The two conferences enter the last day of the challenge with three wins each. The Big Ten took a 3-0 lead in the series when it swept the 7:00 games on Tuesday night, Purdue pulling away from Wake Forest, 70-59, and Northwestern going down to Raleigh and schooling NC State, 65-53. This after Penn State squeaked past Virginia in Charlottesville on Monday night.

The ACC, though, is a resilient league, and the later tip-offs on Tuesday all went its way. Maryland visited hapless Indiana and won by 12. North Carolina hosted Michigan State in a rematch of April’s national title game, and the Tar Heels prevailed again behind Ed Davis, 89-82. Iowa hung with Virginia Tech for most of Tuesday’s final game, but the Hokies slipped away at the end, 70-64.

That brings us to Wednesday and the final five games. The Big Ten is host in three of them, but the ACC is favored in three. Based on the spreads of the game and an odds converter, the ACC is projected to win 2.54 games and the Big Ten is projected to win 2.46, which means the ACC has a 50.8-percent chance of winning the challenge to the Big Ten’s 49.2. It would be hard to set up something more even. Still, there are five games, so one conference must win more.

The ACC starts the night hosting a pair of 7:15 matchups where the home team is favored. (The spreads are there mainly to inform the percentage chances that each team wins and not for betting purposes.)

Illinois at Clemson (-4.5), 7:15 p.m.: The 4.5-point spread makes Clemson the pick to win about 66 percent of the time. The Illini enter off consecutive losses to mediocre Utah and Bradley squads on a neutral court. Illinois’ best win is over Wofford, and UofI is in desperate need of a big non-conference win before the Big Ten season. Clemson comes in of a one-point win over Butler after a fifth-place finish at the Anaheim Classic that included a somewhat surprising loss to Texas A&M. The Tigers force turnovers, and the Illini don’t commit them. If Illinois can hang on to the ball, this game should be close. I still give a solid edge to Clemson.

Minnesota at Miami (-2.5), 7:15 p.m.: The oddsmakers see this as the closest matchup of the night with the undefeated Hurricanes hosting the twice-beaten Gophers and the home team favored to win 57 percent of the time. The Canes’ only win against a quality opponent, though, came in the final of the Charleston Classic, a 15-point victory over South Carolina. Like Illinois, Minnesota enters off of two losses. The Gophers finished a disappointed fourth in the Anaheim Classic thanks to a five-point loss to Portland and a one-point loss to Texas A&M. Still, Minnesota has a terrific defense led by a rare combination of forcing turnovers and defending the rim on 2-pointers. This looks like a good place for the Big Ten to gain a balance-tilting victory.

Boston College at Michigan (-5), 7:30 p.m.: The scene shifts to the Midwest for the third game, where the Big Ten team, once again, enters off of a pair of losses, though Michigan is favored to win this one about 63 percent of the time. The Wolverines fell first to Marquette and then to Alabama in the Old Spice Classic and have not played up to their preseason ranking. Boston College has had its struggles as well, especially with an injury to Rakim Sanders, but the Eagles managed to pull out a tough road win at Providence on Saturday. If it can do it again on Wednesday, Al Skinner’s club will have given the ACC a huge edge. I still like Michigan at home and fairly comfortably.

Duke (-4.5) at Wisconsin, 9:15 p.m.: Duke comes to Madison off the title in the NIT Season Tip-off and is favored to win this matchup 66 percent of the time, the only road favorite of the night. The Blue Devils made quick work of Connecticut in the final in New York, while Wisconsin played well in finishing third at the Maui Invitational last week. This appears to be another Bo Ryan team that will play terrific field-goal defense and shut down that glass, and that’s a good thing because Duke, led by Brian Zoubek, has been thriving on offensive rebounds. Duke’s size has been surprisingly effective this season, as the Blue Devils have had terrific field-goal defense, notably on 2-pointers, and defending them was a struggle last season. Wisconsin will need big games from Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil to have the Blue Devils their first defeat.

Florida State at Ohio State (-6.5), 9:30 p.m.: Should the Big Ten enter the final round of games with five wins, the oddsmakers like the league’s chances of putting away their first Challenge in Columbus where the Buckeyes are the biggest favorites in this five-game slate, expected to win about 73 percent of the time. It’s a mild surprise that OSU is such a big favorite considering its only win of note was over a short-handed Cal team, and the Buckeyes were overmatched by UNC for most of a loss whose four-point margin was smaller than the difference between the two teams on that night.

Florida State recovered nicely from a 16-point shellacking to in-state rival Florida, winning the Old Spice Classic with a come-from-behind victory over Marquette on Sunday, despite trailing by 17 in the second half. Whoever wins inside should win the game, as Florida State has the seventh best interior defense in the country (opponents shoot 37.0 percent on 2-pointers) thanks to three players who already have reached double figures in blocks. Led by Evan Turner’s 65.3 percent shooting on 2-pointers, Ohio State has the third best two-point percentage in the country at 60.3 percent. Something’s got to give. I’ll give OSU a slight edge, smaller than what the oddsmakers think.

• ACC
• Big 12
• Big East
• Big Ten
• Pac-10
• SEC
• Mid-Majors

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

ACC

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed.

North Carolina (10-6; 28.7): The preseason rankings of this UNC team do seem a bit lofty considering the lack of experience in Chapel Hill, but the talent is certainly there. Roy Williams can throw Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, Tyler Zeller and freshman John Henson into a potentially lethal frontcourt. If the guard play is good enough to run UNC’s up-and-down attack, this team could be ready to win big soon. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Maryland (10-6; 86.9): The Terrapins have been off the national radar for a few years, but Gary Williams has a team good enough to matter again. Led by Greivis Vasquez, the backcourt is terrific, but the lack of size in the frontcourt should keep Maryland from being an elite team. NCAA No. 5 seed.

Clemson (10-6; 57.2): The Tigers have become the college basketball version of Ohio State. There’s not a lot of respect for Oliver Purnell’s team after another fast start followed by a long, slow fade, but the Tigers have brought in a very good recruiting class to surround Trevor Booker and Demontez Stitt. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Georgia Tech (9-7; 69.8): With Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors, there aren’t a lot of frontcourts excited about matching up with the Yellow Jackets. But the recent underachieving seasons will haunt Paul Hewitt unless he can turn this team into a top-20 club. The talent is definitely there. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Florida State (8-8; 64.0): Toney Douglas may have been the most valuable player in the ACC last season, and he’s gone, but Leonard Hamilton has brought in a stud recruit — Michael Snaer — and returns most of the rest of the team that achieved a No. 5 seed in last year’s tournament. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Wake Forest (8-8; 56.9): The Deacons’ two best players are gone, but a couple of great recruiting classes made sure that plenty of talent remains. This needs to be the year that Al-Farouq Aminu emerges as a force for WF to place this high. NCAA No. 9 seed.

Boston College (7-9; 77.1): Everyone’s back but Tyrese Rice, and some consider that departure a blessing, but the Eagles will be hard-pressed to replace everything he did on offense. And that’s important, considering how offense-dependent Al Skinner’s teams tend to be. If they can spread Rice’s load around efficiently, the Eagles will be in position to make another NCAA Tournament. NIT.

Virginia Tech (7-9; 66.9): Seth Greenberg has had teams good enough to make the NCAAs the last two seasons and come up just short. This team brings back three starters and is certainly good enough to get in the field, but there is just so much competition in the league. Much like last season with FSU, who entered it with lowered expectations after a couple of recent near misses, VaTech may surprise and nab a bid this season. NIT.

Miami (6-10; 48.3): Last year was the year for Frank Haith to get the Hurricanes into the Sweet 16, but things fell apart in conference play. There’s still enough returning to be competitive but more than enough holes to think the NCAA Tournament isn’t in the near future. NIT.

Virginia (6-10; 90.6): The Cavs will be better this season, but there doesn’t appear to be enough depth in the talent base to support Sylvan Landesburg and make UVa truly competitive. An NIT bid would be a terrific accomplishment, but I think the Cavaliers end up just short. No postseason.

North Carolina State (3-13; 47.1): The bar is so low for Sidney that even a 10th- or 11th-place finish would be a pleasant surprise. The Wolfpack does have a nice recruiting class coming in, but the best of the bunch — Lorenzo Brown — will be spending the year in prep school. No postseason.

