February 25, 2010 –
by Brendon
I happened to catch about 10 seconds too much of some ESPN show this morning and saw that Mississippi State was Joe Lunardi’s last team in the NCAA Tournament field as of today. I try to avoid Lunardi’s thoughts on brackets, because it can be disinformation. Among experienced bracket projectors he is sub-mediocre. But on this I feel the need to comment.
Mississippi State, huh? I know the record is pretty — 20-8 overall and 8-5 in conference — but has anyone bothered to check who Mississippi State has beaten? The Bulldogs’ only win over a top-50 RPI or Pomeroy team this season was a 69-55 victory over Old Dominion in South Padre Island, Texas, on Nov. 28. Their next best wins are two against rival Mississippi. In its three games against top-25 teams, Rick Stansbury’s squad has lost to Richmond on a neutral court, Kentucky at home and Vanderbilt in Nashville. All three games have been close, but all three were losses. Oh, and MSU has also lost four times to teams outside the RPI top 100: Rider, Western Kentucky, Arkansas, Alabama. Read More »
Posted in SEC
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Tagged Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Joe Lunardi, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Old Dominion, Richmond, Rider, SEC, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Western Kentucky
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February 12, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Bracketing Challenges: This bracket came together well, but there were still a few challenges. Most notably, any of the last three teams in the field could easily be omitted. South Carolina, Texas Tech and VCU have thin cases, but I found them marginally more compelling than Mississippi, Florida, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and Louisville. If the bracket were announced today, I would not be very confident in those final three teams.
The other challenge continues to be in filling out the top four seedlines. Finding the last two No. 3 seeds was particularly difficult with the poor play of Texas and after Wisconsin’s home defeat to Illinois. Still, the full-season profiles of those two teams remains stronger than Vanderbilt, Gonzaga and the others on the No. 4 seedline. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Bruce Weber, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Cornell, Demetri McCamey, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Harvard, Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, Ivy League, Jerome Randle, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Pat Knight, Purdue, Richmond, Rick Barnes, SEC, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, South Carolina, South Florida, St. John's, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin
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February 5, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.
It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.
Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Augustus Gilchrist, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Brigham Young, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Connecticut, Cornell, Dayton, DePaul, Derrick Williams, Dominique Jones, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Leonard Hamilton, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Robert Morris, Rutgers, Scott Drew, SEC, Seton Hall, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Stan Heath, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington, Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier
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January 29, 2010 –
by Brendon
Printable Version of Bracket »
Notes: First, automatic bids for each conference are determined by conference record with tiebreakers broken by rank in our BTI model, not by head-to-head or other conference tiebreakers. Of course, every conference except for the Ivy League determines its ultimate automatic bid with a tournament, so conference tiebreakers really don’t matter much for our purposes. Second, there is one potential regular-season rematch in the first two rounds, and that’s in the South where Kentucky and Connecticut could meet. There was already a Big East team in the other three spots where a No. 9 seed could go, and the priority is keeping teams on their true seedlines over avoiding rematches.
Breakdown: In the end, I guess all of this was just bluster. The point of this bracket projection — even in January — is to accurately determine what the Selection Committee would do if it had to select and seed the field today. With that as the overriding standard, I found myself unable to move Texas or Duke ahead of Kentucky for the last No. 1 seed. If I wanted to make a bracket of what should happen, we’d have an entirely different projection. UK is still just 13th in the BTI seeding model, but that is a seeding model based on an entire season of play and pro-rated for what’s happened so far. This is a bracket based on less than three months of play, and so sometimes we’re left with guesswork. My best guess is that Kentucky would get the nod over Duke and Texas right now. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged A.J. Ogilvy, ACC, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Monday, Big Ten, Boston College, Brigham Young, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colonial, Connecticut, Courtney Fortson, Dayton, DePaul, Duke, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia, Illinois, Ivy League, Jeffrey Taylor, Jermaine Beal, John Jenkins, Jon Leuer, Kansas, Kansas State, Ken Pomeroy, Kentucky, LaSalle, Louisville, LSU, Maryland, Massachusetts, Matt Painter, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Oliver Purnell, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Rick Barnes, Rick Stansbury, San Diego State, Sean Miller, SEC, Seth Greenberg, South Carolina, South Florida, St. Joseph's, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Texas, Texas A&M, Travis Ford, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Virgina Tech, Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, William & Mary, Wisconsin, Xavier
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December 2, 2009 –
by Brendon
The ACC-Big Ten Challenge is closing its 11th edition Wednesday night, and the conference from the Midwest has yet to win it. Five times — including last year — the Big Ten has come up just a game short. Someday the National League will lose the All-Star Game to the American League again, and someday the ACC will fall to the Big Ten. Could that day be today? The oddsmakers put it at just about even money.
