But first, UC hosts Syracuse on Sunday.

How could I have gotten this far and not mentioned USF, which is trying to hone in on Northwestern’s feel-good rooting interest? Two weeks ago, the Bulls had won just one Big East game on the road and had never won two straight league games. Stan Heath has now seen his team win two Big East road games and four straight in a fortnight, all without top post player Augustus Gilchrist. Irresistible scorer Dominique Jones has to be conference player of the year, right? The new road warriors travel to Notre Dame and Marquette on the next two weekends. A 10-8 finish and a win in New York will almost certainly get the Bulls in.

Finally, there’s Marquette, which avenged that loss at DePaul by defeating the Blue Demons by 11 in Milwaukee. MU is back to .500 in conference and doesn’t face a top-four Big East team the rest of the way. That means a lot of winnable games — but also tricky ones — starting Saturday in Providence against a Friars team that the Golden Eagles defeated by 30 on Jan. 17.

Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Georgetown (No. 3)
Pittsburgh (No. 7)
Louisville (No. 9)
Cincinnati (No. 10, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing; ninth-to-last in)
South Florida (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing; sixth-to-last in)
Notre Dame (third-to-last out)
Marquette (sixth-to-last out)
Connecticut (10th-to-last out)
Seton Hall (16th-to-last out)

Big Ten: I discussed most of the action surrounding the first four teams in the general bracket breakdown that leads this piece, so let’s get straight to the bubble. Illinois had a nice win at Iowa, and Northwestern pulled away from Michigan in the second half. Minnesota was off. The Illini have just completed their very generous early schedule, while the Wildcats have just begun the soft underbelly of its league schedule. Chances are all three teams meet somewhere around .500, but it’ll take at least 10 conference wins for any of these teams to dance.

The big game for the bubble teams this weekend is in Champaign where Illinois hosts Michigan State, and Bruce Weber’s team will try to prove that its improved 2-point defense wasn’t a product of a soft recent schedule. Minnesota tries to bounce back from an ugly loss to Ohio State with a trip to Penn State, and Northwestern hosts Indiana.

Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Wisconsin (No. 3)
Michigan State (No. 3)
Ohio State (No. 4)
Minnesota (seventh-to-last out)
Illinois (14th-to-last out)

Pac-10: California’s hopes of securing an NCAA Tournament bid before reaching Los Angeles for the Pac-10 Tournament took a major hit with a loss in LA at USC on Thursday night. Arizona, the team Cal entered Thursday tied with atop the league standings, had a tough loss at Washington, as top interior scorer Derrick Williams fouled out in just seven minutes. With those two results plus Arizona State’s win at Washington State and UCLA’s victory over Stanford, there is now a four-way tie atop the Pac-10 standings at 6-4.

Many people are assuming that the Pac-10 will only get one bid, and that may be true, but because it’s assumed to be true, most are ignoring the four teams in the league that can still earn at-large berths. Along with Cal and Arizona, Washington is now within striking distance after the win over the Wildcats, and the Sun Devils also have a puncher’s chance with a strong finish. ASU and UW meet in Seattle on Saturday in a critical game for both teams.

Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (fourth-to-last out)
Arizona (eighth-to-last out)
Arizona State (15th-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky has finally moved up to No. 4 in the BTI seeding model after a second straight quality win on Tuesday, this one against Mississippi. Tennessee narrowly escaped LSU, and Vanderbilt had a tough home win against Mississippi State. All three of those SEC East teams are comfortably positioned for an NCAA bid.

Elsewhere in the East, Florida got a much-needed road victory at Alabama. It was a game that UF probably could not afford to lose if it has hopes of getting the 10 conference wins that would assure a bid, though a 9-7 mark would still give the Gators a chance. South Carolina was on a bye and remained on the very edge of the field. The Gamecocks head to Tennessee on Saturday.

Out West, things continue to look sour for the Mississippi schools. MSU dropped its third straight road game by a combined 13 points in Nashville on Wednesday. With a trip to Gainesville on Saturday, the Bulldogs are in desperate need of a win or risk losing touch with the field. The Rebels dropped to 4-4 in conference after a 10-point loss in Lexington. That was expected — the killer was the Sunday home loss to Arkansas. Andy Kennedy’s team will have to avoid a similarly injurious defeat when it hosts Alabama on Saturday. MSU and Ole Miss meet in Starkville on Tuesday.

Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 5)
Tennessee (No. 6)
Mississippi (No. 11, fourth-to-last in)
Florida (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing; second-to-last in)
South Carolina (No. 13, last in)
Mississippi State (19th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: It’s becoming clear to me that the toughest part about seeding the upcoming tournament will be determining what to do with the glut top mid-major teams. Be it New Mexico, Butler, Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Siena or Cornell (along with many others), bracket projectors are going to have a hard time figuring out the appropriate place for each. In the past, selection committees have been wildly erratic in placing teams like this, sometimes missing the projectors’ consensus by 2-3 seedlines.

For instance, Gonzaga and Butler are both ranked in the top-15 in the Coaches Poll, but the two teams are running well behind that (24th and 27th respectively) in the BTI model. On the other hand, Northern Iowa was 22nd in the poll but is 16th in the BTI. Rhode Island and Xavier are unranked but are slotted 23rd and 25th (right with Butler and Gonzaga) in the BTI model. The NCAA Selection Committee is not a slave to public opinion, and it definitely favors my model over the polls, but the relationship is not as strong with mid-majors as with the big boys.

Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 4)
Brigham Young (No. 4)
Temple (No. 5)
Butler (No. 5)
Gonzaga (No. 5)
Northern Iowa (No. 6)
Rhode Island (No. 6)
Xavier (No. 7)
UNLV (No. 8)
UAB (No. 8)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Charlotte (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Richmond (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 10, seventh-to-last in)
Siena (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing)
Utah State (No. 12)
Cornell (No. 12)
Dayton (last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (second-to-last out)
San Diego State (fifth-to-last out)
William & Mary (ninth-to-last out)
Northeastern (11th-to-last out)
Wichita State (12th-to-last out)
Tulsa (13th-to-last out)
Memphis (17th-to-last out)

Around the college basketball world on Saturday, folks were wringing their hands about the Boilermakers’ losing streak. SI’s Seth Davis called it a freefall, the folks on ESPN questioned the Final Four pedigree of Purdue, and people on the Big Ten Network could not get through a sentence without bemoaning the effect of Lewis Jackson’s injury on the Boilermakers.

As often happens, despite all the analysis, the pundits danced around the truth while missing it. The first issue is putting too much meaning into the streak. Purdue played three strong teams, two on the road. A 1-2 record in that stretch would not have been out of the ordinary, so 0-3 shouldn’t have been cause for panic. Several famous teams of recent vintage have only been saved from the same fate by friendly scheduling.

