February 25, 2010 –
by Brendon
I happened to catch about 10 seconds too much of some ESPN show this morning and saw that Mississippi State was Joe Lunardi’s last team in the NCAA Tournament field as of today. I try to avoid Lunardi’s thoughts on brackets, because it can be disinformation. Among experienced bracket projectors he is sub-mediocre. But on this I feel the need to comment.
Mississippi State, huh? I know the record is pretty — 20-8 overall and 8-5 in conference — but has anyone bothered to check who Mississippi State has beaten? The Bulldogs’ only win over a top-50 RPI or Pomeroy team this season was a 69-55 victory over Old Dominion in South Padre Island, Texas, on Nov. 28. Their next best wins are two against rival Mississippi. In its three games against top-25 teams, Rick Stansbury’s squad has lost to Richmond on a neutral court, Kentucky at home and Vanderbilt in Nashville. All three games have been close, but all three were losses. Oh, and MSU has also lost four times to teams outside the RPI top 100: Rider, Western Kentucky, Arkansas, Alabama. Read More »
Posted in SEC
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Tagged Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Joe Lunardi, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Old Dominion, Richmond, Rider, SEC, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Western Kentucky
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February 5, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.
It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.
Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Augustus Gilchrist, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Brigham Young, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Connecticut, Cornell, Dayton, DePaul, Derrick Williams, Dominique Jones, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Leonard Hamilton, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Robert Morris, Rutgers, Scott Drew, SEC, Seton Hall, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Stan Heath, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington, Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier
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February 1, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Breakdown: Perhaps the most difficult aspect to building this bracket was finding that last No. 3 seed. Out of Purdue, Kansas State, Duke, Texas and West Virginia, it was clear that two of them would be No. 2 seeds and three would be No. 3 seeds, but there was no obvious choice to fill out that third line. Just like in the last projection, I went with New Mexico over Brigham Young and any other team — Wisconsin, Tennessee, Baylor, Temple, Ohio State, Georgia Tech — that might have had a claim.
The good thing is that none of those teams had a very strong claim at that spot. New Mexico was the choice because its five wins against top-50 teams was more than any other team that hadn’t been bracketed, except Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, which also have five. New Mexico’s record (20-3), combined with a head-to-head win over Brigham Young, a six-game winning streak and a 10th ranking in my seeding model put the Lobos over the top. I’m not sure what the Selection Committee would do if presented this scenario, but the only other teams I could see them bracketing here are BYU, who — again — has lost to New Mexico head-to-head, or Ohio State, if the Buckeyes were given a complete pass for losses suffered when Evan Turner was injured. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Baylor, Billy Donovan, Brigham Young, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Creighton, Dayton, Demetri McCamey, DePaul, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Illinois State, Indiana, Jimmy Butler, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rutgers, Sean Miller, South Carolina, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple, Tennesse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State, William & Mary, Wisconsin
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November 23, 2009 –
by Brendon
After perusing all of the scores from this weekend, I count 36 that were particularly meaningful, and I’m probably underselling others. While the opening weekend of the college basketball was exciting because it was new, we definitely learned a lot more over the last three days simply because there were games that could go either way. We saw the Big East get its first loss — four of them, in fact. We saw Big Ten teams place seventh and eighth in eight-team tournaments. And at Madison Square Garden on Friday, we saw Syracuse complete the most impressive two-game stretch of the season.
Most of the interesting games were on Friday, so, it’s Friday’s games that account for most of my words on this Monday. I’ll be looking at Saturday and Sunday in subsequent posts.
Friday
Syracuse’s 87-71 win over North Carolina headlined the night’s action and rightfully so. Syracuse is a team that lost Jonny Flynn and two other key players from last year’s Sweet 16 team, and prior to last season, Syracuse had narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament twice in a row, so the Orange no longer give off the scent of a program that can simply reload.