The two conferences enter the last day of the challenge with three wins each. The Big Ten took a 3-0 lead in the series when it swept the 7:00 games on Tuesday night, Purdue pulling away from Wake Forest, 70-59, and Northwestern going down to Raleigh and schooling NC State, 65-53. This after Penn State squeaked past Virginia in Charlottesville on Monday night.
The ACC, though, is a resilient league, and the later tip-offs on Tuesday all went its way. Maryland visited hapless Indiana and won by 12. North Carolina hosted Michigan State in a rematch of April’s national title game, and the Tar Heels prevailed again behind Ed Davis, 89-82. Iowa hung with Virginia Tech for most of Tuesday’s final game, but the Hokies slipped away at the end, 70-64. Read More »
Posted in ACC, Big Ten, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged ACC, ACC-Big Ten Challenge, Al Skinner, Alabama, Big Ten, Bo Ryan, Boston College, Bradley, Brian Zoubek, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Duke, Ed Davis, Evan Turner, Florida State, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Marquette, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rakim Sanders, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Utah, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Wisconsin, Wofford
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November 23, 2009 –
by Brendon
After perusing all of the scores from this weekend, I count 36 that were particularly meaningful, and I’m probably underselling others. While the opening weekend of the college basketball was exciting because it was new, we definitely learned a lot more over the last three days simply because there were games that could go either way. We saw the Big East get its first loss — four of them, in fact. We saw Big Ten teams place seventh and eighth in eight-team tournaments. And at Madison Square Garden on Friday, we saw Syracuse complete the most impressive two-game stretch of the season.
Most of the interesting games were on Friday, so, it’s Friday’s games that account for most of my words on this Monday. I’ll be looking at Saturday and Sunday in subsequent posts.
Friday
Syracuse’s 87-71 win over North Carolina headlined the night’s action and rightfully so. Syracuse is a team that lost Jonny Flynn and two other key players from last year’s Sweet 16 team, and prior to last season, Syracuse had narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament twice in a row, so the Orange no longer give off the scent of a program that can simply reload.
Enter Wesley Johnson. Well acknowledging that his length and diverse skillset would be a huge asset for a team lacking both, I was very cautious about those who saw Johnson as an immediate star and potential Big East Player of the Year in his first season at Syracuse after transferring from Iowa State. Johnson had 25 points and eight rebounds on Friday, and that doesn’t convey the length he adds to Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone.
|
Poss |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Reb |
FTR |
| North Carolina |
76 |
0.93 |
0.413 |
0.250 |
0.432 |
0.302 |
| Syracuse |
76 |
1.14 |
0.610 |
0.210 |
0.343 |
0.059 |
When you look at Syracuse’s figures above, notice that this one game is a replica of the Orange’s season thus far. Syracuse’s offense has been exceptional at hitting shots, especially 2-pointers — the Orange hit an incredible 59.6 against that imposing UNC frontcourt. The rest of the offensive for Syracuse, however, has been nothing special. Syracuse continues to turn the ball over too much, has not been great on the offensive glass and has not gotten to the line. It’s important to remember, though, that shooting is the overriding factor in an offense’s success and that the type of 2-pointers Syracuse has been making are not as beholden to fate as the 3-point shot. Read More »
Posted in Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Appalachian State, Arkansas, Atlantic-10, Auburn, Big East, Big Ten, Boston College, Boston University, Brown, California, Central Florida, Chris Warren, Chris Wright, Cornell, Davidson, Dayton, DePaul, Drexel, George Mason, Indiana, Iowa State, JaMychal Green, Jeff Lebo, Jim Boeheim, Joe Trapani, Jonny Flynn, Kansas State, La Salle, Mac Koshwal, Mikhail Torrance, Mississippi, Missouri Valley, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, Providence, Rakim Sanders, Reggie Jackson, Rutgers, SEC, Seton Hall, South Carolina, St. John's, St. Joseph's, St. Mary's, Syracuse, Talor Battle, Tennessee, Terrico White, Tulane, USF, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Wesley Johnson
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November 16, 2009 –
by Brendon
In sum: Dayton did what it needed to do on Saturday. After falling behind early, Chris Wright led the Flyers to victory over Creighton in a crucial early-season matchup for the Flyers and their conference. Phil Martelli got his St. Joseph’s Hawks off on a positive start with an overtime victory over Philly foe Drexel. UMass had an ugly showing in Orlando, losing to UCF by 17. Meanwhile, Fordham is stretching the definition of mid-major after a pair of opening-weekend losses.