Last season, North Carolina lost two of three games but had a home game with College of Charleston in between, making the chances of a three-game losing streak virtually nil. Villanova lost three of five games last January and had an overtime win at Seton Hall mixed in — not to mention a gimme at home against St. John’s. UNC won the national title and beat Villanova in the Final Four.

In 2007, Georgetown lost two games in a row twice but were bailed out each time in the third game, first by James Madison and then by Rutgers. That same season, Florida lost three games in four in February with a home win over South Carolina mixed in. Earlier that season, Florida lost two of three, but a terrible Southern team broke up a potential three-game streak. UCLA lost its last two pre-NCAA Tournament games that season as well. Those were three of the four Final Four teams, including the champion that season.

Even in 2008, the year when the Final Four featured all chalk, Kansas reached San Antonio despite losing two of three in mid-February. The Jayhawks found a pleasant home game with Colorado sandwiched in between. Like the 2007 Gators and 2009 Tar Heels, the 2008 Jayhawks managed to win it all despite rough patches in January or February.

The schedule-makers and a sub-par run of play conspired to put Purdue in the cross-hairs this weekend, but it should not create the illusion that this is not a very good team. The injured Boilermaker on everyone’s lips has very little to do with the recent failures.

Lewis Jackson is a solid point Big Ten point guard. He’s not an all-league player, not an honorable-mention all-league player, and almost certainly not among the best half-dozen point guards in the conference. What he is is not available to Matt Painter right now. That makes him the first answer to what’s wrong with Purdue. We’ve already determined that there might not be much of anything necessarily wrong, but if there is something truly wrong, it’s not a solid-defending, pass-first point guard who’s not a good shooter and just 5-foot-9.

Nonetheless, Jackson is now the Joe Mazzulla of the Big Ten now. Mazzulla missed most of last season for West Virginia with a shoulder injury, and, if you listened to the announcers in a given West Virginia loss, you’d have thought that Mazzulla could have single-handedly solve 90 percent of what ailed the Mountaineers. In reality, Mazzulla was a solid rotation player who was very limited offensively but provided great energy on defense. And while his loss to injury was not insignificant, it was inflated by perception.

The real problem with Purdue in its three-game losing streak — and even in Tuesday’s 84-78 win — was the defense’s inability to do what it does best — force turnovers and keep down opponents shooting percentage. Jackson may have had some small impact on these issues — primarily the former — but nothing to match what many have implied. Jackson is not Minnesota’s Al Nolen or even his own teammate, Chris Kramer. Jackson is not an impact defensive player, and, in fact, his lack of size can be a liability at times.

In the 14 games before the three-game losing streak, Purdue did not allow a point per possession in any of them. In the four games since, Purdue has not prevented any of its opponent from reaching that threshold. Against Wisconsin and Illinois, Purdue did not do its usual job of forcing turnovers. Against Ohio State and Northwestern, the Boilermakers couldn’t hold the Buckeyes and Wildcats to low eFGs. Purdue also had an even bigger than normal program with fouling in the Northwestern loss that led to 26 made free throws for NU.

This is a team problem that Painter is undoubtedly addressing. He was quoted recently as saying that no one besides Robbie Hummel is giving the effort he demands. This is not a problem solved by inserting Jackson into the lineup. Pointing to his absence is both easy and lazy. If Purdue is to get back in the Big Ten race and make a run in the NCAA Tournament — and it’s surely capable of both — it will be because the same defense that dominated Minnesota and stifled a very good West Virginia offense returns.

Jackson could be part of Purdue’s return to defensive dominance in February (when he’s expected to be recovered from an injured left foot), but this will have to be a team effort. The Purdue Boilermakers will not be defined by a three-game losing streak in January or an injury to a mediocre point guard. Their ability to define themselves lies ahead.

In the final for the Maui Invitational, the Bearcats will take on Gonzaga, who squeaked by Colorado and then took down Wisconsin in the semis. Disparities in free-throw shooting and rebounding could determine the outcome. Here’s a preview of what could be the Big East’s third major tournament victory of the young season.

Cincinnati is off to a 4-0 start because of its interior. The Bearcats have dominated both glasses, especially the offensive one, in the early going. Yancy Gates (15.2 percent offensive-rebounding rate), Steve Toyloy (12.9) and, surprisingly, 6-foot-3 Dion Dixon (10.1) have been terrific in getting the Bearcats second chances, and it’s a good thing, because UC is shooting at just a 48.7 percent eFG. They’ve needed the extra possessions that offensive rebounding brings.

The bad shooting is almost entirely a factor of poor outside shooting (28.7 percent on 3-pointers). Cincinnati is great at every factor impacted by interior play, and 2-point shooting is no different. Gates (59.5 2-point percentage), Rashad Bishop (68.4) and guards Dixon (62.5) and Deonta Vaughn (57.1) are all capable of getting it done inside the arc.

This is where Cincinnati’s positive offensive characteristics cease. The outside shooting has been very poor. Vaughn, a 33.8 percent shooter last season is shooting at 28 percent this season. This is not a significant difference but a reminder that the senior is not an exceptional shooter, just usually a more capable one. Freshman Lance Stephenson (3-for-13), Larry Davis (4-for-12), Cashmere Wright (3-for-11) and Dixon (2-for-11) join Vaughn as the five Bearcats who shoot the three most often. On Mick Cronin’s entire team, only Bishop (4-for-10) has a percentage one would consider adequate. Therefore, if Gonzaga can keep the Bearcats on the perimeter — and close possessions with a defensive rebound — it can limit their offensive efficiency.

For all of Cincinnati’s effectiveness inside on offense, it is quizzically poor at getting to the foul line, and herein lies one of the keys to the game. Gonzaga should have a large advantage in free throws. Cincinnati neither gets their often nor prevents its opponents from doing so, while the Bulldogs are quite the opposite. Consider this: of all the Bearcats, only Vaughn makes as many as three free throws for every eight field goals he attempts, a rate considered adequate. Five of Gonzaga’s top seven players make that many free throws per eight attempts.

Steven Gray, Elias Harris, Robert Sacre, Matt Bouldin, G.J. Vilarino — these players will put pressure on the Bearcats defense, because they all can hit shots and get to the line. This is the conundrum opponents have faced against the Bulldogs: they shoot so well as a whole (58.0 percent true-shooting percentage compared to Cincy’s 50.9) and run their sets so well that fouling can sometimes seem like the only answer. This team is the first since Adam Morrison’s final season (2005-06) that has shown such an ability to get to the line. Against a Wisconsin team that is usually loathe to foul, Sacre and Bouldin each made 7-of-7 from the line, and Gonzaga outscored its opponents by 11 points at the line in a 13-point win.

