Mississippi State, huh? I know the record is pretty — 20-8 overall and 8-5 in conference — but has anyone bothered to check who Mississippi State has beaten? The Bulldogs’ only win over a top-50 RPI or Pomeroy team this season was a 69-55 victory over Old Dominion in South Padre Island, Texas, on Nov. 28. Their next best wins are two against rival Mississippi. In its three games against top-25 teams, Rick Stansbury’s squad has lost to Richmond on a neutral court, Kentucky at home and Vanderbilt in Nashville. All three games have been close, but all three were losses. Oh, and MSU has also lost four times to teams outside the RPI top 100: Rider, Western Kentucky, Arkansas, Alabama.

If you want to go a bit more advanced, check this out. Entering Wednesday’s win over Alabama, MSU had a worse conference efficiency margin than Arkansas. You may be thinking, “Hey, but Mississippi State is not far from Tennessee, and the Vols are in your field.” If you were thinking that, it’s not a bad thought until you consider that Mississippi State plays in the far weaker SEC West, so Tennessee’s efficiency margin has been against better competition.

Here’s a look at the SEC teams ranked by the difficulty of their conference schedules to date (conference RPI SOS):

This shows Mississippi State as having played the second weakest SEC conference schedule to date. This after playing the weakest non-conference schedule according to RPI or second weakest (ahead of just Arkansas again) according to Pomeroy. How can Mississippi State be in the field but Cincinnati, with its four wins against top-50 opponents, Charlotte, with its three, or even Washington and Notre Dame, with two wins each against top-25 teams, be left out? The answer is it wouldn’t happen. I’m not sure which team would get the last bid to the NCAA Tournament right now — there are a handful of options — but I’m certain it wouldn’t be Mississippi State.

MSU does still have a chance to play its way into the field. The Bulldogs travel to Columbia to play South Carolina on Saturday followed by a trip to Auburn on Wednesday. If MSU is going to add to its meager total of quality wins, though, that will have to come on March 6 at home against Tennessee. If the Bulldogs cannot win that game, then they won’t be going to the NCAAs without a deep run — think title-game appearance — in the SEC Tournament.

Finally, be skeptical of any bracket projector — like Joe Lunardi — who is projecting what the bracket would look like today and has Mississippi State in his field.

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.

It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.

Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference.

In the last two projections, finding a team to fill out the third seedline was the biggest problem, but Wisconsin’s victory over MSU vaulted the Badgers to a No. 3, eliminating that problem. The new problem was filling out the fourth seedline, where a half-dozen or more teams have good cases to join New Mexico, BYU and Baylor. I went with Ohio State because the Buckeyes seemed to fit the best, despite ranking just 22nd in the BTI seeding model. A bit of a bump for Evan Turner’s injury combined with OSU’s recent terrific play gives the Buckeyes the nod over Temple, Vanderbilt, Butler, Gonzaga, Tennessee and Northern Iowa.

Moving In as At-large: South Florida

Moving Out as At-large: Connecticut

Moving In as Automatic: Old Dominion (from at-large to automatic; Colonial), Lehigh (Patriot)

Moving Out as Automatic: George Mason (Colonial), Lafayette (Patriot)

On the Bubble: There was not a ton of movement from one side of the cutline to the other, with USF getting the big bump after Wednesday’s win at Georgetown, while UConn finally couldn’t justify its spot any longer after a sorry performance at Louisville. The last team in and last team out remained the same, as neither South Carolina nor Dayton played during the midweek. There were a couple of big moves from teams that had been well outside the field and are now knocking on the door. Notre Dame and Washington, with Thursday home wins against solid opposition, moved into the last 10 out.

ACC: Duke jumps back on to the No. 2 seedline after an impressive performance at home against Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils still have that ugly 1-4 road record, but seven wins against the top 50 — a total that is tied with Kansas for most in the nation — have a way of making the road mark easier to ignore. Three of Duke’s next four are on the road against teams that don’t appear to be headed to the NCAA Tournament, so the Blue Devils could pad the road record over the next 12 days.

The most interesting action in the ACC is happening at the bubble where Maryland’s road win at Florida State was a huge victory for the Terps’ chances and equally damaging to FSU. Gary Williams’ team is not comfortable, but it is in very solid shape thanks to a 5-2 conference mark. With six top-100 wins and two top-50 wins, FSU is still in decent shape, but home losses kill the RPI, and Leonard Hamilton’s saw his team’s fall to 44 after Thursday’s loss. Maryland hosts UNC, and FSU hosts Miami this weekend.

A little further from the cutline are Virginia Tech and Virginia, both of whom secured solid home wins against second-tier ACC competition this week. Both schools still have plenty of work to do to compensate for weak play out of conference — in VaTech’s case, that’s mainly due to a wimpy schedule. Virginia’s final nine conference games should be its toughest, starting with a home matchup against Wake Forest on Saturday. Virginia Tech hosts Clemson that same day.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 2)
Georgia Tech (No. 6)
Wake Forest (No. 7)
Clemson (No. 7, moved to No. 8 for bracket balancing)
Maryland (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Florida State (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing; third-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (18th-to-last out)
Virginia (20th-to-last out)

Big 12: The one thing you should notice about the Big 12 is just how comfortable its seven bids look. None of the seven teams are among the last 10 in, and that’s true even after Oklahoma State lost its second straight on Monday to Texas. There’s still plenty of time for OSU, Missouri or Texas A&M to play their ways out of the field, but nine conference wins should get each in.

Texas got back on track with a terrific second half in Stillwater on Monday, Kansas State blew out Nebraska in Lincoln, and Baylor had no trouble with Iowa State at home. Kansas remained undefeated after a win on Wednesday, but it took overtime to leave Boulder with the victory. All four teams are playing for seeding, although Baylor — at just 4-3 in conference — needs to be careful that it doesn’t get swept in its upcoming road games. Scott Drew’s team travels to A&M on Saturday and Nebraska on Wednesday.

Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Texas (No. 2)
Kansas State (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 4)
Missouri (No. 8)
Texas A&M (No. 8)
Oklahoma State (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for bracket balancing)

Big East: Georgetown’s home loss to South Florida dropped the Hoyas down a seedline, but Syracuse, Villanova and West Virginia all won comfortably. The real intrigue is taking place near the bubble where eight teams cannot be sure of their March fate.

Louisville got the win it needed at home against Connecticut, and the Cards are now halfway to the 10 league wins they’ll likely need to make the NCAAs. UConn is now in very tough shape. The winless week against Providence and Marquette will be what fans will point to if the Huskies fail to dance, and after their play in Louisville, it’s hard to see many more W’s coming from this bunch. At the very minimum, UConn needs to finish 5-3 in conference to have a decent chance at the Garden in March, and it will probably take a 6-2 mark to seal a bid. The Huskies still face four very difficult road games, including trips to Syracuse and Villanova.

Pittsburgh continued to slide with a weak second half at West Virginia on Wednesday. The Panthers are still in better shape than the other seven Big East teams fighting for 3-5 berths, but that gap is closing. The Panthers host Seton Hall, Robert Morris and West Virginia over the next week. The Pirates lost their second straight road game at Villanova on Tuesday.

I thought that Notre Dame’s loss to Rutgers last Saturday put the death knell in its realistic NCAA Tournament hopes, but the Irish made a surprising jump in my model with the win over Cincinnati on Thursday. UND has a very difficult upcoming schedule, and will probably need to finish 5-3, but there’s definitely still a chance. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is still in the field despite the fact that the Bearcats don’t have the look of an NCAA Tournament team. The Bearcats — still being propped up by non-league wins over Maryland and Vanderbilt — will have to win on the road if they hope to earn a bid, and they have four more chances. But first, UC hosts Syracuse on Sunday.

How could I have gotten this far and not mentioned USF, which is trying to hone in on Northwestern’s feel-good rooting interest? Two weeks ago, the Bulls had won just one Big East game on the road and had never won two straight league games. Stan Heath has now seen his team win two Big East road games and four straight in a fortnight, all without top post player Augustus Gilchrist. Irresistible scorer Dominique Jones has to be conference player of the year, right? The new road warriors travel to Notre Dame and Marquette on the next two weekends. A 10-8 finish and a win in New York will almost certainly get the Bulls in.

Finally, there’s Marquette, which avenged that loss at DePaul by defeating the Blue Demons by 11 in Milwaukee. MU is back to .500 in conference and doesn’t face a top-four Big East team the rest of the way. That means a lot of winnable games — but also tricky ones — starting Saturday in Providence against a Friars team that the Golden Eagles defeated by 30 on Jan. 17.

Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Georgetown (No. 3)
Pittsburgh (No. 7)
Louisville (No. 9)
Cincinnati (No. 10, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing; ninth-to-last in)
South Florida (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing; sixth-to-last in)
Notre Dame (third-to-last out)
Marquette (sixth-to-last out)
Connecticut (10th-to-last out)
Seton Hall (16th-to-last out)

Big Ten: I discussed most of the action surrounding the first four teams in the general bracket breakdown that leads this piece, so let’s get straight to the bubble. Illinois had a nice win at Iowa, and Northwestern pulled away from Michigan in the second half. Minnesota was off. The Illini have just completed their very generous early schedule, while the Wildcats have just begun the soft underbelly of its league schedule. Chances are all three teams meet somewhere around .500, but it’ll take at least 10 conference wins for any of these teams to dance.

The big game for the bubble teams this weekend is in Champaign where Illinois hosts Michigan State, and Bruce Weber’s team will try to prove that its improved 2-point defense wasn’t a product of a soft recent schedule. Minnesota tries to bounce back from an ugly loss to Ohio State with a trip to Penn State, and Northwestern hosts Indiana.

Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Wisconsin (No. 3)
Michigan State (No. 3)
Ohio State (No. 4)
Minnesota (seventh-to-last out)
Illinois (14th-to-last out)

Pac-10: California’s hopes of securing an NCAA Tournament bid before reaching Los Angeles for the Pac-10 Tournament took a major hit with a loss in LA at USC on Thursday night. Arizona, the team Cal entered Thursday tied with atop the league standings, had a tough loss at Washington, as top interior scorer Derrick Williams fouled out in just seven minutes. With those two results plus Arizona State’s win at Washington State and UCLA’s victory over Stanford, there is now a four-way tie atop the Pac-10 standings at 6-4.

Many people are assuming that the Pac-10 will only get one bid, and that may be true, but because it’s assumed to be true, most are ignoring the four teams in the league that can still earn at-large berths. Along with Cal and Arizona, Washington is now within striking distance after the win over the Wildcats, and the Sun Devils also have a puncher’s chance with a strong finish. ASU and UW meet in Seattle on Saturday in a critical game for both teams.

Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (fourth-to-last out)
Arizona (eighth-to-last out)
Arizona State (15th-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky has finally moved up to No. 4 in the BTI seeding model after a second straight quality win on Tuesday, this one against Mississippi. Tennessee narrowly escaped LSU, and Vanderbilt had a tough home win against Mississippi State. All three of those SEC East teams are comfortably positioned for an NCAA bid.

Elsewhere in the East, Florida got a much-needed road victory at Alabama. It was a game that UF probably could not afford to lose if it has hopes of getting the 10 conference wins that would assure a bid, though a 9-7 mark would still give the Gators a chance. South Carolina was on a bye and remained on the very edge of the field. The Gamecocks head to Tennessee on Saturday.

Out West, things continue to look sour for the Mississippi schools. MSU dropped its third straight road game by a combined 13 points in Nashville on Wednesday. With a trip to Gainesville on Saturday, the Bulldogs are in desperate need of a win or risk losing touch with the field. The Rebels dropped to 4-4 in conference after a 10-point loss in Lexington. That was expected — the killer was the Sunday home loss to Arkansas. Andy Kennedy’s team will have to avoid a similarly injurious defeat when it hosts Alabama on Saturday. MSU and Ole Miss meet in Starkville on Tuesday.

Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 5)
Tennessee (No. 6)
Mississippi (No. 11, fourth-to-last in)
Florida (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing; second-to-last in)
South Carolina (No. 13, last in)
Mississippi State (19th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: It’s becoming clear to me that the toughest part about seeding the upcoming tournament will be determining what to do with the glut top mid-major teams. Be it New Mexico, Butler, Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Siena or Cornell (along with many others), bracket projectors are going to have a hard time figuring out the appropriate place for each. In the past, selection committees have been wildly erratic in placing teams like this, sometimes missing the projectors’ consensus by 2-3 seedlines.

For instance, Gonzaga and Butler are both ranked in the top-15 in the Coaches Poll, but the two teams are running well behind that (24th and 27th respectively) in the BTI model. On the other hand, Northern Iowa was 22nd in the poll but is 16th in the BTI. Rhode Island and Xavier are unranked but are slotted 23rd and 25th (right with Butler and Gonzaga) in the BTI model. The NCAA Selection Committee is not a slave to public opinion, and it definitely favors my model over the polls, but the relationship is not as strong with mid-majors as with the big boys.

Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 4)
Brigham Young (No. 4)
Temple (No. 5)
Butler (No. 5)
Gonzaga (No. 5)
Northern Iowa (No. 6)
Rhode Island (No. 6)
Xavier (No. 7)
UNLV (No. 8)
UAB (No. 8)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Charlotte (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Richmond (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 10, seventh-to-last in)
Siena (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing)
Utah State (No. 12)
Cornell (No. 12)
Dayton (last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (second-to-last out)
San Diego State (fifth-to-last out)
William & Mary (ninth-to-last out)
Northeastern (11th-to-last out)
Wichita State (12th-to-last out)
Tulsa (13th-to-last out)
Memphis (17th-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Breakdown: Perhaps the most difficult aspect to building this bracket was finding that last No. 3 seed. Out of Purdue, Kansas State, Duke, Texas and West Virginia, it was clear that two of them would be No. 2 seeds and three would be No. 3 seeds, but there was no obvious choice to fill out that third line. Just like in the last projection, I went with New Mexico over Brigham Young and any other team — Wisconsin, Tennessee, Baylor, Temple, Ohio State, Georgia Tech — that might have had a claim.

The good thing is that none of those teams had a very strong claim at that spot. New Mexico was the choice because its five wins against top-50 teams was more than any other team that hadn’t been bracketed, except Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, which also have five. New Mexico’s record (20-3), combined with a head-to-head win over Brigham Young, a six-game winning streak and a 10th ranking in my seeding model put the Lobos over the top. I’m not sure what the Selection Committee would do if presented this scenario, but the only other teams I could see them bracketing here are BYU, who — again — has lost to New Mexico head-to-head, or Ohio State, if the Buckeyes were given a complete pass for losses suffered when Evan Turner was injured.

Moving In as At-large: South Carolina, Old Dominion (from automatic to at-large)

Moving Out as At-large: Minnesota, North Carolina

Moving In as Automatic: Stony Brook (America East), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), George Mason (Colonial), Jackson State (SWAC), Utah State (WAC)

Moving Out as Automatic: Maine (America East), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Old Dominion (Colonial; still an at-large), Texas Southern (SWAC), Louisiana Tech (WAC)

On the Bubble: It’s not hard to make a case against any of those last four in. Connecticut is a popular whipping boy with its poor play in January, save one fine effort, but the Huskies still have seven wins against top-100 teams, albeit just one against a top-50 squad. Maryland and South Carolina have pretty weak cases, but the Terrapins strong conference record in the ACC keeps the Terps in despite losing the ACC automatic bid. For the Gamecocks, with a win over Georgia to get them above .500 in conference combined with the win over Kentucky, they squeak in. Florida’s narrow loss at Tennessee wasn’t enough to knock them down over some of the teams nipping at the Gators’ heels.

Heading in the wrong direction are North Carolina and Minnesota, which each had embarrassing performances on Sunday. North Carolina was never competitive with Virginia in Chapel Hill during the second half before losing by 15. Minnesota’s vaunted defense had no answer for Ohio State in Columbus, losing by 22. The Gophers are looking less and less like the team I called one of the country’s most underrated just more than a month ago.

ACC: Duke’s blowout loss at Georgetown means the ACC will have a difficult time getting a team on the top line come Selection Sunday. The Blue Devils appear to be on their way to a six-loss regular season, and that’s simply too many defeats for a top seed. Up next for Duke is Georgia Tech at Cameron, and the Yellow Jackets may be the ACC team in the best position to join Duke on the top four lines of the field.

The ACC is balanced and, as such, it’s going to be hard for more than a team or two to win more than 10 conference games. That should set up well for the league getting at least half of its members into the NCAAs, but it could suffer in seeding. Clemson’s win over Maryland on Sunday puts the Tigers into a more comfortable position near the middle of the seed chart, while Wake Forest inches down toward Clemson after a 21-point loss at Georgia Tech. It appears likely that Clemson, Wake Forest and maybe four or five other teams will finish in the 8-8 or 9-7 range in conference.

I’ve already discussed Maryland, which needs more conference wins — probably 10 — to feel safe because of its poor play out of conference. Virginia and Virginia Tech are still in play, and both have similarly poor non-conference slates to overcome. VaTech’s loss to Miami on Saturday hurts a lot. UNC still lurks, but the Tar Heels will need to pick up the pace to get the .500 conference record that will put UNC in a good spot.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 3)
Georgia Tech (No. 5)
Florida State (No. 6)
Wake Forest (No. 8)
Clemson (No. 8)
Maryland (No. 12, second-to-last in)
North Carolina (10th-to-last out)

Big 12: Kansas inches past Syracuse as the overall top seed after the Jayhawks’ stirring overtime win in Manhattan on Saturday night (and the Orange’s earlier performance at DePaul). Meanwhile, I’ve held the Wildcats as a No. 2 seed despite the loss — neither Duke nor West Virginia was very compelling in this spot. Texas drops to a No. 3 seed after losing its third in four games. With two trips to Oklahoma this week, the Longhorns need to put together a string of victories or risk seeing their No. 1 seed slip away for good.