Big 12

Kansas (14-2; 100.0): There aren’t any questions left about whether Bill Self can win big, and there aren’t many questions about the talent in Lawrence. Much like UNC a year ago, this team will be judged by what it does in March, even if a 30-win season precedes the NCAAs. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Texas (12-4; 75.1): After underachieving last season, Rick Barnes brings back about as stacked a team as you’ll see in college basketball. With Dexter Pittman and Damion James in the frontcourt and Avery Bradley in the backcourt, this team will be a handful on both ends of the floor. Oh, and there are 11 other players good enough to see ample run. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Texas A&M (10-6; 72.1): The Big 12’s consistent overachievers, Mark Turgeon’s Aggies have enough experience to make them an annoyance for the league’s best teams, especially if they’re able to weather the loss of Chinemelu Elonu to the NBA. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Kansas State (10-6; 66.4): The folks in Manhattan have now been witnesses to three straight 20-win seasons, and this team may be the best of the bunch. With Denis Clemente running the show and plenty of talent around him, Frank Martin should get the Wildcats back to the NCAAs for the second time in three seasons. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Oklahoma (9-7; 39.3): This is Willie Warren’s show now, and the point guard is good enough to get this team into the NCAA Tournament with minimal help. The Sooners will struggle on the glass, but Jeff Capel should have them back in the NCAAs again nevertheless. NCAA No. 10 seed.

Oklahoma State (8-8; 54.3): Travis Ford lost four players from last year’s rotation, but James Anderson returns along with a terrific set of newcomers. It took OSU time to get used to Ford’s system, but a year in, the Cowboys should avoid last year’s slow start even with less experience. NCAA No. 11 seed.

Missouri (8-8; 55.6): The losses of Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll are massive, but Missouri is built on depth, and the Tigers should have enough to hang around NCAA consideration this winter. It will be up to J.T. Tiller and Zaire Taylor to handle a much larger load on offense. NIT.

Baylor (6-10; 44.2): The Bears were expected to compete for the Sweet 16 last season but ended up in the NIT final. This year, Scott Drew has to replace a lot of talent and experience with three starters gone. LaceDarius Dunn’s emergence as a star is Step No. 1 toward the Bears competing for an NCAA bid. NIT.

Iowa State (6-10; 77.1): Greg McDermott expects to have his best team in Ames, but, considering he hasn’t won more than six league games in any of his first three seasons, “best” doesn’t really mean a lot. Without someone to help out Craig Brackins, the Cyclones’ offense will continue to come up short. NIT.

Texas Tech (4-12; 71.2): Pat Knight implemented a new run-and-gun system, but a 3-13 record showed that it paid few dividends. Knight has some nice pieces, including Mike Singletary, coming back, but his team will need to be better than “nice” to compete with that Big 12 South schedule. No postseason.

Colorado (4-12; 89.7): This would appear to be a good opportunity for Jeff Bzdelik to set a tenure-high in conference wins. The Buffaloes have won just four Big 12 games in Bzdelik’s first two years, and I predict they will match that this season. We’ll see whether Year 3 has talent ready to complement Cory Higgins. No postseason.

Nebraska (4-12; 39.1): Few coaches lost as much as Doc Sadler did in Lincoln, and it’ll be hard to put together a competitive roster with a lack of impact recruits. Finishing in the league’s top 10 would be a noteworthy accomplishment for this group this winter. No postseason.

Big East

West Virginia (14-4; 81.8): The difference between West Virginia ending this season in a second-round flameout instead of in the Final Four is all in the point guard. Darryl Bryant played well for much of last season but showed he was unable to run a consistent offense in several big spots. If either he or Joe Mazzulla can get this offense flowing, there is enough talent for the ‘Neers to be scary good. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Villanova (13-5; 63.6): The Wildcats are the popular choice to win the Big East, and they may in fact do that, but they’ll need to first replace what Dwayne Anderson and Dante Cunningham took with them from last year’s team. Without those two to hit the glass, a lot of pressure falls on Mouphtaou Yarou, the 6-foot-9 freshman. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Georgetown (12-6; 68.0): I’m willing to chalk up the last two months of last season as merely an aberration for John Thompson III’s Hoyas. With a terrific nucleus returning — Greg Monroe, Austin Freeman, Chris Wright — and enough pieces around those three, the Hoyas are good enough to challenge for the Big East. NCAA No. 4 seed.

Connecticut (12-6; 37.9): Despite heavy losses, we should expect Jim Calhoun’s Huskies to be good immediately this winter. Kemba Walker and Jerome Dyson form a dynamic backcourt, while Stanley Robinson and some tantalizing young frontcourt talents will do the dirty work inside. No. 4 seed.

Louisville (11-7; 52.0): The Cardinals need Samardo Samuels to dominate in the post if they are to be an efficient offensive team. With so much experience in the backcourt and athleticism in the frontcourt, the defense should be typically strong. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Seton Hall (11-7; 82.9): Every year, Seton Hall exceeds its preseason projection, and this year should be no different. Bobby Gonzalez’s Pirates are picked 10th in the league despite losing only one key player — Paul Gause — and adding three impact transfers, notably Herb Pope and Keon Lawrence. It’s as if his fellow coaches are begging Gonzo to overachieve. NCAA No. 10 seed.

Cincinnati (10-8; 78.8): With Lance Stephenson now cleared to play, everything is in line for Cincinnati’s first NCAA Tournament berth as a member of the Big East. It’s easy to forget that point guard Cashmere Wright entered last preseason as one of the league’s top newcomers before tearing his knee and missing the season. He’s back now, too, along with Deonta Vaughn and enough good players that UC has few excuses not to make the Dance. NCAA No. 11 seed.

Pittsburgh (9-9; 35.2): It’s very hard to pick the Panthers to not make the field after being one of the consistently excellent teams in college basketball for nearly a decade. On the other hand, talent is talent, and while there are some good players here, it is a tall task to replace the three seniors plus DeJuan Blair, who all departed after last season. I nervously expect Jamie Dixon to make me look foolish. NIT.

Syracuse (9-9; 39.4): Like Pittsburgh, Syracuse also has a lot to replace. Jonny Flynn leaves the biggest hole, one that will be filled by someone who didn’t play for Syracuse last season — freshman Brandon Triche or Scoop Jardine, an injury red-shirt a year ago. The Orange frontcourt of Wesley Johnson, Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson is good enough to make SU an NCAA Tournament team if the point-guard situation sorts itself out. NIT.

Notre Dame (8-10; 55.5): With Luke Harangody back for a final season, the Irish find themselves on the edge of both preseason polls. The problem is that, with each passing year, Harangody has less and less talent around him. Tory Jackson, Ben Hansbrough and Jonathan Peoples make up a solid backcourt rotation, but what of Tyrone Nash in the frontcourt with Tim Abromaitis or maybe Carleton Scott? The loss of Purdue transfer Scott Martin was damaging, but this team didn’t do much for me even before that. NIT.

St. John’s (8-10; 96.4): If there ever was to be a year when Norm Roberts’ program was to make the leap, this is it. With a team full of experienced juniors and in a weakened league, this is the Red Storm’s chance to break into the top half of the league. The offense needs to be more efficient for that to happen. NIT.

Marquette (7-11; 33.6): The loss of Junior Cadougan to a season-ending ruptured Achilles really hurts a team that was already going to struggle to replace the best set of guards to ever form one class at Marquette. Lazar Hayward should put up all-league numbers, because 1) he’s really good, and 2) there aren’t any proven offensive options surrounding him. No postseason.

Providence (6-12; 34.5): The Friars enter the season with only three players who saw any action last season, and all are guards. That leaves large problems on the backboards, but at least the dynamic combination of Sharaud Curry and Marshon Brooks should excite the Friar faithful in Year 2 of the Keno Davis Era. No postseason.

South Florida (6-12; 70.1): Dominique Jones is very good, and Stan Heath has added former Ohio State point guard Anthony Crater as his backcourt mate. If Augustus Gilchrist can be the force many expect up front, the Bulls may have the start of something. No postseason.

Rutgers (5-13; 52.1): The Fred Hill tenure has never quite gotten off the ground despite the string of touted recruits that have landed in Piscataway. Mike Rosario and Greg Echenique will continue to carry the load for a team that has a very difficult time scoring. No postseason.

DePaul (4-14; 61.4): Jerry Wainwright couldn’t have gotten worse news for the short-term of his program than Dar Tucker’s departure, but at least the conference isn’t quite so strong, which makes back-to-back 0-18 seasons unlikely. No postseason.