While Bouldin is the shooting star (58.5 percent eFG), Gonzaga actually spreads the ball around pretty well, as the Zags’ top four players — Bouldin, Gray, Harris, Sacre — each have usage rates between 22 and 25 percent, and all of them are efficient. Bouldin is the dual threat — from inside and out — while Gray is more effective from outside (41.7 percent on 3-pointers). Harris and the 7-foot Sacre are strong from 15 feet in. Freshman point guard Demetri Goodson is less active on the offensive end, and he has been a bit turnover-prone, though his nine-point, zero-assist performance against Wisconsin on Tuesday leaves room for optimism.

If Cincinnati can force enough missed shots — a rather obvious statement, I suppose — it should have the edge. UC’s length and athleticism help the Bearcats to be very effective in interior defense, even though Gates is the lone consistent shot-blocker. Bishop, Stephenson and Toyloy also have the length to affect shot selection. Sacre, Harris and Bouldin combine to pose the severest test UC’s interior defense has faced this season. With A.J. Ogilvy and Jeffrey Taylor, Vanderbilt was to provide that test on Monday, but those two made just 5-of-16 2-pointers, while the team made just 9-of-32 (28.1 percent).

Led by Elias (22.4 defensive-rebounding percentage) and Sacre (23.0), Gonzaga is terrific on the defensive glass, but it’s never been very good on the offensive side, as Mark Few’s teams seem more interested in preventing the easy transition bucket. When facing a team that is not going to turn it over very much or miss that many shots, it becomes imperative for UC to close out every defensive possession possible with a rebound.

I’ve listed Gonzaga’s free throws and Cincinnati’s rebounding as the games two keys, but with two teams that appear to be evenly matched, the difference usually comes in who hits more shots. Gonzaga is the better shot-making team, so it should have a modest edge assuming it’s able to get good looks against the Bearcats’ length and quickness.

• ACC
• Big 12
• Big East
• Big Ten
• Pac-10
• SEC
• Mid-Majors

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

ACC

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed.

North Carolina (10-6; 28.7): The preseason rankings of this UNC team do seem a bit lofty considering the lack of experience in Chapel Hill, but the talent is certainly there. Roy Williams can throw Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, Tyler Zeller and freshman John Henson into a potentially lethal frontcourt. If the guard play is good enough to run UNC’s up-and-down attack, this team could be ready to win big soon. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Maryland (10-6; 86.9): The Terrapins have been off the national radar for a few years, but Gary Williams has a team good enough to matter again. Led by Greivis Vasquez, the backcourt is terrific, but the lack of size in the frontcourt should keep Maryland from being an elite team. NCAA No. 5 seed.

Clemson (10-6; 57.2): The Tigers have become the college basketball version of Ohio State. There’s not a lot of respect for Oliver Purnell’s team after another fast start followed by a long, slow fade, but the Tigers have brought in a very good recruiting class to surround Trevor Booker and Demontez Stitt. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Georgia Tech (9-7; 69.8): With Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors, there aren’t a lot of frontcourts excited about matching up with the Yellow Jackets. But the recent underachieving seasons will haunt Paul Hewitt unless he can turn this team into a top-20 club. The talent is definitely there. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Florida State (8-8; 64.0): Toney Douglas may have been the most valuable player in the ACC last season, and he’s gone, but Leonard Hamilton has brought in a stud recruit — Michael Snaer — and returns most of the rest of the team that achieved a No. 5 seed in last year’s tournament. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Wake Forest (8-8; 56.9): The Deacons’ two best players are gone, but a couple of great recruiting classes made sure that plenty of talent remains. This needs to be the year that Al-Farouq Aminu emerges as a force for WF to place this high. NCAA No. 9 seed.

Boston College (7-9; 77.1): Everyone’s back but Tyrese Rice, and some consider that departure a blessing, but the Eagles will be hard-pressed to replace everything he did on offense. And that’s important, considering how offense-dependent Al Skinner’s teams tend to be. If they can spread Rice’s load around efficiently, the Eagles will be in position to make another NCAA Tournament. NIT.

Virginia Tech (7-9; 66.9): Seth Greenberg has had teams good enough to make the NCAAs the last two seasons and come up just short. This team brings back three starters and is certainly good enough to get in the field, but there is just so much competition in the league. Much like last season with FSU, who entered it with lowered expectations after a couple of recent near misses, VaTech may surprise and nab a bid this season. NIT.

Miami (6-10; 48.3): Last year was the year for Frank Haith to get the Hurricanes into the Sweet 16, but things fell apart in conference play. There’s still enough returning to be competitive but more than enough holes to think the NCAA Tournament isn’t in the near future. NIT.

Virginia (6-10; 90.6): The Cavs will be better this season, but there doesn’t appear to be enough depth in the talent base to support Sylvan Landesburg and make UVa truly competitive. An NIT bid would be a terrific accomplishment, but I think the Cavaliers end up just short. No postseason.

North Carolina State (3-13; 47.1): The bar is so low for Sidney that even a 10th- or 11th-place finish would be a pleasant surprise. The Wolfpack does have a nice recruiting class coming in, but the best of the bunch — Lorenzo Brown — will be spending the year in prep school. No postseason.

Big 12

Kansas (14-2; 100.0): There aren’t any questions left about whether Bill Self can win big, and there aren’t many questions about the talent in Lawrence. Much like UNC a year ago, this team will be judged by what it does in March, even if a 30-win season precedes the NCAAs. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Texas (12-4; 75.1): After underachieving last season, Rick Barnes brings back about as stacked a team as you’ll see in college basketball. With Dexter Pittman and Damion James in the frontcourt and Avery Bradley in the backcourt, this team will be a handful on both ends of the floor. Oh, and there are 11 other players good enough to see ample run. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Texas A&M (10-6; 72.1): The Big 12’s consistent overachievers, Mark Turgeon’s Aggies have enough experience to make them an annoyance for the league’s best teams, especially if they’re able to weather the loss of Chinemelu Elonu to the NBA. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Kansas State (10-6; 66.4): The folks in Manhattan have now been witnesses to three straight 20-win seasons, and this team may be the best of the bunch. With Denis Clemente running the show and plenty of talent around him, Frank Martin should get the Wildcats back to the NCAAs for the second time in three seasons. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Oklahoma (9-7; 39.3): This is Willie Warren’s show now, and the point guard is good enough to get this team into the NCAA Tournament with minimal help. The Sooners will struggle on the glass, but Jeff Capel should have them back in the NCAAs again nevertheless. NCAA No. 10 seed.

Oklahoma State (8-8; 54.3): Travis Ford lost four players from last year’s rotation, but James Anderson returns along with a terrific set of newcomers. It took OSU time to get used to Ford’s system, but a year in, the Cowboys should avoid last year’s slow start even with less experience. NCAA No. 11 seed.