Enter Wesley Johnson. Well acknowledging that his length and diverse skillset would be a huge asset for a team lacking both, I was very cautious about those who saw Johnson as an immediate star and potential Big East Player of the Year in his first season at Syracuse after transferring from Iowa State. Johnson had 25 points and eight rebounds on Friday, and that doesn’t convey the length he adds to Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone.
|
Poss |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Reb |
FTR |
| North Carolina |
76 |
0.93 |
0.413 |
0.250 |
0.432 |
0.302 |
| Syracuse |
76 |
1.14 |
0.610 |
0.210 |
0.343 |
0.059 |
When you look at Syracuse’s figures above, notice that this one game is a replica of the Orange’s season thus far. Syracuse’s offense has been exceptional at hitting shots, especially 2-pointers — the Orange hit an incredible 59.6 against that imposing UNC frontcourt. The rest of the offensive for Syracuse, however, has been nothing special. Syracuse continues to turn the ball over too much, has not been great on the offensive glass and has not gotten to the line. It’s important to remember, though, that shooting is the overriding factor in an offense’s success and that the type of 2-pointers Syracuse has been making are not as beholden to fate as the 3-point shot. Read More »
Posted in Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Appalachian State, Arkansas, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Big East, Big Ten, Boston College, Boston University, Brown, California, Central Florida, Chris Warren, Chris Wright, Cornell, Davidson, Dayton, DePaul, Drexel, George Mason, Indiana, Iowa State, JaMychal Green, Jeff Lebo, Jim Boeheim, Joe Trapani, Jonny Flynn, Kansas State, La Salle, Mac Koshwal, Mikhail Torrance, Mississippi, Missouri Valley, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, Providence, Rakim Sanders, Reggie Jackson, Rutgers, SEC, Seton Hall, South Carolina, St. John's, St. Joseph's, St. Mary's, Syracuse, Talor Battle, Tennessee, Terrico White, Tulane, USF, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Wesley Johnson
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November 18, 2009 –
by Brendon
In retrospect, it was bad planning that I chose Arkansas-Louisville rather than the game that followed it, Memphis-Kansas, as the first game of the new season on which to take possession-by-possession notes. Still, there’s nothing as useful as taking possession data by hand to give me a good sense of a team and its players.
As it turned out, Arkansas’ lack of depth caught up with it in the game’s final 15 minutes, and Louisville’s 3-point shooting and ball-hawking defense ended the competitive phase of this game. The 96-66 Louisville victory, while lacking the last-second drama of the nightcap of Tuesday’s doubleheader, still left plenty of interesting conclusions to glean.
Let’s start with the basic tempo-free team box:
|
Poss |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Reb |
FTR |
| Arkansas |
76 |
0.87 |
0.422 |
0.211 |
0.262 |
0.293 |
| Louisville |
75 |
1.26 |
0.568 |
0.132 |
0.390 |
0.178 |
For a team with just six scholarship players thanks to a bevy of suspensions, Arkansas did a pretty good job of taking care of the ball against Louisville’s zone press. Julysses Nobles had just two turnovers in 38 minutes as the point guard facing most of the heat from the Cardinals’ seemingly endless depth of aggressive guards. It was big man Mike Washington’s careless play — six turnovers — in just 28 minutes — that accounted for more than a third of the team total (16). The senior center was called for three travels and had two shots blocked in Arkansas’ first 21 possessions. Read More »
Posted in Big East, Game of the Night, SEC
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Tagged Alcorn State, Appalachian State, Arkansas, Big East, Earl Clark, Edgar Sosa, Jared Swopshire, Jerry Smith, John Pelphrey, Julysses Nobles, Kansas, Kentucky, Kyle Kuric, Louisville, Marshawn Powell, Memphis, Mike Washington, Preston Knowles, Reginald Delk, Rick Pitino, Rotnei Clarke, Samardo Samuels, SEC, Stefan Welsh, Terrence Jennings, Terrence Williams, UNLV, USF, Western Kentucky, Yinka Dare
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November 15, 2009 –
by Brendon
In sum: It wasn’t a pretty weekend for the SEC West against small Northeast programs. After Auburn nearly fell to Niagara on Friday night, Mississippi State did lose to Rider. A day later, Cornell knocked off Alabama in Anthony Grant’s debut. As a whole, the league went 8-2, and, in the most highly anticipated game, Kentucky defeated Morehead State behind terrific play from freshman Eric Bledsoe and junior Patrick Patterson.