Big Ten

Michigan State (13-5; 73.7): With a fully healthy Raymar Morgan, Michigan State will have that dynamic slasher that it lacked even in advancing to the national title game last season. That along with Kalin Lucas and a typically stout interior defense has Tom Izzo thinking about winning one additional game this season. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Purdue (13-5; 82.0): Perhaps I’m a fool for this Purdue team, because the Boilermakers were mild disappointments last season. If Matt Painter’s team doesn’t have the frontline talent necessary, a No. 1 seed will look silly in March, but I think a healthy Robbie Hummel plus JaJuan Johnson to go with the great man-to-man defense puts Purdue among the elite. NCAA No. 1 seed.

Ohio State (11-7; 87.8): Evan Turner is awesome — there isn’t much that he doesn’t do well, and there’s a good chance he’s the best player in the Big Ten. Ohio State will need to do a better job taking care of the ball and defending the three to finish this high. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Minnesota (10-8; 90.2): The Golden Gopher train ran out of steam with a 6-10 finish, but the two-year turnaround is still remarkable. Almost everyone is back from last year’s team, and Tubby Smith also adds two top-70 recruits. NCAA No. 5 seed.

Wisconsin (10-8; 79.6): Wisconsin just wins and wins and wins. After a six-game losing streak put last season in jeopardy, Bo Ryan’s team reeled off five straight wins, four by at least 10 points to sneak into the field. There, the Badgers, a No. 12 seed, knocked off No. 5 Florida State in overtime. Ryan does lose two-thirds of his frontcourt, but look for Keaton Nankivil to emerge as the next efficient low-post presence. NCAA No. 7 seed.

Michigan (9-9; 81.7): Like Tubby Smith, John Beilein needed just two years to take the Wolverines from also-rans to the NCAAs. Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims have become one of the league’s best 1-2 punches, and Beilein has surrounded them with good shooters and passers. NCAA No. 8 seed.

Illinois (9-9; 62.7): It was a good bounceback season for Bruce Weber but one that ended with a clank in the NCAA Tournament. Three key rotation players are gone, but Demetri McCamey and Mike Davis lead a solid group of returners to go with a strong recruiting class for a team that should be one of the league’s best defensively. NCAA No. 9 seed.

Northwestern (8-10; 78.7): This may be the Wildcats’ best shot yet to make the NCAAs, but they picked a tough year to crack the first division of the Big Ten. Kevin Coble is one of the best players in the league, and he gives Bill Carmody a go-to guy in an offensive style that doesn’t usually have one. If Carmody can develop a replacement for Craig Moore’s 3-point shooting, Northwestern could break the NCAA Tournament hex. NIT.

Indiana (7-11; 67.0): Tom Crean should have Indiana back to a level of competitiveness this year after last year’s dismal start. The Hoosiers add the best recruiting class in the Big Ten and transfer Jeremiah Rivers from Georgetown. Rivers will bring tough perimeter defense, but the offense, which was the biggest problem last year, will have to come from elsewhere. NIT.

Penn State (6-12; 56.1): The Nittany Lions were a tough snub from the NCAA Tournament last year, but they turned that negative into a positive by winning the NIT. With Jamelle Cornley and Stanley Pringle gone, Talor Battle is the one dependable offensive option left, and he has a decent shot to lead the conference in scoring. No postseason.

Iowa (3-15; 45.0): The tragic death of Jake Kelly’s sister took away Frank Lickliter’s best player (Kelly transferred closer to home at Indiana State). The Hawkeyes’ second best player, Jeff Peterson, also left the program, leaving Lickliter with not nearly enough to compete in a league this good. No postseason.

Pac-10

California (13-5; 93.9): Any year in which UCLA is not considered the Pac-10 favorite is going to be considered a down year for the league, but that’s through no fault of Mike Montgomery’s Bears. We should note that the core of Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson was all recruited by Montgomery’s predecessor Ben Braun, but it was Mike who got them into the NCAAs last year and who should take them further this March. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Washington (13-5; 66.4): After two straight disappointing seasons, Lorenzo Romar parlayed a dynamic freshman and the stout play of Jon Brockman into a Pac-10 championship. Brockman and guard Justin Dentmon are gone, but with Isaiah Thomas and Quincy Pondexter, the Huskies have a nucleus to remain near the top of the league. NCAA No. 5 seed.

UCLA (12-6; 37.4): For the first time since 2005, Ben Howland’s team didn’t win the league or make the Final Four, and he’s lost four starters off of that team. This should be the year, though, when the freshman that made last year’s recruiting class so highly considered — excepting the departed Jrue Holiday, of course — start to make an impact. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Arizona State (10-8; 54.2): James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph are gone, and they will be impossible to replace. But led by Derek Glasser, Rihards Kuksiks and Ty Abbott (currently injured but back soon), Herb Sendek has enough to keep this team competitive, and we all know he can coach ‘em up. NIT.

Arizona (9-9; 45.7): Sean Miller’s first year at Arizona could be tricky, with Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill gone from last year’s dubious at-large selection. Nic Wise is back, and Miller’s brought in a nice recruiting class, which should keep the Wildcats’ heads above water in a weakened Pac-10, but that might not be enough to get them in the NCAAs. NIT.

Washington State (9-9; 42.0): Ken Bone is Tony Bennett’s replacement in Pullman, after the latter put WSU basketball on the map. Bone will field a team that lost four of its top six players from last year’s NIT club. Sophomore Klay Thompson, though, is a star in the making. NIT.

Oregon State (8-10; 89.8): No team made the transformation Craig Robinson’s team did from November to March. An 0-4 start that included losses to three bad teams could not have predicted a sweep of Cal and Stanford, a 7-11 record in conference and a win in a postseason tournament (not that the CBI is much of a title). The 18 wins tripled the number from the previous season, and 18 would be a good goal this season, especially considering the Beavers entered the CBI with just 13 victories. NIT.

Oregon (7-11; 87.5): A year after being a questionable at-large selection to the 2008 NCAA Tournament, Ernie Kent’s team started 0-14 in conference last season. The problems were manifold, mainly a disinterested or simply incompetent defense. Most of that squad is back, and hopefully the returning players brought some defense back with them. Look for Michael Dunigan to break out. No postseason.

Southern Cal (5-13; 39.1): Kevin O’Neill enters an ugly situation in Los Angeles after what will now be considered a very dark era under Tim Floyd. The basketball was good, but the rules infractions embarrassing. This year’s team wasn’t going to bring back much anyway — Dwight Lewis heads the list of returners. No postseason.

Stanford (4-14; 39.5): Stanford started 10-0 in Johnny Dawkins’ first season, but the Cardinal struggled in conference play, going 6-12 thanks to a sieve-like defense. Much of that team has now departed, leaving Landry Fields, Josh Owens and a bunch of question marks. No postseason.

SEC

East

Tennessee (12-4; 100.0): The overwhelming choice to win the East is Kentucky, but here’s a vote for continuity and experience. With five seniors and one of the deepest benches in basketball, Bruce Pearl’s team may be better than the one that earned a No. 2 seed in 2008, though it would be hard-pressed to surpass that seed. The key will be getting the defense to get back to forcing turnovers or to excel in other areas. NCAA No. 2 seed.

Kentucky (11-5; 60.3): With Patrick Patterson and John Wall, there’s not a better 1-2 punch in the SEC, and the athleticism of this team is off the charts. If UK does indeed go 11-5 and get a No. 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, no top seed will want to see the Cats in its bracket. NCAA No. 3 seed.

Vanderbilt (9-7; 91.8): A winning record in the SEC East should be more than good enough to earn an NCAA bid this season, and the Commodores are prepared to do that. Jeffrey Taylor and A.J. Ogilvy are yet another terrific 1-2 punch to go with Wall-Patterson and Tyler Smith-Wayne Chism at Tennessee. With the arrival of John Jackson to go with Jermaine Beal and Brad Tinsley in the backcourt, Kevin Stallings has to be excited about the possibilities. NCAA No. 6 seed.

Florida (9-7; 62.6): With the additions of Kenny Boynton for offense and Georgetown transfer Vernon Macklin for defense and three starters returning, the Gators definitely have enough to be competitive. It seems unlikely, though, that Boynton will be able to replace all that Nick Calathes did or that Macklin can single-handedly make the defense passable. There will have to be improvements and extra contributions from other parts of the roster — I’m looking at you, Chandler Parsons — if Florida is to end its two-year NCAA Tournament drought. NCAA No. 10 seed.