Missouri (8-8; 55.6): The losses of Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll are massive, but Missouri is built on depth, and the Tigers should have enough to hang around NCAA consideration this winter. It will be up to J.T. Tiller and Zaire Taylor to handle a much larger load on offense. NIT.

Baylor (6-10; 44.2): The Bears were expected to compete for the Sweet 16 last season but ended up in the NIT final. This year, Scott Drew has to replace a lot of talent and experience with three starters gone. LaceDarius Dunn’s emergence as a star is Step No. 1 toward the Bears competing for an NCAA bid. NIT.

Iowa State (6-10; 77.1): Greg McDermott expects to have his best team in Ames, but, considering he hasn’t won more than six league games in any of his first three seasons, “best” doesn’t really mean a lot. Without someone to help out Craig Brackins, the Cyclones’ offense will continue to come up short. NIT.

Texas Tech (4-12; 71.2): Pat Knight implemented a new run-and-gun system, but a 3-13 record showed that it paid few dividends. Knight has some nice pieces, including Mike Singletary, coming back, but his team will need to be better than “nice” to compete with that Big 12 South schedule. No postseason.

Colorado (4-12; 89.7): This would appear to be a good opportunity for Jeff Bzdelik to set a tenure-high in conference wins. The Buffaloes have won just four Big 12 games in Bzdelik’s first two years, and I predict they will match that this season. We’ll see whether Year 3 has talent ready to complement Cory Higgins. No postseason.

Nebraska (4-12; 39.1): Few coaches lost as much as Doc Sadler did in Lincoln, and it’ll be hard to put together a competitive roster with a lack of impact recruits. Finishing in the league’s top 10 would be a noteworthy accomplishment for this group this winter. No postseason.

Big East

West Virginia (14-4; 81.8): The difference between West Virginia ending this season in a second-round flameout instead of in the Final Four is all in the point guard. Darryl Bryant played well for much of last season but showed he was unable to run a consistent offense in several big spots. If either he or Joe Mazzulla can get this offense flowing, there is enough talent for the ‘Neers to be scary good. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Villanova (13-5; 63.6): The Wildcats are the popular choice to win the Big East, and they may in fact do that, but they’ll need to first replace what Dwayne Anderson and Dante Cunningham took with them from last year’s team. Without those two to hit the glass, a lot of pressure falls on Mouphtaou Yarou, the 6-foot-9 freshman. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Georgetown (12-6; 68.0): I’m willing to chalk up the last two months of last season as merely an aberration for John Thompson III’s Hoyas. With a terrific nucleus returning — Greg Monroe, Austin Freeman, Chris Wright — and enough pieces around those three, the Hoyas are good enough to challenge for the Big East. NCAA No. 4 seed.

Connecticut (12-6; 37.9): Despite heavy losses, we should expect Jim Calhoun’s Huskies to be good immediately this winter. Kemba Walker and Jerome Dyson form a dynamic backcourt, while Stanley Robinson and some tantalizing young frontcourt talents will do the dirty work inside. No. 4 seed.

Louisville (11-7; 52.0): The Cardinals need Samardo Samuels to dominate in the post if they are to be an efficient offensive team. With so much experience in the backcourt and athleticism in the frontcourt, the defense should be typically strong. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Seton Hall (11-7; 82.9): Every year, Seton Hall exceeds its preseason projection, and this year should be no different. Bobby Gonzalez’s Pirates are picked 10th in the league despite losing only one key player — Paul Gause — and adding three impact transfers, notably Herb Pope and Keon Lawrence. It’s as if his fellow coaches are begging Gonzo to overachieve. NCAA No. 10 seed.

Cincinnati (10-8; 78.8): With Lance Stephenson now cleared to play, everything is in line for Cincinnati’s first NCAA Tournament berth as a member of the Big East. It’s easy to forget that point guard Cashmere Wright entered last preseason as one of the league’s top newcomers before tearing his knee and missing the season. He’s back now, too, along with Deonta Vaughn and enough good players that UC has few excuses not to make the Dance. NCAA No. 11 seed.

Pittsburgh (9-9; 35.2): It’s very hard to pick the Panthers to not make the field after being one of the consistently excellent teams in college basketball for nearly a decade. On the other hand, talent is talent, and while there are some good players here, it is a tall task to replace the three seniors plus DeJuan Blair, who all departed after last season. I nervously expect Jamie Dixon to make me look foolish. NIT.

Syracuse (9-9; 39.4): Like Pittsburgh, Syracuse also has a lot to replace. Jonny Flynn leaves the biggest hole, one that will be filled by someone who didn’t play for Syracuse last season — freshman Brandon Triche or Scoop Jardine, an injury red-shirt a year ago. The Orange frontcourt of Wesley Johnson, Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson is good enough to make SU an NCAA Tournament team if the point-guard situation sorts itself out. NIT.

Notre Dame (8-10; 55.5): With Luke Harangody back for a final season, the Irish find themselves on the edge of both preseason polls. The problem is that, with each passing year, Harangody has less and less talent around him. Tory Jackson, Ben Hansbrough and Jonathan Peoples make up a solid backcourt rotation, but what of Tyrone Nash in the frontcourt with Tim Abromaitis or maybe Carleton Scott? The loss of Purdue transfer Scott Martin was damaging, but this team didn’t do much for me even before that. NIT.

St. John’s (8-10; 96.4): If there ever was to be a year when Norm Roberts’ program was to make the leap, this is it. With a team full of experienced juniors and in a weakened league, this is the Red Storm’s chance to break into the top half of the league. The offense needs to be more efficient for that to happen. NIT.

Marquette (7-11; 33.6): The loss of Junior Cadougan to a season-ending ruptured Achilles really hurts a team that was already going to struggle to replace the best set of guards to ever form one class at Marquette. Lazar Hayward should put up all-league numbers, because 1) he’s really good, and 2) there aren’t any proven offensive options surrounding him. No postseason.

Providence (6-12; 34.5): The Friars enter the season with only three players who saw any action last season, and all are guards. That leaves large problems on the backboards, but at least the dynamic combination of Sharaud Curry and Marshon Brooks should excite the Friar faithful in Year 2 of the Keno Davis Era. No postseason.

South Florida (6-12; 70.1): Dominique Jones is very good, and Stan Heath has added former Ohio State point guard Anthony Crater as his backcourt mate. If Augustus Gilchrist can be the force many expect up front, the Bulls may have the start of something. No postseason.

Rutgers (5-13; 52.1): The Fred Hill tenure has never quite gotten off the ground despite the string of touted recruits that have landed in Piscataway. Mike Rosario and Greg Echenique will continue to carry the load for a team that has a very difficult time scoring. No postseason.

