Big Ten is even money to take first Challenge

The ACC-Big Ten Challenge is closing its 11th edition Wednesday night, and the conference from the Midwest has yet to win it. Five times — including last year — the Big Ten has come up just a game short. Someday the National League will lose the All-Star Game to the American League again, and someday the ACC will fall to the Big Ten. Could that day be today? The oddsmakers put it at just about even money.

 

The two conferences enter the last day of the challenge with three wins each. The Big Ten took a 3-0 lead in the series when it swept the 7:00 games on Tuesday night, Purdue pulling away from Wake Forest, 70-59, and Northwestern going down to Raleigh and schooling NC State, 65-53. This after Penn State squeaked past Virginia in Charlottesville on Monday night.

 

The ACC, though, is a resilient league, and the later tip-offs on Tuesday all went its way. Maryland visited hapless Indiana and won by 12. North Carolina hosted Michigan State in a rematch of April’s national title game, and the Tar Heels prevailed again behind Ed Davis, 89-82. Iowa hung with Virginia Tech for most of Tuesday’s final game, but the Hokies slipped away at the end, 70-64. Read More »


Predicting many future events in one large analysis

Feel free to jump to the conference of your choice by clicking on one of the links below:

 

ACC
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Mid-Majors

 

With the first games that count coming up on Monday night, I figured I’d get my predictions in for all the major conferences and a few select mid-majors. Here are the conference-by-conference predictions with projected league record and postseason fate. It’ll be another four-plus months before I find out how wrong I am — sooner than that with some teams. Though I don’t officially make Final Four and Sweet 16 picks, you can infer them from the seedings.

 

ACC

 

Duke (predicted conference record 11-5; possessions returned — 63.8 percent*): There are concerns at point guard, but they were there last year as well, and while Jon Scheyer isn’t a natural at the position, he’s good enough to get by considering his talent and that of those surrounding him. The loss of Elliott Williams does hurt, but the combination of Scheyer and Kyle Singler plus emerging youngsters should keep Duke at or near the top of the ACC. NCAA No. 2 seed. Read More »


Bracket Junkie: The ever-receding bubble

 

Bracketing challenges: The most difficult team to place in this bracket was Purdue. On Tuesday, the Boilermakers lost at Ohio State in overtime without their best player — Robbie Hummel. It’s the second time Purdue has lost a close game on the road without the sophomore star. Usually those losses would be discounted slightly with the expectation that Purdue will have a full-strength Hummel by the time March comes around. The problem with that assumption is that Hummel is suffering from a stress fracture in his back, an injury that won’t fully heal until the offseason. Hummel is expected to be day-to-day from here until Purdue’s final game of the season. Because of the chronic nature of the injury, I’m treating those losses as if they were full-strength losses — with a slight discount for the Penn State loss, because Purdue was without Chris Kramer for that game. Losing close road games to Penn State and Ohio State is not particularly egregious — certainly better than Michigan State’s home losses to Penn State and Northwestern — but Purdue would probably be listed as a No. 4 seed if doctors expected Hummel to be fully healthy by March. Instead, the Boilermakers are the top No. 5 seed on my board.

 

Note: San Diego State is in the field as an automatic bid from the Mountain West after winning at UNLV on Tuesday. The Aztecs would be right between Baylor and Southern Cal in the “Last In” list if they were considered an at-large.

 

The Bubble: The bubble was a little awkward this week because of several results in conference play. Even with San Diego State’s inclusion as an automatic, the standard for inclusion in the field on Friday feels less stringent than it did on Monday thanks to many losses by teams around the bubble. In the end, I’m very comfortable with the top 32 at-large teams. It’s the last two — Baylor and Michigan — that I could take or leave.

 

Michigan’s impressive win over Penn State put both teams right around the cut mark. Because of the Wolverines’ win Thursday and their more impressive play out of conference — wins over Duke and UCLA — they’re in and the Nittany Lions are out, not that it was necessarily and either/or proposition. Baylor is running out of reprieves. Scott Drew’s team has now lost four straight games, all against teams seeded No. 7 or better in this projection. Baylor now enters a stretch of five games — at Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, at Oklahoma State, at Iowa State — where the Bears will need to win at least three to stay in the field. Read More »


Bracket Junkie: Big Ten shuffle on the bubble

 

Bracketing challenges: The distribution of seeds for the Big East continues to be a major hurdle for creating a balanced bracket. Here are the true seeds for the eight Big East teams in the field — 1, 2, 2, 2, 6, 6, 10, 11. That means that seven of the eight Big East teams should rightfully be placed in the bottom half of the four regions. But with only four spots, that means three teams have to move. This time, I moved two up — Villanova and Syracuse — and one down — Georgetown — at the expense of Minnesota and Dayton and to the benefit of Siena. If the Big East were to earn a ninth bid, then the job of bracketing the teams would actually become easier, because a ninth team would give me the flexibility to place one team in the same half of a region as another team from the league. Until then, though, no two teams from the same conference can be in the same group of eight.

 

The Bubble: There was a lot of movement on either side of the bubble but very little crossover. Georgetown, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State all stayed just in the field despite losses. All three teams were 0-2 last week and will have a tough time justifying a continuance with another loss. The schedule shifts in the favor of each team, so the three must take advantage. The Hoyas host Rutgers and the look for revenge against Cincinnati on Saturday. VaTech has the mid-week off before hosting Georgia Tech next Sunday. OSU hosts Texas Tech for what should be a brief respite before traveling to Kansas on the weekend. Read More »


Bubble Watch: Three rematches highlight matchups to watch

Here’s a look at the five Saturday games that should have the biggest effect on the NCAA Tournament bubble:

 

Oklahoma State (30th in BTI; Bracket Junkie No. 11 seed, 7th-to-last in) at Texas A&M (54th; 8th-to-last out): When these two teams first met on Jan. 10 in Stillwater, the Cowboys had a huge advantage in shooting and turnovers and leveraged that into a comfortable, 72-61 win.

 

When the two teams meet on Saturday at 2 p.m. ET in College Station, the Aggies will have to handle the Cowboys’ aggressive, risk-taking defense. If Texas A&M can avoid the turnover, then it can take advantage of its superior size to exploit the the small and thin Pokes. The Aggies premier interior threat, Bryan Davis, had a miserable game the first time around, turning it over five times and shooting just 1-of-6 from the field. Chinemelu Elonu’s 20-point, 12-rebound, 8-for-9 shooting performance is more typical of the offensive production Mark Turgeon might expect from his frontcourt on Saturday. Read More »