Missouri and Baylor make nice jumps after impressive wins. Missouri took care of Oklahoma State at home, and Baylor, of course, won in overtime at Texas. The Bears have a tentative grasp on a No. 4 seed, and a 10-6 conference record — they’re 3-3 now — should keep them there. OSU drops but is still in solid position as a No. 9 seed, but the Cowboys have a tricky week ahead, hosting Texas Monday night before traveling to Lubbock to play Texas Tech on Saturday. A&M’s big win over Tech moves the Aggies up a notch. Tech really needed that win to stay in the hunt, though that loss wasn’t nearly as devastating as Oklahoma’s defeat to Nebraska.

Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Texas (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 4)
Missouri (No. 6)
Oklahoma State (No. 9)
Texas A&M (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)

Big East: While Georgetown was solidifying itself on the No. 2 seedline and Syracuse was avoiding a damaging loss, the news was not as positive around much of the rest of the league. Louisville blew a double-digit lead to West Virginia in Morgantown, a win that would have made the Cardinals a very comfortable at-large team. As it stands, they’re among the last five in. Connecticut nearly came back to defeat Marquette but instead saw Jimmy Butler’s game-winning 12-footer put the Huskies on the precipice. In Piscataway, Rutgers likely took care of Notre Dame and Luke Harangody’s hopes of an NCAA appearance as a senior with a 74-73 win. On Sunday, Pittsburgh went down to South Florida and limped away the third straight Bulls’ victim.

One team’s loss is another’s gain, though, as Marquette and USF have now played their ways into a striking distance. The Golden Eagles have bounced back from that awful loss at DePaul and host DePaul this week before traveling to Providence, two games MU should — and needs to — win. The turning of the schedule in the Golden Eagles’ favor could get Marquette back in the field soon. USF, meanwhile, is as close to the bubble (about 12th out) as late in the season as it has been since joining the Big East. The Bulls’ next three games, though, are all on the road: at Georgetown, Notre Dame and Marquette. They’ll need at least one win in three to hang around the discussion.

Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 1)
Georgetown (No. 2)
West Virginia (No. 3)
Pittsburgh (No. 7)
Cincinnati (No. 9)
Connecticut (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing; fourth-to-last in)
Louisville (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Marquette (third-to-last out)
Seton Hall (eighth-to-last out)

Big Ten: Michigan State and Purdue continue to plug along with conference wins. Northwestern hung with MSU for a half but couldn’t keep contact in the second half, and winless Penn State was no match for Purdue in West Lafayette. Ohio State had the impressive win over Minnesota, and Wisconsin was on a bye. There’s a good chance that all four teams end up among the top 16 teams.

After the four definites, though, no one has stepped up. Northwestern couldn’t get a signature, albeit unlikely, win in East Lansing on Saturday. The Wildcats, now 3-6 in conference, face a long stretch of games against teams they will be expected to beat to keep the dream alive, beginning with Michigan and Indiana at home this week. Minnesota, likewise, is below .500 in conference but with its most difficult games in the rearview. The Gophers head to State College on Saturday.

Illinois has an uphill climb despite sitting at 6-3 in conference after Demetri McCamey’s game-winning floater against Indiana on Saturday. With home-and-homes against Wisconsin and Ohio State to come, the schedule is turning against the Illini, and they’ll need at least 11 conference wins to make up for their poor non-conference play. Of these three, Minnesota appears the most likely to make the NCAAs and Illinois the least, though I’d still not put the Gophers at any better than 50 percent.

Bid Breakdown:

Michigan State (No. 2)
Purdue (No. 2)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Ohio State (No. 5)
Minnesota (seventh-to-last out)

Pac-10: Whatever gap California had opened up on the rest of the Pac-10 was brusquely closed by Sean Miller and Arizona on Sunday. The Wildcats’ four-point win created a tie atop the conference halfway through league play. Despite a mediocre 12-9 record, Arizona has enough quality wins to be just outside the field this week. A 6-3 finish to the season will have Arizona knocking on the door once again.

Despite the loss, Cal is in solid shape with a decent finish to conference season, and the Bears are good enough to do that. The only other Pac-10 teams with a sniff at the field are Arizona State and Washington, but both will have to close hard — think 7-2 — to have a legitimate shot at a bid entering the Pac-10 Tournament.

Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Arizona (second-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky got its best win of the season on Saturday at home against Vanderbilt, and with the Wildcats’ would-be No. 1-seed successors — Duke, Texas, Kansas State — dropping like flies around them, Kentucky has a more comfortable hold on that last No. 1 seed. Any of the four No. 2 seeds could eventual supplant UK, but Georgetown and Kansas State each have four losses, and Michigan State and Purdue each have three. None will jump that gap as long as UK continues to win.

Tennessee got a crucial one-point home win over Florida on Sunday, one that halts a potential freefall, at least for now. A Gators win in Knoxville would have put them comfortably in the field, but it instead appears that Billy Donovan’s squad will continue its dance with the bubble into March for the third straight season.

Arkansas continued its campaign to derail any SEC West teams’ chances of making the NCAA Tournament by going down to Oxford and defeating the Rebels Sunday in a game postponed a day by bad weather. Mississippi now has a short turnaround before heading to Lexington on Tuesday. Mississippi State got healthy on LSU on Saturday but travels to Vandy and Florida this week. MSU would be about 18th out right now, but a win at Vandy would close that gap considerably.

Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 5)
Tennessee (No. 5)
Mississippi (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Florida (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing; third-to-last in)
South Carolina (last in)

Mid-Majors: Dayton was one of the toughest omissions this week, as was William & Mary. Despite doing well in my at-large model, both teams have poor conference records for squads in second- or third-tier leagues, and I haven’t observed the Committee showing a willingness to give teams like those the benefit of the doubt in recent seasons. Gonzaga’s loss to San Francisco should be damaging to the Bulldogs, though Gonzaga tends to get a one- or two-seed boost every year.

Wichita State continues to win and appears to be the latest second-best Missouri Valley team that will not get into the NCAA Tournament. Illinois State and Creighton each had strong arguments in 2008 and 2009 respectively, but neither was deemed to have a critical mass of quality wins to get the nod. With their strongest non-conference win over Texas Tech, the Shockers have an even less compelling case than their predecessors.

Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Brigham Young (No. 4)
Gonzaga (No. 6)
Temple (No. 4)
Rhode Island (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 7)
Xavier (No. 7)
Butler (No. 7)
UAB (No. 8)
UNLV (No. 8)
Saint Mary’s (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Siena (No. 10)
Charlotte (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Richmond (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Utah State (No. 12)
Cornell (No. 12)
Dayton (last out)
San Diego State (fourth-to-last out)
William & Mary (fifth-to-last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (sixth-to-last out)
Wichita State (eighth-to-last out)

Most of the interesting games were on Friday, so, it’s Friday’s games that account for most of my words on this Monday. I’ll be looking at Saturday and Sunday in subsequent posts.

Friday

Syracuse’s 87-71 win over North Carolina headlined the night’s action and rightfully so. Syracuse is a team that lost Jonny Flynn and two other key players from last year’s Sweet 16 team, and prior to last season, Syracuse had narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament twice in a row, so the Orange no longer give off the scent of a program that can simply reload.

Enter Wesley Johnson. Well acknowledging that his length and diverse skillset would be a huge asset for a team lacking both, I was very cautious about those who saw Johnson as an immediate star and potential Big East Player of the Year in his first season at Syracuse after transferring from Iowa State. Johnson had 25 points and eight rebounds on Friday, and that doesn’t convey the length he adds to Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone.

When you look at Syracuse’s figures above, notice that this one game is a replica of the Orange’s season thus far. Syracuse’s offense has been exceptional at hitting shots, especially 2-pointers — the Orange hit an incredible 59.6 against that imposing UNC frontcourt. The rest of the offensive for Syracuse, however, has been nothing special. Syracuse continues to turn the ball over too much, has not been great on the offensive glass and has not gotten to the line. It’s important to remember, though, that shooting is the overriding factor in an offense’s success and that the type of 2-pointers Syracuse has been making are not as beholden to fate as the 3-point shot.

It’s too early to say for sure, but it appears that Syracuse’s defense is its best in maybe five or six years. Syracuse has long been terrific at suppressing opponents’ shooting percentages and keeping them off the line with that 2-3 zone, and that has continued. The difference this year is that the Orange is forcing turnovers. The length and quickness of the Orange is getting in passing lanes to create turnovers. Those are leading to a lot of the easy buckets that have bolstered the 2-point percentage. If Syracuse can continue to force turnovers, the defense could be elite.

Elsewhere on Friday, DePaul defeated preseason MVC favorite Northern Iowa in the Paradise Jam opener, 60-52. Mac Koswhal had 12 points and 19 rebounds for the Blue Demons. Entering Friday, most — including myself — thought this was to be the first loss of the season for the Big East after a 34-0 start, and DePaul was to be the worst team in the league. The former would have to wait a few more hours, and the latter — we shall see. This win combined with DePaul’s four-point loss to nationally-ranked Tennessee on Sunday gives hope that things are getting better in Chicago.

In Puerto Rico, Villanova rarely seemed threatened by a good Dayton team in the semifinals of that tournament. Without anyone fouling out, the Cats had enough in the frontcourt to limit Chris Wright to just four rebounds. Villanova had eight more rebounds, made 10 more free throws and forced four more turnovers in a performance only incomplete because of poor shooting — 41.5 percent.

Seton Hall went to Cornell and won, 79-69, and Rutgers and St. John’s narrowly held off Drexel and Brown, respectively. So, it took until about 10 p.m. ET on the second Friday of the season, but Alabama defeated Providence, 84-75, to hand the Big East its first loss. Providence couldn’t keep the Tide off the foul line (27-for-35), couldn’t force turnovers (just eight) and couldn’t keep Alabama off the offensive glass (20 offensive rebounds). That’s not a good combination for playing good defense, even on a night when the opposite shot just 31.1 eFG in the first half. USF later lossed to South Carolina, 69-66, for another Big East defeat.

Among the other interesting results on Friday, Boston University defeated Indiana, 71-67, in Puerto Rico. Indiana couldn’t keep the Terriers off the foul line, where BU outscored IU, 29-14. Indiana would also lose to George Mason on Sunday, 69-66, to finish dead last in the Puerto Rico Tip-off. Another Big Ten team, Penn State fell to Tulane on Friday, 63-60. Talor Battle shot just 3-for-13, and PSU isn’t really good enough to beat anyone when Battle isn’t on. Ohio State did save some Big Ten face against Cal with a 76-70 win in the Coaches vs. Cancer consolation. Evan Turner had 26, 14 and six after his turnover-filled performance against UNC on Monday, but, as we were reminded of incessently, Cal is without two of its top players, Theo Robertson and Harper Kamp.

After the Big East and Big Ten, the SEC was the other conference that featured prominently on Friday. I’ve already mentioned that the league handed the Big East its first two losses. Mikhail Torrance had 26 points for Alabama, and JaMychal Green had 15 and 12. South Carolina made just 2-of-17 3-pointers but was able to force seven more turnovers by USF than the Gamecocks committed in a three-point win.

In Puerto Rico, Chris Warren and Terrico White combined for 52 Mississippi points in an 86-74 win over Kansas State that got the Rebels into the final against Villanova.