DePaul (4-14; 61.4): Jerry Wainwright couldn’t have gotten worse news for the short-term of his program than Dar Tucker’s departure, but at least the conference isn’t quite so strong, which makes back-to-back 0-18 seasons unlikely. No postseason.

Big Ten

Michigan State (13-5; 73.7): With a fully healthy Raymar Morgan, Michigan State will have that dynamic slasher that it lacked even in advancing to the national title game last season. That along with Kalin Lucas and a typically stout interior defense has Tom Izzo thinking about winning one additional game this season. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Purdue (13-5; 82.0): Perhaps I’m a fool for this Purdue team, because the Boilermakers were mild disappointments last season. If Matt Painter’s team doesn’t have the frontline talent necessary, a No. 1 seed will look silly in March, but I think a healthy Robbie Hummel plus JaJuan Johnson to go with the great man-to-man defense puts Purdue among the elite. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Ohio State (11-7; 87.8): Evan Turner is awesome — there isn’t much that he doesn’t do well, and there’s a good chance he’s the best player in the Big Ten. Ohio State will need to do a better job taking care of the ball and defending the three to finish this high. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Minnesota (10-8; 90.2): The Golden Gopher train ran out of steam with a 6-10 finish, but the two-year turnaround is still remarkable. Almost everyone is back from last year’s team, and Tubby Smith also adds two top-70 recruits. NCAA No. 5 seed.

Wisconsin (10-8; 79.6): Wisconsin just wins and wins and wins. After a six-game losing streak put last season in jeopardy, Bo Ryan’s team reeled off five straight wins, four by at least 10 points to sneak into the field. There, the Badgers, a No. 12 seed, knocked off No. 5 Florida State in overtime. Ryan does lose two-thirds of his frontcourt, but look for Keaton Nankivil to emerge as the next efficient low-post presence. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Michigan (9-9; 81.7): Like Tubby Smith, John Beilein needed just two years to take the Wolverines from also-rans to the NCAAs. Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims have become one of the league’s best 1-2 punches, and Beilein has surrounded them with good shooters and passers. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Illinois (9-9; 62.7): It was a good bounceback season for Bruce Weber but one that ended with a clank in the NCAA Tournament. Three key rotation players are gone, but Demetri McCamey and Mike Davis lead a solid group of returners to go with a strong recruiting class for a team that should be one of the league’s best defensively. NCAA No. 9 seed.

Northwestern (8-10; 78.7): This may be the Wildcats’ best shot yet to make the NCAAs, but they picked a tough year to crack the first division of the Big Ten. Kevin Coble is one of the best players in the league, and he gives Bill Carmody a go-to guy in an offensive style that doesn’t usually have one. If Carmody can develop a replacement for Craig Moore’s 3-point shooting, Northwestern could break the NCAA Tournament hex. NIT.

Indiana (7-11; 67.0): Tom Crean should have Indiana back to a level of competitiveness this year after last year’s dismal start. The Hoosiers add the best recruiting class in the Big Ten and transfer Jeremiah Rivers from Georgetown. Rivers will bring tough perimeter defense, but the offense, which was the biggest problem last year, will have to come from elsewhere. NIT.

Penn State (6-12; 56.1): The Nittany Lions were a tough snub from the NCAA Tournament last year, but they turned that negative into a positive by winning the NIT. With Jamelle Cornley and Stanley Pringle gone, Talor Battle is the one dependable offensive option left, and he has a decent shot to lead the conference in scoring. No postseason.

Iowa (3-15; 45.0): The tragic death of Jake Kelly’s sister took away Frank Lickliter’s best player (Kelly transferred closer to home at Indiana State). The Hawkeyes’ second best player, Jeff Peterson, also left the program, leaving Lickliter with not nearly enough to compete in a league this good. No postseason.

Pac-10

California (13-5; 93.9): Any year in which UCLA is not considered the Pac-10 favorite is going to be considered a down year for the league, but that’s through no fault of Mike Montgomery’s Bears. We should note that the core of Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson was all recruited by Montgomery’s predecessor Ben Braun, but it was Mike who got them into the NCAAs last year and who should take them further this March. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Washington (13-5; 66.4): After two straight disappointing seasons, Lorenzo Romar parlayed a dynamic freshman and the stout play of Jon Brockman into a Pac-10 championship. Brockman and guard Justin Dentmon are gone, but with Isaiah Thomas and Quincy Pondexter, the Huskies have a nucleus to remain near the top of the league. NCAA No. 5 seed.

UCLA (12-6; 37.4): For the first time since 2005, Ben Howland’s team didn’t win the league or make the Final Four, and he’s lost four starters off of that team. This should be the year, though, when the freshman that made last year’s recruiting class so highly considered — excepting the departed Jrue Holiday, of course — start to make an impact. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Arizona State (10-8; 54.2): James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph are gone, and they will be impossible to replace. But led by Derek Glasser, Rihards Kuksiks and Ty Abbott (currently injured but back soon), Herb Sendek has enough to keep this team competitive, and we all know he can coach ‘em up. NIT.

Arizona (9-9; 45.7): Sean Miller’s first year at Arizona could be tricky, with Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill gone from last year’s dubious at-large selection. Nic Wise is back, and Miller’s brought in a nice recruiting class, which should keep the Wildcats’ heads above water in a weakened Pac-10, but that might not be enough to get them in the NCAAs. NIT.

Washington State (9-9; 42.0): Ken Bone is Tony Bennett’s replacement in Pullman, after the latter put WSU basketball on the map. Bone will field a team that lost four of its top six players from last year’s NIT club. Sophomore Klay Thompson, though, is a star in the making. NIT.

Oregon State (8-10; 89.8): No team made the transformation Craig Robinson’s team did from November to March. An 0-4 start that included losses to three bad teams could not have predicted a sweep of Cal and Stanford, a 7-11 record in conference and a win in a postseason tournament (not that the CBI is much of a title). The 18 wins tripled the number from the previous season, and 18 would be a good goal this season, especially considering the Beavers entered the CBI with just 13 victories. NIT.

Oregon (7-11; 87.5): A year after being a questionable at-large selection to the 2008 NCAA Tournament, Ernie Kent’s team started 0-14 in conference last season. The problems were manifold, mainly a disinterested or simply incompetent defense. Most of that squad is back, and hopefully the returning players brought some defense back with them. Look for Michael Dunigan to break out. No postseason.

Southern Cal (5-13; 39.1): Kevin O’Neill enters an ugly situation in Los Angeles after what will now be considered a very dark era under Tim Floyd. The basketball was good, but the rules infractions embarrassing. This year’s team wasn’t going to bring back much anyway — Dwight Lewis heads the list of returners. No postseason.

