Orange impress on intriguing day of hoops

After perusing all of the scores from this weekend, I count 36 that were particularly meaningful, and I’m probably underselling others. While the opening weekend of the college basketball was exciting because it was new, we definitely learned a lot more over the last three days simply because there were games that could go either way. We saw the Big East get its first loss — four of them, in fact. We saw Big Ten teams place seventh and eighth in eight-team tournaments. And at Madison Square Garden on Friday, we saw Syracuse complete the most impressive two-game stretch of the season.

 

Most of the interesting games were on Friday, so, it’s Friday’s games that account for most of my words on this Monday. I’ll be looking at Saturday and Sunday in subsequent posts.

 

Friday

 

Syracuse’s 87-71 win over North Carolina headlined the night’s action and rightfully so. Syracuse is a team that lost Jonny Flynn and two other key players from last year’s Sweet 16 team, and prior to last season, Syracuse had narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament twice in a row, so the Orange no longer give off the scent of a program that can simply reload.

 

Enter Wesley Johnson. Well acknowledging that his length and diverse skillset would be a huge asset for a team lacking both, I was very cautious about those who saw Johnson as an immediate star and potential Big East Player of the Year in his first season at Syracuse after transferring from Iowa State. Johnson had 25 points and eight rebounds on Friday, and that doesn’t convey the length he adds to Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone.

 

Poss PPP eFG Turn Reb FTR
North Carolina 76 0.93 0.413 0.250 0.432 0.302
Syracuse 76 1.14 0.610 0.210 0.343 0.059

 

When you look at Syracuse’s figures above, notice that this one game is a replica of the Orange’s season thus far. Syracuse’s offense has been exceptional at hitting shots, especially 2-pointers — the Orange hit an incredible 59.6 against that imposing UNC frontcourt. The rest of the offensive for Syracuse, however, has been nothing special. Syracuse continues to turn the ball over too much, has not been great on the offensive glass and has not gotten to the line. It’s important to remember, though, that shooting is the overriding factor in an offense’s success and that the type of 2-pointers Syracuse has been making are not as beholden to fate as the 3-point shot. Read More »


Slap-happy Cats escape Mason thanks to unlikely shot

The Big East is still undefeated — now 35-0 — but the team picked to win the league nearly became the first to lose on Thursday afternoon. Nearly everything went wrong in the first 38 minutes for Villanova, but the final two were all right in the Wildcats’ 69-68 victory over George Mason in the Puerto Rico Tip-off.

 

Two freshmen, Maalik Wayns and Isaiah Armwood, hit 3-pointers in the last two possessions to bring Villanova back from a late five-point deficit with 1:42 to play. The basket was Armwood’s first of his career, and it came after he was forced into action thanks to severe foul trouble for Villanova’s frontcourt.

 

The fouls were the main thing that made this game a strange one.

 

Poss PPP eFG Turn Reb FTR
George Mason 70 0.97 0.436 0.200 0.242 0.574
Villanova 70 0.99 0.434 0.243 0.452 0.434

 

Those free-throw rates are borderline absurd. The two teams combined for 54 fouls committed. Nine players accumulated at least four fouls, including the four Villanova Wildcats who fouled out. Among those four were Antonio Pena, Taylor King and Maurice Sutton or, in other words, all the height in Villanova’s rotation since freshman Mouphtaou Yarou was sent back to Philly with a viral infection. Read More »


Atlantic 10 WIR: Wright, Dayton give league a statement win

In sum: Dayton did what it needed to do on Saturday. After falling behind early, Chris Wright led the Flyers to victory over Creighton in a crucial early-season matchup for the Flyers and their conference. Phil Martelli got his St. Joseph’s Hawks off on a positive start with an overtime victory over Philly foe Drexel. UMass had an ugly showing in Orlando, losing to UCF by 17. Meanwhile, Fordham is stretching the definition of mid-major after a pair of opening-weekend losses.

 

Team of the week: Dayton. On Friday, I openly wondered if Dayton’s offense would be good enough for the Flyers to become an elite team, rather than just a very solid top-40 team. Early returns are propitious. Last season, only two NCAA Tournament teams — Cleveland State and Morgan State — had worse team eFGs than Brian Gregory’s club, and Dayton was also poor at taking care of the ball, but both of those numbers turned around on Saturday.