Of the Four Factors, the No. 1 for determining who wins a game is eFG, and it was again here. Ole Miss made 42 percent of its 3-pointers and 65 percent of its 2-pointers, and it’s just going to be very hard to beat a team when that happens. The best way to make up for that is at the free-throw line, but even there Andy Kennedy’s team held the advantage by eight makes. The shooting won’t continue at this clip — as we’ll see in the post on Sunday’s games — but Mississippi is top-20 good right now.

Vanderbilt scored a big win for itself and the league with a 72-70 defeat of St. Mary’s in Moraga, Calif. Vandy’s slightly better shooting — 50.9 to 46.7 eFG — made up for SMC’s seven more offensive rebounds, led by Omar Samhan’s five.

On the dimmer side, Arkansas needed overtime to get past Appalachian State, 81-72, and Auburn fell to Central Florida, 84-74, in Daytona. Jeff Lebo’s team is just lacking the depth of contributors it needs to win consistently. The Tigers lost again on Sunday by two points to N.C. State.

The last two games I wanted to mention from Friday involved Atlantic 10 teams. La Salle defeated Davidson in Charleston, S.C., 84-70, and St. Joseph’s knocked off Boston College, 84-80, in the Virgin Islands. In the latter game, BC wing Rakim Sanders played just four minutes before leaving with an injured ankle. He’s expected to miss 2-to-4 weeks. Despite having fewer turnovers and beating St. Joe’s on the glass, Al Skinner’s team couldn’t overcome St. Joe’s 10 3-pointers, especially while BC was making fewer than 40 percent of its 2-pointers. Joe Trapani — 4-for-12 on twos — and Reggie Jackson — 4-for-13 — were the major culprits.

As it turned out, Arkansas’ lack of depth caught up with it in the game’s final 15 minutes, and Louisville’s 3-point shooting and ball-hawking defense ended the competitive phase of this game. The 96-66 Louisville victory, while lacking the last-second drama of the nightcap of Tuesday’s doubleheader, still left plenty of interesting conclusions to glean.

Let’s start with the basic tempo-free team box:

For a team with just six scholarship players thanks to a bevy of suspensions, Arkansas did a pretty good job of taking care of the ball against Louisville’s zone press. Julysses Nobles had just two turnovers in 38 minutes as the point guard facing most of the heat from the Cardinals’ seemingly endless depth of aggressive guards. It was big man Mike Washington’s careless play — six turnovers — in just 28 minutes — that accounted for more than a third of the team total (16). The senior center was called for three travels and had two shots blocked in Arkansas’ first 21 possessions.

Still, Arkansas had 20 points in those 21 possessions and led, 20-19. Much of that was due to a 7-for-12 start from the field, but Arkansas would not maintain the hot shooting.

Arkansas was also unable to capitalize on Louisville’s defensive overaggression. The Cardinals, who don’t apologize about their desire to physically harass opposing ball-handlers for 96 feet, committed 24 fouls and sent the Razorbacks to the line for 28 free-throw attempts. Free-throw rate was the only of the four factors where Arkansas actually outperformed Louisville, but if John Pelphrey’s team could have made more than 17-of-28 free throws (60.7 percent), it could have hung around a bit longer.

One of the hidden keys to Louisville’s defense is the referees’ permissiveness. Rick Pitino’s teams incessantly swipe at guards in an attempt to pick up steals or rattle them into turnovers. It’s hard to call every hack that doesn’t get all ball, and even the best referees will miss many, which is part of the effectiveness of Louisville’s press. The Cards’ most judicious foulers last season — Earl Clark and Terrence Williams — were rare in their ability to combine defensive activity without fouling. They’re now gone, so nights like this, when the officials had a more literal interpretation of the rulebook, Louisville can put its opponents into the bonus early. A better, deeper team might have made Louisville pay for its indiscretion.

As it was, Louisville put the game away with two runs, the first built around the 3-pointer. Louisville closed out the first half on a 30-11 run across a 19-possession span for each team. Eighteen of those 30 points came on 3-pointers. Reginald Delk hit two of them — he had a game-high 20 off the bench — Jared Swopshire hit two, Jerry Smith hit one and Edgar Sosa the other. Louisville shot 9-of-20 (45 percent on 3-pointers in the first half). Few teams, certainly none with six scholarship players, can survive that type of barrage, especially when the Cards follow each make with full-court pressure.

Louisville took a 17-point halftime lead into the locker room but returned from the intermission by sleepily permitting Arkansas to get back in the game with a 14-0 run. In that span, Louisville missed five 3-pointers and had three turnovers.

The Cardinals offense is going to have these types of stretches if it doesn’t work through Samardo Samuels on the interior. Samuels was 6-for-11 from the field with a team-high seven free-throw attempts, this despite a maddening inability to finish several from close range. Samuels should be the go-to guy in this offense, because of his efficiency and ability to draw double-teams. The concern, though, is that Samuels will not find the right player out of the rotation, as he’s displayed a Yinka Dare-like assist rate in his brief college career (exaggerating for the purpose of making a point). That will need to improve for Louisville to be more than a 3-point bombing offense with a few fast breaks and dumpdowns mixed in.

Even when the Razorbacks moved within three points at 48-45, it never seemed like they were a real threat to Louisville, and, indeed, the Cards responded with a 17-3 run that put the game out of reach at 65-48 with 11:32 left in the game.

This run was built on transition baskets. A Delk steal led to a layup by Sosa on a pass from Preston Knowles. Smith stole the ball from Rotnei Clarke, which led to another Knowles to Sosa easy bucket. Terrence Jennings blocked a Marshawn Powell shot, and that led to a Knowles dish to Kyle Kuric for a layup. Louisville is at its most dangerous creating offense out of defense, and Arkansas wasn’t disciplined, fit or talented enough to work for the kind of shots that the Cards wouldn’t be able to turn into easy baskets.