South Carolina (8-8; 77.9): Devan Downey’s decision to return to Columbia means that the Gamecocks have a real shot to compete for an NCAA berth. The 5-foot-9 point guard will mean more to his team than any other SEC player because of what he can do on offense and defense and how much of the load he carries. There is experience and depth around him, which could get South Carolina that extra one or two wins it needed last year to play in the Big Dance. NCAA No. 12 seed.

Georgia (1-15; 61.8): Maybe I’m selling Mark Fox short in his first season, but that record speaks as much to the difficulty of the division as it does to Georgia’s roster. He’ll need more than just Howard Thompkins to compete in the SEC this year, and I’m not sure Fox has much more. No postseason.

West

Mississippi State (11-5; 97.3): Rick Stansbury returns every key contributor from the team that won its last six games to take the SEC Tournament and steal an NCAA bid. It also adds Renardo Sidney and John Riek, though the latter is probably more of a project. With Jarvis Varnado and Sidney in the paint, it’s hard to imagine opponents relishing the idea of going inside. NCAA No. 4 seed.

Mississippi (9-7; 68.6): While David Huertas did decide to go pro early, that 68.6 percent figure is a bit misleading, because Chris Warren missed most of the season with a knee injury suffered in December. The 5-10 point guard is simply one of the best guards in the country, able to handle a heavy offensive load and pester opponents on defense. If he is 100 percent, then Andy Kennedy can combine Warren with the SEC’s best freshman from a season ago, Terrico White, to form an awesome backcourt. Up front, there’s Murphy Holloway, who is efficient and can dominate the offensive glass. This was a difficult NCAA Tournament omission. NIT.

Alabama (7-9; 63.2): Despite Alonzo Gee’s graduation, there’s certainly enough talent in Tuscaloosa to make Anthony Grant’s first season a success. JaMychal Green was terrific as a freshman and should be one of the dominant offensive rebounders in college basketball this year. Mikhail Torrance was also a bright spot in a postseason-less season. The offense struggled, however, thanks in large part to Senario Hillman using too many possessions inefficiently. If Grant can pass some of Hillman’s possessions to Green and Torrance, and perhaps grab the occasional defensive rebound, the Tide should be in the mix. NIT.

Auburn (7-9; 59.2): Auburn’s lack of depth and size should prevent a second straight 20-win season, but the backcourt is good enough to keep Jeff Lebo’s team competitive, especially if they can continue to force turnovers and protect the ball like they did last season. No postseason.

Arkansas (6-10; 84.1): John Pelphrey’s freshman class was a hit last season, but, after knocking off Texas and Oklahoma before the start of conference play, the wins dried up against SEC opponents. It was nice of Courtney Fortson to take such a big load as a freshman, but he’ll need to cut down on turnovers (doable) and be more efficient with his shooting (we’ll see) for Arkansas’ offense to be good enough of NCAA consideration. We’ll also see if Arkansas’ defense can do a better job of field-goal defense. Only six of the 73 major-conference teams was worse in that area last year. No postseason.

LSU (6-10; 41.7): Without any recruits likely to make an immediate impact, it’s hard to see why this team was picked fourth by the media. The Tigers will desperately miss Marcus Thornton’s ability to take and make so many shots — big and small — and Chris Johnson’s defensive presence in the paint. If LSU does indeed finish here, it will mark the fourth time in five years the Tigers have placed either first or last in the SEC West. No postseason.

Mid-Majors

With mid-major stalwarts Xavier and Memphis changing coaches and losing key players and Gonzaga turning over much of its roster, the little guy does not have a standard bearer this winter. Butler might be that team, but watch out for Brigham Young out of the Mountain West. Either way, it seems more likely than not that next March will mark the second straight NCAA Tournament that there will be no mid-major teams in the Elite Eight.

Butler (Horizon; 100.0), No. 4 seed.
Brigham Young (Mountain West; 78.0), No. 5 seed.
Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley; 92.4), No. 7 seed.
Siena (MAAC; 78.9), No. 8 seed.
Tulsa (Conference USA; 80.2), No. 9 seed.
Dayton (Atlantic 10; 85.7), No. 9 seed.
Xavier (Atlantic 10; 51.1), No. 10 seed.
Memphis (Conference USA; 30.7), No. 11 seed.
Gonzaga (West Coast; 31.0), No. 11 seed.
Creighton (Missouri Valley; 71.4), No. 12 seed.
Niagara (MAAC; 84.0), No. 12 seed.
Utah State (WAC; 72.3), No. 12 seed.

* major-conference average for possessions returning is 65.0 percent.

Bracketing challenges: The most difficult team to place in this bracket was Purdue. On Tuesday, the Boilermakers lost at Ohio State in overtime without their best player — Robbie Hummel. It’s the second time Purdue has lost a close game on the road without the sophomore star. Usually those losses would be discounted slightly with the expectation that Purdue will have a full-strength Hummel by the time March comes around. The problem with that assumption is that Hummel is suffering from a stress fracture in his back, an injury that won’t fully heal until the offseason. Hummel is expected to be day-to-day from here until Purdue’s final game of the season. Because of the chronic nature of the injury, I’m treating those losses as if they were full-strength losses — with a slight discount for the Penn State loss, because Purdue was without Chris Kramer for that game. Losing close road games to Penn State and Ohio State is not particularly egregious — certainly better than Michigan State’s home losses to Penn State and Northwestern — but Purdue would probably be listed as a No. 4 seed if doctors expected Hummel to be fully healthy by March. Instead, the Boilermakers are the top No. 5 seed on my board.

Note: San Diego State is in the field as an automatic bid from the Mountain West after winning at UNLV on Tuesday. The Aztecs would be right between Baylor and Southern Cal in the “Last In” list if they were considered an at-large.

The Bubble: The bubble was a little awkward this week because of several results in conference play. Even with San Diego State’s inclusion as an automatic, the standard for inclusion in the field on Friday feels less stringent than it did on Monday thanks to many losses by teams around the bubble. In the end, I’m very comfortable with the top 32 at-large teams. It’s the last two — Baylor and Michigan — that I could take or leave.

Michigan’s impressive win over Penn State put both teams right around the cut mark. Because of the Wolverines’ win Thursday and their more impressive play out of conference — wins over Duke and UCLA — they’re in and the Nittany Lions are out, not that it was necessarily and either/or proposition. Baylor is running out of reprieves. Scott Drew’s team has now lost four straight games, all against teams seeded No. 7 or better in this projection. Baylor now enters a stretch of five games — at Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, at Oklahoma State, at Iowa State — where the Bears will need to win at least three to stay in the field.

On the other side of the bubble, Texas A&M was this close to knocking off Oklahoma on the road but came up just short. A win would have done for A&M what it did for Miami (see below). The Aggies now host Kansas State on Saturday in a massive game for two teams struggling to get in the field. The Wildcats won again — at home against Iowa State — but that simply hurt K-State’s RPI more. At 80, the Wildcats’ RPI is too high to justify inclusion in the field. Get in the top 70 and then we’ll talk. A win at A&M may do just that. We’ll discuss Kentucky and UNLV in the “Moving Out” section, but I’ll close with a note on Arizona, which has now won four straight games after squeaking by Oregon State by three at Corvallis. Another win at conference-winless Oregon on Saturday will set up a huge weekend next weekend when USC and UCLA come to Tucson. Split those games, and the Wildcats might be in.

Moving in: We’ve already hit on Michigan, which now faces Connecticut and Michigan State. The Wolverines are so close to the cut line that, even if they didn’t play a game between now and the next projection, they could be bumped out. So, Michigan fans shouldn’t consider it a punishment for losing at the No. 1 team in the nation should UM fall out of the field on Monday. Miami (Fla.) is the other new at-large team, as the Hurricanes jumped all the way up to a No. 8 seed with a 27-point home win over Wake Forest. The win halts a three-game slide for the Canes, who had lost two of those games in overtime. Miami’s entrance gives the ACC eight teams, which would surely cause a stir if it actually happened. Chances are, one or two of the eight plays their way out, but for now, only Virginia Tech, Florida State — and perhaps Boston College and Miami — are close to the cut line, and all have more compelling cases than the teams omitted from the field.