Stanford (4-14; 39.5): Stanford started 10-0 in Johnny Dawkins’ first season, but the Cardinal struggled in conference play, going 6-12 thanks to a sieve-like defense. Much of that team has now departed, leaving Landry Fields, Josh Owens and a bunch of question marks. No postseason.

SEC

East

Tennessee (12-4; 100.0): The overwhelming choice to win the East is Kentucky, but here’s a vote for continuity and experience. With five seniors and one of the deepest benches in basketball, Bruce Pearl’s team may be better than the one that earned a No. 2 seed in 2008, though it would be hard-pressed to surpass that seed. The key will be getting the defense to get back to forcing turnovers or to excel in other areas. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Kentucky (11-5; 60.3): With Patrick Patterson and John Wall, there’s not a better 1-2 punch in the SEC, and the athleticism of this team is off the charts. If UK does indeed go 11-5 and get a No. 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, no top seed will want to see the Cats in its bracket. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Vanderbilt (9-7; 91.8): A winning record in the SEC East should be more than good enough to earn an NCAA bid this season, and the Commodores are prepared to do that. Jeffrey Taylor and A.J. Ogilvy are yet another terrific 1-2 punch to go with Wall-Patterson and Tyler Smith-Wayne Chism at Tennessee. With the arrival of John Jackson to go with Jermaine Beal and Brad Tinsley in the backcourt, Kevin Stallings has to be excited about the possibilities. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Florida (9-7; 62.6): With the additions of Kenny Boynton for offense and Georgetown transfer Vernon Macklin for defense and three starters returning, the Gators definitely have enough to be competitive. It seems unlikely, though, that Boynton will be able to replace all that Nick Calathes did or that Macklin can single-handedly make the defense passable. There will have to be improvements and extra contributions from other parts of the roster — I’m looking at you, Chandler Parsons — if Florida is to end its two-year NCAA Tournament drought. NCAA No. 10 seed.

South Carolina (8-8; 77.9): Devan Downey’s decision to return to Columbia means that the Gamecocks have a real shot to compete for an NCAA berth. The 5-foot-9 point guard will mean more to his team than any other SEC player because of what he can do on offense and defense and how much of the load he carries. There is experience and depth around him, which could get South Carolina that extra one or two wins it needed last year to play in the Big Dance. NCAA No. 12 seed.

Georgia (1-15; 61.8): Maybe I’m selling Mark Fox short in his first season, but that record speaks as much to the difficulty of the division as it does to Georgia’s roster. He’ll need more than just Howard Thompkins to compete in the SEC this year, and I’m not sure Fox has much more. No postseason.

West

Mississippi State (11-5; 97.3): Rick Stansbury returns every key contributor from the team that won its last six games to take the SEC Tournament and steal an NCAA bid. It also adds Renardo Sidney and John Riek, though the latter is probably more of a project. With Jarvis Varnado and Sidney in the paint, it’s hard to imagine opponents relishing the idea of going inside. NCAA No. 4 seed.

Mississippi (9-7; 68.6): While David Huertas did decide to go pro early, that 68.6 percent figure is a bit misleading, because Chris Warren missed most of the season with a knee injury suffered in December. The 5-10 point guard is simply one of the best guards in the country, able to handle a heavy offensive load and pester opponents on defense. If he is 100 percent, then Andy Kennedy can combine Warren with the SEC’s best freshman from a season ago, Terrico White, to form an awesome backcourt. Up front, there’s Murphy Holloway, who is efficient and can dominate the offensive glass. This was a difficult NCAA Tournament omission. NIT.

Alabama (7-9; 63.2): Despite Alonzo Gee’s graduation, there’s certainly enough talent in Tuscaloosa to make Anthony Grant’s first season a success. JaMychal Green was terrific as a freshman and should be one of the dominant offensive rebounders in college basketball this year. Mikhail Torrance was also a bright spot in a postseason-less season. The offense struggled, however, thanks in large part to Senario Hillman using too many possessions inefficiently. If Grant can pass some of Hillman’s possessions to Green and Torrance, and perhaps grab the occasional defensive rebound, the Tide should be in the mix. NIT.

Auburn (7-9; 59.2): Auburn’s lack of depth and size should prevent a second straight 20-win season, but the backcourt is good enough to keep Jeff Lebo’s team competitive, especially if they can continue to force turnovers and protect the ball like they did last season. No postseason.

Arkansas (6-10; 84.1): John Pelphrey’s freshman class was a hit last season, but, after knocking off Texas and Oklahoma before the start of conference play, the wins dried up against SEC opponents. It was nice of Courtney Fortson to take such a big load as a freshman, but he’ll need to cut down on turnovers (doable) and be more efficient with his shooting (we’ll see) for Arkansas’ offense to be good enough of NCAA consideration. We’ll also see if Arkansas’ defense can do a better job of field-goal defense. Only six of the 73 major-conference teams was worse in that area last year. No postseason.

LSU (6-10; 41.7): Without any recruits likely to make an immediate impact, it’s hard to see why this team was picked fourth by the media. The Tigers will desperately miss Marcus Thornton’s ability to take and make so many shots — big and small — and Chris Johnson’s defensive presence in the paint. If LSU does indeed finish here, it will mark the fourth time in five years the Tigers have placed either first or last in the SEC West. No postseason.

Mid-Majors

With mid-major stalwarts Xavier and Memphis changing coaches and losing key players and Gonzaga turning over much of its roster, the little guy does not have a standard bearer this winter. Butler might be that team, but watch out for Brigham Young out of the Mountain West. Either way, it seems more likely than not that next March will mark the second straight NCAA Tournament that there will be no mid-major teams in the Elite Eight.

Butler (Horizon; 100.0), No. 4 seed.
Brigham Young (Mountain West; 78.0), No. 5 seed.
Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley; 92.4), No. 7 seed.
Siena (MAAC; 78.9), No. 8 seed.
Tulsa (Conference USA; 80.2), No. 9 seed.
Dayton (Atlantic 10; 85.7), No. 9 seed.
Xavier (Atlantic 10; 51.1), No. 10 seed.
Memphis (Conference USA; 30.7), No. 11 seed.
Gonzaga (West Coast; 31.0), No. 11 seed.
Creighton (Missouri Valley; 71.4), No. 12 seed.
Niagara (MAAC; 84.0), No. 12 seed.
Utah State (WAC; 72.3), No. 12 seed.

* major-conference average for possessions returning is 65.0 percent.

The Big 12 also boasted the consensus player of the year last season in Blake Griffin. The athletic big man was unguardable down low, drawing more fouls than any other player in the country. He and freshman point guard Willie Warren helped the Sooners to a 25-1 start, but the Sooners stumbled into the NCAA Tournament. They reached the Elite Eight, nonetheless, losing there to national champion North Carolina by 12 points, the smallest margin of victory in UNC’s march to the title.