One of the subplots entering the game was how Clarke would do against a talented defense. He had scored 50 in a 62-point win over Alcorn State on Friday. Louisville put an emphasis on finding Clarke in the zone, putting long-armed or lightning-quick defenders between the sophomore and a good look. Clarke still had a good game, making 6-of-11 shots, including three 3-pointers, but he wasn’t able to free himself up for enough shots. There’s no way that two other teammates should have attempted more shots than him. Whether it was Pelphrey’s inability to draw up sets to get Clarke good shots, Clarke’s lack of quickness in getting to open spots or Louisville’s athletic and well-prepared defense, Clarke wasn’t able to make the impact he needed to for Arkansas to be competitive.

Arkansas will get better as it starts to get its players back — Stefan Welsh should be reinstated for the ‘Backs next game against Appalachian State — but it’s unclear whether Arkansas will be good enough to challenge for a postseason berth. The offense and defense both have to make a lot of progress, namely in defending the 3-pointer and controlling the glass.

As for Louisville, the defense looks strong again, especially as Swopshire appears to be growing into the role of a rangy player who can get in passing lanes and rebound on both glasses. The offense will get better as it learns how to play without Williams and Clark. Working through Samuels and depending less on the 3-point shot will help the Cards be more consistent, but the 3-point shot and transition offense will necessarily be major parts of this offense, as they always are with Rick Pitino teams. A little less Edgar Sosa — 4-for-12 on Tuesday, 2-for-8 from deep — would help as well.

The Cards’ next test should come at UNLV on Nov. 28 before Western Kentucky comes to Louisville on Dec. 19. Both of those teams defeating Louisville last season. The first matchup between Pitino and John Calipari with their current schools will be in Lexington on Jan. 2, three days after UofL’s conference season opener at home against USF.

Team of the week: Mississippi. There is great popular support behind Andy Kennedy getting the Rebels to break through and make the NCAAs in this his fourth season, and their opening performance won’t weaken that support. Chris Warren was back and healthy. He didn’t shoot well (1-for-7 from deep), but he did have seven steals in a 92-64 win over a decent Arkansas-Little Rock team. Mississippi forced 22 turnovers and, as a result, attempted 22 more field goals than the Trojans. Senior DeAundre Cranston scored 21 points in just 21 minutes.

Disappointing Performance: Mississippi State. Rick Stansbury picked a tough opener for his team, but with so much talent coming back, he’d probably didn’t think it would be a problem. He was wrong, of course. Rider made 10-of-16 3-pointers, led by Ryan Thompson’s 4-for-6 performance, and everyone not named “Jarvis Varnado” combined to make just 8-of-27 2-pointers for the Bulldogs. It was a shame to waste Varnado’s 22-point, 14-rebound, seven-block, 8-for-8-from-the-field performance, but, alas, wasted it was.

Upcoming: On Monday, Auburn travels to Missouri State out of the Missouri Valley. The next day, Arkansas will try to push its luck against Louisville in St. Louis. Despite several suspensions, Arkansas defeated Alcorn State, 130-68, on Friday led by a magnificent 50-point performance from Rotnei Clark. It’s important to note that Alcorn State stinks — the Braves lost to Ohio State by 40 earlier in the week — but Clarke’s performance is notable nonetheless.

On Thursday, Mississippi and South Carolina open up play in tournaments. The Rebels get Indiana in Puerto Rico, and the Gamecocks play LaSalle in Charleston, S.C. On Friday, Alabama tries to rebound at home against Providence. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt visits St. Mary’s, and Auburn heads to Daytona Beach to play UCF. Tennessee also opens up play in the Paradise Jam against East Carolina. On Saturday, Georgia visits UAB, while Kentucky hosts Rider. Finally, Auburn plays N.C. State, again in Daytona, on Sunday.

Team of the week: South Florida. The opening win was a departure from the Bulls’ typical pre-conference play. For once, the offense was actually good.

The Bulls have not been a good shooting team for a while, but the difference in eFG was, basically, the margin of victory. Augustus Gilchrist’s 8-for-12, including a 3-pointer, was a big reason why the shooting efficiency was better. Chris Howard’s 6-for-6 from inside didn’t hurt either. We’ll learn a lot more about the Bulls in the week ahead.

Worst performance: Though the Pirates partially made up for Friday’s stinker with a 15-point road win at Monmouth on Sunday, Seton Hall’s should’ve-been loss to St. Peter’s still reeks. That a team with sincere NCAA Tournament hopes should struggle so much at home against a middling MAAC team is disconcerting. Seton Hall trailed for much of the game against the Peacocks before a one-handed, buzzer-beating three from senior Eugene Harvey saved the day. With Keon Lawrence suspended indefinitely, Bobby Gonzalez’s team looks painfully thin. Six players played all but 11 minutes on Friday. On the bright side, to win a game when your best player and shooter — Jeremy Hazell — goes 0-for-10 and finishes with two points is a good thing. Hazell did follow up that performance with 26 points in Sunday’s win over Monmouth.

Upcoming: On Monday, USF looks to continue its strong start by handing the ACC its first loss. UVa will visit the Sun Dome. Also on Monday, Cincinnati opens its season at home against Prairie View A&M, and Villanova hosts Big 5 opponent, Penn. Tuesday brings an intriguing Arkansas team to St. Louis for Louisville’s opener. The Razorbacks, despite having about half their team suspended, scored 130 in an opening win over Alcorn State on Friday. Also on Tuesday, a solid Temple team heads to Georgetown. On the same day, Pittsburgh hopes to show improvement when it hosts much-maligned Binghamton. St. John’s will also travel up to Rochester, N.Y., to play St. Bonaventure, and DePaul opens at home against Columbia.

On Thursday, three teams will begin play in in-season tournaments. Villanova plays George Mason at the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. Nova will play either Dayton or Georgia Tech in the second round. Mississippi and Kansas State await the Wildcats on the other side of the bracket. USF has another tough game when it heads to Charleston to play Davidson in the Charleston Classic. USF will play LaSalle or South Carolina in Round 2. Miami (Fla.) and Penn State are the strongest teams on the other side of the bracket.