Moving in as Automatics: San Diego State (Mountain West — see note above), Cal State-Northridge (Big West), Boston University (America East), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Sam Houston State (Southland)

Moving out: Along with Penn State, UNLV and Kentucky miss out on the field after making Monday’s projection. The Rebels are just out after a home overtime loss to San Diego State. The Mountain West is probably fighting for three spots with four teams in contention. Right now, UNLV finishes fourth of the four — Brigham Young, San Diego State and Utah being the others. The Rebels certainly have a strong case to be included — built around wins at Louisville and BYU — and so I wouldn’t protest much if UNLV were included in the field at this point. Kentucky’s second straight home loss — this one to Mississippi State — puts the Cats out of the field. UK’s profile rates out much better than its RPI (75), but the home losses damage Kentucky’s strongest selling point — its conference play — and the RPI makes its admission untenable.

Moving out as Automatics: UNLV (Mountain West), Long Beach State (Big West), Vermont (America East), Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

The top four lines: The biggest shakeup was on the top line where Duke drops out after its 27-point shellacking at the hands of Clemson. Pitt takes the Blue Devils spot up top. Elsewhere, Clemson moves to the No. 2 line, taking Wake Forest’s spot after the two teams were on opposite ends of 27-point results on Wednesday night. Butler drops from a No. 3 to a No. 5 after a road loss at Wisconsin-Green Bay. The Bulldogs’ hold on a top-four seed was always optimistic, considering the selection committee’s history, and this loss is a good enough reason for them to be moved down. Kansas takes Butler’s spot. UCLA and Missouri moved from No. 5’s to No. 4’s after a pair of impressive wins on Wednesday. At the same time Purdue — see note above — drops from a No. 4 to a No. 5.

ACC: The biggest questions for me in the ACC rest near the bubble line where four teams — Miami, Boston College, Florida State and Virginia Tech — have solid at-large profiles right now, but the committee would surely seek out reasons to exclude one of them and therefore avoid the potential backlash of including eight ACC teams in the field. For that reason, none of the four has much margin for error. Three of those four teams face road tests this weekend. Miami heads to Duke to try to pull off another upset on Saturday. Florida State takes on Clemson at Littlejohn that same day. On Sunday, Boston College heads to Winston-Salem to play Wake Forest. The Hokies are the only team with a matchup they’re favored to win — at home against North Carolina State on Sunday.

At the top of the league, while Clemson, Duke and Wake Forest have been exchanging body blows over the last 10 days, North Carolina as been eerily quiet, winning six straight with only Tywon Lawson’s buzzer-beater at FSU being a close call. UNC hosts hapless Virginia on Saturday before traveling to Duke on Wednesday. As the top teams in the ACC fall, it becomes more and more likely that the Big East — and not the ACC — will get two No. 1 seeds, but that’s something that could come all the way down the conference tournaments before it’s decided.

Bid Breakdown:

North Carolina (No. 1)
Clemson (No. 2)
Duke (No. 2)
Wake Forest (No. 3)
Miami (No. 8 )
Boston College (No. 9)
Florida State (No. 10, moved to No. 9 for bracket balancing; ninth-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)

Big East: Cincinnati’s win over Notre Dame on Wednesday pretty much puts an end to ND’s hopes for an NCAA Tournament berth, at least for a while. The Irish will have to find a way to defeat either UCLA in Westwood or Louisville at home before they are seriously considered again. Syracuse looked healthier and happier in a home win over West Virginia on Wednesday, while Villanova’s win at Providence that same night makes the Cats the bridge from the top four to the second tier in the Big East. Continued success could bring Jay Wright’s team a top-four seed. Georgetown’s home win over Rutgers rights the ship, at least temporarily. On Saturday, Cincinnati heads to Georgetown and Providence heads to West Virginia in matchup where the home teams and road teams are in similar positions. UC and PC could really use a statement road win on their NCAA profiles, while Georgetown and West Virginia are trying badly to stay as far away from the at-large cut line as possible. An upset in either game would muddle the picture.

At the top of the league, the decision to place Louisville ahead of Michigan State was an agonizing one for me. I decided that MSU’s recent home losses to inferior teams trumps the fact that the Spartans have far more quality wins than Louisville.

Bid Breakdown:

Connecticut (No. 1)
Pittsburgh (No. 1)
Marquette (No. 2)
Louisville (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 5)
Syracuse (No. 6)
West Virginia (No. 9)
Georgetown (No. 10, seventh-to-last in)
Cincinnati (ninth-to-last out)
Providence (11th-to-last out)

Big Ten: How many bids will the Big Ten get? It’s looking more like six than seven right now, although Wisconsin’s home win against Illinois puts four teams in close range of a sixth and seventh bids. Either Wisconsin took advantage of one of those offensive remnants from Illinois’ last two seasons, or the Badgers’ defense was that good in a 63-50 win. With a trip to Penn State followed by home dates with Iowa and Ohio before a trip to last-place Indiana, 3-1 is both doable and necessary for Bo Ryan’s team. With Penn State positioned so close to the bubble, that game on Sunday in State College obviously sets up as a huge one for the Lions as well. Northwestern remains a somewhat forgotten team, but the Cats can get to .500 in conference with a win at Iowa on Saturday. They will return home for three games — Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State — after the trip to Iowa City. Like Wisconsin, three wins in that four game stretch are possible, if less likely than for the Badgers, and three wins would probably put the Cats in the Feb. 20 projection.

Michigan State is the hard-luck No. 3 seed, but the Spartans have no one but themselves to blame. They come out and dominate Minnesota at home but have too many ugly performances to go with the many sparkling ones. If every team is playing its best, I think MSU is the third best team in the country — behind only UNC and UConn — but we’ve seen too much of the worst of Tom Izzo’s team to put it up at a No. 2 right now. Ohio State’s home win over Purdue puts the Buckeyes in a much safer position, while Minnesota and Illinois come in at the No. 6 seed line. Minnesota travels to Columbus on Saturday in a game featuring two of the five teams jumbled at either 6-3 or 6-4 in conference.

Bid Breakdown:

Michigan State (No. 3)
Purdue (No. 5)
Minnesota (No. 6)
Illinois (No. 6)
Ohio State (No. 8 )
Michigan (No. 12, last in)
Penn State (fourth-to-last out)
Northwestern (seventh-to-last out)
Wisconsin (eighth-to-last out)

Big 12: Like the Big Ten, the Big 12 has a large chunk of its conference right around the at-large cut line. Oklahoma State and Baylor came in just ahead this week, while Texas A&M and Kansas State came in just behind — and Nebraska looms further back. All five teams sit between 3-5 and 4-4 in conference, and they are probably fighting for just one or two spots, which makes each successive game crucial. The most important this weekend is in College Station where A&M hosts K-State. The winner of that game will have a strong case to be included in Monday’s projection. Oklahoma State barely pulled off a home win against Texas Tech on Wednesday, and it’s a good thing, because the Cowboys now travel to Kansas and Texas. Baylor heads to Texas Tech, looking for a sweep of the Red Raiders.

While Texas continues to struggle, Missouri and Kansas are filling the void. Both are high seeds in the latest projection, and both play the kinder, gentler Big 12 North schedule, so each should have a slightly inflated conference record. Oklahoma remains the No. 1 overall seed — drawing much consternation from UConn fans, surely — but the Sooners’ 9-0 record against the RPI top 50 is its biggest selling point. As for Texas, the Longhorns head to Nebraska on Saturday in need of a win after two straight home defeats. A Huskers win over the Longhorns would put NU in the at-large discussion.

Bid Breakdown:

Oklahoma (No. 1)
Kansas (No. 3)
Missouri (No. 4)
Texas (No. 7)
Oklahoma State (No. 11, fourth-to-last in)
Baylor (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Texas A&M (last out)
Kansas State (fifth-to-last out)
Nebraska (20th-to-last out)

Pac-10: Starting with the top of the league, UCLA’s dominant performance against USC in combination with Washington’s woeful second half in a loss at Cal makes the Bruins the obvious top choice from the Pac-10, but that’s still only worth a No. 4 seed right now. The Bruins have been awesome in their last three games with an offensive that is top-10 good. The defense isn’t quite as good, though, and UCLA still depends too much on its perimeter game — not so much outside shooting but perimeter players — with no dependable post option. Nonetheless, Ben Howland’s team will likely be good enough to win the Pac-10. Washington’s loss was bigger for Cal than it was for the Huskies, because Mike Montgomery’s Bears had been in a slide, and they needed Jerome Randle’s dynamic second half. When the shots fall in Berkeley, Cal is very hard to beat.