Missouri was the conference’s breakout team last winter. In Mike Anderson’s third season in Columbia, the Tigers finally got the 40 Minutes of Hell in place, becoming a sweltering pressing team led by DeMarre Carroll. Carroll, Leo Lyons and the rest of the 10-man rotation advanced to the Elite Eight with a 102-point effort against a Memphis team on a 27-game win streak.

A year after losing seven of its nine rotation players, Kansas still won the league title with a 14-2 record, albeit playing the easier Big 12 “North” schedule. With center Cole Aldrich in the middle, the Jayhawks were a suffocating interior defensive team. Though not nearly as good as the title team the year before, to go from the best team in the nation to maybe the 10th best team after such losses is remarkable.

The league’s only first-year coach, Travis Ford, turned his Cowboys’ 3-6 conference record into 9-6, and that six-game winning streak plus a conference tournament win over Oklahoma got Oklahoma State into the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2005. There, the Cowboys squeaked out a win over Tennessee before pushing No. 1 seed Pittsburgh in the second round.

There were two primary disappointments — Texas and Baylor. Texas started the season ranked seventh but lost 12 times to achieve just a No. 7 seed. The Longhorns never found a point guard and, as a result, dropped well off the efficient offensive rates of the previous two seasons when D.J. Augustine ran the show. Scott Drew’s Baylor team was considered a sleeper for the league title entering the season, but the Bears didn’t hold a single conference opponent to less than a point per possession and finished 5-11 in the league. Baylor did make a run to the Big 12 Tournament final, with wins over Kansas and Texas, as well as to the NIT final, but lost in both title games — to Missouri and Penn State respectively.

What you need to know: The Big 12 boasts the consensus No. 1 team in the nation entering this season in Kansas. The Jayhawks return every player who saw significant minutes last season, including Aldrich and point guard Sherron Collins, both first-team All-Big 12 performers last season. Bill Self’s Jayhawks are as big a favorite to win the title this year as North Carolina was last year.

Texas, unlike Kansas, actually lost players who played last season in A.J. Abrams and Connor Atchley, but the Longhorns may be the deepest team in the country. With the additions of Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton as well as Damion James’ decision to forego the NBA Draft, there are plenty of scorers, but the questions at point guards remain.

The next thing you need to know is who’s No. 3? And the answer is elusive. Missouri and Oklahoma both lost significant pieces off of last year’s team, while Texas A&M and Kansas State — middle of the pack teams a year ago — return a lot. Oklahoma State is also in the discussion, and all five teams could be in the NCAA Tournament in March.

Team that lost the most: For the first time since 1999, Nebraska didn’t have a losing Big 12 season, finishing 8-8. Eighteen wins and a .500 record in the conference were good accomplishments for Doc Sadler in his third year, but he has to hope this isn’t where his tenure peaks. The Cornhuskers were the very shortest team in all of college basketball last season, and it showed in their poor rebounding and inability to keep opponents off the line. Still, the experience and quickness did keep Nebraska in a lot of games, which may not be the case this year with 6-foot-5 Ade Dagundoro (who happened to be the tallest Husker of the five players most often on the floor for Sadler), sub-6-footers Cookie Miller and Steve Harley, and sharp-shooting Paul Velander all gone.

An honorable mention goes to Oklahoma, who, along with Blake Griffin, lost his brother, Tyler, off-guard Austin Johnson and the dynamic Juan Patillo. Unlike in Lincoln, Jeff Capel brings in a top-10 recruiting class and returns Warren. So, while there should be a dropoff from the Elite Eight appearance of a year, Oklahoma is likely to be an NCAA Tournament qualifier.

Other notable losses: Baylor has a lot to replace with three starters, including all-league guard Curtis Jerrells gone. Byron Eaton and Terrel Harris have graduated from Ford’s first club in Stillwater. Carroll, Lyons and Matt Lawrence won’t be back to help Missouri duplicate its success.

Team that returns the most: Kansas is the consensus No. 1 team in the nation for a reason. The Jayhawks return everyone from last year’s Big 12 championship-winning rotation. The big name is Aldrich, who may very well be the most influential player in the country. Bill Self would actually do well to get the big man more touches at the expense of Collins, who was not nearly as efficient last season. Marcus Morris and Tyshawn Taylor were the stars of last year’s top recruiting class, but they are just a sprinkling of the overall depth of this squad.

Colorado is another team that returns a lot, as Jeff Bzdelik tries to build something in Boulder. Cory Higgins is the scoring guard, and he has a good shot at making all-league teams should the Buffs emerge from the league’s lower third. Dwight Thorne is the other top returner, though none of the other many returners have done much to help Colorado get victories. Maybe that will change this year. If it does, expect the improvements to come from the offense, as there’s a lot of room for improved efficiency. Colorado scored at least a point per possession in just four of 17 games against conference opponents.

Team most impacted by newcomers: While all three of the traditional recruiting powers — Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas — plucked their share of top talent for this season, Rick Barnes’ Longhorns should see the biggest immediate impact.

The league’s top recruit is probably Bradley, who is heading to Texas. Though I have not heard the comparison made, Bradley’s description makes him seem a lot like Jrue Holiday to me. Holiday is a player who came to college with terrific defensive ability, which is rare in a prep guard. Holliday probably offered more point-guard skills than Bradley, but Avery should impact the Longhorns on both ends of the floor. With Bradley, Texas also adds Hamilton, one of the best prep wings in the country, who comes to Austin with a reputation as a big-time scorer. Wing Shawn Williams and waterbug point guard Jai Lucas, a transfer from Florida, also build upon a roster that may be the nation’s best from top to bottom. Lucas is not even on scholarship, and he won’t be eligible until second semester.

Kansas adds Xavier Henry to an already stocked roster. The 6-foot-6 shooting guard from Oklahoma City is big and strong for his position and can fill it up. Self also added Elijah Johnson, a terrific tempo-pushing guard, and Thomas Robinson, an elite athlete at the power forward position.

Unlike Texas and Kansas, Oklahoma has more minutes to replace, and the very large Keith Gallon should soak up some of them. Listed at 6-8 and 300 pounds, Gallon’s been described in a way that remains one of Oliver Miller — a bit rotund perhaps, but with good hands and good passing skills for a big man. Tommy Mason-Griffin is the other top recruit to Norman, a 5-11 guard who is very strong for his size and should see time both backing up Warren and beside him this winter.

Kansas State’s Wally Judge — a wiry 6-foot-9 leaper — Baylor’s Nolan Dennis, and Oklahoma State’s Karron Johnson and Raymond Penn are the other freshman who should have an immediate impact. I would also be remiss if I didn’t mention JuCo transfer Marquis Gilstrap, 6-7 forward who likes to play above the rim and was named the conference’s preseason newcomer of the year.