Team of the week: Dayton. On Friday, I openly wondered if Dayton’s offense would be good enough for the Flyers to become an elite team, rather than just a very solid top-40 team. Early returns are propitious. Last season, only two NCAA Tournament teams — Cleveland State and Morgan State — had worse team eFGs than Brian Gregory’s club, and Dayton was also poor at taking care of the ball, but both of those numbers turned around on Saturday.
|
Poss |
PPP |
eFG |
Turn |
Reb |
FTR |
| Creighton |
73 |
1.10 |
0.552 |
0.178 |
0.254 |
0.276 |
| Dayton |
73 |
1.23 |
0.558 |
0.123 |
0.364 |
0.188 |
There’s a caveat. Creighton is not a very good defensive team, ranking 113th in the nation in defensive efficiency last season. It is strange, though, that the two defensive areas where Creighton is most proficient — forcing turnovers and holding opposing shooters to low percentages — were where Dayton flourished. The Bluejays were primarily a good 3-point defense team last year, and they did hold Dayton to just 33.3 percent. On the other hand, the Flyers still made nine 3-pointers and 59.5 percent of 2-pointers. Chris Wright shined with 26 points on 83.3 percent eFG. Read More »
Posted in Mid-Majors, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Alabama, Atlantic-10, Boston College, Brian Gregory, Central Florida, Chris Wright, Cleveland State, Cornell, Creighton, Dayton, Dereck Whittenburg, Derrick Favors, Devin Downey, Drexel, Duquesne, Fairfield, Fordham, Gani Lawal, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Holy Cross, Iowa, La Salle, Maine, Massachusetts, Mid-Majors, Morgan State, Nebraska, Phil Martelli, Rhode Island, Siena, South Carolina, St. Bonaventure, St. John's, St. Joseph's, St. Louis, Temple, Villanova
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November 15, 2009 –
by Brendon
In sum: It wasn’t a pretty weekend for the SEC West against small Northeast programs. After Auburn nearly fell to Niagara on Friday night, Mississippi State did lose to Rider. A day later, Cornell knocked off Alabama in Anthony Grant’s debut. As a whole, the league went 8-2, and, in the most highly anticipated game, Kentucky defeated Morehead State behind terrific play from freshman Eric Bledsoe and junior Patrick Patterson.
Team of the week: Mississippi. There is great popular support behind Andy Kennedy getting the Rebels to break through and make the NCAAs in this his fourth season, and their opening performance won’t weaken that support. Chris Warren was back and healthy. He didn’t shoot well (1-for-7 from deep), but he did have seven steals in a 92-64 win over a decent Arkansas-Little Rock team. Mississippi forced 22 turnovers and, as a result, attempted 22 more field goals than the Trojans. Senior DeAundre Cranston scored 21 points in just 21 minutes. Read More »
Posted in Reviews/Previews, SEC
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Tagged Alabama, Alcorn State, Andy Kennedy, Anthony Grant, Arkansas, Arkansas-Little Rock, Auburn, Chris Warren, Cornell, DeAundre Cranston, Eric Bledsoe, Georgia, Indiana, Jarvis Varnado, Kentucky, LaSalle, Louisville, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri State, Morehead State, Niagara, North Carolina State, Ohio State, Patrick Patterson, Providence, Rick Stansbury, Rider, Rotnei Clarke, Ryan Thompson, SEC, South Carolina, St. Mary's, Tennessee, UAB, UCF, Vanderbilt
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