It’s also Thursday when Syracuse fans will take Madison Square Garden by storm as the Orange take on Jerome Randle and the Cal Bears. UNC or Ohio State will await the Orange on Friday.

Friday will see three more Big East teams tested away from home. Seton Hall travels to Cornell, the Ivy League favorite and the team that just defeated Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The 3-0 Providence Friars head south to play said Alabama team the same night. Finally, DePaul opens up play in the U.S. Virgin Islands Paradise Jam with a matchup against Missouri Valley favorite Northern Iowa. DePaul will see either East Carolina or Tennessee in the second round.

Massachusetts at Central Florida (7 p.m. ET): A pair of middling mid-majors go at it in Orlando on Friday night. For UMass, it’s finally time to put a terrible 2008-09 season in the rearview mirror. Last winter was nothing short of a disaster for a Minuteman team coming off of a 25-win season and returning an all-conference backcourt. What UMass did not return, though, was its coach, Travis Ford, who left for Oklahoma State. Folks in Amherst expected Ford to take UMass back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1998, but instead, he was helping those in Stillwater end a four-year drought. Derek Kellogg came in with an entirely new system, and the Minuteman never quite made the adjustment. A schizophrenic team, UMass started 1-6, later defeated Kansas, Dayton, Temple and Rhode Island, but still finished just 12-18.

The poor year wasted the senior seasons of Chris Lowe, Luke Bonner and breakout star Tony Gaffney, but all-league guard Ricky Harris returns along with Wake Forest transfer Anthony Gurley and highly-touted recruit Terrell Vinson. Gurley was, for all intents and purposes, a failure in his first season in Amherst, showing the ability to hit an outside shot (his 56 makes was second on the team to Harris’ 87) but do little else. The 6-foot-7 Vinson got an offer from Providence and was also recruited by Maryland and Cincinnati but wound up with Kellogg in the Atlantic 10. He will be asked to replace some of the rebounding Gaffney took with him as Vinson develops his offensive game. Oregon State transfer 6-foot-9 Sean Carter was active in a narrow exhibition win over Dowling (N.Y.) on Saturday and could give UMass a big boost in the frontcourt.

Central Florida has been one of the underrated mid-major winners since joining the Conference USA for the 2005-06 season, but the Knights’ 7-9 conference record last season is their low-water mark. Despite Jermaine Taylor’s fantastic season — he was responsible for more possessions while on the floor than any other player in the nation — UCF was only mediocre on offense and even worse on defense. After starting 15-6 and 5-2 in conference and appearing poised for a postseason berth, UCF lost 8-of-10 — including a home loss to lowly Rice.

With Taylor gone, there are a lot of possessions to be had, and, with 6-foot-7 senior Tony Davis ruled ineligible to play this season, it’s unclear who will step into the void for Kirk Speraw’s team. Sophomores P.J. Gaynor and A.J. Rompza were the most active offensive players in UCF’s initial game last week against St. Leo’s (Fla.).

There don’t seem to be a lot of answers for Central Florida against a UMass team returning the type of all-league guard UCF is trying to replace. It may not foretell a hugely successful season to come, but I like the Minutemen to get off on the right foot with a road victory.

USF at SMU (8:30 p.m. ET): In Year 3 of Stan Heath’s tenure, the Bulls return enough and add enough to be a real surprise in the Big East. First, the old. Dominique Jones is simply one of the best all-around scorers in the Big East. He also has a rare combination of distribution and care with the ball for a lead guard. The dependable but largely irrelevant Chris Howard returns as Jones’ backcourt mate, and mid-year transfer Mike Mercer will also get plenty of opportunities to turn his exceptional athleticism into actual production. Anthony Crater, a transfer point guard from Ohio State, will be eligible by the end of December, and by then, Heath should know whether Crater’s a better option than Howard or Crater.

USF’s frontcourt is also stacked with transfers. There’s Augustus Gilchrist, who had to sit out a semester last season after decommitting late from Maryland. Besides the ability to block shots, he showed little of the interior presence he was supposed to come to Tampa with, but that’s why freshmen become sophomores. Junior-college transfer Jarrid Famous could have a game to match his name, and he should be the No. 2 offensive option for Heath. Famous had 20 points, eight rebounds and six assists with no turnovers in a blowout win over Florida Southern in what Bulls fans hope is a sign of things to come. The more I type, the more I think that my 14th-place prediction was too conservative.

Matt Doherty is entering his fourth season as head coach at SMU — after the flameout at his alma mater, UNC, and a one-year rendezvous at Florida Atlantic — and the Mustangs haven’t won more than four conference games in any of his first three seasons. This season, everyone of import except shot-blocker Bamba Fall returns for Doherty, most notably the backcourt of Derek Williams and Paul McCoy. Neither player left the floor much last season out of necessity, and McCoy was voted to the C-USA all-conference third team thanks to his ability to score reasonably efficiently and to pick up steals at the other end of the floor. SMU, after a last-place finish last season, was bumped up to ninth in the preseason coaches poll this year.

If Doherty is to succeed at SMU, one would figure that positive results would come by the end of Year 4. He has plenty returning, but only the next four months will tell us whether the players he’s brought in are good enough to win big, even in the Conference USA. They haven’t been so far.

Heath, on the other hand, has used USF’s Big East affiliation to be extremely aggressive in remaking his roster into something capable of competing in the Big East. He’s been able to attract the unsatisfied and the wayfarer to his program, and perhaps that all comes together this season with wins in conference — his teams are 7-28 against conference opponents over the last two seasons. He’s got two years to turn this roster into a contender before Jones leaves, and the next step on that journey is Friday night. Heath’s teams have not won a road opener since Dec. 7, 2004 when his Arkansas team defeated Missouri by 10.

I’ll be back tomorrow with the games to look out for on Saturday and Sunday.