 

Poss PPP eFG Turn Reb FTR
Creighton 73 1.10 0.552 0.178 0.254 0.276
Dayton 73 1.23 0.558 0.123 0.364 0.188

 

There’s a caveat. Creighton is not a very good defensive team, ranking 113th in the nation in defensive efficiency last season. It is strange, though, that the two defensive areas where Creighton is most proficient — forcing turnovers and holding opposing shooters to low percentages — were where Dayton flourished. The Bluejays were primarily a good 3-point defense team last year, and they did hold Dayton to just 33.3 percent. On the other hand, the Flyers still made nine 3-pointers and 59.5 percent of 2-pointers. Chris Wright shined with 26 points on 83.3 percent eFG. Read More »


Dayton, Bama host able opponents in openers

The best games on Saturday’s slate give us looks at two teams expected to be among the best mid-majors this season as well as a two-time defending conference champion attempting to bring its shooting form south of the Mason-Dixon against an opposing coach making his debut with a new school.

 

Creighton at Dayton (1 p.m. ET): I feel comfortable calling this the best matchup of the weekend in terms of the quality of the two teams. The problem is injuries. For Dayton, guard Rob Lowery is out, greatly diminishing the Flyers’ backcourt depth. Creighton will be without starting forward Justin Carter. The 6-foor-4 senior has a torn MCL. Casey Harriman and Chad Millard, who are expected to be key cogs in a small Creighton frontcourt may also be out.

 

Have I diminished the spectacle of this matchup enough yet? Let me rebuild it. Even without those players, this is a game featuring the coaches’ preseason pick to win the Atlantic 10 and finish second in the Missouri Valley. Read More »


Predicting many future events in one large analysis

Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:

 

ACC
Big 12
Big East
Big Ten
Pac-10
SEC
Mid-Majors

 

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

 

ACC

 

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »


Bubble Impact: Cincy, Georgetown suffer crippling road losses

In a league that has been criticized all season for having a soft underbelly, two Big East bubble teams went into the belly of the beast and didn’t live to tell about it. Cincinnati and Georgetown both blew second-half leads to lose to bottom-four Big East teams on Tuesday, and both now stare at very long roads to an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament.

 

Red Storm overcomes drought, stuns Hoyas: Georgetown may have escaped Villanova with a win on Saturday, but no one who watched that game would have accused the Hoyas of playing well. Still, a win is a win, and with St. John’s and DePaul upcoming, the Hoyas didn’t figure to need their best performances to get to 8-10 in conference. But St. John’s had been playing better ball of late, and the Red Storm would have nothing to lose, and SJU didn’t lose, defeating Georgetown, 59-56 in overtime. Read More »


Hoyas’ frantic comeback comes up just short in Syracuse

In another terrific chapter in the Georgetown-Syracuse rivalry tome that’s being written, the Hoyas will find no solace in the excitement their 98-94, overtime loss brought college basketball fans.

 

Anyone who watched the game couldn’t avoid Len Elmore mentioning how crucial the game was for Georgetown, who entered the game at 4-7 in the Big East. The Hoyas’ schedule strength means that they would be hard to keep out if they could just break even in conference play, and a win at Syracuse would have been a big step in that direction. But, in the wake of a loss, the Hoyas have to stretch their neck to see the path to the NCAAs. Read More »


Flyers win at Duquesne, try to put last year’s collapse in the past

While the best team in the league resides in Cincinnati, the biggest results in the Atlantic 10 this weekend came in Pittsburgh and Amherst. Dayton knocked Duquesne off of the list of conference unbeatens with a nine-point win on Saturday. The Flyers overcame 23 turnovers with great shooting (65 percent eFG). Dayton had a balanced attack with five players in double figures in a 78-69 win. On Saturday evening in Amherst, UMass took out Temple in a closely-fought battle. The Minuteman had seven more free throws and hit 11-of-23 3-pointers to overcome Dionte Chrismas’ 26 points and nine rebounds. In no surprise, Ricky Harris and Chris Lowe led the way. Read More »