The other big result of the mid-week was Arizona’s win at Oregon State. In search of their fourth straight conference win, the Beavers crept back into the game late, but the resurgent Chase Budinger’s 17 points and eight rebounds were enough for Zona to sneak out with its fourth straight victory, 56-53. ASU bounced back from a home sweep at the hands of the Washington schools last weekend with a 66-57 win at winless Oregon on Thursday. James Harden had 36, but Sun Devils point guard Derek Glasser had to be helped from the floor in the closing minutes after it looked like he suffered another concussion — his second in two weekends — after taking a jarring screen.

Bid Breakdown:

UCLA (No. 4)
Washington (No. 5)
California (No. 7)
Arizona State (No. 7)
Southern California (No. 11, third-to-last in)
Arizona (fourth-to-last out)

SEC: We’ve talked about Kentucky’s swoon, but let’s hit on South Carolina, who dropped from a No. 7 to a No. 10 after a narrow defeat at Florida. That sounds harsh, and it probably is, but it more likely reflects that the Gamecocks were a bit too high in the previous projection and have settled into a more fitting level. The road win at Baylor is still a good one, but it’s looking less and less impressive with each Bears defeat.

The top three in the SEC remain in solid position, and Tennessee even jumped into the last spot on the No. 5 seed line after a win at Arkansas. The record — 14-7 — is an eyesore, but if the NCAA is going to harp on playing good teams out of league, it can’t penalize Bruce Pearl for doing just that, and losing a few along the way. The Vols have five wins against RPI top-50 teams, and they probably benefit by a seed line in this projection because each of the most likely teams to get that last No. 5 — Washington, Minnesota, Illinois — suffered blowout defeats this week. LSU continues to hover between a No. 7 and a No. 8 with very few chances to improve its stock in SEC play. One of those chances comes on Tuesday when the Florida Gators travel to Baton Rouge.

Bid Breakdown:

Tennessee (No. 5)
Florida (No. 6)
LSU (No. 7)
South Carolina (No. 10)
Kentucky (sixth-to-last in)
Mississippi (16th-to-last out)
Mississippi State (19th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: The two games I previewed in this section of the last projection didn’t disappoint, as Butler did indeed lose at Wisconsin-Green Bay, and San Diego State pulled off the overtime upset at UNLV. There wasn’t a whole lot else of interest going on in mid-major country. Memphis, Xavier, Davidson, Siena, Utah State, Utah and Gonzaga each won without too much fuss. Dayton had the biggest scare, escaping Philly with a two-point win over a much-improved La Salle squad.

The biggest news of the last week was the announcement of the Bracket Buster matchups. The most intriguing matchups are Butler’s trip to North Carolina to play Davidson and Utah State’s journey to California to play Saint Mary’s, who will probably be without Patty Mills when that game is played on Feb. 21. There aren’t as many matchups that are likely to affect the at-large picture as in past years, but if you’re looking for a down-ballot choice, check out Northern Iowa and Siena. Both teams will be in the mix for at-large bids should either fall in its conference tournament. All 51 games will be played from Feb. 20-22. Here’s the schedule. I still don’t understand why the Atlantic-10 doesn’t get in on this. It would really help teams like Dayton, Rhode Island, Saint Joseph’s and Temple if they could get a big non-conference matchup late in February.

Bid Breakdown:

Xavier (No. 3)
Memphis (No. 4)
Gonzaga (No. 4)
Butler (No. 5)
Utah State (No. 8 )
Davidson (No. 9)
Dayton (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for bracket balancing)
Utah (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Brigham Young (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Siena (No. 12)
San Diego State (No. 12)
UNLV (second-to-last out)
Creighton (10th-to-last out)
Tulsa (12th-to-last out)
Saint Mary’s (13th-to-last out)
Rhode Island (14th-to-last out)
UAB (15th-to-last out)
Illinois State (19th-to-last out)

Bracketing challenges: The distribution of seeds for the Big East continues to be a major hurdle for creating a balanced bracket. Here are the true seeds for the eight Big East teams in the field — 1, 2, 2, 2, 6, 6, 10, 11. That means that seven of the eight Big East teams should rightfully be placed in the bottom half of the four regions. But with only four spots, that means three teams have to move. This time, I moved two up — Villanova and Syracuse — and one down — Georgetown — at the expense of Minnesota and Dayton and to the benefit of Siena. If the Big East were to earn a ninth bid, then the job of bracketing the teams would actually become easier, because a ninth team would give me the flexibility to place one team in the same half of a region as another team from the league. Until then, though, no two teams from the same conference can be in the same group of eight.

The Bubble: There was a lot of movement on either side of the bubble but very little crossover. Georgetown, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State all stayed just in the field despite losses. All three teams were 0-2 last week and will have a tough time justifying a continuance with another loss. The schedule shifts in the favor of each team, so the three must take advantage. The Hoyas host Rutgers and the look for revenge against Cincinnati on Saturday. VaTech has the mid-week off before hosting Georgia Tech next Sunday. OSU hosts Texas Tech for what should be a brief respite before traveling to Kansas on the weekend.

On the other side, three schools are making a run at the field but are still just short. K-State knocked off Missouri and Texas last week to move to 3-4 in conference with a home date against Iowa State upcoming. Texas A&M defeated Texas Tech and Oklahoma State at home. The Aggies travel to Oklahoma before hosting Kansas State in a second straight Saturday bubble battle for Mark Turgeon’s team. Northwestern had home wins over Indiana and Wisconsin by a combined five points last week to move to 4-5 in the Big Ten. Bill Carmody’s club hosts Chicago State on Wednesday in a non-conference scuffle before traveling to Iowa for a tricky game that the Cats probably will need to get in the field.

Moving in: Penn State’s win at Michigan State makes the Nittany Lions 6-3 in conference and puts them in the field. PSU hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2001 when such names from the past as Calvin Booth, Joe Crispin and Titus Ivory led the No. 7 seed past Providence and North Carolina and into the Sweet 16. This season it’s Talor Battle, Stanley Pringle and Jamelle Cornley.

Moving in as Automatics: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

Moving out: The Nittany Lions’ entrance comes at the expense of conference foe Michigan. The Wolverines lost twice more last week, were blown out on the road both times and had a player ejected in each loss. On Saturday in West Lafayette, Ind., it was Manny Harris who got the boot after elbowing Purdue guard Chris Kramer. I thought it was a particularly harsh judgment. A foul? Yes. An intentional foul? Perhaps. An ejection? Surely not. The Wolverines collapsed soon after Harris’ exit in a second consecutive 18-point loss.

Moving out as Automatics: East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Southland)

The top four lines: The committee should and does spend a lot of time pondering who should receive the 16 No. 1, 2, 3 and 4 seeds for the tournament and in what order. The eventual champion and all four Final Four teams are likely to come from this group of 16, and proper balance of the top four seed lines gives a tournament its best shot of crowning the appropriate champion. Here are the movers and shakers on those four lines.

Moving up: North Carolina nabs the final No. 1 seed in the wake of Wake’s loss at Georgia Tech. I still have UNC lowest on that line, a step behind Duke. Marquette makes its first foray on to the No. 2 seed line with a dominant second half in Saturday’s win over Georgetown. The Golden Eagles remain unbeaten in conference with three road games awaiting, including trips to DePaul and USF this week. Gonzaga gets on the No. 4 seed line after throttling San Diego at home. As we’ll see in a second, though, it’s not so much what the Zags did to get into the top 16 but what a team did to get knocked out that mattered most.

Moving down: The most surprising result of the weekend may have come in Atlanta, where previously conference-winless Georgia Tech knocked off Wake Forest on Iman Shumpert’s buzzer-beater. It was the second straight time Wake had dropped the game immediately following a home win to UNC or Duke. Michigan State dropped another head-scratching home game, this time blowing a 13-point lead to Penn State on Sunday. The Spartans’ guards found Battle unguardable, as the sophomore lit them up for 29 points. Texas is the only team to fall from the top four seed lines after the Longhorns lost at home to Kansas State, 85-81, in overtime. University of Miami transfer Denis Clemente had 44 for the Wildcats in the upset.

This week’s conference breakdown will center around two key matchups to watch in each league.