Team of the week: Mississippi. There is great popular support behind Andy Kennedy getting the Rebels to break through and make the NCAAs in this his fourth season, and their opening performance won’t weaken that support. Chris Warren was back and healthy. He didn’t shoot well (1-for-7 from deep), but he did have seven steals in a 92-64 win over a decent Arkansas-Little Rock team. Mississippi forced 22 turnovers and, as a result, attempted 22 more field goals than the Trojans. Senior DeAundre Cranston scored 21 points in just 21 minutes. Read More »
Posted in Reviews/Previews, SEC
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Tagged Alabama, Alcorn State, Andy Kennedy, Anthony Grant, Arkansas, Arkansas-Little Rock, Auburn, Chris Warren, Cornell, DeAundre Cranston, Eric Bledsoe, Georgia, Indiana, Jarvis Varnado, Kentucky, LaSalle, Louisville, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri State, Morehead State, Niagara, North Carolina State, Ohio State, Patrick Patterson, Providence, Rick Stansbury, Rider, Rotnei Clarke, Ryan Thompson, SEC, South Carolina, St. Mary's, Tennessee, UAB, UCF, Vanderbilt
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November 15, 2009 –
by Brendon
In sum: It wasn’t always pretty, but the Big East emerged from the season’s first week unscathed with a 17-0 record. Seton Hall and Pittsburgh both narrowly escaped home losses on Friday night, while Providence nearly blew a 19-point lead in defeating Mercer on Sunday. All in all, it’s a good start for a league that figures to go through some growing pains in the pre-conference schedule.
Team of the week: South Florida. The opening win was a departure from the Bulls’ typical pre-conference play. For once, the offense was actually good.
|
Poss |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Reb |
FTR |
| USF |
63 |
1.06 |
0.55 |
0.21 |
0.26 |
0.32 |
| SMU |
63 |
0.97 |
0.47 |
0.19 |
0.29 |
0.21 |
The Bulls have not been a good shooting team for a while, but the difference in eFG was, basically, the margin of victory. Augustus Gilchrist’s 8-for-12, including a 3-pointer, was a big reason why the shooting efficiency was better. Chris Howard’s 6-for-6 from inside didn’t hurt either. We’ll learn a lot more about the Bulls in the week ahead. Read More »
Posted in Big East, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Alabama, Alcorn State, Arkansas, Augustus Gilchrist, Big East, Binghamton, Bobby Gonzalez, California, Chris Howard, Cincinnati, Columbia, Cornell, Dayton, DePaul, East Carolina, Eugene Harvey, George Mason, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Jeremy Hazell, Jerome Randle, Kansas State, Keon Lawrence, LaSalle, Louisville, Mercer, Miami (Fla.), Mississippi, Monmouth, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Ohio State, Penn, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Prairie View A&M, Providence, Seton Hall, South Carolina, St. Bonaventure, St. John's, St. Peter's, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, USF, Villanova, Virginia
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November 12, 2009 –
by Brendon
The season’s first weekend of games gives us an underwhelming slate, but there are still a few games you may want to keep your eye on, even if that just means reloading the online box score a few times. I’ll be giving you a couple of games of note for each night this weekend, starting with Friday.
Massachusetts at Central Florida (7 p.m. ET): A pair of middling mid-majors go at it in Orlando on Friday night. For UMass, it’s finally time to put a terrible 2008-09 season in the rearview mirror. Last winter was nothing short of a disaster for a Minuteman team coming off of a 25-win season and returning an all-conference backcourt. What UMass did not return, though, was its coach, Travis Ford, who left for Oklahoma State. Folks in Amherst expected Ford to take UMass back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1998, but instead, he was helping those in Stillwater end a four-year drought. Derek Kellogg came in with an entirely new system, and the Minuteman never quite made the adjustment. A schizophrenic team, UMass started 1-6, later defeated Kansas, Dayton, Temple and Rhode Island, but still finished just 12-18. Read More »
Posted in Big East, Mid-Majors, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged A.J. Rompza, Anthony Crater, Anthony Gurley, Arkansas, Atlantic-10, Augustus Gilchrist, Bamba Fall, Big East, Central Florida, Chris Howard, Chris Lowe, Cincinnati, Conference USA, Dayton, Derek Williams, Dominique Jones, Florida Atlantic, Jarrid Famous, Jermaine Taylor, Kansas, Keith Speraw, Luke Bonner, Massachusetts, Matt Doherty, Mike Mercer, North Carolina, P.J. Gaynor, Paul McCoy, Providence, Rhode Island, Rice, Ricky Harris, Sean Carter, SMU, Stan Heath, Temple, Terrell Vinson, Tony Davis, Tony Gaffney, USF, Wake Forest
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