Team that will disappoint: Big 12 coaches picked Capel’s Sooners third in the preseason poll, but that looks optimistic. Warren should be one of the top point guards in the country, but it’s unclear where else the efficient offense will come from. None of the other rotation returners — Tony Crocker, Ryan Wright, Cade Davis — has shown the capability to take on a large offensive load, which puts the pressure on one of the talented newcomers to do so. We’ve mentioned Gallon, but it’s common for big men to take a year or two to become impact offensive players at the major-conference level. Also, the Sooners weren’t a great defensive rebounding team even with Blake Griffin, so one wonders what will happen now that he and Patillo are gone.

Team that will surprise: Mark Turgeon lost three key pieces from his second round NCAA Tournament team of two years ago, and yet the Aggies came back and won another 24 games and advanced to the second round of the NCAAs again. This team has two good players to replace — Josh Carter and Chinemelu Elonu — but the rest of the nine-man rotation returns, including the two players most involved in the offense — Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis. Add several interesting top-150 recruits, and Texas A&M should be able to outperform its fifth-place prediction.

Player due for a breakout: Missouri lost both Carroll and Lyons, who were heavily involved in the offense of last season’s Elite Eight team. Someone’s going to need to pick up that load, and J.T. Tiller is probably the best equipped to do so. He’s seen his per-game numbers get progressively better each of his first three seasons, and I expect an even larger improvement as a senior. Despite standing just 6-foot-3, Tiller does most of his business inside the arc, getting to the rim and to the line with proficiency. He’s also one of the great perimeter defenders in the Big 12, and he could grow into an all-league player this season.

Underrated player: I was originally going to peg Texas Tech’s Mike Singletary here, but he played just 23 minutes per game last season. He is a terrific rebounder and efficient high-volume scorer when he’s on the floor, which he should be a lot more often next year. Instead, my choice is LaceDarius Dunn. With that weird name and interesting shooting style, you think he’d be hard to underrate, but he failed to make any of the three All-Big 12 teams last spring. He’s an awesome shooter, hitting 38.8 percent of 281 attempts last season — that’s almost three makes per game. Dunn, though, has a more diverse game than he’s given credit for. He also made 54 percent of 157 2-point attempts and 117 free throws. The latter figure was second on the team, and both his offensive versatility. Moreover, Dunn is a very solid rebounder for a guy who is 6-4, he doesn’t turn the ball over, and he picks up his share of steals.

• Big 12 Bracket »

Where things stand: According to the latest Bracket Junkie, here is where the Big 12 teams stand going in to the conference tournament.

Locks:
Oklahoma (2)
Kansas (3)
Missouri (4)

Almost Home:
Texas A&M (7)
Oklahoma State (8)
Texas (8)

Conference Final and Pray:
Kansas State
Nebraska

Need Automatic Bid:
Everyone Else

One And Done?: The first thing to analyze is, could the three teams that are almost home be denied should enough things go the wrong way during conference tourney week? The first step in this process is always to analyze conference tourney upsets that likely will eat up extra at-large bids. With a loss to Cleveland State in the Horizon Conference Final, Butler most certainly fits the bill of an at-large stealer.

Others that may steal a bid:
Xavier
Memphis
Utah State
Davidson (already lost)
Creighton (already lost)

I think that of this group, and including Butler, one or two major-conference at-large bids will be lost. Should three or even possibly four bids be lost, many of the teams on the bubble will really be feeling the heat.

The next thing to analyze is how much would a first round loss potentially hurt a team.

Texas A&M comes in on quite a roll, having won eight of its last 11 games including two wins over Texas Tech, their first round opponent. Their final game of the year, a dominant win over a very good Missouri team really should have solidified a bid. A first-round loss to Texas Tech would be the first RPI 100+ loss for A&M this year, and while it wouldn’t be good it wouldn’t exactly kill the Aggies in comparison to other bubble teams. Their record against Division I teams would stand at 22-9, and I think that they would still have a very compelling case for an at-large. Verdict: Safe barring absolute disaster.

Oklahoma State has also made most of the right moves down the stretch, winning seven of its last 11 games. While lacking a marquee win over any of the top 3 teams in the conference, Oklahoma State’s worst loss of the season was on the road to the No. 73 RPI team (Baylor). The Cowboys also have a strong record against weaker opposition that very few teams in the nation can also claim. They have already blown out Iowa State this year and figure to do the same in the conference tourney. An unexpected upset though would leave them 20-11, and they will finally have a glaring loss with no signature win to match it. Still, with an RPI that likely would still be in the 30s, Oklahoma State would probably not have to worry too much. Verdict: Safe but don’t make the committee make a decision.

Texas is a team that came into the season with Final Four dreams, but now the Longhorns will have to pull off a few major upsets to avoid early-exit nightmares. Their offense has been the major issues, with D.J. Augustine’s departure after last season proving to be much more damaging than Kevin Durant’s exit the season before. But despite having 10 losses, the Longhorns also have wins against UCLA, Villanova, Wisconsin and Oklahoma. You’ll notice that three of those wins came before Christmas as Texas has regressed in conference. The Feb. 21 win over Oklahoma — despite Griffin’s early injury — gave Texas its final statement win, one that even a first-round loss to Colorado can’t erase. Verdict: Quality wins make Texas safer than even OSU or A&M.

Handicapping the field: The form team is clearly Kansas, a fact mitigated only slightly by the tournament being played in Oklahoma City. The Jayhawks went 14-2 in conference, including a convincing win at Griffin-less Oklahoma and a stunningly complete victory over Missouri in Lawrence. Bill Self’s team bounced back from a puzzling defeat at Texas Tech with an efficient second-half in a regular season-ending win over Texas. Nebraska is the potential quarterfinal opponent, and the Cornhuskers gave Kansas trouble in Lincoln before a six-point loss. KU took the matchup in Lawrence easily. A tournament title would give Kansas an outside shot at a No. 1 seed.

Despite its shaky form, Oklahoma still has to be the second choice, especially since OSU is one of the better matchups Oklahoma could hope for in the quarters, and that’s who the Sooners are likely to get. The small Cowboys did give Oklahoma problems in Saturday’s matchup in Norman, but Oklahoma figures to take advantage of its significant size advantage. A semifinal matchup with either Missouri or Texas A&M could spell trouble, though. Mizzou beat OU just a week ago, and A&M played OU close twice when the Sooners were playing their best ball. The likely A&M-Mizzou quarterfinal matchup would be a replay of the Aggies’ 10-point victory in College Station on Saturday. The other semifinal is likely to feature Kansas against either K-State or Texas, two teams that couldn’t hang with the Jayhawks for 40 minutes this season.

After OU, I’d put Missouri close behind and then a gap to Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State and Kansas State as the next choices in that order.