ACC: Both of the matchups I’m featuring in the ACC take place on Wednesday night. Wake Forest travels to Miami to play the Hurricanes at 7:30 p.m. Both teams are coming off of losses, but Miami’s form is threatening to keep Frank Haith’s talented squad out of the NCAAs. Three straight defeats have Miami as the fifth-to-last team out, but nothing can vault a team back into the field as quickly as a win over one of the nation’s top clubs. The home game against Wake begins a three-game stretch that will also send the Canes to Duke and bring UNC to South Florida. For Wake’s part, Dino Gaudio’s team needs to get back on the win train if it wants to secure a No. 1 seed. With no sign of the league’s top teams until Feb. 22, this may be a good chance to make hay. Of course, it hasn’t been the ACC’s iron that’s given Wake trouble.

Later that night in Clemson, Duke faces Oliver Purnell’s Tigers at 9 p.m. The Blue Devils bounced back from the two-point loss in Winston-Salem with a 25-point win over Virginia on Sunday. Clemson has not been able to hang in its previous two games against the league’s top three teams, losing at home to Wake by 10 and at UNC by 24. If Clemson is to be considered in the same breath as those teams, it will need a win on Wednesday. A victory should move Clemson to the No. 2 seed line.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
North Carolina (No. 1)
Wake Forest (No. 2)
Clemson (No. 3)
Florida State (No. 9)
Boston College (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Miami (fifth-to-last out)
Maryland (15th-to-last out)

Big East: The Big East’s portion of Big Monday has not disappointed this season with matchups of ranked teams each week. On Monday night, the best matchup of the Big East season to date has Louisville hosting Connecticut. The Cards already knocked off one No. 1 team this season when they sent home formerly undefeated Pittsburgh a couple weeks ago. This should be UConn’s first game as a No. 1, and no team has been very secure with the top ranking. Should Louisville win and stay undefeated in conference, the Cards will have built up a pretty strong case for an eventual No. 1 seed. I like UConn’s ability to take care of the ball and neutralize Louisville’s frontcourt strength in this matchup.

Consider this Harangody’s last stand. Notre Dame travels to Cincinnati on Wednesday for a matchup of two teams clinging to NCAA Tournament dreams. The Irish have lost five straight, but this matchup is Notre Dame’s first against an unranked team since Jan. 10. With UCLA and Louisville following the game with the Bearcats, Notre Dame finds itself in a must-win situation. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is in a similar position as Notre Dame but looking at things through far rosier lenses. A win over the Irish would get Cincinnati back to .500 in conference and keep Mick Cronin’s team’s hopes for an NCAA bid in tact.

Bid Breakdown:

Connecticut (No. 1)
Pittsburgh (No. 2)
Louisville (No. 2)
Marquette (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 6, moved to No. 5 for bracket balancing)
West Virginia (No. 6)
Syracuse (No. 10, moved to No. 9 for bracket balancing, ninth-to-last in)
Georgetown (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing, fourth-to-last in)
Providence (seventh-to-last out)
Cincinnati (10th-to-last out)
Notre Dame (16th-to-last out)

Big Ten: I’m going to look to Thursday to provide the Big Ten matchups of note. The first is in Ann Arbor where the wounded Wolverines host Penn State. Michigan has lost five of six since starting the conference season 3-1, and one of those losses was a 15-point defeat at Penn State. The Wolverines find themselves in a similar position to Notre Dame, as a trip to Connecticut for a non-conference game looms on the weekend followed by a home game with Michigan State next week. In light of the upcoming schedule and the recent run of poor form, the Wolverines really need a win on Thursday. Penn State can solidify its place in the NCAA field with a win, which would be the fifth straight for Ed DeChellis’ team. This does not appear to be a favorable matchup for Michigan, but, with his team’s backs against the proverbial wall, we’ll see what Beilein comes up with to try to contain Battle and the Lions.

Later that night in Madison, another wounded team takes the floor at home. Six straight losses have sent Wisconsin from 3-0 to 3-6, and the Badgers’ NCAA hopes are now on life support. Wisconsin still has two games with Indiana as well as home games against Iowa and Michigan, so there are wins out there, but Bo Ryan’s team can ill afford to get swept by Illinois and fall to 3-7. For the Illini, who are just 1-3 on the road, a victory away from Assembly Hall would give Illinois a case for a top-four seed. Beyond a victory at a banged-up Purdue at the start of conference play, Illinois has lost on the road to Michigan, Michigan State and Minnesota. UofI, though, is the only Big Ten team without a home loss in conference.

Bid Breakdown:

Michigan State (No. 3)
Purdue (No. 4)
Minnesota (No. 5, moved to No. 6 for bracket balancing)
Illinois (No. 6)
Ohio State (No. 9)
Penn State (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Northwestern (second-to-last out)
Michigan (third-to-last out)
Wisconsin (11th-to-last out)

Big 12: The second game of tonight’s Big Monday double-header gives fans what should be an intriguing denouement after the battle in Louisville. For all of the hype surrounding Baylor entering the season, the Bears are merely 3-4 in conference and haven’t been particularly competitive in their matchups with the league’s iron. Kansas comes to Waco on Monday night still undefeated in conference but having yet to play a team considered to be in the Big 12’s first division. Baylor has a chance to prove it is in that category with a strong performance, but another loss would leave the Bears at 3-5 and in a position where they might have to scramble for an NCAA Tournament berth.

The other game to watch features a team that I would call one of my personal disappointments this season. Maybe I just overrate Texas every season, but I really thought Rick Barnes’ team was poised to make a run at a Big 12 title and maybe even a Final Four. The reality, though, is much more modest. Texas is just 15-5 overall and 4-2 in conference after Saturday’s overtime loss to K-State, and it’s the offense that has let the Longhorns down. Texas is just not a good shooting team, and A.J. Abrams’ 38 percent on his many 2-point attempts is a big reason why. Gary Johnson’s 47.9 percent eFG hasn’t helped either. Maybe it’s time to get Connor Atchley more touches. Texas hosts Missouri on Wednesday in a battle of the two teams that were recently bitten by the K-State Wildcats. The winner of this game should have an inside track at a No. 4 seed.

Bid Breakdown:

Oklahoma (No. 1)
Kansas (No. 4)
Missouri (No. 5)
Texas (No. 6)
Baylor (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Oklahoma State (No. 12, last in)
Texas A&M (last out)
Kansas State (sixth-to-last out)

Pac-10: The first Pac-10 game of note comes in a rare Wednesday encounter. Winners of five of six, USC is one of the hottest teams in the conference, and the Trojans travel to UCLA a much more confident team than they were in the teams’ Jan. 11 matchup. UCLA is playing very well also, and the winner of this game will probably be the best bet to challenge Washington for the league title. The 10:30 p.m. tip-off is in Westwood, a locale that should be to the Bruins’ advantage, but the road team has won the last three meetings. UCLA needs this game and many more between now and March to get the No. 3 or 4 seed that would enable a deep Tournament run. USC can cement its NCAA Tournament placement with another good win.

Washington travels to Berkeley on Thursday night in a key encounter between one team with its eyes set on a Pac-10 title and the hosts, who are just worried about falling out of contention for the NCAA Tournament. Cal’s three-overtime win in Seattle seems like a distant memory after losses to Stanford, Oregon State, UCLA and USC in its last five games. Washington is 5-1 since that Jan. 10 thriller, which was a turning point for both teams, just not in the way you would have thought.

Bid Breakdown:

UCLA (No. 5)
Washington (No. 5)
Arizona State (No. 8 )
California (No. 10)
Southern California (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Arizona (eighth-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky hosts Mississippi State on Tuesday in a game that is now vital to a Wildcats team suddenly at risk for the NCAAs. The Wildcats have lost two straight after it once appeared they would romp through the league. With an RPI of 68, Kentucky can’t afford another home slip-up, but Rick Stansbury’s Bulldogs are far less dangerous than South Carolina. A home loss to Ole Miss on Saturday probably wipes away whatever slim chances MSU had at the NCAAs, but a win at Kentucky could reverse the damage that loss did.

For the second game of note, let’s go to Gainesville where suddenly dangerous South Carolina looks to sweep Florida. You may remember the Gamecocks’ last-second victory on Jan. 21 — you can bet Billy Donovan has that transition defense — or lack thereof — etched into his brain. That win was the first for South Carolina that served notice to the SEC. A second win in Lexington on Saturday has put the Gamecocks in solid position for a bid, at least for now. It’s shaping up to be a terrific four-team race in the SEC East, and the Gators will try to make sure that this one turns out a bit better than their 18-point loss in Knoxville on Saturday.

Bid Breakdown:

LSU (No. 7)
South Carolina (No. 7)
Tennessee (No. 7)
Florida (No. 8 )
Kentucky (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Mississippi (19th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: If Butler is to lose a regular-season conference game this season, it will probably be this week. The Bulldogs have three road games in a six-game span, including visits to two of the Horizon League’s most dangerous foes — Wisconsin-Green Bay on Monday night and Wright State on Saturday. Should Butler win both, there will be little to stand between the Bulldogs and an undefeated conference season and the No. 3 seed that should come with that.

On Tuesday night at the Thomas and Mack Center, Steve Fisher brings his San Diego State Aztecs into Vegas to take on UNLV. Lon Kruger’s Rebels haven’t lost in their home arena all season, and that includes wins over New Mexico and BYU, but SDSU, which has already won at BYU, is dangerous enough to get it done. The Aztecs could really use this win to boost an at-large profile that — beyond the victory in Provo — is short on “wow” moments.

Bid Breakdown:

Xavier (No. 3)
Butler (No. 3)
Memphis (No. 4)
Gonzaga (No. 4)
UNLV (No. 7)
Davidson (No. 8 )
Utah State (No. 8 )
Utah (No. 9)
Dayton (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for bracket balancing)
Siena (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing)
Brigham Young (No. 12, second-to-last in)
San Diego State (fourth-to-last out)
Creighton (ninth-to-last out)
Tulsa (11th-to-last out)
Saint Mary’s (12th-to-last out)
Rhode Island (13th-to-last out)
UAB (17th-to-last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (18th-to-last out)
Illinois State (20th-to-last out)

Portions of this story were republished at SNY.tv.

Oklahoma State (30th in BTI; Bracket Junkie No. 11 seed, 7th-to-last in) at Texas A&M (54th; 8th-to-last out): When these two teams first met on Jan. 10 in Stillwater, the Cowboys had a huge advantage in shooting and turnovers and leveraged that into a comfortable, 72-61 win.

When the two teams meet on Saturday at 2 p.m. ET in College Station, the Aggies will have to handle the Cowboys’ aggressive, risk-taking defense. If Texas A&M can avoid the turnover, then it can take advantage of its superior size to exploit the the small and thin Pokes. The Aggies premier interior threat, Bryan Davis, had a miserable game the first time around, turning it over five times and shooting just 1-of-6 from the field. Chinemelu Elonu’s 20-point, 12-rebound, 8-for-9 shooting performance is more typical of the offensive production Mark Turgeon might expect from his frontcourt on Saturday.

OSU had five players in double-figures in the win, and at least broke even on the glass in terms of rebounding percentage — the Cowboys actually had a four-rebound margin in terms of total boards. Travis Ford’s team will have to continue to hit from deep — the Cowboys were 8-for-20 against A&M — force turnovers and hang in on the glass to get the sweep.

The importance of a sweep cannot be underestimated for either team. A loss would drop A&M 1 1/2 games behind OSU and the Aggies would then be hard-pressed to receive a bid without far out-distancing the Cowboys in conference record. With that Big 12 South schedule, neither team has a respite coming up and so both need wins desperately. The winner of this game, especially if it’s OSU, will have the inside track on the sixth Big 12 NCAA bid.

New Mexico (63rd; 17th-to-last out) at Utah (34th; No. 11 seed, 5th-to-last in): The Mountain West is clearly the best of the non-major conferences this season with five of nine teams carrying legitimate hopes at an NCAA Tournament berth into the last day of January. Two of those teams can go a long way toward improving their March candidacy when New Mexico and Utah meet in Salt Lake City at 3:30 p.m. ET.

The Utes’ defeat of Gonzaga on New Year’s Eve may have been their most impressive result of the season, but the overtime home win over BYU on Tuesday was certainly the most important. The win puts Utah right beside UNLV as Mountain West teams in the best position to make the NCAAs. Moreover, the win moves rival BYU squarely on the bubble.

With poor play out of conference — losses to Central Florida and Texas Tech — Steve Alford’s Lobos put themselves in a tough spot heading into conference play, but a 19-point home win over BYU and two narrow road losses at UNLV and San Diego State served notice that New Mexico would have a say in the league title race. What UNM needs now is a road win at one of the other league contenders to get back into serious at-large talk.

As for the game itself, both teams like to get to the foul line and also often put their opponents there, so whichever team can either avoid committing too many fouls or whichever team can convert best at the line — Utah is 79.6 percent from the line, UNM is 68.8 — may have the advantage.

Wisconsin (53rd; 3rd-to-last out) at Northwestern (51st; 9th-to-last out): No one who reads the content on this site will be surprised to learn just how close Northwestern is to being in the NCAA field. Despite a 3-5 conference record, the Wildcats are actually in good shape thanks to home wins over Florida State and Minnesota and that memorable road win in East Lansing. The 3-5 record is deceiving because of the difficulty of the early conference schedule. But to get to a position where they can be considered legitimate, the Wildcats have to exorcise the other Big Ten team — besides Michigan State — that has demonized them in recent seasons.

Wisconsin’s 74-45 win over Northwestern at the Kohl Center on Jan. 7 was just the latest indignity served by Bo Ryan to Bill Carmody. That win was the fifth straight for Wisconsin over NU and the fourth in a row by at least 12 points. The Badgers are a very difficult matchup because of their patience against the 1-3-1 zone and, most importantly, their unwillingness to turn the ball over. Without an inside presence to block shots or rebound, the Wildcats depend on turnovers to stop their opponents, and Wisconsin just isn’t into being charitable.

Saturday’s matchup at 8 p.m. ET in Evanston is also a massive game for the Badgers, who are on a five-game losing streak. With two overtime losses and a one-point loss in the stretch, Wisconsin surely doesn’t deserve such a long losing streak, but the Badgers nonetheless sit tied for eighth with Northwestern at 3-5 in conference. The first step back toward the league’s top half could start with one road win, and Ryan could hardly ask for a better matchup — except Indiana, of course.

Virginia Tech (43rd; No. 11 seed, 4th-to-last in) at Boston College (41st; No. 11 seed, 6th-to-last in): There are only two ACC teams with winning records who are not ranked in the top 12, and they meet in Chestnut Hill on Saturday night at 8 p.m. ET when Boston College gets its return matchup with Virginia Tech.

When these two teams met two weeks ago in Blacksburg, the Hokies offense absolutely ripped BC’s defense to shreds in a 79-71 Tech win. It’s a bit of a secret among casual college hoops observers that Al Skinner’s Boston College teams are typically far better on offense than defense. People don’t tend to think of Skinner as an offensive coach, but his Flex is perhaps the best-run in the country. At the same time, defense seems to be merely an optional endeavor for the Eagles. The good news for BC fans is that the Eagles have held two of their last three opponents below a point per possession, so the Hokies will have a chance to see whether the Eagles defense has really made any progress.

Jeff Allen had 30 points on 11-of-16 shooting in that last matchup as BC’s only big body, Josh Southern, played just 15 minutes, in part due to foul trouble. Like Texas A&M and Northwestern, Boston College can ill-afford to get swept by a team that is likely to join it in a fight for the last few at-large bids. VaTech is playing well enough to be much more than just an NCAA Tournament hopeful, and the Hokies are hoping to get back on track after a disappointing loss at home to Clemson on Thursday.

Arkansas (68th; 18th-to-last out) at LSU (32nd, No. 9 seed): Coming off its biggest win of the season, LSU has a chance to solidify its spot in the field with a home win over Arkansas on Saturday at 5 p.m. ET in Baton Rouge. The Razorbacks, finally off the schnide in SEC play, needs a signature road win to make up for their early road blunders.

Arkansas entered conference play as the team with the quality wins and the SEC West club with the best shot to make the field. But, with the Tigers’ home wins over South Carolina and Mississippi State and road wins at Ole Miss and Tennessee, the title of SEC West Team with Best Shot at NCAAs is clearly theirs. Arkansas, with a 1-4 conference record and a stretch of three road games in four — and the only home game against Tennessee — is at a pivotal point in its season.

It shouldn’t be too surprising that a team as young as John Pelphrey’s squad is struggling with the tests of the SEC, and a nine-point home win over Alabama on Thursday is little indication that the ‘Backs have gotten back into the form that saw them defeat NCAA cinches Oklahoma and Texas about a month ago. The offense has been the big problem for Arkansas as the win over Bama was Arkansas’ first in which it scored at least a point per possession since a Jan. 3 win over North Texas. Arkansas would do well to duplicated the 57.1 percent eFG it displayed against the Tide, but not every team is in as messy a state as the program in Tuscaloosa.